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About Svenc

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    "At the end of the day, all we can do as humans is create a tactic which dominates possession, creates clear cut chances and gets shots on target." -- perceived football wisdoms of an eternally to be frustrated Football Manager.

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    Dishonored II

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  1. Svenc

    Final: France vs Croatia, 4pm BST

    It will be more interesting to check again in 100 years time, when the football landscape may have significantly changed (United States? China?). That said I personally think that the world cup wasn't decided in a couple weeks (and matches) of knock-out football, Brazil's lead would be bigger than it is (1982 must still hurt in particular). The natural ressources (player base to develop) is a league of its own, there's always been enough infrastructure and (coaching) experience to develop, so that even the "lesser generations" are typically amongst the top five, sixish international teams in the world. At the moment, considering the tricky nature of knock-out tournaments (one legged too), and the fact that this "just" the 21th tournament closing, there may be comparably (!) limited insights gained by looking at who about just edges it at this point. (Though, it's predictably the nations with traditionally the most ressources, wealth and experience). Unfortunately, in 100 years time, nobody of us will be around anymore tho to see.
  2. Svenc

    It came home. Hope, hope came home

    Depends which ones you look at. Purely xG also cracks over the fact that Germany trailed behind a lead every time, e.g. were forced to try to create quality opportunity whilst their opponent could sit further back and deny it. Same as it doesn't show how easy it was until their respective leads for Mexico and Sweden to get into the German box (counters). Let alone the remarkable amount of counters wasted before a shot could be applied from Mexico. Either of which over the longer term doesn't happen that often, as typically teams adjust. Of course, if one of those Hummels headers goes in against Korea, they may have still progressed -- if you will and depending on your interpretation, despite it all. It's fair to assume that on FM's level of feedback, you would have rage quit. No less as each match would have likely still shown multiple "clear-cuts", triggering the eventually text commentary of "how did he miss that!" -- big difference though between a ~15-25% chance (Hummels header) and a ~40-50% one (Rashford miss against Belgium in the group stages).
  3. Svenc

    Ideas to make FM harder

    The main topic wasn't much tactics though. It's how "easy" the OP finds to "hoard five wonderkids", e.g. outperform the AI on the transfer markets, at which point the squads do the job themselves (as also evidenced in plenty Let's Plays on YouTube). Traditionally, the number one area where you outperform the AI on any management game pretty easily with experience -- the AI won't hoard "lots of wonderkids" with Liverpool anyway a couple seasons in. IIRC the Director Of Football AI was (in parts) introduced to optioally make it a little harder for the player even. An area of suspicious was also the AI's squad rotation. As a sidenote, I found that the more general debate about whether the game would be "too easy/too hard" as such is mostly pointless. There is hugely different personal benchmarks at work, which is caused by the games openeness (hints over the place in this thread too, with all the "fantasy challenges" suggested to the OP so that he finds it "hard" -- e.g. winning the league first season with Villa -- fantasy challenges supposed to make the game harder even have had their own sub forums ever since). Some find the game "hard" because they can't rise bottom to top in a couple seasons time (something the game's AI is incapable of even in 100000 seasons). Others may gauge at the (top AI) and gauge, they could do better as they tend to do IRL etc. Not that it isn't viable to have different benchmarks. In fact, it's inevitable given FM's premise, part unrealistic fantasy (you taking over Liverpool as their manager), part faux realism (the game world it simulates, including how clubs and managers perform around you). But whether the game is too hard / too easy wasn't so much the point of this thread. I'd personally argue you'd need to be more inventive though to make the game "harder" than it is to make the game "easier", no less as the community provides so many stuff and insights, some of it pretty much "Plug&play", and all of it running rings around the AI, which is permanent.
  4. Svenc

    Who will win the Final

    That's what they said about arguably the least evenly matched final in recent times too (Brazil - crumbling and torpid Germany 2002) too-- and then ze Germans , who lucked massively out against the US, Cameroon and struggled to beat Ireland played the best match of their tournament and gave Brazil a decent run for their money -- despite missing out on Ballack, their only outfield player of superior class at that point. You don't get to a world cup final usually with teams leagues apart -- and if the final result is something extraordinary, it oft comes about caused by the run of the game, or remarkable events within it at this stage. Also see that 1-7 drubbing and how remarkable that is to see a defense completely falling apart for ten minutes plus (or a reknowned left back not getting the message that every time he doesn't track back, his side is tormented and begging to concede). FiveThirtyEight has it down as a 60/40 game. Naturally, may as well end up 4-0 for France regardless.
  5. Mail Sander Ijtsma (11tegen11), he'll likely tell you something about it. (I've personally contacted him twice about something and got an instant reply, nice man). Btw. those timelines are pretty neat and could be useful even on FM with the limited and hugely flawed stats it has now, no less as how dynamical AI appraoches matches. Many of those "statistically" one sided matches on FM come about as a) the AI takes an early lead and closes shop or b) finally cracks and concedes the 0-1 and then finally stops bunkering, as else it's guaranteed to lose. No final match stat screen posted all over the wider FM community ever since has ever told the "story" of a match.
  6. Svenc

    Ideas to make FM harder

    Small things like that may have an effect already. In technical terms, FM is a "symmetric game". You as well as AI engage in the same activities/tools, trying to achieve the same goals. Compared to say, a shooter, where the programmed "goal" of the AI is to provide obstacles for the player between getting from point A to B, for example. That AI may not at all even use the same weapons, or anything. As such, it doesn't really matter much how restrictions you set for yourself -- or challenges you set up. If you're superior somewhere over the AI, it's a matter of persisting. It was suggested in here to use the Director Of Football for instance, so that effectively on the transfer markets, you may perform more like FM's AI. You may not even be godlike on the game, to the extent that on occasion you still see some sacks. But if you're superior, you're still sacked less often as the game's AI, which rubs off in a multitude of ways itself, as managers staying in jobs tend to gain their squad's/board's trust, etc. However, a "truly" football sim would arguably limit some the impact a manager has anyways some (that's another topic -- and one that is a tad subjective). At the very least, in competitive football such advantages of one manager over the others is unheard of. If FM were to ever introduce "difficulty levels", it would arguably need to introduce levels of AI. Some more refined levels of AI are arguably progress anyways, so that the few elite managers may actually perform better than the average and vice versa.
  7. Svenc

    Ideas to make FM harder

    To me altering the game's difficulty in any simulationish type of game boils down to the AI and AI only. You can set yourself any fantasy target you like. But ultimately, the perceived difficulty for me is always how the AI does with clubs/teams and how do I do with the very same. Naturally nobody would want a game were AI in general was just "unbeatable" or this much better that you wouldn't be able to cope. However, even the supposedly elite guys not being quite like the "real" thing much may also be a bit of turn-off, also in terms of immersing yourself into the simulated game world. Coincidentally or not, also the reason I often detest traditional difficulty settings in other games, like RPGs, where higher levels simply mean opposition may turn into annoying damage sponges rather than just really more clever/robust AI. I think that the further FM would lean towards the simulation approach, a "natural" difficulty curve would come all by itself. After all, football is and can be fairly unpredictable right at the top for the very top. This certainly goes for the short and mid-term, anyway.
  8. Svenc

    FM19 Discussions Thread!

    Outstanding! The only thing missing is the rantd about supposedly cheating AI.
  9. I had always assumed Hazard completing like 50x the dribbles on FM 15 (and turning Chelski into quite the excercise for reloaders til the win) to be a bug. Standing corrected.
  10. The problem with (almost) any of FM's stats is that they aren't very much telling of anything. A player may make a lot of assists because he's set up that way (and his team is largely camping in the opposition final third). A striker may score a lot of goals because he has a shitton of attempts funneled his way (and is simply expected to be doing just that). A player may also run a lot of kilometres because he's encouraged to run the flanks ragged all match long and is caught out of position often, etc. Additionally, typically FM "stores" a lot of its numbers for just the running season, and over the course of 30-40 matches, there is a reasonable amount of random chance causing numbers to fluctuate even in the game. There more things to say, but there's lots of room to improve the analyst. No less as FM's data is lacking behind the analyst curve. Then again, as hinted at in the opening post, same as much feedback in the game, the analyst appears mainly a tool to further spoonfeed the human manager / give him another advantage over AI managers. That's a tight rope to walk. Even if the AI managers were to assess added feedback, there will always be a limit as how intelligently it can use it. There's a difference between coding AI that is simply looking for guys who do their stuff at better than usual rates. And say an AI that say first a) implements coherent tactictal systems and b) can find a holistic way to piece all the (player) puzzles together to suit. a) simply requires an analyst /data that makes players stand out from the crowd. b) requires holistic "thinking". Additionally, the more feedback you have in the game, the more daunting the game may look at first glance to the more casual player or FM freshman -- an effect that can be softened to an extent, though.
  11. Header clearances being counted (failed) passes has been a thing ever since -- that is for me ever since FM 2008. It's noticeable as every time you would opt to drop deep and invite some pressure, the pass completion always went down by the simple virtue of doing such. Just so many added header clearances. Thus droppin deep with some regularity it's harder to miss.
  12. No. There was also but one "Big Chance" in there, according to Whoscored, anyway (Ekdal). But since the guys on telly yell "should have scored that" on everything, and make it sound **** easy to get balls on target, that's the damage.
  13. The odds system in-game works completely different to real-life betting markets to begin with. There is mechanics that just don't translate, including the influence of reputation, and several more. Then again they serve a different purpose in-game than in football... no less as nobody actually places bets on FM. In-game likely the most recent season's perfomance to play a big part in this, in particular in this case purely the amount of goals scored. Goals, which in football too, can fluctuate quite a bit simply due to random chance --- hence in football the introduction of more telling numbers than simply goals. This seems similar to how the season predicitons for the tables work in-game; the purely most recent league standing seems the single biggest factor here. If in football a team overperforms in the league table (or vice versa), their odds usually aren't hugely changed from the one season to the next, as random chance can play a significant role in over and underperformance over a season. In particular in football, such a low scoring sports as it is. Take the Bundesliga, where IRL the point gap between 6th and 16th place is often but 12-15 points, e.g. 4 additional typically close wins or losses, perhaps even mainly "lucky" or "unfortunate" ones. In-game the match odds are quite sensitive to purely winning and losing streaks as such too.
  14. You mean players confusing attempts for quality, massively misjudging chances and by such increasing the likelyhood of dropping the points? That very obviously happens all the time indeed.