2026 changes: Potential Group Stage for the 48-team format

[SouthCoastRed]

Only drawback with 6 games is that you’d have to listen to Pougatch all ****ing day long

[Coulthard's Jaw]

32 minutes ago, SouthCoastRed said:

Only drawback with 6 games is that you’d have to listen to Pougatch all ****ing day long

That ****ing face he makes everytime he introduces the quiz.

[The_jagster]

In general there is so much football on that I have basically ignored the studio pundits, would much rather listen to journalists for the nations playing that you get on 5live.

Thought Wright was good on the Brazil match tbf

Edited November 28, 2022 by The_jagster

[pearcey_90]

49 minutes ago, PaulHartman71 said:

To be fair could they theoretically have: 

12pm kick off

2.30pm kick off 

5pm kick off 

7.30 pm kick off 

10pm kickoff 

Lot of games kick off at 10PM in Spain anyway 

Europe in summer, no reason why they can’t do a 11am kick off. 11/1:30/4/6:30/9

Just way European summers are going, they could be some HOT games the 1:30/4. 

[Wolf_pd]

13 hours ago, georginho_juventusygr said:

2030 will be subscription-based. Two games will be broadcast at the same time. If you want to see the match with bigger teams, you have to pay slightly more.

Not expecting it yet in the Netherlands. Still a case of open network for tournament with significant importance.

[oche balboa]

How about 40 teams? would that work better 

[Coulthard's Jaw]

At the moment with the World Cup you can just about watch everything if you really want to, when you start getting up to 5-6 games a day, of questionable quality, I don't think many people would do that. Would become like the other World Cups in other sports where you basically ignore the initial stages and then only really focus on it when the big knockout matches start.

And maybe that makes the most amount of money for FIFA, I dunno, but would be a shame imo.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Coulthard's Jaw

[pearcey_90]

Think if they can’t get a bi-annual World Cup pushed through, more teams and more games will be the fallback. Got to get that TV revenue increased.

I’m no expert, but I’d assume there must be a limit where the money in for 64 games, increase that to 80+, won’t bring in much more surely?

Either way, I have 0% trust that Gianni over this decade will make changes that improves the World Cup.

[The_jagster]

Always a chance I'm wrong but I don't think broadcasters will just blindly pay loads more for more matches. ITV (or any other worldwide commercial broadcaster) will know what audience they get for Costa Rica-Senegal and if every team plays the same maximum number of games then the big guns will not play any more often.

Raw total is probably higher but fee per game takes a hit.

Edited November 29, 2022 by The_jagster

[pearcey_90]

1 minute ago, The_jagster said:

Always a chance I'm wrong but I don't think broadcasters will just blindly pay loads more for more matches. ITV will know what audience they get for Costa Rica-Senegal and if every team plays the same maximum number of games then the big guns will not play any more often.

Raw total is probably higher but fee per game takes a hit.

Especially when they need to shove a few games to ITV4, to not disrupt Emerdale too much. 

[Coulthard's Jaw]

12 minutes ago, pearcey_90 said:

Especially when they need to shove a few games to ITV4, to not disrupt Emerdale too much. 

Soaps get very poor ratings these days, you will note that both channels are happy to disrupt all their regular shows to broadcast the World Cup.

[The_jagster]

1 minute ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

Soaps get very poor ratings these days, you will note that both channels are happy to disrupt all their regular shows to broadcast the World Cup.

Barb rating are mad, Strictly and GBBO blow everything else out of the water. Then it's Doc Martin (had no idea this was that big) and the soaps in the low millions next highest.

[Coulthard's Jaw]

I have no idea what Doc Martin is  

[oche balboa]

1 hour ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

I have no idea what Doc Martin is  

Martin Clunes is in it...That's has much as i know 

[Coulthard's Jaw]

Christ I thought they stopped making that 20 years ago.

[Rob1981]

Yeah, it's 80 games in 2026 instead of 64... but remember none of the final round group games will need to be played simultaneously.

At the moment we 'lose' eight games from the TV schedule because a bigger game is already on.

So in TV terms, you are adding 16 more games in 2026 but you are actually creating 24 new TV slots.

56 TV slots up to 80 is an increase of over 40%... plus you've got another sixteen markets that can cheer on a home nation

Of course they are making a ****ton of extra money

[Coulthard's Jaw]

16 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

Yeah, it's 80 games in 2026 instead of 64... but remember none of the final round group games will need to be played simultaneously.

At the moment we 'lose' eight games from the TV schedule because a bigger game is already on.

So in TV terms, you are adding 16 more games in 2026 but you are actually creating 24 new TV slots.

56 TV slots up to 80 is an increase of over 40%... plus you've got another sixteen markets that can cheer on a home nation

Of course they are making a ****ton of extra money

Also pretty much zero chance countries like USA miss out from now on, will be a huge money spinner.

[decapitated]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gijón

Quote

The "Disgrace of Gijón" is the name given to a 1982 FIFA World Cup football match played between West Germany and Austria at the El Molinón stadium in Gijón, Spain, on 25 June 1982. The match was the last game of the first-round Group 2, with Algeria and Chile having played the day before. With the outcome of that match already decided and known, a win by one or two goals for West Germany at the expense of Austria would result in both West Germany and Austria qualifying instead of Algeria, which had defeated West Germany in the first game. The Germans scored the only goal within the first 10 minutes of the match, which progressively deteriorated towards near standstill in the second half.[1] Spectators of the match accused both teams of fixing the outcome, although FIFA ruled that neither team had broken any rules.

As a result of this, and similar events at the previous World Cup in Argentina, FIFA revised the group system for future tournaments, so that the final two games in each group would be played simultaneously. In German, the match is known as Nichtangriffspakt von Gijón (lit. "Non-aggression pact of Gijón") or Schande von Gijón (lit. "Disgrace of Gijón"), while in Algeria it is called فضيحة خيخون (faḍīḥat Khīkhūn, "Scandal of Gijón"); it is also satirically referred to as the Anschluss (in reference to the annexation of Austria by Germany in 1938).[

I'm worried we'll see some something along these lines with 3 team groups.

 

[HopOnBaby]

One of the commentators on this afternoon's games mentioned that there will be no draws in the 2026 group stage - all games will go to penalties if drawn after 90 minutes.

[Mr Wallin]

20 minutes ago, HopOnBaby said:

One of the commentators on this afternoon's games mentioned that there will be no draws in the 2026 group stage - all games will go to penalties if drawn after 90 minutes.

That has been a suggestion but there haven't been an official decision on it (or the competitions format at all) yet.

[HopOnBaby]

2 hours ago, Mr Wallin said:

That has been a suggestion but there haven't been an official decision on it (or the competitions format at all) yet.

He seemed pretty certain about it, but we'll see what occurs. Will feel a little odd - very 90s MLS. That said, if they make it a 35-yard-shootout, I'm up for it.

[Rob1981]

At one point they were talking about 1 point for a draw with penalty defeat, 2 points for a draw with penalty win, 3 points for an actual win.

Suppose it's to try and add some more jeopardy to the three-team group stage so that two teams can't collude and put the other one out.  Although whenever one team has already finished when the other two play I don't see that it can make that much difference.

I think they are now doing penalty shootouts like this in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, although I've taken no notice of it whatsoever since they let the B teams in.

[PaulHartman71]

To be fair if they’re actually doing penalties for any draw in the group stage then that makes the 3 team group thing much more palatable and exciting IMO 

[mrw072]

On 28/11/2022 at 08:32, ginnybob said:

Hate the groups 

Teams going home after 2 games of a World Cup is ****. Sure we have teams that can't qualify after 2 games this tournament, but at least they get another game for their fans to enjoy. 

Then you have the likely negativity in matches as already mentioned.

Awful setup 

Years ago they had 3 team groups, and England went out without losing in the tournament.  What i'd expect is a lot of drawn games.  I agree its potentially a bad set-up.

[Peter G]

3 Team Groups will be an absolute snooze fest

32 teams is fine

CONMEBOL Qualifying would be utterly pointless with the 48 one. 

If they must increase, go to 40.

8 * 5 = Top 2 in each go through

 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Peter G

[Lucas]

48 teams should be groups of 6: 

Winners go through and a bye to the last 16.

2nd and 3rd go into a knockout round against teams in adjacent groups

Then have the final 16. 

I'm not that bothered about the extra 3 games, extends the WC by another week or so but I think that's better than the farce of 3 team groups.

[GunmaN1905]

32 minutes ago, Lucas said:

48 teams should be groups of 6: 

Winners go through and a bye to the last 16.

2nd and 3rd go into a knockout round against teams in adjacent groups

Then have the final 16. 

I'm not that bothered about the extra 3 games, extends the WC by another week or so but I think that's better than the farce of 3 team groups.

They can just make it so that only group winners go through, with first and second seed team matchup being played on the final matchday.

8 games for finalists instead of 7, everyone wins.

Bad teams get to play more games, top teams get more games to prove their level.

9 matches would be too many, I think, with top2 advancing.

[Peter G]

1 hour ago, Lucas said:

48 teams should be groups of 6: 

Winners go through and a bye to the last 16.

2nd and 3rd go into a knockout round against teams in adjacent groups

Then have the final 16. 

I'm not that bothered about the extra 3 games, extends the WC by another week or so but I think that's better than the farce of 3 team groups.

Yeah, that would also work. 3 Team Groups would just be dreadful

[oche balboa]

So the World Cup is being like the Papa Johns. 

 

Only Knockout Football should their be a Penalty Shootout and not in Group/League stages of any competition let alone the World Cup

[Lucas]

2 hours ago, GunmaN1905 said:

9 matches would be too many, I think, with top2 advancing.

If you don't have meaningful games towards the end then it loses value, hence my idea. If only the top team in each group went through you'd have a vast majority of gameday 4 and 5 games being meaningless.

[Constantine]

@GunmaN1905Haven't we had in the former state, in the 80's, similar system to this newly proposed by FIFA, if there's a tie, the game's going to penalties. It was before my time but maybe you know a bit more about it, how long it lasted, why it was scrapped, etc...?

[GunmaN1905]

8 minutes ago, Constantine said:

@GunmaN1905Haven't we had in the former state, in the 80's, similar system to this newly proposed by FIFA, if there's a tie, the game's going to penalties. It was before my time but maybe you know a bit more about it, how long it lasted, why it was scrapped, etc...?

I'm not old enough to remember, but I think there was something like it way back, I think 70s.

Can't work out, a bad idea.

[HopOnBaby]

How about taking inspiration from the Champions League and going for a Swiss system?

Eight groups of six, with 12 top seeds, 12 second seeds, 12 third and 12 fourth, i.e. two from each pot per group.

Then you play three games about one team from each of the other pots. So, if you're a top seed, you'd play one of the seconds, one of the thirds and one of the fourths.

Once each team has played their three games, the top of the table go straight through, with second playing third, i.e. 2A v 3B, 3B v 2A, etc 

From there, straight knockout. Eight games instead of seven for 16 of the teams, but hopefully the final matchday should still have plenty riding on it.

[Gricehead]

Surely we can leverage a Swiss model group stage into this somehow, for maximum lols. 

Edit: dammit.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Gricehead

[grff]

Not sure if posted but found a study done on the 3 group system...

https://www.sloansportsconference.com/research-papers/risk-of-collusion-will-groups-of-3-ruin-the-fifa-world-cup

[HopOnBaby]

22 minutes ago, Gricehead said:

Surely we can leverage a Swiss model group stage into this somehow, for maximum lols. 

Edit: dammit.

Never fear, I'll always aim to bring the lols, Gricey lad.

 

 

[error username in use]

3 team groups would have to scrap draws

id also class a 0-0 as a game that earns 0pts

 

[PMLF]

 

[Rafalution]

On 30/11/2022 at 14:08, Lucas said:

48 teams should be groups of 6: 

Winners go through and a bye to the last 16.

2nd and 3rd go into a knockout round against teams in adjacent groups

Then have the final 16. 

I'm not that bothered about the extra 3 games, extends the WC by another week or so but I think that's better than the farce of 3 team groups.

byes are awful because you have teams waiting a week to have a game

[forameuss]

Scenes if this whole 3-team-group stuff was just a means to get the tournament up to 64 instead. 

[Lucas]

1 hour ago, PMLF said:

 

They've almost got it. Just go with my idea  

35 minutes ago, Rafalution said:

byes are awful because you have teams waiting a week to have a game

But if they just played 5 games in just over 2 weeks, having a 5 or 6 day break til the next game for them would be welcomed, tbh.

[Rafalution]

if its only 5 or 6 days then you've got the 2nd and 3rd place teams playing 5 games in just over 2 weeks, and the playing 2 more with only 2 or 3 days in between. thats not how you get quality football

[Lucas]

8 minutes ago, Rafalution said:

if its only 5 or 6 days then you've got the 2nd and 3rd place teams playing 5 games in just over 2 weeks, and the playing 2 more with only 2 or 3 days in between. thats not how you get quality football

Sure, if you play the same XI. 

But there's squads, and they can rotate. Just like clubs do.

[Rafalution]

clubs do do that, and there performance in those games suffers due to it. just look at how much better teams often do when they aren't in europe for a season. its the world cup - don't we want the best performances we can get rather than just cramming as many games as we can in?

[Rob1981]

Maybe 12 groups of four is workable after all.  The 'double Euros' format where you have the top two and 8/12 third place teams going through to a R32.

The pushback has always been that it increases the length of the tournament and finalists have to play 8 games instead of 7.  But maybe they just need to get going quicker once they are into the summer international break. 

They only had a week between the domestic fixtures and the start of this WC because of it being moved to the winter; despite my relentless scepticism it hasn't made much difference to the quality of the football or caused loads of extra shocks because some top teams didn't look ready.

So maybe they go to a 12 x 4 format and add even more WC matches... just cut out the amount of time for May/June friendlies before the tournament starts.  Then you probably get it just about done with an international break that is the same length, even if the tournament itself takes longer.

[Lucas]

29 minutes ago, Rafalution said:

clubs do do that, and there performance in those games suffers due to it. just look at how much better teams often do when they aren't in europe for a season. its the world cup - don't we want the best performances we can get rather than just cramming as many games as we can in?

We do as fans, sure. Think Fifa will be motivated by more TV money though, so who knows.

Capitalism will win over sport at the end of the day.

[pearcey_90]

13 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Maybe 12 groups of four is workable after all.  The 'double Euros' format where you have the top two and 8/12 third place teams going through to a R32.

The pushback has always been that it increases the length of the tournament and finalists have to play 8 games instead of 7.  But maybe they just need to get going quicker once they are into the summer international break. 

They only had a week between the domestic fixtures and the start of this WC because of it being moved to the winter; despite my relentless scepticism it hasn't made much difference to the quality of the football or caused loads of extra shocks because some top teams didn't look ready.

So maybe they go to a 12 x 4 format and add even more WC matches... just cut out the amount of time for May/June friendlies before the tournament starts.  Then you probably get it just about done with an international break that is the same length, even if the tournament itself takes longer.

Looking at the calendar, I assume at the moment the World Cup would start like Friday 12th June, UCL final probably be on like 30th May and the two weeks in-between internationals. 

Get European leagues to condense the league ever so slightly so UCL is held on May 23, and have first World Cup game on Friday 5th June and final on Sunday 12th July. Just over 5 weeks, more than enough time IMO.

International sides can then decide if they want to squeeze in pointless friendlies in the gap between, or realise from this World Cup it’s not needed and just have the group together for like 7-10 days before their first game. 

[oche balboa]

14 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Maybe 12 groups of four is workable after all.  The 'double Euros' format where you have the top two and 8/12 third place teams going through to a R32.

The pushback has always been that it increases the length of the tournament and finalists have to play 8 games instead of 7.  But maybe they just need to get going quicker once they are into the summer international break. 

They only had a week between the domestic fixtures and the start of this WC because of it being moved to the winter; despite my relentless scepticism it hasn't made much difference to the quality of the football or caused loads of extra shocks because some top teams didn't look ready.

So maybe they go to a 12 x 4 format and add even more WC matches... just cut out the amount of time for May/June friendlies before the tournament starts.  Then you probably get it just about done with an international break that is the same length, even if the tournament itself takes longer.

An extra week. Just finish the domestic season a week earlier 

[Darren Moores Mum]

It's a bit crap when you have 3rd places going through but it's much more palatable than the 3 team groups, which is horrible. I hope they go with that.

And of course there is precedent for having that at a WC. 3rd placed teams in WCs prior to 98 were going through.

[Confused Clarity]

On 30/11/2022 at 19:25, HopOnBaby said:

How about taking inspiration from the Champions League and going for a Swiss system?

Eight groups of six, with 12 top seeds, 12 second seeds, 12 third and 12 fourth, i.e. two from each pot per group.

Then you play three games about one team from each of the other pots. So, if you're a top seed, you'd play one of the seconds, one of the thirds and one of the fourths.

Once each team has played their three games, the top of the table go straight through, with second playing third, i.e. 2A v 3B, 3B v 2A, etc 

From there, straight knockout. Eight games instead of seven for 16 of the teams, but hopefully the final matchday should still have plenty riding on it.

The Swiss style could make things interesting tbh