Brexit and FM17

[Lord Rowell]

4 hours ago, Lord Rowell said:

A question from me - will the game, if "hard Brexit" occurs in the FM virtual world, simulate a permanent devaluation of £sterling, with consequences that foreign (if you're managing in UK) players become more expensive, and that UK players become cheaper / more attractive to foreign clubs?

 

Finally a more open-question, what else do people think the Brexit impact will simulate in FM17, and indeed what would you like to see?

Trying to get this back to topic from my own OP. Can anyone answer the first question?

What would people like to see re. the 2nd?

What do people think the impact will be on you as a manager in FM?

[Per Annum]

Just now, 13xForever said:

I dont mind after initial disgust.

Surely Hard Brexit must/will have a pretty low % hit rate.

Miles has said he thinks its most likely option.

Don't forget though that in-game hard brexit isn't just one result, it is a tree of results.

Hard Brexit in-game could be instant WP applications, it could be 4 non-UK players or it could be 17 non-UK players or presumably everything in between. 

If it was 17 it wouldn't really affect a game other than stopping people from playing like IRL Chelsea, which is fine by me!

[JoshuaMPearce]

OK, thank you the four of you!

[Welshace]

@JoshuaMPearce Do you want a fifth? it's possible! 

[Per Annum]

Just now, Lord Rowell said:

Trying to get this back to topic from my own OP. Can anyone answer the first question?

What would people like to see re. the 2nd?

What do people think the impact will be on you as a manager in FM?

I think for the game to do proper economic considerations is unrealistic.

I think it is realistic to assume that a super hard brexit of 4 non-uk plus instant WP applications, would potentially weaken UK teams in Europe, leading to dropping coefficients, dropping league reputation, lower TV money and thefore lower wages and a cycle of decline. Fine by me as long as fairly rare, which it seemingly would be.

[Double0Seven]

As this moment it seems like people are already disliking a option that will only affect a small amount of the game and is realistic. Are you sure you don't want the game to be more realistic? You are playing a simulation after all. And for all those who really think it will ruin the game, well then refund the game if you can and show us? I doubt anyone will only because of 'brexit'. People asking for innovation>get innovation>complain. Can never please them it seems.

[herne79]

2 minutes ago, Lord Rowell said:

Trying to get this back to topic from my own OP. Can anyone answer the first question?

What would people like to see re. the 2nd?

What do people think the impact will be on you as a manager in FM?

I think that's a good point about UK players at non-UK clubs.  Will they require work permits / be subject to EU and league rules for "non-EU" players?  I imagine they would do.  Someone get on twitter and ask Miles !

[warlock]

3 hours ago, herne79 said:

 

[13xForever]

4 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

Miles has said he thinks its most likely option.

Don't forget though that in-game hard brexit isn't just one result, it is a tree of results.

Hard Brexit in-game could be instant WP applications, it could be 4 non-UK players or it could be 17 non-UK players or presumably everything in between. 

If it was 17 it wouldn't really affect a game other than stopping people from playing like IRL Chelsea, which is fine by me!

If i end up with 4 non-UK players i will be packing my bags and off to manage in Holland

[nickdc]

Also, I would frankly love if English football, even European football went to three foreigners only rule. Europe has reduced itself to the same 8 or so teams in the CL QF every year and everyone else, from clubs to leagues become second rate after the EPL and a select others abroad.

[Lord Rowell]

3 minutes ago, herne79 said:

I think that's a good point about UK players at non-UK clubs.  Will they require work permits / be subject to EU and league rules for "non-EU" players?  I imagine they would do.  Someone get on twitter and ask Miles !

Ouch! Yes! You are right

[warlock]

I'm struggling to see just how great an impact this is going to have. Most clubs below the Championship are unlikely to be affected directly. The elite clubs will continue to sign whoever they want (just as its already easier to bypass WP issues if you're at the elite level). The only real effect will be on clubs at the lower levels of the Premiership and upper levels of the Championship, where a comparatively affordable foreign star can make a big impact, but if they're allowed three or four foreign imports that doesn't seem like a big change from the current situation.

A potentially significant effect will be an increase in Premiership clubs plundering lower-league academies to cream off the potential talent, which is already happening anyway (see Brentford closing its academy for that very reason).

I'm just not seeing the potential for "game-breaking" effects that many are predicting.

[Per Annum]

Just now, nickdc said:

Also, I would frankly love if English football, even European football went to three foreigners only rule. Europe has reduced itself to the same 8 or so teams in the CL QF every year and everyone else, from clubs to leagues become second rate after the EPL and a select others abroad.

I did once play a very interesting custom DB where each nation had its rules changed to it could only have players from that nation. Politically questionable but in-game was fun for a while. 
It did result in inflated fees for middling English players

[phnompenhandy]

5 minutes ago, Lord Rowell said:

Trying to get this back to topic from my own OP.

What do people think the impact will be on you as a manager in FM?

If English clubs are forced to have mostly English players, my assumption is that the transfer prices and wage demands of English (be they world class or utterly mediocre) players will go through the roof. Average players would be even less inclined to play abroad since their salaries and playing time would be far better in England. The quality of football ought to decline in the English upper levels and thus Premier League football would become a less attractive viewing experience globally; thus TV money should come crashing down causing club financial crises aplenty.

[evertonmarc]

Just now, phnompenhandy said:

If English clubs are forced to have mostly English players, my assumption is that the transfer prices and wage demands of English (be they world class or utterly mediocre) players will go through the roof. Average players would be even less inclined to play abroad since their salaries and playing time would be far better in England. The quality of football ought to decline in the English upper levels and thus Premier League football would become a less attractive viewing experience globally; thus TV money should come crashing down causing club financial crises aplenty.

That may well happen in real life.......

[Lord Rowell]

6 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

I think for the game to do proper economic considerations is unrealistic.

I think it is realistic to assume that a super hard brexit of 4 non-uk plus instant WP applications, would potentially weaken UK teams in Europe, leading to dropping coefficients, dropping league reputation, lower TV money and thefore lower wages and a cycle of decline. Fine by me as long as fairly rare, which it seemingly would be.

Agree 100% with your first point, other than something very simple, single, and linear. To write an economic simulator would be way beyond SI and the interactions between different variables would have all sorts of unforseen consequences.

Re. your 2nd point - spot on. Just go back to the early 1990s for evidence of that, esp. when IIRC that Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish players were also classed as foreign.

[treble_yell_:-)]

1 minute ago, phnompenhandy said:

If English clubs are forced to have mostly English players, my assumption is that the transfer prices and wage demands of English (be they world class or utterly mediocre) players will go through the roof. Average players would be even less inclined to play abroad since their salaries and playing time would be far better in England. The quality of football ought to decline in the English upper levels and thus Premier League football would become a less attractive viewing experience globally; thus TV money should come crashing down causing club financial crises aplenty.

I do wonder if the the game is smart enough to see prices for English players inflate or if the AI will still just offer what they normally will (and what knock on effects that will have)

 

Obviously the Alpha testers will have robustly tested this

[Swillo]

One thing I will say, its generating headlines and therefore achieving maximum publicity for Fm beta release tonight. Well done SI marketing team 

[nickdc]

Just now, Per Annum said:

I did once play a very interesting custom DB where each nation had its rules changed to it could only have players from that nation. Politically questionable but in-game was fun for a while. 
It did result in inflated fees for middling English players

Italy used to do this in the days of CH4 showing football Italia. Though we have amazing teams in the Prem its worth noting that it meant just as much, if not more to clubs when they won the title before the foreign influx.

The talent would be shared across Europe, I mean, Ajax are a joke and Red Star are even worse for example, but when all the top players flood into EPL its no surprise.

And if the EPL clubs were 8 Brits and three foreigners, yes the quality would be down, but the competition would mean so much more.

Maybe there would be less money coming in from abroad, but so what, it all ends up in the agents hands anyway. And ticket prices may go down!

[Just-Wool]

7 minutes ago, 13xForever said:

If i end up with 4 non-UK players i will be packing my bags and off to manage in Holland

That's of course if they let you in, not being from the EU and all

[Lord Rowell]

Just now, treble_yell_:-) said:

I do wonder if the the game is smart enough to see prices for English players inflate or if the AI will still just offer what they normally will (and what knock on effects that will have)

 

Obviously the Alpha testers will have robustly tested this

I think the "value" may not change - possibly tough to code.

However, in the real market i.e. what you're gonna pay, you might find yourself in more bidding wars so in reality, what you'll pay for a player will be higher in some situations.

[pheelf]

18 minutes ago, Lord Rowell said:

That's not how I would design that aspect of the game and I doubt SI will have either. I posted on this earlier on (big thread I know!). They will very likely have spoken with politicians, political scientists at universities and so on, who will have given them an estimate of the likely chances of each scenario occurring and then built those probability forecasts into the game.

That's a fair point and I expect that they have probably done some due diligence. The situation as I see it is that what will determine the type of Brexit is the other remaining members of the EU and what they are willing to accept as the terms of the withdrawal. So unless SI has gone and asked representatives of every other state in the EU what type of Brexit they would be willing to vote through or not, how did they arrive at their probabilities of what is likely or not? This is a minefield

[nickdc]

4 minutes ago, Lord Rowell said:

Agree 100% with your first point, other than something very simple, single, and linear. To write an economic simulator would be way beyond SI and the interactions between different variables would have all sorts of unforseen consequences.

Re. your 2nd point - spot on. Just go back to the early 1990s for evidence of that, esp. when IIRC that Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish players were also classed as foreign.

In European competition, not in league matches.

[Lord Rowell]

Just now, nickdc said:

In European competition, not in league matches.

That's what I meant

[enigmatic]

20 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

Miles has said he thinks its most likely option.

Don't forget though that in-game hard brexit isn't just one result, it is a tree of results.

Hard Brexit in-game could be instant WP applications, it could be 4 non-UK players or it could be 17 non-UK players or presumably everything in between. 

If it was 17 it wouldn't really affect a game other than stopping people from playing like IRL Chelsea, which is fine by me!

If it's 17 but you can't get work permits for Europeans until they're international regulars worth £30m it'll be a pretty big deal...

And of course it's not just that scenario that needs testing: there are potential problems if it's four, and half  the AI managers end up mostly playing their youth team. Or if it's nine and the AI managers are far too reluctant to sign non British players even though they really shouldn't be. Or if it's seven and squads look pretty similar to now but the AI copes with player restrictions by playing players ludicrously out of position. 

Of course FM has dealt with player restrictions for a while but not such a wide range of possibilities in a league structure as large, rich and significant as the English one.

That's one of the issues, and it'll take a lot of testing to sort out. Which is one of the main reasons why the option to turn it off (or turn off specific Brexit options suspected of unbalancing the game, assuming the FM transfer markets are pretty robust in general) would be a good idea.

[Double0Seven]

Stupid question, does the game account for inflation? 

[Per Annum]

Miles just said on twitter Scottish Independence is single figure % chance in-game. 
 

There is therefore now no need for anyone to post their own thoughts on its IRL chances.

[nickdc]

10 minutes ago, phnompenhandy said:

If English clubs are forced to have mostly English players, my assumption is that the transfer prices and wage demands of English (be they world class or utterly mediocre) players will go through the roof. Average players would be even less inclined to play abroad since their salaries and playing time would be far better in England. The quality of football ought to decline in the English upper levels and thus Premier League football would become a less attractive viewing experience globally; thus TV money should come crashing down causing club financial crises aplenty.

I'd imagine the wages would maintain the wage/income ratio.

Yes the quality of play would decline, but perhaps increase for English players overall.

If TV money comes crashing down, good.

[phnompenhandy]

1 minute ago, Double0Seven said:

Stupid question, does the game account for inflation? 

It never has done, but more and more parts of the game are becoming dynamic, and inflation would come under that category, so it could be in FM17.

[Some Guy!]

A fall from grace for the English Premier League would be an interesting outcome in game, and give an interesting foreshadowing of what England is currently marching toward. 

[dan_lcfc]

Interesting to see what people think of this. I'm  planning on managing San Marino so I don't expect it to affect me either way. 

 

I do do wonder for people who think a hard brexit will ruin their game, what they will do if it occurs IRL?

 

As a long save player I am equally excited to see how a hard brexit (which as I alluded to won't affect me and as such is the outcome I will hope for) effects the EPL in terms of the AI squad building etc

[KUBI]

The beta is out, now you can play the game...

[nickdc]

19 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

I think for the game to do proper economic considerations is unrealistic.

I think it is realistic to assume that a super hard brexit of 4 non-uk plus instant WP applications, would potentially weaken UK teams in Europe, leading to dropping coefficients, dropping league reputation, lower TV money and thefore lower wages and a cycle of decline. Fine by me as long as fairly rare, which it seemingly would be.

Yeah that would be a shame for the same teams that qualify each year. They don't represent me or my team so tough luck to them.

 

That said, come on Leicester!

[Welshace]

Might want to stop the debate and restart steam....

[phnompenhandy]

One thing this feature will affect (and I'll admit I've never had any interest in using it myself) is that league table that compares your performance as an FM manager with other players. Any comparisons would be a nonsense when different Brexit outcomes are in play.

[phnompenhandy]

1 minute ago, KUBI said:

The beta is out, now you can play the game...

Yeah, not all of us 

 

But then again, it is time for bed ....

[Lord Rowell]

Well maybe this thread will go quieter for a while now (not least because I'll be playing soon)

[Double0Seven]

2 minutes ago, Lord Rowell said:

Well maybe this thread will go quieter for a while now (not least because I'll be playing soon)

 Nah mate its time for the people who complain already about a feature despite havent tested it extensively and compared with older versions of FM. As is tradition

[warlock]

9 minutes ago, Welshace said:

Might want to stop the debate and restart steam....

Post of the day!

[Per Annum]

Miles just posted something on twitter implying visas for managers are a feature, depending on what route your save goes. Interesting

[Ruh Roh]

I've seen "inflation" in old FM games, where if you create an American league, give the clubs a ton of money and set a harsh foreign player cap, Freddy Adu gets paid 50k/week because there's nothing available. Not sure it really played out that way in 16 though - China would be a good comparison point.

The thing with the hard Brexit scenario - and this is a complaint I bet many people will end up raising - is that I can see them loosening the work permit regime across the board. Not dramatically, not to the point where League One clubs can sign Spaniards, but to the point where quality players from big leagues like Payet/Kante (and equivalents from South America/Africa w/o EU nationality as well) could come over

[Spurs08]

I'm a huge, huge fan of this feature and for me it really encapsulates the direction the FM career mode should be going in. I'm also hopeful it means SI really believe the transfer market is balanced this year, since they're prepared for the game to chuck a gigantic spanner into the works partway in! It does seem like a great PR stunt too though. I'm very political and was going through a Twitter feed I have set up for politics news at lunchtime and saw this being discussed, multiple times - loads of free advertising

[Nonlondoner]

Genius, this absolutely should be included. If you don't like the ramifications of Brexit in FM then you need to realise this is going to happen in real life too. And if that seems unappealing, you've got a few months left to hassle your MP before it becomes legally binding. 

 

 

[Number seven]

This must be the best new addition to FM 17, I was planning to wait until the january transfer update patch to buy the game, but because of this I have to buy the game on release!

[noikeee]

45 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

Miles just posted something on twitter implying visas for managers are a feature, depending on what route your save goes. Interesting

Wait, what?  Okay, now that's flat out bonkers. I never needed a visa to manage in the many worldwide nations in the game before...

So if you set your nationality as English you may be refused a visa to manage in Europe? 

[AndySummers]

Positive addition.

FM can be very linear at times and a dimension which adds strategy, pre-planning and a random element is not a bad thing. It adds a real dynamic to a UK save; whether to focus on youth and home-grown talent, whether to risk ploughing your funds into foreign talent knowing you might have to alter your philosophy. It also forces managers out of their comfort zone and to rethink their plans on the fly.

[Mr Adam]

56 minutes ago, noikeee said:

Wait, what?  Okay, now that's flat out bonkers. I never needed a visa to manage in the many worldwide nations in the game before...

So if you set your nationality as English you may be refused a visa to manage in Europe? 

Can see a second nationality on my horizon

[ChrisBuxton]

Would managers and other backroom staff require a work permit?

[decapitated]

1 hour ago, Ruh Roh said:

 

The thing with the hard Brexit scenario - and this is a complaint I bet many people will end up raising - is that I can see them loosening the work permit regime across the board. Not dramatically, not to the point where League One clubs can sign Spaniards, but to the point where quality players from big leagues like Payet/Kante (and equivalents from South America/Africa w/o EU nationality as well) could come over

I can see this being a possibility as well. I think there should be a possibility in the game for a loosening of work permits for example meaning it becomes easier to sign Latin Americans and Africans and harder to sign europeans. Imagine a system where if a player has played a certain amount of games in so many seasons in leagues or for clubs with a certain continental coefficients ( as well as the international caps system already in place for the smaller leagues). You'd end up with less Scandinavians and more Brazilians and Argentinians in the EPL. It's unlikely, yeah, but more like than the only 4 non-uk players rule. After all, the rationale behind a hard brexit is to stop low skilled workers emigrating and encourage highly skilled migrants which footballers would surely come under.

[ajw10]

It's really frustrating reading so many people go with the whole "if you don't like it, don't buy it" line. No ****.

This is the only football manager game out there. This absurd Brexit feature is going to directly my enjoyment of the game. So basically I can either manage abroad (which I have little to no interest in) or gamble that my long term Arsenal save will not be completely ruined 2-10 seasons in. So either I don't play a football manager game or I'll potentially have a long term save ruined. Seems fair.

If you love this feature then fine, go nuts. But at least give those that don't want what is purely guesswork a chance to turn it off ( at the very least guarantee a "soft Brexit".