[FM23] Passing the IJ Test

[Shrewnaldo]

15 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Keen to see what you implement to achieve the above. I am certain you will be looking to play compact and look to force the opponent outside, for the cross. Knowing that headers generate a significantly lower xG than a shot. 

Trying to become a Brighton/Brentford of this world 💪

I like that idea, but at the moment we're suffering because when the ball goes wide the central defenders don't track back properly. Example below - here the play has developed slowly but instead of dropping back to be, at worst, in line with the left-back they have held a higher line allowing the striker to get goalside and have a free shot. Thankfully offside in this case but this sort of stuff happens far too often and, in my opinion, is a symptom of both shocking positioning from the left-back and failure of the centre backs to react properly to the play around them.

So at the moment, I'm trying to restrict the opposition to mostly ranged shots through the middle and only funneling wide when they're playing 5-3-2 or something similar with only one player on each flank. Progress but not yet at the target yet:

2 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

Shrew - loving your writing, as always. Really intrigued to see you get your teeth into recruitment and how you played the budgets to get what you wanted there. I've always been far less confident with recruiting at lower levels when using stats but want to take inspiration from you on this. 

And, also, sometimes something relatively obvious just sparks a thousand thoughts. So, thanks for that - @MattyLewis11!

So far I have to say that I'm enormously pleased with Breukers but van Arnhem has been a little underwhelming so far. But a 50% success ratio, in the short-term, for low-value, low-risk signings is pretty decent in my view. What I'd like to work out is a 'conversion factor' to apply to the amateur stats to try and make them comparable to Eerste Divisie output. Last year, I applied a 5% factor for signings from Ligue 1 into the Premier League and I need to work out what that would be not just for these domestic transfers but also, for example, bringing someone in from the Finnish league. Properly nerdy stuff, but great fun.

[SteinkelssonFM]

9 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

symptom of both shocking positioning from the left-back

Was going to say what hell is he doing, not working as a unit in that example...if only the defend engaged worked on providing marginal gains within the ME rather than focusing on the attributes. 

Just out of interest what set pieces are you using? Just been trying to set up some shorter corners after reading an article on The Athletic, wish you could watch what you are attempting to create in the set piece hub to aid creation. 

[Boon]

On 11/11/2022 at 19:33, Shrewnaldo said:

Season 2 Preparation

Conscious that I still need to finish my thoughts regarding the tactic, but I'm at the start of the 2023-24 season and wanted to use this post to help my decision-making - specifically on a unique approach to my scouting conundrum. First though, following complaints from fans, Naldo Spitsmuis has had his first pitch-side fashion upgrade.

I had planned from the start to update every season as we go through, but don't feel like we've progressed far enough yet to justify any of the smarter outfits. Hopefully with time...

The board did furnish me with £257k, not to upgrade my wardrobe but to bring in new players but we have, as yet, refused to spend any of it. Instead, we've prioritised free transfers and a few loans from parent club Feyenoord.

I'd covered Blommestijn and Breukers above, whilst van Arnhem's deal is similar to the latter -  a minor gamble bringing in a player from the Dutch amateur leagues when I can't be certain of the veracity of the statistics on offer. Similar to the striker, van Arnhem came with some glowing reports from our meagre scouting contingent and some promising stats. In particular, his 0,33 assists per 90 caught my eye, 13 in 41 starts. And on a free transfer, with much lower wages than the outgoing Helmer, he also represented a low-risk approach.

Which is exactly what we also got with the three loanees. Candelaria will come in primarily as the left inverted wingback but able to cover at centre back. Playing for Feyenoord's reserves last season, his passing from the back was exceptional - rarely giving the ball away and with a very handy 5.29 progressive passes per 90. He's also 6'4" and provides additional aerial prowess for set pieces at both ends. Guus Baars is very much a bog-standard centre back with relatively modest passing statistics but really impressive defensive output including tackles and headers per 90 that exceeded even my high-performing centre backs.

Finally, we needed a little bit of midfield flair and I went with an old approach - bringing a winger into the centre as a midfield runner. Chabrol-Touré is really an AML but his dribbling ability through the middle, coupled with his excellent passing ability (for this level), should make him the ideal CM(A) to complete our first-choice midfield three.

This leaves us with the following strengthened squad and sufficient depth across the board to cope with all but the worst of injury crises.

The one position where I was tempted to invest some of the transfer kitty was up front. Blommestijn is good but inconsistent, Smit is still developing and Breukers is a bit of an unknown having been brought in from amateur football. But I couldn't find an option who combined the physicality and creativity that I was looking for, so in the end I've opted to keep with what we have and instead do something completely different with the transfer funds.

As it stands, the board provided a £27.5k scouting budget. The only package we can then afford covers only the 'Netherlands' and my recruitment options are severely limited. Because of our relatively low reputation, there aren't many players from the top two tiers who want to join us - so I'm left with either taking a gamble on the uncertain statistics from amateur football, or trying to find a gem in the dregs that everyone else has jettisoned.

So instead I'm going to do something I've never done before and transfer my wage budget into the scouting budget. This will give me a £276k scouting budget and allow me to improve our scouting range to 'Europe'. Even if I do this for just one season, I can get my scouts out around the lower reputation leagues gathering knowledge about as many players as possible - which I can then feed into my statistical views and, come the end of the year, bring in the 3 or 4 players I think we'll need to take that extra step towards promotion.

And once we're promoted, we should naturally extend our scouting range anyway. The only gamble is the obvious one that I need those transfer funds - but having trimmed the squad to a total of 30 players and allowed the high earners like Plet and Helmer to leave, our wage outlay is a mere 50% of the £26k per week allowed. So worst case scenario - I just re-assign some of that wage budget into the transfer budget and bring in an emergency signing.

This all makes a lot of sense to me and I think represents a pretty minimal gamble. Given the game style, I need scouting knowledge more than anything right now. The board need us to finish mid-table only and I'm extremely confident that we'll meet that target comfortably with the squad at my disposal. Playoffs are my aim - preferably through winning one of the stages. Playoffs and a couple of statistical targets.

Some time ago I came across this graph on twitter and it piqued an interest, largely because I was pleased to see how closely it managed my experience from FM. As opposed to a series of other statistics, it would appear that FM matches real life in capturing the quality of an average shot. As opposed to just relying on xG for and against, understanding the average xG per shot taken and faced can give you a broader understanding of whether your tactics or your personnel are failing.

And so my statistical targets are to have an average xG per shot of >0.11 and restrict our opposition to an average of <0.08. Last season, we had an average xG/shot of 0.118 and faced an average xG/shot of 0.113. So clear work to do on the defensive side of the game despite ending up with the second best defence in the league.

How I plan to do that and the completion of the errant tactical post to follow in due course...

 

 

I did very similar with my Den Haag game this year when it comes to Scouting Budget, (I’m only signing players who are no older than 17 when the season starts), opened up the the scouting network, and loaded up my Scouted Players list for real bargains, mostly from Northern Europe. 
 

Had similar problems to you with defending and tracking players back, was fine against the lower teams in the league, but anyone of any strength killed me, started with a 3–2-2-2-1 with wing backs and inside forwards, but now promoted, (Kishna and Verhrydt were the difference) I’ve had to revert to almost a 5-1DM-1-2-1 to stop conceding, it’s very much a team of two half, attack and defence. 

 

Great read as always

[13th Man]

Love the ideas here, and we’ll written as always.

I wanted to (a bit late) jump into the tactics bit - I’m still in the learning part for stats and all that.

The 4-3-3 is hard to beat for flexibility and is used by so many top sides because it suits modern players so well. With that in mind, I’m not so sure it’s an FM thing so much as a current player thing. We have dynamic midfielders, wingers that cut in, fullbacks that bomb forward, and forwards that press and focus on off the ball movement - at least at the top of the game.  

I get wanting to branch out though - that’s why I’ve been running 3atb systems the past two editions. It took a lot of tweaking and adjustments to make sure spaces were attacked and defended as I wanted but it’s all doable with the right personnel. I was a bit lucky that there were either enough CBs (Livorno) or some good FB/CB hybrids (Portsmouth) for me right at the beginning, but my current save has only four CBs which would make things tricky to run 3atb to start…

[Shrewnaldo]

On 07/11/2022 at 23:04, Shrewnaldo said:

Some tactical thoughts / whinging

...

To be continued... got distracted by real life duties and don't want to lose the half-completed post.

So here I am to continue...

Last time, I outlined how I'd settled on the standard 4-3-3 shape to get the 4-1-4-1 defensive arrangement using a high line but mid-block and drop-off instructions. Meanwhile, we're looking to break into a 2-3-5 shape with the ball by using inverted wingbacks in a short transition to support central midfield, wingers from AML/AMR to stretch the play and midfield runners to support the 9.

Ideally, my idea has always been that the DM, two MCs and 9 should work as an advanced diamond, with strong connections between the four. However, so far I've been struggling to get the most vertical of the connections - from DM to 9 - consistently right. I see the DM as being the heart of the team - the primary playmaker and, opposition dependent, I'm looking for the majority of the play to go through him. Even when we have the ball in advanced positions, I want that DM to be the one looking for the ball and receiving the safe pass should advanced players get into trouble. Bringing the ball back once re-opens all sorts of passing angles for the advanced five, something like this...

The 2-3-5 shape is clear and the left-winger is nicely isolated against his man. The MCL, a mezzala in this game, is looking to support him with a run in behind so it's unlikely that Giousis will look to dribble his man on the outside. Instead, he looks back to the DM, who has stepped out into midfield in plenty of space because the midfield runners have dragged the opponent's midfield back with them. Once the DM gets it, he'll have four potential passing options - possibly give if the aforementioned mezzala makes himself available.

That, to me, is the perfect set-up in midfield and so I'm absolutely settled on a regista at DM. Ordinarily I'd be concerned that such an aggressive role as the lone DM would leave us exposed, but that's the beauty of the inverted wingbacks who, as you can see in the screenshot above, have come inside to the typical DM positions and are protecting us against the counter. Pleasingly, the IWBs also occasionally take the opportunity to break beyond the midfield but those instances have, to date, been during counters or when the regista is relatively deep. This despite my prior whinges about players not appropriately considering the positioning of their team-mates when making decisions...

You can also see how using wingers on both flanks help stretch the play and prevents the opposition defence from retreating into a narrow, low block. We're already looking to move around the defensive line on the left and have the winger on the right holding the width on the far side. If the defence doesn't keep its width, then something like this happens and we get free men available for the switch.

As you can probably tell from the description so far, I'm 90% happy with the way the tactic plays but there are consistent issues. Every tactic will struggle against certain systems and this is no different. For example, if we play against the now-popular 3-4-2-1 with two AMs, then the oppositions two 10s can swamp our regista and cut off the passing lanes to the IWBs which is such an important part of his ability to retain the ball. In those instances, I switch the regista to a ball-winner, go wide and attack the flanks. So we adapt. Fine.

But some aspects I have been unable to, as yet, find successful adaptations. The primary issue being the lack of a runner in-behind. The over-arching strategy of this approach is to pull the opposition forward and out of position, then play through them quickly. By using our primary playmaker at DM, and retaining passing options at every angle from him, I want the opponent chasing the ball as much as possible - first pushing up to try and close down the regista and IWBs, then chasing back with the midfield runners. On both occasions, the idea is to move the space to somewhere more dangerous by forcing the defenders occupying that space to move somewhere they don't want to go. Typically, I'd employ a striker who would drop off the line and continue this theme up top - looking to force the defensive line to collapse inwards by dragging a centre back up the pitch and creating space in behind him.

But to date, I haven't had a great deal of luck consistently having the midfield runners break beyond the 9 to exploit that space. Obviously SI has nerfed the CM(A) but I think the trouble might also be down to personnel - whilst my options for CM are good on the ball, none of them have the sort of pace they'll probably need to represent a threat in behind. Also my 9s aren't the most creative players in the world, so whilst I look to rectify those problems, I've simply reverted to using the 9 to get in behind himself. Using this.

And, to be honest, I can't really complain because we're smashing it. We won the first period to give us a guaranteed play-off spot and currently top the table on goal difference. Which is, you know, handy.

And despite being used in what I consider to be a sub-optimal role for the system, our strikers have been performing admirably with Rein Smit providing 0.73 goals per 90, and Koen Blommestijn 0.67 - both with 6 total. So perhaps I'm wrong and we should simply stick with FM's favourite striker role going forward - the AF. For the long-term, my preference is still to find a creative striker to come in as a false 9 to get that vertical axis going with the regista and, hopefully, bring in the central runners - who have scored at around 0.2 goals per 90 each - into play more effectively.

For now though, I won't fix what isn't broken.

[Shrewnaldo]

10 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Was going to say what hell is he doing, not working as a unit in that example...if only the defend engaged worked on providing marginal gains within the ME rather than focusing on the attributes. 

Just out of interest what set pieces are you using? Just been trying to set up some shorter corners after reading an article on The Athletic, wish you could watch what you are attempting to create in the set piece hub to aid creation. 

I tend not to alter set pieces too much. I get stuck in that weird dilemma between wanting to use them effectively and then abandoning anything which feels a bit *too effective* as an exploit. The only thing I tend to change in the default set-ups is to keep some players in 'rest defence' or recovery areas - as opposed to FM's madness of having no-one between the box and the halfway line.

8 hours ago, Boon said:

I did very similar with my Den Haag game this year when it comes to Scouting Budget, (I’m only signing players who are no older than 17 when the season starts), opened up the the scouting network, and loaded up my Scouted Players list for real bargains, mostly from Northern Europe. 
 

Had similar problems to you with defending and tracking players back, was fine against the lower teams in the league, but anyone of any strength killed me, started with a 3–2-2-2-1 with wing backs and inside forwards, but now promoted, (Kishna and Verhrydt were the difference) I’ve had to revert to almost a 5-1DM-1-2-1 to stop conceding, it’s very much a team of two half, attack and defence. 

 

Great read as always

Nice. I had some great saves with ADO back in the day. Kishna is just too good for that league. The step up in quality between the Eerste and Eredivise seems massive... not looking forward to that first season struggle.

3 hours ago, 13th Man said:

Love the ideas here, and we’ll written as always.

I wanted to (a bit late) jump into the tactics bit - I’m still in the learning part for stats and all that.

The 4-3-3 is hard to beat for flexibility and is used by so many top sides because it suits modern players so well. With that in mind, I’m not so sure it’s an FM thing so much as a current player thing. We have dynamic midfielders, wingers that cut in, fullbacks that bomb forward, and forwards that press and focus on off the ball movement - at least at the top of the game.  

I get wanting to branch out though - that’s why I’ve been running 3atb systems the past two editions. It took a lot of tweaking and adjustments to make sure spaces were attacked and defended as I wanted but it’s all doable with the right personnel. I was a bit lucky that there were either enough CBs (Livorno) or some good FB/CB hybrids (Portsmouth) for me right at the beginning, but my current save has only four CBs which would make things tricky to run 3atb to start…

Fair point. 4-3-3 was almost ubiquitous for a while there and is still very much one of the 'go to' options IRL. I think my frustrations are more just how restrictive the match engine is so that it can avoid exploits. It's not so much the overall shape that you set the team in - it's about directing certain players to look for particular passing options, or specific rotations, or to trigger specific runs on a variety of events. Obviously this system is the only way to get such a complex sport recreated in a system that isn't easily exploited to game-breaking levels... but it's just frustrating.

[danielgear]

16 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Was going to say what hell is he doing, not working as a unit in that example...if only the defend engaged worked on providing marginal gains within the ME rather than focusing on the attributes. 

Just out of interest what set pieces are you using? Just been trying to set up some shorter corners after reading an article on The Athletic, wish you could watch what you are attempting to create in the set piece hub to aid creation. 

My suggestion would be a 2D graphic, like we get on tactical preset selection screen where you can just see movement.

[13th Man]

9 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Fair point. 4-3-3 was almost ubiquitous for a while there and is still very much one of the 'go to' options IRL. I think my frustrations are more just how restrictive the match engine is so that it can avoid exploits. It's not so much the overall shape that you set the team in - it's about directing certain players to look for particular passing options, or specific rotations, or to trigger specific runs on a variety of events. Obviously this system is the only way to get such a complex sport recreated in a system that isn't easily exploited to game-breaking levels... but it's just frustrating.

Fair point to my fair point.  There are definitely ways that the engine will funnel your play into if you want to be effective. 

All the same  my last thread (apart from being a ridiculous imagined sports film franchise) was a a tactical evolution towards creating something like Total Football in the FM match engine. I was actually surprised at how well it worked, especially as I have no clue as to what happens 'under the hood'.  There was very fluid position switching and if, yes, there were certainly certain patterns that were repeated, the variety was quite surprising.  I do think I went pretty far outside the norm without actually doing a crazy formation, so that might be some of it, but it's doable...just maybe not worth the trouble?  Or rather, it would be nice if it wasn't so easy to be successful with the 4-3-3 and prepackaged roles/duties/styes?

[Boon]

19 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

I tend not to alter set pieces too much. I get stuck in that weird dilemma between wanting to use them effectively and then abandoning anything which feels a bit *too effective* as an exploit. The only thing I tend to change in the default set-ups is to keep some players in 'rest defence' or recovery areas - as opposed to FM's madness of having no-one between the box and the halfway line.

Nice. I had some great saves with ADO back in the day. Kishna is just too good for that league. The step up in quality between the Eerste and Eredivise seems massive... not looking forward to that first season struggle.

Fair point. 4-3-3 was almost ubiquitous for a while there and is still very much one of the 'go to' options IRL. I think my frustrations are more just how restrictive the match engine is so that it can avoid exploits. It's not so much the overall shape that you set the team in - it's about directing certain players to look for particular passing options, or specific rotations, or to trigger specific runs on a variety of events. Obviously this system is the only way to get such a complex sport recreated in a system that isn't easily exploited to game-breaking levels... but it's just frustrating.

Yep, far too good for the league, have dropped him into the DLP role this season, just didnt have the players creative enough to get the ball to him, goals have mostly come from set pieces.

 

[Shrewnaldo]

On 14/11/2022 at 01:27, danielgear said:

My suggestion would be a 2D graphic, like we get on tactical preset selection screen where you can just see movement.

I don't think it would take much to make it more useful. Being able to designate certain players as blockers and to pair them with the player you wish them to block for would be helpful. Also stuff like designating the starting position and then run direction of a player - so you could have a player start at the back post but drop off towards the penalty spot whilst everyone runs in towards the goal, hoping to create space the one who has moved for the square ball. That sort of stuff that happens day-in, day-out in real football.

On 14/11/2022 at 05:57, 13th Man said:

Fair point to my fair point.  There are definitely ways that the engine will funnel your play into if you want to be effective. 

All the same  my last thread (apart from being a ridiculous imagined sports film franchise) was a a tactical evolution towards creating something like Total Football in the FM match engine. I was actually surprised at how well it worked, especially as I have no clue as to what happens 'under the hood'.  There was very fluid position switching and if, yes, there were certainly certain patterns that were repeated, the variety was quite surprising.  I do think I went pretty far outside the norm without actually doing a crazy formation, so that might be some of it, but it's doable...just maybe not worth the trouble?  Or rather, it would be nice if it wasn't so easy to be successful with the 4-3-3 and prepackaged roles/duties/styes?

Oh I agree that it will happen, but it's not really because the human manager has done much. We've just put them into a fairly restrictive tactics engine and then left them there for long enough that the game interprets this as tactical familiarity and sufficient coaching time to get the sorts of rotations that is programmed into the game. It's more automated than player-driven.

On 14/11/2022 at 15:22, Boon said:

Yep, far too good for the league, have dropped him into the DLP role this season, just didnt have the players creative enough to get the ball to him, goals have mostly come from set pieces.

 

Interesting switch. I did not see Kishna as a DLP at all but looks like you're getting a tune out of him. 20 goals in season 1 is phenomenal.

[Shrewnaldo]

Taking Stock

We've reached the short winter break and I thought it was an apt time to take stock - primarily aimed at understanding our short-comings and informing the summer's recruitment. Things have been going well and we remain very much in the promotion race. Having won the first period, we're guaranteed a playoff place but sneaking into top two would make that immaterial and get us into the top tier automatically.

Despite our lofty position, I feel like we're not quite performing at our max and I'm keen to see where the issues are - tactically or in terms of personnel.

My immediate focus is defensive. We're the joint-top scorers in the league and have failed to score in only 3 of the first 22 matches. Conversely, we have "only" the 5th best defence and have kept only 7 clean sheets, just under 1 in 3. That's really not good enough for me. We're not losing many games but we've drawn 9, with only 2 of those being goalless. So my logic is that a better defence in just 3 of those draws would give me an extra 6 points and comfortably top. So clearly defence is the focus.

So I went looking through all the available statistics to understand where we were falling short at the back - both using the Data Hub and the Team Detailed statistics for the league.

The Data Hub suggests that our defence is rather passive. We make fewer blocks, fewer clearances and fewer tackles than our peers. And this is absolutely supported by the overall "defensive actions" chart which has us making 11.6% fewer defensive actions than the league average. But you have to consider that we keep the ball most than almost every other side in the league - second in the average possession table with 57%, so 14% more than the average. If we allow the opposition to have 14% less of the ball then it's only logical that we would be required to have fewer defensive actions.

But clearly that doesn't tell the full story, as the OPpDA shows that we are no better than mid-table in terms of defensive proactivity.

And when we combine that with the number of tackles that we're making, it's clear that there's scope for us to in the opposition's faces a little more. We've also made the 4th fewest fouls, have the 3rd fewest bookings and no reds in the league - obviously there are advantages to this but it's indicative of us being a soft-touch. All of which points me at two considerations: tactically instructing the players to get stuck in more, and considering aggression and strength for future defensive signings.

Yet considering those signings, I'm really not sure which positions we should be looking to improve. Usually when you're a season or so into a save you have a clear idea of the players you really don't fancy. But I'm relatively happy with almost all of my first-choice players and it's not immediately obvious how to select those three weakest positions to strengthen.

Statistically, there are no obvious weaknesses in the Data Hub. Only loanee Guus Baars is sub-average for headers won (and having watched back a few games that's mostly because of headers lost at attacking corners), only Cain Seedorf is sub-average in tackle success and I can't really figure out whether fewer blocks and clearances is a bad thing or indicative of our tactical set-up. And the defensive statistics view on the squad screen isn't a great deal of help either.

Ignoring Bensabouh, Liesdek and Mulder as they don't typically play in defensive roles, the only standout statistics there are Aktas' disproportionate tendency to lose possession and Candelaria's impressive record of just 0.77 team goals conceded per 90 minutes when he's on the pitch. At this point, I was getting a little stumped so I stopped by the Analyst Report within the Data Hub to see if there were particular areas from where we are conceding regularly.

So the flanks would appear to be a weak spot and this certainly chimes with my IJ test from watching back a handful of our high-conceding matches. But the numbers aren't so disproportionate as to indicate an Alexander-Arnold-style liability at the back. However, whilst I was there, I happened to notice this:

And I confess that I hadn't really picked up on this during the matches but we've conceded 12 goals in the final third of the first half, and 9 in the final third of the second half. That's 48% of our total goals conceded coming in the closing stages of each half. And that to be screams that we have a problem with Determination and / or Concentration. A quick check through the players who have played most minutes at the back would tend to support this - with at least three players having average at best attributes in this area (noting the imprecision of the restricted attributes view).

It could also indicate that I have not been smart enough at switching tactically in the closing stages of each half and there is something for me to look at. Typically I would only look at restricting the play towards the back end of the second half, but those 12 goals conceded between the 30th and 45th minutes... that's not a time I'll ordinarily make changes and perhaps I really should.

So after all of that, a couple of actions to take forward:

1. Future defensive signings should prioritise Aggression, Strength, Concentration and Determination (as well as my usual blind spot of Leadership)
2. Look to shut halves out from 30 minutes forwards

If anyone has spotted anything I've missed in all that, then I'm all ears / eyes 

[13th Man]

Are you finding the defense to be too passive in specific situations, or just overall?  It seems to be working quite well for you at the moment, and sometimes it can be good to keep shape, but obviously not at the expense of letting people play through you!

The end of half is certainly an issue, and the determination (an underrated attribute in my opinion) and concentration certainly play into that.

[SixPointer]

10 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Taking Stock

We've reached the short winter break and I thought it was an apt time to take stock - primarily aimed at understanding our short-comings and informing the summer's recruitment. Things have been going well and we remain very much in the promotion race. Having won the first period, we're guaranteed a playoff place but sneaking into top two would make that immaterial and get us into the top tier automatically.

Despite our lofty position, I feel like we're not quite performing at our max and I'm keen to see where the issues are - tactically or in terms of personnel.

My immediate focus is defensive. We're the joint-top scorers in the league and have failed to score in only 3 of the first 22 matches. Conversely, we have "only" the 5th best defence and have kept only 7 clean sheets, just under 1 in 3. That's really not good enough for me. We're not losing many games but we've drawn 9, with only 2 of those being goalless. So my logic is that a better defence in just 3 of those draws would give me an extra 6 points and comfortably top. So clearly defence is the focus.

So I went looking through all the available statistics to understand where we were falling short at the back - both using the Data Hub and the Team Detailed statistics for the league.

The Data Hub suggests that our defence is rather passive. We make fewer blocks, fewer clearances and fewer tackles than our peers. And this is absolutely supported by the overall "defensive actions" chart which has us making 11.6% fewer defensive actions than the league average. But you have to consider that we keep the ball most than almost every other side in the league - second in the average possession table with 57%, so 14% more than the average. If we allow the opposition to have 14% less of the ball then it's only logical that we would be required to have fewer defensive actions.

But clearly that doesn't tell the full story, as the OPpDA shows that we are no better than mid-table in terms of defensive proactivity.

And when we combine that with the number of tackles that we're making, it's clear that there's scope for us to in the opposition's faces a little more. We've also made the 4th fewest fouls, have the 3rd fewest bookings and no reds in the league - obviously there are advantages to this but it's indicative of us being a soft-touch. All of which points me at two considerations: tactically instructing the players to get stuck in more, and considering aggression and strength for future defensive signings.

Yet considering those signings, I'm really not sure which positions we should be looking to improve. Usually when you're a season or so into a save you have a clear idea of the players you really don't fancy. But I'm relatively happy with almost all of my first-choice players and it's not immediately obvious how to select those three weakest positions to strengthen.

Statistically, there are no obvious weaknesses in the Data Hub. Only loanee Guus Baars is sub-average for headers won (and having watched back a few games that's mostly because of headers lost at attacking corners), only Cain Seedorf is sub-average in tackle success and I can't really figure out whether fewer blocks and clearances is a bad thing or indicative of our tactical set-up. And the defensive statistics view on the squad screen isn't a great deal of help either.

Ignoring Bensabouh, Liesdek and Mulder as they don't typically play in defensive roles, the only standout statistics there are Aktas' disproportionate tendency to lose possession and Candelaria's impressive record of just 0.77 team goals conceded per 90 minutes when he's on the pitch. At this point, I was getting a little stumped so I stopped by the Analyst Report within the Data Hub to see if there were particular areas from where we are conceding regularly.

So the flanks would appear to be a weak spot and this certainly chimes with my IJ test from watching back a handful of our high-conceding matches. But the numbers aren't so disproportionate as to indicate an Alexander-Arnold-style liability at the back. However, whilst I was there, I happened to notice this:

And I confess that I hadn't really picked up on this during the matches but we've conceded 12 goals in the final third of the first half, and 9 in the final third of the second half. That's 48% of our total goals conceded coming in the closing stages of each half. And that to be screams that we have a problem with Determination and / or Concentration. A quick check through the players who have played most minutes at the back would tend to support this - with at least three players having average at best attributes in this area (noting the imprecision of the restricted attributes view).

It could also indicate that I have not been smart enough at switching tactically in the closing stages of each half and there is something for me to look at. Typically I would only look at restricting the play towards the back end of the second half, but those 12 goals conceded between the 30th and 45th minutes... that's not a time I'll ordinarily make changes and perhaps I really should.

So after all of that, a couple of actions to take forward:

1. Future defensive signings should prioritise Aggression, Strength, Concentration and Determination (as well as my usual blind spot of Leadership)
2. Look to shut halves out from 30 minutes forwards

If anyone has spotted anything I've missed in all that, then I'm all ears / eyes 

Great investigation shrew! Are you asking the team to stop crosses? Wonder if that would help you in terms of being passive out wide? 

[SteinkelssonFM]

Love the post and wanted to take a deep dive to see if I can help out as you can see from the below that we are operating in similar spaces in terms of defensive outputs.

The one difference for me is that I have two defenders performing above average in relation to tackles attempted and won ratio, both of these operate down the flank and both have the tackle harder player instruiction.

I was hoping the report would show that we weren't conceding as many chances down the flan. However as you can see for some strange reason it looks as if mu reports aren't working which is going to be a massive pain in the backside for me when trying to break things down in my own save! 

I think you have also managed to hit the nail on the head in terms of your findings, this is why I love the data hub and also seeing how others use it to come to their own conclusions. 

[Shrewnaldo]

16 hours ago, 13th Man said:

Are you finding the defense to be too passive in specific situations, or just overall?  It seems to be working quite well for you at the moment, and sometimes it can be good to keep shape, but obviously not at the expense of letting people play through you!

The end of half is certainly an issue, and the determination (an underrated attribute in my opinion) and concentration certainly play into that.

I tend to find that we stand off a lot in wide areas. Through the middle, I tend to find it's more about the centre backs being pulled out of position and a complete failure from the players either side of them to narrow the gap - I don't know if that's down to the ME or the sub-standard quality of my defenders, to be fair. @SixPointer has an interesting suggestion though...

15 hours ago, SixPointer said:

Great investigation shrew! Are you asking the team to stop crosses? Wonder if that would help you in terms of being passive out wide? 

... I am not but that does sound like a good shout. It is specifically in wide areas where I'm finding that we stand off the crosser far too much. Will definitely give that a shot.

14 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Love the post and wanted to take a deep dive to see if I can help out as you can see from the below that we are operating in similar spaces in terms of defensive outputs.

The one difference for me is that I have two defenders performing above average in relation to tackles attempted and won ratio, both of these operate down the flank and both have the tackle harder player instruiction.

I was hoping the report would show that we weren't conceding as many chances down the flan. However as you can see for some strange reason it looks as if mu reports aren't working which is going to be a massive pain in the backside for me when trying to break things down in my own save! 

I think you have also managed to hit the nail on the head in terms of your findings, this is why I love the data hub and also seeing how others use it to come to their own conclusions. 

As I tweeted you, you need to hit that second dropdown next to "all competitions" and re-select the maximum number of matches. The pitch graphic will then reset. Just another idiosyncrasy in the bug-riddled fun-fest that FM is these days. I tend to use OIs to target the wide players and hadn't really considered "tackle harder" as an option until I saw our lack of fouls... double-edged sword though because there's an obvious advantage to not giving up free-kicks in dangerous areas.

[SixPointer]

11 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

I tend to find that we stand off a lot in wide areas. Through the middle, I tend to find it's more about the centre backs being pulled out of position and a complete failure from the players either side of them to narrow the gap - I don't know if that's down to the ME or the sub-standard quality of my defenders, to be fair. @SixPointer has an interesting suggestion though...

... I am not but that does sound like a good shout. It is specifically in wide areas where I'm finding that we stand off the crosser far too much. Will definitely give that a shot.

As I tweeted you, you need to hit that second dropdown next to "all competitions" and re-select the maximum number of matches. The pitch graphic will then reset. Just another idiosyncrasy in the bug-riddled fun-fest that FM is these days. I tend to use OIs to target the wide players and hadn't really considered "tackle harder" as an option until I saw our lack of fouls... double-edged sword though because there's an obvious advantage to not giving up free-kicks in dangerous areas.

Hopefully stopping crossing does the job. For me that’s exactly what I want the instruction to do. I haven’t had very much game time at all since the release, but surely that’s why it’s been added. Could also use OI’s to tack harder on the players on the flanks. But I would be interested to see if the stopping crosses worked first.

my tactical plan is more about off the ball this year moving away from my total football so I really hope these instructions make a difference 

[Shrewnaldo]

Brief update as we come to the closing stages of the 2023-24 season. We're currently in second and set to take an automatic promotion spot behind leaders Waalwijk.

The final 5 games, though, are tough. In one way, it's good because it means that promotion is entirely in our own hands, but on the other hand we're left with some of the toughest games of the season:

• PEC Zwolle (H) - 4th; lost 3-1 in the first fixture
• Jong PSV (H) - 7th; 2-2
• NAC Breda (A) - 5th; 1-0 win
• Waalwijk (H) - 1st; 1-1
• Dordrecht (A) - 9th; 1-1

That's quite the run-in and we're not in sparkling form. We had our usual March slump, winning just one of the five games in the month - but have hopefully recovered to win two of the last three with a hugely dominant 3-1 win over Almere.

The other sides also have mixed run-ins. Waalwijk need to visit Jong AJax and play us, but have three soft games outside that and I expect to cruise to the title. PEC Zwolle have a trip to Volendam and host Roda, plus our game and will be our biggest impediment to second. Jong Ajax, of course, can't be promoted so are immaterial to this discussion, whilst 7 points just feels like too big a gap back to Breda et al.

So squeaky bum time basically.

[thefmveteran]

Going strong so far mate. 

[Shrewnaldo]

And we're up

[keeper#1]

Excellent work!

[_Ben_]

Congrats Shrew! Ahead of plan or on target? Looking forward to seeing how you recruit. 

[SteinkelssonFM]

Congratulations buddy, what will the priority be for next season in terms of recruitment? I am keen to see how those defensive outputs compare given the increase in quality of opposition. 

[SixPointer]

Excellent stuff shrew! Vital transfer window coming up to ensure safety. 

[Shrewnaldo]

Thank you all @keeper#1 @_Ben_ @MattyLewis11 @SixPointer

@_Ben_ - at least one season ahead of target. The plan was to be in the Eredivisie for 2026, for the 63+63 link with the club's founding. This will put us there in 2024/25, so we either need to stay up for the first half of 2026 - or get relegated and bounce straight back for the second half

@MattyLewis11 - I'm really not sure what the priorities are. Intuitively, I'm leaning towards defensive strengthening - in goal and across the back four. We seem to be ok for scoring, but our defence hasn't exactly been impenetrable even in the second tier so that would tend to be the obvious place to go. I'll have a deeper look later though

I am glad that I took the gamble on the wider scouting range for this season. It *should* let me find some players in the weaker leagues that can do a job in the relegation battle. Players from the likes of Poland or Romania, who would not necessarily move to us in the Eerste Divisie but will fancy a shot at the top tier. Should work out ok.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Shrewnaldo

[_Ben_]

3 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

@_Ben_ - at least one season ahead of target. The plan was to be in the Eredivisie for 2026, for the 63+63 link with the club's founding. This will put us there in 2024/25, so we either need to stay up for the first half of 2026 - or get relegated and bounce straight back for the second half

I back you to stay up!

[Hoodmatty]

really enjoyed reading this over last day or so ! Interesting to see how low your budget is been such a small club.

[Shrewnaldo]

23 minutes ago, _Ben_ said:

I back you to stay up!

Genuinely think this might be harder than staying up with Bristol City that first season. And that was a close-run thing

23 minutes ago, Hoodmatty said:

really enjoyed reading this over last day or so ! Interesting to see how low your budget is been such a small club.

Thanks. Budget for next season is £500k transfer and £52,500 a week for wages... so not exactly generous. But we had the third lowest wage budget this year (751k for the year) and went up so you never know.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Shrewnaldo

[Shrewnaldo]

May 2024 - World News

As part of my effort to immerse myself in the unique gameworld a little more, I'm trying to use these posts to familiarise myself with events in the wide world of football...

• Little surprise in the domestic leagues across Europe as Man City, Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern, Ajax, Celtic and Red Bull Salzburg all win their respective leagues at a canter. Real and PSG both won their titles by 18 points...
• Manchester United, now managed by Diego Simeone, continue to struggle - finishing 7th in the Premier League; although Newcastle have still failed to break into the top four despite making some very smart signings including a midfield three of Koopmeiners, de Roon and Laimer (and Scott McTominay on the bench)
• Serie A continues to be the most competitive league in Europe with Juve winning last year, and Vincenzo Montella's Roma this.
• Meanwhile Bayern won another Champions League, Man City the defeated finalists and still unable to take that ultimate prize. West Ham won the Europa League, defeating Sporting Club de Portugal on penalties; and Spurs won the Europa Conference where København were the surprise package but falling at the final hurdle
• Closer to home, as I said Ajax won the Eredivisie rather easily, with a 6-point gap to PSV, then a further 3 points to Feyenoord and Utrecht taking the final Champions League spot a massive 17 points behind our parent club. AZ and Heerenveen took the Europa League spots whilst Nijmegen surprisingly won the Europa Conf playoff.
• Passing us on their way down will be VVV Venlo and Willem II, who went up last season, and Sparta Rotterdam - their squads will be perused for thieving opportunities
• The gap to the top sides is massive - Ajax spent £58m last year on wages, £28m more than PSV and then falling off to 7th-highest spenders Heerenveen with a measly £5.8m. Incidentally, our £52k per week wage budget for next year will be less than Venlo's relegation-achieving spend and nearly half Willem II's...
• There haven't been any really interesting managerial moves in the Netherlands, at least not as interesting as Jurgen Klinsmann taking over at Aberdeen... 

 

[SteinkelssonFM]

8 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Real and PSG both won their titles by 18 points...

Real looking just as dominant in my save...enjoyed the game world update, it is nice to see how things play out in others saves and any outliers etc. 

[Deisler26]

How are my RKC boys doing?

[Shrewnaldo]

2 hours ago, Deisler26 said:

How are my RKC boys doing?

They came up with me, finishing third but avoiding the playoffs thanks to the enormous cheats that are Jong Ajax taking the title. They were actually well clear at the top but bottled it massively, taking only 9 points from the last 33 available. They've made a couple of decent signings including former Chelsea midfielder Danilo Pantic, but I'd fear for them this season. I'll certainly be targetting them as one of the few opportunities for points

[Shrewnaldo]

Are we ready?

Depends. Ready for what? Getting our backsides handed to us every week? Probably.

Last season was a phenomenal success. We started as the best team in the league and, ignoring the ability of Jong Ajax to pull in ringers like Francisco Conceição, ended as the best team. At no point across the entire campaign were we lower than third. In truth, it would have been an absolute travesty had we not gone up.

The success was largely founded on our attacking ability - top scorers in the league and drawing a blank in only 6 matches. Much of that success relied on the goals of Christos Giousis, swiftly becoming a favourite from the left, and advanced forward Rein Smit. The latter has eventually settled the question on the striker role for me - intuitively I would prefer a creative player, dropping off the line and creating space for others then using their passing ability to find the runners. But Smit has shown that using a player on the shoulder, and instead looking to the midfield for those through balls, is the way forward. Not only is he personally the top (non-penalty) scorer in the team but the team as a whole scores more (1.78 per 90) when he's in the team than any other regular starter. I'm using Houweling, as the 'keeper in all but 2 matches, as the overall team average goals per 90 at 1.57 - so Smit's impact in increasing that to 1.78 is impressive.

Defensively, we weren't quite so impressive - hence the earlier post on working out some of our issues. My tactical changes mid-match certainly helped as we went through January and February conceding only a single goal per month, before the usual March slump and then end of season scramble.

Regardless, I feel like our defensive personnel were barely Eerste Divisie quality, and certainly were going to struggle in the Eredivisie and so it was here that I focused most of our recruitment. I've spent the best part of two evenings going through the statistics of the leagues available to me through our scouting package, getting scout reports, watching AI matches where available and generally having a great time. Through all that, we've ended up with 7 key first-team signings.

I moved early to secure de Waal, who was on loan at AFO in our league and smashing it - scoring at over 1 in 2, with reasonable creativity stats and, most crucially, the ability to play a number of positions across the front 5 AND be good enough for a squad role in the Eredivisie if, as was eventually confirmed, we were to go up.

I had to wait until the end of the season to arrange the rest. The expanded scouting range, thanks to re-directing the season's transfer budget, was great and had provided me with all sorts of tasty options but hardly any of them fancied a move to a team predicted to be at the bottom end of the Dutch second tier. But a team getting battered off Ajax and PSV every other week? Why not. At this stage, I should mention that I cancelled our affiliate link with Feyenoord. Whilst the three loans had helped in the promotion season, I just don't like the idea of doing that when we're in the same league.

Promotion had also loosened the purse strings somewhat - with our wage budget effectively doubling from ~£25k a week to £52k a week. And of course this also increased the maximum amount we could pay an individual - certainly more than the £1100 a week top-earners Bensabouh and Oude Kotte received last term. Aiming for a squad of 25, I figured that I could get 12-15 back-ups of sufficient quality for around £1000 a week average. This would leave me with a good £35k a week for the first 11 and hence I could afford an average of around £3k per player.

Given the above, I started from the back and prioritised centre backs first and foremost. Searching for players from the scouted leagues with >900 minutes and a combination of tackle and header success ratio >85% turned out this beauty.

Granted he was only playing in the Romanian second tier, so some "quality adjustment" had to be accounted for, but my scouts also loved him - advising that he was consistent and lacked only technique. I'd also kept a save from the end of season 1, when Chindris' club UTA Arad had been in the Romanian top tier, and his statistical output, even in a relegated club, was still excellent.

Alongside him I went with Luca Meisl, signed from the Belgian second tier, where I was convinced by an attempt to look at something akin to the Smit impact above - the Austrian's presence on the pitch had reduced his team's goals conceded by 90 by 25%. Using the goalkeeper's performance as the baseline, Beerschot conceded 0.62 goals per 90, when Meisl played his 1200 minutes, they'd conceded at a rate of just 0.46. It's a bit of an experimental one but, knowing that Meisl ticked my other statistical thresholds AND knowing him a little because he's Austrian, I thought it a punt worth taking. Sadly, it meant compromising on my previous aim for more aggressive players but you can't have everything.

Into midfield, I took less of a punt. Knowing that loanee Chabrol-Touré was returning to Feyenoord, we needed at least one addition in the middle. Further, having been convinced that our 9 would play on the shoulder and the two MCs need to be proper ball-players, I wanted an improvement on Philippe van Arnhem too. The mezzala had signed from amateur football last summer and, for a free transfer, had performed admirably but was some way off the creativity of his midfield partners. Ordering by chances created per 90, you can see the issue:

So I went looking for creative midfielders, but not just open-play creativity. Contrary to board and fan expectations, we'd been promoted as top scorers whilst completely failing to exploit set pieces. Like, at all. We'd scored from a single corner and two indirect free-kicks across 38 league games. Suspecting that we'll find it more difficult to create from open play in the Eredivisie, I was keen to improve our set-piece ability and figured new CMs could do the job.

Which is why I was really pleased to convince Richard Ledezma to join.

He'd started 35 games for Jong PSV in the second tier, assisting 9 times and with an xA/90 of 0.2. He'd played really well against us and I'd asked the scouts to take a look. They liked what they saw and highlighted that his contract was expiring at the end of the season - indeed that he intended to seek options elsewhere in search of first-team football. His stats stood up really well, with 3.61 progressive passes per 90, and ~1.8 set piece key passes per 90 which isn't the highest in the league but was the best of those players who also ticked my other requirements. Lastly, the addition of a trait to 'tries killer balls often' sold me. I like to build from the back and play through the lines. The ability to have that link player pick an unlocking pass for the 9 or a midfield runner... invaluable.

And speaking of traits, it's what finally convinced me on Adamczyk.

Playing at Polish Ekstraklasa side Chrobry, I'd initially gone to see a couple of their matches to watch centre back Dawid Szymonowicz. But Adamczyk shone as a number 10, completely dominating their relegation clash against fellow strugglers Cracovia. He'd played as a 10 but very much in the sort of positions I'd expect our CM(A) to exploit and from which I'd expect him to make these sorts of "key passes" for the 9.

More than 1.2 dribbles per 90 from a central position, 0.36 chances created per 90 for a relegation threatened club and revealed by scouting to consistent and love big matches... why yes, yes please.

Those were the four positions that I was really keen to secure, providing the central quality that we were lacking. The other key priority was in goal where Houweling was ok, but just left a lot to be desired. According to the statistics, he was maybe the 6 or 7th best goalkeeper in the Eerste Divisie but I still don't know how much to trust goalkeeping statistics. In a number of games, I felt like he'd cost us with some weak attempts at save and I never like 'keepers who don't have good positioning. Sadly, none of the options I'd identified through scouting were keen - we got closest with Sibenik goalie Lovre Rogic who looks fantastic, but sadly he chose to join Cremonese instead.

So I was left trying to pick up trialists and relying on a combination of coach reports and friendlies judge them by. This makes the threshold quite high, so after failed trials for a host of goalies including Bailey Peacock-Farrel and Neil Etheridge, former Wycombe goalkeeper Maksymilian Stryjek got the nod. Which leaves us with the following squad depth:

Obviously this is utilising the same 4-3-3 system and I plan to stick to that as the base case. It'll definitely get amended in the tougher games, perhaps even shifting to a 4-4-1-1 so we can keep two deeper midfielders along with the IWBs, but that's for another time.

I'm painfully aware that we're still short of quality in some key areas but I didn't want to make wholesale changes and lose all our squad cohesion. So I prioritised the weakest areas through the spine and know that I'll need some time to find options for the more specialist roles - IWB and particularly the regista. I am, however, really pleased with our recruitment and feeling quite optimistic for the new campaign. At least I was until I checked the comparison graphs... 

Across the 36 attributes in the Physical, Mental and Technical tabs, we are rock bottom in 28 of them. Only in Jumping, Fitness, Aggression, Bravery, Determination, Corners, Throw-ins (yay) and Tackling are we not bottom - and even for those 8 we are below average.

This. Is. Going. To. Be. Tough.

[Deisler26]

1 minute ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Are we ready?

Depends. Ready for what? Getting our backsides handed to us every week? Probably.

Last season was a phenomenal success. We started as the best team in the league and, ignoring the ability of Jong Ajax to pull in ringers like Francisco Conceição, ended as the best team. At no point across the entire campaign were we lower than third. In truth, it would have been an absolute travesty had we not gone up.

The success was largely founded on our attacking ability - top scorers in the league and drawing a blank in only 6 matches. Much of that success relied on the goals of Christos Giousis, swiftly becoming a favourite from the left, and advanced forward Rein Smit. The latter has eventually settled the question on the striker role for me - intuitively I would prefer a creative player, dropping off the line and creating space for others then using their passing ability to find the runners. But Smit has shown that using a player on the shoulder, and instead looking to the midfield for those through balls, is the way forward. Not only is he personally the top (non-penalty) scorer in the team but the team as a whole scores more (1.78 per 90) when he's in the team than any other regular starter. I'm using Houweling, as the 'keeper in all but 2 matches, as the overall team average goals per 90 at 1.57 - so Smit's impact in increasing that to 1.78 is impressive.

Defensively, we weren't quite so impressive - hence the earlier post on working out some of our issues. My tactical changes mid-match certainly helped as we went through January and February conceding only a single goal per month, before the usual March slump and then end of season scramble.

Regardless, I feel like our defensive personnel were barely Eerste Divisie quality, and certainly were going to struggle in the Eredivisie and so it was here that I focused most of our recruitment. I've spent the best part of two evenings going through the statistics of the leagues available to me through our scouting package, getting scout reports, watching AI matches where available and generally having a great time. Through all that, we've ended up with 7 key first-team signings.

I moved early to secure de Waal, who was on loan at AFO in our league and smashing it - scoring at over 1 in 2, with reasonable creativity stats and, most crucially, the ability to play a number of positions across the front 5 AND be good enough for a squad role in the Eredivisie if, as was eventually confirmed, we were to go up.

I had to wait until the end of the season to arrange the rest. The expanded scouting range, thanks to re-directing the season's transfer budget, was great and had provided me with all sorts of tasty options but hardly any of them fancied a move to a team predicted to be at the bottom end of the Dutch second tier. But a team getting battered off Ajax and PSV every other week? Why not. At this stage, I should mention that I cancelled our affiliate link with Feyenoord. Whilst the three loans had helped in the promotion season, I just don't like the idea of doing that when we're in the same league.

Promotion had also loosened the purse strings somewhat - with our wage budget effectively doubling from ~£25k a week to £52k a week. And of course this also increased the maximum amount we could pay an individual - certainly more than the £1100 a week top-earners Bensabouh and Oude Kotte received last term. Aiming for a squad of 25, I figured that I could get 12-15 back-ups of sufficient quality for around £1000 a week average. This would leave me with a good £35k a week for the first 11 and hence I could afford an average of around £3k per player.

Given the above, I started from the back and prioritised centre backs first and foremost. Searching for players from the scouted leagues with >900 minutes and a combination of tackle and header success ratio >85% turned out this beauty.

Granted he was only playing in the Romanian second tier, so some "quality adjustment" had to be accounted for, but my scouts also loved him - advising that he was consistent and lacked only technique. I'd also kept a save from the end of season 1, when Chindris' club UTA Arad had been in the Romanian top tier, and his statistical output, even in a relegated club, was still excellent.

Alongside him I went with Luca Meisl, signed from the Belgian second tier, where I was convinced by an attempt to look at something akin to the Smit impact above - the Austrian's presence on the pitch had reduced his team's goals conceded by 90 by 25%. Using the goalkeeper's performance as the baseline, Beerschot conceded 0.62 goals per 90, when Meisl played his 1200 minutes, they'd conceded at a rate of just 0.46. It's a bit of an experimental one but, knowing that Meisl ticked my other statistical thresholds AND knowing him a little because he's Austrian, I thought it a punt worth taking. Sadly, it meant compromising on my previous aim for more aggressive players but you can't have everything.

Into midfield, I took less of a punt. Knowing that loanee Chabrol-Touré was returning to Feyenoord, we needed at least one addition in the middle. Further, having been convinced that our 9 would play on the shoulder and the two MCs need to be proper ball-players, I wanted an improvement on Philippe van Arnhem too. The mezzala had signed from amateur football last summer and, for a free transfer, had performed admirably but was some way off the creativity of his midfield partners. Ordering by chances created per 90, you can see the issue:

So I went looking for creative midfielders, but not just open-play creativity. Contrary to board and fan expectations, we'd been promoted as top scorers whilst completely failing to exploit set pieces. Like, at all. We'd scored from a single corner and two indirect free-kicks across 38 league games. Suspecting that we'll find it more difficult to create from open play in the Eredivisie, I was keen to improve our set-piece ability and figured new CMs could do the job.

Which is why I was really pleased to convince Richard Ledezma to join.

He'd started 35 games for Jong PSV in the second tier, assisting 9 times and with an xA/90 of 0.2. He'd played really well against us and I'd asked the scouts to take a look. They liked what they saw and highlighted that his contract was expiring at the end of the season - indeed that he intended to seek options elsewhere in search of first-team football. His stats stood up really well, with 3.61 progressive passes per 90, and ~1.8 set piece key passes per 90 which isn't the highest in the league but was the best of those players who also ticked my other requirements. Lastly, the addition of a trait to 'tries killer balls often' sold me. I like to build from the back and play through the lines. The ability to have that link player pick an unlocking pass for the 9 or a midfield runner... invaluable.

And speaking of traits, it's what finally convinced me on Adamczyk.

Playing at Polish Ekstraklasa side Chrobry, I'd initially gone to see a couple of their matches to watch centre back Dawid Szymonowicz. But Adamczyk shone as a number 10, completely dominating their relegation clash against fellow strugglers Cracovia. He'd played as a 10 but very much in the sort of positions I'd expect our CM(A) to exploit and from which I'd expect him to make these sorts of "key passes" for the 9.

More than 1.2 dribbles per 90 from a central position, 0.36 chances created per 90 for a relegation threatened club and revealed by scouting to consistent and love big matches... why yes, yes please.

Those were the four positions that I was really keen to secure, providing the central quality that we were lacking. The other key priority was in goal where Houweling was ok, but just left a lot to be desired. According to the statistics, he was maybe the 6 or 7th best goalkeeper in the Eerste Divisie but I still don't know how much to trust goalkeeping statistics. In a number of games, I felt like he'd cost us with some weak attempts at save and I never like 'keepers who don't have good positioning. Sadly, none of the options I'd identified through scouting were keen - we got closest with Sibenik goalie Lovre Rogic who looks fantastic, but sadly he chose to join Cremonese instead.

So I was left trying to pick up trialists and relying on a combination of coach reports and friendlies judge them by. This makes the threshold quite high, so after failed trials for a host of goalies including Bailey Peacock-Farrel and Neil Etheridge, former Wycombe goalkeeper Maksymilian Stryjek got the nod. Which leaves us with the following squad depth:

Obviously this is utilising the same 4-3-3 system and I plan to stick to that as the base case. It'll definitely get amended in the tougher games, perhaps even shifting to a 4-4-1-1 so we can keep two deeper midfielders along with the IWBs, but that's for another time.

I'm painfully aware that we're still short of quality in some key areas but I didn't want to make wholesale changes and lose all our squad cohesion. So I prioritised the weakest areas through the spine and know that I'll need some time to find options for the more specialist roles - IWB and particularly the regista. I am, however, really pleased with our recruitment and feeling quite optimistic for the new campaign. At least I was until I checked the comparison graphs... 

Across the 36 attributes in the Physical, Mental and Technical tabs, we are rock bottom in 28 of them. Only in Jumping, Fitness, Aggression, Bravery, Determination, Corners, Throw-ins (yay) and Tackling are we not bottom - and even for those 8 we are below average.

This. Is. Going. To. Be. Tough.

PvA is an ex-RKC player and was pretty good from my recollection. Hope you manage to stay up!

[13th Man]

Congrats on promotion!
Good call, I think, balancing between cohesion and improving. Always good to improve the defense after promotion, especially if you were good at attacking.

There’s always the question of whether the attack will still be effective against the higher quality of defenders, but you can’t go wrong with improving at the back.

[FM Eire]

I've been keeping up with this over the last week or so and I'm learning loads as always Shrew. I'm also trying to piece my way through Statman and Robins which is also beautiful work. Good luck in the top tier, hope those defensive additions do the business for you! 

[Shrewnaldo]

Thanks all, appreciated.

Forgot to post the new touchline threads, upgraded for our promotion to the Eredivise and chosen by my daughter - Shrewnaldinha.

[SixPointer]

Solid recruitment as ever shrew  

[SteinkelssonFM]

Looking forward to seeing how the new recruits establish themselves within the team, especially those new centre-backs.

I have no doubts that Richard Ledezma will develop into a key player for you, he was slowly being integrated into my PSV side, in one of many saves. 

Your daughter has picked a solid outfit, making a slight shift to a more formal look with her choice of attire.

[_Ben_]

Recruitment looks spot on! You've identified the statistical areas and taken well thought-out risks. If you get 50% conversion ratio of these lads, you'll be flying but, given your track record, I think you'll get more than that. I agree with @MattyLewis11 that Ledezma looks like a top player although, to nitpick, I'd like my attacking players to be less reliant on one foot, unless they have a trait where they use the outside, move the ball to their strong foot etc, but that's just personal preference and you may already be thinking on acting upon it.

[danielgear]

Cracking work Shrew, what tweaks have you made tactically now you’ve gone from one of the strongest teams in the league to one of if not the weakest? 

[youthintake]

On 11/11/2022 at 11:33, Shrewnaldo said:

So instead I'm going to do something I've never done before and transfer my wage budget into the scouting budget. This will give me a £276k scouting budget and allow me to improve our scouting range to 'Europe'. Even if I do this for just one season, I can get my scouts out around the lower reputation leagues gathering knowledge about as many players as possible - which I can then feed into my statistical views and, come the end of the year, bring in the 3 or 4 players I think we'll need to take that extra step towards promotion.

And once we're promoted, we should naturally extend our scouting range anyway. The only gamble is the obvious one that I need those transfer funds - but having trimmed the squad to a total of 30 players and allowed the high earners like Plet and Helmer to leave, our wage outlay is a mere 50% of the £26k per week allowed. So worst case scenario - I just re-assign some of that wage budget into the transfer budget and bring in an emergency signing.

This all makes a lot of sense to me and I think represents a pretty minimal gamble. Given the game style, I need scouting knowledge more than anything right now. The board need us to finish mid-table only and I'm extremely confident that we'll meet that target comfortably with the squad at my disposal. Playoffs are my aim - preferably through winning one of the stages. Playoffs and a couple of statistical targets.

 

 

This is the same approach I had to take while in Sweden. It's definitely a gamble and I'm paying for it right now. I began scouting tons of players after being promoted. I then realized that I needed to stop scouting as I was going to over spend and even after cancelling the reports I am now over the scouting budget by -£56k haha

I spent £28k in the first season in the 4th tier. Now in the 3rd tier, I've spent £107k with 9 matches left in the season. Hope you don't make the same mistake that I've made. I guess the only good thing that came about is that I now have lots of player scouted once we're promoted to the 2nd tier. 

[Shrewnaldo]

13 hours ago, MattyLewis11 said:

Looking forward to seeing how the new recruits establish themselves within the team, especially those new centre-backs.

I have no doubts that Richard Ledezma will develop into a key player for you, he was slowly being integrated into my PSV side, in one of many saves. 

Your daughter has picked a solid outfit, making a slight shift to a more formal look with her choice of attire.

Yeah, the plan was to get some smarter threads as we moved up in the world so she was happy to pick the outfit and then spent about 40 minutes picking the colours.

11 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

Recruitment looks spot on! You've identified the statistical areas and taken well thought-out risks. If you get 50% conversion ratio of these lads, you'll be flying but, given your track record, I think you'll get more than that. I agree with @MattyLewis11 that Ledezma looks like a top player although, to nitpick, I'd like my attacking players to be less reliant on one foot, unless they have a trait where they use the outside, move the ball to their strong foot etc, but that's just personal preference and you may already be thinking on acting upon it.

Funny you should mention that as I'd usually play the mezzala, his chosen role, on the left to interface with Giousis on the left, who prefers his right foot. But with Ledezma being right-footed, I find that he is a bit limited in going outside and slows the play down as he turns inside onto his stronger foot. So I'm both thinking of swapping his side - but then losing the benefit of overlapping Giousis with the mezzala - and training his weaker foot.

4 hours ago, danielgear said:

Cracking work Shrew, what tweaks have you made tactically now you’ve gone from one of the strongest teams in the league to one of if not the weakest? 

Struggling a little bit, to be honest. We've had some great results - both beating some of the weaker sides and a smash-and-grab against Ajax. I've been switching between my standard 4-3-3 that we used last year and switching to a 4-4-1-1 against the big boys. The latter is quite a different approach - keeping two midfielders quite deep and looking to play on the break to a 10, who then plays in the 9. But it's very, very conservative and is only really intended as damage control against the big 3. 

I'm more concerned about my difficulty in switching up the 4-3-3. In some games, we've just been hopeless - not even at the races. Probably to be expected given our lack of quality, to be fair.

1 hour ago, youthintake said:

This is the same approach I had to take while in Sweden. It's definitely a gamble and I'm paying for it right now. I began scouting tons of players after being promoted. I then realized that I needed to stop scouting as I was going to over spend and even after cancelling the reports I am now over the scouting budget by -£56k haha

I spent £28k in the first season in the 4th tier. Now in the 3rd tier, I've spent £107k with 9 matches left in the season. Hope you don't make the same mistake that I've made. I guess the only good thing that came about is that I now have lots of player scouted once we're promoted to the 2nd tier. 

Yeah I checked that this year because I was disappointed that our scouting budget hadn't been increased as much as I'd hoped. But I just ended up doing the same again and sticking ~£200k from the transfer budget into scouting again.

[Deisler26]

On 19/11/2022 at 22:43, Shrewnaldo said:

Thanks all, appreciated.

Forgot to post the new touchline threads, upgraded for our promotion to the Eredivise and chosen by my daughter - Shrewnaldinha.

Like a 70's legend, including chain smoking lol

[Shrewnaldo]

6 hours ago, Deisler26 said:

Like a 70's legend, including chain smoking lol

I mean she's only 8, so I'm hoping she's not doing much chain-smoking... 

[Deisler26]

2 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

I mean she's only 8, so I'm hoping she's not doing much chain-smoking... 

it is the Netherlands…

[Shrewnaldo]

I should probably have done a half-season update by now but I'm having too much fun playing so just cracking on. However, prompted by some thoughts about whether I was changing enough tactically to improve my defence (I wasn't) and then by a long-term injury to the vital Bensabouh, who had previously been first-choice regista, I've switched it up tactically. It's drastically improved the defence and we're starting to get some really pleasing offensive results out of it, in ways that are even more pleasing that the 4-3-3.

Fans of Shrew, all none of you, will not be surprised to learn that one area of indecision remains and that the indecision is centred on the role of the striker. I say indecision but I basically know what I want to do - so perhaps uncertainty is a better word for it. Long story short, I thought I'd test my assumptions by opening it to the floor.

So, good people of the SI forums' Game Updates sub-forum, tell me what sort of 9 you'd use to complement this:

[SixPointer]

Depends, if you want him to stretch the defence to make space between the lines off the am’s or if you want him dragging defenders out so the am’s have space to attack behind. 

[_Ben_]

I’d use an AF(a) because you have five supporting players, who will get up and down and run at the defence, as per your instruction. You then have one attacking player who, with your forward, will be charged with sitting high and disrupting a defender to either create spaces of their own or for a runner. He’ll also lead the line to give you a chance for balls through the channels on the counter. You’ll probably be defending with 10 men but, for me, that’s a happy trade off!

That’s what I’d do knowing we have relatively similar tactical philosophies. 

[SteinkelssonFM]

I would agree with @_Ben_ on his choice, for me the AF (a) will occupy the defensive line and provide a threat in behind, which will occupy a defender for the AM (at) to hopefully exploit. 

Also knowing how successful the AF has been for me, paired with the fact you aren't operating with wide players in the AML/AMR strata you need the AF to be your main goalscoring threat rather than a role which plays as a creator. 

[phnompenhandy]

You counter and have wingbacks and AMs to supply the front man. He needs to be quick and finish off the chances. Oh, I'm saying exactly what _Ben_ has written above. That!