Detailed experiment of youth development - Troubling results

[Masenyah]

This problem might be a knock-on effect from the lowering of scout/coach accuracy that occurred in 8.0.1. Simply, most low CA/high PA/low Rep players are not spotted by scouts from good teams and as such never get a chance to play at clubs with decent coaches and training facilities and thus never grow in CA.

What needs to be found is a balance between this and the unrealistic situation in 07 where every player reached their PA by the age of 20.

[kaNovi]

Please KUTGW !!!

Very interesting as i am doing the dafuge challenge, i am now in 2020.. almost all players on the english squad is regens..

[Wakers]

I don't think that every player with potential has to be blossom into a good player. If he's lazy or even just unlucky he may never get anywhere near his full potential.

This is some great work buddy! keep it up

[route1]

A very interesting and articulate thread. If only there were more like this and less "WTF!? SI HAVE RUINED MY LIFE" type posts.

Will follow this with interest. Good luck with it!

[SiN8]

Please disregard...testing new formatting method

123 \t 3435 \t 6234 \t 2623

12 \t 2345 \t 1 \t 2

[Dr_dR3]

It's a shame that regens are a mayor troublepoint again. After years and years of different flaws, the regens in the last FM 2006 patch and in FM 2007 were very good. Not spot on, some minor flaws but all in all very playable.

I did some tests as well for FM 2007. Topic still might be around here somewhere.

It seems that now SI decided to redo the training system, everything has gone to waste and we're back where we were before FM 2006. I'm not pretending to be more wise that the SI-staff (far from) but a new training module should only be implented if it doesn't cause any problems in terms of player's developement.

[Lyssien]

Maybe, just maybe, what you are seeing with Dean Vaughn means that 20 year olds should not be playing all the time, because their progress then halts?

[LutonNil]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Lyssien:

Maybe, just maybe, what you are seeing with Dean Vaughn means that 20 year olds should not be playing all the time, because their progress then halts? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's what I'm thinking.

In my current game some reserve players values are £45K-£55K and they only make a few sub appearances for the first team.

First team players who make around 35-40 appearances per season are only worth £3k

Don't want to check CA/PA for them as it could give me an unfair advantage.

Maybe training is more beneficial than playing?

[T-Bag]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by LutonNil:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Lyssien:

Maybe, just maybe, what you are seeing with Dean Vaughn means that 20 year olds should not be playing all the time, because their progress then halts? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's what I'm thinking.

In my current game some reserve players values are £45K-£55K and they only make a few sub appearances for the first team.

First team players who make around 35-40 appearances per season are only worth £3k

Don't want to check CA/PA for them as it could give me an unfair advantage.

Maybe training is more beneficial than playing? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I don't think it is. Because I have become bored of the game I have taken to cheating by using mini scout to view CA/PA. The only way CA seems to rise is by playing them regular in the first team at a high level - even out on loan in a lower division you are lucky to see CA rise by more than about 5 in a season.

I loaned some players out to League one who had CA of around 100-110 but with PA in the region of 180-190. The AI doesn't even play them most of the time - the ones left in my reserves have seen no increase in CA at all.

The ones who I am playing often in my first team, but not enough to tire them out, are getting around 15 CA increase per season.

It seems the AI are only willing to play players based on their CA alone and don't take into account the PA of the player and are not willing to give them a chance. Once they are forced into playing these players they do see a CA increase and eventually become decent.

[SiN8]

Savegame 5: August 1, 2015

Total number of players: 52331...53322...53260...55119...55755

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10....7

180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41....41

170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110...123

160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94....93

190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0.....0

180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0.....0

170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0.....0

160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0.....1

150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0.....1

140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2.....2

130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18....22

120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77....76

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666.....1357.....1033.....947.....944

All-around athletes* : 113.....117.....38.....34.....36

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 6.....5.....3.....5.....10

180 - 189 PA: 39....29....21....19....31

170 - 179 PA: 92....110...99....79....89

160 - 169 PA: 227...189...139...93....80

190 - 200 CA: 0.....3.....2.....0.....0

180 - 189 CA: 2.....3.....3.....1.....0

170 - 179 CA: 15....25....24....9.....4

160 - 169 CA: 24....65....57....17....23

150 - 159 CA: 60....156...133...95....51

140 - 149 CA: 173...280...290...182...136

130 - 139 CA: 353...540...475...356...234

120 - 129 CA: 746...821...818...539...423

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016.....1300.....811.....564.....464

All-around athletes* : 366.....331.....211.....139.....99

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 1.....5.....4.....6.....6

180 - 189 CA: 18....23....28....16....10

170 - 179 CA: 68....95....105...97....84

Wasted Potential

Players who underachieved*: 302.....222.....104.....104.....120

*Defined as players between 27 and 30 whose PA >= 150, but their PA - CA >= 20. These players are in their peak years, but have not come close to reaching their potential.

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1273..1280..1168..905...650

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11....2

Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Deigo Cavalieri[32] - 173 CA

Highest CA without caps: Alexandre Pato[25] - 188 CA

England

Players under 25 with international caps: 13....7.....4.....3.....2

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....5.....1.....0

Spain

Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....5.....4.....2.....6

Undeserved Callup - Joni, a regen, with 124/131 has been called up 6 times!! He has a rating of 6.32 in 2013 season for At. Madrid.

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....7.....5.....3.....0

Italy

Players under 25 with international caps: 5.....9.....10....1.....2

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....2.....1

Biggest Snub - Mario Balotelli[24] - 169 CA

France

Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....7.....6.....3.....1

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....2.....6.....1.....0

Germany

Players under 25 with international caps: 16....8.....1.....0.....2

Undeserved Callup - Viktor Kruse with 131/133 has been called up twice

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....2.....1.....0

Holland

Players under 25 with international caps: 20....10....7.....2.....0

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....1.....1.....0

Brazil

Players under 25 with international caps: 21....13....9.....4.....2

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....4.....3.....0

Argentina

Players under 25 with international caps: 18....13....8.....3.....1

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....0.....0

Analysis

The stats for under-21 are starting to stablize as all the real players have aged out. The regens do indeed have low CA. The PA for the 21-24 players do also match up with the under-21 PAs. It seems that researchers have a bias to assign higher PAs than what the regen system does. As you progress in the game, there are only 200 player between 21-24 with >= 160 PA. The researchers had this number at 350.

The CA keeps on decreasing for 21-24 age group. A couple of more years down the line and we'll also see this number stabilize out. Again, either the researchers overinflated numbers or the development system isn't panning out.

Quality players are still being snubbed by national teams. A couple of notables are Pato, Ben Arfa, Higuain, Kroos, Aissati, Lulinha, Menez, Banega, Cavani and Aaron. All of them have >= 170 CA with Pato at 188 CA. How does Brazil and Italy both snub Pato for so long? Also, due to the lack of development, we are hardly seeing anyone under 25 capable playing for a national side.

We are also seeing a slight increase in underachieving players.

[Lyvean]

Is the "National teams do not pick the best players" a known problem? If that is so, this is another showstopping bug. Can we assume this is a problem as the above analysis has shown?

[Qceng]

I've just done a test at the regen generation point (19th June in england) and the number of fantastic regens is low to non existant.

I reloaded 20-25 times and only got very, very few players who fit my criteria of someone who will become outstanding at a relatively young age (22-23).

Criteria: PA is always 180+.

age: 15.0 - 70+ CA

age: 16.0 - 85+ CA

It's difficult to imagine that in 20-25 years maybe only 2-3 players exist that will reach 175+ CA at a reasonable age, I'm not even saying 20 like Messi or Fabregas, but more like 22-23 but this is the scenario that's playing out. Even the game itself starts with 3 in the first year (lulinha, Kroos and Banega) and then nothing.

I think this needs a bit of calibration by SI.

[Qceng]

Just to add:

Banega: age 19.0 - 133 CA

Kroos: age 17.7 - 120 CA

Good luck getting regens that reach those figures at that age, particularly Kroos.

[Erithtotl]

I'd like to emphasize even ignoring the CA/PA ratio, the lack of physical skills in regens is a huge problem. It's very difficult to find a regen who doesn't have lower league physical stats after about 10 years of game time.

[kaNovi]

Seriously, its hardly THAT big of a deal.. i found there are some good players in my long term game, and i can say its not ruining one bit of my game.

Look at some of these players i have:

Becker

Field

Ormaetxea

Romero

Clark

Mendes

Bradshaw

Couno

Veldhuizen

[T-Bag]

There you go, most of the players you have posted are mid twenties or above.

I've noticed the U21 teams are not picking the high PA players either. They are only picking players based on their CA. This means that none of them actually go on to play for the full international teams, becuase most have a PA of about 120-140. The other players are taking so long to develop they don't get into the national teams until they are much older.

My 198 PA regen was French and played for the U21's but because they were playing a 33 year old Anelka and 32(?)Cisse up front he didn't get picked, and has now gone to play for Cameroon instead.

[kaNovi]

well it was more a pointing out of the players in my game are just as good as the players in the start of the game

[PMLF]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">My 198 PA regen was French and played for the U21's but because they were playing a 33 year old Anelka and 32(?)Cisse up front he didn't get picked, and has now gone to play for Cameroon instead. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Old players should retire from int'l football more often in the game.

[SiN8]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by kaNovi:

well it was more a pointing out of the players in my game are just as good as the players in the start of the game </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

From looking at their stats, I wouldn't rate any of those players as world-class. Their physical attributes are much too low.

[SiN8]

Tracking players - Savegame 5

Lulinha - 25 yr - AMC - Roma

2007 - 104/187

2009 - 133/187

2011 - 150/187

2013 - 174/187

2015 - 176/187

The next two season saw Lulinha play 39 league games for Napoli, but his rating was just 6.35. Subsequently, Napoli sold him to Roma for 9.75m pounds in July 2015. Lulinha's development pretty much stalled after gaining only 2 CA. Although an excellent player, he probably will never reach his full potential. Too bad since he still has not been called up by Brazil.

Dean Vaughn - 24 yr - DC - Chivas USA

2007 - 66/189

2009 - 68/189

2011 - 73/189

2013 - 82/189

2015 - 98/189

Dean was signed for free by Real Salt Lake in the MLS. However, he played only 2 games before he was released. Luckily, Chivas USA signed Dean and quickly made him a starter. Dean so far played 25 games in the 2015 MLS season. The MLS experience actually allowed a 24 yr old Dean to develop faster than any other stage in his life. He might even break 100.

Thiago - 24 yr - MC - Inter

2007 - 90/173

2009 - 124/173

2011 - 151/173

2013 - 165/173

2015 - 168/173

Thiago proved me wrong by quickly breaking into the first XI. Over the two years, he played 72 games for Inter and 12 times for Brazil. This is made more remarkable since Thiago has not cracked the 170 CA mark. But he's playing well and should continue to have a great career.

[kaNovi]

Hmm you might be right, i cant find a single player who is listed as World Class or Wonderkid

[T-Bag]

I'm glad to see that they are actually coming close to their PA though. The main thing I love about FM is developing new players in the long term. It seems a bit slow but at least they get there in the end.

It's certainly not a show stopper but it does look like it needs tweaking by Si.

[Erithtotl]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by SiN8:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by kaNovi:

well it was more a pointing out of the players in my game are just as good as the players in the start of the game </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

From looking at their stats, I wouldn't rate any of those players as world-class. Their physical attributes are much too low. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Exactly, not a single player with a 15 in pace and jumping.

[Joor]

You have to look at players hidden stats; ambitions and professionalism . Your 80 ca 190 pa 17 year old youngster will never get anywere near hes PA if he does not have any ambitions. High professionelism = he likes to train hard ..which means fast progress over the years.

Also the clubs training facilites has a big impact too.

Tutoring youngsters with an old professional player is actually very usefull.

I did a quick test with milan, where I told Nesta to work with some 17 year old central defender(70 ca 155 PA) . He was had 11 professionalism, 12 ambition when I started the game - and now in the beginning of 3rd season he got 17 professionalism and 16 ambition... CA is 115.

[LutonNil]

Excellent experiment.

I have sort of changed my mind about this thread - I agreed 100% at the start but have thought a lot about it.

The fact that 2 out of your 3 players have almost reached their PA shows they can develop.

Most players in real life don't get anywhere near their full potential. Just recalling a few Man Utd players over recent years that had massive PA - you would think "where are they now?" or "WHO!!"

Grant Brebner, Phil Mulryne, Bodan Djordic, Michel Twiss, Luke Chadwick, Guiliano Maiorana (better than Giggs) and Ronnie Wallwork just to name a few.

I've just come to the conclusion that youth development is almost right and the current young players have been massively over-rated - especially in England. I wouldn't rate any of the England squad (barring Rooney) at anything over 160 CA and 170 PA.

People say Messi has a PA of 198 now in the game -- what would Pele, Best and Maradona be rated at then??

[SiDolman]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">have sort of changed my mind about this thread - I agreed 100% at the start but have thought a lot about it.

The fact that 2 out of your 3 players have almost reached their PA shows they can develop.

Most players in real life don't get anywhere near their full potential. Just recalling a few Man Utd players over recent years that had massive PA - you would think "where are they now?" or "WHO!!"

Grant Brebner, Phil Mulryne, Bodan Djordic, Michel Twiss, Luke Chadwick, Guiliano Maiorana (better than Giggs) and Ronnie Wallwork just to name a few. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

There should be players that dont reach their potential but the problem is that regen players do not get anywhere near their potential untill their late twenties (and their is a lack of them). Look at giggs he was near his potential at a early age, rooney was, in fact some players are better at a early age (owen, ronaldo).

I find this wont spoil my enjoyment of the game, ill just never play a game longer than 10 seasons because it just starts to look so unrealistic (which is the opposite of what fm has always tried to achieve).

I find it very strange that si never picked up on this, its as if they didnt have any testers playing games longer than a few seasons.

[SiN8]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by LutonNil:

Excellent experiment.

I have sort of changed my mind about this thread - I agreed 100% at the start but have thought a lot about it.

The fact that 2 out of your 3 players have almost reached their PA shows they can develop.

</div></BLOCKQUOTE>

The sample rate is quite small. Furthermore, both Lulinla and Thiago started off with good CA and high reputation. Dean started with 66 and never got picked up by a top club. Since most regens have low CA, they might be following in the footsteps of Dean Vaughn instead of Lulinha.

I'd rather base my conclusion on the overall numbers, which show a large decline in quality. Even though researchers can be biased, I still think that ratings are pretty good for this game. Therefore, regens should achieve a comparable level.

[SiDolman]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">People say Messi has a PA of 198 now in the game -- what would Pele, Best and Maradona be rated at then?? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

can hardly compare best with the other two, i think messi is a much better player

[Masenyah]

A Few of the regens I have n my team (some on loan from bigger clubs). I don't know their Ca/Pa but for their ages 18-21, these look good/great to me.

[LutonNil]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">can hardly compare best with the other two </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

These three are generally regarded as the best 3 players ever (I know you'll try to come up with alternatives) Cruyff, Garrincha, Steve Bull

What would Best have achieved if he played for Brazil

People seem to remember him for being an alcoholic

[Masenyah]

Here's a link to a 2034 savegame (It's not my own)

http://rapidshare.com/files/68216281/symulacja2032.fm.html

While the regens in that save game are on par with the best in the starting database, since there is now way of reggresing it, there is now way of really knowing how they got to be that way (wonderkids, late bloomers etc...) and as such doesn't answer any questions regarding development. However it allays any fears that 20 years in the future there will be a lack of quality players in the game.

[SiDolman]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">These three are generally regarded as the best 3 players ever (I know you'll try to come up with alternatives) Cruyff, Garrincha, Steve Bull

What would Best have achieved if he played for Brazil

People seem to remember him for being an alcoholic </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

sorry might seemed like i was being a bit pedantic but i just think he has always been a bit overrated.

why shouldn't a player such a messi get a pa of 198, why should he not be able reach the ability of the greats. Every generation has a batch of players that are probably just as good if not better than the batch before, athletes of all types get better and better.

[LutonNil]

I agree Messi could reach his potential (or get very close to it - 190+)

But looking back at the savegame 1 stats there are 96 players with a CA of 170+ , 123 in save 2 and 137 in save 3

This leads me to think that all players are currently over-rated - I don't believe there are 137 players in real life with a CA of 170+

For example a good Blue Square North player in the game has a CA of 40-50 -- way over-rated compared to an average Premier player CA of 120-130

The over-rating of current players is the thing that is screwing things up and I think the regen system over a length of time will even things up. You will still get world class players - this guy is close and there may be better players than him in this save.

Lulinha - 25 yr - AMC - Roma

2007 - 104/187

2009 - 133/187

2011 - 150/187

2013 - 174/187

2015 - 176/187

He could hit 180 in the next year or two which would make him world class in my opinion.

[SiDolman]

i can see where you are coming from in that there could bt too many young players at the start of the game which are overrrated, but to only have 2 u21 players over CA140 in 4th save, and only 4 over CA140 in the 5th save is completley wrong. Most big teams throughout europe probably have atleast 2 u21 players which are way over a CA140

[SiDolman]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">The over-rating of current players is the thing that is screwing things up and I think the regen system over a length of time will even things up. You will still get world class players - this guy is close and there may be better players than him in this save. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

The ratings will even themselves out in the end but who wants national teams full of grandads in the meantime

[cr4z3d]

Interesting experiment. I've been playing in the dafuge challenge and I have to say that I'm not seeing any wonderkids that are being signed by the big clubs like a Cristiano Ronaldo or Bojan type player.

But, I'm still enjoying the game, and it'll be much more interesting when those types of players pop-up once every 5 years or something.

However, I think you need to run all the divisions in those leagues to strengthen your argument, because the teams in the bottom division always end up loaning players.

Another reason for high CA youths is maybe that they are based in poor countries. In my game I tried signing a regen (who was jobless) from the US but couldn't get him due to work permit.

In conclusion, I think that there should be a couple of high CA/PA players regenerated every couple of years, cause your research does show that the CA of U-21 decreases thru the years.

[LutonNil]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by SiDolman:

i can see where you are coming from in that there could bt too many young players at the start of the game which are overrrated, but to only have 2 u21 players over CA140 in 4th save, and only 4 over CA140 in the 5th save is completley wrong. Most big teams throughout europe probably have atleast 2 u21 players which are way over a CA140 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

TBH I think 130-140 CA is a bit high for most U21's in real life anyway - with obvious exceptions

These players shouldn't be hitting their peak until 25/26

[SiDolman]

let me put it another way. In the 4th and 5th save there are 119 and 100 players with over CA170, but there are no u21's in these totals. Out of the best 119 players at the moment could you not name a few u21's?

[SiN8]

Savegame 6: August 1, 2017

Total number of players: 52331...53322...53260...55119...55755...55817

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10....7.....5

180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41....41....39

170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110...123...132

160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94....93....85

190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0

180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0

170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0.....0.....0

160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0.....1.....0

150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0.....1.....1

140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2.....2.....4

130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18....22....16

120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77....76....60

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666.....1357.....1033.....947.....944.....936

All-around athletes* : 113.....117.....38.....34.....36.....28

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 6.....5.....3.....5.....10....9

180 - 189 PA: 39....29....21....19....31....36

170 - 179 PA: 92....110...99....79....89....103

160 - 169 PA: 227...189...139...93....80....85

190 - 200 CA: 0.....3.....2.....0.....0.....0

180 - 189 CA: 2.....3.....3.....1.....0.....3

170 - 179 CA: 15....25....24....9.....4.....5

160 - 169 CA: 24....65....57....17....23....27

150 - 159 CA: 60....156...133...95....51....58

140 - 149 CA: 173...280...290...182...136...130

130 - 139 CA: 353...540...475...356...234...241

120 - 129 CA: 746...821...818...539...423...391

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016.....1300.....811.....564.....464.....423

All-around athletes* : 366.....331.....211.....139.....99.....79

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 1.....5.....4.....6.....6.....2

180 - 189 CA: 18....23....28....16....10....14

170 - 179 CA: 68....95....105...97....84....65

Wasted Potential

Players who underachieved*: 302.....222.....104.....104.....120.....135

*Defined as players between 27 and 30 whose PA >= 150, but their PA - CA >= 20. These players are in their peak years, but have not come close to reaching their potential.

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1273..1280..1168..905...650...536

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11....2.....2

Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Lucas[30] - 181 CA

Highest CA without caps: Lucas[30] - 181 CA

England

Players under 25 with international caps: 13....7.....4.....3.....2.....1

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....5.....1.....0.....0

Spain

Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....5.....4.....2.....6.....4

Undeserved Callup - Three players with CAs of 140, 151 and 152. It's becoming somewhat of a habit for Spain

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....7.....5.....3.....0.....0

Italy

Players under 25 with international caps: 5.....9.....10....1.....2.....3

Undeserved Callup - Two players with CAs of 144 and 153

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....2.....1.....0

France

Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....7.....6.....3.....1.....5

Undeserved Callup - Two players with CAs of 125 and 152. The 125 CA has been called up 9 times!! Do they really have no one better?

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....2.....6.....1.....0.....2

Biggest Snub - Phillippe Texier[24] - 167 CA

Germany

Players under 25 with international caps: 16....8.....1.....0.....2.....11

Undeserved Callup - Nine of the eleven under 25 players have less than 160 CA. The worst callups are 125, 125, 128 and 133 CA.

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....2.....1.....0.....0

Holland

Players under 25 with international caps: 20....10....7.....2.....0.....4

Undeserved Callup - All four players are < 160 CA with the worst at 133.

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....1.....1.....0.....0

Brazil

Players under 25 with international caps: 21....13....9.....4.....2.....5

Undeserved Callup - Two players with 150 CA and 158 CA.

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....4.....3.....0.....0

Argentina

Players under 25 with international caps: 18....13....8.....3.....1.....1

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....0.....0.....0

Analysis

Both under-21 and 21-24 group regens stats have stabilized. Compare it to savegame 1 and there are drastic differences. We are starting to see a decrease in CA in "all players" as real life players retire. It will be clear in a couple more years.

Due to the lowered CA, top international squads now regularly pick some truly undeserving players. For example, France has used a 125 CA right fullback 9 times. This is especially odd considering they have a 27 year old D RLC with 162 CA who has not been capped yet. In fact there are 12 players who >= 170 CA, but no caps. But at least Pato finally got his first cap at 26 with a CA of 188.

[Coop]

I'm not using an editor so I cannot give specific details. However, having taken over as manager of Scotland in 2012 I have been shocked at the quality of player coming through. There is not one regen that has been good enough to get into the national squad, or even near it. I have an aging squad with no sign of quality youngsters on the horizon.

I was beaten by Lichtenstein and resigned in early 2013. All this despite being extremely successful as manager of Rangers.

[James.Clench]

Your Thread is truly Epic KUTGW

It unequivocally confirms a suspicion I’ve had for a long time, that the game isn’t play tested nearly enough, definitely isn’t play tested long enough i.e. into 2025, and WE are the people that do the majority of the play testing, and it is up to US to point out the NUMEROUS bugs. I think that SI have become ever more reliant on us over the last few releases to do the play testing for them.

Like you, I also like to play career games, and I am currently into 2018 with my Tottenham side, but at this point FM has become less of a game, and more of a doss-about, because it’s just too easy. As you have pointed out it is nearly impossible to find a “natural athlete†on the game, or even just a player who posses a modicum of pace and acceleration, the results of this are that defenders just get done for pace all the time, forwards and attacking midfielders simply run past defenders like they weren’t there. Take a look at this, Gabriel Agbonlahor in 2016, the same is also true for Scott Sinclair of Chelsea. Players armed only with the weapons of speed and acceleration will go on to score goals for fun, just look at Agbonlahor, he has finishing 12, yet 20 goals in 20 games tells its own story. I also concur with you regarding club teams and nations not recognising the ability of players, Banega, Ustari, Lulinha, and Pato are all uncapped on my game too, plus look at the club Agbonlahor’s at as well, they got him on a free because Villa didn’t think he was up to the grade.

I think that to solve the problem of low quality regens, the game needs to be tweaked so that;

1. Regens should have a better PA, they should also have better Aerobic and Strength stats, or more easily improvable strength and aerobic stats (through training)

2. AI Club managers and national managers should play youngsters more and “blood†them at an earlier age, good youngsters do exist, it’s just a matter of playing them more, and sooner so they reach their PA. As I did with Tim Lichte, a regen I found (without using MINIscout) then played him gradually, as you can see “Tim Lichte's History†he’s had a very believable rise to become a first team regular, with a CA of 192 at the young age of 25. but this would never happen if he was managed by an AI manager, as they just play older players for longer.

You may also be interested to know that I am currently experimenting; I’ve edited all the Belarusian clubs so that they all have Training 20, Youth setup 20 and they all have Youth Academies, to see if it makes any difference to the quality of the regens. I’ll keep you posted with the results later, when I’ve done enough seasons.

[Minez01]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10....7.....5

180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41....41....39

170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110...123...132

160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94....93....85

190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0

180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0

170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0.....0.....0

160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0.....1.....0

150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0.....1.....1

140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2.....2.....4

130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18....22....16

120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77....76....60 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Looking at this section of your experiment (which is fantastic, btw) I think one of the larger problems is poor youth development. The potential for great players is there, but they are either not being picked up early, or are not being developed properly by the time they hit 21-22.

Another issue I'd like to raise is the point of the rapidly dropping number of players in the 110-150 CA category. While this is dropping in-game, the numbers you have given don't lie, but there could be many more youth players with a CA of 120-150 who WILL reach their potential early on in their career. My point is that without data on every CA and PA level, it is still hard to determine whether what we are seeing is permanent reduction or simply a pattern that changes every generation.

But I will say fantastic work, gathering all this data is a great achievement, it really helps with some insight into how the game world works. Great job!

[Minez01]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content"> PA of 120-150 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Forgive my lack of proofreading

[Ross1]

What I can get from that data.

Under 21 regens have just as much potential as the original players did. However, their current ability is a lot lower.

21-24 again potential is as good if not better than at the start of the game. But actually, you are seeing decent current ability here too (and overall its also similar). Which means, players are developing. They just dont immediately start as instant superstars.

In short, stop talking about this 'lowered CA' when actually your data shows that its still matching what it was at the start of the game. The only interesting thing is the lack of wonderkids, they are now having to train and get experience to get good.

It does show lowered physical stats as you progress. Maybe SI is reading into the all kids are now obese thing a bit too much.

Young players arent getting caps because they are taking more time to develop. I think we can safely say the second bit of data about young players with high CA not getting caps totally failed. Mainly because there are not as many young players WITH high CA.

[Guest]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this more but the decline in physical stats is astounding. I'm assuming this must be a bug with the development of new players or their starting stats. To go from 2016 players with >15 pace and acceleration to 423 10 years later is a pretty drastic change!

Great thread by the way SiN8!!

[SiN8]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Ross1:

What I can get from that data.

Under 21 regens have just as much potential as the original players did. However, their current ability is a lot lower.

21-24 again potential is as good if not better than at the start of the game. But actually, you are seeing decent current ability here too (and overall its also similar). Which means, players are developing. They just dont immediately start as instant superstars.

In short, stop talking about this 'lowered CA' when actually your data shows that its still matching what it was at the start of the game. The only interesting thing is the lack of wonderkids, they are now having to train and get experience to get good.

It does show lowered physical stats as you progress. Maybe SI is reading into the all kids are now obese thing a bit too much.

Young players arent getting caps because they are taking more time to develop. I think we can safely say the second bit of data about young players with high CA not getting caps totally failed. Mainly because there are not as many young players WITH high CA. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Since youth are generated with lower CA, they have a much more difficult time reaching their PA. Compare savegame 3 (with all real life players) and savegame 6 (should be all regens) for 21-24 group. There's a substantial difference in quality.

As for talented youth not been selected, there are still problems.

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11....2.....2

Savegame 3 (with all real players) show 21 players who got snubbed. The only reason the number decreased after that is because the lack of regens >= 165 CA. Pato got his first cap at 26. He was over 180 CA for 4 years before he got selected.

As far as taking longer for youth to develop, we'll have to wait a couple of years before that can verified. In 2017, there are only 18 regens that have >= 170 CA. Averaging savegame 1 to savegame 3, you had about ~100 real life players with over 170 CA. I don't believe that regens will develop that well.

[Ched]

It will be interesting to see what SI have to say about this (if that is they choose not to ignore it...) as i've seen a few threads with people challenging the quality of regens and all they've got from SI is "it's fine" and that's been the end of it. It will be interesting to see them argue with just numbers.

[chopper99]

A very interesting experiment with some startling results.

It seems clear that there is no problem with the number of players generated who have the potential to be excellent. But the figures you've given clearly show that there is a problem with the number of young players with a lot of ability.

It seems that more regens should appear who have a CA that is a little closer to their PA. Otherwise you'll just not see any wonderkids when you get further into the game and all players will take until their mid 20's to get near their potential. Some players should be quality when they are younger, as in real life.

What's more alarming is the drop in the number of players with decent physical attributes. There has been a dramatic decrease hear and this definitely needs further investigation.

KUTGW.

[Neil Brock]

Great thread here, really great in-depth look at the regens. If you've got any of the save games avaliable, we'd really like to take a look at these so if you could upload them to the FTP we can use these statistics to have a good look at the regens.

[Akim]

actually i have to say i am satisfied with the way youth develop now. in fm2007 i had after 15 seasons too many players that were class (ca 175++). it was just too much and like 20 high lvl teams were all rated the same (genie scout). now its rly making the difference between high lvl teams

i hope it wont be changed, maybe only rebalance the physical stats a bit