DarklinkCL Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Am I the only one who's experiencing this? I am not talking abouts shootouts after extra time, beware. I seem to have a conversion rate of around 50%, which is not realistic at all. It seems that SI Games can't nail this, as I remember last year's game having a convertion rate of 99% or something like that (in few words: they were never missed). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmason122 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 What are your penalty taker's key attributes (i.e. penalty taking, finishing, composure, decisions, concentration, etc)? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cris182 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I am seeing a more balanced success rate this year, But then last year i never spotted an issue with it either Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Neil Brock Posted March 16, 2016 Administrators Share Posted March 16, 2016 The conversion rate for this match engine (included in 16.3.0) is around 80%. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarklinkCL Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 What are your penalty taker's key attributes (i.e. penalty taking, finishing, composure, decisions, concentration, etc)? Above average. Hakan Calhanoglu and Chicharito Hernandez. I'm annoyed because my opponents obviously always score their penalties against me, I remember my keeper only saving one in a single occasion (and funnily enough it was my 2nd keeper who saved it). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danchinaski Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I've missed a few more than I'd expect to, but then so has the AI. At least now penalties are worth watching, whereas in FM15 they were a nailed-on goal, and looked poor. A big improvement so far, but if l was to offer a gripe based on purely anecdotal evidence I'd say there are perhaps a few saves too many. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarklinkCL Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 I literally just missed another penalty with Charles Aranguiz (Penalty Taking 17), but fortunately he scored from the rebound. This is seriously starting to bug me...what should I do, sign Mario Balotelli and play him just for scoring from the damn spot? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danchinaski Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I literally just missed another penalty As opposed to missing one figuratively? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HUNT3R Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I consider 2 things for penalty takers. Penalty taking (accuracy) and Composure. In matches, Body Language is important. It's no good having a penalty taker with good attributes, but 'looking nervous' or 'complacent' on the day. His focus will be off. If it's a player that regularly becomes nervous or complacent (negative modifiers) then I remove him from the penalty taking list. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansongs Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Anecdotally my main taker had a 100% record until his penalties attribute went up a point and now he's missed 2 of 3 the clown. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLLMEISTER1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I literally just missed another penalty with Charles Aranguiz (Penalty Taking 17), but fortunately he scored from the rebound.This is seriously starting to bug me...what should I do, sign Mario Balotelli and play him just for scoring from the damn spot? Ring Matt Le Tissier and see if you can persuade him out of retirement Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spurs08 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Am I the only one who's experiencing this? I am not talking abouts shootouts after extra time, beware.I seem to have a conversion rate of around 50%, which is not realistic at all. It seems that SI Games can't nail this, as I remember last year's game having a convertion rate of 99% or something like that (in few words: they were never missed). What's your sample size? There's no issue on the whole - as you admit the AI is doing fine with it. So the two possible things happening are random variation, and something making your penalty takers awful. For the second one, it could be poor attributes in areas other than penalty-taking - composure, finishing etc. - or bad motivation/body language indicating a confidence issue. There's also of course the possibility that you've got a selective memory too - if you give us the actual figures for how many penalties you've scored and missed it'd be helpful. There's a massive difference between 45% and 60-65% but you could be remembering either as "around 50". Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordieboy52 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'd say that up until the previous patch 16.2 there were not enough missed penalties, I think it is pretty good now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferni Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Am I the only one who's experiencing this? I am not talking abouts shootouts after extra time, beware.I seem to have a conversion rate of around 50%, which is not realistic at all. It seems that SI Games can't nail this, as I remember last year's game having a convertion rate of 99% or something like that (in few words: they were never missed). Attribute declining players missing too much penalties for me, and tired players too.. Ok with realism Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarltonBanks Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The conversion rate for this match engine (included in 16.3.0) is around 80%. Which according to real life FIFA statistics is too low. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Neil Brock Posted March 17, 2016 Administrators Share Posted March 17, 2016 Which according to real life FIFA statistics is too low. Yeah ever so slightly low. In the Premier League from 1992-2015 it was 84.6% - http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Penalty_Statistics.html As with everything else in the ME, it's a balancing act. It's not just a case of turning a dial to increase the percentage that go in. The match engine calculates it on a huge number of factors depending on the player, situation etc. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferni Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Yeah ever so slightly low. In the Premier League from 1992-2015 it was 84.6% - http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Penalty_Statistics.htmlAs with everything else in the ME, it's a balancing act. It's not just a case of turning a dial to increase the percentage that go in. The match engine calculates it on a huge number of factors depending on the player, situation etc. I think game does not only consist of Premier League ?? But 80% is ok. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarltonBanks Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Yeah ever so slightly low. In the Premier League from 1992-2015 it was 84.6% - http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Penalty_Statistics.htmlAs with everything else in the ME, it's a balancing act. It's not just a case of turning a dial to increase the percentage that go in. The match engine calculates it on a huge number of factors depending on the player, situation etc. Very small and inaccurate sample size. 88-90% is the acceptable number. This is a figure that was explained by one of the top FIFA certified refs in the USSF. Trust me, I love the game and I'm not one that thinks it's unfair or against the player. But SI needs to acknowledge that if it is 80%, regardless of how the ME works, that is unrealistically low. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Neil Brock Posted March 17, 2016 Administrators Share Posted March 17, 2016 Very small and inaccurate sample size. 88-90% is the acceptable number. This is a figure that was explained by one of the top FIFA certified refs in the USSF. Trust me, I love the game and I'm not one that thinks it's unfair or against the player. But SI needs to acknowledge that if it is 80%, regardless of how the ME works, that is unrealistically low. Do you have a link or any evidence to back this up? There's a lot out there which suggests 88-90% isn't realistic. An example below: Jordet, G., Hartman, E., Visscher, C. and Lemmink, K. A. P. M. (2006) Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: The roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1-9, Preview article. This paper is an essential starting place for an analysis for the impact of penalty shoot-outs in competitive international football as it reports some empirical findings on events in penalty shoot-outs in the World Cup (WC), European Championships (EC) and the Copa America (CA). The results are fascinating; here is a glimpse. The percentage success rate in the World Cup is 71.2% compared to 82.7% (CA) and 84.6% (EC), possibly reflecting the greater importance and consequent pressure of the world stage. The success rate of each penalty kick changes throughout the competition: First kick 86.6% Second kick 81.7% Third kick 79.3% Fourth kick 72.5% Fifth kick 80% ‘Sudden death’ kicks 64.3% Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarltonBanks Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'm sorry I don't have a link to the lectures they give you in a FIFA certified USSF referee training course. You keep using very, very small, specific sources to get numbers. AND you're bringing up stats about shootouts which isn't what's being discussed. Regular penalty kicks, during regulation time. The roughly 90% is a number that FIFA was using from their own stats for all football played with FIFA certified refs. I think he actually said it was 90-92% conversion rate. This was during the "make SURE it's a penalty if you give a penalty" section. Using FIFA's own stats to back up the fact that awarding a penalty, statistically, is almost ensuring a goal for the team that it's awarded to. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Neil Brock Posted March 17, 2016 Administrators Share Posted March 17, 2016 Very small numbers? I've given the average for 24 seasons of Premier League football and over 1800 penalties. That's more than enough to be used in a recognised study analysing this type of thing, ask any professional researcher. If you can find the research that suggests 90% then we'd be happy to use it, but we've seen nothing to suggest it's anywhere near this high in the levels of football we represent in FM. I doubt the validity of a FIFA certified ref unless he's using exact figures and someone has evidence to suggest the figures he quoted were correct. In recent years the penalty conversion rate of some of the world's top leagues: La Liga - 13/14 season - 75% La Liga 14/15 season - 82% Bundesliga 13/14 season - 78% Bundesliga 14/15 season - 83% English Championship 13/14 season - 72% Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarltonBanks Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Very small numbers? I've given the average for 24 seasons of Premier League football and over 1800 penalties. That's more than enough to be used in a recognised study analysing this type of thing, ask any professional researcher. If you can find the research that suggests 90% then we'd be happy to use it, but we've seen nothing to suggest it's anywhere near this high in the levels of football we represent in FM. In recent years the penalty conversion rate of some of the world's top leagues: La Liga - 13/14 season - 75% La Liga 14/15 season - 82% Bundesliga 13/14 season - 78% Bundesliga 14/15 season - 83% English Championship 13/14 season - 72% Because you're talking about "in this league" or "in these top leagues" or "in a championship shootout", and I'm talking about "in all competitive fixtures recognized by fifa as legitimate football competitions" If the way the ME works means that 80% is the closest it can get to a real life number thats the way it is. Like I said, I understand there's a lot more to it than changing one line of code from 80% to something else. All I'm saying is be honest and say that it's because of the ME and not try to justify it with selected stats because it doesn't need to be justified. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 As Neil has said if you can provide links to the data that shows such conversion please provide, also & just as a thought if the author is referring to FIFA recognised competitive fixtures it most likely referencing International football where the percentage could well be higher due to much fewer games & a higher concentration of elite level players taking the penalties. Without the data & the context posting 90% is of no help. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarltonBanks Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 As Neil has said if you can provide links to the data that shows such conversion please provide, also & just as a thought if the author is referring to FIFA recognised competitive fixtures it most likely referencing International football where the percentage could well be higher due to much fewer games & a higher concentration of elite level players taking the penalties.Without the data & the context posting 90% is of no help. As I've said, I can't link to a verbal conversation. They were referring to ALL FIFA football. Every league and cup comp in every country where there are refs certified by FIFA or a national federation that's recognized by FIFA. Which is why I'm saying getting data from the EPL between certain years, or getting data from the "top 5" leagues is a limited sample size, as that's not the only leagues FM covers. 84-86% may well be an accurate number for elite, top flight major European country football. Where you have tons of pressure, where every penalty kick is going to be criticized by millions of people around the world. Where you have world class goalkeepers that can pull a penalty save out of thin air. But since FM covers professional, semi professional, and amateur football at all levels all around the world it's hardly fair to base the number on anything other than basically just competitive football itself. Which is what I'm trying to point out. In summary: FM is a game that includes all kinds of football. The stats posted in this topic have been from a very elite selection of football. Percentages and numbers for the game should, I feel, be based on the entire depth the game covers. EDIT: to clarify, i'm not at all a "game is rigged" type of person. perfectly content playing the game the way it is. personally I've felt that pens have been a little lower than they should, but its not an issue since I never saw anyone else's opinion until this topic. my concern here is with the stats used to help determine game percentages and how limited they are. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 SI have actual data, you have anecdotal third hand reports, time to close this thread. If you can provide actual evidence/data then feel free to request that this thread is reopened. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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