30 time reload, but you can't win

[Leeds_Leeds_Leeds!]

I was just thinking that. If these factors (morale, tactics, formation etc) can affect 30 games in a row then clearly the game is too highly strung and is far too complicated for its own good. No doubt i'll get bombarded with people saying 'I find it easy' but I am not saying that. You may find it easy but what if you lost two games in a season? Those two games could have been victories all because then game is too sensitive.

[Nameci]

I dont believe the AI cheats. Sounds quite logical Inter would go play very defensively and try to score on a counter attack. Maybe your tactic is to aggresive, leaving gaps in your defense? Against real top clubs you shouldnt play too attacking (as in mentality very high), just high pace is enough.

[Jack Rudd]

They aren't affecting 30 games in a row. They're affecting the same game 30 times.

[dafuge]

If morale is responsible for 30 straight (sometimes very dodgy) defeats, then something is very very wrong with that.

We could go on about this forever really, couldn't we? I think the OP should just upload the game for a couple of us to have a butchers at. Only then can we genuinely draw any kind of conclusion. He should, too, upload his tactic that he is using so we can watch how that works.

If he uploads the game, his tactics will come with it. I'd love to have a look and try the match with his tactics, then with my own.

[Leeds_Leeds_Leeds!]

They aren't affecting 30 games in a row. They're affecting the same game 30 times.

Talk about being pedantic. I'm sure you know what I meant...

[Nameci]

If he uploads the game, his tactics will come with it. I'd love to have a look and try the match with his tactics, then with my own.

Same here Opposition Instructions/Team Talk might play a role as well.

[Jack Rudd]

Talk about being pedantic. I'm sure you know what I meant...

I did, but the distinction is worth making: for 30 reloads of the same game, the starting conditions (including pre-teamtalk morale) are going to be the same every time.

[dafuge]

Same here Opposition Instructions/Team Talk might play a role as well.

And the press conference.

Obviously things like form, morale and fitness will be the same every time (I'm guessing one or more of these are favouring Inter) but there are a huge number of combinations of influences a manager can have in a match like this.

I'd like to think I could get a win if I had 30 attempts.

[ensar13]

I have 4-5 tactics that work. Everyone is made for MY players. Kaka has Free-Role, but Gourcouf in the same position NOT. Nesta has marking man, but Senderos not. I always change tactic for my players and to cope with the AI. In this match, I let my FB not go forward, so that they can accomplished the operation: close down AMR (Mancini) and AML (Maxwell). So, Thiago and Nesta are dealing with Ibra. Cambiasso and Palombo are not closed down because I will make disturbance in the middfield with Flamini and Kaka. So I let them tackling hard. Capel and Gattuso, or Srna can go forward and cross ball. Pato and Love or PAloschi or Boriello, gets chances but they can not score always.

And now, why does the AI get from nowhere a long ball to Ibra and Tiago is just staying? AI get a free kick on the edge of the Box, and Cambiasso score along range shoot?

The most match I lost 1:0 ; 2:0; 1:1 ex.2:1 ; and when they are in 10, they play 4-4-1 I still left my DC on Ibra, not closing him, so that he can't run away, I have superiority in the midfield, but it don't work. The game don't stop the match to show me a chance (20 minutes of play, and no single chance for me), and then after the 80' there came a chance for Inter and they equalise. The most are on the way I told, a stupid chance or a imagination free-kick. That is not possibile.

And the nice one, sorry that I didn't save this 2 games. From begin until the min. 63' the game went THE SAME WAY. A replay. The same goals, the same injuries, the same red card, the same misschances, and everything in the same min. and second and the same players and the same tactic changes. And in min. 63' I took now Gattuso and let Srna play, and then the game changed. 1:1 and on penalty 5:3 to them. Boriello and Velose miss the penalty

And yes, in a match, they were leading 1:0, they get a red card in min. 72' and in the min. 83' a got a penalty to equalise the match. Kaka step up, and... he miss ????

Or, I scored twice, and they equalise from Corner kick with a player (13 heading) marked by Nesta, and second time (14 heading) marked by Kaladze. And then they got a penalty in the 77' Burdisso scored. After that, no more chances for me. The game ended 3:2

Ronaldinho, Pirlo, and Jankulovski are not playing because the condition are: 89% 88% and 85%. I play with players above 93% so that they can run. But this doesn't help.

[dafuge]

Are you able to upload the game for us?

[Wee Aja]

If he uploads the game, his tactics will come with it.

Oh yes... ahem :o

I'm also aware it's not 30 matches in a row, it's just the same match 30 times but even so... to lose it every single time just isn't right. Even Mick McCarthy would win a few ffs!

*banging head on brick wall*

[Indi75]

We assume a player with 20 for Penalties is likely to score more than a player with 14 in the same attribute.

But this would only bear out over a given given period, and is then subject to other attributes such as composure, finishing, technique etc. In a one off game, this could go either way.

This too is true of headers, as you need to look at jumping stats, finishing stats etc.

The issue with trying to simply look (somewhat naively) at the attributes is that FM is designed to take an awful lot of other factors into account.

This whole debate is an annual occurence around release time as anyone feeling aggrieved at a late equaliser tends to start a thread about AI cheating, which in turn becomes a raging thread of flaming as different people have different views and a different understanding of the game.

As Dafuge has rightly said, we need to see the save game to show it can be won, at which point we can put this conspiracy to bed.

Oh yes... ahem :o

I'm also aware it's not 30 matches in a row, it's just the same match 30 times but even so... to lose it every single time just isn't right. Even Mick McCarthy would win a few ffs!

*banging head on brick wall*

It's not that it isn't right, it's that it isn't percieved as fair in the eyes of the person losing. Of course, this frustration is bought about by the failure to accept a random late goal in the original game.

I agree he should likely have won a couple, but only if his tactics are up to it, and only if the other 30+ factors affecting the game at that stage in the save game are suitably balanced.

[kevin_chn]

I believe most people get the feeling that sometimes their team is deemed to lose certain matches. Or at least, on some days their team has really bad luck.

Admittedly, this happens in real life. But, in real life, everything happened on the pitch happened for some reason. That is, causal relationship, which we are not necessarily able to know, exists. But in the game, such and such strange things, as I see them, are simply coded into the game and happen half-randomly.

You cannot win every game even if you are doing everything perfectly.

I guess, for example, there is a coefficient of the chance of your team's winning the following match. It is determined before the matchday. In the original poster's case, this coefficient is very against his team, so even though he tried thirty times, he never won a single match. But what if he loaded the game from the beginning of the season, or at least three weeks earlier? Perhaps he could manage to win the match. This is my pure speculation, though.

In conclusion, SI tries to simulate the real-life football world and so far they are quite successful. But I doubt human beings' current ability to program a simulated football world and let it run freely without any intervention. For now, to make the game appear to be realistic, many things have to be set up beforehand and hard coded into the game.

[Wee Aja]

Still no upload.

<frustration>

[Jack Rudd]

I guess, for example, there is a coefficient of the chance of your team's winning the following match. It is determined before the matchday. In the original poster's case, this coefficient is very against his team, so even though he tried thirty times, he never won a single match. But what if he loaded the game from the beginning of the season, or at least three weeks earlier? Perhaps he could manage to win the match. This is my pure speculation, though.

It's speculation that has been consistently denied by SI.

[em0o]

@ OP

If you wanna win so badly, use FMRTE, go to your 1st choice striker's page, and change the match exercise from 10000 to 32700. That will do the trick for you You've cheated by reloading anyways, so why not cheat using this instead?

[drunkpunk]

I really want a crack at trying to beat Inter.

[Wee Aja]

@ OP

If you wanna win so badly, use FMRTE, go to your 1st choice striker's page, and change the match exercise from 10000 to 32700. That will do the trick for you You've cheated by reloading anyways, so why not cheat using this instead?

Well he's not really cheating per sé, he's came on here with what he believes to be a serious problem with the game. Using FMRTE would totally bypass the match in a false manner and negate the original point, and he'd never fully understand why this is happening.

I really want a crack at trying to beat Inter.

So do I.

....ensar13? Hello?

[dafuge]

I really want a crack at trying to beat Inter.

So do I, especially with the Milan derby on TV later on.

Is it possible to upload the save?

[ensar13]

You still don't understand me. I am not going to WIN the match. I am not FRUSTRATED that I can't win the match. But I am ANGRY that I can change the end of game with my tactic and players. THAT IS MY POINT

Stop telling me I am cheating, I just want to know why I can't win a match with my tactics and knowing? Because, when it so like you said: If I had started the match 2-3 weeks before, then I would win it; so, WHY DO I PLAY THE MATCH? The AI knows before the match, that I will lose. So, you can change what ever you want, but you CAN'T win.

I just came to something that IT'S NOT FAIR to us players. You can't take us 3 points for some reason. It is a manager game, I am a player which has the control of my team and my mentality on the field. But now, it shows me the opposite. Sometimes, the game tell you if you will win the match or not. It's not up to you to decide to win.

Wait for the upload. The game is 153 MB big, and I have wiresslan on a mobile GSM. Bound in contract with my cellular phone.

[ensar13]

I am watching the matches Bayer - Wolfsburg, and then Milan - Inter

Tonight, I will play the match, and will save the match. So you can see how does it look. OK?

[dafuge]

Wait for the upload. The game is 153 MB big, and I have wiresslan on a mobile GSM. Bound in contract with my cellular phone.

Does that mean you are uploading it, or you can't?

It sounds like a huge file, is 'compress save games' turned on?

[macca72]

Here's an idea.

Could the OP post a screenshot of the players morale and form, along with a screenshot of his tactic & team instructions.

Maybe we could walk this through as a group, using the default tactics only, pausing the game every 10 mins or so to discuss next stages. Could be fun actually !

[Wee Aja]

This should be moved the CSE forum. "The Milan derby challenge!" - the aim is simple; win a single match. Apparently it's impossible

Any sign of this game?

[ensar13]

No, I don't compress saved games.

I play Serie A, Bundesliga, Spanien League, France and Premier League. And have turned on to watch Croatia, Serbia, Russia, Argentina, Brazil, Turky, Portugal, Holland. I want to have more players to buy.

I have two managers, because I took Wolfsburg in december (they were 17 on the table), and in the summer Sunderland manager quit so I made one more to take them, to buy Keirrison and let him play in Europa League. So now, I am playing Milan, Wolfsburg and Sunderland. And that is why the save game is so big.

I will try to load it.

[SnK41.int]

we definitively need the save !

[IMT]

Are you changing what you do in this game? Changing the players? If not then it stands to reason you will keep losing, your team is clearly alot worse than the opposition.

I personally think the OP is full of it myself, so prove us wrong and put up your save game, I bet I can win the game? If you don't put up the save then it's clear you're simply having a rant about something that didn't happen.

[Blanchflower1]

love the conspiracy theories on here. Haven't seen this one in a while. Hahahaha

you are obviously not changing your tactics in the last ten mins to prevent the 10-men from going all out attack and scoring, which does happen irl.

When you were cheating, did you save before the press conference? If not your original words probably demotivated your team, gave them too much confidence or something, meaning you are already disabled before the match starts.

Also, have you tried holidaying past the match? If you are so so so desperate to win the game, try that. See if your ass man is a better manager than you.

The ai doesn't cheat. It can't. Unless your computer has gained conscious thought and the terminator films are about to come true.

lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RBKalle]

I'm not surprised...

The "default loss" issue has been there for a couple of FM versions now, just with different frequency and procedure.

Be it a 0-1 loss on opponents' one and only shot on goal after having DOMINATED the game, be it a dramatic second-half comeback, be it a clear loss you apparently can't avoid no matter what you do... there are indeed games you just CAN'T win.

Saying "well, that's football" isn't always enough, nor the right way to deal with something that has been reported by so many people and in so many different ways it can't be ignored or dismissed as "it happens in real life too".

I'm totally aware there are matches in real life that don't always go as expected/planned, but when someone says he replayed the same game THIRTY TIMES without winning once, it must mean something...

Oddly enough, we have a long and quite heated discussion about the likelihood of Saudi Arabia coming back from 0-2 to 3-2 against England, where many said "oh, even an easy game can have a surprising outcome"... Now are we advocating the exact opposite theory when AC Milan didn't manage to win a single game (out of THIRTY simulations) against Inter Milan??

That's like saying "you can eventually win the lottery", but denying you can find a forgotten 5$ bill in a pocket of your jeans.

Sorry, but no matter how inept at FM the OP may be, no matter how many bad tactical decisions he may or may not have made during those thirty games, we can't just dismiss a 0-30 record for AC Milan-Inter Milan as "it's football, and even if it's odd, it's because you suck at FM"...

Negative records do exist, negative records against one particular team do exist, but the "____ hasn't won against ____ since 19xx" is the result of YEARS/DECADES of games, played once or twice a year, so the circumstances are totally different.

A more sensible comparison would be with an NHL-style season/playoff, where teams in the same division play against eachother 6 times. I guess unless a team is having a really really really awful season, a 0-6 record is a bit of a rarity...

How we should accept a 0-30 record for a game virtually played on the same day is beyond me...

[el sid]

Would love a crack at the game too

[Johnny5]

I remember this happening to me before as well. Was FM 07 I believe. I was Man U and was playing Middlesbrough. Lost the first 5 reloads so then I demoralized their whole team and then set the first team all as 0 fitness just to test this. They played all of their reserve players and still beat me! This happened about 20 times until I guess my team got lucky and it let me win my game.

[dafuge]

How we should accept a 0-30 record for a game virtually played on the same day is beyond me...

If this game ever gets uploaded, I'd love to see if every person who has a go at it also gets no wins in thirty attempts.

I'll stick my neck out here and say that I think I could get a win given thirty attempts, I'm more than willing to be proved wrong though.

[Wee Aja]

If this game ever gets uploaded.....

My sentiments exactly.

[bean824]

This has happened to me before as well. It's almost as if the opposition team is more 'up for it' than usual. Except its a usual league match, with no massive significance on the result. It's like the result had been pre-scripted for the opposition to win.

[dafuge]

This has happened to me before as well. It's almost as if the opposition team is more 'up for it' than usual. Except its a usual league match, with no massive significance on the result. It's like the result had been pre-scripted for the opposition to win.

I'm assuming you reload all of your losses here, but do you find that this is the case with all of your losses, or just the odd one?

[bean824]

Don't reload all, only I had some issues with the chairman and I was sacked after the loss - so I reloaded.

For the losses that I do reload (Silly cup losses etc) I find that its not exactly common, but not hardly ever.

[Scott1990]

I'm assuming you reload all of your losses here, but do you find that this is the case with all of your losses, or just the odd one?

I'll answer this as well because I've seen the same thing happen. It's definitely not there with all losses. Sometimes, the AI puts away their chances and I don't, and sometimes a better team will outplay me. I'm fine with this.

However, there are some matches which are impossible. They are always the same too: away against medium/poor opposition. And what happens is they absolutely slaughter me, no matter what. I've tried reloading and playing with different tactics- nothing works. If I find myself being played off the pitch with a superior team against Sheffield United or Reading, I usually just quick and go with the holidayed result. IMO, it's leveling the playing field.

[realzealman]

why is everyone taking it as complete gospel that he has replayed the match LITERALLY 30 times. Do you not think he might possibly be exaggerating a tiny bit? Seriously, he's probably had about six goes.

[CutePirate]

Well, let's do the math.

For arguments sake, lets say Inter always go into this game with an 80% (or 0.8) chance of winning (I'll get onto tactical changes and such later). Since the indecent is isolated, each game will have the same chance (0.8).

If the OP plays is 30 times, then Inter has a 0.8^30 (or 0.8*0.8*0.8*...) chance of winning all 30 games, or 0.00123, a little better than a 1/1000 shot. Given that there are more than 1000 people playing FM, then it's entirely possible for Inter to totally own him, if you'll excuse the internet slang.

Now of course, there are variables involved. These would change the percentage chance of winning, but if it were possible to take an average of the win percentages, I'm fairly confident the percentage would be comfortable in Inter's favour.

Onto specifics. The OP seems to start at a disadvantage, it doesn't help that his case study is a game he lost, of course (if he could replay 30 times a game he won 1st time as well, it could then almost be considered and experiment). Some of this would be due to constants (things like morale, fitness, that are stuck in the save game), and some are variables (like formation, team talk. etc), and some are constants that could've been variables (maybe the OP always used the same team talk, for example).

We cant for definite know, without reverse-engineering the match engine, how much the variable and constants would effect this game, but neither would push the win chance to either 100% or 0%, due to there being an exponential curve just before you get there (for more info, go and read up on probabilities as fractions).

So, in summary, it is not impossible to beat Inter, it just seems unlikely at this point (a save game would shed more light on the subject).

And also, the chances of Inter winning 30 replayed (and therefore isolated) games is not as bad as you might think.\

Bleh, was this really worth posting? I've read threads like these for too long now.

[Kriss]

If the OP had won the first game he reloaded this thread wouldn't exist, therefore the only relevant figure would be, how many people have reloaded several times and not got the same outcome.

Answers to the guy who thought up the theory of probability;)

[SCIAG]

I bet there are some serious flaws in his tactics, as well as fitness, morale and motivation issues. One thing that stands out is using Gattuso on the right wing. I think most users would give him instructions of a right winger, when really he's a DM playing on the right.

[Leeds_Leeds_Leeds!]

Well, let's do the math.

For arguments sake, lets say Inter always go into this game with an 80% (or 0.8) chance of winning (I'll get onto tactical changes and such later). Since the indecent is isolated, each game will have the same chance (0.8).

If the OP plays is 30 times, then Inter has a 0.8^30 (or 0.8*0.8*0.8*...) chance of winning all 30 games, or 0.00123, a little better than a 1/1000 shot. Given that there are more than 1000 people playing FM, then it's entirely possible for Inter to totally own him, if you'll excuse the internet slang.

Now of course, there are variables involved. These would change the percentage chance of winning, but if it were possible to take an average of the win percentages, I'm fairly confident the percentage would be comfortable in Inter's favour.

Onto specifics. The OP seems to start at a disadvantage, it doesn't help that his case study is a game he lost, of course (if he could replay 30 times a game he won 1st time as well, it could then almost be considered and experiment). Some of this would be due to constants (things like morale, fitness, that are stuck in the save game), and some are variables (like formation, team talk. etc), and some are constants that could've been variables (maybe the OP always used the same team talk, for example).

We cant for definite know, without reverse-engineering the match engine, how much the variable and constants would effect this game, but neither would push the win chance to either 100% or 0%, due to there being an exponential curve just before you get there (for more info, go and read up on probabilities as fractions).

So, in summary, it is not impossible to beat Inter, it just seems unlikely at this point (a save game would shed more light on the subject).

And also, the chances of Inter winning 30 replayed (and therefore isolated) games is not as bad as you might think.\

Bleh, was this really worth posting? I've read threads like these for too long now.

I like how you worked out the end odds and stated that Inter have a 1/1000 chance of doing this, good explanation. But why did you assume that it is acceptable to say Inter have an 80% chance of winning and then base your theory on this? It totally ruins your argument and makes it look bias towards the fact you favour the game is right in my opinion. Perhaps if you had worked on 50% chance it would be a more rational argument.

[Wee Aja]

Is it difficult to upload a save game file? I've never done it before and I'm assuming that's why ensar13 hasn't yet uploaded this one.

Getting a little agitated here :/

[ensar13]

it is not. But I have not a speed internet, I use WLAN from a Mobile GSM (like Vodafone, G3), and I have not a big speed. And my save file is 153 MB, so I will look to upload the file from a friend of me.

[dafuge]

I like how you worked out the end odds and stated that Inter have a 1/1000 chance of doing this, good explanation. But why did you assume that it is acceptable to say Inter have an 80% chance of winning and then base your theory on this? It totally ruins your argument and makes it look bias towards the fact you favour the game is right in my opinion. Perhaps if you had worked on 50% chance it would be a more rational argument.

I think it is pretty obvious from the results here that there is not a 50% chance of Inter winning, they obviously have an advantage going into this match. The interesting discussion that could happen is why they have this advantage.

[Leeds_Leeds_Leeds!]

Dafuge I don't se how you can assume from results, what percentage Inter have of winning?

That sort of thing is decided before a game isn't it? You don't walk in to a bookies and say what odds can I get on Man Utd beating Arsenal after the game! Or what if Stockport beat Chelsea 1-0, would you say after the game Stockport have a 70% chance of winning? I'm sure before it you would say 25%...

The results, at this stage as we don't have enough detail, cannot be used to define what chance either team has of winning. You are assuming that there is nothing wrong with the game here and therefore taking the results as evidence that Inter have the better chance of winning. It may be poor management, or it may be the game which is faulty? But the results can't be used to determine who is the favourite, that's backwards!

[Wee Aja]

it is not. But I have not a speed internet, I use WLAN from a Mobile GSM (like Vodafone, G3), and I have not a big speed. And my save file is 153 MB, so I will look to upload the file from a friend of me.

Right, I see. Well hopefully we can get a look at it soon

[TheMister]

But I have not a speed internet, I use WLAN from a Mobile GSM (like Vodafone, G3), and I have not a big speed. And my save file is 153 MB, so I will look to upload the file from a friend of me.

You have my sympathy. I'm on mobile internet too, and I leave downloads until the middle of the night when I can get a bearable speed.

[dafuge]

Dafuge I don't se how you can assume from results, what percentage Inter have of winning?

That sort of thing is decided before a game isn't it? You don't walk in to a bookies and say what odds can I get on Man Utd beating Arsenal after the game! Or what if Stockport beat Chelsea 1-0, would you say after the game Stockport have a 70% chance of winning? I'm sure before it you would say 25%...

The results, at this stage as we don't have enough detail, cannot be used to define what chance either team has of winning. You are assuming that there is nothing wrong with the game here and therefore taking the results as evidence that Inter have the better chance of winning. It may be poor management, or it may be the game which is faulty? But the results can't be used to determine who is the favourite, that's backwards!

It is called an 'experimental probability', where results of an experiment are used to predict the probability of the event happening. In this case, a match has been played 30(ish) times with only one result, that clearly suggests that the probability of an Inter win is not 50%. It doesn't really translate to real life football since games don't get replayed in identical conditions, they are played just once.

[Leeds_Leeds_Leeds!]

Yes but as I said, if you use this theory you are stating, you surely have to KNOW that the game is running perfectly and the results are not an effect of the game being faulty. If the game is faulty, which we don't know yet, then you might as well stick your finger in the air for probability.

As we don't know where we are with what is at fault, then we cannot use anything, and therefore should go with 50/50.