Home/Away advantage: does anyone know how this actually works?

I'm curious, does anyone with knowledge of the ME know how this is actually implemented? Is there referee bias? Home squad getting a boost to all attributes? Maybe just mental attributes?

I'm always a bit suspicious of how these things are implemented because of how poorly understood the advantage is IRL. This is purely anecdotal/observational, but it seems like in FM14 there is a very significant correlation between home team and team that dominates possession, almost regardless of the quality of the two squads. I'm curious as to whether others have noticed this, and whether it mirrors real-life stats.

Nobody knows?

Many areas are poorly understood in FM, mostly because there's too many variables in the game to try to isolate single factors. Unfortunately this is one of those variables

Many areas are poorly understood in FM, mostly because SI don't explain them or answer questions about them. Unfortunately this is one of those variables

fyp........

I suppose that's correct, but it's their game and they are under no obligation to describe how the various modules work in detail. One might argue it's better that way - keeping the game "shrouded in mystery" works in it's favour

Do we need to know the exact mechanics? Isn't the fact that there is a home advantage enough?

I think Loki has put it well.

It really seems like mental attributes like decisions are penalized for away teams, but I wish I really knew for sure.

Do we need to know the exact mechanics? Isn't the fact that there is a home advantage enough?

Not for me. If true realism is the goal (which for SI I believe it is) you have to understand what you're modeling if you're going to model it effectively. If you don't understand WHY home teams have an advantage, trying to program such a feature convincingly is an impossible task.

But you're not the one modelling it, and thus you don't need to know the exact details of it

Not for me. If true realism is the goal (which for SI I believe it is) you have to understand what you're modeling if you're going to model it effectively. If you don't understand WHY home teams have an advantage, trying to program such a feature convincingly is an impossible task.

Why does this matter to you? SI obviously believe they've implemented home advantage well enough, so I'd argue that they do understand why teams have an advantage and how to implement it in-game.

If, as you say, decisions is affected (which I don't agree with), what do you do with that knowledge?

Why does this matter to you? SI obviously believe they've implemented home advantage well enough, so I'd argue that they do understand why teams have an advantage and how to implement it in-game.

If, as you say, decisions is affected (which I don't agree with), what do you do with that knowledge?

It matters to me as someone who enjoys playing a realistic simulation and is curious as to how that simulation works and how accurate it truly is. For a game like FM I do not see a lot of value in keeping features like this a black box.

Your second sentence is absolute nonsense. Just because they feel satisfied with how they've done it doesn't mean they have any understanding of the real-life phenomenon. And who is even to say if they actually are fully satisfied with their representation of it? Only a dev could tell us that.

What do I do with that knowledge? Have a discussion on whether or not it is realistic and how it could be improved, of course.

They would have obviously tested this and checked it in the long run with soak tests, so if the stats match up with real-life then it works, imo.

Do you feel there's too much of an advantage? How do you know? We can still discuss it without knowing exactly how it works.

If I were SI, I 'd have HA affect some combination of Bravery, Aggression, Work Rate, Determination & Composure. I have no idea what they have done though.

It matters to me as someone who enjoys playing a realistic simulation and is curious as to how that simulation works and how accurate it truly is. For a game like FM I do not see a lot of value in keeping features like this a black box.

What do I do with that knowledge? Have a discussion on whether or not it is realistic and how it could be improved, of course.

And the first 'black box' you want to know the thoughts behind is how home advantage work in FM? What about the 100's of other features in FM that could also be considered a black box? :confused:

They would have obviously tested this and checked it in the long run with soak tests, so if the stats match up with real-life then it works, imo.

Do you feel there's too much of an advantage? How do you know? We can still discuss it without knowing exactly how it works.

I disagree. If it produces the right end results for the wrong reasons, it can still impact the realism of the on-field product and the resulting statistics.

I'm not sure if there's too much advantage. I somewhat doubt it, as I trust they've done the requisite testing. But I do know the on-field product often looks "off" with away teams looking unusually incompetent at times. I just want to know if it's my imagination, in additional to just being generally curious as to how they've implemented this part of the game.

And the first 'black box' you want to know the thoughts behind is how home advantage work in FM? What about the 100's of other features in FM that could also be considered a black box? :confused:

What makes you think this is the first I've ever asked about?

There may be 100 other black boxes in this game, and I'm sure there are 100 other threads about them.

This might be one black box that is best left in the closet. The real world answer to the thread topic is no, no one really understands how home field advantage works. Scientists who have looked into it have come up with different possibilities. It could be hormonal. It could be psychological. It could be nothing more than a desire to to please the crowd leading to a slight bias in officiating. There is support for all of those theories, but no definitive conclusions. It is not understood what the exact effects are and how exactly player performance is impacted by playing at home. All that's really known is that home teams generally win more than road teams and there is a not understood difference in performance than what you would expect to see at a neutral cite, but this performance difference is not the same for all players.

So SI is modeling a real world phenomenon that is not completely understood. They seem to me to have gotten the understood effects more or less right. That appears to be tolerable in game even if there is sometimes a slight issue with the ME and the stats from an individual game. I sincerely doubt that anyone on the forum understands anything more about the phenomenon than the scientists who have studied it, so I'm not sure how opening up the coding to our criticism would be constructive.

From what I've read, statisticians who have attempted to isolate the effect have found that one component (perhaps the only component) of the advantage that is supported by statistics is referee bias. Refs tend to favor home teams, and more calls tend to go in their favor.

One study actually showed that teams with a track around the field tend to have a smaller home advantage, possibly because the referee is farther removed from the supporters.

I'm curious as to whether referee bias is implemented in FM, and if that is part (or all) of their implementation of home advantage.

Well I can tell you without having to see specifics that referee bias is implemented to some extent in FM. The game tells you in post match whether or not the referee appeared to be biased toward the home team. I doubt that's coming from nowhere.

But, studies have show that there is a hormonal difference in English footballers when they play at home versus on the road. This would effect their performance as well, but in ways that the statisticians looking for patterns wouldn't necessarily see.

Well I can tell you without having to see specifics that referee bias is implemented to some extent in FM. The game tells you in post match whether or not the referee appeared to be biased toward the home team. I doubt that's coming from nowhere.

But, studies have show that there is a hormonal difference in English footballers when they play at home versus on the road. This would effect their performance as well, but in ways that the statisticians looking for patterns wouldn't necessarily see.

Hormonal differences? Can you post a link to that study?

If you want to turn home games more in your favor, I imagine that if you adopt a strange pitch size -- for instance an extremely narrow pitch to match a narrow tactic, or a very long pitch for a team with unusually good stamina and work rate -- then that would work in your favor at home regardless of other factors.

Many areas are poorly understood in FM, mostly because there's too many variables in the game to try to isolate single factors. Unfortunately this is one of those variables

We just dont have enough information about this game. There is millions of these little thing that nobody really knows how this and that really works. The is no need for SI to be that vague. Some things you can find out by yourself but many things have so many variations that there is no way that one person would ever have enough time to really get the picture how these things really work in this game.

I just played CL final and man of the match had important matches as weakness.. nobody have ever explained or can explaind what really are those important matches. Only SI can see it from the code and nobody from SI wants to expained it for us. I dont know if it is their policy or they just dont care. But this problem is getting bigger every year. FM is getting more and more complex and players can only assume how some old and new feature really work. I can see players getting fed up to this.

The entire debate is similar to any debate about the inner workings of the match simulation. In the end it boils down to some people being able to accept the ambiguity that is inherent to management (and thus needs be part of the game), whilst others less so. Though I think the point that what "home advantage" really is and what it actually consists of and that it wouldn't be quite scientifically 100% researched in real football holds some merit. Still, in the end, it's SI's outlook on football not only in terms of modelling home advantage only. Though be aware that they're also looking for feedback of people who actually work within the sports. Paul Pogba was most recently caught playing, and he didn't seem to complain. :-P

Your best bet to get into some details would be to look through some patch notes of past. Whilst they don't give anything specifics away, you can get to read about what is trying to be factored into the match simulation procedure. Which seems quite a lot.

I would expect what SI put into the ME accommodates home effects (not just home advantage) in a number of ways. For instance it's sometimes cited IRL (though anecdotal rather than proved) that some players or teams play worse at home when they're in a bad run because of the pressure of playing in front of their own fans, or that if a team expected to win isn't playing well, again sometimes their own fans can start to whistle etc and increase the pressure on them. I would bet SI have tried to model this into the game.

I think there are some black boxes we don't need to know (and this is one of them), and some where we could do with a bit more guidance. Eg fitness levels, who knows what 90% actually means. IRL I would know from training if my very pacy winger who played 2 days ago, is still faster than my quite pacy winger who hasn't played for 2 weeks, but in FM I have no idea if a 19 pace player at 90% fitness will be faster than a 16 pace player at 100% fitness.

I would expect what SI put into the ME accommodates home effects (not just home advantage) in a number of ways. For instance it's sometimes cited IRL (though anecdotal rather than proved) that some players or teams play worse at home when they're in a bad run because of the pressure of playing in front of their own fans, or that if a team expected to win isn't playing well, again sometimes their own fans can start to whistle etc and increase the pressure on them. I would bet SI have tried to model this into the game.

I would argue that phenomena that are based entirely on casual observation or anecdotal evidence should not be part of a "simulation".

I am curious though, have other people noticed the same thing that I have? That dominating possession is difficult for away sides, even with superior players? I kept noticing this and it's what made me think of this topic in general.

I've been taking a look at real-life stats, and teams who dominate possession still generally do so away from home. This season, Bayern had 72% possession at home, 70% away. Barca was 68% both home and away. PSG was 66% home, 64% away. There is not a big difference there. Whereas in FM I've generally felt there is a much more significant, 10-15% drop between playing home and away. That's why I started to suspect that attributes like decisions/composure/etc are penalized when you're the away side.

Is this just my imagination or have others experienced the same?

That dominating possession is difficult for away sides, even with superior players? I kept noticing this and it's what made me think of this topic in general.

Your own games or AI v AI games?

I've been taking a look at real-life stats, and teams who dominate possession still generally do so away from home. This season, Bayern had 72% possession at home, 70% away. Barca was 68% both home and away. PSG was 66% home, 64% away. There is not a big difference there. Whereas in FM I've generally felt there is a much more significant, 10-15% drop between playing home and away. That's why I started to suspect that attributes like decisions/composure/etc are penalized when you're the away side.

Is this just my imagination or have others experienced the same?

You should compare these to their AI counterparts in games specifically against other AI teams, as any human input will affect the validity of any experiment.

You should compare these to their AI counterparts in games specifically against other AI teams, as any human input will affect the validity of any experiment.

Even then, you can't prove it's down to Home/Away bias.

You should compare these to their AI counterparts in games specifically against other AI teams, as any human input will affect the validity of any experiment.

I think checking league-wide stats is a decent test. Does anyone know how to access this data in FM? Home/away team possession stats?

I think checking league-wide stats is a decent test. Does anyone know how to access this data in FM? Home/away team possession stats?

I guess you will have to do it manually.

Would be nice to see more possession stats on the league's team stats screen. Separate home and away stats would also be handy.

Going away for a week's vacation but I hope to get to this when I get back. It will be interesting to see if there really is such an effect or if this is confirmation bias on my part.

As I said a few posts up, even if you do this, it won't prove anything.

As I said a few posts up, even if you do this, it won't prove anything.

You said it, but you were incorrect. How in the world would checking home/away possession stats for the whole league NOT determine whether home advantage is effecting possession?

It could be down to the AI manager's tactics. If your findings do show a possession drop that is too big, it could be that they're simply too cautious/defensive away from home.

Your findings might be a start, but you won't prove anything definitively yet.

Either way, if there is a big difference in home/away possession stats then it demonstrates something is not realistic, whether it's down to managers making unrealistically big tactical changes, or due to attribute penalties, or any other home advantage factor.

It would be nice if, you know, ANYONE from SI would just give us a simple answer on the matter, but I'm not holding my breath.

I can't for the life of me figure out where to get home/away possession stats. It doesn't seem available on the league table, or even the league stats page.

I think the only way to do it, is by manually trawling through each game.

Good god. Well so much for that idea.

They would have obviously tested this and checked it in the long run with soak tests, so if the stats match up with real-life then it works, imo.

This sentence is the most funniest sentence I have seen in this forum form the moderator. It is very funny to see that you guys totally trust the dev .

Using your logic, if every thing have been test in the long run with soak tests, all threads and posts should be removed in the bug forum because all bugs should not exist based on the long run test. However, there are so many threats and bug report in the bug forum.

There are so many problems for the ME. We just wants to help the game to improve. But you guys just discourage us. Many problems can be found easily when you watch one to two full match in the game. But these kinds of problems exist all the time. I just doubt whether SI have invited game tester to test the game.

Why are a lot of people obsessed on possession football? There are a lot of different ways in playing

Why are a lot of people obsessed on possession football? There are a lot of different ways in playing

Generally, if I were to guess Tiki-Taka, Barcelona, Guardiola, and the level of TV punditry/quality of stats provided during a live broadcasting. But also FM always has had a large percentage of players who have a history with being obsessed about key stats in isolation (shot counts, possession, and, dear lord, CCCs ), which naturally, as it disregards any kind of context, will always lead to more frustration than for any other player. The possession stat you see during TV matches, those during this summer too, don't even take into account the thirds of the pitch, therefore providing a very limited outlook on its quality, which, as you hint at, is what matters immensely. Also the correlation between sides winning and keeping the most of possession is just about 60%, which is also something that some TV pundits would not have considered during possession based play at its most fashionable. Yet it is similarily premature to announce the dramatic "death" of such play all the same, even though some sides have learned to cope with it better, as football remains a game of fine margins, not one of dominating a few key statistics in isolation, as television would occasionally believe you it to be. Football is chaos, and score levels are generally very low, which means even a single bad touch or decision can decide between winning and losing team, as FM players know likewise.

I don't see a problem with people being obsessed with possession on FM, but if you go overly obsessive with your encouragements, the likelihood of there being balls played from deep and flanks switched becomes more slim and slim, and when the team just fails to break down in a match and doesn't make any risky pass anymore, or generally doesn't at all penetrate the box anymore, it should be down to the player to consider adjusting and taking notice of context. Blind radicalism and dogmatism (the British direct dogma arguably proofed the counter-radicalism to Tiki-Taka) arguably should be punished in FM likewise, except when it is applied within context and with an open mind to adjustments, such as Jonathan Wilson herein suggests in his piece about Mourinho's Inter crushing Barca. The first time of such a "killing" long before the exits of Bayern, the success of Atletico or more shockingly Spain in this World Cup heralded more recent news about the drama queen death of Tiki-Taka: http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2010/may/12/the-question-important-possession

For what good is it if you further encourage passing the ball about a hundred times except to where it matters anymore, in particular if it's a 2-2 at home and you aren't satisfied?

Whilst the opposition that sees less of it frequently can and does and such manages to the keep the score line level in the first place?

edit: That said, my current save is one at Watford, and I try to see how good you can cope if you make a direct high pressing attacking game in essentially a 4-2-4 formation your full-time dogma in the 2000s rather than the 1980s.

I would say that from my experience that it effects the start of the game. I'm not sure exactly how long this effect acts maybe the first 15-30 minutes.

I have noticed that this year being vastly outclassed in the Skybet Championship that I can get a quick lead at home and if I'm lucky hold on for a win/tie. Many times i'll get hammered with pressure and shots for the rest of the game after having an advantage for the first 15-30 minutes.