Apaco Posted June 19, 2010 Author Share Posted June 19, 2010 Match 23: Ghana vs Australia: Average CA Ghana: 125,6 Average CA Australia: 130,2 According to database: Close call. Draw or slight victory for Australia. World cup result: 1-1 Real world vs database: 12-11 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 20, 2010 Author Share Posted June 20, 2010 Match 24: Cameroon vs Denmark: Average CA Cameroon: 136 Average CA Denmark: 141,4 According to database - close call with slight advantage for Denmark (draw or away). World cup result: 1-2 Real world vs database: 12-12 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 20, 2010 Author Share Posted June 20, 2010 Match 25: Slovakia vs Paraguay: Average CA Slovakia: 134 Average CA Paraguay: 137,8 According to database - close call with slight advantage for Paraguay (draw or away). World cup result: 0-2 Real world vs database: 12-13 (first time the database is in the lead:-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 20, 2010 Author Share Posted June 20, 2010 Match 26: Italy vs New Zealand. Average CA Italy: 160,3 Average CA NZ : 101,6 According to database - easy win for Italy. World cup result: 1-1 Real world vs database: 13-13 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 21, 2010 Author Share Posted June 21, 2010 Match 27: Brazil vs Ivory Coast Average CA Brazil: 163,5 Average CA Ivory Coast: 146 According to database: Win for Brazil. World cup result: 3-1 Real world vs database: 13-14 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 21, 2010 Author Share Posted June 21, 2010 Match 28 Portugal vs North Korea. Average CA Portugal: 152,4 Average CA North Korea: 86,2 According to database - Easy win for Portugal. World cup result: 7-0 Real world vs database: 13-15 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 21, 2010 Author Share Posted June 21, 2010 Match 29 Chile vs Switzerland. Average CA Chile: 137,6 Average CA Switzerland: 142,1 According to database. Close call with slight advantage for Switzerland (Draw or away). World cup result: 1-0 Real world vs database: 14-15 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 22, 2010 Author Share Posted June 22, 2010 Match 30 Spain vs Honduras. Average CA Spain: 167,8 Average CA Honduras: 123,6 According to database. Easy win for Spain. World cup result: 2-0 Real world vs database: 14-16 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 22, 2010 Author Share Posted June 22, 2010 Match 31 Uruguay vs Mexico Average CA Uruguay: 139,7 Average CA Mexico: 138,4 According to database - Close call with slight advantage for Uruguay (Home or draw). World cup result: 1-0 Real world vs database: 14-17 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 22, 2010 Author Share Posted June 22, 2010 Match 32: France vs South Africa. Average CA France: 157,4 Average CA South Africa: 126,8 According to database - easy win for France. World cup result: 1-2 Real world vs database: 15-17 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sead Muratic Posted June 22, 2010 Share Posted June 22, 2010 Good fun, and I really hope the real world will catch up and finally win (slim chance, though) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMdan44 Posted June 22, 2010 Share Posted June 22, 2010 Good fun, and I really hope the real world will catch up and finally win (slim chance, though) I'm rooting for the db to win convincingly actually, it'd be cool for the game to be that accurate Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 22, 2010 Author Share Posted June 22, 2010 Match 33: South Korea vs Nigeria. Average CA South Korea: 126,5 Average CA Nigeria: 135,8 According to database: Small win for Nigeria. World cup result: 2-2 Real world vs database: 16-17 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 22, 2010 Author Share Posted June 22, 2010 Match 34: Argentina vs Greece: Average CA Argentina: 150,6 Average CA Greece: 134,2 According to database: Win for Argentina. World cup result 2-0 Real world vs database: 16-18 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealMeanDigsy Posted June 23, 2010 Share Posted June 23, 2010 This is a crude yet interesting way of measuring the FM10 database. You can't take into account it takes around six weeks in real life to get acclimatised to altitude, that is going to be circa the quarter-finals for those who are not used to it. Also note that many players (irrespective of my personal opinion) are not condifent with the new ball, if these could be factored out I would expect the FM10 database to be scoring a lot higher that it is. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
escalibur Posted June 23, 2010 Share Posted June 23, 2010 This is a crude yet interesting way of measuring the FM10 database. You can't take into account it takes around six weeks in real life to get acclimatised to altitude, that is going to be circa the quarter-finals for those who are not used to it. Also note that many players (irrespective of my personal opinion) are not condifent with the new ball, if these could be factored out I would expect the FM10 database to be scoring a lot higher that it is. Yeah we need Jabulani's impact in the database aswell. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 23, 2010 Author Share Posted June 23, 2010 Match 35: England vs Slovenia: Average CA England: 164,4 Average CA Slovenia: 126,2 According to database - massive win for England - world cup result: 1-0 Real world vs database: 16-19 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 23, 2010 Author Share Posted June 23, 2010 Match 36: Algeria vs USA Average CA Algeria: 130,7 Average CA USA: 129,4 According to database: Thight match with small advantage for Algeria (Home or draw): World cup result: 0-1 Real world vs database: 17-19 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCIAG Posted June 23, 2010 Share Posted June 23, 2010 :O I'd have thought the US players were better than that! Is that a squad average or XI average? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 23, 2010 Author Share Posted June 23, 2010 :O I'd have thought the US players were better than that!Is that a squad average or XI average? I allways use the average of the starting eleven + subs being used in the current match + coach (so a possible of 15 at most). USA had 132 and 130,9 in their first 2 matches, so todays setup was their weakest in the group stage according to the database:) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Candre168 Posted June 23, 2010 Share Posted June 23, 2010 You mean Rehhagel? Yes, he's lost it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 23, 2010 Author Share Posted June 23, 2010 Match 37. Germany vs Ghana. Average CA Germany: 150,8 Average CA Ghana: 127,4 According to database - easy victory for Germany. World cup result 1-0 Real world vs database: 17-20 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 23, 2010 Author Share Posted June 23, 2010 Match 38 Australia vs Serbia Average CA Australia: 131,7 Average CA Serbia: 144,6 According to database - victory for Serbia. World cup result: 2-1 Real world vs database: 18-20 Still a close race! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWWROCKS Posted June 23, 2010 Share Posted June 23, 2010 What I would say undoes this experiment is by saying that anything like Spain/Swiss where the real world says it's a shock result is unfairly regarded as a loss for the database. Cause that means that Spain were expected to win, so therefore the database is actually right by saying that spain's CA is better than Switzerlands. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 Match 39 New Zealand vs Paraguay Average CA New Zealand: 102,6 Average CA Paraguay: 138,6 According to database - easy victory for Paraguay. World cup result: 0-0 Real world vs database: 19-20 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 Match 40: Italy vs Slovakia. Average CA Italy: 160,4 Average CA Slovakia: 131,1 According to database - easy victory for Italy. World cup result: 2-3 Real world vs database: 20-20 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 Match 41: Netherlands vs Cameroon Average CA Netherlands: 155,4 Average CA Cameroon: 132,7 According to database - win for Netherlands. World cup result: 2-1 Real world vs database: 20-21 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 25, 2010 Author Share Posted June 25, 2010 Match 42: North Korea vs Ivory Coast. Average CA North Korea: 85,7 Average CA Ivory Coast: 145,8 According to database - easy win for Ivory Coast. World cup result: 0-3 Real world vs database: 20-22 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 25, 2010 Author Share Posted June 25, 2010 Match 43: Brazil vs Portugal. Average CA Brazil: 158,7 Average CA Portugal: 152,1 According to database - small win for Brazil. World cup result: 0-0 Real world vs database: 21-22 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamunger Posted June 25, 2010 Share Posted June 25, 2010 Match 43:Brazil vs Portugal. Average CA Brazil: 158,7 Average CA Portugal: 152,1 According to database - small win for Brazil. World cup result: 0-0 Real world vs database: 21-22 As its within 10 shudnt a draw be an option as well mneaning another point for database? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 As its within 10 shudnt a draw be an option as well mneaning another point for database? As I have written before do I see 10 points as far to big difference, so I have drawn the line at 5 points in difference. Brazil where in average 6,6 ability points better pr player wich makes it more than 90 ability points in total, that's why the database lost. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 Match 44: Spain vs Chile. Average CA Spain: 167,7 Average CA Chile: 135,2 According to database - easy win for Spain. World cup result: 2-1 Real world vs database: 21-23 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 Match 45: Switzerland vs Honduras. Average CA Switzerland: 141,1 Average CA Honduras: 125,8 According to database - win for Switzerland. World cup result: 0-0 Real world vs database: 22-23 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 Match 46 Uruguay vs South Korea. Average CA Uruguay: 140,4 Average CA South Korea: 126,8 According to database - win for Uruguay. World cup result: 2-1 Real world vs database: 22-24 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougyMarshall Posted June 26, 2010 Share Posted June 26, 2010 You shouldnt count any of the Italy or France matches as both of those teams realy should have won near enough all their games, if it had not been for complete incompetence from their managers and bad attitudes from their players. On any given day those games would have gone in favour of the database if it wasnt for circumstances that a simple CA comparison does not factor in, like morale and "senior moments". So its realy something like 16-24 in favour of the Data base if you take those 6 games out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sead Muratic Posted June 26, 2010 Share Posted June 26, 2010 You shouldnt count any of the Italy or France matches as both of those teams realy should have won near enough all their games, if it had not been for complete incompetence from their managers and bad attitudes from their players.On any given day those games would have gone in favour of the database if it wasnt for circumstances that a simple CA comparison does not factor in, like morale and "senior moments". So its realy something like 16-24 in favour of the Data base if you take those 6 games out. But the OP's intention is to pit database against real life, not against ideal circumstance nor what might have been Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 But the OP's intention is to pit database against real life, not against ideal circumstance nor what might have been Exactly! People must remember that a world cup is about the best players from different nations, not club football where you find the best players from different nations put into one club. It's shown over and over again that the difference between the best players from different nations is very small (f.ex Greece (2004), Croatia (1998), Turkey (2002) etc). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 Match 47: Usa vs Ghana. Average CA USA: 129 Average CA Ghana: 127,8 According to database: Thight match with small advantage for USA (home or draw). World cup result 1-1 (1-2 after extra time) Real world vs database: 22-25 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 Match 48: England vs Germany. Average CA England: 163,4 Average CA Germany: 153,7 According to database - win for England. World cup result: 1-4 Real world vs database: 23-25 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 Match 49: Argentina vs Mexico. Average CA Argentina: 152,4 Average CA Mexico: 138,2 According to database - win for Argentina. World cup result: 3-1 Real world vs database: 23-26 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 28, 2010 Author Share Posted June 28, 2010 Match 50: Netherlands vs Slovakia. Average CA Netherlands: 154,7 Average CA Slovakia: 132,6 According to database - win for Netherlands. World cup result: 2-1 Real world vs database: 23-27 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jkettdog Posted June 28, 2010 Share Posted June 28, 2010 I don't understand how the real world can lose, surely the real world is always accurate. It should really just be that the database has been correct 27/50 times, so 54% of the time... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 28, 2010 Author Share Posted June 28, 2010 I don't understand how the real world can lose, surely the real world is always accurate. It should really just be that the database has been correct 27/50 times, so 54% of the time... Hehe, you are completely right. Not being english I struggeled to find the right word, so I just chose real world. The meaning of the project is to see how often the database has been correct, and until now it's been in 27/50. The choice of words just came from my bad english :-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apaco Posted June 28, 2010 Author Share Posted June 28, 2010 Match 51: Brazil vs Chile. Average CA Brazil: 159,8 Average CA Chile: 137,7 According to database -win for Brazil. World cup result: 3-0 Real world vs database: 23-28 Fun to see that the England team would have been favorites against both Brazil, Netherlands and Argentina (and of course Germany). Seems like the database is on fire now and has won 4 out of the 5 last matches! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
german_wunderkind Posted June 28, 2010 Share Posted June 28, 2010 interesting. but do u notice that the german players have 10 points of current ability less then the english on average? same as argentina... who still believes that this is accurate has no idea. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaron1606 Posted June 28, 2010 Share Posted June 28, 2010 It comes down to more than just player ability though doesn't it? A team of good, solid players that work together will usually beat a team of individuals, unless they have a Maradona.. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCIAG Posted June 28, 2010 Share Posted June 28, 2010 interesting.but do u notice that the german players have 10 points of current ability less then the english on average? same as argentina... who still believes that this is accurate has no idea. I imagine a lot of the German players will be boosted after their exceptional club form (Boateng, Muller, Ozil). The data used is six months out of date, after all. It's also good to remember that Germany have a history of playing exceptionally well as a team, and England have a history of just cramming in individual talents. It's hard to argue that Lampard and the like are world class club players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
weiming9001 Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 as fm is developed by the british, it's not hard to understand that they tend to overrate english players, and epl in general. German players are way better than english players in many ways. Look at terry and upson, Where's the defense, if there is any, at all?according to fm, terry is highly rated, not so irl. in the match i cant even see the english midfield, after the match i saw cole(joe cole?) was playing, i was so shocked because i cant even find him! steven gerrard overrated too...Wayne Rooney the most overrated of all. rooney gets the ball, either loses it or dribble past a few players and shoot randomly. Most of the time i dun even know what he is doing. the english will never win a world cup like this. 2 goals from england came from a frank lampard long shot(disputable but i think it should count) and a cross in which upson scored. the english never had any chance, the germans are too good for them. I think what the commentator said is correct, if the english play epl style, they are going to lose because the germans are too smart for that. Pretty much sums it up. So apart from overrating the english and france team disintegrating irl, i would say the database is pretty correct in predicting scorelines. Lest no forget the poor referees' decisions made in this world cup(i.e a spanish fascist referee issuing 9 yellow cards during the serbia germany match). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayahr Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 Interesting thing to look at Yet I hope the OP is aware that a slight difference in CA does not at all mean a team should win or lose, neither in the game nor irl. Thus the exercise should be taken with quite a few pinches of salt which is not intended by the OP as it seems. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neji Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 as fm is developed by the british, it's not hard to understand that they tend to overrate english players, and epl in general. All the research is done by club fans, not by the people who work for SI. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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