Brexit and FM17

[Per Annum]

2 minutes ago, reflection22 said:

Really?? Where did you hear/see that? If so that improves my opinion on this 'feature' slightly.

 

[Lord Rowell]

Just now, Morrissey said:

As far as Scottish Independence goes, the truth is the currency situation would be negotiated, so no-one knows.

With relation to the game, the only real points of impact come down to the work permit/freedom of movement side of things...unless I'm drastically missing something? Can't imagine a "new" currency would influence things too much? 

If it was a weak currency, then game impact if you were managing in Scotland would be you'd pay higher transfer fees to EU-based clubs, and higher wage costs to match those players wages as well. But that's an assumption and at this point the possibilities are so myriad I think SI will dodge that particular bullet and go for something more simplified - I could be wrong though.

[KUBI]

3 minutes ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

There are potential future events of equal magnitude.

As I have said, it is likely that the Netherlands and Hungary will be holding referendums on EU membership by the end of the decade, and they could vote the same way as the UK.

So if the game has Brexit in it, why not Nexit?

Again, "likely" is not the same as the Brexit. When they will have referendums and we know the outcome it would be something to consider. But for now, only the Brexit is reality.

[Per Annum]

Back on-topic - The "leaving Great Britain" text-string that has been highlighted must be changed for release if it hasn't already been changed for beta. An absolute howler

[Äktsjon Männ]

38 minutes ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

They declared independence from 'Great Britain' in the screenshot! 

So they're about to set sail and head off to the other side of the Atlantic? Mind you, it's about as realistic a scenario as the Premier League having a limit of four foreign players..

[Lord Rowell]

1 minute ago, Per Annum said:

Back on-topic - The "leaving Great Britain" text-string that has been highlighted must be changed for release if it hasn't already been changed for beta. An absolute howler

Hadn't spotted that. Should be leaving the UK, yes?

[JoshuaMPearce]

1 minute ago, KUBI said:

Again, "likely" is not the same as the Brexit. When they will have referendums and we know the outcome it would be something to consider. But for now, only the Brexit is reality.

But Scottish Independence from the UK is being factored in the game! That is, at this point, about as likely as the Dutch divorcing themselves from the EU.

[Allan385]

may be i don't understand enough, but looks like it will be changed

2 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

Back on-topic - The "leaving Great Britain" text-string that has been highlighted must be changed for release if it hasn't already been changed for beta. An absolute howler

 

 

[jomo]

I was just thinking about this and how its a big mistake. Unless however SI have decided after the break up of the UK the new entity would be called GB?? Especially if one of the scenarios has NI leaving. I know its still not a perfect fit with GB being the islands name but you never know.

[KUBI]

2 minutes ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

But Scottish Independence from the UK is being factored in the game! That is, at this point, about as likely as the Dutch divorcing themselves from the EU.

No, because the Scottish independance is one scenery within the Brexit, while the Dutch divorcing is pure speculation at the moment. 

[Per Annum]

1 minute ago, Äktsjon Männ said:

 Mind you, it's about as realistic a scenario as the Premier League having a limit of four foreign players..

I agree its unlikely, but this is represented by it only occurring in a certain percentage of games. If it only happens in e.g. 5% of games then tbh thats about accurately reflects the 5% chance of it happening. Obviously just making up 5% but its not offensively wrong.

Assuming common sense from the same organisation that appointed the wonderfully Brexit manager of Allardyce, and from the Government itself is wrong.

I'm confident, just like the other issue I was chastised for mentioning above, that the % chances won't be wildly wrong, although very unlikely to be perfect. Of course if someone are in a 5% game it becomes their100% and will come on here and moan. People always do.

[formerlyiab]

They can't even get the wording right.

Shows a distinct lack of knowledge in this area and yet we are going to have farcical and fantastical rule changes imposed mid way through our saved games from a team that doesn't know the difference between the UK and Great Britain. 

Good job. 

[HUNT3R]

Just now, formerlyiab said:

They can't even get the wording right.

They didn't get the wording right in a game that hasn't been released (even as a Beta) yet. It's not a big deal at all.

 

It's also going to be fixed.

[Robioto]

I don't like it personally. I wouldn't mind if there was an option to opt out, but it doesn't sound like there is.

But I suppose it will add to the challenge and make you focus more on home grown players.

[JoshuaMPearce]

1 minute ago, KUBI said:

No, because the Scottish independance is one scenery within the Brexit, while the Dutch divorcing is pure speculation at the moment. 

It's as speculative as Scottish independence, arguably less so.

[reflection22]

7 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

Yea, I meant, Brexit happening say 7 years into the game, and then the random possibility of the UK deciding to rejoin the EU say 5 years later. Then at least you wouldn't be stuck with having to apply for work permits for the next 30 years (which again, no-one knows if that will ever even be the case for EU players in real life). It should be dynamic, not leave the EU then we're stuck with it for the rest of that save. If we're going down the fantasy/speculation route with work permits and non-UK quotas, the possibility for the situation to change again further into your save would balance things out a bit for me.

 

[pheelf]

3 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

I agree its unlikely, but this is represented by it only occurring in a certain percentage of games. If it only happens in e.g. 5% of games then tbh thats about accurately reflects the 5% chance of it happening. Obviously just making up 5% but its not offensively wrong.

Assuming common sense from the same organisation that appointed the wonderfully Brexit manager of Allardyce, and from the Government itself is wrong.

I'm confident, just like the other issue I was chastised for mentioning above, that the % chances won't be wildly wrong, although very unlikely to be perfect. Of course if someone are in a 5% game it becomes their100% and will come on here and moan. People always do.

I fail to understand how they can attach a % chance of a certain outcome at all seeing as the people tasked with doing the negotiations don't even know. For all we know 'hard' Brexit could be the most likely outcome...who knows?

[yonko]

Here is how I feel about it.

Brexit is part of the reality and FM is trying to simulate the reality. It is going to happen one way or another, we just don't know how it's going affect football. Therefore I like the randomness SI has put into FM17. It has the possibility of making saves with English teams very challenging and interesting.

IRL I think it might be good for English football because if the limit on non-EU players is low, then clubs would have to focus on developing their English talent, which might benefit the National Team. But this might be bad on club level for the next 5-10 years. We will see.

I'll give it a go on separate saves with Liverpool and Tottenham as I like their squads this season and see how it goes.

[Crispypaul]

5 minutes ago, formerlyiab said:

Shows a distinct lack of knowledge in this area and yet we are going to have farcical and fantastical rule changes imposed mid way through our saved games from a team that doesn't know the difference between the UK and Great Britain. 

It sounds like you really shouldn't be buying this, to be honest, if you feel that way.

[KUBI]

4 minutes ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

It's as speculative as Scottish independence, arguably less so.

Brexit is reality and those scenarios could be part of this reality, while all the others are only speculative. These are complete different things in my opinion.

[Per Annum]

No-one can attach a definitive percentage chance, or else it wouldn't be a percentage chance.

They can put it based on apparent probability, which whilst said in a post ages ago above is open to being wrong for everyone who then has a game that progresses down a non-implemented IRL route, that doesn't stop the route being wrong at the time the save-file was created. Not sure how that is hard to comprehend.

Reflection22 sorry my link didnt work but  

 

[Cougar2010]

1 minute ago, pheelf said:

I fail to understand how they can attach a % chance of a certain outcome at all seeing as the people tasked with doing the negotiations don't even know. For all we know 'hard' Brexit could be the most likely outcome...who knows?

If they want to have different possible scenarios how else would they set it up?

Weighted random is used elsewhere in the game and is the sensible option once they've decided they want the different scenarios in the game.

[gibbo11]

25 minutes ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

I don't think this is a good idea because:

1) It's another step away from 'fun' toward 'realism'.

2) If this political event is implemented, why not other ones? 

3) It doesn't appear to be implemented correctly, though I can reserve full judgement on that until I have played it!

What is not fun for you is fun for the majority of people I've seen comment on it. 

Because other political events haven't been voted for or are realistically happening. Brexit is.

'Until you have played it' - So it is a good idea to follow how the beta does after all?

[enigmatic]

 

1 minute ago, KUBI said:

Brexit is reality and those scenarios could be part of this reality, while all the others are only speculative. These are complete different things in my opinion.

Both scenarios require a separate and purely hypothetical referendum the status quo has no interest in offering and a radical change in voter opinions. 

[Morrissey]

As a fan of this addition, the only criticism I have is that there is no built in option at the game setup screen. SI surely knew there would be a degree of opposition to these changes?

That said, it's been announced while any pre-orders can still be easily cancelled.

[HUNT3R]

1 minute ago, pheelf said:

I fail to understand how they can attach a % chance of a certain outcome at all seeing as the people tasked with doing the negotiations don't even know. For all we know 'hard' Brexit could be the most likely outcome...who knows?

People seem very fixated on the percentage part, when Miles mentioned more than that. We don't know the details around it but the article makes it clear it's more than just a random percentage game.

[pheelf]

1 minute ago, Cougar2010 said:

If they want to have different possible scenarios how else would they set it up?

Weighted random is used elsewhere in the game and is the sensible option once they've decided they want the different scenarios in the game.

Well, I would assume that you would weight each outcome equally given that they don't know...otherwise you could make the assertion that it's biased based on nothing but speculation on what they think is more likely

[JoshuaMPearce]

Just now, KUBI said:

Brexit is reality and those scenarios could be part of this reality, while all the others are only speculative. These are complete different things in my opinion.

Brexit is not yet reality, as article 50 hasn't been triggered.

As I previously alluded to - has the possibility of Northern Ireland joining Eire been implemented? Gibraltar joining Spain? Spain leaving the EU (as a result of becoming net contributors, if Brexit happens)?

All of those are direct scenarios that could result if Brexit happens.

[Lord Rowell]

1 minute ago, pheelf said:

I fail to understand how they can attach a % chance of a certain outcome at all seeing as the people tasked with doing the negotiations don't even know. For all we know 'hard' Brexit could be the most likely outcome...who knows?

I think in the article in the Telegraph @Miles Jacobson said, or at least implied, that following the Conservative Party conference, hard-Brexit is the most likely outcome. So that will have a higher % chance of occurring. That in itself makes the game more realistic than pretending Brexit isn't happening.

People seem to be arguing that because we don't for certain know the implications of Brexit, that SI should do nothing and ignore it. But I think doing that takes you further away from simulating football management. Hence, its better to at least try to create a model that somehow reflects this. SI have for sure introduced uncertainty and risk and it is clear people are dealing with that in different ways.

[reflection22]

2 minutes ago, Per Annum said:

No-one can attach a definitive percentage chance, or else it wouldn't be a percentage chance.

They can put it based on apparent probability, which whilst said in a post ages ago above is open to being wrong for everyone who then has a game that progresses down a non-implemented IRL route, that doesn't stop the route being wrong at the time the save-file was created. Not sure how that is hard to comprehend.

Reflection22 sorry my link didnt work but  

 

I could be wrong, but I think that refers to Brexit not happening in the first instance. I am talking about it going through in game and then we rejoin the EU say 5 or so years later. That's what I'm getting at here.

Imagine the relief struggling for years only allowed 7 or 8 non UK players. Then all of a sudden the UK rejoins the EU! Would be a nice touch IMO.

[JoshuaMPearce]

1 minute ago, enigmatic said:

 

Both scenarios require a separate and purely hypothetical referendum the status quo has no interest in offering and a radical change in voter opinions. 

The likely winners of the next Dutch election are the party headed by Geert Wilders - they are interested in offering a referendum, hence why I brought it up.

[Cougar2010]

Just now, pheelf said:

Well, I would assume that you would weight each outcome equally given that they don't know...otherwise you could make the assertion that it's biased based on nothing but speculation on what they think is more likely

Well exactly it could be that each scenario is equal, it could be that they've weighted the more extreme options as less likely to happen we don't know.

It also doesn't really matter and we don't need to know the actual %.  We know that one of a series of outcomes will happen at some point in the future of a save.  The game will inform us in advance of it happening and it will inform us of the outcome.

[JoshuaMPearce]

3 minutes ago, gibbo11 said:

What is not fun for you is fun for the majority of people I've seen comment on it. 

Because other political events haven't been voted for or are realistically happening. Brexit is.

'Until you have played it' - So it is a good idea to follow how the beta does after all?

1) That's fine, I'm simply offering my opinion.

2) Brexit is not definitely happening yet. Article 50 has yet to be triggered.

[phnompenhandy]

1 minute ago, Lord Rowell said:

People seem to be arguing that because we don't for certain know the implications of Brexit, that SI should do nothing and ignore it. But I think doing that takes you further away from simulating football management. Hence, its better to at least try to create a model that somehow reflects this. SI have for sure introduced uncertainty and risk and it is clear people are dealing with that in different ways.

No, I think people are suggesting SI should have waited a year so that there would be far less uncertainty. It would probably be well-suited to FM18

[Lord Rowell]

1 minute ago, pheelf said:

Well, I would assume that you would weight each outcome equally given that they don't know...otherwise you could make the assertion that it's biased based on nothing but speculation on what they think is more likely

That's not how I would design that aspect of the game and I doubt SI will have either. I posted on this earlier on (big thread I know!). They will very likely have spoken with politicians, political scientists at universities and so on, who will have given them an estimate of the likely chances of each scenario occurring and then built those probability forecasts into the game.

[Per Annum]

Just now, reflection22 said:

I could be wrong, but I think that refers to Brexit not happening in the first instance. I am talking about it going through in game and then we rejoin the EU say 5 or so years later. That's what I'm getting at here.

Imagine the relief struggling for years only allowed 7 or 8 non UK players. Then all of a sudden the UK rejoins the EU! Would be a nice touch IMO.

Hmm yeah I read it the repeal route after the event, but looking at it again now I see how it can be read both ways, possibly more likely the way you read it. Apologies

It's a shame as I agree it would be a good addition (before someone comes in and says no-one would let us back in, as former EU worker I can say there is literally no binding precedent that can't be moved).

Imagine if you quit your fave EPL team due to hard brexit then it was repealed a few years later. I'd love that type of chance.

[gibbo11]

1 minute ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

1) That's fine, I'm simply offering my opinion.

2) Brexit is not definitely happening yet. Article 50 has yet to be triggered.

And that outcome is in the game

[Whatawaster95]

This is really confusing, so with this whole Scottish Independence thing, does that ALWAYS happen if there is a 'hard Brexit' in the game?...i assume not. 

There would need a to be referendum for that to happen in real life? So why is Scottish independence included in the game? 
I get that Brexit IS happening, but Scottish independence right now IS NOT. 

[eriktous]

I think I'd actually prefer it to have equal probabilities of happening for all scenarios. With the low amount of saves I play, it's likely that I will end up with the same scenario in all of my games. I think it might be more fun to have to deal with a different one in each save.

[enigmatic]

7 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

People seem very fixated on the percentage part, when Miles mentioned more than that. We don't know the details around it but the article makes it clear it's more than just a random percentage game.

I got the opposite impression from the article tbh. They expressly ruled out it being a player choice, and I can't really conceive how else they could make it anything other than possibilities with pre-determined probabilities and consequences selected by a random number generator unless they're building a fully fledged politics simulator

 

[KUBI]

Let's talk about what is in the game - the Brexit scenarios, not what could or should be, as for this there is a feature request forum and for political speculations there is a off-topic forum.

[Welshace]

My very first post on this thread was about keeping it on topic and on the game, not real life politics and speculation about it..

 

Please do, as discussion on the feature is very much wanted, and I would hate to close this.

[davie]

4 hours ago, Lord Rowell said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/10/18/brexit-is-simulated-in-football-manager-2017-and-its-going-to-ma/

 

I thought this topic deserved a thread of its own, so here it is.

 

This, IMHO, is absolutely brilliant. I didn't see this coming at all tbh. SI have been really, really brave here. It's a risk in terms of getting / predicting the possible different impacts of Brexit, though I'm sure that's been simulated lots of times in house. The possibility of Scottish secession from the UK is really going to cause some controversy.

 

I've just seen the announcement of this feature elsewhere and you are right. It wil cause controversy. I think Sports Interactive have been rather premature in adding this and will have to adjust the wording of this before the final game is released since there's been no official announcement from either Nicola Sturgeon or Downing street that there definitely will be another referrendum on Independance. Either way even if there is another vote being Scottish myself I think the result will be fixed like it was the last time so there will be no chance of Scotland rejoining the EU when Brexit finally does happen.

[JoshuaMPearce]

1 minute ago, gibbo11 said:

And that outcome is in the game

I was led to believe it wasn't. There are, according to the Telegraph, three scenarios: 'Hard' Brexit, 'Soft' Brexit, and a sort of special exemptions scenario, where the effects of leaving aren't too gargantuan. I haven't read about any scenario where the UK government reneges on the vote, and the UK remains in.

[HUNT3R]

Just now, enigmatic said:

I got the opposite impression from the article tbh. They expressly ruled out it being a player choice, and I can't really conceive how it could make it anything other than possibilities with pre-determined probabilities and consequences selected by a random number generator unless they're building a fully fledged politics simulator

 

You're making it sound like it's all assumption.

 

“As a result we’ve decided to go down another route, and have included every possible outcome in the game, using artificial intelligence and percentage chances to make every game different.”

[Per Annum]

1 minute ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

I was led to believe it wasn't. There are, according to the Telegraph, three scenarios: 'Hard' Brexit, 'Soft' Brexit, and a sort of special exemptions scenario, where the effects of leaving aren't too gargantuan. I haven't read about any scenario where the UK government reneges on the vote, and the UK remains in.

I linked Miles tweet above. It can be read to imply that no brexit is an alternative option to soft brexit, although they would in-game be identical. I agree that isn't 100% consistent with the tone of the article though.

[HUNT3R]

Just now, JoshuaMPearce said:

I was led to believe it wasn't. There are, according to the Telegraph, three scenarios: 'Hard' Brexit, 'Soft' Brexit, and a sort of special exemptions scenario, where the effects of leaving aren't too gargantuan. I haven't read about any scenario where the UK government reneges on the vote, and the UK remains in.

The posts in this thread, quoting the tweets from Miles, made it clear that there's an option for no Brexit also.

[CaptainSa]

Just now, JoshuaMPearce said:

I was led to believe it wasn't. There are, according to the Telegraph, three scenarios: 'Hard' Brexit, 'Soft' Brexit, and a sort of special exemptions scenario, where the effects of leaving aren't too gargantuan. I haven't read about any scenario where the UK government reneges on the vote, and the UK remains in.

Check out Miles twitter. He's confirmed that no Brexit is also in the game.

[gibbo11]

3 minutes ago, JoshuaMPearce said:

I was led to believe it wasn't. There are, according to the Telegraph, three scenarios: 'Hard' Brexit, 'Soft' Brexit, and a sort of special exemptions scenario, where the effects of leaving aren't too gargantuan. I haven't read about any scenario where the UK government reneges on the vote, and the UK remains in.

 

[13xForever]

I dont mind after initial disgust.

Surely Hard Brexit must/will have a pretty low % hit rate.