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Svenc last won the day on November 4 2016

Svenc had the most liked content!

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1,287 "Carpe diem. Seize the day"


About Svenc

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    Youth Team


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    "At the end of the day, all we can do as humans is create a tactic which dominates possession, creates clear cut chances and gets shots on target." -- perceived football wisdoms of an eternally to be frustrated Football Manager.

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    Dishonored II

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  1. Speaking about Newcastle.... don't trust the results (or WDL runs) in a low scoring sports such as this -- or a simulation based on it. Neither your own or your opponents'. Both in game as well as in real football, it's 90 minutes of kicking, but woefully few seconds of it settling winner or loser. There's a reason performance analysts, bookies as well as bettors are looking elsewhere, because any such run can be wholly random. Teams can play rather mediocre and go on good runs as well as vice versa (additionally, even if all teams were equal, there would be serial losers as well as winners o
  2. There's another thing in competitive leagues in football, which is rarely ever talked about in the mainstream (as mainstream media need definite heroes to celebrate and sorry losers to laugh about -- both fans desire to have too): Luck. People like Benham have made a fortune out of assessing teams. For years they have been arguing that e.g. prior to Bayern's complete financial dominance over the BUndesliga, in Wolfsburg and Stuttgart it was "but" the third and fourth best team that year who had won the Bundesliga. E.g. they were good, but also lucky. Ted Knuton argued much the
  3. Whilst it is debatable how much the table "lies" (that is as an actually accurate ranking of teams), that it doesn't "lie" actually remains one of football's biggest myths. Bit OT, so: Why Brentford are leading the way in recruitment strategy. (footballbh.net) Brentford's Moneyball Way To Beat Football Teams With Huge Budgets | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights Does the league table lie? (footballradar.com) "Telling people that the league table lies is like telling people that the earth is flat. All their preconceptions are being challenged, and the media won't accept
  4. It's completely the other way around. THe ME is a kick by kick simulation, with second by second on and off the ball movement. Whenever a sequence of play leads to a goal is a goal. The totals are whatever the toals are at the end of that. Otherwise you'd never be able to influencne matches and the run of play, as better players clearly do. Now as to deep defending, and it being hardish to do (may be true): If I'd be into conspiracy theories, I'd go more alongside the line of the following: - human players hugely love attacking tactics with loads of goals, so they tweak the game in a
  5. That said, there's nothing whatsoever like that in the game (as also mass recorded on many FM platforms). This is again not defending the game, but being concerned in terms of long-term development of the series. If "cheating" or "Unfairness" perceptions persist, the chance of AI improvements drops below zero (if the AI would improve, the game would be perceived as even more "unfair"). The game has actually not even ever giving a **** whether you're at all doing anything, outside of starting a save and pushing the space bar to progress the date.
  6. What does the Expected Points table look like by the end of the seasons in comparison to actually points taken? In general, I've seen AI managers underperforming that on occasion by as much as -15 points. Liverpool in terms of data are very likely to be overrated based on their previous league campaign. As Statsbomb based on data now available in-game have analyzed, to break records like that in a competitive league such as the EPL takes more than being simply a great team (if anybody had managed City that term on FM, he'd have accused AI Klopp of "cheating" no doubt, as Man C
  7. This is also a really old post I'm going to link to, but that's also a good point: Having (statistical) feedback that there may be an issue is not the same as being able to fix that issue. (In this case, answering the question of how you may increase the chance of scoring against a particular opposition) In a sense, this goes straight back to this old post I was about to link to. One of the keys indeed may be making players asking themselves the right questions in the first place (and being able to answer those questions via the game's tactical UI).... Not a Rant, But.... - Football Manager
  8. What version are you on? That's why they'Ve introduced xG to FM21. (And from my experience, most FM players were pretty bad at judging the quality of chances -- probably not their fault, as TV analysis on this has always been pretty damn cack too, and that's what we'Ve all grown up on). xCommentary | StatsBomb Ten years ago we've threads about this...... Lets Assume It's "MY" Fault (time to ask for help?) - Football Manager General Discussion - Sports Interactive Community (sigames.com) (on page 3/4 starts the then purely subjective discussion about the quality of chances -- th
  9. This could be improved by a few of things (already made a few suggestions --- the xG stat now in the game which SHOULD help on average and in the longer run of things I've also been advocating for years as the "clear-cut chances" have plain never worked -- they lacked definitions to begin with). On FM (outside of bugs) and in football, sides that create the better chances have always had higher chances to win football matches (which does not mean that the team with the better chances always wins). Whilst stats in isolation aren't everything (and many actually manage purely by final match stats
  10. May be worth a look. My guide to hoofball - Page 6 - Tactics, Training & Strategies Discussion - Sports Interactive Community (sigames.com)
  11. Haven't tried, but back then that worked well enough. At least until your reputation would rise and more and more AI would play defensively / shut the shop (even the bigger dogs... FM AI). I also went with an attacking mentality, as that is more suited to quick transitions from back to front (dropped naturally much deeper though than its default, plus encouraged a more direct game than its default). Reckon that's still one of the more common misconceptions to this day (UI issue if you ask me, plus "mentality" naturally isn't quite a football concept but a fairly abstract FM concept). Howeve
  12. I've got a request (the bolded part at the end). That said I've fielded players out of position before, albeit full teams such back then with Barcelona (didn't do them particularly good). Pic-Upload.de - barca.png (pic-upload.de) As to scoring goals, I've always been arguing that on this game the chance is more important than the player/forward who has it (which to a degree is naturally true in actual football itself). Systematic finishing issues have always been tactical as to FM, as they would influence the amount and type of chances had. Additionally, the AI has ma
  13. Yeah, actual ME faults naturally have to go away. What's become apparent to me in general is that there's also a HUUUUGE difference between having success on this game (many/most do) ---- and understanding WHY you have this success. (Would be interesting how many of the download "super tactics" are purely trial&error jobs, whilst we're at that). In a sense, that's a game failure too. Until that gap closes there will always be bad theory and even accusations of AI cheating. This can only ever done by honing the ME, and at least optionally improving feedback (readability of the match p
  14. Well, the game seems to somewhat simulate xG underperformance (at least with AI managed sides, e.g. this Galatasaray). By in-game xG, sHould have had 15 points more, but were relegated first season (cheating AI, clearly ;)) . image.png.07495f20fc0219dbb5e310dbe1aa160e.png (3440×1482) (invisioncic.com) image.png.c275facad9c8537fb4eb913d1a3a2057.png (3494×1210) (invisioncic.com) One of the long-term "uses" of xG and similar models is an additional help when trying to gauge performance and whether it was good or bad luck behind current results (data fluent clubs such as Brentfor
  15. Yes, that's something different to what Outrospective claimed though. Basically, things are actually simulated before you get to see anything, so that the highlights picker knows where a highlight is. (If things weren't simulated in advance, the highlights wouldN't work). Naturally, tactical changes cause recalculations / resimulations from that minute on (because else those tactical changes would have no effect). That does not change that the ME is a kick by kick second by second simulation. Outrospective claimed the ME would decide that a goal was going to be scored beforehand, so fabricates
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