AI Experiment - what would happen if?

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

2nd Round of predictions....

1. Chelsea to get beaten to the Premiership title as the formation implodes.

Spectacularly yes.

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

2. Spurs to improve again on 6th without Idiot A.

Nope, they drop back to 12th after one good season.

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

3. West Ham to plummett into free-fall after 1 season of success.

Can't give you this one, they fell, but it wasn't dramatic, only to 6th.

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

4. Idiot B to move abroad. Possibly to Spain.

Not yet, but Villareal are interested.

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

5. Boro to be relegated next season.

Rock smack bottom.

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

6. Elding to score 15 plus goals for Bandits.

Elding scored one goal, spent the first half of the season on the bench, then got booted down to the reserves. He's not happy.

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

7. The Bandits to fail even to make the playoffs.

Nowhere near.

Any chance of some profike pics of the 2 idiots please.

How do you mean? The front profile page? Or the stats or history pages?

What are the Fred's like that are coming through at the Bandits?

Pretty good for a Conference side, most of their best players are youth products and are likely to improve. One thing I'll do shortly is use FM Genie Scout to figure out if they've got any stars in the making.

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by cobalt272:

1. West Ham will not let Idiot B go, and remain a top team

Yes on the first point, and top six probably gives them that. They came above Utd anyway.

Originally posted by cobalt272:

2. Chelsea to buy yet more of the original Bandit players

Yes, they bought one more to take their total to ten.

Originally posted by cobalt272:

3. Bandits will plummet after failing to use their money

Not quite plummet, they got the same number of points as last season, but they're not hot stuff.

Originally posted by cobalt272:

4. (and to break the trend) England will win in the final on penalties!

We'll see

[Jimbokav1971]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

6. Elding to score 15 plus goals for Bandits.

Elding scored one goal, spent the first half of the season on the bench, then got booted down to the reserves. He's not happy. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

A travesty .

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Any chance of some profike pics of the 2 idiots please.

How do you mean? The front profile page? Or the stats or history pages? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

The profile is what I was after, but the history page might be a good idea too.

Thanks and well done .

[dickotheman]

you say idiot a and b, but they are not that stupid as they are the best paid. I assume they keep demanding new contracts otherwise they will move hence the better pay?

[Jimbokav1971]

Will Chelsea recover to win the Premiership?

No.

Will Man Utd be back in contention?

Yes.

Will Chelsea have even more than ten starlets by this time next year?

No, less.

Will the Idiots move?

Yes. Idiot B is going to Spain. I told you.

Will England win the World Cup?

NO.

Will any player win a personal award of major note?

Yes.

[Jimbokav1971]

Other premonitions.

1. Spurs to finish in top 4.

2. Bandits to make the playoffs.

3. One of the youg Chelsea youngsters to move abroad, possibly Germany.

4. GK2 to leave Leeds. Everyone else does.

5. Idiot B to move abroad, possibly Spain.

[Amaroq]

I find myself hoping that West Ham will sign Idiot A, so we can see them lined up alongside each other.

Oh, and like DS said, your thread is now the prime draw for my forum visits.

[Johnny1873]

Here's a prediction...

Why doesn't wingback352 quit the verbal goading to all Rangers Support and crap all over Kip's awesome thread!? ******.

Kip, this is awesome... KUTGW...

One thing I would have liked to see was instead of a rubbish or excellect staff, would have been to set all qualities to average.

I bet England lose on peno's again. Class.

[Jimbokav1971]

Originally posted by Johnny1873:

Here's a prediction...

Why doesn't wingback352 quit the verbal goading to all Rangers Support and crap all over Kip's awesome thread!? ******.

Kip, this is awesome... KUTGW...

One thing I would have liked to see was instead of a rubbish or excellect staff, would have been to set all qualities to average.

I bet England lose on peno's again. Class.

wingback352 hasn't even posted in the thread in the last 9 days and his last post, (which didn't goad anyone), is near the top of page 2................ so are you predicting something that has already happened .

[The Golden boy]

Awesome, im absolutely entranced by this thread

BTW are you planning to out the save game up anytime

[Johnny1873]

Jimbo,

Yes. honestly though i didn;t read the post dates.

My Bad.

[VonBlade]

I do so hope that the Dark Lord of SI Towers is reading this and getting his AI-coding superheroes to work on some of the issues raised.

This is still fabulous.

VB

[cliff7197]

Main issue for me is that the Bandits have so much money and such great facilities but yet make no signings, do so poorly and still don't get rid of the manager to replace him with someone more competent.

Shame really.

[DS]

Ok I have been loving this thread so its time I make some predictions for the next season.

1. Simon Clegg to leave the Bandits

2. Mensah-Omari Kinch to fire up and be the top scorer for the Bandits.

3. Idiot A to leave Fiorentina

4. Bandits to drop out of the top 10.

5. At least 1 former Bandits player to leave Chelsea.

6. At least 1 more former Bandits player to join Chelsea.

7. Chelsea to win the Premiership.

8. Leeds to get a CL spot.

9. Man U to win a cup.

10. Wigan to be relegated.

11. Tottenham to get back into the top 10.

12. Fulham to finish outside of top 10 after there 1 good season.

13. Fulham to get knocked out of the grou stage of CL.

14. A bandits player to win a major personal award.

15. 2 bandits players to be in the top 3 of the World Player of the year awrd.

16.England to get knocked out of world cup on penalties.

17. Italy to win the world cup.

18. One of the idiots will get more then 5 red cards.

[DS]

for 13 and 14 I obviously meant former Bandits player.

[DS]

I mean 14 and 15 and 15 should be at least 2 former bandits players to be in the top 3 of the World Player of the year award.

[stinger061]

This continues to be a great read. Keep it up

[wwfan]

Interestingly, the two idiots are 1st and 3rd on the money list. It seems loyalty and professionalism aren't rewarded!

As The Bandits are employing Shaun Pejic, there must be a heck of a lot of own goals, as in my one season of playing him, he scored more own goals than the rest of the team combined (probably in all my other seasons put together too). Quite spectacular some were and most under no discernable pressure.

Great thread and very interesting.

[bongda]

Originally posted by cliff7197:

Main issue for me is that the Bandits have so much money and such great facilities but yet make no signings, do so poorly and still don't get rid of the manager to replace him with someone more competent.

Shame really.

Likewise. I find myself strongly pulling for this twit manager to be sent looking for more suitable employment. They should be knocking on the door to League One by now at least.

It's odd given that the chairman is ambitious. Perhaps the club's low rep outweighs that.

Curious to know what the club's transfer budget and board/supporter expectations are in the coming season.

On the starlets front, it will be interesting to find out whether a pattern ever develops of the idiots dragging down their side's performance to any extent.

[DS]

Originally posted by wwfan:

Interestingly, the two idiots are 1st and 3rd on the money list. It seems loyalty and professionalism aren't rewarded!

As The Bandits are employing Shaun Pejic, there must be a heck of a lot of own goals, as in my one season of playing him, he scored more own goals than the rest of the team combined (probably in all my other seasons put together too). Quite spectacular some were and most under no discernable pressure.

Great thread and very interesting.

THe idiots are 1st and 4th actualy.

Thats probably since they were unemployed at the start so they got a better wage to start with because teams were chasing them and then they transfered so there wage increased again.

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by dickotheman:

you say idiot a and b, but they are not that stupid as they are the best paid. I assume they keep demanding new contracts otherwise they will move hence the better pay?

I think that the reason the Idiots have the best pay is that they went to the Premiership in the first summer, as they were unattached.

The Bandits players were loyal and stayed for one or two seasons. With less experience in the top flight they've had less wage hikes.

I would imagine by their mid-20s, the wages should be fairly consistent, obviously dependent on the clubs.

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by cliff7197:

Main issue for me is that the Bandits have so much money and such great facilities but yet make no signings, do so poorly and still don't get rid of the manager to replace him with someone more competent.

Shame really.

Just as a titbit - that seems to be changing this season, they've made quite a few signings this summer. More details to follow......

And as for the manager, they're outperforming the media predcitions every season, so a sacking isn't likely.

As for other comments, yep, I'll upload the save when done, and there's been some good ideas for future experiments in this thread, involving more types of players, and staff. One for the future

[FcPoliFan]

But wouldn't the media - IRL that is - expect much more of them, simply based on the amount of money they have? It seems to me like things are developing and evolving quite slowly.

[Dreaded Walrus]

One thing that has been mentioned a few times as desirable would be if there was a look at the finances screen/s, to see where all the money is coming and going, and to see how the transfer/wage budgets compare to the balance.

[DS]

kipfizh

I have a good idea for the next AI experiment you can run. Also I have an idea for a better format to present your experiments. Is the email in your profile also your MSN Messenger account? Because I added you and you are never on when I am on...possibly because of the time difference.

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by Dreaded Walrus:

One thing that has been mentioned a few times as desirable would be if there was a look at the finances screen/s, to see where all the money is coming and going, and to see how the transfer/wage budgets compare to the balance.

Only trouble is, to do that wouldn't I need to add myself as the Bandits manager, which would boot the existing occupant out?

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by DS:

kipfizh

I have a good idea for the next AI experiment you can run. Also I have an idea for a better format to present your experiments. Is the email in your profile also your MSN Messenger account? Because I added you and you are never on when I am on...possibly because of the time difference.

Swing it over - I never log into MSN, but the email address is valid

[kipfizh]

World Cup 2010:

England’s World Cup squad includes GK 2, LB 1, LB 2, RB 1, RB 2, CB 1, CB 2, CB 4, LM 1, LM 2, RM 1, CM 2, CM 3, ST 1, ST 2, ST 4, Idiot A, Idiot B, so a total of sixteen starlets and the two idiots. It’s a strong squad.

Group Stage:

England 4-0 South Korea

(Centre Mid 3, Striker 4 (2), Idiot A)

England 2-0 Switzerland

(Striker 4 (2))

England 3-0 Tunisia

(Rooney, Left Back 1 (pen), Idiot B)

Surprise package so far are Paraguay, who seal their knockout place with a 5-0 win over Holland, who are a decent side themselves and still qualify. England have a bone to pick with them after the penalty defeat two years ago.

Second Round:

England 2-0 Spain

(Idiot B, Rooney)

So here we go. The quarter final is traditionally where England fail on penalties. They haven’t conceded a goal in a competitive match since the 3-3 draw with Holland at this stage of the European Championships two years ago. It’s Ghana in the next match, surely they can do it this time?

[DS]

Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by DS:

kipfizh

I have a good idea for the next AI experiment you can run. Also I have an idea for a better format to present your experiments. Is the email in your profile also your MSN Messenger account? Because I added you and you are never on when I am on...possibly because of the time difference.

Swing it over - I never log into MSN, but the email address is valid </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Why dont you jump on MSN now?

[DS]

Never mind I sent an email anyway. Read it and get back to me. Thank you.

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by DS:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by DS:

kipfizh

I have a good idea for the next AI experiment you can run. Also I have an idea for a better format to present your experiments. Is the email in your profile also your MSN Messenger account? Because I added you and you are never on when I am on...possibly because of the time difference.

Swing it over - I never log into MSN, but the email address is valid </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Why dont you jump on MSN now? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Can't at work

[Dreaded Walrus]

Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Dreaded Walrus:

One thing that has been mentioned a few times as desirable would be if there was a look at the finances screen/s, to see where all the money is coming and going, and to see how the transfer/wage budgets compare to the balance.

Only trouble is, to do that wouldn't I need to add myself as the Bandits manager, which would boot the existing occupant out? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Very good point.

One way of getting around that would be to save it, add yourself as manager and do the finances stuff, and then reload the save.

It would take a bit of time to do all that though, of course.

Still, this thread is excellent reading, with or without finances.

[Shostfrock]

Good thread man well thought out, however I think if you went to all the trouble of making the club uber you should of made the coaches the same.

please I have one question, how does Goran Pandev do can you post his progress from lazio please?

cheers

[kipfizh]

QF:

England 1-0 Ghana

(Centre Mid 3)

SF:

England 2-0 Holland

(Striker 4, Centre Back 1 (pen))

So the final beckons, and it’s that surprise team Paraguay in the match to decide where the trophy goes…

Final:

England 2-0 Paraguay

(Right Mid 1 (2))

England have done it, without the need for penalties, and without conceding a single goal. How long can that record hold for? Surely with the talent at their disposal, a very long time.

All this makes the Chelsea phenomenon even harder to explain. Chelsea have ten of these players at their squad. Why can’t they do it? Is Ade Boothroyd, the now World Cup winning coach, a better tactician than Jose Mourinho?

Speaking of Chelsea, while the World Cup was going on, Right Mid 2 let his contract with them expire. He’s on a rolling month to month contract, but could be pinched at any time. He keeps rejected low contract offers from Chelsea. What will become of him?

Centre Mid 3 was England’s more consistent performer, with an average of 8.00 from five games.

[kipfizh]

Great AI idea DS - I'll reply properly to the email later and follow this experiment up with that one

I'll post the idiots general stats and histories in a bit.

Also coming up is an analysis of the Bandits squad, with the help of FM Genie Scout, and their financial breakdown (thanks for the help in suggesting how to do that!)

[Jimmyt]

I once, for the hell of it, spent £2m buying someone from Macc Town because they were struggling.

It was before the trsansfer window and I basicvally did it and forgot about it.

By the end of the season they had bought no one and had the money in the bank still.

Wasn't until I took them over that they spent anything.

[DS]

Originally posted by kipfizh:

Great AI idea DS - I'll reply properly to the email later and follow this experiment up with that one

I'll post the idiots general stats and histories in a bit.

Also coming up is an analysis of the Bandits squad, with the help of FM Genie Scout, and their financial breakdown (thanks for the help in suggesting how to do that!)

Like I said in the email you shouldnt just run that as its own experiment cause its not much point for just one manager. You should run it in conjunction with another experiment.

[DS]

Originally posted by Jimmyt:

I once, for the hell of it, spent £2m buying someone from Macc Town because they were struggling.

It was before the trsansfer window and I basicvally did it and forgot about it.

By the end of the season they had bought no one and had the money in the bank still.

Wasn't until I took them over that they spent anything.

Yeah the conference or lower league teams are not very good at spending. But I gave leeds 20 million and they spent most of it so Championship sides seem to spend it. It all depends on the manager.

[DS]

Originally posted by DS:

Ok I have been loving this thread so its time I make some predictions for the next season.

1. Simon Clegg to leave the Bandits

2. Mensah-Omari Kinch to fire up and be the top scorer for the Bandits.

3. Idiot A to leave Fiorentina

4. Bandits to drop out of the top 10.

5. At least 1 former Bandits player to leave Chelsea.

6. At least 1 more former Bandits player to join Chelsea.

7. Chelsea to win the Premiership.

8. Leeds to get a CL spot.

9. Man U to win a cup.

10. Wigan to be relegated.

11. Tottenham to get back into the top 10.

12. Fulham to finish outside of top 10 after there 1 good season.

13. Fulham to get knocked out of the grou stage of CL.

14. A former bandits player to win a major personal award.

15. at least 2 former bandits players to be in the top 3 of the World Player of the year award.

16.England to get knocked out of world cup on penalties.

No

17. Italy to win the world cup.

No

18. One of the idiots will get more then 5 red cards.

OK 2 of my predictions are already wrong. However prediction number 5 looks good and if that happens number 6 might happen as well.

[DS]

Originally posted by DS:

Ok I have been loving this thread so its time I make some predictions for the next season.

1. Simon Clegg to leave the Bandits

2. Mensah-Omari Kinch to fire up and be the top scorer for the Bandits.

3. Idiot A to leave Fiorentina

4. Bandits to drop out of the top 10.

5. At least 1 former Bandits player to leave Chelsea.

6. At least 1 more former Bandits player to join Chelsea.

7. Chelsea to win the Premiership.

8. Leeds to get a CL spot.

9. Man U to win a cup.

10. Wigan to be relegated.

11. Tottenham to get back into the top 10.

12. Fulham to finish outside of top 10 after there 1 good season.

13. Fulham to get knocked out of the grou stage of CL.

14. A former bandits player to win a major personal award.

15. at least 2 former bandits players to be in the top 3 of the World Player of the year award.

16.England to get knocked out of world cup on penalties.

No

17. Italy to win the world cup.

No

18. One of the idiots will get more then 5 red cards.

OK 2 of my predictions are already wrong. However prediction number 5 looks good and if that happens number 6 might happen as well.

[kipfizh]

Idiot A Profile

Idiot A History

Idiot B Profile

Idiot B History

[kipfizh]

Bandits details:

Having added a second manager as Bandits manager, then reloaded the save to get back to where we were, we have a few more details about them:

The board expectations are for a mid-table finish, and the fans agree. The financial situation is stunning though – a transfer budget of nearly 24m and a balance of 97m. The club is making close to 20m profit every season, having started the game with around 25m in the bank.

Finance Overview

So from a financial perspective, they have no restrictions. The problem is, once you filter out players who won’t be interested in joining, the player search looks like this:

Interested Players

Not a lot of talent there, certainly no opportunity to spend big money. All they can do is find the little gems for practically no money, despite having plenty of cash at their disposal. So it seems the lack of transfer activity may simply be down to the players.

Squad (sorted by CA)

Name, Pos, Age, CA-PA

Atkinson, GK, 19, 111-116 – New Signing (85k)

Kinch, ST, 20, 108-119

Terrell, MLC, 22, 96-118 – New Signing (55k)

Rowe, MR, 23, 96-110 – New Signing (50k)

Liversidge, D/AM L, 20, 96-109

Riley, DC, 23, 95-100

Bloomfield, AM RC, 19, 91-108

Hendry, MC, 23, 88-101

Fuller, DR, DM, 26, 88-98 – New Signing (free)

Wells, ST, 19, 86-97

Warrender, DR, 24, 86-86 – New Signing (12k)

Stothard, DR, 22, 83-95

Benton, DC, 19, 83-93

Mills, DC, 17, 79-113

Steele, MC, 19, 79-99

Elding, ST, 28, 78-95

McGrath, AM L, 28, 78-90

Brown, AM RC, FC, 27, 75-90

Pejic, DC, 27, 74-99

plus a whole load of junk.

The five players that came up from the youth academy are five out of the Bandits six worst players, all with CA below 50. They’re all trash. However, the five signings they’ve made this season seem like very wise choices. No-one reaches 120 PA, but this level of squad is very good for the Conference, and should set them up for an excellent season.

CA of X or above:

190 : 0

180 : 0

170 : 0

160 : 0

150 : 0

140 : 0

130 : 0

120 : 0

110 : 0

100 : 2

90 : 7

80 : 13

70 : 19

60 : 26

50 : 30

I’ll keep this running every season, to track how this changes over time – will the number improve consistently?

[ScottM]

No offense, but can people keep thier Predictions posts to a minimum. This is a fantastic thread and I would hate to see it clogged up with "off topic" stuff that really is only interesting to the Poster.

Thanks and well done Kipfizh...

Scott M

[Dreaded Walrus]

I agree with ScottM. Also, this new layout is beautiful.

[ScottM]

I think that already your experiment shows that, although extreme, If a superclub was created and started in the lower leagues, the Financial model can't cope and adjust both the board and the fans expectations.

I can't see the Bandits ever rising out of the Conference.

Scott M

[Jimbokav1971]

Originally posted by ScottM:

No offense, but can people keep thier Predictions posts to a minimum. This is a fantastic thread and I would hate to see it clogged up with "off topic" stuff that really is only interesting to the Poster.

Thanks and well done Kipfizh...

Scott M

No offense.

But can people keep their requests to reduce predictions to a minimum, to a minimum, because the original poster has actually asked more than once for predictions.

His 2nd post is actually made up of 20 questions that kipfizh has asked.

If you want a thread like this with no predictions then do it youself.

[Jimbokav1971]

I can't see the Bandits ever rising out of the Conference.

ROFL .

So everyone is to keep their predictions to a minimum except you.

Quality .

[ScottM]

Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">I can't see the Bandits ever rising out of the Conference.

ROFL .

So everyone is to keep their predictions to a minimum except you.

Quality . </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

To be fair thats an observation on the fact that after several seasons already and with a £20m profit every season, the Financial model of the game can't cope with the extreme setup that Kip has created. In real life if a Super club was created out of a lower league club, had a massive stadium and pots of cash, the rise to at least Championship level would probably be rapid.

For whatever reason, the club can't buy thier way out of the conference, despite being able to offer stupid amounts in wages and transfer fees.

On the flip side, the extreme players have risen to the top which you would expect.

The clubs fortunes, therefore, seem to be under strict control by the Financial model in the game and it shows that if a lower league club has a sudden or regular influx of cash, the game won't let it be spent.

Food for thought for FM08 indeed.

Most players agree that getting rid of players is very difficult in this game, average players in your division, can't be offloaded to lower divisions for anything more than nothing usually. Again, Kips experiment has highlighted that the Financial engine needs looking at for FM08. My criteria for a succesful FM game is simple.

1) The match engine must be flexible and exciting and the player must feel he can make a difference to his team through tactics planning and tweaking.

2) The transfer market must also be flexible. Its really no fun when you cant get anyone at all to sign for you and your dross hang on to the bitter end of thier contracts.

And thats it, the rest is all fluff, I love the graphics/player pics and all that, but if the games fun to play, I would forego all the graphical extras.

Again, well done Kip, you should be considered as a tester for FM08.

Scott M

[kipfizh]

Thanks for the feedback folks

From examining the players available, I think that the reason the Bandits aren't making many signings is not due to finance, but simply due to the standard of player willing to sign for them.

I guess players go by club reputation, and given that the prediction for the Bandits is that they'll sit in the middle of the Conference, they're not that appealing. Should the players available take into account the money available? Probably, yes, based on the Gretna experience in Scotland, although that may also be down to the ambition of the chairman.

This really does lead on to a staff experiment, as DS has suggested, based upon the current model. What is the leagues have three superclubs, one managed by an expert, one by a useless pile of rubbish, and one by an ambitious middle of the road type? Then that can be extended to chairmen.....the list goes on.

Thanks for all the positive stuff, and as for predictions, I did actually ask for them, and the reason was that it's a good mark of an AI experiment to have various inputs of what people think 'should' happen, before finding out what actually did.

I have to make one quick point - so far I've been very very impressed with the game AI. Considering this test was made under extreme circumstances (non-league club richer than any Premiership club bar Chelsea? Perfect players?), most of what you would think should happen has. The only questionable one so far has been the lack of Bandits progress, but a staff experiment might reveal this AI to be absolutely fine too.

Well done SI AI's practically impossible to master, especially in an open-ended setup.

[kipfizh]

P.S Please keep saying if there's any more info/screenies you want to see, and also if anything I am displaying that's not interesting, shout, as I'm aware each seasonal update now results in some serious multi-posting