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[FM24] The Norseman


_Ben_
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Just found this career update last night and I've so far only been able to read the first page. Have to say, though, that this is once again a fantastic thread and also close to my heart because it's written about our neighboring country's football. 

Will keep reading and hopefully will be up to date soon.

Keep up the good work! 

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Taken a couple of lunch breaks to get myself all caught up again after the Christmas break, happy holidays and all that. 
 

Initially I was surprised to see you leave GIF but having been able to read the way that your thoughts/feelings developed over the following posts it looks to be the perfect move. 
 

Congrats on the title! First of many, eh? Whether that be here or further afield. 

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On 27/12/2023 at 19:13, _Ben_ said:

 

image.png.2b2dae6cfaefad409f43ec95e74483d3.png

 

 

I take it this isn't found in-game?
Also, which skin are you using? Looks like a modified Mustermann skin?

OT: This thread is lovely and goes to insane amounts of in-depth FM analysis. Just the morning read I needed with my coffee before college. Thank you for that!

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14 hours ago, Litmanen 10 said:

Just found this career update last night and I've so far only been able to read the first page. Have to say, though, that this is once again a fantastic thread and also close to my heart because it's written about our neighboring country's football. 

Will keep reading and hopefully will be up to date soon.

Keep up the good work! 

Thank you - hope you enjoy the rest of the read!

9 hours ago, Chris_ANZFM said:

Taken a couple of lunch breaks to get myself all caught up again after the Christmas break, happy holidays and all that. 
 

Initially I was surprised to see you leave GIF but having been able to read the way that your thoughts/feelings developed over the following posts it looks to be the perfect move. 
 

Congrats on the title! First of many, eh? Whether that be here or further afield. 

It was a tough choice but that ceiling felt like it’d take a few years to break down. Their new manager spent all of the money I raised last year and they didn’t improve, at all. 

Elfsborg has everything I had at GIF, with much more potential!

2 hours ago, Slipky said:

I take it this isn't found in-game?
Also, which skin are you using? Looks like a modified Mustermann skin?

OT: This thread is lovely and goes to insane amounts of in-depth FM analysis. Just the morning read I needed with my coffee before college. Thank you for that!

No - that’s Excel. I just use the same font and colour palette and in the skin, which is the Statman skin made by me! It’s in the download area if you wanted to have a look. 

Thanks for the kind words!

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Loving the venn diagrams.

I also like the 'progression effectiveness', with a but. My 'but' is how do you tell whether a player has low 'progression effectiveness' because of their role and the fact they are taking high risk passes, versus the player who has low 'progression effectiveness' because they aren't very good? I'm not sure how to read the players with high progression effectiveness - in the Man City example, are we to assume that Jack Grealish is far too safe with his possession and that is why he is ranked 99 for progression effectiveness? I guess I'm trying to get at the whole "information versus intelligence" angle here. It's definitely interesting information and you would never, ever look at something like this in isolation from which to draw conclusions - but I'm trying to see how you would pair it with something objective from which to draw conclusions, rather than searching for correlations from which to draw inferences?

This is not intended as a negative - I'm just interested in these sorts of conversations and how the thought process develops from the data available.

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5 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Loving the venn diagrams.

I also like the 'progression effectiveness', with a but. My 'but' is how do you tell whether a player has low 'progression effectiveness' because of their role and the fact they are taking high risk passes, versus the player who has low 'progression effectiveness' because they aren't very good? I'm not sure how to read the players with high progression effectiveness - in the Man City example, are we to assume that Jack Grealish is far too safe with his possession and that is why he is ranked 99 for progression effectiveness? I guess I'm trying to get at the whole "information versus intelligence" angle here. It's definitely interesting information and you would never, ever look at something like this in isolation from which to draw conclusions - but I'm trying to see how you would pair it with something objective from which to draw conclusions, rather than searching for correlations from which to draw inferences?

This is not intended as a negative - I'm just interested in these sorts of conversations and how the thought process develops from the data available.

No offense taken, at all!

My intention - aside from this desire to recreate real life stuff within FM - is to really use this to categorise players within my intended style of play. As a manager who favours a counter attacking style, I have an inbuilt desire for my players to successfully progress the ball. However, I think that I can use these metrics, in combination with more generic ones to help fine tune my decisions, but, realistically, not use it as a tool for recruitment. My thoughts are that I can split the players into two categories:

  • High percentile: The player is very safe, not losing the ball much or the player is good at progressing the ball and dribbling.
  • Low percentile: The player very unsafe, losing the ball a lot through risky passes or the player is poor at progressing the ball and dribbling.

That information, alone, would make Brusberg my 'weakest' player, ranking in the 27th percentile. Yet, I can dig deeper and see that he contributed 2.16 dribbles per90 and lost the ball under nine times per game - very decent metrics. His issue, as a striker, is that he is unable to progress the ball and only records 1.36 per 90, which is poor. Therefore, in terms of that 'progressions per possession loss metric' he's decent at two of the three things that make it up. Yet, when you then add in that he's scored at 0.80 goals per 90, with an average shot xG of 0.17 and a 21% conversion ratio across a whole season, you'd then think that actually - for him - this stat isn't hugely important. 

Going back to real life and looking a little deeper at Grealish's outputs, below - with him in the 99th percentile overall - you can see that he makes up his numbers by progressive passes (50th percentile) and progressive carries (96th percentile) whilst then being pretty safe in possession with his 17.9% Tkld percentage (meaning the percentage of times he is tackled by a defender whilst attempting to take someone on) being inside the top 10 of all players in the premier league, and being the hardest to tackle forward by some distance on that list (Michael Olise is number 24 with 25% tackled percentage).

image.png.313f27bc29bf2db4099aacb7ad772379.png

Does this make Jack good? It doesn't really say from the outset but I'd suggest he's still safe in possession - not because he's playing simple balls (maybe someone like Kilman and certainly Konsa is doing more so) but because he's hard to tackle when dribbling.

image.png.c9a44f8ed06aa791b659e319e191c088.png

We obviously don't have this depth of data in FM but my takeaway, for my team, from that data I produced is that the duty selection is working pretty much as standard. My more aggressive players are more risky in possession rather than performing badly and thus scoring lower but a low rating in that and poor outcomes on the pitch may be the trigger to look into the suitability of both player and role. Additionally, my defenders are safe with the ball rather than excellent progressors but that'd be expected given the Defend duties.

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2 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

No offense taken, at all!

My intention - aside from this desire to recreate real life stuff within FM - is to really use this to categorise players within my intended style of play. As a manager who favours a counter attacking style, I have an inbuilt desire for my players to successfully progress the ball. However, I think that I can use these metrics, in combination with more generic ones to help fine tune my decisions, but, realistically, not use it as a tool for recruitment. My thoughts are that I can split the players into two categories:

  • High percentile: The player is very safe, not losing the ball much or the player is good at progressing the ball and dribbling.
  • Low percentile: The player very unsafe, losing the ball a lot through risky passes or the player is poor at progressing the ball and dribbling.

That information, alone, would make Brusberg my 'weakest' player, ranking in the 27th percentile. Yet, I can dig deeper and see that he contributed 2.16 dribbles per90 and lost the ball under nine times per game - very decent metrics. His issue, as a striker, is that he is unable to progress the ball and only records 1.36 per 90, which is poor. Therefore, in terms of that 'progressions per possession loss metric' he's decent at two of the three things that make it up. Yet, when you then add in that he's scored at 0.80 goals per 90, with an average shot xG of 0.17 and a 21% conversion ratio across a whole season, you'd then think that actually - for him - this stat isn't hugely important. 

Going back to real life and looking a little deeper at Grealish's outputs, below - with him in the 99th percentile overall - you can see that he makes up his numbers by progressive passes (50th percentile) and progressive carries (96th percentile) whilst then being pretty safe in possession with his 17.9% Tkld percentage (meaning the percentage of times he is tackled by a defender whilst attempting to take someone on) being inside the top 10 of all players in the premier league, and being the hardest to tackle forward by some distance on that list (Michael Olise is number 24 with 25% tackled percentage).

image.png.313f27bc29bf2db4099aacb7ad772379.png

Does this make Jack good? It doesn't really say from the outset but I'd suggest he's still safe in possession - not because he's playing simple balls (maybe someone like Kilman and certainly Konsa is doing more so) but because he's hard to tackle when dribbling.

image.png.c9a44f8ed06aa791b659e319e191c088.png

We obviously don't have this depth of data in FM but my takeaway, for my team, from that data I produced is that the duty selection is working pretty much as standard. My more aggressive players are more risky in possession rather than performing badly and thus scoring lower but a low rating in that and poor outcomes on the pitch may be the trigger to look into the suitability of both player and role. Additionally, my defenders are safe with the ball rather than excellent progressors but that'd be expected given the Defend duties.

Yeah that all makes sense and is aligned with what I was thinking - that's it's all about helping you put other statistics / metrics in context. I guess it might be useful in isolation if you had a reliable baseline for what was a mean level in your system. So if you knew that, over the last three seasons, your DM had a "progression effectiveness" score of, let's say, 70 then, ceteris paribus, you can tell if a new player coming in is better or worse - or, presuming your unders are playing the same system, you have a semi-reliable baseline with which to check your academy's players' progression effectiveness in the same role. But it's knowing what that baseline is, without any other complementary metrics, that is the difficult part. Too many variables.

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12 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

you have a semi-reliable baseline with which to check your academy's players' progression effectiveness in the same role.

This little bit is, actually, the most interesting for me and one I hadn't hugely considered. Providing that the roles don't change, I can create a year-on-year comparison in this area with a benchmark value and, if the roles do change or the 'type' of player is significantly different, I can view the effectiveness of this change.

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Love little tweaks like that when they come off.

What detail level do you have set for your database? I'm similarly running most leagues in Europe (but with way fewer players) but I haven't beefed up the detail level because I'm worried about how much it'll slow my game down. I'm got a really decent machine but even so... it's a risk.

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10 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

What detail level do you have set for your database? I'm similarly running most leagues in Europe (but with way fewer players) but I haven't beefed up the detail level because I'm worried about how much it'll slow my game down. I'm got a really decent machine but even so... it's a risk.

I've upped continental competitions to Main Stages from all across the world and have also set the top league of the Big 5 (with the goal that, eventually, I will manage there) to full detail as well as the top tiers of Denmark, Finland and Norway so that Scandinavia feels more 'complete' in terms of statistically gathering. I've also set the top two tiers of Sweden and the U19 league so that I can beef up my appraisals on the youngsters I bring in. Because I already had a lot of players loaded - circa 110,000 - adding the new leagues will likely mean that the game balances itself out at 180/190k players, which is more than I've ever used before, too.

I, too, am conscious of the drain that this will have: it has moved it from five stars down to three and a half. I'm not trying to rush through this save and find myself doing other things whilst the game progresses but I don't want it to grind to a halt!

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4 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

I've upped continental competitions to Main Stages from all across the world and have also set the top league of the Big 5 (with the goal that, eventually, I will manage there) to full detail as well as the top tiers of Denmark, Finland and Norway so that Scandinavia feels more 'complete' in terms of statistically gathering. I've also set the top two tiers of Sweden and the U19 league so that I can beef up my appraisals on the youngsters I bring in. Because I already had a lot of players loaded - circa 110,000 - adding the new leagues will likely mean that the game balances itself out at 180/190k players, which is more than I've ever used before, too.

I, too, am conscious of the drain that this will have: it has moved it from five stars down to three and a half. I'm not trying to rush through this save and find myself doing other things whilst the game progresses but I don't want it to grind to a halt!

It's interesting, I don't know how much faith to put in the star ratings. My current setup suggests one and a half star rating but it flies along and I very rarely have any genuine processing time. Certainly not enough time to go and do anything else - even browsing on another screen. I've been into the Detail Level screen and it suggests that I can add full detail to "all senior competitive matches" in all 22 loaded nations without any impact to the game speed whatsoever. That just doesn't make sense. I might just experiment for a while and see what happens. Don't want to derail your thread into a discussion on detail level :-D

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I've found that the star ratings are pretty much useless when comes to that leagues/player screen.  I'm at 1* and rarely have an issue even on deadline day and new season day which, generally, take the longest to process.

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On 16/01/2024 at 18:20, rich ruzzian said:

I haven't, yet! I ordered both at the same time but the latter was delayed by a day, therefore, it is now sitting on my bookshelf ready for an opportune moment to get into it. Nice to see that it's a recommended read, so should be decent!

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One of the most deep soccer analysis on what happen and why in soccer is …

The Football Code: The Science of Predicting the Beautiful Game by  James Tippett

i believe your work and analysis is awesome and accurate but I have a very big but about what truly those FM stats can help us enough to play the game using only stats . I believe that are inaccurate in a very serious level .

I give an example. 
I play with rakow using your skin ( statman 1.3 very sad that is still on 1.3) and I have look that on every game of my team the PPDA is for both teams between 3,4 to 7 , this is purely impossible the best teams in the world are near 6,5 and above.

I found that looking at player Average Ranking according the league he plays you have approximately the 90% of truth.

not to stack with that now …your analysis is amazing your writing also ….it give us new ideas to create new stats per position to search ,

I presume that your striker is ar Target man role in attack duty that why has poor progressive eff. 
I have created some excels by my self similar divided categories and in DLP at support duty a can say that PROG.EFF. is very satisfied.

never the less your work is amazing and hope that gives you some ideas to add new staff at your 1.4 version of your skin .

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On 19/11/2023 at 11:03, Shrewnaldo said:

Don't think I've ever seen a counter against a 'keeper coming up for the corner either. Great stuff. Maybe one of the additions to this year's game along with the animations 

Could you explain the yellow checks on the attribute bars? Not sure I'm understanding that one 

I have, (against me). 

My GK's have only been taking pens in FM24, (because of the way that the allocation of set-piece takers has changed in this issue of the game), but certainly in previous issues of the game I have conceded both from attacking free-kicks and attacking corners. Big GK's, (or any players), attacking the near post was OP in previous issues of the game, but I soon stopped that with my GK because it just didn't feel right, (unlike my GK's spanking the ball in from 30 yards when our best outfield players couldn't). :lol:

It shows how far the game has come that it is now able to exploit things like this. 

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Can I just say what a brilliant read this thread is @_Ben_as usual. :applause:

I read the 1st 2 pages this morning on my phone, but it really didn't do it justice so I am going through and re-reading it again now in proper detail. The threads I usually like are nowhere near as detailed as yours and I often skim-read a little as a take a tiny little break from my own game, but yours is different. It's immersive and you have to embrace the detail, (which is a good thing). Those who skim-read like me might not frequent your thread as much as we do others, (I'm just lazy for the most part), but it's definitely our loss. I love that your thread is basically you blurting out your thoughts and then arranging them into some cohesive order as you post. I make individual posts like this from time to time, (and love doing so), but to do the whole thread in this sort of detail really is impressive. 

Anyway, I'm off to catch up with the rest of the thread. :thup:

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Your post about header investigation is my favourite one so far. :applause: Absolutely love it for loads of different reasons. It's the best series of posts, (even though there isn't an absolute conclusion), that I have read in ages. The graphic with the Headers won/90 vs Header completion % is a thing of beauty and I completely get your frustration that you can't dial in more into the detail to see attacking/defensive headers, (or at the very least headers in both boxes). I have issues with short defenders in my save, (and playing Youth Only there is only so much I can do). I know everyone is using the term "height", (and I use it to), but when I use height I tend to mean a players ability to win a header, (which is not what height is at all, although it is certainly an indication of "things" and something I find it very hard to ignore). 

@MattyLewis11 then asks some really good questions and we see the examples of the DLC winning 0 headers in 2 games, (although also attempting none in one of them which raises a whole different question). What I expected to see from you, (and apologies if I have missed it), is a graphic showing where on the pitch the 7/7 missed headers were missed. (There are so many links it probably is there and I have missed it). (I appreciate that you have moved on by the way but couldn't help responding). 

@Shrewnaldo then brings up defensive set-pieces & this is something that I've noticed where a centre-half can be dominant in the air in open play, but a complete liability from corners and set-pieces where the calculation seems to be significantly different, (and not linked specifically to 1 attribute or a set of attributes that I could see). 

I would read a thread containing just info on headers. :lol: (I may be laughing, but I am not joking). I remember back in FM.... maybe as long ago as FM13, :lol: people were saying that TM were rubbish and you couldn't get them to win headers and I properly dug into it and got my TM on a run of 67 consecutively won headers. (Yes I remember how many because I put so much effort into it). :lol:

@Shrewnaldo makes a point about Det and Concentration impacting late goals as well as sub quality, and I would also add condition/fatigue into the mix. I've seen huge benefits of players in peak physical condition coming in and performing at a level way above expectations simply because they are competing against fatigued opposition. Whether that be from the start of a game with a quick turnaround, or from the bench. They have to be in peak condition for it to work though, (and that's hard work to manage). 

Well done on your more recent successes, but if I'm you I'm looking back at that 1st European campaign with GIF and wondering if I should have stayed. Any regrets? 

Venn Diagrams by the way. :cool:

This thread is a perfect example that in order to make a successful thread you don't write it for the reader. You write it for yourself and those who are interested by what you write will find it. Brilliant stuff. :applause:

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7 hours ago, milenec11 said:

One of the most deep soccer analysis on what happen and why in soccer is …

The Football Code: The Science of Predicting the Beautiful Game by  James Tippett

i believe your work and analysis is awesome and accurate but I have a very big but about what truly those FM stats can help us enough to play the game using only stats . I believe that are inaccurate in a very serious level .

I give an example. 
I play with rakow using your skin ( statman 1.3 very sad that is still on 1.3) and I have look that on every game of my team the PPDA is for both teams between 3,4 to 7 , this is purely impossible the best teams in the world are near 6,5 and above.

I found that looking at player Average Ranking according the league he plays you have approximately the 90% of truth.

not to stack with that now …your analysis is amazing your writing also ….it give us new ideas to create new stats per position to search ,

I presume that your striker is ar Target man role in attack duty that why has poor progressive eff. 
I have created some excels by my self similar divided categories and in DLP at support duty a can say that PROG.EFF. is very satisfied.

never the less your work is amazing and hope that gives you some ideas to add new staff at your 1.4 version of your skin .

I have never made a post stating that FM mirrors real life and I know that FM uses a different engine to calculate possession and, as such, OPPDA, so haven't calculated it in comparison: OPPDA calculation has nothing to do with my skin design. Secondly, my striker is a Trequartista and not a Target Forward - several posts have discussed his role as part of the third man run, rather than a playmaker who moves the ball forward. Lastly, a Statman v1.4 has been out for the best part of a month - this is not the forum for requests for that. 

1 hour ago, milenec11 said:

@_Ben_   Is this possible this type o comparison in game or manually in excel 

and how to find leagues stats in this form?

IMG_1148.png

This is created in Microsoft Excel.

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1 minute ago, _Ben_ said:

I have never made a post stating that FM mirrors real life and I know that FM uses a different engine to calculate possession and, as such, OPPDA, so haven't calculated it in comparison: OPPDA calculation has nothing to do with my skin design. Secondly, my striker is a Trequartista and not a Target Forward - several posts have discussed his role as part of the third man run, rather than a playmaker who moves the ball forward. Lastly, a Statman v1.4 has been out for the best part of a month - this is not the forum for requests for that. 

This is created in Microsoft Excel.

and the league stats made or found by???

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2 minutes ago, milenec11 said:

and the league stats made or found by???

Basic league stats are here:

image.thumb.png.3095efb89b83d6b271609929dbfcc4fa.png

However, to split positionally - I calculated by creating an average from a player search of players in this division.

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:thup::applause:

7 minutes ago, _Ben_ said:

I have never made a post stating that FM mirrors real life and I know that FM uses a different engine to calculate possession and, as such, OPPDA, so haven't calculated it in comparison: OPPDA calculation has nothing to do with my skin design. Secondly, my striker is a Trequartista and not a Target Forward - several posts have discussed his role as part of the third man run, rather than a playmaker who moves the ball forward. Lastly, a Statman v1.4 has been out for the best part of a month - this is not the forum for requests for that. 

This is created in Microsoft Excel.

and the league stats made or found by???

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4 hours ago, Jimbokav1971 said:

This thread is a perfect example that in order to make a successful thread you don't write it for the reader. You write it for yourself and those who are interested by what you write will find it. Brilliant stuff. :applause:

Thanks Jim! Some praise coming from the man whose Gibraltar save was my first inspiration into a different way of playing FM. I've no regrets at leaving Sundsvall as it opens up a new tier for us to operate at.

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A little 'Do I?! Don't I?!' opportunity as I get to open the game for the first time in nearly a week...

image.png.33dbd67215432b3b5d7c9e9c5540e1f3.png

Ok. Schalke. What a step up! Let's look at their league position...

image.png.32082939042e91242ba583c658f48f8d.png

Ok. Not to worry. The 2.Bundesliga is still on a par with the Allsvenskan. Oh, wait. Relegated from the 2.Bundesliga? The 3.Liga still has Dynamo Dresden, Ingolstadt, 1860 Munich and Arminia Bielefeld in it! Their top earner is on €40k per week and half of their Schalke 04 II team players earn more than my top earner.It feels like a huge step down - Champions League to German third tier but it feels like I get the chance to work at the highest of ceilings. I'd love some thoughts, please.

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31 minutes ago, _Ben_ said:

A little 'Do I?! Don't I?!' opportunity as I get to open the game for the first time in nearly a week...

image.png.33dbd67215432b3b5d7c9e9c5540e1f3.png

Ok. Schalke. What a step up! Let's look at their league position...

image.png.32082939042e91242ba583c658f48f8d.png

Ok. Not to worry. The 2.Bundesliga is still on a par with the Allsvenskan. Oh, wait. Relegated from the 2.Bundesliga? The 3.Liga still has Dynamo Dresden, Ingolstadt, 1860 Munich and Arminia Bielefeld in it! Their top earner is on €40k per week and half of their Schalke 04 II team players earn more than my top earner.It feels like a huge step down - Champions League to German third tier but it feels like I get the chance to work at the highest of ceilings. I'd love some thoughts, please.

Intuitively it feels like it'd be an odd move to me. If I were to equate Allsvenskan with the Scottish Premier League, you saw Postecoglu move to Spurs. If he'd gone to Sunderland or Southampton when they were both down there, I think that would have been a very odd move. But does it make sense in terms of your game? Maybe.

Do you want to build towards a club where you're then going to stay for an extended period? Like Atalanta if I'm remembering correctly? In that case, I think this would be a good move. Would you have moved to Schalke if they'd been a 2.Bundesliga club? Because you're probably only one season away from that and should surely bounce back immediately. How much are they offering you personally per week? I know it means nothing in terms of the game but I tend to look at that to gauge some realism.

I went back to your original preview posts to check what you thought at the start of the save:

Quote

My aims for this save are simple: to venture through the Scandinavian countries, probably not starting at the lowest levels but with an eye on reaching the very top of the game here. Then, ideally, a move south to one of Europe’s elite leagues will be on the cards and I can continue the journey of the Norseman south. To do this, I’ve loaded a broad game world with a lot of extra players and leagues involved, should I wish to make any detours along the way

Depends if you feel you've met the first part of this. Feels like you've nothing else to achieve in Sweden. Could you do more if you got a move to the likes of Molde or Bodø/Glimt in Norway, or perhaps København in Denmark? Perhaps not unless you feel you want to 'tick off' the other leagues?

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I had fun with Schalke04 at the end of FM23 and ported over the save just to see if the feature worked.  I find that it would be a higher ceiling than your current club, but like many fallen giants from smaller cities the Ceiling would come into effect when you were actually battling against Bayern Munich for the title or trying to win Champions League. 

I see the ceiling closing in on me in my current team ASSE that I am currently playing.

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3 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Intuitively it feels like it'd be an odd move to me. If I were to equate Allsvenskan with the Scottish Premier League, you saw Postecoglu move to Spurs. If he'd gone to Sunderland or Southampton when they were both down there, I think that would have been a very odd move. But does it make sense in terms of your game? Maybe

I agree but I’d say Schalke would be more like moving to Spurs in the championship if they’d been relegated. 
Which such a move would make sense. 
 

For me I’d move as it’s also a club you can build more of a philosophy on and off the pitch as a manager. Ahead of any future move 

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11 minutes ago, danielgear said:

I agree but I’d say Schalke would be more like moving to Spurs in the championship if they’d been relegated. 
Which such a move would make sense. 
 

For me I’d move as it’s also a club you can build more of a philosophy on and off the pitch as a manager. Ahead of any future move 

Not for me. Having just been relegated to the second tier is quite different to having just been relegated to the third tier after (presumably) five(?) seasons of deterioration through the third-tier. Maybe more akin to Leeds when they were in League One and Gordon Strachan going there rather than 'Boro? Something which isn't beyond the realms. But, realistically, you're talking about at least three seasons before you're back in the top tier rather than one.

I agree with the second part, mind. It does feel like an opportunity to build a legacy and a proper fallen giant 

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1 minute ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Maybe more akin to Leeds when they were in League One and Gordon Strachan going there rather than 'Boro? Something which isn't beyond the realms.

Thats probably a fairer example. And even then Leeds were still a big draw. 
 

2 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

I agree with the second part, mind. It does feel like an opportunity to build a legacy and a proper fallen giant 


This is what would sway me the most, It would also be interesting to see their finances because aren’t they in serious debt at game start? Has that got worst?

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Thanks @danielgear, @Shrewnaldo and @Hootieleece!

It feels like a bit of a gut reaction after being away from the game for a little while (especially given the extended playing time over the Christmas break) and that does often make me feel like a change is needed. I think you've all made very valid points: the most pertinent being about the realism of the drop, despite the reputation holding. I see this akin to me naturally considering Bradford to be a 'big team' for their level, just because they played in the Premier League some time ago. Schalke haven't been back to the top flight since 2023 so they're just there as a name and, presumably, a huge pile of debt, too but it was their name that drew me in. Interestingly, both Brondby and Rosenberg jobs are insecure at the moment - two opportunities that I also believe are big clubs but neither of whom are any more reputable than Elfsborg. I think the move to either of those would just be more of the same - stabilise the club over a season whilst instilling my style and then pushing on for more titles. Yes, winning the Swedish, Norwegian and Danish titles may look good on my CV but doesn't give me that long term goal I want, and, with the speed I now play at, feels unreasonable in the timeframe.

I think that looking back at my initial intent was important - I haven't yet achieved it all here (saying that off the back of one of the worst ninety minutes I've had where I made every tactical mistake going!) and I haven't even been here long enough to see through the development of some of the youngster, a cornerstone of my gameplay. However, long term, I'd like a German job without a B Team, currently leaving me with Bundesliga sides Leverkusen, Wolfsburg (which is also insecure), Heidenheim, Leipzig, Union Berlin and 2.Bundesliga sides Osnabrück, Sandhausen, Wehen, Bochum and Darmstadt. I'm a huge fan of the through model of development - where I am solely in charge from 15 to 45 rather than offsetting to a B Team at a level that is probably poor with staff who also are.

I am enjoying my time here at Elfsborg and will look to continue to develop styles and players whilst creating a conveyor belt of talent but I would be short sighted not to keep, at least, an eye out for what is happening elsewhere...

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1 hour ago, _Ben_ said:

A little 'Do I?! Don't I?!' opportunity as I get to open the game for the first time in nearly a week...

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Ok. Schalke. What a step up! Let's look at their league position...

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Ok. Not to worry. The 2.Bundesliga is still on a par with the Allsvenskan. Oh, wait. Relegated from the 2.Bundesliga? The 3.Liga still has Dynamo Dresden, Ingolstadt, 1860 Munich and Arminia Bielefeld in it! Their top earner is on €40k per week and half of their Schalke 04 II team players earn more than my top earner.It feels like a huge step down - Champions League to German third tier but it feels like I get the chance to work at the highest of ceilings. I'd love some thoughts, please.

My thoughts? Yes, the realism is not the biggest thing. But the PROJECT would be the biggest thing. When Al-Fayed took over our club, we had the likes of Mickey Adams as manager, but after we had Keegan in the Second Division and Jean Tigana in the First/Championship. I think if you approach the whole thing as a project in itself, the move is a good one and fun IMO

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I think it's a project worth undertaking.  Think of this way, Schalke is now a club that any German manager wouldn't take because they have fallen so far.  As a result, the board is forced to look outside the country to bring in a successful manager that can rebuild the club and restore the club to its past glories as one of the top clubs in Germany.

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12 hours ago, Deisler26 said:

My thoughts? Yes, the realism is not the biggest thing. But the PROJECT would be the biggest thing. When Al-Fayed took over our club, we had the likes of Mickey Adams as manager, but after we had Keegan in the Second Division and Jean Tigana in the First/Championship. I think if you approach the whole thing as a project in itself, the move is a good one and fun IMO

12 hours ago, keeper#1 said:

I think it's a project worth undertaking.  Think of this way, Schalke is now a club that any German manager wouldn't take because they have fallen so far.  As a result, the board is forced to look outside the country to bring in a successful manager that can rebuild the club and restore the club to its past glories as one of the top clubs in Germany.

I've slept on it and considered that I haven't actually yet finished the project I had here and, thus, would be failing to meet my own targets, let alone those of the board. For that reason, I'm no longer going to pursue interest in this job, instead hoping that my work in Sweden can land me - eventually - a job in the Bundesliga. If things - particularly domestically - become stale or too easy and I don't feel that I have the prerequisite of experience and quality, my journey to Germany could then go via a similar level club in Denmark or Norway or, even, the Netherlands.

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That’s entirely fair, I think. I’ve certainly spent the last few FM’s thinking of saves as more projects than just idly picking a team and running with them.

I have another save in mind if I can win the CL and CWC on my current save and that’ll be a brilliant project

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This is probably the one of the few threads I'm regularly reading and coming back to this year, in order to get inspiration and learn more about "Analytical FM", rather than the regular, 1-20 stat FM I usually play.
This has also pushed me to using a similar skin, albeit not Statman, and giving it a shot myself. Thank you for the insanely informative posts and the depth you're going into - It makes understanding this style of FM so much easier.

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7 hours ago, Slipky said:

This is probably the one of the few threads I'm regularly reading and coming back to this year, in order to get inspiration and learn more about "Analytical FM", rather than the regular, 1-20 stat FM I usually play.
This has also pushed me to using a similar skin, albeit not Statman, and giving it a shot myself. Thank you for the insanely informative posts and the depth you're going into - It makes understanding this style of FM so much easier.

Thank you! I always appreciate the kind words, especially when people are finding meaning in my ramblings and streams of consciousness about understanding what I've created or what I've found. Sadly, play time has massively been hit lately but still chugging along with my quest!

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I think Schalke in liga three is the perfect fallen giant. A huge club, great fanbase great local derby. It ticks all the boxes. Have produced some great players down the years as well. Was it a step down perhaps but for me I think it would have been a great narrative and could lend itself to a realistic situation, due to the sheer size and potential!

Nevertheless you set yourself goals so it’s understandable you want to do reach them in Elfsborg

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Wow. Life, eh? It's felt like I've barely picked up FM for a week or so now but, in realistic terms, I've actually just picked it up, half-focused on a game and then had to turn it off again. Fortunately, even at 50% energy, we're doing pretty well in the league and are well on course to record two league titles in two years.

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That being said, in between those league games came an - expected - Europa League loss to Chelsea and a pretty shambolic performance, yet again, in the cup final to the hands of Hammarby, who are now back-to-back victors, against us. My policy of small rotations across games is working as we are fresh, not injured and morale is high as we are fighting for places. Seeing players like Okkels, who now has Zsigmond for company on the wings, score a hattrick against Varbergs as well as cameos from RappKallander and, more recently, a hattrick from Boukama-Kaya, is great and vindicates the 'squad' theory, where I'm using sixteen to seventeen key players who can cover a variety of positions, with the allowances for youngsters to step up where either needed or just wanted.

We are still unbeaten in the league since my arrival - a truly fantastic feat.

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But, given the previous discussion with links to Germany, I do feel that my time here at Elfsborg is coming towards its natural end. I won't jump unless the appropriate thing comes up and, wisely, will not move on when my time is as limited as it is right now - given the huge undertaking of learning the ropes at a new club!

---

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In transfer business, a Swedish record bid was tabled for Brusberg This, for me, is a fantastic bit of a business. I was getting concerned that, given his great record and international recognition, he'd be getting cold feet - so I used his agent to drum up some interest. Bids, initially, we around €2m - a measly amount for a player of his calibre and a tiny profit on the €1.7m investment on him. Using ultimatums and more and more offering out through negotiating to an acceptable deal then rejecting once a club usurped that meant I was soon looking at a deal of over €10m for a man, who, initially, was concerned at a high asking price at a mere third of that value. I continued, and, eventually, ended with €16m from Werder, where, honestly, I doubt he'll have a huge contribution. For me,that element is a shame but, at the end of the day, football is a business and a cut throat one at that! 

 The other sale was much easier! Mulugetadespite being a recent signing, had become an absolute nightmare and I was pleased to see him move to Germany. Upon return from a couple of small injuries, he was a little behind in terms of match fitness and form but, for some reason, completely threw his toys out of the pram. Several of those telling interviews followed and his agent played a blinder in stirring up interest from other clubs. After rejecting one offer, trying to remedy the situation, I gave up and fought fire with fire - banishing him from the first team and securing a €2m move to Darmstadt.

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Whilst not direct replacement, I was able to bring in both Sangaré and Ben-Sha'anan - as evidence of huge growth made in my scouting networks. The young Israeli, now eighteen, moves to pretty much like-for-like replace Mulugeta but, actually, is quite the upgrade on his playmaking and physical ability. I've toyed with using him as a Trequartista, given his good finishing but just felt he lacked a little in his overall ball carrying ability - yet, at such a young age - has the opportunity to grow. The Ivorian, a real coup for us, is the longer term solution to my Libero position, I believe. Whilst I must admit to an element of caution around a defender who lists Heading as a weakness, I think he's tall enough, strong enough and can position himself well enough to get by - maybe at the expense of a little attacking threat from corners.

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These signings, as I said, mark a nice point in the continued development at looking at undervalued markets. Now I'm not, in any way, about to suggest that the Ivory Coast and, particularly, ASEC Mimosas, are unknown in the FM world, but the value here of the players I've brought in - which excludes Noor Ouma and Mbacke works out at around 3.3% of the income gained from the Brusberg sale. Again, I'm not going to say that these are all as good, nor will all be as good as he is, but - at this level - the conveyor belt of talent is a must.

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Then, when that can be corroborated with FFP-free players, such as those from the academy, like JBK - below - the potential for profit margins and (of course), sentimental breakthroughs, are even higher. Junior returns from a second loan spell, this time at Osnabruck in the 2.Liga, where he has scored at nearly one in every three and led the line expertly in a team that, despite just earning promotion to the league, were one playoff game away from consecutive promotions. Again, I've toyed with my ideas for the role that he'll play but, given that there is a huge gap in my striker role, I think that's the one he'll fill! A hattrick in his return to the team against GAIS has already pretty much convinced me that this is what he'll do!

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---

With fifteen games until the end of the season, I hope to be able to dig deeper into the tactical elements that are allowing us to continue our domination and, hopefully, sow some seeds for the next chapter of my career!

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At first I thought Werder Bremen were interested in you and I was rather comfused. That'd be a great move

Have you managed to set up any affiliate deals with African clubs? Like a pseudo-emulation of Right to Dream? Or even just to give you scouting knowledge? 

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42 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

At first I thought Werder Bremen were interested in you and I was rather comfused. That'd be a great move

Germany is coming soon, but I’ve got some thoughts on the locations and the journey I’d want to take - Bremen is not part of that!

43 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Have you managed to set up any affiliate deals with African clubs? Like a pseudo-emulation of Right to Dream? Or even just to give you scouting knowledge? 

No. Sadly, the board aren’t interested in engaging with that kind of thing, yet. Maybe our reputation isn’t high enough to allow non-European feeders. The move to Germany would, you’d assume, allow a foothold in both Sweden and Africa - so I expect that to be a key part of the recruitment strategy. 

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My German journey, however, will not be including a visit to Schalke - of which I'd go as far as saying that I've dodged a massive bullet since my interest in their plight:

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4 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

My German journey, however, will not be including a visit to Schalke - of which I'd go as far as saying that I've dodged a massive bullet since my interest in their plight:

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This would be a wonderful rebuilding save for me

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33 minutes ago, Deisler26 said:

This would be a wonderful rebuilding save for me

Back in the day, I think it would be for me, too. They’ve literally been left with their youth side and, following a bit of unrealistic ‘add-manager-ing and reloading’ have upwards of €200m in debts at €1.5m a month. But with how I play the game now - a more tactically development regime without constant flow of players in and out, it’s not quite the route I want to take into Germany!

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I took up Schalke04 as the last club in my save last year and they were in debt and in Bundesliga2 but not so sad as in your save. They still had a youth team and had a few players to make it back to the Bundesliga straight away and then allow me to create at team of free transfers that competed for Europe before their Board went crazy and built a new Stadium adding to the debt and making it about $800M. I was spending $20M/month just servicing the debt even before the stadium.

The Programmers must know or think that Schalke's board is almost as unrealistic as Hertha's IRL. 

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