[FM23] Passing the IJ Test

[Shrewnaldo]

Some of you may recall my FM22 save with Bristol City (Statman and Robins), where I used a "restricted attributes" skin in an effort to remove the crutch of numeric attributes and force me to use in-game statistics. Whilst I enjoyed the save, it eventually fell foul of the (FM) "English disease" - once we were established in the Premier League, the money becomes a cheat code and it's just not fun anymore. So whilst I stopped that save after finishing 2nd in the Prem, the way of playing has certainly stuck with me and informed my search for a club to start my FM23 journey with.

Eventually, I decided on SC Telstar in the Dutch second tier. Why? Well partly because they are at a level which I traditionally enjoy - a weak side in a second-tier European league, with no history whatsoever. Indeed, it's difficult to find a weaker side in the vanilla Dutch leagues - with only Helmond, finishing 20th in 3 of the last 4 seasons, having a justifiable claim at being worse. 

But doing a little bit of research into the available clubs really sold me on Telstar. They were the first club in the Netherlands to wear a rainbow shirt to support Coming Out Day and, as you can see from the shirts above, have continued that tradition - a shirt which I have now promoted to permanent first-choice. The club's website also provides a lot of the usual PR-friendly stuff about their purpose and values, but they seem to walk that talk.

And lastly, there is a little bit of narrative around the club's "1963 policy" for short-term development. In 2026, the club will be 63 years old - having been formed in 1963 - and the club has stated its ambition to return to the Eredivisie in a new or refurbished stadium with at least 6000 capacity to celebrate that milestone.

Enter Naldo Spitsmuis...

As you can see, I made the kits in 3d too. And I plan to improve my sartorial elegance as we move up in the world.

Game style

A little reminder, or intro for those of you who didn't read the Statman and Robins save. What do I mean by "restricted attributes" skin. Well something like this:

The numerical attributes are replaced throughout the entire game by stars, which are coloured in four grades according to the skin settings - which I've made:

• Poor attributes are           - Dark Grey: <8
• Average attributes are     - Bronze: 8-11
• Good attributes are          - Silver: 12-16
• Elite attributes are            - Gold: 17+

Credit to Sebastian who made the star skin on FM22, and gave me permission to merge it with Rensie's skin last year. My feeble attempts at re-creating the skin for 23 are so far holding up. I wish I had Ben's skill at creating amazing stuff like Statman, but I absolutely do not.

I know that others are playing with no attributes whatsoever, but that's a little too far for me - both in terms of realism and just personal preference. This kind of restricted view worked out really well for me in the Bristol City save - pushing me away from just looking at very precise attribute numbers and having to use the in-game statistics to do all sorts of fact-finding. Tactical analysis, squad assessment and, primarily, recruitment are all informed by statistical analysis and the opinions of my staff. Adding this to my usual restrictions like disabling the first transfer window, not using the Player Search screen, only appointing staff through the job centre, etc seems to be the right balance for me between realism and remembering that games are supposed to be fun.

What to expect

What should you, dear reader, expect from this thread? I would imagine more of the same from the Statman and Robins thread. A few game updates throughout each season but more a focus on problem solving and death by statistics as I try to find (or steal from someone else) new or interesting ways to combine the statistics, or interpret the statistics. I tend to use these threads for the same reason I used to write blogs. First I enjoy doing it, which seems like the bare minimum starting point.  Secondly, I use posts to articulate my thoughts on specific problems, dilemmas or decisions that I face throughout the save; and then try to work out a solution. As I say to my kids all the time, if you can't explain something clearly and succinctly, and use evidence to support your view, then you either don't understand it, or you're wrong.

Hence the double-meaning in the title of the thread - we all have prejudices and biases in the game. I try to use stats to get behind my own personal biases - do the numbers support what I think is happening? Are the players actually producing the output I think they are? Are my assumptions passing the eye test / IJ test? See what I did there... Telstar being based in IJmuiden... sorry, weak I know.

But that brings me to one final point. IJmuiden is a major port at the head of the North Sea shipping canal to Amsterdam. Indeed, IJmuiden literally means "mouth of the IJ". As such, it's an entry point into the Netherlands, or at least North Holland, and from there Europe. I'm going to treat it as such for the purposes of this FM "career". Inspired by the likes of Ben and SixPointer and so many others, I'd like to become less attached to one-club saves. I have targets with Telstar but I'd like those to be the starting point of a realistic management career that takes me to other leagues and nations. To help keep the gameworld both unique and realistic, I've loaded a whole bunch of nations so that their results, squad building and development are all simulated as properly as possible.

Along with all top club players from Africa and South America, that makes 97,610 players in the starting database. So plenty of competition for signings and plenty to scout, and hopefully plenty of interesting options when I decide to move on.

But for now, it's very much time to concentrate on Telstar. There's an awful lot of work to do.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Shrewnaldo

[danielgear]

“English disease” I hate England in FM. 

Looking forward to this one Shrew. Best of luck. 

 

[F0rzaH]

Nice choice of club! I'll be following.

[FMStag]

Looking forward to this as always.

[SteinkelssonFM]

Looking forward to this one mate, especially if you manage to get in a similar groove as last season with Bristol City. 

[Shrewnaldo]

Thanks all, much appreciated. Particularly as I regularly steal ideas from you all :-D

[Deisler26]

Interesting! I'll keep an eye on this one

[Shrewnaldo]

Baseline

A quick introduction to the club. As I mentioned in the opening post, Telstar were formed in 1963 and I reckon must be the only professional football club named after a telecommunications satellite - as an interesting aside, the team come on to the pitch accompanied by the Tornadoes' song named after the same satellite.

They are very much one of the Netherlands' lesser lights and have never won a trophy although VSV, who merged with Stormvogels to form the professional club, did win the KNVB Cup in 1938, Telstar haven't been in the Eredivisie since 1978, the last of 14 seasons in the country's top-tier with a 6th-placed finish in 1974 the club's pinnacle to-date. 

And whilst the club has plans to expand the current facilities or build a new stadium, the 3600 capacity BUKO Stadion is the league's smallest - ignoring the training grounds used by the Ajax, PSV, AZ and Utrecht B teams. The inclusion of those B teams isn't the league's only oddity with what I believe is a unique play-off system. The league's 20 teams play each other twice and the top two teams across those 38 games are promoted to the Eredivisie. So far, so normal. The next two best teams across the 38-match season go into a playoff system along with the team that finished 16th in the Eredivsie and the winners of four 'periods' across the season. The first 9 matches are treated as 'period 1', the next ten as 'period 2', then 9 for 'period 3' and the final 10 for 'period 4'. Across each of those periods, the highest performing team that hasn't already qualified for the playoffs joins the others in the knock-out tournament. Got that?

I doubt Telstar will have to concern ourselves with the playoff complexities for a couple of seasons at least. We are quite some way off the rest of the league in terms of quality. Using the squad comparison tables in the Squad Planner, the only attribute at which we exceed the league's average is Aggression. For 6 of the 14 technical attributes, we have the lowest average. So big yikes.

With the opening transfer window disabled, we can't bring in any stronger players but, to be honest, we couldn't afford to anyway - just a quarter of a million in the bank and maxing out our wage budget. That latter could be a real issue as we have no fewer than 24 players on contracts which expire at the end of the season. So it seems like job one is finding out which players we want to prioritise for new contracts.

With the restricted attributes, then my initial starting point is the staff feedback and they have a few players that they rate as the club's strongest, but without any clear standout stars. A host of friendlies were scheduled to give me an initial impression of the players at my disposal, and get a feel for the 23 engine.

I went with a conservative, counter-attacking approach to emulate what I anticipate needing for most of the season and started off with a back 3 / 5 and a double screening pivot. That left us with just 3 attacking players and I just couldn't get a counter game going in the way that I wanted. The 9 was too isolated and the two players behind him, whether as 10s or out wide, were dragged too deep in the defensive phase to offer any sort of support on the break. I felt like I needed an extra body further forward and, helped by my natural aversion to 3CB system, we've reverted to a shape that I've used in the Netherlands before.

I don't plan to go into any tactical details at the moment but I will say that I'm planning to be a lot more detailed and reactive in my opposition analysis this year. Like a lot of FMers, once I settle on a tactic, it tends to just get plugged in regardless of the opposition - maybe with a few mentality tweaks every now and again. I'm hoping the "improved AI management" provides some additional challenge to experienced players, but I'd also like to try and use statistics more to spot potential vulnerabilities in the opposition. To use a crude example - were we playing Liverpool then it doesn't take a genius to know that you need to target their right-back area. So I'd perhaps amend my tactic to overload my left, or overload the right and try to isolate my winger 1-on-1 with their weakest defender.

You get the idea - stick to principles but be flexible in an effort to exploit opposition weakness. And more on those principles another time.

If you're wondering about youth development - there won't be any. Telstar IRL are keen to develop youth facilities and homegrown products as part of their new strategy but I'll be deviating from that and concentrating very much on a first-team only approach. In game, there is no under-18 team for Telstar and hence no staff to get rid of. I won't even be bothering with a Head of Youth Development, and with the facilities either adequate or average the likelihood of any wonderkids arriving is pretty slim. Should something unexpected occur, then at this stage they'll likely be good enough for immediate first-team football anyway.

And that, in a nutshell, is what we have to work with. Season one is all about fact-finding - about the players at my disposal, about the match engine for 23 and starting off that recruitment system. The Eerste Divisie 'periods' seems to be a decent way to break up the season, so it makes sense to report back on initial thoughts in about 9 matches time.

[_Ben_]

Yes! This means you've got something working and got that bug back! Looking forward to this.

[Guimy]

I was certain you were going to reference their rather snarky Twitter presence as another reason for picking the White Lions.

[Shrewnaldo]

22 minutes ago, Guimy said:

I was certain you were going to reference their rather snarky Twitter presence as another reason for picking the White Lions.

Not speaking / reading Dutch, it seems I'm missing out on that particular delight. I translate some of their tweets but it's mostly match updates or marketing links. Do they have a reputation for irreverent tweeting? 

[Matty Aqua]

Nice write up!, Your kicking off the save in the Beta?

[_Ben_]

1 hour ago, Guimy said:

I was certain you were going to reference their rather snarky Twitter presence as another reason for picking the White Lions.

Considering both you and Shrew are here - I thought you may have been announcing the re-introduction of one of The Dugout's moderators...

[Shrewnaldo]

1 hour ago, Matty Aqua said:

Nice write up!, Your kicking off the save in the Beta?

Yeah, just got bored waiting. Hopefully nothing gets identified which needs a new save to fix

32 minutes ago, _Ben_ said:

Considering both you and Shrew are here - I thought you may have been announcing the re-introduction of one of The Dugout's moderators...

I totally did not put 2 and 2 together there. Didn't realise that was Guido. Bit slow on Sunday mornings

[Tommo_]

Good luck with this Shrew! 

[tjt65]

Buzzin for this one Shrew. Hope it goes the distance.

[Shrewnaldo]

18 hours ago, Tommo_ said:

Good luck with this Shrew! 

 

12 hours ago, tjt65 said:

Buzzin for this one Shrew. Hope it goes the distance.

Thanks both, enjoying it so far

[Shrewnaldo]

Draw your own conclusions

Having completed the first 'period' in the Eerste Divisie, it feels like an apt time to reflect on what I've learned so far, and there are some positives for sure as we're yet to taste defeat in my nascent managerial career. That's right - lowly Telstar are one of only two unbeaten teams over the first nine matches. Unfortunately, that's not the whole story.

Seven draws, bookmarked by convincing wins over the Ajax and Utrecht reserve teams has provided a rather bizarre opening to our first campaign. I'll be honest, after the opening win I was a more than a little concerned that it was going to be far too easy, so I'm quite pleased by the subsequent deterioration in form, if not results. As you can see from the graph below, we were lucky in a number of those draws - not so concerning against table toppers Heracles but VVV are in 12th and Almere were bottom at the time, yet both should have run out comfortable winners.

Most of our problems have been of our own making - 3 of the 8 goals we've conceded to date have been 'assisted' by defensive mistakes, and only the form of our 'keeper has prevented that number being much higher. We have become very susceptible to a high press, particularly at left back - most notably in the Almere game when I subbed Delvechio Blackson after 8 minutes, during which time he'd been booked, was directly at fault for our rivals' opener and very nearly gifted the opposition another in the exact same manner. And then one of our holding midfielders gifted them a second with a shockingly misplaced pass 25 minutes later.

I've typically stuck with the 4-3-3, using two screening DMs to allow the fullbacks to bomb on and provide us with width. The only exception to this was the VVV game where, knowing they'd play a diamond, I wanted to match their 4 in the middle and provide an extra man at the back - so switched to a back 3 / 5. Unfortunately, 'mistakes' are absent from the analytical screens, match stats and player stats so I can't check or confirm my 'eye test' that we just made mistake after mistake through the middle and, as you can see from the xG chart, were incredibly lucky to escape with a point.

As a brief aside, I really like the inclusion of the new statistics but by god is it frustrating that SI haven't included Progressive Passes or Pressures, for example, in the analytical screens. I want to see these events - see what they mean in FM, see how the game interprets them, see how players react to the events. I just feel like this is, as with a lot of new 'features' in FM these days, a half-way house that leaves you constantly underwhelmed by what should be solid additions.

At the other end of the pitch, we've been ok. We're over-performing our xG by quite a considerable margin (+5.57), but we're pretty much slap bang in mid-table for most of the creativity metrics - shots for, shots on target, chances created, conversion rate. One metric I'm very keen to keep an eye on is xG / shot - i.e. what quality of chances are we creating? My gut feel, and comparison with real life, is that we should be aiming for about 0.10-0.12 xG/shot as an acceptable level. In the 9 games to date, we've taken 94 shots and amassed 8.43xG, so 0.09 xG/shot.

So concerns at both ends of the pitch really, despite the unbeaten start and sitting in 8th, way above our pre-season prediction. I do feel, though, that I have a better grasp on the squad and the players I'd like to build around.

Veteran striker Plet has really come up with the goods, leading our scoring charts with a creditable 5; whilst Greek winger Giousis has been consistently excellent, to the point where I'm considering bringing him into a 10 role to get him on the ball more often. And whilst our defence hasn't been great, Oude Kotte has been very good at the more proactive elements of defending - pressures and interceptions - whilst having a concerningly low 50% tackle success ratio.

One area of the game where I'm having initial struggles is scouting. I quite like the Recruitment Focus method, but it really doesn't fit in with my Monchi-esque scheme of mass data gathering pre-xmas and then targetting scouting in the new year. The focuses seem to be finished very quickly, and gather only a handful of players. I'd like to see the full list and it seems the only way I can do that is by catching the 'in progress' options before they are filtered by the game. I see why it's been done this way - to provide filtered information to FMers who want their scouts to do all the work for them - but I'd much rather see ALL the data, ALL the time. To the point where I'm considering moving back to using the Player Search screen and using statistics filters to do it all myself. Food for thought.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Shrewnaldo

[SteinkelssonFM]

The xG Against taking a rapid spike as you progress through those initial fixtures. I know you have pinpointed 'mistakes' as the mean trigger point for those chances, has your GK been making great saves or is the finishing not been clinical from the opposition as from the data I would have predicted at least one defeat. 

I am also frustrated that the in game data doesn't cover progressive passes/pressures within the analytics screens as this is one area which I was really excited about.

You did put a smile on my face with the mention of a 'Monchi' recruitment focus...where have you positioned the scouts for the initial phase? 

How are you finding this edition? 

[Dereka]

I do think you've had to play arguably 5 out of the 6 strongest side in the division in your first nine games, so I'd say you have a good return so far.

In real life, there's always some discussion about Ajax, PSV, Utrecht and AZ reserve team featuring first team players to keep up their fitness levels, which one could argue is a bit unfair as you never know how strong a team you're going to face. Do you see the same in FM, or do their first team players not feature?

[Shrewnaldo]

6 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

The xG Against taking a rapid spike as you progress through those initial fixtures. I know you have pinpointed 'mistakes' as the mean trigger point for those chances, has your GK been making great saves or is the finishing not been clinical from the opposition as from the data I would have predicted at least one defeat. 

I am also frustrated that the in game data doesn't cover progressive passes/pressures within the analytics screens as this is one area which I was really excited about.

You did put a smile on my face with the mention of a 'Monchi' recruitment focus...where have you positioned the scouts for the initial phase? 

How are you finding this edition? 

It's been a little bit of both - my 'keeper has been pretty good but I can think of two examples of glaring misses.

At the moment, my scouting range is Dutch leagues only and I only have three scouts anyway so it's not so much the range that's the issue. I just wanted to send them out and get a couple of hundred C+ players to stick into a list, and then filter down for the post-xmas focused scouting.

My view on 23 is that it's pretty much a polished 22. Which is perfectly fine. The ME seems really solid, with a bit more variety in both looks and playable options. Solid but really lacking in any sort of 'hook' if you weren't already convinced to buy it.

6 hours ago, Dereka said:

I do think you've had to play arguably 5 out of the 6 strongest side in the division in your first nine games, so I'd say you have a good return so far.

In real life, there's always some discussion about Ajax, PSV, Utrecht and AZ reserve team featuring first team players to keep up their fitness levels, which one could argue is a bit unfair as you never know how strong a team you're going to face. Do you see the same in FM, or do their first team players not feature?

I recognised a few names from the youth teams, but only the prospects rather than first-team players getting game time. The likes of Kik Pierie, for example.

And thanks! My form has continued to pick up, even though we've had one loss, into the second period so hopefully it will continue like that.

[Guimy]

On 30/10/2022 at 12:20, Shrewnaldo said:

Not speaking / reading Dutch, it seems I'm missing out on that particular delight. I translate some of their tweets but it's mostly match updates or marketing links. Do they have a reputation for irreverent tweeting? 

https://www.thebestsocial.media/nl/15-rake-tweets-cultclub-sc-telstar/

Looks like they got a new social media manager. The old one did it better.

On 30/10/2022 at 13:39, _Ben_ said:

Considering both you and Shrew are here - I thought you may have been announcing the re-introduction of one of The Dugout's moderators...

What exactly will we be moderating?

Edited November 2, 2022 by Guimy

[Shrewnaldo]

On 02/11/2022 at 05:29, Guimy said:

https://www.thebestsocial.media/nl/15-rake-tweets-cultclub-sc-telstar/

Looks like they got a new social media manager. The old one did it better.

I wonder if the old social media manager runs the fan account that I follow - that tends to post rather irreverent, comedic material

[Shrewnaldo]

Fewer draws, more defeats

Having completed the second period of 10 games in our debut Eerste Divisie season, we appear to have gone backwards a little.

Compared to the first period, we managed to win twice more but lost four games to spoil our previously unbeaten run. Win period 2 having one more game than period 1, we scored the same number of goals (14) but conceded 3 more, but looking at the xG trend over the two period (yellow line splitting the two), it feels like we've tightened up at the back a little whilst getting away with it a little bit less.

 

The xG for has also improved markedly, largely precipitated by a switch to a more traditional 4-3-3 with a single DM and two in the MC line. This allowed us to get an extra central runner forward, offset by making our right-back slightly more conservative and switching the AMR to a standard winger - something which suits Yaël Liesdek much better and is clearly shown in his output per role.

This screen, by the way, is just so incredibly, super useful but hidden away under Tactics > Player > Select your tactic > Highlight the position in the pitch graphic > Highlight the player in the list below the pitch graphic > Bottom right shows the output per role. With the exception of the intermittently bugged Average Rating, it works well.

Whilst the 4-3-3 has been pretty effective, there's a pretty big part of me that just doesn't want to use it. 4-3-3 (DM, 2MCs, AML, AMR, ST - not 3 strikers, I'm not a monster) has been my go-to tactic for many, many years now - partly because it suits how I like football to be played, but also because I feel like the game pushes me towards using it. But it's got to the point where it's just very boring and I want to do something different. Yet whenever I do try something different, it feels less effective than I know the 4-3-3 can be. Whilst a lot of this will be down to the natural ennui from playing the same game for 30 years, at times it feels like part of the blame lies with FM and how restrictive the tactics engine is. There just doesn't feel like much scope for variation, nevermind innovation.

So I have a decision to make - whether just to stick with 4-3-3 and accept that the tactical side of the game isn't going to hold much interest for me anymore; or keep trying to find something different and then inevitably come back to the 4-3-3 in season 3. For this season, we're not going up and the entire campaign is now a 'free hit' - I can't see us struggling to the extent that my job will be at risk so why not take the opportunity to experiment and see if I'm wrong about FM23 and there actually is greater scope for variety than I think?

So having gone deep 4-2-3-1 for period 1, and 4-3-3 for period 2, I'm going to switch up to a 3-4-3 or similar for period 3, and perhaps something totally bizarre in period 4. Yet it's a balancing act - because whilst something like a 3 striker system, or 0 striker system, or something with offset players, or assymetric positions might end up working well, the fact that the AI doesn't use such systems leads me to believe that the AI also doesn't know how to react to such systems... which brings me right back to a dilemma between wishing that variation was more possible, whilst holding myself back from variation options that might exist but are (borderline) exploitative.

Game World Update

One thing I'd like to do with this save is still more informed of what is going on in the wider game world - hopefully introducing some immersion and a unique experience. Of course, in FM23, the first relevant world event will be World Cup 2022 in Qatar, where the following happened:

• A couple of early shocks in the groups as the US and, even more surprisingly, Argentina and Lionel Messi went out
• The knockouts had some massive games with Belgium beating Germany in the 2nd Round, France beating England and Spain beating Portugal in the quarters
• The Netherlands had a pretty gentle run to the semis, beating Wales and Poland, before going out to Brazil; whilst France defeated Spain 1-0 in the other semi
• A relatively even final saw a very uneven scoreline as Gabriel Jesus, Rodrygo and Eder Militao goals saw Brazil defeat the French 3-0, Antoine Griezmann the biggest culprit for Les Blues
• Cristiano Ronaldo took home the Golden Boot after scoring all 4 in Portugal's opening group game with Ghana, and a brace against South Korea; whilst Arnaut Danjuma won the Golden Ball, and Jamal Musiala young player of the tournament

[SteinkelssonFM]

Agree with you comments and thoughts behind the 4-3-3 as this too is a formation which I often find myself reverting back to. I do love the 4-3-3 but want to avoid it in this edition. 

Keen to see how your tactical tweaks impact performance both for and against as you progress through the periods. One question, do you have the personnel at your disposal to play each system, knowing that a quick google search can easily highlight the strengths and weaknesses. 

Nice to see Danjuma pick up the Golden Ball from a personal note.  

[keeper#1]

Messi crashing out in the group stage in your game world?

My game world says hold my beer.

[danielgear]

10 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

not 3 strikers, I'm not a monster

Have you considered the 442 diamond?

[phnompenhandy]

2 hours ago, danielgear said:

Have you considered the 442 diamond?

That was my thought - with 1-star right wingers, I figured you want a way to not use them and go with a narrow diamond.

[Shrewnaldo]

16 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Agree with you comments and thoughts behind the 4-3-3 as this too is a formation which I often find myself reverting back to. I do love the 4-3-3 but want to avoid it in this edition. 

Keen to see how your tactical tweaks impact performance both for and against as you progress through the periods. One question, do you have the personnel at your disposal to play each system, knowing that a quick google search can easily highlight the strengths and weaknesses. 

Nice to see Danjuma pick up the Golden Ball from a personal note.  

Yeah the squad is pretty well covered - perhaps not in any sort of quality but then there isn't really any quality at all. So trying the different systems let me try out a whole bunch of different players in different roles - and because I can't see the numerical attributes that's very useful. The only area where this has been a bit more difficult is at centre back - there are lots of options but some of them are not exactly reliable, so finding three starters is problematic.

16 hours ago, keeper#1 said:

Messi crashing out in the group stage in your game world?

My game world says hold my beer.

That's even better than the usual Scotland / Ireland winners that only ever happens in FM. Ghana went out in the groups on mine - good group that with Portugal, Uruguay and South Korea.

11 hours ago, danielgear said:

Have you considered the 442 diamond?

You'll probably remember that I played that with Bristol City until the last season when I, shock horror, switched to 4-3-3 and finished second. Not keen on anything too narrow here though - our most effective players have been Giousis from the left wing and Liesdek from the right. The former could play as a 10, and the latter as the right wing-back - but neither as effectively. I thought the 5-3-2 varieties would give me a glimpse at a similar narrow attacking system.

And as usual, this is part of the problem (clearly my problem and not the game's) - I don't really know what I want. I just want to do something different. Bit bored of the same old, same old.

9 hours ago, phnompenhandy said:

That was my thought - with 1-star right wingers, I figured you want a way to not use them and go with a narrow diamond.

That 1-star rating is their ability as a trequartista. We have a couple who are really decent wingers and Liesdek has been particularly effective, leading my assist charts.

[Shrewnaldo]

Recruitment changes

I quite like the intent of the recruitment changes for FM23 but I really feel like SI don't have it set right. Every time I set a recruitment focus, it seems to be completed insanely quickly - within a week or two - and almost inevitably without finding a single suitable player. I've tried making the focus very broad or very narrow with no seeming difference. And where I've tried to use 'ongoing' focuses, all that happens is that the same raft of players are listed in the 'ongoing' tabs, with absolutely no-one making it to the 'recommendations' or 'near misses'.

Some of this might be down to my poor scouting team, or the club's low reputation and players of the required quality simply being unwilling to join. Regardless, it's left me with a dearth of options going into the second half of the season when I'd like to be honing targets and starting to speak to agents.

So instead, I've decided to change from my original intention and use the Player Search screen, but in a specific way.

I've unchecked the "Interested in" filter as what I feel is the most unrealistic aspect of this screen.

Next, I'll essentially try to use it as a statistical database that real life managers or recruitment departments will be able to access. Using a custom view specific to the position, or the output that I'm looking for, I can then manually send the scouts to go and provide a report, or watch a handful of games. To keep it as realistic as possible, I'm going to limit the search to players within leagues that are covered by my scouting package - so at the moment that will be domestic leagues only. Expanding that scouting range is going to be a priority pretty quickly.

It's clear that we need to bring in some quality if we're to meet our inital target of promotion by 2026. The third period didn't go that well, with just two wins and three draws.

Goal scoring was clearly the issue in this period as all three of our striking options went through simultaneous droughts - none of them scoring between 18th November and 10th March in the league which is, you know, not ideal. The fault for some of that may lie with me, however, given the constant tactical meanderings which robs the team from any sort of consistency. The overall table still has us in 11th, which is much better than our pre-season prediction of 19th and, with our fourth period matches being against mostly lower half sides, an outside shot at an unlikely playoff spot.

[keeper#1]

The problem I ran into is different.  I put my chief scout in charge of scouting and he just repeats the same focuses over and over.  If he does drop a recruiting focus, he doesn't add a new one in the old one's place.

[_Ben_]

4 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Some of this might be down to my poor scouting team, or the club's low reputation and players of the required quality simply being unwilling to join. Regardless, it's left me with a dearth of options going into the second half of the season when I'd like to be honing targets and starting to speak to agents.

So instead, I've decided to change from my original intention and use the Player Search screen, but in a specific way.

I've unchecked the "Interested in" filter as what I feel is the most unrealistic aspect of this screen.

Next, I'll essentially try to use it as a statistical database that real life managers or recruitment departments will be able to access. Using a custom view specific to the position, or the output that I'm looking for, I can then manually send the scouts to go and provide a report, or watch a handful of games. To keep it as realistic as possible, I'm going to limit the search to players within leagues that are covered by my scouting package - so at the moment that will be domestic leagues only. Expanding that scouting range is going to be a priority pretty quickly.

Magnificent!

I’m literally in the same boat and had the same thoughts about how i can recruit in a way that feels realistic to me. This is what I’d been kind of planning in my head, too - so feels great to know someone has the same idea!

[Shrewnaldo]

We've set up a new affiliate deal with one of the Netherlands' giants. The board gave me the option between Utrecht and Feyenoord. The decision was actually a little more difficult than you'd think because Utrecht offered a fee alongside the deal, but at the end of the day a couple of seasons' access to free loan deals for the Feyenoord youth is just too good to turn down.

How are you finding the new recruitment focuses, Ben? They just don't seem to work quite right to me

[SixPointer]

On 31/10/2022 at 13:25, Shrewnaldo said:

As a brief aside, I really like the inclusion of the new statistics but by god is it frustrating that SI haven't included Progressive Passes or Pressures, for example, in the analytical screens. I want to see these events - see what they mean in FM, see how the game interprets them, see how players react to the events. I just feel like this is, as with a lot of new 'features' in FM these days, a half-way house that leaves you constantly underwhelmed by what should be solid additions.

I totally agree with this! Both are key stats that helped me decided my style of play this year. But the word underwhelming you used it’s so fitting. I was hoping to see graphs and comparisons. Instead am just left with a number.

[Shrewnaldo]

Some tactical thoughts / whinging

In some of the previous posts, I've done my usual whining about wanting to be able to do something a bit different tactically, without having any actual idea of what I want to do and simultaneously rejecting anything which might really be different because it looks a bit funny on the tactics screen. Over the course of the last few games, I've just settled on the inevitable acceptance that the match engine is what it is, and I should just build the same old system trying to replicate the sort of football that I like watching.

And in doing so, I've run into the same problems that I always do - so I thought I'd just write them down and try to work through which of the imperfect options to impose going forward. Essentially, I want to play a system which defends as a 4-1-4-1 but attacks as a 2-3-5, something like what I outlined a long, long time ago here which evolved into this. In my old thought process, I'd wanted to play something like a 3-3-4 in attack but over time I've been happier to push an extra player forward into a more modern front 5.

It's a well-known truth in the FM world that the positioning you see on the tactics pitch is only how your players should line up once you are established in the defensive phase. From transition into attack and back again, the typical shape will vary. Therefore, it's a very simple thing to decide that the tactics screen should look something like this if you want to defend in a 4-1-4-1 (ignore the roles, I've just loaded the default shapes).

So far, so good. The game then allows you to select your preferred means of defending - perhaps being more passive in a low-block and lower line, or trying to be more pro-active in a high press and high line to force the opposition into early mistakes. I don't really have any particular, inherent preference for either and I tend to figure out what I think works best for each match engine. At the moment, I'm going with a higher line but mid-block to keep a compact shape, whilst asking my defensive line to Drop off more to mitigate against the lack of pace I have at the back. All very straightforward.

On to the more interesting part, perhaps - what to do when we get the ball. To go from a 4-1-4-1 defensive shape into a 2-3-5 attacking shape, we have a whole host of options. The most typical modern way to achieve this would be for the wingers to come inside and support the 9, whilst the wingbacks overlap to provide the width so that you end up with something like this:

Again, very straightforward and oh so very boring.

My idea back in 2014 (before Pep did it, I'll have you know), was to shorten the transition distances by having the fullbacks come inside to act as auxiliary midfielders and keeping the wide players on the flanks thereby allowing the two central midfielders to provide the central thrust and support to the 9. So instead you get something like this:

It's the same shape and it has its advantages and disadvantages but it's just a system that I like to use. You could even run a hybrid of the two - on the right-flank, you have the fullback come inside to form the midfield line, whilst on the left, the wingback overlaps an inside forward and the midfielder holds his position. All sorts of options. The hybrid gives you some benefits in having an additional player to transition through - as the wingback, Blackson in the screenshot below, will hold his deep position longer whilst play is being developed from the back and can provide a wide link from defence to attack. The corollary, of course, is that you have one fewer player in forward positions if you transition very quickly. In the screenshot below, Mulder is playing as a CM(A) and indicates how an additional midfield runner would be ~20 yards higher up the pitch than the attacking wingback. Conversely, the holding midfielder will tend to sit higher when you have established possession in the final third, compared to an IWB (notwithstanding duties and propensity for forward runs). I'm not saying one is better than the other - just options.

To be continued... got distracted by real life duties and don't want to lose the half-completed post.

 

[SixPointer]

Last year was the first time I used. IWB and I fell in love with them, they are fantastic tools for positional play, mainly overloading the half space. Plus the fact they transition to and from different slots in the pitch so early. I love the shape making the 235 and found it so successful last season especially getting third man runs by using two AMC (A). 
 

what am intrigued to see from you is how this will all play with the adjustment to how pivots work. Have you noticed any differences? I won’t be using this system this year so be keen to see how the IWB’s and CMS all link in your save. 

[MH00]

10 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

My idea back in 2014 (before Pep did it, I'll have you know), was to shorten the transition distances by having the fullbacks come inside to act as auxiliary midfielders and keeping the wide players on the flanks thereby allowing the two central midfielders to provide the central thrust and support to the 9. So instead you get something like this:

I tried this on FM22, Couldn't get it to work, a real shame. 

[Shrewnaldo]

5 hours ago, SixPointer said:

Last year was the first time I used. IWB and I fell in love with them, they are fantastic tools for positional play, mainly overloading the half space. Plus the fact they transition to and from different slots in the pitch so early. I love the shape making the 235 and found it so successful last season especially getting third man runs by using two AMC (A). 
 

what am intrigued to see from you is how this will all play with the adjustment to how pivots work. Have you noticed any differences? I won’t be using this system this year so be keen to see how the IWB’s and CMS all link in your save. 

Using 2 AMCs instead of MCs is one of the options I'll come onto. For me it works much better on the ball by encouraging those 8/10s to play so much closer to the 9, but the defensive gaps are just too much to accept as a trade off.

Re pivots - not a huge amount of change although I'm playing with a regista who I want to push up anyway. So far, I've found him less adventurous than 22 but that could be down to traits 

3 hours ago, MH00 said:

I tried this on FM22, Couldn't get it to work, a real shame. 

Which part did you struggle with last year?

[Shrewnaldo]

First Season Round-Up

I'll come back to the tactical wittering shortly but I've just finished season 1 (2022/23) so thought it was an apt time to wrap-up. Headline story is that we were no great shakes in the cup, beating lower league AFC then losing to Eredivisie regulars Groningen; but we had a pretty successful campaign in the league.

Predicted to finish 19th, we meandered through the four periods as a solid mid-table side. Our worst performance came in period 3 with just 9 points, but we recovered so well with 20 points in period 4 that we snuck into the final playoff spot available from the 38-game table. Sadly, our flirtation with promotion wouldn't last long as we went out to NAC Breda across two legs.

Yet even that experience was encouraging as, following a 0-0 bore draw in the home leg, we out xG'd the third-placed side in the return game only for our 'keeper to have a shocker and cost us in a 5-2 loss.

Which leaves us planning for next season and what I hope will be our first genuine push towards a realistic promotion campaign. Which takes me onto what I find the most interesting aspect of FM these days - recruitment season. Over the course of the year, I've secured the players that I definitely want to keep, meaning we have 18 players out of contract come 30th June. Of those 18, there are 3 that I am considering trying to keep - midfielders Tom Overtoom and Anass Najah, and left-back Delvechio Blackson.

That decision will likely depend on whether I can find alternatives on cheaper deals before their deals expire. The three of them represent nearly 6000 minutes of game-time this season but I've been less then convinced they should be offering anything other than squad depth for a team pushing at the top half of the table.

One other player I need to decide on is my first signing at Telstar, Jeremy Helmer.

With the first transfer window disabled, I was only able to bring Helmer in once some money was generated through the £20k sale of Mihkel Ainsalu to Flora Talinn, of DanGear fame. That £20k was pumped straight into my wage budget but, with no stats to go on for a free transfer, I insisted on a short-term contract only for Helmer, but an option for the club to extend by a year. And whilst he's been good, his metrics just don't match up to our other midfield options and his £1700/week contract will go un-renewed.

Two players I will bring in are Koen Blommestijn having done enough during his loan spell that I've resigned him as a rotation option; and Bas Breukers joining from amateur side Groene Star on the strength of some excellent scouting reports. The latter is a bit of a test, 

With the Dutch amateur leagues being an inactive division, I have no real idea how Breukers' stats will stand up once he starts playing "real games". He looks to have the basic attributes to be able to play across the front line, with some work on his strength needed, and his 0.56 goals per 90 with a 58% shots on target ratio is very decent for a young player. This transfer should give me an early indication as to how those stats will compare to Eerste Divisie players and if delving into the lower leagues is a viable option.

So what else do I need? Well basically quality everywhere would be nice but mostly we just need numbers. I'm trying to force myself to use the Squad Planner so this should indicate the issue:

Midfield is a clear problem (hence the decision re Overtoom and Najah), whilst we need depth across the entire pitch really. The youth intake provided a couple of options which I think can be bench-filler and our new link with Feyenoord should be able to provide 3-5 really good options but I'm anticipating a pretty busy summer recruitment period.

And with the recruitment focus system having proven absolutely and utterly useless for me so far, it's going to be a lot of manual scouting using the aforementioned Player Search filters and some statistical lenses. Which, to be honest, suits me just fine. I really do enjoy that side of the game more than anything else these days.

So time to get started I guess

[MH00]

9 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Which part did you struggle with last year?

I tried to replicate Ten Hag's Ajax. But how Antony played for them i couldn't replicate, Also the wingbacks would constantly spam crosses which i didn't want. Gave up on it then because it didn't feel rewarding and I was better of with plug and play.

[tjt65]

Solid season there Shrew. 2nd best defence in the league gives you a decent platform to build from.
Which looks about right considering that good core GK - CB/CB - DM set up you have.

It's just some quality around them it seems like you need!

Looking forward to seeing how you get on bringing some bodies in.

[deltablue]

They seem like a great club.

[Shrewnaldo]

23 hours ago, MH00 said:

I tried to replicate Ten Hag's Ajax. But how Antony played for them i couldn't replicate, Also the wingbacks would constantly spam crosses which i didn't want. Gave up on it then because it didn't feel rewarding and I was better of with plug and play.

Sorry, I'm not really familiar with Ten Haag's Ajax, did they play with inverted wingbacks?

13 hours ago, tjt65 said:

Solid season there Shrew. 2nd best defence in the league gives you a decent platform to build from.
Which looks about right considering that good core GK - CB/CB - DM set up you have.

It's just some quality around them it seems like you need!

Looking forward to seeing how you get on bringing some bodies in.

Yeah, really pleased with the defensive performance and you rightly point out that we've got a solid core that I'm looking to keep. I love to build from the back so this gives me a bit of hope that I just need add a bit of sparkle. Don't think we're far off really.

10 hours ago, deltablue said:

They seem like a great club.

Agreed. I like that they seem to walk the talk, and I've had some great interactions with the fan base on twitter which has really helped me get into the save

[danielgear]

On 08/11/2022 at 21:41, Shrewnaldo said:

Mihkel Ainsalu to Flora Talinn, of DanGear fame

 

A great first season if you consider the media prediction. Solid start to build upon. 

How’s the tactic tinkering now? Settled on 433?

[MH00]

22 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Sorry, I'm not really familiar with Ten Haag's Ajax, did they play with inverted wingbacks?

Mazraoui, played like a inverted wingback. Blind playing on the left hand side often went inside so they were building up with 3 atb. But there was a lot of variation of the 3 players playing out of the back. Dm Alvarez dropping in between for example.

[Shrewnaldo]

On 10/11/2022 at 08:56, danielgear said:

 

A great first season if you consider the media prediction. Solid start to build upon. 

How’s the tactic tinkering now? Settled on 433?

Yeah pretty much settled on the 4-3-3 and I'll just have to assuage my desire for expermentation with some game-to-game tweaks and in-match reactivity. I guess sticking to a consistent-ish system will help with building the statistical profiles that I need.

19 hours ago, MH00 said:

Mazraoui, played like a inverted wingback. Blind playing on the left hand side often went inside so they were building up with 3 atb. But there was a lot of variation of the 3 players playing out of the back. Dm Alvarez dropping in between for example.

That's one thing I think the current FM tactics system is particularly bad at representing - fluidity within systems. I gave the example of a midfield pairing where, when you're attacking, you'd want one to go with the attack and one to stay and protect. But you don't always want it being the same one who goes. In real football, a player would look at his midfield partner and decide whether or not to go based on the other's positioning. That doesn't seem to be possible in FM. Maybe it's just that I'm only ever seeing examples where it goes wrong (which does happen IRL) but players don't seem to incorporate that sort of flexibility.

[Shrewnaldo]

Season 2 Preparation

Conscious that I still need to finish my thoughts regarding the tactic, but I'm at the start of the 2023-24 season and wanted to use this post to help my decision-making - specifically on a unique approach to my scouting conundrum. First though, following complaints from fans, Naldo Spitsmuis has had his first pitch-side fashion upgrade.

I had planned from the start to update every season as we go through, but don't feel like we've progressed far enough yet to justify any of the smarter outfits. Hopefully with time...

The board did furnish me with £257k, not to upgrade my wardrobe but to bring in new players but we have, as yet, refused to spend any of it. Instead, we've prioritised free transfers and a few loans from parent club Feyenoord.

I'd covered Blommestijn and Breukers above, whilst van Arnhem's deal is similar to the latter -  a minor gamble bringing in a player from the Dutch amateur leagues when I can't be certain of the veracity of the statistics on offer. Similar to the striker, van Arnhem came with some glowing reports from our meagre scouting contingent and some promising stats. In particular, his 0,33 assists per 90 caught my eye, 13 in 41 starts. And on a free transfer, with much lower wages than the outgoing Helmer, he also represented a low-risk approach.

Which is exactly what we also got with the three loanees. Candelaria will come in primarily as the left inverted wingback but able to cover at centre back. Playing for Feyenoord's reserves last season, his passing from the back was exceptional - rarely giving the ball away and with a very handy 5.29 progressive passes per 90. He's also 6'4" and provides additional aerial prowess for set pieces at both ends. Guus Baars is very much a bog-standard centre back with relatively modest passing statistics but really impressive defensive output including tackles and headers per 90 that exceeded even my high-performing centre backs.

Finally, we needed a little bit of midfield flair and I went with an old approach - bringing a winger into the centre as a midfield runner. Chabrol-Touré is really an AML but his dribbling ability through the middle, coupled with his excellent passing ability (for this level), should make him the ideal CM(A) to complete our first-choice midfield three.

This leaves us with the following strengthened squad and sufficient depth across the board to cope with all but the worst of injury crises.

The one position where I was tempted to invest some of the transfer kitty was up front. Blommestijn is good but inconsistent, Smit is still developing and Breukers is a bit of an unknown having been brought in from amateur football. But I couldn't find an option who combined the physicality and creativity that I was looking for, so in the end I've opted to keep with what we have and instead do something completely different with the transfer funds.

As it stands, the board provided a £27.5k scouting budget. The only package we can then afford covers only the 'Netherlands' and my recruitment options are severely limited. Because of our relatively low reputation, there aren't many players from the top two tiers who want to join us - so I'm left with either taking a gamble on the uncertain statistics from amateur football, or trying to find a gem in the dregs that everyone else has jettisoned.

So instead I'm going to do something I've never done before and transfer my wage budget into the scouting budget. This will give me a £276k scouting budget and allow me to improve our scouting range to 'Europe'. Even if I do this for just one season, I can get my scouts out around the lower reputation leagues gathering knowledge about as many players as possible - which I can then feed into my statistical views and, come the end of the year, bring in the 3 or 4 players I think we'll need to take that extra step towards promotion.

And once we're promoted, we should naturally extend our scouting range anyway. The only gamble is the obvious one that I need those transfer funds - but having trimmed the squad to a total of 30 players and allowed the high earners like Plet and Helmer to leave, our wage outlay is a mere 50% of the £26k per week allowed. So worst case scenario - I just re-assign some of that wage budget into the transfer budget and bring in an emergency signing.

This all makes a lot of sense to me and I think represents a pretty minimal gamble. Given the game style, I need scouting knowledge more than anything right now. The board need us to finish mid-table only and I'm extremely confident that we'll meet that target comfortably with the squad at my disposal. Playoffs are my aim - preferably through winning one of the stages. Playoffs and a couple of statistical targets.

Some time ago I came across this graph on twitter and it piqued an interest, largely because I was pleased to see how closely it managed my experience from FM. As opposed to a series of other statistics, it would appear that FM matches real life in capturing the quality of an average shot. As opposed to just relying on xG for and against, understanding the average xG per shot taken and faced can give you a broader understanding of whether your tactics or your personnel are failing.

And so my statistical targets are to have an average xG per shot of >0.11 and restrict our opposition to an average of <0.08. Last season, we had an average xG/shot of 0.118 and faced an average xG/shot of 0.113. So clear work to do on the defensive side of the game despite ending up with the second best defence in the league.

How I plan to do that and the completion of the errant tactical post to follow in due course...

 

 

[MH00]

5 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

That's one thing I think the current FM tactics system is particularly bad at representing - fluidity within systems. I gave the example of a midfield pairing where, when you're attacking, you'd want one to go with the attack and one to stay and protect. But you don't always want it being the same one who goes. In real football, a player would look at his midfield partner and decide whether or not to go based on the other's positioning. That doesn't seem to be possible in FM. Maybe it's just that I'm only ever seeing examples where it goes wrong (which does happen IRL) but players don't seem to incorporate that sort of flexibility.

Yes it is a shame and doesn't feel rewarding when you can't let something that is well worked out work.

[SteinkelssonFM]

11 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

to have an average xG per shot of >0.11 and restrict our opposition to an average of <0.08. L

Keen to see what you implement to achieve the above. I am certain you will be looking to play compact and look to force the opponent outside, for the cross. Knowing that headers generate a significantly lower xG than a shot. 

Trying to become a Brighton/Brentford of this world 💪

[_Ben_]

Shrew - loving your writing, as always. Really intrigued to see you get your teeth into recruitment and how you played the budgets to get what you wanted there. I've always been far less confident with recruiting at lower levels when using stats but want to take inspiration from you on this. 

12 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Keen to see what you implement to achieve the above. I am certain you will be looking to play compact and look to force the opponent outside, for the cross. Knowing that headers generate a significantly lower xG than a shot. 

And, also, sometimes something relatively obvious just sparks a thousand thoughts. So, thanks for that - @MattyLewis11!