"Weight" of all the variables and their influence on the final score - SI answer please

Since CM 97/98 I've been asking this question every single version and never got one reply from Eidos or Sports Interactive, so here is the 64 million dollar question by the 14th year running that I would like SI to explain please:

Taking in consideration all the variables that influence the final score, can you please give us a clear description percentage wise of the "weight" of each variable (tactics, players stats, moral etc.) in the final score.

Thank you

You're asking the developers to disclose how the game calculates the result down to the smallest detail?

Not even mentioning how impossible this would be, it's just a silly idea in general. Why don't they just dump the entire source code on their website while they're at it.

SI themselves wouldn't be able to give you a straight answer even if they wanted. It's an hugely complicated mess of calculations. Unless they gave us the source code - the company's most precious resource. And you wouldn't be able to figure it out anyway even if you had the source code. Forget it.

And even if you did get all the variables and exactly what and how much they affect things, it wouldn't matter. Unless you want to give cracking the RNG a go(hint: not going to happen).

Not that I'm accusing Zico10 of anything, but a lot of people who worry about this sort of thing seem to think there is an inherent conspiracy built into the game i.e. the game will sometimes deliberately prevent you from winning no matter what. The problem with this is that SI stand to gain nothing from cheating you out of results, which begs the question of why they'd bother.

Well, Scotland inevitably becomes a powerhouse. So there is some scheming methinks. ;-)

Och! Tha' cannae be.

Basically Zico, you've spent 15 years standing in the wrong place.

@Ogris and Noikeee

It doesn't need to be to the smallest detail and no thanks, I'm not interested on the source code, that's why I'm asking about "percentage wise".

2 (amongst others) reasons behind it:

1- it will stop once and for all, all this talk about ME cheating no matter what, that comes around on every CM/FM release.

2-I would like to know what "weight" my tactic carries in the final score, let's say for example it carries a "weight" of 5%, so instead of wasting days/weeks/months developing tactics, we could be better of picking any of the pre-loaded FM ones.

The result isn't 'calculated' - it's simulated. Play by play. If your tactics are well suited to the attributes and style of your players, it will inevitably have an influence, if your tactics and players are more generic it will mean less and it will be a combination of morale, a difference in class between the sides, or simply luck, that eventually determines the result.

So there's no possible answer because there are too many variables.

The result isn't 'calculated' - it's simulated. Play by play.

True

So there's no possible answer because there are too many variables.

We know that, that's why I would like to know the major ones.(if there are any)

If your tactics are well suited to the attributes and style of your players, it will inevitably have an influence, if your tactics and players are more generic it will mean less and it will be a combination of morale, a difference in class between the sides, or simply luck, that eventually determines the result.

It's not that simple Hugo. Imagine that I'm team A on top of the league, morale is high, tactics that suits the style and attributes of my players, world class players. Playing v team X, Y or Z bottom of league, morale is "six feet under", conceding goals right left and center, generic tactic and players, huge gulf between sides. Following this principle team X, Y or Z haven't got a chance, but we know that doesn't happen and one might lose one or two games v sides like that, and it's not only down to luck. Of course some other major variables have to be playing their part, and that's where I wonder if tactics are the main variable here, what can be done to improve it further.

Basically Zico, you've spent 15 years standing in the wrong place.

Maybe you are right!!

If you don't believe SI when they say "the game doesn't cheat", you're not going to believe when they give percentages to all the factors either.

Not that they're actually going to give you this information, mind, because it doesn't make sense to quantify the engine in that way.

True

We know that, that's why I would like to know the major ones.(if there are any)

It's not that simple Hugo. Imagine that I'm team A on top of the league, morale is high, tactics that suits the style and attributes of my players, world class players. Playing v team X, Y or Z bottom of league, morale is "six feet under", conceding goals right left and center, generic tactic and players, huge gulf between sides. Following this principle team X, Y or Z haven't got a chance, but we know that doesn't happen and one might lose one or two games v sides like that, and it's not only down to luck. Of course some other major variables have to be playing their part, and that's where I wonder if tactics are the main variable here, what can be done to improve it further.

Player motivation or to say complacency will be an issue. (Tactics)Play more man at the back until you can fix it with team talk. You only need 1 player complacent to get you to lose.

Or it could be the opponent is very motivated to stop the run of defeats. Or your players having bad days despite being motivated

There is no main thing that affects it or to prevent it other than yourself. just like any manager in the top flight, they do their best at situation thrown at them. Being flexible.

dont be ridiculous zico.. your asking for peek at the inner workings of the game mechanics.. thats not for you or me too see..

and SI have no need or obligation to divulge it.. and nor should they... no other games company would divulge such information

and frankly.. SI gain nothing from telling you

If you don't believe SI when they say "the game doesn't cheat", you're not going to believe when they give percentages to all the factors either.

Not that they're actually going to give you this information, mind, because it doesn't make sense to quantify the engine in that way.

Ackter, I don't give a rats behind if "the game cheat or doesn't cheat" or the "inner works of game mechanics" ie. source code.

I'm interested at the "weight" of tactics. Simple as that.

dont be ridiculous zico.. your asking for peek at the inner workings of the game mechanics.. thats not for you or me too see..

and SI have no need or obligation to divulge it.. and nor should they... no other games company would divulge such information

and frankly.. SI gain nothing from telling you

No one mention any "obligation or need to divulge" or "peek". These are secondary roads you're taking and nothing to do with the OP.

Of course SI is gaining nothing for telling me, and losing nothing if they say the tactics have a "weight" of 40%. e.g.

the weight of tactics is the inner workings of the game... you keep saying ''weight'' as if its a variable you should be able to see within the game... its not... its part of the coding of the game.. if we knew the weighting of any changes we could make it would make the game pointless.. you'd know exactly down to the miniscule detail what changes to make.

Its not a question they are going answer, if they haven't answered the previous 13 times, why would they answer now?

The weight of tactics is about 13 stone 5.

if we knew the weighting of any changes we could make it would make the game pointless.. you'd know exactly down to the miniscule detail what changes to make.

Not really. Let's say the tactic "weight" is 40%. What minuscule detail you would have to change in a tactic if 40% is all that you know? We don't know how that 40% are distributed within the tactic itself. That's why I'm saying that managers would pay more attention when creating their own tactics(or not) and put an end to all this discussion about the ME cheating. And how the game would be pointless if you still have the remaining 60% playing it's part?

The weight of tactics is about 13 stone 5.

That's more like it!!

We know that, that's why I would like to know the major ones.(if there are any)

If only it were that easy.... It really isn't though. There can be days when a guy with 1 finishing can score a hattrick on even the worst of keepers(the chances of that being insanely low, but ok). The "major" ones that affect the gameplay have been researched into by the community. Trying to get anything more exact is horribly complicated.

100% it's your tactics.

I think you are looking at it the wrong way. I don't think anything has a weight in the final score as much as each thing impacts other to come together and, as a whole, determine the outcome. Just a quick example, you have good, if not great, players who have high morale, are well blended, and good decisions. You give a good team talk and your fluid tactic works wonderfully netting you a win. In contrast, you give a terrible team talk to the same set of players, they let in an early goal, and your fluid tactic falls apart because the players are crying on the field.

In the first scenario, your tactic made the difference as all the team talk did was maintain the already high morale. However, in the second, the team talk was the major influence ruining what was a good tactic.

As another thought, stick a striker in goal and see if the tactic or team talk can make any real difference at all.

Hope this makes some sense.

33% tactics + 33% team talks + 33% players

=

50% Things you can control

++++++++++++++++++++++RESULT

50% Things you cannot control

=

33% things the opponent controls + 33% form (predetermination) + 33% chance

Happy now?

I don't think you can weight a single variable like that in a head-to-head situation. We're not playing a brick wall every time, but different teams using different tactics with different players at different venues. What works wonders in one game can be ineffective in the next. Like, for example, exploiting the flanks against a narrow-playing side on a wide-ish ground, as opposed to trying the same on a narrow ground against world class wide players. Or getting away with a high line against certain opposition forwards but not against other, quicker ones. The point of tactics isn't (or shouldn't) be to find "the golden settings combination", but what's right for any particular situation, on top of a base philosophy. I don't see how you would quantify this into a single number.

@Ogris and Noikeee

It doesn't need to be to the smallest detail and no thanks, I'm not interested on the source code, that's why I'm asking about "percentage wise".

2 (amongst others) reasons behind it:

1- it will stop once and for all, all this talk about ME cheating no matter what, that comes around on every CM/FM release.

2-I would like to know what "weight" my tactic carries in the final score, let's say for example it carries a "weight" of 5%, so instead of wasting days/weeks/months developing tactics, we could be better of picking any of the pre-loaded FM ones.

They can't tell you the weight because that's not how it works. Indeed, if they'd be able to tell you "tactics have a weight of 40%", I'd be worried. That would mean the match engine would be cheating!

The game is simulated from each kick of the ball from the first to the very last minute of the game. Every single split-second decision each player makes depends on tactics, their attributes (visible, hidden and PPMs), form, morale, team talk responses, press conference responses, weather, the physics of the ball, and god knows what else. Each of those decisions would have a different weight for each factor, and the match engine isn't even fully capable of figuring out whether it's a good decision or not (altho it tries to do an approximation - otherwise the "decisions" player attribute couldn't exist). On top of that, there's the AI manager module deciding how to react to the game, and again, it does not KNOW whether the tactical changes it does are good or not - they use an approximation to figure it out. The players themselves go on morale trips throughout the match, by reacting to the way the game unfolds. Every single of those factors have different weights, inputted in different ways, at different stages of the game, and are so intrinsically dependent on the result of each other, that it's impossible to predict how they'll affect each other.

Now, how on earth are they going to cut through this incredibly complicated process and tell you "the weight"?

I may be misreading this but is this a thread asking for the calculations for the perfect tactic?

Just play the game...

They can't tell you the weight because that's not how it works. Indeed, if they'd be able to tell you "tactics have a weight of 40%", I'd be worried. That would mean the match engine would be cheating!

The game is simulated from each kick of the ball from the first to the very last minute of the game. Every single split-second decision each player makes depends on tactics, their attributes (visible, hidden and PPMs), form, morale, team talk responses, press conference responses, weather, the physics of the ball, and god knows what else. Each of those decisions would have a different weight for each factor, and the match engine isn't even fully capable of figuring out whether it's a good decision or not (altho it tries to do an approximation - otherwise the "decisions" player attribute couldn't exist). On top of that, there's the AI manager module deciding how to react to the game, and again, it does not KNOW whether the tactical changes it does are good or not - they use an approximation to figure it out. The players themselves go on morale trips throughout the match, by reacting to the way the game unfolds. Every single of those factors have different weights, inputted in different ways, at different stages of the game, and are so intrinsically dependent on the result of each other, that it's impossible to predict how they'll affect each other.

Now, how on earth are they going to cut through this incredibly complicated process and tell you "the weight"?

Actually, once a highlight is loaded, what happens in it is pre-set. This is because the highlight is a representation of ME calculations. Therefore, decisions aren't actually made as you watch them.

I agree with everything else, though.

They can't tell you the weight because that's not how it works. Indeed, if they'd be able to tell you "tactics have a weight of 40%", I'd be worried. That would mean the match engine would be cheating!

The game is simulated from each kick of the ball from the first to the very last minute of the game. Every single split-second decision each player makes depends on tactics, their attributes (visible, hidden and PPMs), form, morale, team talk responses, press conference responses, weather, the physics of the ball, and god knows what else. Each of those decisions would have a different weight for each factor, and the match engine isn't even fully capable of figuring out whether it's a good decision or not (altho it tries to do an approximation - otherwise the "decisions" player attribute couldn't exist). On top of that, there's the AI manager module deciding how to react to the game, and again, it does not KNOW whether the tactical changes it does are good or not - they use an approximation to figure it out. The players themselves go on morale trips throughout the match, by reacting to the way the game unfolds. Every single of those factors have different weights, inputted in different ways, at different stages of the game, and are so intrinsically dependent on the result of each other, that it's impossible to predict how they'll affect each other.

Now, how on earth are they going to cut through this incredibly complicated process and tell you "the weight"?

This is a pretty accurate description of the issues involved with weighting and explains why you will never get an explanatuion of exactly what you are asking for from the developers, even if they wanted to.

They can't tell you the weight because that's not how it works. Indeed, if they'd be able to tell you "tactics have a weight of 40%", I'd be worried. That would mean the match engine would be cheating!

The game is simulated from each kick of the ball from the first to the very last minute of the game. Every single split-second decision each player makes depends on tactics, their attributes (visible, hidden and PPMs), form, morale, team talk responses, press conference responses, weather, the physics of the ball, and god knows what else. Each of those decisions would have a different weight for each factor, and the match engine isn't even fully capable of figuring out whether it's a good decision or not (altho it tries to do an approximation - otherwise the "decisions" player attribute couldn't exist). On top of that, there's the AI manager module deciding how to react to the game, and again, it does not KNOW whether the tactical changes it does are good or not - they use an approximation to figure it out. The players themselves go on morale trips throughout the match, by reacting to the way the game unfolds. Every single of those factors have different weights, inputted in different ways, at different stages of the game, and are so intrinsically dependent on the result of each other, that it's impossible to predict how they'll affect each other.

Now, how on earth are they going to cut through this incredibly complicated process and tell you "the weight"?

Great post that!

As he says its impossible to answer your question, which is why it is ignored by SI devs every year.

They can't tell you the weight because that's not how it works. Indeed, if they'd be able to tell you "tactics have a weight of 40%", I'd be worried. That would mean the match engine would be cheating!

The game is simulated from each kick of the ball from the first to the very last minute of the game. Every single split-second decision each player makes depends on tactics, their attributes (visible, hidden and PPMs), form, morale, team talk responses, press conference responses, weather, the physics of the ball, and god knows what else. Each of those decisions would have a different weight for each factor, and the match engine isn't even fully capable of figuring out whether it's a good decision or not (altho it tries to do an approximation - otherwise the "decisions" player attribute couldn't exist). On top of that, there's the AI manager module deciding how to react to the game, and again, it does not KNOW whether the tactical changes it does are good or not - they use an approximation to figure it out. The players themselves go on morale trips throughout the match, by reacting to the way the game unfolds. Every single of those factors have different weights, inputted in different ways, at different stages of the game, and are so intrinsically dependent on the result of each other, that it's impossible to predict how they'll affect each other.

Now, how on earth are they going to cut through this incredibly complicated process and tell you "the weight"?

Well put. That was actually the meaning behind mt pithy little mystical aphorism above - I couldn't be bothered with spelling out the logic!

Actually, once a highlight is loaded, what happens in it is pre-set. This is because the highlight is a representation of ME calculations. Therefore, decisions aren't actually made as you watch them.

I agree with everything else, though.

Well, the decisions aren't made as we watch no, but they were made in the same dynamic touch-by-touch way and recorded, then displayed to us. For all intents and purposes it's the same thing, we're just watching a replay.

I'm pretty certain that this isn't going to happen. Closed unless an SI employee feels they are able to explain.

Cheers

Matt