[FM24] The Norseman

[_Ben_]

What a week! I’ve spent it skinning and not playing, but the hours with the game open all count on the journey I want to make as an FM manager. I’ve managed to create a panel that shows attributes as a total bar for each training area, superimposed on the statistical analysis for like areas – Ball Control attributes compared to Dribbling outcomes, for example – and that looks like this. It’s a pleasure to see just how much Carström is outperforming his attributes but will always make me wary that a dip may well be around the corner, or, hopefully – I can maintain this and prove that I can make players better.

Never the less, in game we’ve made some lovely progress – starting with a pre-season built around the teachings of Mr @danielgear:

Three cups, all with ridiculous non-accurate naming systems but a way that we have five training days and two performance days across a week, with plenty of rotation between the squads on successive match days. What has surprised me, hugely, is that we were able to take apart mid-table top tier Norwegian side Sarpsborg 08 as well as beat 5^th place Allsvenksan side Djurgardens on penalties, despite a late-game collapse from 2-0 up.

Tactically, I feel that we’re in a really good place and the work put in upon takeover has really helped. I know we have a strong squad for this level and, whilst we haven’t changed or strengthened the team as much as I both wanted and expected to have to, I feel that we are in a really positive place for the season ahead with a thought that I’ve been able to, pretty much across the board, out-think the AI managers.

---

 

Full match reports can be seen by clicking on each thumbnail.

The Svenska Cup plays as a bit of an off-season prep for most teams, coming in February and March before the actual season kicks off. With no Swedish teams making the latter stages of the European competitions, I felt that it was a bit of a free hit – making sure we were physically able to compete against better footballing teams by being ready and sharp.

We opened up with a strong win against relegated top tier side Varbergs, but found some nice joy in a deviation from our standard 3-box-3 shape. The change that I talked about in the pre-season report, using the aggressive Martinsson as a replacement for the more defensive-minded Forsberg made all the different. Salou became a HB(d) as opposed to a DM(s), allowing the right back slot to move from an IFB(d) to a WB(a). The shape starts as a 3-3-4 but becomes far more aggressive and actually allowed Martinsson to crash the box and score as we put the game to bed. As a season opener, this was great: 2.91xG to 0.51xGA but this control was reiterated by individual performances:

• Navik: 1 goal, 0.66xG, 1 assist, 0.21xA, 1 clear cut chance, 2 key passes
• Mattsson – 8 dribbles
• Carström – 0.9xGA
• Salaou – 15 progressive passes and 2 assists

With nothing to lose against AIK, we went for it and actually felt really strongly placed to create a big upset. We were under the cosh a little bit less than the graph probably suggests but looked good value and, leaving with a point felt like a real step forward for us. Eskilstuna were relegated from our level last year and we made light work of them, creating a whopping 4.01xG with three clear cut chances. With AIK failing to beat Varbergs, our place in the next round was secured.

We were pitted against Malmö – arguably one of the toughest ties to face but also had a little extra to it. Ole Gunnar Solskjær had been in charge of Sarpsborg when we battered then in pre-season but had now moved to Swedish to take over the reigns and, clearly, wanted to avoid another beating at my hands. The comparison of the teams gave little away in terms of their style aside from their defenders were not likely to be too advanced. My game plan was to give them the ball in their defensive half but restrict them from anything other than long balls over the top: not the smartest idea with a relatively slow defence but a calculated risk given the potency of their attack in and around the box. Overall, it worked really quite well. They nearly had three quarters of the ball and nearly quadrupled our xG total but – overall – they weren’t that much better than us and we certainly did ourselves proud.

---

  

  

Full match reports can be seen by clicking on each thumbnail.

The season started with a highly entertaining derby against Östersunds – we had enough chances to win it ourselves but, to be fair, so did they. I made a slight tactical error against their 4-4-2, using Martinsson as the aggressive wing back and Salaou as a HB(d) – this compromised our midfield structure and left Pichkah alone in the DM area, creating a triangle more than a box and removing the superiority we would normally enjoy against two centre mids. We had the best of the play against Sandvikens but need to be really careful against defensive corners, as seen by a dangerous spell of about five minutes when the game could have changed. Skövde posed little threat and we had a chance to play with the set piece creator ourselves. Without anything in the way of attacking corner threat and a first contact chart that – maybe (I think) – suggest we only make the first contact less than a quarter of the time and it’s always at the back post, I’ve gone for a short routine that looks to draw players out; the only drawback so far has been the offsides for the corner taker. We came from behind against GAIS, with Navik netting a screamer before our work on corners paid off and Matsson took advantage of something I’ve never seen before: a counter following their keeper going up for a corner. The youngster rolled the ball into the net, to score from 35 yards out as we recovered really well from two goals before half time. Ever the perfectionist, I told the team to remain focused and dropped the risk level to Cautious, which made youngster Alvarez Perez anxious; it was then him, both times, who failed to cut out balls leading to their two goals. I can’t get a lot from his Balanced/Media friendly persona but this is one to watch! Our unbeaten league form was ended by Örebro as a soft penalty was converted and we looked a little toothless going forward but our recovery against Trelleborgs was strong. Carstrom netted the goal of the game and I’ve noticed that this is becoming a far more regular pattern for us – a slower and more controlled build up before a change of pace and a clinical entrance to the final third. In fact, our team stats show us as the highest average possession in the league:

Digging a little deeper into this – the highest pass attempters, per 90 mins, are the layers that occupy the two defensive midfield spots, the right back spot and the two centre backs. It feels that, even without asking them to play out of defence, that our possession is coming at the base of the box, with strikers Damus and Engblom both recording less than 22 passes attempted per game with only the keeper Jonson stopping the rest of the bottom six being my three attacking mids and the strikers. I am, overall, fine with this but it’s something to consider, especially against teams who will set out to make this happen by defending really deep and not engaging with our initial build up.

Our early season form has seen us rise to second place in the league and I am feeling pretty confident about building on this and forming something that resembles a promotion push. Our strong form has been built around the performances of my three attacking midfielders:

  

Three young homegrown talents, of which you can see full profiles by clicking on their thumbnail. As I mentioned in the intro part of this post, their attributes are now plotted against their statistical outputs and it's great to see that they are all performing really well compared to what may be expected of them. All three are excelling in ball progression, carrying the ball forward and completing a high number of sprints. Navik and Carstrom are the two creators within the team, either will through balls or crosses and Bengtsson, as he fully returns from injury and adapts to his new role, is second in command to lead the line from his IF(a) role. Carstrom, for me, is the revelation as last season he made 7(17) appearances as he was second to Durmaz, the loanee we had. 

Lets hope that they can keep it up!

[Shrewnaldo]

Don't think I've ever seen a counter against a 'keeper coming up for the corner either. Great stuff. Maybe one of the additions to this year's game along with the animations 

Could you explain the yellow checks on the attribute bars? Not sure I'm understanding that one 

[_Ben_]

49 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Don't think I've ever seen a counter against a 'keeper coming up for the corner either. Great stuff. Maybe one of the additions to this year's game along with the animations 

Could you explain the yellow checks on the attribute bars? Not sure I'm understanding that one 

I’m aware of the issues with goals and am biting my nails each time a highlight starts and I don’t have the ball but I must say that I do really like how the match engine is developing. 

The checks are me trying to corroborate two bits of data. I already use little dots on the stats panel to show percentile ranking, with 5 dots being 90%+ etc.

The way that this works is to overlay the total attributes for each training area, which are banded - so 1-6 has a small bar, 7-10 slightly bigger, 11-15 even bigger and 16-20 biggest - on top of their statistical output in a linked area. In shooting, for example, I have compared Finishing, Long Shots and Technique with goals/90, shots on target % and conversion rate. The stats have a bar, again, banded per percentile amount, but these are the colour of the ‘empty bar’ so that they cannot be seen. I have added a marker at the end so you have a visible end point. These stats are calculated from outfield player averages across the top 20 leagues in a three year period. Sadly, I’ve not been able to do these position stats wide, yet. Hence why attackers will normally have poor positioning outputs because they’re been compared against defenders.

What I was trying to show is a ‘x player is a good at shooting but isn’t finishing well at the moment. Why?’ or ‘y player is poor in the final third but has laid on so many assists. Why?’ Kind of discussion. It’s something that I hope helps with my own work on player form and output development and also in identifying strengths and weaknesses in opponents. 

It’s not perfect - some are duplicated, for example. Speed is compared to only sprints/90 because I’ve yet to find anything else that feels linked. Likewise, there are no set piece only stats to compare that ability too. 

Does that help or muddy it even more?!

Edited November 19, 2023 by _Ben_

[Shrewnaldo]

Erm... 😁

So the blue bar is their attribute profile in that area and the yellow line indicates their statistical output against the global mean? 

[_Ben_]

10 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Erm... 😁

So the blue bar is their attribute profile in that area and the yellow line indicates their statistical output against the global mean? 

Absolutely!

Ideally, I’m looking to ‘see’ the at gold marker because it shows their outputs are greater (not directly correlated but good vs poor, excellent vs good etc) than their attributes. If I can’t ’see’ it - then their attributes might be ‘good’ but outputs ‘poor’ so that means I need to address things tactically, morale-wise or development-wise. 

[Shrewnaldo]

16 minutes ago, _Ben_ said:

Absolutely!

Ideally, I’m looking to ‘see’ the at gold marker because it shows their outputs are greater (not directly correlated but good vs poor, excellent vs good etc) than their attributes. If I can’t ’see’ it - then their attributes might be ‘good’ but outputs ‘poor’ so that means I need to address things tactically, morale-wise or development-wise. 

Got you. I like it. Like you say, it'd be nice to refine that comparison against the mean for their positional peers - or perhaps even top-tier peers - but I really like the quick visual to point at something which might be unusually high or unexpectedly low to go and prompt some further investigation.

[_Ben_]

12 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Got you. I like it. Like you say, it'd be nice to refine that comparison against the mean for their positional peers - or perhaps even top-tier peers - but I really like the quick visual to point at something which might be unusually high or unexpectedly low to go and prompt some further investigation.

The data is there. My FBREF style metric bars work on positional comparison so I think I can do it - just have to put in the time to set up the changes in graphics and classes.

I think that, because I’ve really grown to like the play I’m creating here at Sundsvall, I’m not really in a hurry to move on and, as such, find it easier to dip in and out of gaming and skinning. It’ll be something I can work on without feeling completely left out from moving forwards in my career. Plus, I’m very much a one save-man nowadays so have plenty of time to get to the top, or wherever I may end!

[SteinkelssonFM]

Another data masterclass, I am really looking forward to using this new tool to examine if I can see any reasons as to players are over/underperforming with regards to their outputs. More importantly, is it worthwhile investing time into developing certain attributes over others when taking outputs into consideration. 

Outside of your skinning work, I am really starting to enjoy Sweden, I feel that you are starting to get a feel for the club and forming those relationships with certain individuals. How do you see your time in each nation developing? 

Thanks again for all the time you put into the skin behind the scenes, especially when doing so is taking time away from your own save.

[_Ben_]

3 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Got you. I like it. Like you say, it'd be nice to refine that comparison against the mean for their positional peers - or perhaps even top-tier peers - but I really like the quick visual to point at something which might be unusually high or unexpectedly low to go and prompt some further investigation.

Ok, so I've updated it! As I said - the data was there and just needed comparing and amending where necessary.

For an example - here is my striker, Ronaldo Damus:

He's not scored yet this season but has accrued a value here from hitting the target just 17% of the time. Clearly, there is an issue with that. I can dig deeper and see that he's recording a really strong amount of non-Pen xG per/90, 0.47, he just hasn't found the net yet. Therefore, my concerns around this are likely to be rectified once he gets the rub of the green and settles in with my tactical identity.

 

Now here is Mr Haaland and Mr Engblom. The Norwegian's attribute values are, of course, far far higher than Pontus' and he's doing well - 18 goals in 36 games compared to Pontus' four in six. However, his shots on target percentage isn't as good and he's converting only 11% of all his shots, therefore, you 'may' say that he could be doing slightly better in that area, compared to my lad who is doing amazingly well (69% SoT and 31% conversion rate). But, with the nod to attributes, it's probably fair to say that Engblom's outputs are form rather than quality

It's an idea I've been working through in my head for ages and I'm really glad I've got something down. It's a little rough around the edges still but there is potential to grow it over time. 

[_Ben_]

3 minutes ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Another data masterclass, I am really looking forward to using this new tool to examine if I can see any reasons as to players are over/underperforming with regards to their outputs. More importantly, is it worthwhile investing time into developing certain attributes over others when taking outputs into consideration. 

Outside of your skinning work, I am really starting to enjoy Sweden, I feel that you are starting to get a feel for the club and forming those relationships with certain individuals. How do you see your time in each nation developing? 

Thanks again for all the time you put into the skin behind the scenes, especially when doing so is taking time away from your own save.

Very, very kind words - thank you!

As you can see from the above, I think that these little tools in game just help me with that internal monologue that, when I get to a club that can actually recruit players, will be really pertinent to the discussions I post about. I must say that I've been absolutely obsessed with the turnaround that Unai Emery has had at Villa and my want is to just make my players better so this is really key to look at long term overachievement, essentially. I do wish that Sundsvall had the facilities to actually develop the players off the pitch, but, one day, that'll come! In the meantime, this is absolutely my focus.

I really don't know what path I will take but I do envisage taking Sundsvall up before moving on. IFK Brommapojkarna are a club I like (mainly because they're managed by Olof Mellberg) and their identity fits in with mine in terms of developing youth. However, with King Olof there, I wouldn't want to wish bad on him and take his job! With the Swedish league being a fair bit poorer than the Turkish league that I enjoyed last year, I see that I'll need to become somewhat of a dominant force before a move to somewhere like Germany is available. Either that or success across other Scandinavian countries. I could foresee a path that almost certainly misses Finland and Iceland now but could stop at one of the bigger Norwegian or Danish teams, definitely!

[lfds89]

I haven't spent much time here as work and study are using most of my time, so I hadn't noticed you had already started a new journey.

It's a great read as always, and the skin is getting better with each iteration.

 

Just a question I was dealing with the last time I played: can you somehow filter by position played instead of "natural/accomplished" position? I could never find the option, but on the development screen and on the form screen, players have the statistics distributed by playing position (and even role), so the game is tracking that.

[_Ben_]

On 20/11/2023 at 10:00, lfds89 said:

Just a question I was dealing with the last time I played: can you somehow filter by position played instead of "natural/accomplished" position? I could never find the option, but on the development screen and on the form screen, players have the statistics distributed by playing position (and even role), so the game is tracking that.

No, you can't. But that's ok - because on the Player Tactics area, it is still broken!

[Deisler26]

I'm *loving* the new tactical analysis. Fabulous

[_Ben_]

Wow, I’m addicted. I honestly never anticipated to be living on the absolute edge when I send my second-tier Swedish side – my first club job – into battle, having created an absolutely beautiful brand of football and feeling an already quite immense loyalty to my players, but…here I am! There is so much farther to go and progress in this save but the time I’m pouring into every tactical, training, press conference decision makes me feel that this will be a long and fruitful save.

With that in mind, I’ve decided not to write about each and every post and actually play a fair bit through the save, looking at a couple of other areas. That being said, I couldn’t not post a gif of this wonderful strike from Damus as he opened his account for the club in the 7-0 rout of Åtvidabergs. We also had to deal with an annoying issue that saw the loss of Svanberg – because, apparently, a centre back being played as a centre back is not correct! That being said, I quickly moved on and signed a new contract with the club as I look to build on this success and, hopefully, take Sundsvall back up to the top flight. You can see a full match report of each of the nine games, shown below, by clicking on the thumbnail.

 

The results have seen us climb to the top of the league but, with one point separating the top five, I’m cautious to get carried away. Scoring at two a game and conceded a two goals in three is really strong and, Varbergs’ scoring aside, we’ve got the best record.

---

Wanting to keep things as realistic as possible but also knowing that, given our current league position, I’d be foolish to not think about next year, I wanted to keep the transfers simple and ones that would normally be available to a club of our standings.

Enter Yaya Kader Fofana.

In the Ivorian-born-Malian's short career to date, he’s played in France and Mali and has actually featured five times, all off the bench, in Ligue Une, for Reims. Scandinavia feels like a real stomping ground for Africans to either get to the continent or to re-find their feat, given the somewhat lax rules on foreign players. I find myself inundated with Agent offers and am normally quick to delete those many, many offers for 35+ year old Argentines, who’ve never left their country. Yet this one felt different: a youngster who hadn’t quite made the cut in a higher level and one who was willing to come in without breaking the bank. Yaya immediately joined on trial and was strong across a series of friendlies for the reserve squad. My staff have outlined some concerns about his injury proneness, but his medical history, long illness aside, is pretty much clean. My biggest interest though is, when compared with Pichkah, he’s a stronger option for my VOL(a) role and, when Salaou’s loan ends, will allow Paya to move back into the more defensive minded role that he, probably, prefers.

In terms of his development, I'll be using the VOL(a) schedule to retrain him as a DM with a focus on his defensive positioning, which currently sits as the weakest area, bar aerial threat, in his game. I'm going to toy with what traits to add but I feel something like 'Plays Killer Balls' might work really nicely as, when it attack, he'll form the top of my box with Navik, who also has that. Therefore, it feels even more imperative that my striker is fast and can get in behind to really allow these balls to have maximum impact.

Yaya is just another example of my want to have young, hungry footballers at the club who I can develop. Below are our top prospects:

I would already consider both Navik and Forsberg to be developed but I really like that, for a club of our size, there are a number of really strong candidates for the first team. Viktor Mattson is currently working to develop as a PF(a) with focus on his intelligence in the final third as I look to develop him into Engblom's long term successor - a far more suited man to my striker role with bags of pace and an eye for goal. Likewise, Palsson is starting to see more football on the wing and will look to also develop his footballing intelligence. Filip Aberg is an interesting prospect at left back whilst Torstensson is some way off challenging at present. Our coaching setup needs some work but my focus on these lads is to really build a strong core of homegrown players, supplemented by experience from elsewhere. To quality assure their development, I'm giving them as many minutes as I can, talking to them about their performances - both good and bad - and ensuring that I'm commenting on their training and development regularly. As I, currently, lack more evidence of their performances, I feel that working on player traits will come in weeks, months or years to come.

As I said - I'm feeling really connected to the players, the team and the league itself: long may this continue!

[Henke90]

Absolutely flying! 

[_Ben_]

14 hours ago, Henke90 said:

Absolutely flying! 

'Flying' is something that I'm not entirely sure about, actually! I'm in the process of writing up the next seven games - given that I had some good playing time yesterday - so you'll soon see my thoughts...

[_Ben_]

I had to make this graphic especially for this update! I was not planning another update until the end of the season but - for me - the best way to solve a problem can sometimes be to dive head first into it. Here are the first five fixtures following the previous update, with a full set of match stats available by clicking on each thumbnail:

 

Four draws and one victory is not exactly what I’d call title contender form but, luckily, Varnamo went 3-2-0, GAIS went 2-3-0, Osters went 2-1-2 and Varbergs went 2-1-2, meaning we didn’t really lose pace. Yet, things just didn’t feel right with our game play. The lack of any clean sheets does not sit well with me but I also felt that our attacking play was a little bit rigid and forced and we lacked the little bit of a spark needed to put the games to bed. We’re tired, obviously, as late goals in the last three games (although the Ostersunds goal was a little more than a consolation) shows that both fatigue is an issue as is my use of substitutes.

But I also wanted to break it down further than that, so this is what I did:

I compared each of the five games with our overall season averages, where possible, and looked to draw any conclusions from the opponents we were facing. What I found most interesting though came through some deeper diving, look at the shots and shot quality from each area of the pitch. I know that I have one striker compared to five midfielders, but seeing a maximum of 16.7% of all shots taken by them feels a bit concerning, but, a shown by the green cells, two of the games saw some very good chances – with Mattson somehow missing a 0.90xG open goal in the GAIS tie. The majority of shots are coming from midfielders, which is great overall, and the quality of them is generally better than what Engblom and Matsson are getting, but they aren’t strikers for a reason! I dug even deeper into this and watched all the moves that led to midfielders shooting and a good proportion of the time – of the total 48 shots – the ball was worked back to the edge of the box where the majority of them were before a long shot came in. The higher xG shots really skewed the overall stats and it just felt pretty clear that, by the time we’d got forward, the opposition defences had recovered and, as such, we were outnumbered in the box.

So, I did this. We already regroup when we lose the ball and our rest defence is really strong but I’ve added the Counter instruction to try and increase the pace that we break at, creating – hopefully – more opportunities where we can have numerical advantages, or, at least, not such disadvantages in and around their box. My hope is that this allows our midfielders better shooting options and gives more chance of the ball finding our strikers, who are – predominantly – in the team for their finishing ability.

My little change ran for two games before I decided that I’d already written enough words in this update…

Rule one – don’t make five subs when 4-0 up at half time with a completely complacent bench! Rule two – utilise the counter! Ten goals scored feels like a strong turnaround statistically, particularly the Orebro result, as they are a team of a similar stature. We created 5.13xG against Karlstad from a total of 24 shots, which did include one penalty whilst two of the goals came from midfield in Palsson and Damus. 2.77xG from 19 shots against Orebo with strikers scoring none of them also feels like I’ve half fixed this issue.

Again, it’s one to let run and to monitor as time goes on!

---

This man.

I think that 95% of the comparison idea came from seeing ‘Yaya’ on the back of his shirt burst through the midfield, making me think of a fellow Ivorian-born midfielder with a similar name. Whilst, at 5’11”, he does lack a little bit of the stature that Yaya Touré had, I do see my Malian man as being a key cog in the team and someone who can help us drive forward. I used a Bleacher Report article to get a nice explanation of the change in role that Yaya Toure went through following his move from Barca to Man City:

“There he was asked to sit deep, break up attacks, play simple balls to the likes of Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta, and generally do the leg work in order for the attacking players to shine. It was an incredibly narrow remit for a player with such an obvious array of qualities. He was eventually usurped by the emerging Sergio Busquets, an out-an-out defensive midfielder and a native of Catalonia who had risen through Barcelona’s youth set-up. The former City boss, Roberto Mancini, who had made his interest clear months before, wasted no time in bringing him to City once the transfer window opened. Under Mancini, everything changed. Suddenly he had licence to run at the heart of the defence with his pace and power. He was central to City’s attacks, becoming a box-to-box midfielder and exerting influence all over the pitch—a far cry from being a small cog in the glittering Barcelona wheel.”

I think that this role is absolutely perfect to our style of play. With that in mind, I created a little comparison between FM24 Fofana and FM12 Yaya, who – at the time – was 30 and playing at Man City. The results were, thankfully, pretty much what I expected – a man who lacks a little bit of defending quality plus that overall top-end strength that Yaya was synonymous for when moving with the ball. Immediately, my development plan for Fofana has switched from VOL(a) to BWM(d) with a Defensive Positioning focus; he’ll still play, for now, as a Volante, but this will allow him to both learn his new DM position and develop a couple of his weak areas.

Without FM12 to fire up to get a direct, SI Games comparison and, to be fair, without FM12 having the depth of stats that FM24 had, I was able to dig into another Bleacher Report article to find out really what made Yaya good on the pitch:

“The outstanding form of Fernandinho has been key to Touré's brilliance so far this season. Fernandinho has been superb for much of this campaign, offering excellent protection to the back four. He is consistently in the right place at the right time, and his energy levels mean he makes tackles and interceptions all over the pitch.

That has allowed Touré to increase his performance, as demonstrated by the stats below. He has scored seven league goals in 14 appearances, and has managed an incredible 92 percent passing accuracy level. He barely ever gives the ball away, and is adding more goals to his already accomplished game.

Passing, Chances & Goals:

·         2012/13 – 90% pass accuracy, avg length 17m, 22 chances created, 2 goals and 2 assists. 63.5% of his passes are forwards.

·         2013/14 – 92% pass accuracy, avg length 17m, 17 chances created, 7 goals and 3 assists. 65.3% are forwards.

As these stats show, Touré is more clinical when in possession and is making better use of the ball this season compared to last.

Shooting:

·         2012/13: 40% shot accuracy, 25 shots at a 8% chance conversion rate.

·         2013/14: 65% accuracy from 15 shots at a 41.2% chance conversion rate

His shooting accuracy and conversion rates are also up considerably on last season.

His powerful bursts from midfield are an incredible facet to his game, and gives City an edge that few other sides can match. Touré moves through the gears at pace, with his close control and sheer strength meaning he can beat players and take City up the pitch within seconds. This season, he has a 70 percent take on rate.”

Whilst I can’t measure pass length, I can quite easily look at two metrics that made Yaya stand out: High conversion rates and highly progressive ability – mainly through passing.

With that in mind, and, with this essentially being my first signing for the first team, I wanted to get a deeper analysis of his play, so dug into his first six games with us. Below you can see the combined map for passes, dribbles and shots:

The role that I’m creating is really niche and, prior to this, had trusted Pichkah with it, without really making a concerted effort to find out whether or not he was actually good at it. Below are the statistics that I was able to collect, with a comparative colour at the bottom – but more on that later on.

I feel that Bleacher’s stats on ‘forward passes’ must include sideways, too, because that rate is far far higher than what I have seen, even with such an aggressive role in the VOL(a) one. However, looking at a total of 79% not-backwards passing feels pretty decent, although I do feel that his defensive outputs are lower than I’d like and his scoring exploits, minus a goal against Ostersunds, could be much better. Overall, I didn’t feel that he was enough of the heartbeat of the team, but I did – and still do – feel slightly conscious about making him an RPM(s) because a) the support role will mean less aggressive play than an attack role and b) I don’t necessarily want to use a playmaker as I feel it can take a little away from a pacey and, ultimately, lethal, counter attack. So… I modified his player role, as seen below. Adding Dribble More, Shoot More Often and Take More Risks, as well as asking him to Move into Channels when the team has the ball would hopefully make him engage with the attacking phases of our play, creating, essentially a 3-2-5 shape from the 3-box-3 that we transition with.

Obviously, this run of form coincides with a slight dip in our own fortunes and I must remember that this is a man who, initially, was without match sharpness, new to the country and not being able to speak a word of Swedish and new to the tactical setup, without being even competent in the DM role. With that in mind, I do feel he’s done a pretty stellar job of adapting, yet, I am ever the perfectionist and think he’s capable of more!  Which makes the next two games even more satisfying – both to watch and to analyse. New instructions in place and a chance to get some minutes in against a lower league team in the cup and a team of equal standing to ourselves in a tough, tough league game at home.

In red, I am able to compare where a statistic has decreased in value compared to the previous set of games and in green where it has increased. Whilst Yaya has made fewer forward passes, his overall total of non-backwards passes has risen to 84%, which has allowed an increase to 3.7 key passes a game and a 7% increase on the percentage of total passes that can be classed as ‘key’ – certainly a nice step forward. Now also created an xA of around 0.5 per/90 and registering an assist in each of the two games is – albeit a small sample – an example of extra impetus going forward. His attacking outputs, registering a goal in each set of matches, is quite similar and he’s completed less dribbles but I do feel that there is progress here.

His overall output from six games looks pretty top draw, if I’m honest. I can’t wait to see just how far he can take this role! My thoughts for his continued development are:

Develop traits of ‘Runs with ball through the centre’ and then ‘Tries killer balls often’ – I believe that both of these will work with his attribute set and allow ability to progress the ball more, especially as dribbling is one of the weaker areas of his statistical output at the moment. I may then look at ‘Plays One-Twos’ as I do think that has progressive qualities but when you look at how we build up, below, I think it’s important that I give him the space and freedom rather than dragging him closer to others, as this trait may encourage.

Following that, I may look at a Finishing trait, such as ‘Curls ball’ or ‘Places Shots’ given his high levels of Finishing, Technique and Composure and the fact that he’s a right footed player predominantly cutting in from the left.

---

I will - almost definitely now - be back at the end of the season for a wrap up and, hopefully, some good news on the promotion front!

[Hootieleece]

I am always blown away by the depth of your analysis.

[Jogo Bonito]

Agreed, fantastic attention to detail and can really feel how immersed you are in this. I really love the graphical efforts too.

[phnompenhandy]

(Very) late to the party here, but been going through every post. I also am simply stunned at the depth and quality of the posts, and how much they can teach the rest of us about the hidden depths of FM.

[Chris_ANZFM]

On 26/11/2023 at 04:23, _Ben_ said:

I had to make this graphic especially for this update! I was not planning another update until the end of the season but - for me - the best way to solve a problem can sometimes be to dive head first into it. Here are the first five fixtures following the previous update, with a full set of match stats available by clicking on each thumbnail:

 

Four draws and one victory is not exactly what I’d call title contender form but, luckily, Varnamo went 3-2-0, GAIS went 2-3-0, Osters went 2-1-2 and Varbergs went 2-1-2, meaning we didn’t really lose pace. Yet, things just didn’t feel right with our game play. The lack of any clean sheets does not sit well with me but I also felt that our attacking play was a little bit rigid and forced and we lacked the little bit of a spark needed to put the games to bed. We’re tired, obviously, as late goals in the last three games (although the Ostersunds goal was a little more than a consolation) shows that both fatigue is an issue as is my use of substitutes.

But I also wanted to break it down further than that, so this is what I did:

I compared each of the five games with our overall season averages, where possible, and looked to draw any conclusions from the opponents we were facing. What I found most interesting though came through some deeper diving, look at the shots and shot quality from each area of the pitch. I know that I have one striker compared to five midfielders, but seeing a maximum of 16.7% of all shots taken by them feels a bit concerning, but, a shown by the green cells, two of the games saw some very good chances – with Mattson somehow missing a 0.90xG open goal in the GAIS tie. The majority of shots are coming from midfielders, which is great overall, and the quality of them is generally better than what Engblom and Matsson are getting, but they aren’t strikers for a reason! I dug even deeper into this and watched all the moves that led to midfielders shooting and a good proportion of the time – of the total 48 shots – the ball was worked back to the edge of the box where the majority of them were before a long shot came in. The higher xG shots really skewed the overall stats and it just felt pretty clear that, by the time we’d got forward, the opposition defences had recovered and, as such, we were outnumbered in the box.

So, I did this. We already regroup when we lose the ball and our rest defence is really strong but I’ve added the Counter instruction to try and increase the pace that we break at, creating – hopefully – more opportunities where we can have numerical advantages, or, at least, not such disadvantages in and around their box. My hope is that this allows our midfielders better shooting options and gives more chance of the ball finding our strikers, who are – predominantly – in the team for their finishing ability.

My little change ran for two games before I decided that I’d already written enough words in this update…

Rule one – don’t make five subs when 4-0 up at half time with a completely complacent bench! Rule two – utilise the counter! Ten goals scored feels like a strong turnaround statistically, particularly the Orebro result, as they are a team of a similar stature. We created 5.13xG against Karlstad from a total of 24 shots, which did include one penalty whilst two of the goals came from midfield in Palsson and Damus. 2.77xG from 19 shots against Orebo with strikers scoring none of them also feels like I’ve half fixed this issue.

Again, it’s one to let run and to monitor as time goes on!

---

This man.

I think that 95% of the comparison idea came from seeing ‘Yaya’ on the back of his shirt burst through the midfield, making me think of a fellow Ivorian-born midfielder with a similar name. Whilst, at 5’11”, he does lack a little bit of the stature that Yaya Touré had, I do see my Malian man as being a key cog in the team and someone who can help us drive forward. I used a Bleacher Report article to get a nice explanation of the change in role that Yaya Toure went through following his move from Barca to Man City:

“There he was asked to sit deep, break up attacks, play simple balls to the likes of Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta, and generally do the leg work in order for the attacking players to shine. It was an incredibly narrow remit for a player with such an obvious array of qualities. He was eventually usurped by the emerging Sergio Busquets, an out-an-out defensive midfielder and a native of Catalonia who had risen through Barcelona’s youth set-up. The former City boss, Roberto Mancini, who had made his interest clear months before, wasted no time in bringing him to City once the transfer window opened. Under Mancini, everything changed. Suddenly he had licence to run at the heart of the defence with his pace and power. He was central to City’s attacks, becoming a box-to-box midfielder and exerting influence all over the pitch—a far cry from being a small cog in the glittering Barcelona wheel.”

I think that this role is absolutely perfect to our style of play. With that in mind, I created a little comparison between FM24 Fofana and FM12 Yaya, who – at the time – was 30 and playing at Man City. The results were, thankfully, pretty much what I expected – a man who lacks a little bit of defending quality plus that overall top-end strength that Yaya was synonymous for when moving with the ball. Immediately, my development plan for Fofana has switched from VOL(a) to BWM(d) with a Defensive Positioning focus; he’ll still play, for now, as a Volante, but this will allow him to both learn his new DM position and develop a couple of his weak areas.

Without FM12 to fire up to get a direct, SI Games comparison and, to be fair, without FM12 having the depth of stats that FM24 had, I was able to dig into another Bleacher Report article to find out really what made Yaya good on the pitch:

“The outstanding form of Fernandinho has been key to Touré's brilliance so far this season. Fernandinho has been superb for much of this campaign, offering excellent protection to the back four. He is consistently in the right place at the right time, and his energy levels mean he makes tackles and interceptions all over the pitch.

That has allowed Touré to increase his performance, as demonstrated by the stats below. He has scored seven league goals in 14 appearances, and has managed an incredible 92 percent passing accuracy level. He barely ever gives the ball away, and is adding more goals to his already accomplished game.

Passing, Chances & Goals:

·         2012/13 – 90% pass accuracy, avg length 17m, 22 chances created, 2 goals and 2 assists. 63.5% of his passes are forwards.

·         2013/14 – 92% pass accuracy, avg length 17m, 17 chances created, 7 goals and 3 assists. 65.3% are forwards.

As these stats show, Touré is more clinical when in possession and is making better use of the ball this season compared to last.

Shooting:

·         2012/13: 40% shot accuracy, 25 shots at a 8% chance conversion rate.

·         2013/14: 65% accuracy from 15 shots at a 41.2% chance conversion rate

His shooting accuracy and conversion rates are also up considerably on last season.

His powerful bursts from midfield are an incredible facet to his game, and gives City an edge that few other sides can match. Touré moves through the gears at pace, with his close control and sheer strength meaning he can beat players and take City up the pitch within seconds. This season, he has a 70 percent take on rate.”

Whilst I can’t measure pass length, I can quite easily look at two metrics that made Yaya stand out: High conversion rates and highly progressive ability – mainly through passing.

With that in mind, and, with this essentially being my first signing for the first team, I wanted to get a deeper analysis of his play, so dug into his first six games with us. Below you can see the combined map for passes, dribbles and shots:

The role that I’m creating is really niche and, prior to this, had trusted Pichkah with it, without really making a concerted effort to find out whether or not he was actually good at it. Below are the statistics that I was able to collect, with a comparative colour at the bottom – but more on that later on.

I feel that Bleacher’s stats on ‘forward passes’ must include sideways, too, because that rate is far far higher than what I have seen, even with such an aggressive role in the VOL(a) one. However, looking at a total of 79% not-backwards passing feels pretty decent, although I do feel that his defensive outputs are lower than I’d like and his scoring exploits, minus a goal against Ostersunds, could be much better. Overall, I didn’t feel that he was enough of the heartbeat of the team, but I did – and still do – feel slightly conscious about making him an RPM(s) because a) the support role will mean less aggressive play than an attack role and b) I don’t necessarily want to use a playmaker as I feel it can take a little away from a pacey and, ultimately, lethal, counter attack. So… I modified his player role, as seen below. Adding Dribble More, Shoot More Often and Take More Risks, as well as asking him to Move into Channels when the team has the ball would hopefully make him engage with the attacking phases of our play, creating, essentially a 3-2-5 shape from the 3-box-3 that we transition with.

Obviously, this run of form coincides with a slight dip in our own fortunes and I must remember that this is a man who, initially, was without match sharpness, new to the country and not being able to speak a word of Swedish and new to the tactical setup, without being even competent in the DM role. With that in mind, I do feel he’s done a pretty stellar job of adapting, yet, I am ever the perfectionist and think he’s capable of more!  Which makes the next two games even more satisfying – both to watch and to analyse. New instructions in place and a chance to get some minutes in against a lower league team in the cup and a team of equal standing to ourselves in a tough, tough league game at home.

In red, I am able to compare where a statistic has decreased in value compared to the previous set of games and in green where it has increased. Whilst Yaya has made fewer forward passes, his overall total of non-backwards passes has risen to 84%, which has allowed an increase to 3.7 key passes a game and a 7% increase on the percentage of total passes that can be classed as ‘key’ – certainly a nice step forward. Now also created an xA of around 0.5 per/90 and registering an assist in each of the two games is – albeit a small sample – an example of extra impetus going forward. His attacking outputs, registering a goal in each set of matches, is quite similar and he’s completed less dribbles but I do feel that there is progress here.

His overall output from six games looks pretty top draw, if I’m honest. I can’t wait to see just how far he can take this role! My thoughts for his continued development are:

Develop traits of ‘Runs with ball through the centre’ and then ‘Tries killer balls often’ – I believe that both of these will work with his attribute set and allow ability to progress the ball more, especially as dribbling is one of the weaker areas of his statistical output at the moment. I may then look at ‘Plays One-Twos’ as I do think that has progressive qualities but when you look at how we build up, below, I think it’s important that I give him the space and freedom rather than dragging him closer to others, as this trait may encourage.

Following that, I may look at a Finishing trait, such as ‘Curls ball’ or ‘Places Shots’ given his high levels of Finishing, Technique and Composure and the fact that he’s a right footed player predominantly cutting in from the left.

---

I will - almost definitely now - be back at the end of the season for a wrap up and, hopefully, some good news on the promotion front!

Much like the others are saying the depth of analysis is next level. I’ve been a fan of your work for a good few years now but there’s something about this one. The section on Yaya in particular that really feels quite special. 
 

I’m loving how your feelings for Sweden are growing because I don’t ever want this save to end. 

[keeper#1]

Great read as always Ben!

[fslashz]

just read the last post and. wow. stuff like this makes me want to open up FM24 and get completely immersed in all the statistical possibilities of the game.

[_Ben_]

@Jogo Bonito, @phnompenhandy, @fslashz, @keeper#1 and @Chris_ANZFM

Thank you, so much, for the kind words. I don't write it for the engagement but I do love the feedback I get. Please fire away and questions, ideas, screenshot requests!

On 27/11/2023 at 09:53, Chris_ANZFM said:

I’m loving how your feelings for Sweden are growing because I don’t ever want this save to end. 

I've said it at the end of every save over the last few years - Matroyshka, Age of Empires and now this that it's been my best ever save but I've never grown into it as early as I have here. Sorry Meyrin, Mashuk and Menemenspor - GIF Sundsvall has that crown now!

[Deisler26]

All hail the GIF!

[SixPointer]

A fully fledged tactic man indeed! Interesting to see if your tweaks will continue to see so many goals flow!

[_Ben_]

Well, where do I start?!

CHAMPIONS!

Three months of games since the last update but we are over the line, just. Our form was incredible, with the only blip – really – coming in an abject performance away at Osters, where we couldn’t manage a shot on target across the entire ninety minutes. With two games to go, we could have secured the title but fell to a defeat away at Varnamo, which did worry me somewhat. Against Jonkopings, I knew I had to match the result of our title rivals, who, themselves, were facing our own rivals in Ostersunds. There was a palpable release when our bitterest rivals took the lead midway into the first half and a genuine, real life, fist pump when Fofana nodded in just after the hour. In the end, two more goals – one for Varnamo and one for Jonkopings – didn’t spoil the affair and we were crowned champions and promoted back to the top tier!

At face value, we shouldn't be getting too carried away with the league performance, if I'm being totally honest. Whilst three defeats - 100% better than the next best side - is great as is having the best defence and the best offence, eleven draws shows that we were, more often than not, unable to put a game to bed. This is particularly a worry with our away record - 5-7-3 with a total of 22 points accrued - which is around 60% of our home points. What is more, forty-two home goals to twenty-four away goals feels like something I should be checking in with, particularly as we favour a counter attacking style where possible and would, therefore, expect more opportunities to do so against attacking home sides. I know that the challenge from the top flight will be significantly harder than what we've faced here but I back our tactical identity and, given that is is still very much defence first, don't feel that I really need to change much unless personnel dictates that to me. Therefore, I can quite easily dig into the stats, knowing where I want to see improvements - again, from either recruitment or player development - for next term.

I haven't done my research into this but I feel that, as the top team in the league, we should also be the best team in the league. I wonder how many clubs have got promoted without being in the higher percentiles for team stats - particularly those involving build up and scoring outputs. I am delighted to see that our Clearances, Blocks and Tackles are below the league average - part down to the lack of defending but then also part down to the hard hours we've grafted to create a strong shape and a drilled backline, who prioritise interceptions and create unforced errors as opposed to directly engaging with the opposition, as also seen by own low fouls committed total. Offensively, we are in a really strong position across most areas - as you'd expect from the top scorers. We do, sometimes, allow ourselves to become a bit rash with shooting - pulling the trigger whenever we get sight of the goal because of the speed and directness of our transition combined with our excellent dribbling outputs but I think that there is scope to investigate the 'fouled/game' metric: we have aggressive, fast, direct wingers and I really think that a little bit more risk in taking the man on may lead to some extra opportunities, of which I'm able to dig into some nice new metrics for:

Around mid-season, I changed our corner setup to mainly use short corners, but kept the man there for the less often used inswinger, hoping to pull another man out and allow ourselves the best possible opportunities. It's clear that we're not bad aerially because we are pretty dominant defensively, losing only 16% of far post headers and 23% of near. There  is clearly a concern in the central area - with Jonsson's (lack of) command - as we win 77% there but opponents, as an average, win 92% of theirs. Despite the red areas in our first contacts, we have still scored a good amount of goals from set pieces - 7 from corners (9 behind Orebro), 1 direct free kick (1 behind best teams) and 3 from a result of a free kick (4 less than Atvidaberg). At the other end, we've conceded five from corners (7 less than Sandvikens), none from freekicks or results of free kicks - which is eight behind Osters. I think, with a stronger set piece taker, I can make some further inroads here, especially as our chances in open play may be somewhat reduced.

It is that open play that I'm also interesting in digging into. We play quite a dangerous game with the highest line (but, importantly, not an intentional high block) and put little pressure on the ball - asking the less skilled defenders to thread a ball through a bank of two fours or over the top. We do that well although we are, clearly, leaking through some times as you can see by so many defensive actions being a bit last gasp - although, given the amount of xA from set pieces that we concede per game - I envisage that a good chunk of that comes from corners. I really like that we gain possession quite high up, showing that the block that we create - pulling the wingers back - is effective. Our use of 'counter' in the transition stage might change the correlation between possession gains and pass attempts but it is clear to see where our very two-paced transition switches from passes around the defenders to aggressive dribbling.

Our overall player stats show some absolutely fantastic performances, but I want to dig into how they look positionally, ensuring the the squad are, on the whole, performing well in their roles.

GOALKEEPING

When looking at the types of goals conceded, it adds weight to the fact that Jonsson maybe doesn't command his goal as he possibly should be. Lots of goals come in close - inside the six yard box - and I do think he should be doing better there and, when you look Jonsson' save types, you'll see that his hold to parry ratio is nearly 1:1 - again a worry. Overall, his saves vs expected saves is great and his passing outputs are, as you'd expect for a league that isn't really going to be built around sweeper keepers, strong. Yet my thoughts still remain that he may be a player who could be upgraded on. I'd be - almost certainly - looking for someone bigger than his 6'1" frame, not overly reliant on one foot and with strong Handling.

DEFENDING

Once again, all of my defenders are efficient in that they don't have to deal with too many blocks, clearances or tackles - although the tackles attempted scatter shows a significant increase for the wide defenders. This amount of tackles surely is linked with both us trying to full wide men out to stop crosses and then also because teams often favoured a wing play style against us. However, maybe the funneling wide wasn't always necessary as our heading outputs show that those who require strong heading performances, have it.  With a central block of four as well as two full backs, I do feel that I need to explore pushing players inside a little more often. Looking for weak areas, based on where our goals were conceded from, I must note that Forsberg's defensive tackling was poor across the season from right back. Looking at the attribute/stat comparison that I made, I'd actually say he's underperformed his attributes in the Positioning area (which includes tackling), although Tackling is the weakest of those three attributes and this directly correlates with the opponent's assist locations. He's a good young player but, maybe, hasn't quite kicked on like the others - one to watch next year. Going forward, I'm delighted with the strong passers that we are in that aforementioned two-paced build up. The next job is a centre back who can stop play, bait a press and allow us to increase the build up speed a little closer to our goal, whilst utilising a bit more directness further forward.

MIDFIELD

The midfielders in the team have been fantastic and, looking at our assist locations, you'll see that Zone 14 has been really well utilised, particularly with Ludvig Navik and his twenty-four goal contributions this season. My only mid season signing saw Yaya Fofana join and looking at the passes vs assists, you can see the nice change from Pichkah to Fofana in this role. However, annoyingly for Pichkah, his season output had reset for some reason to show only 5(3) games played as a BWM(s). Never the less, his performances were really strong and his progressive passing, when in that ball winning role - as the replacement for Salaou - was really strong.  The physical output for all four midfielders was great, but, being picky - I see the VOL(a) role as an attacking midfielder and, as such, I'd like to see more dribbles from Yaya - hence a move to the Runs with ball through centre trait. Our scoring record (again, skewed by Pichkah) was sublime and Navik's creativity has been wonderful to watch as he plays like a real old-fashioned #10.

ATTACK

I've been gifted the ultimate attacking duo in Engblom and Mattson as, when looking at shooting efficiency, both strikers top right in the often/clinical area. We play to our strengths - using Engblom's aerial ability and Mattson's ability to demonstrate close dribbling skill. I also love that our scoring output is good across several players and our goal types are different enough to demonstrate the wider ability we have within the attacking area. The wingers are tricky and dribble towards the byline before crossing or shooting - which is pretty much ideal in the style that I want to play although, as expected at this level, the player's offensive output shows that they are either a finisher or a creator, not both. My goal for next season would, ideally, be to develop or find someone who can bridge that gap. I would also like to develop players that can draw fouls, either through traits or high flair.

---

With that in mind, I want to start the process of shaping my squad. Regardless of how long I will or how long I intend to spend here at Sundsvall, I want to create a brand of football that comes through attributes and through playing styles. Although the players are going on holiday in a matter of days, I still want to set them up on their schedules and get traits in and underway. I have read many ‘recommendations’ not to teach traits to under 18s as this is optimal development time – see it from the other side that this may mean traits are learnt quicker and have come to these conclusions based on a few areas:

• Positional ability
• Tactical identity
• Sell on ability

With those three - I could choose a role that benefits the player's position, such as asking a winger to stay wide or an inverted player to cut in, with the tactical identity, you can see that I'm using the Stops Play as part of my plan to bait a press and, in terms of sell on ability, I know that a winger who can utilise his pace (but maybe lack an end product) may become more fancied if he just knocks the ball past his opponent - although these traits are not just for that, as you can see from above. It also gives me a chance to introduce my top youth players from the intake: Alexander Rosenberg, Dejan Begovic, Alexander Lundin, Alfred Nilsson, Marcelo Svensson and Mattias Otherus will all be nurtured, receive first team minutes where appropriate and hopefully continue the tradition of what is already well underway with the club's academy.

---

I'm under no illusions about the difficulty of the summer: no homework has been done as the reputation changes from promotions make it almost impossible to create a target market and we are also certainly not too well off and I've been given a €20k to see me into the new season. However, I do have hope within the squad we have and feel that, if I continue to give players opportunities to get better, then we'll be ok!

[Lestri]

What a result! Great to see your breakdown of how you actually thought you went versus what the table says. Looking forward to see how you approach the start of the next season.

[Shrewnaldo]

It'll be interesting to see how that high line fares in the top league, assuming you'll be sticking with it? With both the improved quality of the centre backs to play those difficult passes, and better strikers / wingers to make those passes easier... 

Looking at your squad, there's a lot of PA but not a lot of CA. Are you thinking about bringing in more experienced, short-term options to shore it up a bit?

[_Ben_]

On 01/12/2023 at 01:48, Lestri said:

What a result! Great to see your breakdown of how you actually thought you went versus what the table says. Looking forward to see how you approach the start of the next season.

Thanks! Yeah - I do like having the eye test comparison to the statistical output. My plans are very much evolution and not revolution but we shall see where it takes me! I also kind of like the patch coming in the off-season so I can re-address any ME changes.

17 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

It'll be interesting to see how that high line fares in the top league, assuming you'll be sticking with it? With both the improved quality of the centre backs to play those difficult passes, and better strikers / wingers to make those passes easier... 

It's really not intentional but I've done a little bit more digging to find out why. We currently have a standard defensive line and use a mid block but we've been pretty imperious when cutting out the long balls and, as such, it feels like the game is recording that as a much higher turnover than it actually may seem. I've taken our defensive actions from the last game - against Jonkopings - here:

In there are headers, tackles, interceptions and clearances. I'm excluding those in our box because they'll be from corners and when our defence has been breached. The line I've added - mainly showing headers - would indicate the starting position of our backline in a defensive situation, in my eyes.The interceptions, those that have a white border around them, come much higher up but that is because I already have that back six and my rest defence is always super cautious combined with the fact I pull both wingers back to the ML and MR areas through marking instructions. That gives me, essentially, nine men behind the ball for those defensive actions - crowding out their offensive space and winning the ball back a little bit higher up than the actual line. I know that we'll get caught out more often this season, given the almost complete lack of pressure on their defenders, knowing they'll be better with their distribution, but it's a risk that I will try and calculate against. It's something that - as a Villa fan - I've seen Emery toy with over the last season and into this one and I will also need to react to.

You may see that and think different - which, if you do - I'd love to discuss!

17 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Looking at your squad, there's a lot of PA but not a lot of CA. Are you thinking about bringing in more experienced, short-term options to shore it up a bit?

That bottom screenshot was the entire club based on PA but I definitely agree that we need some experience - mainly at this level rather than anywhere - to bolster the youngsters in the squad. It's funny that I've been driven, financially (an area I know you're well versed in), to using the youth system because our coaching setup is really pretty poor and on my list of off-season stuff anyway!

I want four or five first team players to join the squad before I'll feel happy that we've got what we need to put on a bit of a show at this level!

[SteinkelssonFM]

First and foremost congratulations on securing the title! Nice to see that you have been having a large success exploiting the opposition via Zone 14, those through balls are working effectively. Given your dominance in the league, I am a little surprised to see that you haven't had too many assists stem from areas within the box, I would have thought the opposition would have opted to sit deeper, with a good old 'park the bus' style approach.

On 30/11/2023 at 22:22, _Ben_ said:

I changed our corner setup

This is an area of the game which I haven't given much thought to at present wit Ajax. However, I do want to explore the set-piece element of the game, as I am a strong believer that a good set-piece can be the differentiator between sides, especially in those close encounters. What has your experience been and what key takeaways would you be willing to share to aid Ajax. 

[_Ben_]

35 minutes ago, MattyLewis11 said:

First and foremost congratulations on securing the title! Nice to see that you have been having a large success exploiting the opposition via Zone 14, those through balls are working effectively. Given your dominance in the league, I am a little surprised to see that you haven't had too many assists stem from areas within the box, I would have thought the opposition would have opted to sit deeper, with a good old 'park the bus' style approach.

Thank you!

I think is also one where the eye test takes over a little bit. I'd say that, given the five that we attack with (IF, VOL, AF, AM, W) and the positional fluidity of the AM moving into channels, we don't always get the ball into Zone 14. It's not an issue at the moment but, this year especially, I don't have a tall striker and won't benefit from balls that go wide and are then crossed in. Also - the fact that Navik, my AM, was the top scorer with a lot of his goals coming from Zone 14 is a reason why there aren't more assists from there!

42 minutes ago, MattyLewis11 said:

This is an area of the game which I haven't given much thought to at present wit Ajax. However, I do want to explore the set-piece element of the game, as I am a strong believer that a good set-piece can be the differentiator between sides, especially in those close encounters. What has your experience been and what key takeaways would you be willing to share to aid Ajax. 

Yeah - it's been quite a big thing. I actually really like the systems this year and how they're much more fluid in terms of what you see on the pitch. I have a short corner that I have selected 'more often' in usage. I have quite a small offence, so like to remove the crowd from the box and try and isolate my big few players against theirs with everyone else outside the box to either stop a quick break or to work the ball in another way. I still think we lack a proper set piece taker but that'll come with time.

[_Ben_]

 

The most logical place to begin feels like the incoming transfer dealings, given that the correct recruitment this summer may well make or break our season. In previous editions of FM, I’d spend hours exporting the data into Excel and creating as many charts, visualisations and combined metrics as I could – but – given my lack of playing time at the moment and the developments in my Statman skin, I’m now able to do more in game. When looking to recruit, I tend to create a hierarchy of things that force my hand into decisions:

•  Watching the player play myself in competitive, open age, fixtures.
• Analyst report.
• Scout report within a modelled league.
• Watching a player play at youth level.
• Scout report within a non-modelled league.
• Historical stats from previous clubs and/or previous seasons.
•  Stats at youth level.

Whilst I trust my scouts’ judgement, I do feel that there is an element of realism in that I’d probably ask them to bring back comprehensive video footage of the players. Now, sometimes, when I send my scouts out, they aren’t able to/don’t bother to attend matches and, whilst they can get a nice overview of the attributes, I always like to settle down and watch five to ten games – usually in extended highlights – of their performances. I am not picky and like to try and get a mix of good and bad performances against a variety of tactical styles and oppositions. It’s a long, drawn-out process but really gives me an immersion into the player I’m signing. If I can’t get that, an analyst report is the next best because they’ve taken into account how the player is performing and identified any under/over achievement that I can ponder over. With my tendency to want to sign and develop younger players, I often find myself having to look at youth level to spot players who are doing well but are not quite ready for first team action. When all that fails, and when my recruitment pool is more limited – like this season given our promotion and lower reputation – I turn to previous season data from a save file I make at the end of each year.

I feel that this process stops me going overboard on unrealistic signings – a bunch of 15 year olds or 18 year old Ivorian’s playing in the (unloaded) Ivorian youth leagues and also streamlines the number of signings I make, given the labour intensive process.

With that in mind, I headed into the winter transfer break with a rough plan in mind of what I wanted and where I wanted it, below. As the 24.2 patch has now fixed the issue with a director or football not making the signings, I tasked him with sorting these out by creating groups per position, ranked both in order of need and in order of preference within each group. I was also able to split things down into a timeframe for the signings:

Immediate:

• Goalkeeper: I talked about Jonsson’s lack of command in the centre of his goal so ideally wanted a bigger, more commanding keeper with better reflexes than my current number one.
• Left winger: I wanted a flair player who was able to progress the ball into dangerous areas, either to shoot or lay off to a team mate and one who may also draw us fouls in dangerous areas.
• Defensive midfielder: A man who could step into Salaou’s shoes and win the ball back before progressing it.
• Centre back: A man who could step into Perez’s shoes and complete all defensive duties but also be able to help us play out from the back.

6-12 months:

• Stiker: With Damus and Mattson both untested at this level and Engblom no longer at the club, I could easily find myself lacking an actual goalscorer. I want to trust them but I need to be busy creating a list of alternatives for when, or if, the time and price is right.
• Centre Back: Captain Blomqvist is getting no younger and his lack of passing ability may grow to hamper us at a higher level. I'll be on the look out for right footed centre backs, or, should my left footed centre back search not be fruitful, continue that one.
• Left Back: With Team Leader Olsson not interested in renewing, I'm left with converted midfielder Andersson in this role. He could be great but he showed last year that he might not be. One certainly to watch.

12-18 months:

• Right Back: Forsberg was, on paper, the weakest performer and is tasked with quite a tough job in the IFB role. I want to tie him down a bit longer as he develops but do have some reservations.

Here is what I got:

    

Full profiles can be found by clicking on each thumbnail.

Marko fits the bill for my number one slot and the DoF was able to make quick work of the shortlist that I’d created for him in that area – considering he was the only name that was on it. He has significant experience at this level – playing for Trellborgs, Mjallby and Malmo before moving to HSV for €600k in 2021. He turned out a few times for HSV II last season but I was unable to watch any of these games so dipped into his time on loan at Halmstads, who finished fourth in the Allsvenskan. The data is encouraging – he’s able to keep clean sheets and is pretty tidy with the ball. My concern, as raised with Jonsson’s performance, is the ratio to saves held to saves parried, which sits around 2:7, compared to the 1:1 for my keeper. I’ve watched a number of the matches he appeared in and – honestly – don’t feel too worried given the shot types, compared to what we faced in the second tier. His reaction speed is great and, at 6’4”, he’s three inches taller than Jonsson, too. I put all my eggs into one basket though with this, risking the happiness of my ousted number one, moving him to ‘Backup’ before this move had even been finalised. Fortunately, he has not (yet) complained of this as he recovers from a broken hand but, whilst I’ve got myself a great new number one, am conscious of the wider impact on the team.

Muamer is a similar type of signing too Marko in that he came as a free transfer; however, unlike the keeper, had spent a significant amount of time on trial with us, performing strongly in reserve fixtures.  Another Swede who, as a youngster, moved abroad – firstly to Fulham and then to AZ, before scoring at more than a goal every three games for Hammarby. This preceded a move to AEK Athens and then of to Pafos, in Cyprus. His performances in the 2023/24 season left a bit to be desired but (in a non-realism sense) I was less worried as Cyprus is not a loaded league and it was pretty clear that his creativity, progression and outputs were strong. He was, again, an agent offer, but his flair and skill combined with a historically good finishing record convinced me to take the leap without watching him outside of our environment. However, when the five-time capped winger stepped into our tactical shape – albeit for the reserves – he was outstanding.  His traits really closely match the style that I want and the fact that he’s naturally inverted will only help the build-up down that side as I look to create a transitional overload on the right with the IFB, BWM and DC before an offensive overload on the left with the IF, VOL and AF. I placed him atop the list of wingers that I wanted and my DoF was able to secure the deal. At the time, his €1.2k p/w made him the highest earner but since then he has been usurped following some contract renewals.

Manasse is my favourite signing of the lot – coming in on a free from last-years divisional rivals, Osters. His output at the base of a three-man midfield was really interesting to me and I must have watched ten to fifteen of the games he appeared in. I watched him, time and time again, progress the ball to the midfielders ahead of him but it was the trait combination – Dwells on Ball and Likes to play out of trouble – that really did it for me. Osters were always quite an aggressive team, yet he was calm, collected and many, many times drew pressure from an opponent before moving the ball on – even against us. Yes, there were occasions when he gave the ball away from this but this alone was enough to make him the top target in my pursuit for a defensive midfielder. However, his role will be slightly different for us as part of a two-man pivot – so it was pleasing to see the contributions in terms of blocks, clearances and pressures that he attempted, too. He’s clearly not just a deep lying playmaker and will, in my eyes, excel as a 6 in my system – strengthening the area compared to Salaou.

The fourth many on the list is Robin Frej, a man who has been on my shortlist for what feels like an eternity. I took the chance to sign him as his contract at GAIS – another second-tier team – was coming to an end. I really wanted a left footed centre back but, unable to find any that fitted within our pricing range, settled for Robin and placed him atop a list of very average centre backs. The thing, attribute-wise, that sets him apart is his intelligence in game. Statistically, he is choosing the right moments to progress the ball forward, sitting inside the top five percent of all defenders in the top leagues of the game, which will be even more of an anomaly at the level we are at. Clearly a ball player, Robin will slot in on the left hand side of the two centre backs and I may look to add a trait, or – at minimum – player instructions, that will allow him to get the ball forward to bypass any potential press that we face. At 26, he has one year of experience in the top flight – at Brommapojkarna – so does pose a risk.

My recruitment, overall, feels really strong as we’ve upgraded areas that we are weak in. However, it has come at somewhat of a cost – noted when you see the squad status of my players, below.

 

In order to keep the current crop of players at the club, my hand was forced across many contract renewals as both myself and the DoF were only able to renew contracts with promises of ‘Important Player’ status. Whilst I’ve recruited arguably stronger players, they, too, have asked for similar statuses within the squad, very much leaving me with a strong XI and a much, much weaker XI. With little to nothing left in the kitty, I fear that any sort of injury could curtail our plans massively. That, however, is perfectly normal for a newly promoted team, in my eyes - especially one that hasn't chosen revolution by bringing in fifteen to twenty new players.

---

However, all didn't quite feel right through pre-season. Our training ratings were really poor as I reshuffled the backroom staff and things didn't quite click in the friendlies. I feel that, more than likely, there is a part of me looking for something given that these were the first games I'd played since the ME updates but I definitely think something is a little amiss. I've not broken the dynamics within the team nor changed anything drastic. As you can see from our performances, below, we didn't really get moving until the end of the season and luck meant that I was in the easier side of the draw for the last tournament:

We were handed a battering by champions Hammarby; expected but, maybe not quite to the extent that it turned out - amassing a grand total of three shots. I was, unfortunately, without both end-contract players, Musu and Frej, but soldiered on with the slightly smaller squad. That squad was then butchered in the Cypriot heat by Larnacas and, again, by Pafos as we struggled to a draw. We defeated Sirius - just relegated into the tier we left - before three easy games, although Brage - also of the second tier - had beaten Hacken, the large side, in the semi final to progress themselves. 

Nevertheless - I'm heading into the season with some positivity - hopeful to upset the apple cart and build something really wonderful here in Sundsvall!

 

[Hootieleece]

Wow, I rely on my scouts and analysts, but also mark I Eyeball of attributes and instinct as well.

Maybe I should be more thorough in recruiting and scouting like you.

 

[Chris_ANZFM]

Excellent as always man. With the detail you go into it’s almost as though I can visualise the processes you’re going through as your doing it. 

All the best for the season. 

[_Ben_]

On 02/12/2023 at 23:16, Hootieleece said:

Wow, I rely on my scouts and analysts, but also mark I Eyeball of attributes and instinct as well.

Maybe I should be more thorough in recruiting and scouting like you.

 

It's just how I do it! I think that, with how my skin has developed, it's become an extension of that.

On 04/12/2023 at 00:27, Chris_ANZFM said:

Excellent as always man. With the detail you go into it’s almost as though I can visualise the processes you’re going through as your doing it. 

All the best for the season. 

Thank you! Appreciate the continued kind words!

[Deisler26]

I think that I play the game in such a way, that staff just aren't good/weird enough to think like me.

[_Ben_]

A nice little bit of playing time means it's time for a bit of an update...

Our Svenska Cupen run was of similar length to last year as we faced off against two second tier teams – one of whom was promoted with us - and AIK, again, but, importantly, this time, we were also top tier. The starting game against a Varnamo team that beat us in the penultimate game of the league season was a strong message to our non-believers, before I created the perfect build up – a 4-2-5, as seen below, with Johansson actually involved in the backline. With AIK dropping points against Varnamo, I was able to seize the advantage. Analysing AIK’s squad, I saw a left hand side weakness in both assists and goals and looked to get in behind their very advanced wing backs, whilst still remaining tight and compact myself. The game was fairly even, actually, as we showed promise and less backs to the walls defending that saw us draw 1-1 in this fixture last season. Hammarby, however, were a step too far – just like Malmo the year before. No shame though for us and we looked ready for the season ahead.

---

 

One last signing before the window as Carlos rejoins on loan from Djurgårdens. His Swedish career started with us some eight years ago and he brings great experience to the team as well as strong outcomes from nearly 1,500 minutes last season in this division. Whilst still not the left footer I actually crave, his ability on the ball and lack of a really weak foot mean that he’ll probably play there. At 31, he’s not long, long term, but offers a sensible short-term option and comes with a €75k optional fee that, finances aside, I may look to take up if he does the job well. However, early signs are that he’ll have to adapt quickly as he failed to lead a very disorganised defence across the first few appearances.

---

 vs AIK | vs Varnamo | vs Norrkoping | vs Hammarby | vs Örgryte | vs Brommapojkarna | vs Mjallby | vs Malmo | vs Elfsborg | vs Kalmar FF |

The first ten fixtures as a top flight manager are done and we’ve got ourselves into a position that, I think, means we could be good enough to stay in this league for next season. We have cemented ourselves nicely into the middle of the pack and, given our financial structure and decreased reputation, I don’t foresee much movement from there – certainly not in the short term. There are some things that, from these games, I’ve really enjoyed and built upon, such as our our two-paced build up against Norrkoping, working the ball slowly around at the back before unleashing a quick and direct counter, demonstrating exactly the type of build up I want. However, it also uncovered the defensive frailties of a VOL(a). I presumed it was part of the role but I'd added close down more, by accident. Yaya has been a little more stable since but that can’t be said of our defensive shape against Mjallby, whereby we aren’t quite as compact as I want us to be. I think that my pressing style is slowly evolving though – finding more traps and triggers rather than just standing off and defending in a kind of disengaged style. Interestingly, a slightly different build up, with Kusu as a HB(d), allowing for a 3-2-5/3-3-4 shape against two forwards felt positive. It’s a shape I used in the first season and it’s one that I think I’ll need to revisit as our positional shift doesn’t seem to happen quick enough and last for long enough in the defensive phase to keep control of two strikers. I think that the biggest thing I’ve noticed so far this season is the squad quality – for example, against Elfsborg. Every single player is considered better than mine and that’s just something I have to deal with!

However, this is something that I feel I need to not just accept:

We’re joint bottom in goals conceded from corners and lose thirty-four aerial battles per game. I have little context for the last stat but that is nearly 200% of AIK’s amount, which, when you’re at a level where you do need to sweat the small stuff, matters to me. Looking at the aerial ability for my defenders continues to paint a worrying picture as does the graphic below, that shows we are just not strong enough in the air to stop the other teams dominating.

There's a lot to do but I must say that I am still absolutely loving this!

Edited December 9, 2023 by _Ben_

[SteinkelssonFM]

It certainly feels as if you have the ability to avoid any form of relegation battle. I would agree with your findings in terms of aerial duels, I often find when analysing the data, that winning the battle of the sky most certainly is linked to your team's ability to sustain pressure, and more importantly pick up those w's.

What is the plan behind fixing this issue? 

[_Ben_]

11 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

It certainly feels as if you have the ability to avoid any form of relegation battle. I would agree with your findings in terms of aerial duels, I often find when analysing the data, that winning the battle of the sky most certainly is linked to your team's ability to sustain pressure, and more importantly pick up those w's.

What is the plan behind fixing this issue? 

I've just broken things down a little bit more:

61% success is a pretty shocking thing to see, particularly when headers are taking up nearly 60% of his defensive actions. However, there are only six players at this level with over 300 minutes that have an 80% header win ratio and two are full backs (meaning that I've missed the easy 'player has won more than x headers'). I have just seen your post about creating some baselines and I think that I need to look at that myself although, given my playing style is somewhat different from many at this level and it's our first season here - this season might be the one I use to create this, rather than last.

There are some clear areas to look corroborate these stats with. I'll probably re-watch all highlights of the next five games that lead to crosses. Yes, we're not winning the ball from the crosses but I think that, if I can cut the source of the balls to the crosser, I can help alleviate that a bit. As I mentioned, I think that I need to consider that shift away from the outright 'do not press their defenders' approach!

[Lestri]

I wonder if the height is an issue as well here - I have found often in my FM24 save so far that, for corners in particularly, height comes up trumps. 

[Shrewnaldo]

How's your goalkeeper's Command of Area and Communication? Other than just a lag in familiarity with defensive set pieces, I often find that the goalkeeper's abilities in these areas impact on set piece stability.

 

[_Ben_]

9 hours ago, Lestri said:

I wonder if the height is an issue as well here - I have found often in my FM24 save so far that, for corners in particularly, height comes up trumps. 

Yeah - my go-to was always six foot for centre backs but I'm thinking that - maybe in Sweden alone - the strikers are quite tall! I'll keep tabs and do some analysis on the next few games to see what I can see.

8 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

How's your goalkeeper's Command of Area and Communication? Other than just a lag in familiarity with defensive set pieces, I often find that the goalkeeper's abilities in these areas impact on set piece stability.

 

Certainly considered decent for this level:

Again - I will take a look at how the moves are panning out, how he is organising and whether he is leaving some balls he should be collecting in the air.

[_Ben_]

aka – the one with the header investigation…

I had obviously dug into the statistics in the post above, looking at where we sat in the league and the specific issues I had within my team. Before going any further, I did want to just look at how that compared with the normal. Now, I’d normally look at real-life statistics and get a feel for this but, given the match engine and it’s changes, I felt that a comparative measure within the game would suffice for this one. The above chart shows some three hundred and fifty centre backs and their heading outputs with one big anomaly at the bottom – Alexander Blomqvist, my centre back. I tried to look at the comparisons between the top five European leagues, built, largely, around more technical football and our Allsvenskan, which, seemingly (for us anyway), is built around tall strikers who win headers against defenders. The median number of headers won sits at just under five per game but I am obviously left unable to distinguish between those that are offensive headers and those that are in the defensive thirds but, just at first site, it's clear to see hat there is an issue with my club - although only one of my players has reached the thousand minute milestone.

Yet, there appears to be more to it than that. Both Frej and Moros Gracia can win headers. A look at the charts below for their performance before playing for Sundsvall and after signing for us tell a tale of woe.

I simply cannot conceive how a player can come into the team, know the language, play a role that his attributes and his previous form would suggest he can do and then still record a forty percent drop off in header success. Granted, Gracia is 6’0” tall – shorter than I’d maybe want for a centre back – but he was brought in with the safety of some good defensive stats and the ability to utilise his strong ball playing ability. His interceptions - my preferred style of defending - have increased and he's held quite steady in most other areas, which is interesting considering his move from upper half Djurgårdens to ourselves, a team supposed to be doing more defending. His partner, Frej, moved up with us from the second tier and, like us, GAIS were a top side - which would therefore explain why he might be doing a similar amount. Yet - again, he isn't. There's more headers and there is, seemingly, a disproportionate amount too - he's facing nearly four times the amount of headers from the right centre back area that Gracia is from the left.

To me, this feels very tactical…

On paper, Filip Aberg, the young full back, has been the most promising player at the club but, when I'd make an assumption that at least 70% of crosses aren't aimed at the near post, it'd clearly suggest that they are coming from the left hand side - a statement that can nearly be corroborated by the above data - where I've matched up two goals down the left to two crosses and two of the three goals down the right to corners. Both need work!

To further develop these ideas, I want to dig deeper into the next few matches to try and find any nuggets of information I can work with, happy enough with our offensive patterns and ability to counter attack.

---

Each thumbnail, as always, can be clicked on to access a full match report.

e kicked the little spell of this update off with a draw against a strong Hacken team. It was really nice to watch another team that was utilising a similar style of build up to ourselves, also employed an IWB and IFB. This, however, did mean that they'd be utilising less wide overloads and, as such, maybe offering less crosses into the box. We ended with a draw in a strong performance against a side above us in the table; however, there were two headers that I felt it was important to analyse:

27^th minute: Soko vs Aberg:

Patrick Soko, who is 5’9” tall with a 59% header win ratio this season, against 5’7” Filip Aberg, who has won 32% of his headers this season.

The build up to this is far too easy for Hacken. They get 2v1 against Forsberg, the full back, and are able to cut inside him and float a ball into the box. The aim for the far post means that it is Aberg, the smallest member of the back four who has to deal with it and, as height might suggest, he struggles. I know that the graphics don't always represent things perfectly, but, visually, it appears that he does not at all check that Soko is there and - by the 0:05 second mark - he's static and in his position, allowing Soko the run and jump to make the height advantaged even more pronounced. With both centre backs and Hacken's forward already in the six yard box, I do not feel that this is the kind of ball that Johannsson should and would be going for.

66^th minute: Layouni vs Forsberg:

Amor Layouni, who is 6’3” with a 21% header win ratio this season, against 6’1” Lucas Forsberg, who has won 77% of his headers this season.

In my opinion, there is also far too little pressure on the winger here as he is able to drive to the byline and put the cross in, with only Aberg coming within five yards of him, albeit through a half-hearted attempt to win the ball back. Again, it goes towards the back post - an area where Forsberg has been strong this season - but he is outjumped by Layouni. Unlike last time, I feel that Forsberg has seen his man and just hasn't attempted to jump for it. I'd not expect the keeper to come and get this one either.

Overall, I think that there is a little issue with the 'show outside' as it means that I'm happy for the wide men to keep the ball. Whilst this may be a sensible option longer term, it's not going to stop me conceding crosses - even with the 'stop crosses' instruction selected - so a change is in order.

This feels somewhat typical of this season so far. A game in which we were pretty even and certainly never out of that has come down to one decision. Granath, their target man, won key headers everywhere on the pitch despite me trying to act upon the findings of the last game, pushing their wide men (in a 4-4-2 shape) inside and showing them all onto their inside foot.  Unlike the Hacken game, there was two wide men in each attack and, as you can see from the heat/pass map, they fanned out to create a front four when going forward that our two central midfielders and four defenders struggled with. The match was sealed by a decisive moment late in the game where I'd made a tactical change - bringing Martinsson on for Forsberg and moving Kusu to a HB(d) with the aforementioned sub moving to a WB(s) to try and give up an opportunity to exploit wider areas on the break.

87^th minute: Granath vs Martinsson:

Viktor Granath, who is 6’4” with a 38% header win ratio (still, at over 5.00 per game), against 5’11” Fredrik Martinsson, yet to win a header in his 57 minutes this season.

Unfortunately, Granath peeled off Blomqvist and was able to easily win the header against my much shorter full back, who, to his defence, is nowhere near ready for first team action at the moment. I do have to question how both Gracia and Aberg were unable to stop the ball in and how Blomqvist appeared to very easily be distracted, maybe ball watching, allowing the giant forward to get between the two defenders. I have watched a little bit earlier back in the move and feel that there may be an issue higher up the pitch. All of these three headers have come from crosses - yes - but the ball out to them in the first place has been too easy as there has been too little pressure on their central players. With two quite aggressive wide men - IF(a) and IW(s) - I've not got them to rely on tracking back so need to make that first ball a bit harder.

The easiest game of the three so far, although that's largely due to Halmstad's huge underperformance and we pick up the first three points of the header-analysis period. To try and alleviate errors of the last two games, I made some conservative changes: BWM(d) to a DM(d) and VOL(a) to VOL(s) to try and keep the defense covered more. It worked, kind of, except for the fact that it made our box shape rather ineffective. It's quite ironic that both of our goals came from crosses - both assisted by the impressive Paulson and finished by Carstrom, who my assistant later declared was better than Lionel Messi. Yeah. Our overall heading performance was much better - we funnelled them inside and, with more cover available there, stopped them being able to work an opening out wide where we are still down on numbers. Their goal, however, did come from a really nicely worked central overload - exactly what I'd forced them to do! Overall, Frej, playing with Blomqvist in the injury-absence of Gracia - recorded a 63% header win ratio, with Blomqvist - 72% - Forsberg - 100% - and Aberg - 100% (albeit from one header) - also showing an improvement.

I feel deep in the battle of defensive stability vs offensive fluidity!

I made a couple of tactical tweaks for the visit to Djurgardens: marking both posts at defensive corners and setting my wide forwards some specific marking targets. Overall, our shape was ok and we played really well but the box of IWB(S)-VOL(S)-DM(D)-AM(S) hasn't really worked again, and, actually, it was the positioning there that led to their goal. I think changing Aberg - who is above the 95th percentile for tackle attempts and tackle success as well as decent interception and block ratings, to an IWB(d) will not only benefit our attacking build up, bringing the whole team closer together, but also will reinforce a defensive area. Djurgarden's quick interplay caught the full back too high up the pitch and allowed Milleskog in to finish superbly. Aside from that though, things feel a little better: Blomqvist finished with 100% header success, as did Forsberg, whilst Frej's 66% (two from three) is still better that entry to this period. Aberg was the concern initially, with only a 25% success rate, but one came from a corner - which I'll be able to check his marking instructions on - one was a through ball and one was this occurrence, where, again, the cross comes into the back post and he simply doesn't jump. In addition to the fact that my coaches do not necessarily believe he is good enough, yet, I do worry about the Jumping Reach and Heading - knowing that, sadly, his intelligence can't always bail him out!

After Gracia agreed to work on his heading, we lined up with the intent of getting a little more height at the back, playing three centre backs in the four and moving Forsberg to the left, utilising his 'Stays Back at all times' trait to solidify a bit more. The game was dire, to put it bluntly, but sprang into life when we scored in the eighty-ninth minute. There was, of course, late heartbreak as Vargas scored a debut goal from inside the six yard box as Goteborg piled men forward at the end. However, all things considered, this is a decent draw against a team of a similar stature to us. My focus on heading feels like it's reaching a natural conclusion: Frej - 75%, Blomqvist - 75%, Gracia - 66%, Forsberg - 100% tells me that we're on the upward trend from when I started this investigation.

That leaves the table at the halfway stage looking like so:

To be honest - this is about as well as I could have hoped for. We're not a great team and we're almost certainly lacking in fire power up front. My aim, when promoted, was to make us hard to beat and I think I've done that. Five league defeats is as good as the other mid table teams around us sixteen goals conceded is also really strong - albeit if it's caused me an issue with the type of goal.

----

I have also used this time to make three dips into the transfer market...

WOW!

Emil returns to the club he started it all at and, if I'm not mistaken, he's probably the best ever player to have played here. The club lists his father, Leif, as a club legend and this man as an icon and I am delighted to welcome him back. Out of contract at Leipzig but still on the periphery of the Swedish national team, I feel that this - for the first time for me - is really where the game has shown that he loves the club and wants to end his career here. With Bengtsson injured again and with the worst injury history I've ever seen - he is certainly going to fill a gap. He'll slot nicely into the left sided role but I may have to change the ball carrier necessity of that as his legs, after a bit of an injury hit season or two, may not last forever. My highest earner on just under €2k per week - again, a huge drop from the wage he was on at Leipzig - I think he'll be superb in feeding my new striker...

Next in is Saidou Bah, after a successful trial period. He's not quite Adama Traoare but, when I watched back some Barcelona B games, the way he moves with the ball is something special. He's going to need some refining but - as I look to cement myself as a team that builds up slowly, at first, then ignites into chaos, he could just be the man. Granted, his outputs haven't been fantastic, but then against Barcelona B and Badajoz - where he spent the year before on loan (scoring four in twenty-eight games) aren't going to be playing the same brand of football as I intend to.

Roger joins from Hammarby's youth club in the third tier, where he's been really successful. Initially, he wasn't brought in for the first team but I'll look to give him a chance given our striker woes of late.

---

Fifteen games to make something of our season! Let's do this!!

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by _Ben_

[Rikulec]

What a great move to bring Forsberg back!

[SteinkelssonFM]

Loving the deep dive into the defensive (aerial) frailties. I simply cannot believe how poor Blomkvist is performing, it also feels as if you have an imbalance somewhere in your tactic if one defender is winning a significantly larger volume of headers than his CB partner.

*Note to self, check back on my figures and report back. 

Is there a difference in their profiles, is Frej the more aggressive of the two, maybe with a stronger mental profile to read the game? 

As always, keen to read the next update and find out more. 

[_Ben_]

1 hour ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Loving the deep dive into the defensive (aerial) frailties. I simply cannot believe how poor Blomkvist is performing, it also feels as if you have an imbalance somewhere in your tactic if one defender is winning a significantly larger volume of headers than his CB partner.

*Note to self, check back on my figures and report back. 

Is there a difference in their profiles, is Frej the more aggressive of the two, maybe with a stronger mental profile to read the game? 

As always, keen to read the next update and find out more. 

Now you've opened a can of worms!

So, here we go. Disregarding who was playing there, here is the left centre back vs right centre back comparison:

 This is a pretty shocking graphic, actually!

To see a professional centre back lose every single one of his aerial battles is a real kick in the teeth and really makes me think about whether my tactical idea has been brought on too soon and, maybe, we just need to stick to the basics. However, I am a little pleased that this has gone up over the past five games - those that I purposely made changes for, based on my previous findings. Below is how I lined up for the last couple of games - aiming to make a defensive double pivot with an IWB(d) and DM(d) in transition with three centre-backs behind him after Forsberg tucks in. Moving the VOL(a) back to a VOL(s) and removing the roaming BWM(d) means that I have created more of a cushion in front of the defence, but, at the same time, that then means the ball gets funnelled wide more often. When you compare our goals against positions from both the last fifteen and last ten, you'll see that we conceded four from corners. Since then, we've only conceded two from crosses - and, in the last five, three from through balls - meaning this has now shifted the problem elsewhere! Ideally, I'd like to move back to, at least, a VOL(a) so that I can better progress the ball in transition.

Here are Blomqvist's, Gracia's, Frej's and Lungdren's attributes, respectively. Clicking on each one takes you to their profile with key attributes for centre back roles.

   

Lundgren, despite being the weakest of them all, is the best in the air but I am loathed to not play Blomqvist as he has the best positioning and second best aerial ability. I've clearly brought Gracia in for his ball laying ability as his Ball Control and Passing are far superior to everyone else, but I'd argue that his defensive attributes - jumping aside - are not that bad. For this level, my defence isn't that weak - although we have the second worst jumping and thirteenth best heading (overall - we have the worst heading, aggression and bravery) so I think I can, to some extent, coach it out of these players.

Thank you for allowing me to dig a little deeper!

[Shrewnaldo]

Have you looked into whether the disparity is created by set pieces? It's interesting how often the centre back which has higher nominal numbers of attempted headers is the more successful in that game. Perhaps because that one is taking up a zonal near post position at defensive corners and winning more uncontested? Or attacking ones in a similar vein?

... And now I've seen that I've completely missed the one with the header investigation... Will have to go back and read that 

 

[_Ben_]

5 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Have you looked into whether the disparity is created by set pieces? It's interesting how often the centre back which has higher nominal numbers of attempted headers is the more successful in that game. Perhaps because that one is taking up a zonal near post position at defensive corners and winning more uncontested? Or attacking ones in a similar vein?

... And now I've seen that I've completely missed the one with the header investigation... Will have to go back and read that 

 

So, I read the first question and got myself another idea...

Attacking set pieces. They are shocking:

That's another issue to deal with! However, it did get me thinking about the header success being significantly skewed when we are attacking and bringing down the overall figures. In the three games I've played since last updating, I dug deeper and found this:

So, whilst Gracia's performance against AIK was very poor - he received a 7.1 rating for completing 81 of his 82 passes and, clearly, heading makes little to no difference in that - he actually didn't lose three headers in the box, which would worry me a bit more. Against Norrkoping, our game plan seemed to work nicely - with us not actually losing any headers, as centre backs.

Once again, there's so many layers to this investigation. I could, quite easily, go out and buy new players but I've always found great joy in developing the ones I have here. That may mean in terms of their attributes or just, in this case - with older players - developing them tactically to fit my needs.

[_Ben_]

I’ve been giving our playing style a lot of thought lately - scribbling ideas down on paper, playing with tactical boards like the ones you can see below and consuming as much formation based content as I can. I've learnt a lot but my main takeaway and the hipster thing at the moment is that formations don't really exist, and I should just be looking at defensive, offensive and transitional shapes. Whilst this is somewhat in jest, it does hold firm in that fact that there are so many factors that have implications on how or why we are doing the things that we are and I can't just assume that one playing style or one instruction fits all. I know that, in this regard, the FM engine is somewhat limited as things like familiarity are significant within the match engine - when, in real life, we'd drill and drill and drill these but, here, I just must accept that there will be a slight drop off in effectiveness if too much has changed in and between games with my setups. I think my deep dive is partly due to some defensive woes but also due to the fact that, whilst we have a squad that is not the strongest at this level, there’s been a bit of a departure from my playing style in order to just do enough. Now, I’m not tough enough to die on my hill of beautiful, free flowing football at all costs, but we’ve become something of nothing really – far too easy to score against and somewhat subdued in our offensive play.

Up until this iteration of FM, I’ve been reluctant to play a natural double pivot because of the space that it affords in the central areas and I think that I’m really seeing this two-fold this year. Firstly, teams are able to build up through us and, even when I managed to shut down the wide corridors, they were able to play through balls between the defenders and, secondly, because it doesn’t quite align with my counter attacking principles. With four players almost always ahead of the ball, I’m building, essentially, through the three-two shape – perfect, but, at the same time, not ideal when all my most creative players are ahead of it.

I’d actually like to keep the natural double pivot (and I use the term natural because I can make one through using an IWB as opposed to two defensive midfielders) and it features in two thirds of the tactics that I think I’m going to lay down as the kind of base shapes. For me, what is important is consistency, where possible, with roles and with instructions – I’d never go for one tiki taka tactic and one long ball tactic, nor would a midfield duo of destroyers make up one shape and another one has two technical playmakers: I simply do not have the rounded personnel to achieve this. Therefore, I’ve drawn up three new shapes, all of which still build of the positional principle of a 3-box-3 and all of which will, hopefully, allow me to return – slightly – to the more fluid attacking style whilst keeping tighter defensively.

  

Each image leads to an in-game screenshot of the formation, at this point in my development.

Overall, I think that these shapes will help us stick to our core principles better. We will always be able to build up from the back with as there will be a spare man against any shape that isn't a flat three (and I don't think the AI can use that) or a really aggressive 433 or 4231 shape where their forwards and/or attacking midfielder occupy our three defenders. If that is the case, it'll open up holes behind them for us to play through. Therefore, I don't want to use the Play out of defence instruction as that'll slow our counter attacking as it (to quote) encourages defenders to pass their way out from the back rather than look to clear it long. I don't want long ball, but I do want vertical, fast paced football when the opportunity arises. Additionally, I think that the use of BPD(d) and (c) may further help with the development of playing out from the back without officially playing out from the back!

With roles such as IF(a) and IW(s) as well as CM(a) and BBM(s), I will already be encouraging players to dribble but I want to really emphasise that with fast, tricky players in the majority of these roles adding traits to further encourage progressive ball carriers, so this forms part of the DNA - an inbuilt team instruction that remains whatever shape we are playing and, unless we are trying to see out a game, for the entirety of the ninety minutes. The run at defence instruction is the only 'In Possession' instruction that remains for the team as I have made the decision to remove the higher tempo from our game. I believe that our low shot xG and rushed chances come from this and, with the roles we have anyway (disregarding the mentality entirely at this point), our movement is already quite fast, plus, this may actually help slow the pace down and draw the press when we are in our early stages of transition.

Whilst, to some, it may feel that I'm being tactically inflexible - putting all my eggs into one style of attacking, I think that there is significant difference between a CM(a)/BBM(s) combo and a VOL(a)/F9(s) combo atop the box in the middle. It also makes sense to attack in quite a similar way when, at this level, I'm not exactly blessed with well-rounded players who can perform multiple roles and styles.

That means that my transition and out of possession styles become a lot more opposition dependent. For my next game, I've set up in a certain way, as seen below, but these are likely to change depending on scenarios. I'll change to longer kicks if I feel unconfident at evading an attacking press and I'll easily change up the speed of distribution from the keeper as and when is necessary. I tend to use regroup but it's not a given, as, against teams with a poor first touch and anticipation, I may choose to counter when the ball is turned over, hoping to further build on my overarching style. I am, however, conscious that this approach is more risky and wouldn't want to leave it on for all games as it'll leave our defence more open. Out of possession, the use of a mid block is another that is common but absolutely not set in stone. It's unlikely that I'll deviate to a low block, given my woes with aerial battles, and that they'd then be even closer to our goal but a high block may come in of use when I'm not overly worried about pace or long balls in behind. The decision to trap inside or outside and whether I (attempt to) stop crosses or not is often based on opponent strengths as I feel that this is somewhere where I can pre-empt as opposed to react during the game.

 

---

So, how has it worked?

Pretty well!

The table has us as the form team and all but safe from relegation now. I do not think we have enough left in the tank to push any higher than we are now, really, but the turnaround has been nothing short of fantastic. Yes, we've conceded seven goals in the last five games - back to the same ways of crosses and corners with five headers in that time, too. I must say that confidence is wearing out with Gracia, who still cannot achieve a header win ratio anywhere near what Frej and Blomqvist are doing - which puts that spot up for grabs in the summer. Despite the the tactical changes, I am confident that I can use this season to create some really strong benchmarks for performance across the roles within the overarching style that we play in order to go into the summer prepared and ready to build on this. But, before that, there's still eight games to go!

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by _Ben_