Apaco Posted June 11, 2010 Share Posted June 11, 2010 Hi. Just making this thread for fun, to see how good the CA given to the players in the fm 2010 10.3 database is reflecting the results in the world cup. I will try to update after every game. Game 1: South Africa vs Mexico: Average CA of the 13 players that entered the pitch for South Africa this match: 125,8 Average CA of the 14 players that entered the pitch for Mexico: 135,3 According to the db it should be a victory for Mexico. Real life result 1-1 draw. Real world vs Database: 1-0. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWWROCKS Posted June 11, 2010 Share Posted June 11, 2010 the random and tactical element of the game isnt taken into account though. FM dosent rely on just "who has the better players" especially when it's relatively close. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cougar2010 Posted June 11, 2010 Share Posted June 11, 2010 Hi.Just making this thread for fun, to see how good the CA given to the players in the fm 2010 10.3 database is reflecting the results in the world cup. I will try to update after every game. Game 1: South Africa vs Mexico: Average CA of the 13 players that entered the pitch for South Africa this match: 125,8 Average CA of the 14 players that entered the pitch for Mexico: 135,3 According to the db it should be a victory for Mexico. Real life result 1-1 draw. Real world vs Database: 1-0. How do you get a draw from the database? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 11, 2010 Author Share Posted June 11, 2010 How do you get a draw from the database? This is not science - just for fun - so the db will just win if the "better" team wins....or if the teams are rated equally good. Here Mexico was in average 10 points better, and then I thought that the db should lose, when the result was a draw. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 11, 2010 Author Share Posted June 11, 2010 Match number two: France: Average CA of the 14 players that entered the pitch: 161,9 Uruguay: Average CA of the 14 players that enteret the pitch: 139,5 According to the db it should be an easy victory for France. Real life result 0-0 draw. Real world vs Database: 2-0 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
brambleten Posted June 11, 2010 Share Posted June 11, 2010 nice to see someone got a winner from that match, it was really, really bad. apart from the ref, who had a very good game. nice idea, i'll have a watch to see where this ends up Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 12, 2010 Author Share Posted June 12, 2010 Match 3: South Korea vs Greece: South Korea: Average CA 127 Greece: Average CA 130,8 According to DB Greece slightly the better team. Real life result 2-0 to South Korea. Real world vs Database: 3-0 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheer Class Posted June 12, 2010 Share Posted June 12, 2010 Whats the CA of the respective managers, add that into it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 12, 2010 Author Share Posted June 12, 2010 Whats the CA of the respective managers, add that into it I agree, and start to include the CA of the managers from now on. Match 4: Argentina vs Nigeria: Argentina: Average CA of 156,4 Nigeria: Average CA of 135 According to DB - easy victory for Argentina. World cup result: 1-0 Real world vs database: 3-1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigaddbowski Posted June 12, 2010 Share Posted June 12, 2010 I only want to know one result, who will win in Englnd - USA...lol, What does the game say? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noxion Posted June 12, 2010 Share Posted June 12, 2010 The game says Green shouldn't be the first-choice goalie... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackemforever Posted June 12, 2010 Share Posted June 12, 2010 The game says Green shouldn't be the first-choice goalie... Greens mistake for the USA goal says that Green shouldn't be the first-choice goalie. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noxion Posted June 12, 2010 Share Posted June 12, 2010 Greens mistake for the USA goal says that Green shouldn't be the first-choice goalie. Oh, that too... Capello should have let FM pick the match squad... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 12, 2010 Author Share Posted June 12, 2010 Match 5: England vs USA. Average CA England: 161,7 Average CA USA: 132 According to DB - an easy win for England. World cup result: 1-1 Real world vs database: 4-1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 13, 2010 Author Share Posted June 13, 2010 Match 6: Algeria vs Slovenia. Average CA Algeria: 130,5 Average CA Slovenia: 125 According to DB - Algeria sligthly better. World cup result 0-1 Real world vs database: 5-1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 13, 2010 Author Share Posted June 13, 2010 Match 7: Serbia vs Ghana. Average CA Serbia: 145,8 Average CA Ghana: 128 According to DB - pretty easy win for Serbia. World cup result 0-1 Real world vs database 6-1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamunger Posted June 13, 2010 Share Posted June 13, 2010 this is interestng, definitly gonna keep an eye on this thread Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 13, 2010 Author Share Posted June 13, 2010 Match 8: Germany vs Australia Average CA Germany: 152,6 Average CA Australia: 132,1 According to db - easy win for Germany. World cup result: 4-0 and easy win. (Must say that Germany impressed me today!) Real world vs database: 6-2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
fatboyjohnmulhern Posted June 13, 2010 Share Posted June 13, 2010 I reckon Miles Jacobson and the rest of the gang too will be interested to see this, potentially referring to it in his daily blogs on Mirror Football. I also think that when the CA difference is neglible, such as Greece v South Korea, it could be assumed a draw is the likeliest event. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cougar2010 Posted June 13, 2010 Share Posted June 13, 2010 I reckon Miles Jacobson and the rest of the gang too will be interested to see this, potentially referring to it in his daily blogs on Mirror Football. I also think that when the CA difference is neglible, such as Greece v South Korea, it could be assumed a draw is the likeliest event. I don't really see why. CA is subjective and just gives an overall impression of quality with players potentially missing key attributes for their position while we know it takes more than just good players to win games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
fatboyjohnmulhern Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 I don't really see why.CA is subjective and just gives an overall impression of quality with players potentially missing key attributes for their position while we know it takes more than just good players to win games. Fair enough, each to their own. It is an interesting thread however, and I look forward to seeing the final outcome. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 14, 2010 Author Share Posted June 14, 2010 I reckon Miles Jacobson and the rest of the gang too will be interested to see this, potentially referring to it in his daily blogs on Mirror Football. I also think that when the CA difference is neglible, such as Greece v South Korea, it could be assumed a draw is the likeliest event. I agree, and would have given the database the victory if the match ended with a draw, and with a victory for Greece. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooCooKaJoo Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 i really think if yhe teams abverage CA are within 5 or 10 of eachother, you should have the database down as a would be draw. saying greece should win as South Korea have an average CA of 127 compared to Greeces average CA of 130,8 is a bit misguided. its like sayingWest ham should beat wigan, when really most people would hvae it down as a draw Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinger061 Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 Yeah I'd say anything within 10 points of each other would go down as a draw Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoot4nat Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 Remind me again how this is fun... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
speople Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 According to the results so far, it would be worth actually betting against the CA Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cool dude Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 Remind me again how this is fun... if you dont like it you can get out Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 14, 2010 Author Share Posted June 14, 2010 Match 9: Netherlands vs Denmark: Average CA Netherlands: 152,9 Average Ca Denmark: 136,2 According to database: easy victory for Netherlands. World cup result: 2-0 Real world vs Database: 6-3 Because of the lack of japanese players in the database, all matches with Japan will go out of this thread. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 14, 2010 Author Share Posted June 14, 2010 Match 10: Italy vs Paraguay: Average CA Italy: 162 Average CA Paraguay: 137,9 According to db - easy victory for Italy. World cup result: 1-1 Real world vs database: 7-3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safri Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 plus or minus 10 points in ca should be the db saying a draw Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCIAG Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 plus or minus 10 points in ca should be the db saying a draw ... and half a point if the better side win. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezequiel_Lavezzi Posted June 14, 2010 Share Posted June 14, 2010 Yeh saying 1-5 point variant in CA = a win for either side is quite silly. I know its just for fun, and I do find it interesting, but when its totally depicted incorrectly and illogically its rather pointless. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 15, 2010 Author Share Posted June 15, 2010 Yeh saying 1-5 point variant in CA = a win for either side is quite silly.I know its just for fun, and I do find it interesting, but when its totally depicted incorrectly and illogically its rather pointless. First of all I find 10 points far to much to call it close. If you go into the data issue forum, you will find that almost every researcher will call a boost for a player of 10 ability points for an established player (and players in the world cup is established) for a massive boost! So when a team is in average 10 points better, the database find the team a lot better. For a team with subs (most teams have used at least two subs) it means a difference in quality of aprox. 13-150 ability points in total. The way I do it is that I give the database the point if the better team wins or if it's a draw when the CA is within 5 points comparing the teams. If the "weaker" team wins I will allways give the database a lose. This far it's just been two matches with almost similar teams, and in both matches the weaker side has won. I don't find this way of doing it illogical, if you do you you have to make your own thread cause I won't change :-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 15, 2010 Author Share Posted June 15, 2010 Match 11: New Zealand vs Slovakia: Average CA New Zealand: 103 Average CA Slovakia: 133,8 According to database - easy victory for Slovakia. World cup result: 1-1 Real World vs database: 8-3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 15, 2010 Author Share Posted June 15, 2010 Match 12: Ivory Coast vs Portugal: Average CA Ivory Coast: 146 Average CA Portugal: 151,9 According to database - close call with a slight advantage Portugal. World cup result: 1-1 Real world vs database: 8-4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 15, 2010 Author Share Posted June 15, 2010 Match 13: Brazil vs North Korea Average CA Brazil: 162,6 Average CA NK: 84,8 According to db - easy victory for Brazil. World cup result: 2-1 Real world vs database: 8-5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
conshaldo_bonaldo Posted June 16, 2010 Share Posted June 16, 2010 but the world cup is a year into the game... surely you have to go a year into the game then get the CA's? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Candre168 Posted June 16, 2010 Share Posted June 16, 2010 Match 3:South Korea vs Greece: South Korea: Average CA 127 Greece: Average CA 130,8 According to DB Greece slightly the better team. Real life result 2-0 to South Korea. Real world vs Database: 3-0 Greece had a bad manager who fielded the wrong players and didn't even call up some more deserving players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 16, 2010 Author Share Posted June 16, 2010 Match 14: Honduras vs Chile:¨ Average CA Honduras: 122,6 Average CA Chile: 137 According to database: victory for Chile. World cup result: 0-1 Real world vs database: 8-6 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 16, 2010 Author Share Posted June 16, 2010 Match 15: Spain vs Switzerland Average CA Spain: 167,8 Average CA Switzerland: 142 According to database: Victory for spain. World cup result: 0-1 Real world vs database: 9-6 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 16, 2010 Author Share Posted June 16, 2010 Match 16: South Africa vs Uruguay Average CA SA: 128,4 Average CA Uruguay: 141,3 According to database - victory for Uruguay. World cup result 0-3. Real world vs database 9-7 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
virtanen Posted June 17, 2010 Share Posted June 17, 2010 Greece had a bad manager who fielded the wrong players and didn't even call up some more deserving players. You mean Rehhagel? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Match 17: South Korea vs Argentina: Average CA South Korea: 126,3 Average CA Argentina: 155 According to database: Easy victory for Argentina. World cup result: 1-4 Real world vs database: 9-8 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Match 18: Greece vs Nigeria: Average CA Greece: 135 Average CA Nigeria: 133,2 According to database: Thight match with Greece with a minor advantage (home or draw) World cup result: 2-1 Real world vs database: 9-9 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Match 19: France vs Mexico: Average CA France: 158 Average CA Mexico: 138,3 According to database: Easy victory for France. World cup result: 0-2 Real world vs database: 10-9 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nesij Posted June 18, 2010 Share Posted June 18, 2010 Hello ! In defense of the database lets admit there was a lot of surprising/shocking(spain) results in this world cup so far... I think FM 2010 is actually a quite good predictor. But I still wouldn't bet! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog19021996 Posted June 18, 2010 Share Posted June 18, 2010 Just goes to show that sometimes team ethic is better than having good individual players! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 18, 2010 Author Share Posted June 18, 2010 Match 20: Germany vs Serbia: Average CA Germany: 152,6 Average CA Serbia: 145,2 According to database: Slight advantage Germany. World cup result: 0-1 Real world vs database: 11-9 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 18, 2010 Author Share Posted June 18, 2010 Match 21: Slovenia vs USA. Average CA Slovenia: 125 Average CA USA: 130,9 According to database: Draw or slight win for USA. World cup result: 2-2 Real world vs database: 11-10 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 18, 2010 Author Share Posted June 18, 2010 Match 22: England vs Algeria Average CA England: 162,7 Average CA Algeria: 128,6 According to database: Easy victory for England. World cup result: 0-0 Real world vs database: 12-10 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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