Apaco

EURO 2012 - How accurate is the FM database? (some sort of CA-spoilers)

76 posts in this topic

Hi, less than one week to go until the start of the Euro 2012!

This is a follow up from my WC 2010 thread ( http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/212649-World-Cup-2010!-How-accurate-is-the-FM-database-(some-sort-of-CA-spoilers) )

In this thread I will see if the best teams in CA in the latest FM database (12.2) also will win the majority of matches in the Euro 2012. In the World Cup the best team according to the database won in 55% of the matches.

To score a match I find the average CA of the players (and the coach) participating in the match played. If the "worst" team CA-wise win, the "real world" gets the point. If the best team according to the database wins the "database" wins the point.

If a draw the database "wins" if the average CA of the teams are within 5 points. If the average CA of the teams are more than 5 points, and the match ends with a draw, the database will loose and the "real world" will win.

Before the Euro 2012 starts the score is of course: Database vs Real World 0-0

Update will start when the championship starts and will be updated after every match.

And of course, this is not science but just for fun.

As a start I have taken a closer look at the 23 man big squads sent from the different nations divided into the different groups. I have also included the ca of the manager.

This will of course not be the same numbers as the manager will choose 11-14 players in each match.

Group A:

Team Squad average:

Russia 138,6

Czech Rep. 131,1

Poland: 126,9

Greece: 126,8

Best player in group: ca 170

Worst player in group: ca 90

Group B:

Team Squad average:

Germany 156,9

Netherlands 147

Portugal 142

Denmark 133,4

Best player in group: 190

Worst player in group: 95

Group C:

Team Squad average:

Spain 164,6

Italy 150,2

Croatia 137,9

Ireland 130,8

Best player in group: 183

Worst player in group: 110

Group D:

Team Squad average:

France 154,5

England 150

Sweden 135,5

Ukraine 134,1

Best player in group: 180

Worst player in group: 96

This makes a total list when we look at the squads:

1. Spain

2. Germany

3. France

4. Italy

5. England

6. Netherlands

7. Portugal

8. Russia

9. Croatia

10.Sweden

11.Ukraine

12.Denmark

13.Czech

14.Ireland

15.Poland

16.Greece

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have gone through the previous thread, interesting - what might also be intriguing is taking the next FM and doing this in retrospect, i.e. after the players have presumably been changed and rated according to the seasons they have had, and their performance at the tournament. I suspect some of the results might be a bit surprising – or indeed not surprising at all, hello England – with countries and players constantly being over/underrated yet somehow performing well. Hardly a definite proof of anything nor a strictly realistic approach but a fun experiment nonetheless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have you factored in consistency though? Your assuming that every player will be playing to the top of their game

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm amazed that the database has come out like this. England below Italy, but above the Netherlands? Crikey.

This thread has just gone straight into my favourites though. Looking forward to see how it pans out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should be interesting, although I'm not sure what the implications are, even in FM the highest CA team doesn't always win. Tactics, form, injuries will play a part. Going to see how it pans out though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have gone through the previous thread, interesting - what might also be intriguing is taking the next FM and doing this in retrospect, i.e. after the players have presumably been changed and rated according to the seasons they have had, and their performance at the tournament. I suspect some of the results might be a bit surprising – or indeed not surprising at all, hello England – with countries and players constantly being over/underrated yet somehow performing well. Hardly a definite proof of anything nor a strictly realistic approach but a fun experiment nonetheless.

I agree that it would be interesting to see this in a retrospect, but the database is no older than a couple of months - so I guess the changes would not be dramaticly big, but I will remember it and see if I can check it when the 2013db comes out.

And as you write in the end, this is nothing but a fun experiment, but it sure showes some strange things. You have several players participating in some squads that would not be regulars in a mediocre norwegian "tippeliga" team..hehe, that's a bit unrealistic - so some flaws do I find when I get deep into the squads. But, this is just for fun!

Have you factored in consistency though? Your assuming that every player will be playing to the top of their game

This would be make it far to much work. I found that current ability would be the "best" way to judge and compare the squads without using my whole spare time to get through the database. This is just for fun, and then I must decrease the factors as much as possible to make the job possible. I still think it gives a rather good possibility to compare the teams againt each other comparing the abilities of the players.

I'm amazed that the database has come out like this. England below Italy, but above the Netherlands? Crikey.

This thread has just gone straight into my favourites though. Looking forward to see how it pans out.

Glad to hear that you will follow this thread. I agree that the database shows some strange things. England would have been rated more like Germany if Lampard, Ferdinand, Carrick and another 3.rd goalie than Butland had been included. When it comes to Netherlands (and Portugal) their deffensive players are rated very low compared to what I thought they would be. But, this is the whole squads, when we start looking at the matches, many players will be excluded and things can come out differently (the depth in the squads varies a lot)

By the way, sorry for my bad english, it's not among my 3 best languages therefore it can be a bit bad grammar and spelling :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks a fairly accurate reflection of where the abilities of each nations squads lie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm amazed that the database has come out like this. England below Italy, but above the Netherlands? Crikey.

The Dutch are really pulled down by their defence, in real life as well as the DB. Imagine if the likes of Boularouz, Bouma and Mathjisen were in the England squad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 1:

Poland vs Greece:

Average CA of Poland (12 players + manager): 133,8

Average CA of Greece (14 players + manager): 128

According to the db it should be a close victory for Poland:

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 1-0.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How will a game be a draw in the database? it's almost going to be impossible for both teams to have the same CA. So what factors are you adding in to decide if the Database produces a draw?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is 128 and 133 not 5 apart? Which is a database result?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i'd say so, except Poland were playing at home so that needs to be accounted for too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How will a game be a draw in the database? it's almost going to be impossible for both teams to have the same CA. So what factors are you adding in to decide if the Database produces a draw?

If the difference between the teams are within an average of CA 5. That happened some times during the world cup and it almost happened in the first match in this tournament.

If you ask a researcher to increase the CA of a player with 5, they will call it a massive boost for that player so that's why I don't find the difference to small. It can differs about 60 CA points between the teams

and the db will still win at a draw with my rules, so in case the db are made with to high difference between the players, and to that I can agree :-)

Is 128 and 133 not 5 apart? Which is a database result?

It's 5.8 and that's more than 5. If the world record is 9.59, you don't beat it by running on 9.61 :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 2:

Russia vs Czech Republic:

Average CA of Russia: 141

Average CA of Czech: 134,7

According to the db: A close victory for Russia

Result: 4-1

Real world vs Database: 1-1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You not accounting for draws?

Yeah I do and I have tried to explain it twice. If the two teams are within a CA of 5 - the db gets the draw, because then the db sees the teams as rather equal. If the difference between the two teams are more than an average of CA 5 - the "real world" gets the draw.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apaco this test of yours is not valid on many levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure Apaco knows that comparing average CA is at best an extremely vague indication of team ability. It's still an interesting thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 3:

Holland vs Denmark:

Average CA of Holland: 153,3

Average CA of Denmark: 136,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Holland:

Result: 0-1

Real world vs Database: 2-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Apaco this test of yours is not valid on many levels.

Whats the point with your comment?? Read the answer from the post under from Charlie_B ;)

I'm a researcher myself for a couple of teams so I know very well how rating a player is done, and CA is a rather important part of how a player is - but I know it's far from the only important factor.

If you had cared to read this thread before coming with pointsless comments you would have seen that this is just about fun, and nothing else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 4:

Germany vs Portugal:

Average CA of Germany: 161,8

Average CA of Portugal: 147,9

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany:

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 2-2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What result what you deem successful or expect. As in I would expect the database to probably be able to win by 3 or 4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Whats the point with your comment?? Read the answer from the post under from Charlie_B ;)

I'm a researcher myself for a couple of teams so I know very well how rating a player is done, and CA is a rather important part of how a player is - but I know it's far from the only important factor.

If you had cared to read this thread before coming with pointsless comments you would have seen that this is just about fun, and nothing else.

You're quite right.

It's interesting to keep an eye on, and I know a few of us are doing so. Please keep it up!

(And come on Ireland!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 5:

Spain vs Italy:

Average CA of Spain: 168,5

Average CA of Italy: 154

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Spain:

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 3-2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What result what you deem successful or expect. As in I would expect the database to probably be able to win by 3 or 4.

At the world cup the db won 55% of the matches. At least I would expect a higher percentage than that. In the db it's quite a big gap between the top 4-5 nations and the rest, so the database needs those teams to go far to win :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 6:

Croatia vs Ireland:

Average CA of Croatia: 142,5

Average CA of Ireland: 136

According to the db it should be a victory for Croatia:

Result: 3-1

Real world vs Database: 3-3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 7:

England vs France:

Average CA of England: 153,1

Average CA of France: 156,5

According to the db it should be a victory for France or a draw.

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 3-4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
who do you research?

I research a couple of norwegian teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 8:

Ukraine vs Sweden:

Average CA of Ukraine: 137,8

Average CA of Sweden: 139,1

According to the db it should be a victory for Sweden or a draw.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 4-4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting thread. Even if it's not highly scientific, it is fun to read though. But one question:

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany:

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 2-2

The DB predicts an easy victory for Germany and you give the point to the DB although the victory wasn't so easy. The same with the close victory for Russia which wasn't really close. So "easy" and "close" are just words that are not taken into account for distributing the points, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 9:

Czech Rep vs Greece:

Average CA of Czech: 134,9

Average CA of Greece: 126,7

According to the db it should be a victory for Czech rep.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 4-5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Very interesting thread. Even if it's not highly scientific, it is fun to read though. But one question:

The DB predicts an easy victory for Germany and you give the point to the DB although the victory wasn't so easy. The same with the close victory for Russia which wasn't really close. So "easy" and "close" are just words that are not taken into account for distributing the points, right?

Thanks.

Yes, I use the words to say something about the predictions (if the average ca is about 10 in difference - I call it an "easy" victory etc, but as you see it's nok taken into account. That would only make more rules and make it more complicated :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 10:

Russia vs Poland:

Average CA of Russia: 142,8

Average CA of Poland: 132,6

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Russia.

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 5-5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like the thread, for what it's worth. Just makes me think what a shame it is that FM doesn't provide the tool for you to simply set up a one-off match with the players/managers of your choice and play it out in the match engine. THAT would be a great way to look at the Euro's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like this idea a lot. It is so far showing no correlation between real life and database. I predict a 50-50 split by the end, the sample size should be big enough for that.

mmm stats =}

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Apaco,

Very interesting thread. I came across a Euro 2012 pack for FM. It will enable accurate groupings in-game as well as start the game with accurate squads. However, the latest start date available in FM is Feb 2012, so squads may change in-game when the tournament starts.

Anyways, I want to add an additional element to these tests and include the ME. It'll be interesting to see how much influence CA has on the ME in full sim and how accurately the ME reflects the real world. I won't hijack this thread, so I'll post my results here: http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/308817-Euro-2012-Real-World-vs-Database-vs-ME-%28some-CA-spoilers%29

I hope I have your blessing =)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 11:

Portugal vs Denmark:

Average CA of Portugal: 147,4

Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Portugal.

Result: 3-2

Real world vs Database: 5-6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 12:

Germany vs Holland:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8

Average CA of Holland: 152,9

According to the db it should be a victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 5-7

First day that the database had the best team as winners in both matches! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 13:

Italy vs Croatia:

Average CA of Italy: 153,8

Average CA of Croatia: 143,3

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Italy.

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 6-7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 14:

Spain vs Ireland:

Average CA of Spain: 167,6

Average CA of Ireland: 132,9

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Spain.

Result: 4-0

Real world vs Database: 6-8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 15:

France vs Ukraine:

Average CA of France: 154,8

Average CA of Ukraine: 136,4

According to the db it should be an easy victory for France.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 6-9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 16:

England vs Sweden:

Average CA of England: 153,7

Average CA of Sweden: 139,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for England.

Result: 3-2

Real world vs Database: 6-10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 in a row. Database is running away with it now.

Yeah, the db is doing good now - but it has also been a big difference in ca between the teams in the last 3 matches, so the db really should get this games too.

By now the db has got it right in 62,5% of the matches, in the world cup it was right in 55% of the matches - so it's doing better, but still 15 matches to go!

To be continued :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 17:

Russia vs Greece:

Average CA of Russia: 141,8

Average CA of Greece: 129,6

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Russia.

Result: 0-1

Real world vs Database: 7-10

Match 18:

Czech Rep vs Poland:

Average CA of Czech: 133,9

Average CA of Poland: 133,1

According to the db it should be a victory for Czech or a draw.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 7-11

The 2nd and 4th best team from the group went through to the next round, so the db had one right and one wrong here too :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Match 16:

England vs Sweden:

Average CA of England: 153,7

Average CA of Sweden: 139,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for England.

Result: 3-2

Real world vs Database: 6-10

It didn't look like an easy victory to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Match 19:

Germany vs Denmark:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8

Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 7-12

Match 20:

Holland vs Portugal:

Average CA of Holland: 153,1

Average CA of Portugal: 145,6

According to the db it should be a victory for Holland.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Database: 8-12

In this group did the best and the 3rd best team according to the db go through, so 1 right and 1 wrong for the db also in this group.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It didn't look like an easy victory to me.

Me neither, that game was filled with bad defending both ways.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.