England vs France - The Buildup

[Constantine]

Rather bold statement by someone who has a walking calamity in the middle of their own defense.

[JD nawrat]

26 minutes ago, kopsy101 said:

That's true, only as strong as your weakest and France have a real weakness at RB with Kounde. 

 

7 minutes ago, Constantine said:

Rather bold statement by someone who has a walking calamity in the middle of their own defense.

You're both right tbf. If France's main weakness is their RB, England's is their LCB. I'd argue RB is easier to expose than one of two CBs.

i also think the match-ups are equally, if not more, important. Giroud v Maguire doesn't give the same yikes as Foden v Koundé, for example. Maguire's weakness is against fast players, someone like Giroud who he doesn't have to be agile against suits him more than the likes of Mbappé himself who can exploit Maguire's clumsy feet and lack of concentration. If Maguire takes a poor touch, I'm not convinced Giroud is quick enough to capitalise. 

I think on paper, France have a better team/squad/setup, but it's marginal. I'd take England's best XI over France's, but you'll never see Southgate pick that best XI so France probably fancy their chances. But France are definitely beatable. I actually fancy England to win, but I'm not sure they will get past Portugal if they do as we all expect and beat Morocco. 

England v Portugal has the potential to be an amazing match-up. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by JD nawrat

[GunmaN1905]

7 minutes ago, Constantine said:

Rather bold statement by someone who has a walking calamity in the middle of their own defense.

Yeah, if England goes behind, it's more or less match over with their lack of pace at the back.

Walker has been horrible for his standards and is obviously not healthy, really tough matchup for him against Mbappe.

[Constantine]

14 minutes ago, JD nawrat said:

 

You're both right tbf. If France's main weakness is their RB, England's is their LCB. I'd argue RB is easier to expose than one of two CBs.

i also think the match-ups are equally, if not more, important. Giroud v Maguire doesn't give the same yikes as Foden v Koundé, for example. Maguire's weakness is against fast players, someone like Giroud who he doesn't have to be agile against suits him more than the likes of Mbappé himself who can exploit Maguire's clumsy feet and lack of concentration. If Maguire takes a poor touch, I'm not convinced Giroud is quick enough to capitalise. 

I think on paper, France have a better team/squad/setup, but it's marginal. I'd take England's best XI over France's, but you'll never see Southgate pick that best XI so France probably fancy their chances. But France are definitely beatable. I actually fancy England to win, but I'm not sure they will get past Portugal if they do as we all expect and beat Morocco. 

England v Portugal has the potential to be an amazing match-up. 

Giroud doesn't have to outrun Maguire, he just have to pull him out of position (easy enough to do) to allow Dembele free entry and one on one v Pickford.

And for all the talk about Walker containing Mbappe... I'm not sure he can do that in his current state. He had a lot of trouble with that Senegalese striker whose name escapes me right now... Mbappe will be the same, just dialed up to 11. (Edit: pretty much what Gunman said)

We'll see. I might be proven wrong. I have no horse in that race so here's hoping for a good game. Fun one, fitting the occasion.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Constantine

[XuluBak]

On paper, out of context (player vs player), I think France are comfortably the stronger side; however, both are considerably less than the sum of their parts. England, frankly, because of Southgate. France, I don't know if I'd call it a lack of leadership (although, maybe it's a bit that too), but there's an arrogance and lack of discipline. It cost them against Denmark in Euros. And it probably should've cost them against Denmark in the group stage as well. It's a team full of superstars that acts like a team full of superstars. There's no "glue guy," no one running through walls to help the other guy out. If they win, it's strictly on talent and execution. I'd say Spain and Belgium have a similar "feel." I don't question the individual commitment, but their team dynamics are lacking. 

That said, based on current rosters and what both sides have shown, I'd take France 6 out of 10. If Southgate changes how the midfield operates (i.e., Rice isn't isolated and hiding) and Walker is closer to fit than he looked against Senegal, then it's closer to 5-5, might even give England a slight advantage. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by XuluBak

[Pukey]

51 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Yeah, if England goes behind, it's more or less match over with their lack of pace at the back.

Walker has been horrible for his standards and is obviously not healthy, really tough matchup for him against Mbappe.

I think whoever scores first probably wins this

[Rob1981]

15 minutes ago, Pukey said:

I think whoever scores first probably wins this

Hahaha, have you watched England's tournaments before?  

We need to approach it like the Germany game at the Euros.  Keep it tight, let them have a bit of possession, don't over commit.  Then go and try and win it in the last half hour.

The last thing we want is another Italy 2020 / Croatia 2018 / Iceland 2016 / Portugal 2004 / France 2004 where we score early and then try and sit on a lead.

Said this last summer and I know it sounds counter-intutive... but we've got more chance of winning if it's 0-0 at half time then we have if we're 1-0 up but the game is already getting away from us.

[kopsy101]

1 hour ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Yeah, if England goes behind, it's more or less match over with their lack of pace at the back.

Walker has been horrible for his standards and is obviously not healthy, really tough matchup for him against Mbappe.

I think Walker will turn up with his mind set on neutralising Mbappe 1v1 because of the hype, and he could do. As long as he does the usual and ignores the other parts of defending, i'll be happy.  

[Pukey]

7 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

Hahaha, have you watched England's tournaments before?  

We need to approach it like the Germany game at the Euros.  Keep it tight, let them have a bit of possession, don't over commit.  Then go and try and win it in the last half hour.

The last thing we want is another Italy 2020 / Croatia 2018 / Iceland 2016 / Portugal 2004 / France 2004 where we score early and then try and sit on a lead.

Said this last summer and I know it sounds counter-intutive... but we've got more chance of winning if it's 0-0 at half time then we have if we're 1-0 up but the game is already getting away from us.

My point is still right if we go 1-0 with 20 minutes left

Nah I get you, we don't want to be trying to defend the lead for too long but I do think it will be cagey and 0-0 at half time anyway 

[The_jagster]

I did a detailed look through last time this was brought up, it is wishful thinking. We have given up leads whether we score early or relatively late.

And lost when being level relatively late on too. We just aren't good against big teams in recent history.

[pearcey_90]

3 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Hahaha, have you watched England's tournaments before?  

We need to approach it like the Germany game at the Euros.  Keep it tight, let them have a bit of possession, don't over commit.  Then go and try and win it in the last half hour.

The last thing we want is another Italy 2020 / Croatia 2018 / Iceland 2016 / Portugal 2004 / France 2004 where we score early and then try and sit on a lead.

Said this last summer and I know it sounds counter-intutive... but we've got more chance of winning if it's 0-0 at half time then we have if we're 1-0 up but the game is already getting away from us.

If we go ahead early in the game and do that again and have same result as others, there’s only one person to blame. Shouldn’t be repeating the same things over and over again.

Whatever we do, if it’s working and we go ahead, keep doing the same. 

[Coulthard's Jaw]

 

[skybluedave]

Kyle definitely has the mentality for the job. Whether he has the other attributes we'll see 

[Rebs]

Saw earlier that we're on ITV again, is that correct??? I thought we were gonna be on BBC from QF onward (if we got there).

[Lucas]

4 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Said this last summer and I know it sounds counter-intutive... but we've got more chance of winning if it's 0-0 at half time then we have if we're 1-0 up but the game is already getting away from us.

Yeah probably not too far wrong there. And yet with the way the team is set up to play we are very capable to be the first ones to score quite early into a game given our set piece game. Timing and mentality is everything. I think we struggle to retain possession against bigger sides but do well when countering. If the time in the game is right that works in our favour.

I'm still curious if we see 3 at the back at some point during the tournament or not still, particularly if we are trying to protect a lead late into a game.

 

4 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

The last thing we want is another Italy 2020 / Croatia 2018 / Iceland 2016 / Portugal 2004 / France 2004 where we score early and then try and sit on a lead.

 

Love that you basically managed to mention practically every tournament here in the last 20 years  

England way I suppose.

[Lucas]

1 minute ago, Rebs said:

Saw earlier that we're on ITV again, is that correct??? I thought we were gonna be on BBC from QF onward (if we got there).

BBC got first SF pick so went for that, while ITV got the R16 and QF. 

SF will be a record breaker for ratings so that's probably why BBC have gone for that. 

Saturday's game on ITV will draw pretty huge.

[Rebs]

4 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Hahaha, have you watched England's tournaments before?  

We need to approach it like the Germany game at the Euros.  Keep it tight, let them have a bit of possession, don't over commit.  Then go and try and win it in the last half hour.

The last thing we want is another Italy 2020 / Croatia 2018 / Iceland 2016 / Portugal 2004 / France 2004 where we score early and then try and sit on a lead.

Said this last summer and I know it sounds counter-intutive... but we've got more chance of winning if it's 0-0 at half time then we have if we're 1-0 up but the game is already getting away from us.

Man speaks sense, man knows.

[GunmaN1905]

39 minutes ago, pearcey_90 said:

If we go ahead early in the game and do that again and have same result as others, there’s only one person to blame. Shouldn’t be repeating the same things over and over again.

Whatever we do, if it’s working and we go ahead, keep doing the same. 

There's nothing I hate more in football than we took the lead too early remarks.

Coaches who consistently lose big matches after taking leads, with evenly matched teams playing, are just bad.

The first time I got mad at the early lead is bad thing was 2004, actually.

What was it, like 5th minute when we took the lead against England? And it ended 4-2, should've been like 7-1.

The so called analysts then talked about the lead coming too early, ffs.

Hated it ever since.

[skybluedave]

9 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Saturday's game on ITV will draw pretty huge.

Never understand how they work this out. So 20mill watched Senegal apparently. But I was in a bar with 100 plus people. How do they work it out. 

[Lucas]

8 minutes ago, skybluedave said:

Never understand how they work this out. So 20mill watched Senegal apparently. But I was in a bar with 100 plus people. How do they work it out. 

Panellists for BARB are used to represent household figures in the UK. I would assume that some weighting is then used to project the viewing figures across the country outside of households too (ie. in pubs), much like they will use the demographics of the panelists to work out the ratings in households across the country.

Its not going to be a completely accurate figure by any means, but this is basically just how polling works (political polls usually ask about half the figure of the amount of BARB panellists, most of the time).

[Tony85]

In theory both channels could show any game they want. They just choose to do it this way. There has been occasions where both channels showed an England game in the past. Back in the more competitive days where there was a big rivalry between the channels. 

[Rebs]

1 hour ago, skybluedave said:

Never understand how they work this out. So 20mill watched Senegal apparently. But I was in a bar with 100 plus people. How do they work it out. 

Spycams

[XuluBak]

2 hours ago, GunmaN1905 said:

There's nothing I hate more in football than we took the lead too early remarks.

Coaches who consistently lose big matches after taking leads, with evenly matched teams playing, are just bad.

The first time I got mad at the early lead is bad thing was 2004, actually.

What was it, like 5th minute when we took the lead against England? And it ended 4-2, should've been like 7-1.

The so called analysts then talked about the lead coming too early, ffs.

Hated it ever since.

There's no such thing as a bad lead. Such an utterly nonsensical idea. All things being equal, the team with the lead has all the advantages, at least until the moment where the trailing side acknowledges defeat is probably the most likely outcome, throws caution to the wind, and goes all-in to score the equalizer in the final moments. Even then, it's a low scoring sport for a reason. Random tangent to that point, the aggressiveness of pulling goalies in Hockey has changed drastically in recent years, and I wonder if that will follow in football. Not necessarily in WC knockouts, where the stakes are so high, but the sport as a whole is shockingly conservative at times. Maybe the analytics just haven't caught up yet? IDK. 

Quick Googling tells me the team that scores first wins somewhere between 60-70% of the time. That's a pretty damn good advantage. 

[Coulthard's Jaw]

Edited December 8, 2022 by Coulthard's Jaw

[Coulthard's Jaw]

 

[m_fenton]

I'm sure Leon Osman is just the man Walker needs tips from.

[oche balboa]

On 06/12/2022 at 13:26, Constantine said:

Now you're just being silly...

Yeah I am. I'm now thinking we will get beat by France now. 

[Rob1981]

13 hours ago, XuluBak said:

There's no such thing as a bad lead. Such an utterly nonsensical idea. All things being equal, the team with the lead has all the advantages

  All things are not equal, because one team has scored.

At the end of the day in a big knockout game you have 90 minutes to score a goal. If you concede in the first 10 minutes it doesn’t really change a lot. You still have 80 minutes to score a goal. But if you score in the first 10 minutes, potentially changes your whole gameplan. 

These games are super tight, often decided by the odd goal or settled in extra time or on penalties. At the business end of the competition you rarely get a winning margin of 2-3 goals. And if you’re not going to score multiple goals and run away with it, you don’t need to chase the first one straightaway.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Rob1981

[Coulthard's Jaw]

 

[Barry Cartman]

Everyone seems totally focused on Walker stopping Mbappe, and no one seems to be having nightmares about the chance of Mbappe just going over to the other side and playing against Luke Shaw 

[av3ry]

Has everyone forgotten about Greizmann and Dembele? Adrien Rabiot looks to have regained his form too, Theo Hernandez, rampaging left-back?

[Lucas]

I'd rather France worry about us on the counter and Jude tearing them a new one down the middle tbh.

[aggressive minor]

17 hours ago, skybluedave said:

Kyle definitely has the mentality for the job. Whether he has the other attributes we'll see 

I don’t really get the constant swiping at Walker, he’s quality.

There is a concern over his fitness of course. 

[skybluedave]

I wasn't swiping at him? I like the way he talks, he backs himself. You can tell he has a strong mentality. 

[kopsy101]

59 minutes ago, Barry Cartman said:

Everyone seems totally focused on Walker stopping Mbappe, and no one seems to be having nightmares about the chance of Mbappe just going over to the other side and playing against Luke Shaw 

I rate Shaw when he's fit, I don't see much difference. The real worry is that if he comes up against McGuire at any point.

[Coulthard's Jaw]

[Bootador]

We'll be fine, I'm not worried.

[Coulthard's Jaw]

25 minutes ago, Bootador said:

We'll be fine, I'm not worried.

As the great Andros Townsend once said, I am bricking it.

[Citizen Sandman]

What I like about mpappe is he can occasionally do a really **** shot but laughs about it then scores two anyway 

[craigcwwe]

7 hours ago, Barry Cartman said:

Everyone seems totally focused on Walker stopping Mbappe, and no one seems to be having nightmares about the chance of Mbappe just going over to the other side and playing against Luke Shaw 

Harsh on Shaw tbh.

[Anthrax Dave]

I genuinely think that this could be considered a "World Cup Classic" in 20+ years time. Some sort of 3-3 draw, before a VAR ballsup in extra time.

Would fancy us to win if it goes into Extra Time because of what we have on the bench. My worry is that we will go 1-0 down early and get punished (by a few goals) late on when chasing.

 

5 Live spent an hour literally talking abot Mbappe-Walker. However, I think if Declan Rice has it in him, he will be the driving force behind an England win. Our midfield is stronger than theirs, and Rice will be key.

[Ackter]

Would be hilarious after all this talk if mbappe just played on the right wouldn't it?

[noikeee]

I have a feeling you guys are going to win. Mbappe is in insane form and it is entirely possible he might decide the game again, and they have several other dangerous players that are clicking well together, but France are still vulnerable. Australia opened the score against them and they looked rattled for a while, Denmark managed to equalise, and Poland looked genuinely on top of the match for a brief period. England is better than all these teams, more solid in defence, more talented in attack.

[HyväSuomi]

It feels obvious to say this is a game to be cautious, not to leave any spaces for France to exploit in transition and not to let the backline (Shaw/Maguire especially) get isolated 1v1. Even if Walker (presumably with the assistance of Henderson and Saka) keeps Mbappe quiet then Giroud, Dembele or Griezmann can just as easily find a way. Griezmann in my eyes is just as important to France as Mbappe is, so I hope England stick with the 4-3-3 to keep the midfield numbers to try to nullify him in his deeper role. England will be as reliant on Rice and Henderson putting in big performances just as much as Kyle Walker. 

I see two possible weak spots in what I presume will be France’s starting XI. Kounde, as mentioned by others on this thread, at right-back is one. If England on the counter use Bellingham’s ball progression and Kane’s passing range to find Foden on the left, there could be some joy there. We’ve also seen a few Lloris calamities down the years. His dropping the ball almost onto the head of Lewandowski reminded me of a few times he’s made a mess of balls into the box: against Man City earlier this year, Liverpool 2019, Chelsea 2018 etc. That could be a set piece exploit for England (though there is probably more to beating the world champions  than simply sticking the big lads on the goalkeeper at set pieces ).

 

[Coulthard's Jaw]

France boss Deschamps says "England have no weaknesses" in news conference

[The_jagster]

"Many 'ave guessed, ultimately I respect everyone" he added

[Coulthard's Jaw]

 

[skybluedave]

Absolutely bricking it now already 

[Coulthard's Jaw]

[aggressive minor]

40 minutes ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

Better do it then Gareth 💪