2026 changes: Potential Group Stage for the 48-team format

[pearcey_90]

42 minutes ago, ginnybob said:

It's a bit crap when you have 3rd places going through but it's much more palatable than the 3 team groups, which is horrible. I hope they go with that.

And of course there is precedent for having that at a WC. 3rd placed teams in WCs prior to 98 were going through.

It does change the dynamic quite a bit the 3 going through. For example, Spain would’ve 100% been through after 2 games because of GD, so could rest the whole XI and not care even more if they wanted to. 

Does still give sides that going into final game some hope of going through, as 3 points will be enough on some occasions if GD is horrendous. 

Costa Rica when it got to 2-2, then wouldn’t for example had to then push on more, they could go back to sitting back (even though it made no difference, they was actually better when they stopped trying to park the bus  ) 

I thought I wouldn’t be a fan of three going through when it came to Euros, but I like it, and mixes things up for knockout rounds too as a result.

[The Guy From The Sunny Place]

Keep the 16x3 (2 games), top 2 proceed to another set of 8x4 groups by retaining the result with the other qualifying team (another 2 games). 

The only top qualifies to Quarter Finals (for a maximum 7 games). 

[verazmuhammadmasri]

I don't think that 16 groups of 3 will work. I'm just afraid that there will be another "Disgrace of Gijon" after 1982 because a team won't be playing in the last matchday.

For some context: 

Disgrace of Gijon was the name of a match between Austria vs West Germany that was played in Estadio El Molinón, Gijon, Spain. The match was the sixth and last game of the first-round Group 2, with the fifth game occurring on the previous day. Prior to this match, Algeria suprisingly defeated West Germany 1-0. Due to the way points are assigned in group stages, it was possible for Austria and West Germany to both advance to the next round (West Germany only needed to win by one or two goals).

During the match, The Germans scored the only goal within the first 10 minutes. Instead of making more efforts to score more goals, the pace of the match gradually deteriorated with no teams making too much of an attempt. As a result, Algeria didn't qualify to the next round despite winning 2 matches already, but West Germany and Austria were through to the next round

[XuluBak]

Byes* > 3rd place qualifiers, but just about anything would be better than groups of three.

* - I have no expectation this would actually happen, but it would ensure everyone has something to play for throughout the group stage and avoid watering down the knockout rounds.  

[PMLF]

If we must suggest crazy formats:

Could make the tournament be played in a knockout format, but with a double elimination system, so everyone would play two or more games.

The trouble would be finding enough dates.

[PMLF]

It seem it will most likely be 12 groups of four teams each in 2026 due to the success of this year's group stage.

Edited December 8, 2022 by PMLF

[Coulthard's Jaw]

So 88 matches if they go straight to last 16 (they won't) or 104 matches if it's a last 32 (lotta games).

Or maybe they could do something like the Europa League does, group winners go straight to the last 16, 8 best second placed sides play off against each other to join them (think my maths is right here).

[Rob1981]

104 games

[Coulthard's Jaw]

12 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

104 games

You need to do you World Cup draw again for 48 teams, but this time with 4 team groups  

[Lucas]

6 minutes ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

So 88 matches if they go straight to last 16 (they won't) or 104 matches if it's a last 32 (lotta games).

Or maybe they could do something like the Europa League does, group winners go straight to the last 16, 8 best second placed sides play off against each other to join them (think my maths is right here).

12 Groups of 4 = 48 

12 Group Winners + second placed teams = 24

Best 3 of 6 in each half of the draw of third placed teams = 32

32 team knockouts. 

Would be 8 games to play through, instead of 7.

[Rob1981]

30 minutes ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

You need to do you World Cup draw again for 48 teams, but this time with 4 team groups  

****ing hell, this has challenged me

Thought I'd cracked it, but right at the end I realised I'd put Panama in the same group as Mexico

Hold the line, caller...

[Rob1981]

Here you go.  Harder than it looks tbf, I take my hat off to the lads that write the algorithms to keep confederations apart.

GROUP A: Italy, Uruguay, Egypt, Saudi Arabia
GROUP B: Canada, Senegal, Ukraine, Ecuador
GROUP C: Argentina, Iran, Costa Rica, Mali
GROUP D: Mexico, Wales, Australia, Burkina Faso
GROUP E: Portugal, Peru, Japan, Jamaica
GROUP F: Netherlands, Denmark, South Korea, Cameroon
GROUP G: USA, Colombia, Nigeria, Qatar
GROUP H: France, Croatia, Chile, Iraq
GROUP I: England, Serbia, Tunisia, Panama
GROUP J: Brazil, Germany, Sweden, Ivory Coast
GROUP K: Belgium, Switzerland, Algeria, New Zealand
GROUP L: Spain, Morocco, Poland, United Arab Emirates

 

Imagine moaning about a bigger World Cup if it throws up Wales v Burkina Faso  

And Group J is amazing btw

[noikeee]

If we HAVE to have 48 teams, there is no sensible alternative other than 12 groups of 4

One option which we haven't seen above, but someone was suggesting on Reddit the other day, is:

Quote

12 groups of 4.

Top 8 winners get a bye.

Bottom 4 group group winners and 12 2nd place teams have a round of 16.

Second round of 16 with 8 winners and 8 bye teams.

Quarterfinals, semifinal and finals.

I think this is better than having a "round of 32" personally. That's just way too many games, and would need the annoying maths of figuring out who are the best 3rd placed teams. This way the top 2 in each group qualify, as usual. 96 matches in total.

Edited December 9, 2022 by noikeee

[themodelcitizen]

I don't like byes, everyone should have the same amount of games to get to the final. Plus imagine Brazil-Korea where Brazil had an extra few days of rest too? Keep things even

Like everyone else, I want the 12 groups of four, but we could go to 8 three-team groups after that - basically doubling up the Spain '82 format (and keep the rule where if you win the first matchday, you rest on the second, so no meaningless games).

No disgrace of Gijon as only group winners advance here. Then straight to the quarterfinals

Adds one extra matchday per team and 2 extra per tournament compared to the current format

[noikeee]

Yeah that's another option people were suggesting on Reddit. Idk I can see the upside but I also really dislike 3 team groups, even with those tweaks.

[WillHoward42]

My main concern is, it’s going to cost thousands to complete a 48 team sticker book!!

[Lucas]

13 hours ago, noikeee said:

If we HAVE to have 48 teams, there is no sensible alternative other than 12 groups of 4

 

You could have 8 groups of 6. 

But you'd either have just the top 2 going through, or the group winners going through, and getting a bye to the R16 where 2nd and 3rd place teams play off in an extra round.

[Anthrax Dave]

If it must go to 48 teams, why not have 8 groups of 6, with the top 4 from each going into a last-32 knockout going forward.

Would mean loads more football 👍🍺

[PaulHartman71]

I liked the 3 team group format with no draws and penalty shoot outs at full time if it is a draw. 

[Rob1981]

Came up briefly in Jon Champion’s commentary of the Morocco v Portugal game, he seemed pretty sure they were going to pump for 12 x 4 based on what has been said in the corridors of power in Qatar.

Much better format but it turns it from 80 games to 104 games after the point that they have decided on host cities and stuff. Also extends by nearly a week and means the finalists play eight games instead of seven, and this is what FIFA were trying to avoid all along so they didn’t get so much pushback from the elite clubs.

Edited December 11, 2022 by Rob1981

[The Golden boy]

Won't be so much of an issue making this change for 2026 if they need extra host cities as there are plenty of cities they turned down to host games which have the stadia and infrastructure to host.

[pearcey_90]

Surely they will need to add some extra venues?

[Mr Wallin]

2 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Came up briefly in Jon Champion’s commentary of the Morocco v Portugal game, he seemed pretty sure they were going to pump for 12 x 4 based on what has been said in the corridors of power in Qatar.

Much better format but it turns it from 80 games to 104 games after the point that they have decided on host cities and stuff. Also extends by nearly a week and means the finalists play eight games instead of seven, and this is what FIFA were trying to avoid all along so they didn’t get so much pushback from the elite clubs.

Yea as it stands the 16 groups of 3 is the decision and that is what the bids and stadium decision is based on.

Originally FIFA didn't dare to go for a much bigger/longer WC as that wouldn't be popular with clubs and a large portion of the fans. But everyone knows that 3 team groups are pretty **** and thus there is now a will to change it. Not sure FIFA will want to have another WC where they change a lot of factors after the fact as happened with moving this WC to winter and such. Will be interesting to see where it ends up.

I think that the one thing we all can agree on is that the FIFA Council are idiots for putting themselves in a position where things has to be fixed this late in the process.

[Peter G]

8 groups of 6. 8 Group Winners get a bye, 2nd and 3rds play extra round = 16/2 = 8 + 8 GW = 16

 

[Rob1981]

Reckon they need a minimum of 40 days to do 12 x 4 and then also an extra Round of 32.

You need more days for the group stage obviously because there are 72 games instead of 48 games.

But then you also get into "Winner of Group A plays 3rd Place in Group B, C or J" or something.  So you can't start the R32 immediately after the groups have finished because it might leave one of the third place teams without enough rest time between matches.  Once the Euros went to 24 teams they put two spare days in between the Group Stage and the knockouts.

So you probably end up with

• Day 1-6 Group Stage matchday 1 (4 games per day)
• Day 7-12 Group Stage matchday 2 (4 games per day)
• Day 13-18 Group Stage matchday 3 (4 games per day)
• Day 19-20 REST
• Day 21-24 R32 (4 games per day)
• Day 25-28 R16 (4 games per day)
• Day 29-30 REST
• Day 31-32 QF (2 games per day)
• Day 33-34 REST
• Day 35-36 SF (1 game per day)
• Day 37-38 REST
• Day 39 THIRD PLACE
• Day 40 FINAL

40 days compared to 32 days at WC2014 and WC2018

Maybe you could squash up the Group Stage slightly and have more games per day.  Do-able in US and Canada when they are spread across loads of time zones I suppose, but this doesn't work in future years in a smaller host country.  Plus if you get to 5-6 kickoff times a day it stops being possible to really keep on top of it and watch it all... then it definitely loses something.

[Coulthard's Jaw]

Yeah 4 games a day is just about doable, be a shame to lose that. Starts becoming like the rugby and cricket world cups where you don't really start paying attention until the knockouts.

[The_jagster]

Also, having moaned that this new format doesn't punish 0-0s in the group stage we could well have a final in which two teams drew 0-0 with each other in the opening game

I blame Lukaku

Edited December 12, 2022 by The_jagster

[forameuss]

The 4 team groups just have to be the plan.  It's going to add logistical problems, but those 3 team groups are just going to be a bit **** at best, and a complete competitive disaster at worst.  FIFA get a lot more games, therefore a lot more broadcasting revenue, and I'm not sure it throws up any logistical issues that are insurmountable.  For 2026, you've already got three countries and all three of those have venues to spare should you need them.  If you start entertaining more joint bids (as long as they're sensible) then you'll still have a decent pool of available hosts going forward.  

[Rob1981]

There will be pushback from the big clubs if it adds eight days to the length of the tournament.

But I posted this a few pages back... normally you have probably 14 days warmup time before a June tournament for friendlies and stuff. We have shown this time that you could squeeze that down to 7 days if you had to. I was sceptical at first but it didn’t really have much of an impact on the first round of games. If anything maybe makes a shock result slightly more likely which is no bad thing.

 

[GunmaN1905]

I don't like the 4 teams per group idea because anything which involves having some 3rd placed teams qualify and others not is bad design, imo.

Then you have some group winners play against 3rd placed teams, others play against 2nd. Just a mess.

8x6 with only group winners advancing to quarter-finals would be the best, imo.

Still 8 matches for semi-finalists, but everyone gets at least 5 matches and every group stage match would matter a lot. No chance to play with reserves.

With top two seeds playing on the final matchday, just to make sure.

[The_jagster]

2 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

I don't like the 4 teams per group idea because anything which involves having some 3rd placed teams qualify and others not is bad design, imo.

Then you have some group winners play against 3rd placed teams, others play against 2nd. Just a mess.

8x6 with only group winners advancing to quarter-finals would be the best, imo.

Still 8 matches for semi-finalists, but everyone gets at least 5 matches and every group stage match would matter a lot. No chance to play with reserves.

With top two seeds playing on the final matchday, just to make sure.

There would be lots of matches with nothing to play for, indeed most of the teams would be unable to qualify by their last match

[GunmaN1905]

3 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

There would be lots of matches with nothing to play for, indeed most of the teams would be unable to qualify by their last match

True, but top2 qualifying would mean 9 matches total.

No matter how you look at it, it's just a mess.

[Obi-Wan Kenobi]

18 hours ago, Mr Wallin said:

I think that the one thing we all can agree on is that the FIFA Council are idiots for putting themselves in a position where things has to be fixed this late in the process.

Again. Showing absolutely no lessons were at all learned from the Qatar farce, pursuit for more money trumps everything else it would seem.

[McBruce]

There are stadiums in time zones three hours apart in the 2026 set, and virtually every broadcaster has the capacity to simulcast on separate stations or online feeds.  It should be possible to do six matches a day, three of the twelve groups worth, in the group stage, at 11am/1:30/4/6:30/9/11:30 Eastern, the last two being west coast games at 6 and 8:30 local time, and if wanted, eight per day in the last round of simultaneous games and in the round of 32.  This gets the group stage done in 11 days, maybe 13 if you add a rest day before the third match and add an opening game and a ceremony on a day of its own.

What would be even better would be to have a public bracket draft after the group stage for the initial knockout positions.  Qualifying are the 24 first and second place teams, plus the 8 best third place teams.  Instead of this convoluted chart of “3rd in D, H, or J”, simply place the eight third-place teams into eight slots (one in each semi-quadrant of four teams), in the order that they played their last group stage matches, to preserve rest time.

Now rank the other 24 qualified teams by 1) position in group, 2) points earned, 3) goal difference (maybe discounting the match against the last place team in the group), 4) yellow and red card points, 5) FIFA ranking.

One by one, each team chooses their starting spot in the bracket, with the only constraints being 1) no teams from the same group in the same 8-team quadrant, 2) no half can have three teams from the same group.  A computer would be able to tell each team which choices were still available without making the completion impossible, and let us know how many potential combinations remain and fill in the rest when only one is left.  Away go the final game shenanigans of teams trying to get into the part of the draw they feel is weaker.  You might even allow the top teams in each group to pass and await developments before they choose their starting spot to best advantage.

Day 14 is Bracket Draft day, Day 15-20 is R32 (six per day), Day 21 is another off day, Day 22-23 is R16 (four per day), Day 25-26 is R8 (two per day), both semis on Day 29, third place game on Day 32, final on day 33.

[forameuss]

6 minutes ago, McBruce said:

There are stadiums in time zones three hours apart in the 2026 set, and virtually every broadcaster has the capacity to simulcast on separate stations or online feeds.  It should be possible to do six matches a day, three of the twelve groups worth, in the group stage, at 11am/1:30/4/6:30/9/11:30 Eastern, the last two being west coast games at 6 and 8:30 local time, and if wanted, eight per day in the last round of simultaneous games and in the round of 32.  This gets the group stage done in 11 days, maybe 13 if you add a rest day before the third match and add an opening game and a ceremony on a day of its own.

Just because it's easy enough nowadays to show all games at the same time, doesn't mean it's a good idea. Half the beauty of a World Cup is that each game is given a chance to breathe and have attention, and a lot of that magic starts to get lost once you hit round 3 of the group stage and you have to start making choices about which match to watch, or how much attention to give each one.  They should be making sure they keep that aspect as much as possible.  Otherwise we may as well just have a league style fixture list and have the group stage done in 7 days with everyone playing on the same day.

6 minutes ago, McBruce said:

What would be even better would be to have a public bracket draft after the group stage for the initial knockout positions.  Qualifying are the 24 first and second place teams, plus the 8 best third place teams.  Instead of this convoluted chart of “3rd in D, H, or J”, simply place the eight third-place teams into eight slots (one in each semi-quadrant of four teams), in the order that they played their last group stage matches, to preserve rest time.

Now rank the other 24 qualified teams by 1) position in group, 2) points earned, 3) goal difference (maybe discounting the match against the last place team in the group), 4) yellow and red card points, 5) FIFA ranking.

One by one, each team chooses their starting spot in the bracket, with the only constraints being 1) no teams from the same group in the same 8-team quadrant, 2) no half can have three teams from the same group.  A computer would be able to tell each team which choices were still available without making the completion impossible, and let us know how many potential combinations remain and fill in the rest when only one is left.  Away go the final game shenanigans of teams trying to get into the part of the draw they feel is weaker.  You might even allow the top teams in each group to pass and await developments before they choose their starting spot to best advantage.

Day 14 is Bracket Draft day, Day 15-20 is R32 (six per day), Day 21 is another off day, Day 22-23 is R16 (four per day), Day 25-26 is R8 (two per day), both semis on Day 29, third place game on Day 32, final on day 33.

I know we're going to America for most of the tournament, but jeezo...

The 3rd placed sides qualifying isn't an ideal solution by any means, but putting this convoluted mess in place of it isn't going to be much of an improvement.

[Gricehead]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:39, Rob1981 said:

Reckon they need a minimum of 40 days to do 12 x 4 and then also an extra Round of 32.

You need more days for the group stage obviously because there are 72 games instead of 48 games.

But then you also get into "Winner of Group A plays 3rd Place in Group B, C or J" or something.  So you can't start the R32 immediately after the groups have finished because it might leave one of the third place teams without enough rest time between matches.  Once the Euros went to 24 teams they put two spare days in between the Group Stage and the knockouts.

So you probably end up with

• Day 1-6 Group Stage matchday 1 (4 games per day)
• Day 7-12 Group Stage matchday 2 (4 games per day)
• Day 13-18 Group Stage matchday 3 (4 games per day)
• Day 19-20 REST
• Day 21-24 R32 (4 games per day)
• Day 25-28 R16 (4 games per day)
• Day 29-30 REST
• Day 31-32 QF (2 games per day)
• Day 33-34 REST
• Day 35-36 SF (1 game per day)
• Day 37-38 REST
• Day 39 THIRD PLACE
• Day 40 FINAL

40 days compared to 32 days at WC2014 and WC2018

Maybe you could squash up the Group Stage slightly and have more games per day.  Do-able in US and Canada when they are spread across loads of time zones I suppose, but this doesn't work in future years in a smaller host country.  Plus if you get to 5-6 kickoff times a day it stops being possible to really keep on top of it and watch it all... then it definitely loses something.

Group Stage matchday 3 only needs three days, not six, as you will have 8 games in the day  across 4 kickoff times, due to both games in the group being concurrent. Whether you'd need an extra rest day to accommodate teams playing in day 12 playing again on day 15 is debatable.

[EnterUsernameHere]

They talk as if this is the first 4 team group World Cup we have to go on

[Rob1981]

It’s like they needed to actually run a World Cup to remember how good the World Cup is. Just beyond belief.

[Aitutaki]

I'd do double group stage, 8 games for the winners:

1. 12 groups of 4, top 2 qualify (24 qualifiers)
2. 8 groups of 3, group winners qualify
3. QF
4. SF
5. Final

[skybluedave]

7 hours ago, EnterUsernameHere said:

They talk as if this is the first 4 team group World Cup we have to go on

What a bloody clown 

Haven't they committed to the 48 team tournament already?

[HopOnBaby]

48 teams, yeah; it's just how to arrange them once they're in the hat.

[McBruce]

8 hours ago, Aitutaki said:

I'd do double group stage, 8 games for the winners:

1. 12 groups of 4, top 2 qualify (24 qualifiers)
2. 8 groups of 3, group winners qualify
3. QF
4. SF
5. Final

Problems: which groups of three will have two group winners in them and which will have one?  What do you do if all three games have the same score and all three teams have the same record, hold a three-way shootout?  Play a match on a triangular field with 33 players?  What's most advantageous, playing the first and last of three matches, getting an extended rest after the initial group stage, or (hopefully) winning two matches quickly and getting a rest before the quarterfinal?

Three-team groups just add in more inequities.

We could eliminate the groups altogether.  www.printyourbrackets.com has brackets for any number of teams.  A 48-team double knockout bracket with 24 teams getting a first-round bye and a guarantee of three games for each team is ... 111 games, all of which may go to extra time and penalties.  No problem!