Predictable, predictable football manager

[Ryanaston]

I've been playing FM for years and there are a few things which happen so often, in every addition that they just feel scripted and predictable. Just wondering if anyone else notice the same common themes or if other people have other common issues which they find so repetitive it has to be more than coincidence

The two that come to mind for me are:

1) No matter how well i'm doing in the league, i will always lose to the team at the bottom of the league, even if they've lost 10 in a row

2) Goalkeeper injury crisis: I know people complain about injuries and sometimes i get a lot in one season but i get on with it and don't let it bother me, but I know that if i have 2 keepers injured at the same time it will ALWAYS turn into a full blown GK injury crisis and my 3rd and 4th choice goalkeepers will inevitably soon be injured. I'm sure there must be something in the game code that just randomly decides you will have a gk injury crisis rather than it being coincidence.

I love FM but sometimes it sad that i've played it so long I often know what will happen next

[FrazT]

1. If you know that it is going to happen, what steps do you take as Manager to change your strategy to ensure that it doesnt happen the next time? It is not coded, it is down to how you and your team approach the game

2. If you know there is going to be a GK injury crisis, have you changed their training, got better physios or GK coaches, reduced the intensity of their training etc. Again, it is not coded in any way

[WayneRomney]

1. If you play FM long enough, it will become predictable. However, this point is clearly a tactical issue. Tweak your tactic just a little bit (look at mentality and d-line) and you'll see results.

2. We can find a lot of examples of this IRL. Look at Man Utd now. Donald Love is a regular starter for instance. In FM terms I'd say he's on CA ~110. This is not GK related, but still. (I have never had any GK issues in FM16).

Regarding your first point, I love it that this can happen frequently. I don't want to sit generically and just press the space bar and continue my game all season long. The tactical aspect of FM have greatly improved this year, IMO.

Edit: For me, the predictability is in the outcome of certain games. For instance, if you have assembled a potent team and a good tactic with, let's say Villarreal. Despite dominance in almost every area, they still manage to grind out a result, from a corner or free kick or something. You end up with 4 CCC and they 0, but you lose. This is my idea of predictable FM.

[JWVG]

1) No matter how well i'm doing in the league, i will always lose to the team at the bottom of the league, even if they've lost 10 in a row

Just lost 0-5 at home to the 24th, of course they drew 1 and lost 9 before that. I knew this was going to happen!

[Cougar2010]

Just lost 0-5 at home to the 24th, of course they drew 1 and lost 9 before that. I knew this was going to happen!

and yet you didn't adapt either before or during the match to the different approach of your opponents.

Whose fault is that?

[JWVG]

and yet you didn't adapt either before or during the match to the different approach of your opponents.

Whose fault is that?

Your post makes no sense to me.

[Cougar2010]

Your post makes no sense to me.

Well if you don't understand it that indicates an issue with how you approach matches.

What factors do you think you should consider when choosing your team & tactics?

[Marathon Dress Week]

and yet you didn't adapt either before or during the match to the different approach of your opponents.

Whose fault is that?

What are you basing that on - how do you know he didn't make changes?

[Cougar2010]

What are you basing that on - how do you know he didn't make changes?

Experience & ability to read between the lines.

But yes I should maybe have phrased it slightly differently, he didn't adapt properly/correctly. Losing by an odd goal can be unlucky, losing 5-0 points to something else with tactical choices and managing the mentality of his squad the main factors.

[Guest]

There does seem to be more to it but as JWVG hasn't replied it will be impossible to advance from a point of speculation, probably worth everyone holding back any further comments until they provide more information on how they approached that match.

[Cardiovascular]

If you were on a 5 match winning streak against some top teams, why would you make changes before facing a team you are expecting to thrash? What changes would you be making in that scenario? just curious to see the replies because I don't think I would be making any.

[Cougar2010]

If you were on a 5 match winning streak against some top teams, why would you make changes before facing a team you are expecting to thrash? What changes would you be making in that scenario? just curious to see the replies because I don't think I would be making any.

Well a team towards the bottom will be playing much more defensively and probably looking to counter attack while a top team would have pushed forward more leaving more space behind.

Tactics wise if you have a formation/style that looks to use the space to get behind the defence its unlikely to be as effective against a bottom team. You will be getting a lot of possession in front of the opposition, they'll probably stand off you more and let you have the ball (at least at the start & depending if you are home or away). Direct play is likely to be less effective depending on your frontmen which means you'll need to work possession and drag the defence out of shape to create space & opportunities. Lower mentality and more patient play is needed to open a more structured defence up otherwise you get into the hitting the barn door with a shovel scenario.

In terms of squad mentality you need to keep them focused to try to limit complacency, this starts with the post match team talk from the last match, too much praise leads to complacency especially against a low ranked team. Before the game you need to demand more but how effective that is depends on the personalities of your squad, some rise to it, some crumble. If you have a team that crumbles under pressure and is also complacent you have a real issue.

In JWVG's situation I would probably also look to see if they've got a new manager as that would probably also lead to a change of style and an improved performance under a new manager which is often seen IRL.

[mack4ever]

If you were on a 5 match winning streak against some top teams, why would you make changes before facing a team you are expecting to thrash? What changes would you be making in that scenario? just curious to see the replies because I don't think I would be making any.

Against a top team you're going to have a nice open match, they're going to try and attack you as much as you're going to attack them so there will be space for your players to use, it'll be easier for you to find the killer pass through their defence, and you are in a position where you can build an attack up very quickly and with a few passes can unlock your opponents defence.

You go and play against a poor team and all of a sudden that's all changed. Instead of having lots of space in their defence to operate in you're now facing 10 men behind the ball, there is no space, your players have no time in your opponents defensive third, instead of being able to play your way through their defence with a couple of passes now you're having to work much harder to find those opportunities, your players are getting chances that aren't as easy as they would be against a more open team, and you're now up against a team that is going to look to break quickly and hit you on the counter whereas before you would have the time to get organised in defence now you don't.

Just look at real life, how many times big teams drop points against teams battling relegation. Teams that they are better than in every possible way but who they just can't break down on the day.

[Cougar2010]

Arsenal/Watford FA Cup game earlier a good example of that type of situation IRL.

Arsenal had 71% possession and 20 shots but Watford defended in numbers and then counterattacked into the space.

Made worse when the smaller side that are defending/counter attacking score first which again is what happened.

[Lordcrowpl]

I am really astonished how people here really think that small twicks to tactics/instructions really makes a difference.... I have seen plenty of matches in all FM versions were instructions nor tactic changes didn't work at all.. what's more they worked in opposite way than expected, like an example : you ask player to play wide pass to the wings but you can see him actually passing all balls to the middle and going through the center..... When playing FM forget about real world football... all you have to do is find players who perform(not necessarily real good players) and find counter tactics to played by your opponent... that's all about so called FM "football manager simulator"...

And of course you have to turn off game engine if you don't want to get flustrated with ridiculous players behavior. Still the most reasonable way to play this game is old school view.

[Ryanaston]

So if leicester city were playing villa tomorrow and decided to play the same way theyve played all season which has brought them so much success, you would expect a 4 or 5 nil win to villa? And if i say to myself "I have two keepers out injured, guarunteed my third choice keeper will be injured this week" and as expected he breaks his ankle in the very next game you all blame me for not changing his training schedule? Dont know why I bother posting on this forum when its just full of fm fan boys who'll just defend it to the death...

[frustratedfreak]

Arsenal/Watford FA Cup game earlier a good example of that type of situation IRL.

Arsenal had 71% possession and 20 shots but Watford defended in numbers and then counterattacked into the space.

Made worse when the smaller side that are defending/counter attacking score first which again is what happened.

How many open goals did the Arsenal players miss?

[FrazT]

So if leicester city were playing villa tomorrow and decided to play the same way theyve played all season which has brought them so much success, you would expect a 4 or 5 nil win to villa? And if i say to myself "I have two keepers out injured, guarunteed my third choice keeper will be injured this week" and as expected he breaks his ankle in the very next game you all blame me for not changing his training schedule? Dont know why I bother posting on this forum when its just full of fm fan boys who'll just defend it to the death...

To start with , please cut out the fan boy comments.

So, why did you post on the forum?

You raised 2 points and suggested that it was more than coincidence and that the issues were coded. You have been told that the game is not coded that way and so either you have been unlucky, or there are things that you can do to get round the issue. This is not blind defence of the game, but others trying to give you some pointers that may help.

So if you want to just vent your feelings and get at those who reply, then there is little point in continuing. If you want help, go to the Tactics and Training forum, read their guidelines and open a thread in there and you will get all the help you want

[sirgiorgio]

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on tactics, and I would say that FM has definitely improved in this area. Whenever I'm favorite to win, and don't win, there's always a reason:

1. Maybe I'm no better than the opponent: my guys are overperforming, their guys are underachieving... but in theory, there isn't such a big difference between us and them as the league positions/media predictions would suggest.

2. I had one of those "I am Almighty" moments and decided to rest two or three key players, which doesn't mean my backups are crap, but maybe they need some time and tactical tweaks to perform as good as they're capable to.

3. It's very late in the season, and all is said and done. In other words, nobody cares about the match.

The only thing I'd like to see toned down a bit (although I haven't played FM16 so I can't speak for this year's edition) is the "oh the drama" effect during the most important matches of the season. I don't know how many times I needed 3 points to win the league, and I couldn't do better than a 0-0 draw, and I was fuming, and then I hit continue and realized I did win the league, as my rivals just lost 2-0 at home... Oftentimes you just want a duel under the sun against the team sitting in second place, because you know you're gonna beat 'em and be done with it. But a team sitting 12th in the league with nothing to ask for? The worst possible opponent!

I know it's cliche, but my suggestion is to treat matches against presumed smaller teams as you would treat any other match: let your best ( = best run of form) players do their thing, exploit potential weaknesses, don't underestimate their best players, and so on.

Tactics, motivation, etc. are important, but not that important. First of all, if a crap manager of a crap team decides to park the bus, he's still a bad manager and his team is still bad. Maybe you won't beat them 5-0, but you'll win for sure. And if you don't, maybe they're not that bad? Especially in lower leagues, there isn't much of a difference between the best and the worst team, and anybody can beat anybody. You may wonder why they decided to have the performance of their lives against YOU, but I'm sure there were times where you didn't deserve to win and yet you got the 3 points...

TLTR: There's always a reason. And it's not (necessarily) tactical.

[Svenc]

People who continuously drop points against "parking bus sides" -- from experience the core issue has been tactical every single time. If anybody would just switch to a decent cam view it would immediately apparent if they're overcommit, or find why it can be tough to score against such teams. On FM they're very rigid, like never advancing barely anyone when in possession. What this means is that when they drop the ball, nobody ever moves out of position as they just keep it.

Bearing in mind FM 2016's improved/more urgently played breaks in particular, you tell me which of these sides is more likely to concede soft goals and which one will find it a bit of a struggle to break into any kind of space?

There's also something special regarding centre forwards as of FM. In the above match, both sides field but one. However if there's multiple of those, they don't track back. Whilst it's a very simple thing rather overlooked, a fav post of mine was somebody recognizing he was getting beaten by a bad team always, but this time rather opted to take a look at it, like for 30 seconds. It didn't take that much longer from kick-off to recognize what was going on. He was simply overcomitting against that opponent dropping deep, who then would break into space to the 2 central forwards and forced the remaining 2 cbs into one on ones, naturally one of them is going to close down the ball carrier which means the last line is broken and passing channels created towards goal. Changed his CM to a holding player (blue arrow), fixed and won.

http://www.pic-upload.de/view-29895033/Bildschirmfoto2016-03-01um07.23.55.png.html

It's also notable that AI changes duties and (sometimes) formations mid-match, like when they try to get back into things. The 3 central forward switch is one to look out for in particular. Good luck with that on the break if you overcommit. 9 out of 10 download tactics are hugely aggressive by default, btw. There's a history behind this, naturally. One of trying to overload AI teams and over stressing the defending in the ME, same as breaking records. Still, why make everybody and their momma engage in forward movement just like in schookid's fotball as if that were the only hope of ever scoring a goal?

Doesn't happen to **** the hell out of you. Happens for managers who have it in their list of favored formations. Outside of that there will be unfortunate drops. Not because of scripts, but because on average the conversion in FM is quite on par with real football (1 in 9 shots = goal). Going by real life stats, even if you would dominate every single match a season statistically, you could expect to drop points in ca. 30% of those. Not convinced FM fully compares, in parts caused by readily very rigidly defending AI. Clearly complacency and stuff makes this slightly more likely to happen. However there's still a match to be kicked, move by move, and as tactics influence positioning of players so hugely (duties which all govern forward runs are the first thing to look for in particular), it's by far the biggest factor, really. However, yeah, better players can outright make up for tactics too risky going forward or isolating attacking players, as better attacking players evidently complete far more dribblings a match and create space simply by themselves and create more goals in general.

[forameuss]

So if leicester city were playing villa tomorrow and decided to play the same way theyve played all season which has brought them so much success, you would expect a 4 or 5 nil win to villa? And if i say to myself "I have two keepers out injured, guarunteed my third choice keeper will be injured this week" and as expected he breaks his ankle in the very next game you all blame me for not changing his training schedule? Dont know why I bother posting on this forum when its just full of fm fan boys who'll just defend it to the death...

Leicester haven't played the same way all season. They started out ridiculously cavalier, and winning games by the odd goal after their defence got battered most weeks. So they tightened up at the back, which led to them scoring less. Now they've found a happy medium between the two, so essentially they've played in three different ways this season. They'll also be playing slightly differently in most matches for the rest of the season, as they'll be playing teams that won't necessarily come out and play against them like they want.

Take a hypothetical team that plays like Leicester - letting teams have the ball, suckering them in, and then charging forward with blistering pace into the space left behind. They don't change all season, because, hey, it works! Then they come up against a hypothetical basket case of a club. Bottom of the league, and look like they can't string a few passes together. They need points, but are they going to come out and attack this side that are tearing other sides apart? No, they'll withdraw, get men behind the ball, get disciplined. The team on top will suddenly have all of the ball, but they're not the sort that can pass it around and wait for gaps, so they find themselves with masses of space in behind too. The defending team gets the ball, long ball up to a lone striker, and suddenly it's 1-0.

[Cougar2010]

If you were on a 5 match winning streak against some top teams, why would you make changes before facing a team you are expecting to thrash? What changes would you be making in that scenario? just curious to see the replies because I don't think I would be making any.

Just want to expand on this again Cardio as I think my earlier post gives the impression I make a lot of changes which isn't really the case.

We all get three different tactics to save & I believe these should be used to give you three distinct shapes, not three versions of the same thing as many users seem to do.

In my current save my three saved formations are a 442, a 3232 (3*DCs, WBL, WBR, 3*MCs & 2*STs) & a 41221 (DM, MC, MC, AML, AMR, ST).

The way I prepare for each match is to consider two main factors about the opposition - A) Who is expected to win, using the match odds which takes into account the media league prediction & a home/away factor. B) The expected opposition shape.

I then pick the shape (From my choice of three) which I feel lines up the best against the opposition, atm a couple of examples would be - Oppo 442, I'll go 442 to match them man for man, I see a few 433 (3*STs) which I tend to line up 3232 against so that I have three DCs to mark their three STs.

Once I have the shape its a case of tweaking and I don't do a lot, mainly pick an overall mentality which is often control if we are facing a bigger team and standard if I expect the opposition to sit back. If I feel the opposition play narrow I'll also look to exploit the wings and direct passing out wide and thats about it before I start.

Once the game gets underway its a case of watching the first 10-15mins to see if things are going as expected. Have the opposition used the expected shape? and have I spotted anything I need to change, examples could be we are giving the ball away too much or we are getting caught in possession or that the opposition are sitting back/pushing forward more than expected. If I feel it benefits the team I'll tweak either the mentality or a a couple of TIs during the match but thats about it.

Just because you are on a five match win streak doesn't mean you shouldn't change because you are facing different opposition which sets you different issues to deal with. That said I'm also unlikely to have played the exact same way during the five match win streak either because I would be facing five different opponents.

[Dagenham_Dave]

I am really astonished how people here really think that small twicks to tactics/instructions really makes a difference.... I have seen plenty of matches in all FM versions were instructions nor tactic changes didn't work at all.

It's not an on/off switch. That's such a 'gamey' way to look at things. Of course your instructions and tactical changes won't work sometimes, that's how football is. People continually forget there's another team on the pitch with another manager making changes to counter your own.

The point is that even the smallest of changes can make a huge difference. On occasion. If it was a simple case of make changes = players react exactly as instructed, then it wouldn't be much of a challenge. Or a simulation.

If you want to play a football game where you're in total control of what changes you make, go and play FIFA.

[JaYmZeE]

It's not an on/off switch. That's such a 'gamey' way to look at things. Of course your instructions and tactical changes won't work sometimes, that's how football is. People continually forget there's another team on the pitch with another manager making changes to counter your own.

The point is that even the smallest of changes can make a huge difference. On occasion. If it was a simple case of make changes = players react exactly as instructed, then it wouldn't be much of a challenge. Or a simulation.

If you want to play a football game where you're in total control of what changes you make, go and play FIFA.

Yeah - go and play FIFA - they'll even simulate a family life for you incase your lonely. Just realised I'm a FM FAN BOY (MIDDLE AGE FAN MAN) -

The moment every decision I make results in me winning by a good 3 goals there really isnt a game to play - I'm a tactical genius and if I'm approaching a game against a team totally out of form when I'm flying high - I'll spend every moment I get in the build up casting dispersions on my personel and their mandhoods, I'll go mental in the team talk to make sure they're awake and rant from the touchline until I see desired results. Even at low temperatures!

On the whole GK crisis - I don't have them - never have - just refuse to have injury prone keepers - same reason I NEVER have a keeper on the bench - worst case - that's what centre halfs are for - pretending their gid keepers

[JaYmZeE]

Actually - MYSTIC JIM HAS JUST ARRIVED AND MYSTIC JIM PREDICTS THAT JaYmZeE is gonna be predictable and go back to playing Football Manager - predictable as it is. I predict much success for JaYmZeE and his Kingsomethingorothers. Kingthingies - well anyways I just beat Chelsea in both Charity Shield & Super Cup with my Kingthingies using my "MY TACTIC IS MUCH BETTER THAN YOUR TACTIC" ethos. 12 step program - I'm realeasing a book - fascinating

[Kriss]

Actually - MYSTIC JIM HAS JUST ARRIVED AND MYSTIC JIM PREDICTS THAT JaYmZeE is gonna be predictable and go back to playing Football Manager - predictable as it is. I predict much success for JaYmZeE and his Kingsomethingorothers. Kingthingies - well anyways I just beat Chelsea in both Charity Shield & Super Cup with my Kingthingies using my "MY TACTIC IS MUCH BETTER THAN YOUR TACTIC" ethos. 12 step program - I'm realeasing a book - fascinating

calm down, (and send me a signed copy) I'm sure It'll be a best seller.

[JaYmZeE]

calm down, (and send me a signed copy) I'm sure It'll be a best seller.

My friend - my mission is accomplished!

[Some Guy!]

Just lost 0-5 at home to the 24th, of course they drew 1 and lost 9 before that. I knew this was going to happen!

...wowzers. I think I've lost to the bottom club maybe... once or twice in 50+ seasons over the last several versions, that includes when I've been second bottom.