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Very reluctant Accusation about the game fixing Match results.


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And regardig the 30 reruns not happening in real life. Obviously no, but bookmakers odds are based on hypothetical reruns. If a bookie offers 2-1 on a victory then they are saying that they think a team will win about 1 in 4 times (as they build a margin in).!

But what the odds don't reflect is the underlying distribution. The following would give you the same odds at the bookie:

(a) Every time you rerun, Blackpool win with 0.75 probability, and Preston win with 0.25 probability.

(b) A seed was generated beforehand, which the bookies do not yet know: it had a 0.75 probability of generating a Blackpool win every time, and a 0.25 probability of generating a Preston win every time.

Obviously, the prospects should you reload in those two situations are vastly different.

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i too have noticed similar, however i have not replayed it 30 times so i cant comment with the same degree of accuracy as the poster of this thread. i do think though that the amount of repeats and the nature of the draws/losses mean that something fishy is going on. i dont think you can really say its because hes a crap manager when you are looking at a sample of 30 games, as the laws of averages (and the odds on the game) indicate that some wins should happen.

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It's probably something you said... I have a suspicion, not empirically tested by any means, that any time I say in a press conference that we are definitely going to win, especially if a kind of a 'we'll crush them' type of way then I am absolutely guaranteed to lose. It probably just enrages the other team to play better, or something.

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It's probably something you said... I have a suspicion, not empirically tested by any means, that any time I say in a press conference that we are definitely going to win, especially if a kind of a 'we'll crush them' type of way then I am absolutely guaranteed to lose. It probably just enrages the other team to play better, or something.

Also puts pressure on any of your weak-minded players to perform.

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There is nothing predetermined - maybe in some situations things are unrealistically unbalanced in favour of one team through a combination of X, Y and Z making a victory unlikely but it's never the case that the code simply decides that one team isn't going to win beforehand.

I believe that is probably true. Problem is I also believe that X, Y and Z includes things like you having too many wins taking into account the quality of players you have and the opposition having not won in too long. :D

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"when you look at all of the variables at play going into the match, it just might be that the chances of you winning are extremely slim, somewhere around 1%."

I said something like this during FM6 when my title winning team couldn't beat an inferior Chelsea in something like 30 attempts, including going on holiday for a day. All I got was advice on how to play (I'd just won the league!) and dumb comments (Cleon!) like "off course it's predetermined - the game's calculated and you're watching a recording that only changes when you change tactics! Duh!

In my experience of various experiments down the ages, this problem doesn't seem to affect many games, but sometimes going into games causes, as our new MBE suggests may be the case, an unrealistic advantage has been given to one team. No doubt it benefits the human as often as the AI (at least, I hope it does!). Also, teamtalk effects are overcooked in my opinion, leading to similar problems to whatever may be besetting the op.

As the God-like Ov Collyer says: “There is nothing predetermined - maybe in some situations things are unrealistically unbalanced in favour of one team through a combination of X, Y and Z making a victory unlikely but it's never the case that the code simply decides that one team isn't going to win beforehand.”

Of course, nothing is DELIBERATELY predetermined, but if “a combination of X, Y and Z making a victory unlikely” then, is some situations, it effectively IS predetermined, or at least as good as. This, surely, is what some of the constant tweaking of variables from patch to patch, game to game, is intended to avoid.

At last, we can actually say these things without a wall of sneering and, as the op says, “you’re a crap manager” accusations. Until now it’s been like being an atheist in medieval Europe, or a pro-Westerner in Mao’s China.

Well done to OrangUtanStan, the mods that joined in and the sudden and unexpected raft of reasonable posters on this thread for dragging this forum into the realms of the enlightenment!

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I think the OP has already unwittingly given a clue to the reasons for his complaint.

By saving as you are about to enter the match and then continually restarting from that point there are a number of fundamentals that you aren't changing, e.g. importance of the match, complacency in certain players at that point, motivation of the opposition and all those and more for each individual in each team.

Theoretically if you restarted from an earlier point all those factors would change and in this particular match the outcome could be very different.

Unfortunately so would all your other matches so you could end up worse off overall

If this is the case, you are providing little assurance. Instead, all you are saying is that past a certain point (sometime on the match day), all the relevant factors have been taken into account and the match is effectively decided, regardless of your tactics, team talks, subs, etc. Of course we can't change what happened in previous days, but we should be able to affect the outcome of the game with the tools at one's disposal at game time. However, you're just suggesting that we can't - given the effect of previous variables - in which case, what the hell's the point of tactics and team talks anyway?

And if you choose to argue that tactics and teams talks do have a considerable effect, then your above post becomes irrelevant and contradictory.

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This is perhaps one reason why the matches should be played in real-time, without precalculating the outcome behind the scenes. I guess it isn't possible to achieve at this point, but it should be the ideal ME to aim for.

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If this is the case, you are providing little assurance. Instead, all you are saying is that past a certain point (sometime on the match day), all the relevant factors have been taken into account and the match is effectively decided, regardless of your tactics, team talks, subs, etc. Of course we can't change what happened in previous days, but we should be able to affect the outcome of the game with the tools at one's disposal at game time. However, you're just suggesting that we can't - given the effect of previous variables - in which case, what the hell's the point of tactics and team talks anyway?

And if you choose to argue that tactics and teams talks do have a considerable effect, then your above post becomes irrelevant and contradictory.

Not necessarily. I agree that there's a lot of stuff going on beforee the match (that you can't undo a few hours before the match starts, much like in real life), but tehre's still plenty you CAN do to turn things around. It's not one or the other.

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Not necessarily. I agree that there's a lot of stuff going on beforee the match (that you can't undo a few hours before the match starts, much like in real life), but tehre's still plenty you CAN do to turn things around. It's not one or the other.

Yes, but I wasn't responding to you - I was responding to Kris. In his post he implied that the reasons for all those losses were the conditions prior to setting up the tactics and kick off, which could not be changed. I'm suggesting that obviously, there should be things one can do to affect the outcome of the game regardless of what happened before. whereas Kris is saying that the variables leading up to the match determine the outcome of the game even before the teams are sent out onto the pitch.

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Yes, but I wasn't responding to you - I was responding to Kris. In his post he implied that the reasons for all those losses were the conditions prior to setting up the tactics and kick off, which could not be changed. I'm suggesting that obviously, there should be things one can do to affect the outcome of the game regardless of what happened before. whereas Kris is saying that the variables leading up to the match determine the outcome of the game even before the teams are sent out onto the pitch.

No he didn't.

What he said was the chosen variables leading up the game that the OP couldn't change (Because his save was past that stage) led to a match calculation that seems to be very difficult to win given what you can change.

FWIW if the save is uploaded I'm confident other people will be able to win the match.

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I'm not sure whether uploading the savegame will help. I sometimes transport savegames from PC to laptop and then the matches ahead just end completely different. Seems like a kind of randomized number within the game that is not transported with the savegame.

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If this is the case, you are providing little assurance. Instead, all you are saying is that past a certain point (sometime on the match day), all the relevant factors have been taken into account and the match is effectively decided, regardless of your tactics, team talks, subs, etc. Of course we can't change what happened in previous days, but we should be able to affect the outcome of the game with the tools at one's disposal at game time. However, you're just suggesting that we can't - given the effect of previous variables - in which case, what the hell's the point of tactics and team talks anyway?

And if you choose to argue that tactics and teams talks do have a considerable effect, then your above post becomes irrelevant and contradictory.

No, I'm saying that many of the conditions are set by the time you click go to match i.e. the mental ones mostly, you do have tools to alter the outcome and the fact that the OP got some draws rather than all defeats lends credence to that.

FM isn't very helpful in giving clues as to what actions you can take to affect the outcome even if you read the situation correctly, but that isn't so different from real life.

Trial and error are your educational tools, damned painful experience too:)

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No he didn't.

What he said was the chosen variables leading up the game that the OP couldn't change (Because his save was past that stage) led to a match calculation that seems to be very difficult to win given what you can change.

*sigh*

Yes, he did. If 'very difficult to win' means no wins in 30 matches, then my statement that "Kris is saying that the variables leading up to the match determine the outcome of the game" is completely accurate.

This, if it is the case, would be a major problem. While pre-match conditions should have some effect on the game, they shouldn't be so strong as to nullify any tactical alterations or team talks.

No, I'm saying that many of the conditions are set by the time you click go to match i.e. the mental ones mostly, you do have tools to alter the outcome and the fact that the OP got some draws rather than all defeats lends credence to that.

That's not any better. If all you can do heading into a match with a result effectively predetermined by other conditions, is gain an occasional draw instead of a loss - then the game is horribly flawed and as I've said - you've provided little assurance. In fact, if what you're saying is true, it would be a completely game breaking flaw. Such inflexibility is terrible and would only work to highlight the uselessness of tactics, which are one of the cores of the game.

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There is nothing predetermined - maybe in some situations things are unrealistically unbalanced in favour of one team through a combination of X, Y and Z making a victory unlikely but it's never the case that the code simply decides that one team isn't going to win beforehand.

Well, to be honest something needs to be done and quickly and even with 10.3.

I am beginning to feel the same way with my West Ham side.

I always give up goals no matter what and I lose absurd leads from 2 or 3 goals up.

Like the OP said, I too begin to notice that sometimes the way things go are just totally unrealistic and absolutely random.

If X, Y and Z really stop us from winning games in an unrealistic and unlabanced manner, then please tone it down heavily.

FM has become too difficult for the average gamer. I have 3 friends who play FM, I have my father, brother (who quit) and my nephew who also play. That is six people, and they all find the game incredibly difficult and random even with top clubs.

I feel FM is beginning to isolate all the casual gamers out there, even with these preset tactics and the new tactics design - the game is still very random.

I tend to see that team talks can be disasterous when they should not be. I shouldn't lose a game because of a team talk nor should I win a game with one either - and if it does happen, it should happen on rare occasions.

Usually 2-0 or 3-0 down should demoralize a team to the point of a VERY rare possibility of a come back.

In FM, even with 5 minutes to go, I am up 3-0 and I can predict it will more than likely end 3-2 or even 3-3 with minutes to go.

I play conservative football, possession football when I am winning comfortably, yet I wait for the inevitable crumble.

So I urge you SI to tone down these issues for 10.3 even if it takes a little longer to release the patch.

Please tone down the effects of negative morale, team talks and these extreeme come backs that seem to occur all the time.

I initially thought that this was a thing of the past, but now I can see that there really is a big problem with this game and I know many won't agree, but the problem is there.

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It happens to me every season. I start out flying, 1 or 2 up until January-February. And then I hit a wall.

A draw here and a loss there to bottom-half or relegation bound clubs. Maybe squeak out a win.

I always get out of it by changing tactics for a few games (different formation and style each game) and then switching back to my regular dominating tactic after 3-4 games. Usually gets my players back to the top of their game by the time continental competition resumes in February.

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I don't think the fact the OP has saved the game after the press conference means that he has saved the effects of the press conference. This might be the reason your team is playing badly. Or it could just be because the team coming up against you had an advantage over motivation or morale. It could also be because they have tactics the nullify yours (I'm not sure, but this is just conjecture.) I too have had games like these, against weaker opposition who I have destroyed earlier in the season, and they have often come off a run of wins or a long undefeated run. If this is the case with you, then maybe your players are overconfident and don't try as hard, or nervous trying to preserve that record and end up making mistakes. I had a case like this against Sunderland, on the back of 7 straight wins. They won 4-1, then I bounced back winning the next 3 games on the trot against difficult opposition. I forgot to save the games before turning off, so when I restarted I beat them 4-0!? Before losing the next game 2-1 at Arsenal, a game I had won 3-0 before. These results really confused me, but I don't think the game is ever set up against you. If I would hazard a guess, it is probably because your team has weak hidden mental stats.

But I think the best way of settling this would be to upload the game so people could come to their own conclusion. If the vast majority of people also get losses then there is probably something wrong here.

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Well, to be honest something needs to be done and quickly and even with 10.3.

I am beginning to feel the same way with my West Ham side.

I always give up goals no matter what and I lose absurd leads from 2 or 3 goals up.

Like the OP said, I too begin to notice that sometimes the way things go are just totally unrealistic and absolutely random.

If X, Y and Z really stop us from winning games in an unrealistic and unlabanced manner, then please tone it down heavily.

FM has become too difficult for the average gamer. I have 3 friends who play FM, I have my father, brother (who quit) and my nephew who also play. That is six people, and they all find the game incredibly difficult and random even with top clubs.

I feel FM is beginning to isolate all the casual gamers out there, even with these preset tactics and the new tactics design - the game is still very random.

I tend to see that team talks can be disasterous when they should not be. I shouldn't lose a game because of a team talk nor should I win a game with one either - and if it does happen, it should happen on rare occasions.

Usually 2-0 or 3-0 down should demoralize a team to the point of a VERY rare possibility of a come back.

In FM, even with 5 minutes to go, I am up 3-0 and I can predict it will more than likely end 3-2 or even 3-3 with minutes to go.

I play conservative football, possession football when I am winning comfortably, yet I wait for the inevitable crumble.

So I urge you SI to tone down these issues for 10.3 even if it takes a little longer to release the patch.

Please tone down the effects of negative morale, team talks and these extreeme come backs that seem to occur all the time.

I initially thought that this was a thing of the past, but now I can see that there really is a big problem with this game and I know many won't agree, but the problem is there.

Totally agree with this hope SI take note and fix :-)

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I guess OrangUtanStan smashed his screen and is now at the doctor's to receive treatment for his broken hand.

Hmmm, not really no, I'm not an emotionally fraglie child at all really :thup:

What I am is someone who doesnt know how to upload a save.... anyone point me in the direction of some instructions please ?

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I play conservative football, possession football when I am winning comfortably, yet I wait for the inevitable crumble.

I hate to say it, but have you considered your tactics? A conservative tactic can be/is easily undone by attacking, pressing, hard-tackling, quick-tempo football, a tactic a losing team will be likely to employ when trailing.

I don't think it's the game because I (and a lot of other people) don't have this problem at all.

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Thanks, whilst I'm being a bit nooby can you tell me where the save files are found please ? Are they .pkm ?

They're in the "My Documents" folder on the C: part of your hard drive.

For me (on XP), it's C:\Documents and Settings\<my name>\My Documents\Sports Interactive\Football Manager 2010\games

Hope that helps!

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They're in the "My Documents" folder on the C: part of your hard drive.

For me (on XP), it's C:\Documents and Settings\<my name>\My Documents\Sports Interactive\Football Manager 2010\games

Hope that helps!

Unless you are using steam in which case something like C:\Steam\steam apps\sports interactive\FM10\games

If you struggling to find it open explorer and use the find/search option if you know the name of the save.

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Hello SI. Long time player of the original CM / FM series.

Now playing as Blackpool under the 10.2 patch.

Everything was going fine, really enjoying the game until the following events occurred.

Was 11th in table with a HOME game against regional rivals Preston.

The Match odds favoured us, though my assistant manager thought Preston might edge it despite their poor run of away results and the fact they 20th in the table (game being played in late October).

Set-up team and played the game. Am 3-1 up after 84 minutes, joy. However FM2010 had other ideas up its sleeve. Final score 3-5 (Preston scoring 4 goals in the last 6 minutes and 3 minutes of stoppage time). Now in all my time playing CM/FM I've never quit and restplayed a game, but this time I was tempted and fell to the temptation.

So I quit FM without saving and replayed the game. Another loss.

Tried again - different players and tactics, a loss.

And again. And again. And again.

I admit to having become obsessed now,as I've now replayed this match 30 (yes THIRTY) times. Its not about getting the win now, its the grim fascination with the fact that whatever players I use, whatever tactics I employ FM2001 will NOT let me get a victory.

Remember, this is me playing at HOME against a team 9 places lower than me in the league.

In the 30 times I've replayed this I've had 9 draws and 21 losses. In 4 of the 9 draws I was 1 or 2 goals ahead going into the last 5 or 6 minutes of normal time, in each of these cases the Preston team equalised with the very last play of the ball (often from corners, despite me setting my team up to have 10 men back for corners).

This CANNOT be correct. In real life I would expect at least one win in 30 attempts, I'm not a bad manager, and have beaten some of the 'big names' in the Chapionship already....

I've tried attacking play, defensive play, I've tried using the players suggested by my Assistant Manager, I've tried no teamtalks and all permutations of team talks. I've tried everything, to no avail.

I an now really concerned that FM2010 is not what it pupports to be and that the it has pre-decided I will not win the game.

If this is true then I can no longer play the FM game as there is no point if whatever players and tactics I employ are in effect meaningless.

Please tell me I am wrong SI.

In the meantime I am going to continue to replay this match. I've set myself a limit of 150 attempts for the sake of my sanity....

Please... no posts saying 'you must be a crap manager' etc....:thup:

Your a crap manager

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Wooow!

Was this not my thread in the last FM :) hehehe not be able to win against Inter hehe

I don't know your problem, I need the save to look at it. I just got a lucky win away, 1:2 (2 curios penalty for me, if you ask me, I would never give this as penalty) and I am happy.

I don't have this issue with FM, only the SuperGK. But now when I see it, it are not the SuperGK, but stupid striker. They are getting in the box and are not able to place the shoot in the corner, just blasting the ball in the middle of the goal, there where the GK is. Funny

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Right here is the link to the saved game. It was saved on Matchday.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ZUW5ZKEX

(my thanks to Tomer for explaining to me how to do this)

Regarding my tactics -> I've default back to a 442 here, I dont use downloaded tactics, only my own. In my 30 (now 36) attempts to get a win I've tried many different tactics, focused passing etc.

Now, as a poster said above, sometimes when a pkm is uploaded to another PC it seems to change the outcome, maybe that will happen I dont know.

Now if some of you DO manage to get a win then as far as I'm concerned that's great. Maybe I will prove to be a 'crap manager'.

My team has just beat Newcastle 4-1 though so I cant be all bad.

My point will still stand in that 'I' should be able to get 1 win in 36 games playing at HOME to a team below me in the league.

The fact that 'I' cant, even if you guys can, does not make me want to continue with this version of FM, and I expect many casual-to-ok players like myself out there might agree.

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Firstly, congratulations to everyone on a fascinating and informative thread that hasn't descended into childish name-calling.

Secondly, we're all forgetting that if there can be a combination of x, y and z that leads to it being 99% impossible to win then the chances are that there are games when x, y and z work for us and we have only a 1% chance of losing. Obviously this doesn't mean it shouldn't be addressed but how many of us win a match by 4 or 5 goals (or by a fantastic comeback) and decide to replay it because it wasn't fair on the AI? :)

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This made me laugh. What did you title your thread again ...
Firstly, congratulations to everyone on a fascinating and informative thread that hasn't descended into childish name-calling.

Secondly, we're all forgetting that if there can be a combination of x, y and z that leads to it being 99% impossible to win then the chances are that there are games when x, y and z work for us and we have only a 1% chance of losing. Obviously this doesn't mean it shouldn't be addressed but how many of us win a match by 4 or 5 goals (or by a fantastic comeback) and decide to replay it because it wasn't fair on the AI? :)

Hi, thats not the point though. I'm not trying to get the 3 points now, I want to see if this game works as its been described to me by SI.

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Sorry if my post has been misconstrued, it was mostly just meant as devil's advocate balancing post. I recognise that the result isn't important for you now and I'm very interested to see how your experiment now works out. I would have done the same thing myself years ago, but I think my patience ran out at about 10 games. As I said, I don't want the game to be unbalanced one way or the other (there's no pleasure in winning if you know you have an 95% chance before a ball is kicked).

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Sorry if my post has been misconstrued, it was mostly just meant as devil's advocate balancing post. I recognise that the result isn't important for you now and I'm very interested to see how your experiment now works out. I would have done the same thing myself years ago, but I think my patience ran out at about 10 games. As I said, I don't want the game to be unbalanced one way or the other (there's no pleasure in winning if you know you have an 95% chance before a ball is kicked).

No worries OC. It just concerns me that depsite my team's morale being better than that of Prestons, and me playing at home, and despite what players I field and what tactics I use, and despite a very neutral press conference, the game 'appears' to have pre-decided that the MOST I will get from this game is a DRAW. That cannot be right.

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I would like to ask an SI member to upload my .pkm and make some form of comment please. FM2010 is a game that demands a lot of time and effort from its player. To do that I've got to feel that what players and tactics I utilise in a game will actually give me a chance of winning it.

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Firstly, congratulations to everyone on a fascinating and informative thread that hasn't descended into childish name-calling.

Secondly, we're all forgetting that if there can be a combination of x, y and z that leads to it being 99% impossible to win then the chances are that there are games when x, y and z work for us and we have only a 1% chance of losing. Obviously this doesn't mean it shouldn't be addressed but how many of us win a match by 4 or 5 goals (or by a fantastic comeback) and decide to replay it because it wasn't fair on the AI? :)

cause when we do it, it is down to our tactical brilliance. duh!

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My results against Preston with your Bpool-savegame without changing anything:

3-4, 1-1, 0-4, 2-2, 3-2

My results against Preston with your Bpool-savegame with a 4-4-2 counter tactic of mine:

1-1, 2-3, 3-3, 1-1, 1-1

My results against Preston with your Bpool-savegame with a 4-5-1 attacking tactic of mine:

0-3, 5-0, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1

My results against Preston with your Bpool-savegame with a 3-5-2 control tactic of mine:

1-3, 0-0, 2-4, 3-2, 1-1

I just holidayed the matches. The results show that you can win this game but as I mentioned earlier, I believe there's some kind of random number within the game and not the savegame that contributes to how a game ends. So my experience is probably not the same that you have.

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to be honest... orangutanstan it seems like you have already made your decision on whether the game is cheating you or not...

it has already been mentioned that previous form, fitness, morale , team selection , tactics , formation and any number of things make a difference to how a game will pan out...

on paper when you pit stoke against arsenal , you would expect arsenal to win every time... but thats not taking into consideration the fact that stoke will bully arsenal all over the pitch....

my very long winded point is this, football can with certain teams be like rock/paper/scissors.. your team might not be suited to playing the opposition team you are against?.. i dunno.. just a thought..

i think the best idea on here is to use fmrte.. set your fitness to 100%, make your players world class and then see if you cant win... if the game is hardcoded with a 'lose on all accounts' feature... you cant possibly win against them.. even with world class players....

this will nullify the whole arguement straight out... but seriously, I wonder if anyone who has ever claimed foul play and that they are going to quit the game ever actually has....

but i agree... its nice to come across a thread that hasnt descended into a flaming war, and thats to be commended :thup:

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to be honest... orangutanstan it seems like you have already made your decision on whether the game is cheating you or not...

it has already been mentioned that previous form, fitness, morale , team selection , tactics , formation and any number of things make a difference to how a game will pan out...

on paper when you pit stoke against arsenal , you would expect arsenal to win every time... but thats not taking into consideration the fact that stoke will bully arsenal all over the pitch....

my very long winded point is this, football can with certain teams be like rock/paper/scissors.. your team might not be suited to playing the opposition team you are against?.. i dunno.. just a thought..

i think the best idea on here is to use fmrte.. set your fitness to 100%, make your players world class and then see if you cant win... if the game is hardcoded with a 'lose on all accounts' feature... you cant possibly win against them.. even with world class players....

this will nullify the whole arguement straight out... but seriously, I wonder if anyone who has ever claimed foul play and that they are going to quit the game ever actually has....

but i agree... its nice to come across a thread that hasnt descended into a flaming war, and thats to be commended :thup:

All fair points. I'm afraid I'm not quite articulate enough to quite explain what I'm trying to say.

I dont really want to be making an accusation of anything against SI and at the end of the day its just a game and will have limitations.

I'm really trying to work out why in 36 goes I've not got a win. If I am THAT bad a manager then fair enough. If the game needs tweaking for the next patch then this is all useful for SI isnt it.

At the moment 37th try I'm 2-0 up after 25 mins, I'm excited... but I wonder if I will get a win !?

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