Sjg's Euro 2020/21 Predictions Thread

[sjg11]

Hi all, 

Figured that I would start making predictions about the Euros and would update them after each round. Now seems like as good a time as any to start this, given we're about a month from the tournament. 

Group A

1. Italy- Italy are still a long way from being a perfect side. However, their improvement since the 2018 debacle has been noticeable and they have one of the better international managers around in Roberto Mancini. They also swept through qualifying extremely comfortably and their 2022 qualifying campaign has also started well. Overall, I don't think the Italians are ready to win a tournament yet but they are improving. Top spot in a tough group for them. 

2. Turkey- Turkey vs Switzerland is a bit of a toss up for me. Personally though, it feels like Turkey are a rising force while Switzerland are on the wane a bit. That being said, I do expect whoever finishes third in this group to progress to the last 16 and I would predict that the gap between these two is relatively likely to be goal difference. I definitely expect a Turkish improvement from a poor Euro 2016, particularly with the return of their successful 2002 manager in Senol Gunes. This is a young Turkey side and I expect them to improve further over the next few tournaments. 

3. Switzerland- Somehow or another, I'm certain we'll have the Swiss in the last 16. They are as experienced a tournament team as you can get and they always seem to find a way through even when up against more fancied teams. That being said, a few of their key players (Xhaka, Shaqiri etc) aren't what they were in their prime so I'm narrowly giving second to Turkey in this group. 

4. Wales- I can't think of many teams who have had a worse build-up to a tournament than Wales. This is a complete contrast to the euphoria of 2016 and frankly it feels like Welsh participation this time is being met with a shrug rather than actual excitement. That being said, this Welsh side plays nicer football than they did four years ago and they have more depth than they did under Coleman. However, it's difficult to see the Welsh doing much unless Bale and Ramsey can turn the clock back a few years, particularly given that the Welsh have landed in a relatively tricky section. And that's without even going into their managerial situation. 

Group B

1. Belgium- I currently have Belgium as fourth favourites to win the tournament (behind Portugal, France and England). At the end of the day, I don't trust their defence under Bobby Martinez to hold firm for the entire tournament. Hazard's poor form at Real Madrid also doesn't bode well for Belgium in terms of winning the tournament. Still, this is a Belgium side with a number of top quality players who have had plenty of good results recently. They should top this group. They're certainly capable of winning the tournament if they can ensure that their defence remains stable. 

2. Denmark- The Danes are my dark horses for the Euros. Their recent results have been exceptional and they have a good mixture of talented attackers and rock-solid defenders. They've also managed to gain plenty of good results in the 2018 World Cup and the Nations League in 2020. The Danes could certainly give Belgium a run for their money in this group, and the game between the two of them will be a useful game to gauge the quality of both sides and their ability to progress to the tournament's latter stages (even if I think that, unlike with Belgium, Denmark winning the tournament is very unlikely to actually happen). 

3. Russia- I have a theory about football. There are two types of footballing nations. Importers and Exporters. Most nations are Exporters. You can roughly judge the quality of their national team based on how many players they have in the top European leagues, and the level they are playing at within those leagues. Russia are an Importer. The best way to judge a Russian side pre-tournament is to look at the state of the Russian clubs and the Russian league as this is where the bulk of the Russian national team comes from. And Russian clubs were REALLY poor in Europe this season. The only club playing European football after January was Krasnodar who were knocked out of the Europa League Last 32 by Dinamo Zagreb. Don't get me wrong Dinamo are a decent side... but the overall picture for Russian football is pretty bleak at the moment. I think Russia are still a better team than Finland... but a Finland side in their first major finals should certainly be sensing vulnerability from the Russians. 

4. Finland- Their first major tournament and huge credit to Finland for reaching it. Given the sense of fun that teams often have when playing at a tournament for the first time or when playing in a tournament after a long absence, I can definitely see the Finns dumping Russia out in the group stages. I think their the weakest side in the group but they certainly have a reasonable shot at the last 16. Which will probably be the limit for them. 

Group C

1. Holland- The Dutch are lucky that they're in, on paper, a weak group. They have no Van Dijk (one of their key players) and a set of fairly mediocre attackers, particularly given their reluctance to start Wout Weghorst regularly. Oh, and their manager is Frank De Boer, he of the four games at Palace fame. If I were a Dutch fan I would probably be happy with an honourable last-16/quarter-final elimination to allow them to maintain some momentum for the World Cup qualifiers while taking the opportunity to quietly move De Boer on after the Euros are finished. 

2. Ukraine- I'll admit that I don't know a huge amount about the Ukrainians. On the one hand, they qualified pretty impressively, finishing ahead of Portugal. On the other hand, they qualified impressively for the last Euros and then flopped pretty miserably. Plus their first 2022 qualifying results weren't great and their squad is a pretty standard decent yet nothing special Ukraine side. Them and Austria are pretty close for second, I think the Ukrainians are a bit more consistent as a side though so I think they'll narrowly take second. 

3. Austria- Austria are decent on paper but usually flatter to deceive. That being said, if they can get their act together, they definitely have a couple of quality players who could allow them to challenge for a top two spot. I still have their recent defeat to Denmark in the back of my mind though so... I think that puts them third in this group. 

4. North Macedonia- In some of the sections in this tournament, the Macedonians would probably be looking at a swift ticket home. But this section doesn't really impress me, and the Macedonians showed their potential against Germany recently. I still think they're the weakest side here on paper but they'll certainly have a shot at a surprise qualification here. Plus who doesn't want to see Goran Pandev snatch a goal at a major tournament? 

Group D

1. England- There are a lot of positives for England. We have a set of strong attacking players and, if we can ally that with our traditional defensive solidity (AKA being ****ing boring) in this tournament we really could win it (particularly with the tournament's final stages being played at Wembley). The main question mark is Southgate. Is he capable of getting the best out of our squad? Is he capable of making the tweaks in a big game to snatch a tight semi-final/final? It's going to be interesting to find out. The extra year has probably been good for England with the emergence of Jack Grealish (assuming he recovers from injury), Phil Foden and Mason Mount along with the revived form of John Stones. My big issue with our squad is our GK. Pickford is eccentric and unreliable, Pope's distribution isn't good enough for what we're trying to do as a team (he proved this against Poland) and Henderson hasn't played much all season. If anyone lets us down I think it could be the man between the sticks. This is also a tough section and it will be a good test of what England's level is moving forward. 

2. Croatia- Never underestimate Croatia. They always have a few talented players and they are always a tough team to beat with the capacity to have a real run at a major tournament (and to knock a few arrogant/entitled sides out of a tournament). That being said, the feeling is that this Croatia team is starting to decline a bit. The extra year won't have helped them. And the next generation aren't quite as good as the previous generation was. They should remain a good side but it could be a while before they return to their 2018 peak. 

3. Czech Republic- I'll confess that, after the draw was made, I had Scotland to finish third here. The Czechs had been average for a while and hadn't impressed me at all in recent qualifying campaigns or at Euro 2016. However, in the past year the Czechs have definitely improved, particularly with the emergence of Tomas Soucek as a strong presence in the midfield. Overall I think it nudges them above the Scots for me. Just. 

4. Scotland- I like this Scotland team. They're the best Scotland team I've seen since... ok I started following football in the early 00s so this is the best Scotland team I've seen. Plus, in Steve Clarke, they have even managed to snag themselves a competent manager (for once). It's a shame that they're in a tough group, they are possibly the best side I've put down to finish fourth in a group (with a nod to a decent Hungary side in Group F). It's an even bigger shame that we won't get to enjoy a rare England-Scotland game at a major tournament with a capacity crowd. They're definitely capable of sneaking through to the last 16. 

Group E

1. Spain- This isn't a great Spain side and I don't really back them to win the tournament. Laporte's transfer to their national team helps them solve a glaring defensive weakness but I still don't really know where the penetration is coming from with Spain. They have good attackers but nobody really stands out to me as a "I can win you a tournament" type player. Still, they have a good midfield and a competent manager in Luis Enrique so they should top their group and do ok before getting knocked out by the first big fish they face. 

2. Sweden- Poland against Sweden is another close call for me. Poland have Lewandowski but Sweden have the better overall side. Overall, I think Sweden are more likely to finish ahead of the Poles but the Poles are more likely to produce a random good performance to knock one of the tournament favourites out. Plus I remember how teams were able to nullify Lewandowski in 2018. So I'll give it to Sweden. They're always decent defensively and players like Forsberg, Isak and Ibrahimovic give them a good attacking threat. Plus I still remember the role they played in eliminating Holland then Italy then Germany for the 2018 World Cup. 

3. Poland- Poland, with the exception of Euro 2016, have generally underachieved at recent tournaments. They have Lewandowski... but the rest of their squad doesn't hugely convince me. Still they're a good team and they should get through to the last 16. They're quite unpredictable though, if they click they could be a surprise package. If Lewandowski gets nullified they could crash out early. 

4. Slovakia- I'll be honest, Slovakia do not inspire with... anything as a side. They're a very average team and the other three sides in the group should be able to deal with them fairly comfortably. Slovakia, to me, appear to be a side on the decline from the Hamsik generation. 

Group F

1. Portugal- If any side will have benefited from the extra year, it's Portugal. They did not convince in qualifying but a lot of their players are entering this season after strong domestic seasons and a few of their younger players are just starting to find form. I think Portugal are my favourites to win the tournament. They have a strong defence, a strong set of attacking players and a competent manager in Fernando Santos. It's difficult to see what their weak link is at the moment. Beyond the fact that this is a horrible, horrible group to be in. 

2. France- The reigning World champions and my second favourites. What is there to say about the French at this point? Dangerous on the break with a reliably solid defence. They can win a tight game 1-0, they can win an end-to-end thriller and they can even simply dominate the midfield and pick you off at their leisure. I have them below Portugal as I think a couple of their players are slightly past their best. Only a little bit though. And they do have Mbappe who could be crucial in the latter stages. 

3. Germany- Still a good team but an iffy defence puts them below Portugal and France. Plus, in this group, I would not want to start with the Portugal and France games. The Germans would probably be better off starting with the Hungarians to allow them to get three points on the board early. Still, if they can get past the group stages they could turn into a force in this tournament. Particularly as one unlucky group winner may have to play them in the last 16. I also don't really trust Low, I think his heyday as a manager is past. Plus recent poor performances (6-1 against Spain, North Macedonia, some terrible Nations League results, the last World Cup) don't inspire me with any confidence. 

4. Hungary- I don't know who Hungary pissed off to have landed with this group. I mean, you could not have had a harder group for them than this. A decent side who would be relatively competitive in any other group. But not in this one sadly. An early elimination for the Hungarians. I hear Dominik Szoboszlai is one to watch. 

[GunmaN1905]

Great post.

As for Italy, back-line is questionable.

Florenzia, Calabria, Di Lorenzo, Darmian all all decent RB options, depending on the tactical setup.

CB positions are where it gest interesting and Mancini should show some guts.
Chiellini is a former player, one of all-time greats, but he's done.
Bonucci is 34 and has been nothing short of awful this season, but the problem is that other options are also questionable.
Roma's Mancini is also error-prone and Acerbi is also old and on decline.
Romagnoli lost his place to Tomori and he should definitely not be starting. Bastoni should be the definitive starter, best Italian CB this season by far.
On the left there's another  hole. Spinazzola is always injured and Emerson is a non-factor at Chelsea. But as we all know, that could be an advantage due to ridiculous schedule this season.

Barella and Verratti should be defnitive midfield starters. Locatelli or Jorginho for the third position. Maybe Pellegrini, but Mancini used him as a winger.

Insignie-Chiesa on the wings and Immobile/Belotti up front.

If Mancini manages to sort the defense out, Italy could be really dangerous because there's no real pressure on them.

 

Croatia? I don't expect that much because Dalić is just a lucky man who has no clue how he got to WC final.
Question marks are if Vrsaljko can get himself into shape and Dalić's CB selection. If Ćaleta-Car starts ahead of Vida or Lovren.
Rangers' Barišić will start on the left, with Kovačić-Brozović-Modrić midfield. Perišić and Rebić are in decent form on the wings and Kramarić recovered from his knee injury.
I actually think that this upcoming generation has way more depth than the old one (28+), but you can't replace Rakitić and Modrić afterwards just like that.

But due to Dalić, I can't see anything past first knockout round being a thing. Second place in the group pretty much guarantees a duel against Portugal or France.
Game against England can be decisive. Easier opponent than those two.

 

Btw, I think it's going to be between Ukraine and Holland for first in C. Austria are nowhere close. Wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine gets first place.

Edited May 13, 2021 by GunmaN1905

[skybluedave]

It would be good, maybe this thread or another where people predict (sensibly) teams starting 11. Maybe not England as that's done to death. But fans of other nations put up likely starting 11s

[sjg11]

16 hours ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Great post.

As for Italy, back-line is questionable.

Florenzia, Calabria, Di Lorenzo, Darmian all all decent RB options, depending on the tactical setup.

CB positions are where it gest interesting and Mancini should show some guts.
Chiellini is a former player, one of all-time greats, but he's done.
Bonucci is 34 and has been nothing short of awful this season, but the problem is that other options are also questionable.
Roma's Mancini is also error-prone and Acerbi is also old and on decline.
Romagnoli lost his place to Tomori and he should definitely not be starting. Bastoni should be the definitive starter, best Italian CB this season by far.
On the left there's another  hole. Spinazzola is always injured and Emerson is a non-factor at Chelsea. But as we all know, that could be an advantage due to ridiculous schedule this season.

Barella and Verratti should be defnitive midfield starters. Locatelli or Jorginho for the third position. Maybe Pellegrini, but Mancini used him as a winger.

Insignie-Chiesa on the wings and Immobile/Belotti up front.

If Mancini manages to sort the defense out, Italy could be really dangerous because there's no real pressure on them.

 

Croatia? I don't expect that much because Dalić is just a lucky man who has no clue how he got to WC final.
Question marks are if Vrsaljko can get himself into shape and Dalić's CB selection. If Ćaleta-Car starts ahead of Vida or Lovren.
Rangers' Barišić will start on the left, with Kovačić-Brozović-Modrić midfield. Perišić and Rebić are in decent form on the wings and Kramarić recovered from his knee injury.
I actually think that this upcoming generation has way more depth than the old one (28+), but you can't replace Rakitić and Modrić afterwards just like that.

But due to Dalić, I can't see anything past first knockout round being a thing. Second place in the group pretty much guarantees a duel against Portugal or France.
Game against England can be decisive. Easier opponent than those two.

 

Btw, I think it's going to be between Ukraine and Holland for first in C. Austria are nowhere close. Wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine gets first place.

On the Italians- I broadly agree. This is a decent Italy side with a good manager who have had good recent results. My issue is... a lack of absolute top quality at both ends of the pitch. Italy still have a good clutch of defensive players but I'm not sure that any of them (possibly excepting Bastoni) are truly at the level which, let's say, Chiellini and Bonucci were about 5 to 10 years ago. At the top end of the pitch, Insigne, Chiesa, Immobile and Belotti are all very good players. But none of them really stand out as being truly special or the type of player who can really propel you to win a tournament. That being said, the Italians on paper should have a relatively straightforward draw so that could definitely help them spring a shock. 

The next Croatian generation may have more depth... but in an international tournament I value having Rakitic, Modric, Mandzukic and Perisic in their prime over having a number of players who are a step or two down in quality but can fill in if someone is injured. Frankly, at a major tournament, if your top 3/4 players are injured you're probably not gonna win it regardless of who you are. 

[sjg11]

45 minutes ago, skybluedave said:

It would be good, maybe this thread or another where people predict (sensibly) teams starting 11. Maybe not England as that's done to death. But fans of other nations put up likely starting 11s

I'm happy for this thread to be used as a general predictions thread if people want to use it for that. I'll be personally using it to post my thoughts as the tournament progresses. 

[Muttley84]

Wonder what the odds are at betting agencies that the tournament will be won by a team starting in Group F? I can see that as the most likely result, with the favorite order being for me 1. France, 2. Portugal, 3. Germany. Hungary was rather unlucky to land here. I can also see Italy, Belgium and Denmark doing nice results in the tournament. I see no way in which England could ever win it (despite the positive comments on this forum which is very UK-dominated), and other disappointments could be Spain and Holland. 

Like the whole season beyond us it is going to be a very strange tournament, and to be fair I feel little to no excitement for it to start.

[Yuko]

The way the system is set up, predictions will just go out of the window. You will end up playing with a 3rd placed team, the path is not predetermined. In the past you know that if say Italy and Germany topped their groups, they'd play each other in the final. Now that's gone and we can have a 2nd placed team against a 3rd placed team from the group reach the final! 

 

I would give Italy very high chances to go far if Verratti is fit, but it looks unlikely even if Mancini is hopeful. Their defense is not in great shape, especially if the old guard will be used, but there's no team out there with a solid defensive line anyway.

Assuming everything goes as expected, the make or break game will be versus Belgium in Munich for the quarters. I think Belgium is very talented but lacks in mentality and their depth is limited. They cannot afford to lose De Bruyne or have Hazard completely out of shape.

 

I'd like to see the Dutch do well, it's been a while! Their group looks doable but they don't really know who they face next. Could be one of Germany/France/Portugal for example. Same applies for any of those three, if they face the Dutch next, they could be out, so cannot really say much about their odds. 

I know people expect Portugal to do very well, but I think they will struggle to go far.

 

England is in a tricky spot. Should be an easy group win imo, Croatia is lacking this year. Perisic and Mandzukic are very important leaders for them and they're not up to the task anymore, Modric is getting older. Their midfielder is strong but that's about it. Topping the group should be easy for England, the problem is what happens right after. Runners up of Group F. So any of Germany, Portugal or France. Wembley or not, that's not a fixture you'd expect England to win. 

Silly enough, if England ends up 2nd, they will play the 2nd placed team of Spain's group instead, so unless Spain doesn't do the job, it's going to be one of Sweden, Slovakia or Poland and neither should scare England. 

 

What a messed up system.... 

[sjg11]

22 hours ago, Muttley84 said:

Wonder what the odds are at betting agencies that the tournament will be won by a team starting in Group F? I can see that as the most likely result, with the favorite order being for me 1. France, 2. Portugal, 3. Germany. Hungary was rather unlucky to land here. I can also see Italy, Belgium and Denmark doing nice results in the tournament. I see no way in which England could ever win it (despite the positive comments on this forum which is very UK-dominated), and other disappointments could be Spain and Holland. 

Like the whole season beyond us it is going to be a very strange tournament, and to be fair I feel little to no excitement for it to start.

I can certainly see how England could win this tournament. We have a talented set of forwards, midfielders and full-backs. We have a CB who has been top quality for City this season in John Stones. If Maguire is fit, our outfield players will be a match for anyone in the tournament. 

Not to say the England side aren't capable of falling short of expectations. We have a poor selection of GKs and a manager who isn't entirely trusted in relation to his in-game management. There are weaknesses in the squad. But there are also plenty of reasons to be optimistic. 

[sjg11]

8 hours ago, Yuko said:

The way the system is set up, predictions will just go out of the window. You will end up playing with a 3rd placed team, the path is not predetermined. In the past you know that if say Italy and Germany topped their groups, they'd play each other in the final. Now that's gone and we can have a 2nd placed team against a 3rd placed team from the group reach the final! 

 

I would give Italy very high chances to go far if Verratti is fit, but it looks unlikely even if Mancini is hopeful. Their defense is not in great shape, especially if the old guard will be used, but there's no team out there with a solid defensive line anyway.

Assuming everything goes as expected, the make or break game will be versus Belgium in Munich for the quarters. I think Belgium is very talented but lacks in mentality and their depth is limited. They cannot afford to lose De Bruyne or have Hazard completely out of shape.

 

I'd like to see the Dutch do well, it's been a while! Their group looks doable but they don't really know who they face next. Could be one of Germany/France/Portugal for example. Same applies for any of those three, if they face the Dutch next, they could be out, so cannot really say much about their odds. 

I know people expect Portugal to do very well, but I think they will struggle to go far.

 

England is in a tricky spot. Should be an easy group win imo, Croatia is lacking this year. Perisic and Mandzukic are very important leaders for them and they're not up to the task anymore, Modric is getting older. Their midfielder is strong but that's about it. Topping the group should be easy for England, the problem is what happens right after. Runners up of Group F. So any of Germany, Portugal or France. Wembley or not, that's not a fixture you'd expect England to win. 

Silly enough, if England ends up 2nd, they will play the 2nd placed team of Spain's group instead, so unless Spain doesn't do the job, it's going to be one of Sweden, Slovakia or Poland and neither should scare England. 

 

What a messed up system.... 

1. Agreed, usually I would stick my head above the parapet to make knockout predictions as well, but that is impossible with the 24 team format so it will have to wait until after the group stages when the tournament tree should become a bit clearer. 

2. Also agreed that England are in a tricky spot if they finish first or second and have to face one of the Group F sides. Portugal and France are sides best avoided by anyone in this tournament. To be fair, I would back England against Germany (depending on injuries). Both sides have talented forwards but I rate the English defence above the German defence and England have been playing better than Germany over the past few years. 

3. I thought we were still paired with second in Group F if we finished second? I thought we had a shot at Group E if we finished third and got through (which is obviously a bad idea for a whole host of reasons). 

4. I don't really rate the Dutch. No Van Dijk hurts them and I have no faith in De Boer as a coach. Plus they refuse to play Weghorst despite his excellent season for Wolfsburg leaving them with the talented yet inconsistent Depay as their best attacking player. 

[Yuko]

Completely forgot that De Boer ended up being the Dutch NT coach.

 

As for England's potential matchup if they finish 2nd, I found that on the wiki page of the tournament:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020#Knockout_phase

 

 

28 June 2021 – Copenhagen
  
Runner-up Group D
Runner-up Group E

 

 

29 June 2021 – London
  
Winner Group D    
Runner-up Group F

[craigcwwe]

16 minutes ago, sjg11 said:

I can certainly see how England could win this tournament. We have a talented set of forwards, midfielders and full-backs. We have a CB who has been top quality for City this season in John Stones. If Maguire is fit, our outfield players will be a match for anyone in the tournament. 

Not to say the England side aren't capable of falling short of expectations. We have a poor selection of GKs and a manager who isn't entirely trusted in relation to his in-game management. There are weaknesses in the squad. But there are also plenty of reasons to be optimistic. 

I expect we'll get KO'd in the first KO round by one of France, Germany or Portugal. 

[Muttley84]

43 minutes ago, sjg11 said:

We have a talented set of forwards, midfielders and full-backs. We have a CB who has been top quality for City this season in John Stones. If Maguire is fit, our outfield players will be a match for anyone in the tournament. 

Can't argue with that, the players are not lacking talent, but you still need a real team to win it. From the outside it looks to me that when the England squad gets together there are to many stars and divas, the media and social media spotlight is so high on them, and some of them are also behaving like kids or brats. And I have serious doubts that Southgate is the man to keep the group under control and make a real team out of them.

That is why they aren't my favorites, but France and Portugal are. You can see Deschamps and Fernando Santos building some cohesion on the similar talented players, and also removing those who did not fit well with the group. They feel more like a TEAM to me. 

Of course, given how bad I am in the prediction leagues around here I can be also dead wrong.

[Carambau]

Looks like Muller is back in the squad for Germany according to BILD

[XuluBak]

9 minutes ago, Carambau said:

Looks like Muller is back in the squad for Germany according to BILD

Asinine that he was ever out. 

[craigcwwe]

5 hours ago, XuluBak said:

Asinine that he was ever out. 

Low and his stubbornness. 

He shouldn't even have this summer's Euro's in charge of the team imo. 

[sjg11]

On 16/05/2021 at 21:51, Yuko said:

Completely forgot that De Boer ended up being the Dutch NT coach.

 

As for England's potential matchup if they finish 2nd, I found that on the wiki page of the tournament:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020#Knockout_phase

 

 

28 June 2021 – Copenhagen
  
Runner-up Group D
Runner-up Group E

 

 

29 June 2021 – London
  
Winner Group D    
Runner-up Group F

Ah yeah you’re right but with the caveat that if we finish second then we face the top side in Group F in the last 8. So not much better really. 

[sjg11]

On 16/05/2021 at 22:28, Muttley84 said:

Can't argue with that, the players are not lacking talent, but you still need a real team to win it. From the outside it looks to me that when the England squad gets together there are to many stars and divas, the media and social media spotlight is so high on them, and some of them are also behaving like kids or brats. And I have serious doubts that Southgate is the man to keep the group under control and make a real team out of them.

That is why they aren't my favorites, but France and Portugal are. You can see Deschamps and Fernando Santos building some cohesion on the similar talented players, and also removing those who did not fit well with the group. They feel more like a TEAM to me. 

Of course, given how bad I am in the prediction leagues around here I can be also dead wrong.

I cannot disagree that I have more faith in Deschamps and Santos than in Southgate. My issue with Southgate more relates to in game management rather than a Capello-esque failure to control the squad. Southgate’s man management seems fine to me. 

[Yuko]

2 minutes ago, sjg11 said:

Ah yeah you’re right but with the caveat that if we finish second then we face the top side in Group F in the last 8. So not much better really. 

Given how it's a round later and those sides are of similar quality, I think it's better to have whatever chances you'll have in the last 8 than the last 16. It's one game anyway. 

Quarter finals after winning the group and then following match gets you Spain anyway... 

 

So England vs Germany/France/Portugal, whoever wins plays Spain. 

Isn't it better to play someone like Austria in the 16 and then maybe one of France/Portugal/Germany? Sounds better to me. 

 

But getting complacent to end up 2nd may send you 3rd in these situations. 

[sjg11]

3 minutes ago, Yuko said:

Given how it's a round later and those sides are of similar quality, I think it's better to have whatever chances you'll have in the last 8 than the last 16. It's one game anyway. 

Quarter finals after winning the group and then following match gets you Spain anyway... 

 

So England vs Germany/France/Portugal, whoever wins plays Spain. 

Isn't it better to play someone like Austria in the 16 and then maybe one of France/Portugal/Germany? Sounds better to me. 

 

But getting complacent to end up 2nd may send you 3rd in these situations. 

Exactly. Trying to play for second is playing with fire. Maybe if we finished with Croatia and had already beaten Czechs and Scotland it would be an option. But starting with Croatia should probably kill that idea. 

[sjg11]

Sjg's predictions- Euro 2020/1- Round One

Turkey vs Italy- Rome

This is a tough opener and it will prove to a decent test of the Italians' early credentials to challenge for the tournament. Turkey have recently shown an ability to pick up good results against Europe's traditional heavyweights and they are more than capable of getting a result in Rome. From my perspective, the main test here will be how the Italian forwards penetrate a disciplined Turkish defence. Chiesa, Immobile and Insigne are all good players but none of them are truly top-drawer and the Turks are capable of frustrating Italy. Soyuncu and Merih Demiral are a good CB pairing for Turkey. 

Overall, I think home advantage makes me conclude that the Italians will eke out a narrow win here but I would not be surprised if Turkey manage to get a draw. I expect a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Narrow Italy win

Wales vs Switzerland- Baku

Wales really don't impress me at the moment- I think they're an average side whose best players' best days are in the past with a significant amount of off-field turbulence. A year ago Wales might have been able to provide a more effective obstacle for the other three sides in the group but I don't have a lot of faith in them here. Switzerland are one of the most reliably decent yet unspectacular sides in Europe and this is the type of game which, historically, they tend to win pretty comfortably without ever excelling. 

Prediction: Switzerland win

Denmark vs Finland- Copenhagen

The Danes are a strong side with a good record in recent international fixtures. Finland are novices at this level despite an excellent qualifying campaign. Finland are by no means no-hopers... but the key game for them will be the game against Russia in Saint-Petersburg. I can't see them stopping Denmark in the opener. 

Prediction: Denmark win

Belgium vs Russia- Saint-Petersburg

These two sides met in qualifying and Belgium won both games with considerable ease. De Bruyne's fitness may stall Belgium slightly but they should still have too much for an average Russian side who will do well to reach the second round. 

Prediction: Belgium win

Austria- North Macedonia- Bucharest

I think there is a decent chance that, in one of their three games, the Macedonians will get a result against someone. There is a reasonable chance that this will happen against the Austrians... but Austria are a solid side with a few good players. I think, on balance, I have to predict an Austrian victory. They should prove to be too much for an awkward Macedonia side. 

Prediction: Austria win

Holland- Ukraine- Amsterdam

I really don't rate Holland under Frank De Boer. I think this is a weak group and I think they will get through it but I think they're vulnerable to a couple of bad results/performances while doing so. Ukraine were good enough to finish ahead of Portugal and Serbia in the qualifiers and have a few decent players. I think I might go for a tepid draw here. 

Prediction: Draw

England vs Croatia- London

If this game was on neutral soil in a tournament opener I would probably have predicted a reasonably entertaining and engaging draw. This is a strong England side though and, frankly, England's record at Wembley is very solid. I think these factors probably give England a significant edge though. This game is similar to the Turkey-Italy game for me (not in terms of the game's style- I expect this one to be significantly more entertaining- more in the sense of a good contender for the tournament facing solid opposition in their first match where home advantage probably gives them the edge)

Prediction: England win

Scotland vs Czech Republic- Glasgow

It's a real shame that Scotland's first appearance at a major tournament for 23 years will not be greeted by the full Hampden roar. It's probably a good thing if you're Czech though, as I reckon an improving Czech side are capable of getting a result from an empty Glasgow. These two sides look pretty evenly matched- I would maybe give the Czechs the edge on paper but home advantage does still give Scotland a small boost. I think a draw is the likely outcome. 

Prediction: Draw

Poland vs Slovakia- Saint Petersburg

Poland are a good side. Slovakia do not inspire me at all. Poland win. Hopefully Lewandowski will be able to get his tournament going with a couple of goals here. 

Prediction: Poland win

Spain vs Sweden- Seville

Spain are a decent side with a decent coach but I don't think Sweden are a good opener for them. Where Spain struggle it tends to be with penetrating a deep, well-organised defensive block. Sweden historically are very capable of frustrating sides with bigger reputations in a deep, well-organised defensive block. A draw here I think. 

Prediction: Draw

Hungary vs Portugal- Budapest

Poor Hungary. No side in football history has ever had a tougher first round draw than they have here. Portugal to win. It's fortunate that Portugal start with the Hungarians, if they do their job and get the win in Budapest it takes a significant amount of pressure off of them before their games against France and Germany. 

Prediction: Portugal win

France vs Germany- Munich

Germany are, in my view, the weakest of the three big sides in this group. But they do have home advantage. However, the German defence has been leaking goals for a number of years now and, if a side are built to exploit that while finding a way to limit Germany's offensive talent, it's France. 

Prediction: France win

[GunmaN1905]

I'd go with Ukraine win over Holland and I can see Macedonia getting a draw, others are more or less spot on.

[Baptista_8]

More or less spot on

They're predictions mate

[GunmaN1905]

4 minutes ago, Baptista_8 said:

More or less spot on

They're predictions mate

I meant the analysis, not the final outcome he predicted.

[sjg11]

50 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

I'd go with Ukraine win over Holland and I can see Macedonia getting a draw, others are more or less spot on.

Ukraine-Holland... was a difficult one to predict. On paper, even without van Dijk, there is a lot of talent in the Dutch squad. But I have no faith in De Boer to bring anything out of them. So... I could see Ukraine winning because Holland are a disorganised mess. I could see Holland winning on a couple of moments of individual quality. Overall, I felt it was pretty evenly matched. 

I can see Macedonia getting a draw but if you played that game 10 times I think an Austria win would just about be the most likely outcome. 

[sjg11]

Italy 3-0 Turkey

• For the first time in a while I think Wales might actually have a reasonable shot at finishing third in the group. It's difficult to fully assess one game in isolation (and an excellent Italy performance is an important factor in judging this one) but Turkey were pretty awful. Yilmaz was completely smothered by Bonucci and Chiellini and the Turks never looked like they were capable of successfully breaking through the Italian press. 
• Defensively, Turkey were ok in the first-half but the lack of presence in midfield meant their defence were far too deep with no effective outlet to push the Italians back and cause them problems. In such circumstances it was inevitable that the Italians would eventually break through which they did after some tired Turkish defending led to a Demiral own-goal. 
• Once Turkey fell behind their response was extremely tired and they fell to pieces defensively, allowing the Italians to pick them off at will with further goals from Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne. 
• Italy were excellent. Their pressing was brilliant and you can clearly see the impact that a top coach like Roberto Mancini has had on this Italian squad. Italy look focused with a clear idea of their system and style of play. Turkey never even looked like seriously troubling Donnarumma and the Italians swarmed around a weak Turkish midfield. 
• Insigne and Spinazzola were excellent in the second-half in particular. If Insigne can maintain the form he showed in the opener throughout the tournament then he could be the high-class attacking player that may allow the Italians to unlock a tight game in the knockout stages against the tournament's better sides. For years Insigne has never quite found his form in the shirt of the Azzurri so it is refreshing to see that changing. 
• I'm interested to see how a more functional offence could cause problems for Bonucci and Chiellini. If there is a weakpoint for the Italians, given their style of play, that could be it. 

[sjg11]

Denmark 0-1 Finland

• I don't want to talk about this one too much beyond wishing Christian Eriksen well and noting the brilliant response of the medical staff, officials and the Danish players. This game really should not have been restarted today for the sake of protecting the Danish players. 
• Credit to Finland for winning their first ever game at a major tournament. 

Switzerland 1-1 Wales

• I'll admit that things are starting to fall into place for Wales- Turkey started poorly and they got a decent point against the Swiss in Baku today. They may yet be able to prove me wrong and find a route through to the knockout stages. 
• Danny Ward was excellent for Wales today- Switzerland really should have scored more than once but for a strong goalkeeping performance. Dan James was a threat down the left flank for much of the afternoon and Kieffer Moore took his chance in the second-half when it came. 
• That being said, Wales were definitely the weaker of the two sides on the basis of this performance. Morrell and Allen really struggled to assert themselves in any meaningful way allowing the Swiss to apply consistent pressure to the Welsh backline when they were in possession. Wales' only alternative outlet often seemed to be a long ball to Kieffer Moore who was then forced to battle gamely against the three Swiss defenders (who generally marshalled Moore pretty effectively throughout the 90 minutes) and they really struggled to do much offensively, particularly in the opening-half where the Swiss really should have been 1-0 up at the interval. 
• Switzerland will be kicking themselves, they should have won this match. They weren't clinical enough in the final-half despite a strong performance from Breel Embolo. Haris Seferovic in particular was wasteful and (aside from some excellent set-pieces) Shaqiri was largely anonymous. 
• Once they did take the lead they then took their foot off the pedal. I question Petkovic's in-game management, I think bringing Zakaria on was sensible (Zakaria was a good player to add fresh legs to the engine room) but maybe they needed to replace Shaqiri with another attacking player rather than Zakaria in order to maintain their forward momentum. They allowed Wales to build a little bit of pressure and they were punished for it and I can't help but think that if the Swiss had just kept trying to keep possession and break down the Welsh defence they probably would have got a second goal relatively quickly after Embolo's opener. 
• Both sides remain very much alive in the competition and will be looking to their game with Turkey to put some more points on the board and to hopefully seal a place in the last-16. 

Belgium 3-0 Russia

• I've said for a while that I think Russia are a very average side and Belgium did an excellent job of proving me right tonight. Lukaku in particular was excellent, gobbling up the two chances that came his way when he was able to run into the space behind Semenov in the Russian defence. 
• Russia's defensive players look pretty poor and Shunin really doesn't convince in goal- his error led to the Meunier goal and he was caught flat-footed for the third goal as well. 
• Russia also don't look particularly well-coached. Beyond long-balls to Artem Dzyuba and set-pieces I'm not sure what the main offensive strategy was for the Russians. Too often Russian forward players would try to engage in a press and the midfield and defence wouldn't push up to constrict the space and help to make the press effective. Given the slowness of the Russian defence and given that they were up against Lukaku, dropping deep wasn't a terrible idea but if you're going to drop deep and stay compact you need the entire side to be doing it (see Finland earlier) not just your defensive players. Otherwise it becomes too easy for Belgium's offensive players to find space and start causing havoc. 
• Belgium largely just got the job done- it was impressive to see that their offensive unit was still firing very effectively even with an injured De Bruyne and an out-of-form E Hazard. 
• That being said, the Vertonghen injury would worry me if I were Belgium. Thomas Vermaelen is a shadow of the defender he once was and Boyata is a liability. The Belgian backline does look shaky and the better offences in the tournament could definitely exploit that weakness later in the tournament. 
• Lukaku is an excellent striker who was unfairly criticised during his time in English football. He has also been a very good goalscorer and is capable of bullying defenders in a way that many strikers simply aren't capable of. 

[sjg11]

Croatia 0-1 England

• The early kick-offs at major tournaments are rarely the best games at a tournament- the summer heat in the middle of the afternoon often serves to sap games of a level of intensity which other games in the tournament will have. This was definitely the case at Wembley today. 
• That being said, I was pleased with England's start to the tournament. I can see the more negative sections of the English fanbase/media negatively comparing our opener with Italy and Belgium but Croatia are better than Russia and Turkey are and are not the type of side who usually get beaten 3 or 4-0. In fact, aside from a couple of Capello-era qualifiers, I struggle to think of Croatia ever really being thrashed at a major tournament. 
• Broadly, when I judge an England performance, I look at the chances conceded versus the chances created. Overall, that balance was pretty significantly in England's favour today- Croatia created nothing all game and England created enough that I'm comfortable saying we deserved the win. It is easy to focus sometimes, as a fan, on good attacking play but defending is half the game and this was a very strong defensive performance by England. It was a pleasing start to the tournament and it definitely provides us with a good base to build on moving forward. And it allows us to beat the side who knocked us out in 2018 which is always a positive way to start the next tournament!
• From a tactical point of view, I don't really get the decision to play Trippier at left-back. Playing Trippier over Walker is definitely a reasonable decision for Southgate to make, particularly given the lack of another great set-piece taker in the side. But Shaw or Chilwell should be starting at left-back in this tournament- both of them are entering into the tournament in good form and if you have two good left-backs then there's no need to stick a right-back out there. 
• Other than that I was content with the line-up. It's not my dream England team but I think the side worked pretty well overall. I think some of the criticism of the selection (other than the Trippier point) was a little bit harsh. 
• Also nice to see Sterling and Phillips proving people wrong. They are two players who definitely have a lot to contribute on the field for England and some of the pre-tournament criticism of the two of them has been a little bit overblown. I'm not sure they should be guaranteed to make the starting line-up but they're both reasonable selections by Southgate, as shown by the goal today and Phillips' general performance in the midfield. 
• Croatia looked like a good side but there seemed to be a big Mario Mandzukic-shaped hole at the centre of their attack. Kramaric is a good attacking player but he just doesn't have the same presence that Mandzukic has in the final third. Leading to a lot of neat technical play without much end product and a very comfortable evening for Jordan Pickford. Croatia need to tweak things before the Czech game. 

Austria 3-1 North Macedonia

• This was a surprisingly entertaining game- both sides really wanted the three points here and really went for each other. It was nice to see and this tournament is certainly proving to be less cagey than 2016 was so far (although tbf there is a reason why 2016 is the worst international tournament I have ever seen). There's still some way to go before 2020/1 becomes a classic tournament but it's starting to warm up nicely a couple of days into the tournament. 
• Austria deserved the three points here, they created enough to win the game and the Macedonian goal was a bit flukey after a horrific error by Daniel Bachmann. They looked like a decent side without really doing anything to convince me that they are going to have a serious impact on the tournament. 
• That being said, and I know he's being pretty heavily criticised in Austria, but credit to Franco Foda for making a subtle tactical tweak which allowed Austria to win the game. Alaba really wasn't impacting the game from the centre of the back three so swapping him and Hinteregger (moving Alaba to LCB) allowed him to start bombing forward as an overlapping CB while linking up nicely with Ulmer and Sabitzer. Given that the second Austrian goal came from a great Alaba cross, I would like to see them start with that system in future games. Particularly with Sasa Kalajdzic in the box to feed off that type of service. It could lead to an Austrian side which starts to look like a more serious force in this competition. Hinteregger is a solid defender who should be more than capable of covering for Alaba if he moves forward and I think it's a bit of a waste of Alaba's talent to have him as your most defensive outfield player. He can probably influence the game more if he's moving higher up the pitch. 
• North Macedonia played well enough for their first game at a major tournament. They have some decent players (Alioski, Elmas, the evergreen Goran Pandev etc) but are a step or two below the level of quality that is really required at a major tournament. Still, it's nice to see Pandev scoring at a major tournament given that he is one of those players who seems to have been around for ever at this point. I don't think they're ready to progress in this tournament but it will be a good experience for them moving forward and they're not completely outclassed at this level. 

Holland 3-2 Ukraine

• I feel for poor old Mykolenko (the Ukrainian LB)- Denzel Dumfries absolutely destroyed him tonight and he had an absolutely awful night at LB. There is nothing worse than producing a performance like that at a major tournament. I wonder if Zubkov might have been able to protect him more effectively, Marlos did not sense the danger that Dumfries was posing at all either (which was presumably he was subbed back off again after replacing Zubkov). Bushchan also had a bit of a shocker for the third goal. 
• The Dutch looked like a side with a lot of individual talent but they don't look particularly well-coached. There is a vulnerability in this Dutch side which Ukraine were able to exploit a couple of times tonight. One of the better sides in this tournament could easily punish Holland quite heavily if they repeat some of the basic errors they made at times tonight. 
• Frenkie De Jong had an excellent game in the midfield tonight- if it weren't for Dumfries traumatising Mykolenko he would easily have earned MOTM. It was a complete midfield performance- he was excellent both with and without the ball tonight. If there is a big hope for this Dutch side it's having such a classy performer in the centre of the park. 
• The Dutch definitely have a defensive weakness, De Vrij is a good defender but Yarmolenko had a lot of fun in the space behind Van Aanholt/Wijndal and Daley Blind didn't do a brilliant job of stopping him. There is a potential vulnerability down the left-side of the Dutch defence I think. I would also be interested to see what happens if more pressure is put on Timber by another side- he was protected by Dumfries having his way with the Ukrainian left-flank tonight and that won't be the case in the future. If Alaba is allowed to roam from LCB in their next match that could test the Dutch right-flank a bit and I'll probably learn more about them from that. 
• Ukraine also have defensive vulnerabilities- this is a young and inexperienced defence and it showed tonight. The three goals they conceded were a catalogue of basic errors which you cannot make at a major tournament. Mykolenko in particular had an awful night and Bushchan had a mixed evening (a couple of great saves mixed with a couple of pretty bad mistakes). Ukraine's defence will cost them in this tournament at some point. They also need to try to get Malinovskyi and Zinchenko into more dangerous areas more consistently in the future. 
• Still, there were plenty of bright spots in the Ukrainian performance. They had a real counter-attacking threat all match and Yarmolenko and Yaremchuk were both excellent and were a real handful for the Dutch defence. If he's in the mood, Yarmolenko is a really classy performer and the Ukrainians more than contributed to a brilliant game of football. Both sides should be able to navigate a path through to the last-16 but I worry about both sides in the knockout stages. 

[sjg11]

Czech Republic 2-0 Scotland

• That Patrik Schick goal is one of the great goals of Euro history. The technique to hit that ball first-time when it's running away from you from there and to lob Marshall so accurately from 45 yards... it's guaranteed to be goal of the tournament. A special, special goal and a true moment of inspiration in a tournament which, in my opinion, is looking set to be a far far more enjoyable tournament than Euro 2016 was. 
• Scotland didn't play badly here to be fair to them and on another day they could have got something from the game. I think the big issue for Scotland is that they don't have a high-class attacking player anywhere on the pitch. Their strikers work hard and the team create enough chances but nobody stands out as the type of clinical finisher you often need to separate a tight game at a major tournament. If Scotland can find a goalscorer they could become a pretty good team pretty quickly. 
• However, it must be said that this was a textbook example of how the Czechs win games of football. They are physical, they are well-organised defensively and they are a serious threat from set-pieces when given the opportunity. Overall, it's a vast improvement on their 2016 outing and my feeling that they have improved considerably over the past year is probably being borne out on the evidence of their opening game. 
• I'll admit that I have never been the biggest fan of Patrik Schick at club level. He's never scored enough goals on a consistent basis for me. But he was excellent today, both of his goals were really well finished and it goes against my general impression of him as a relatively average finisher. 
• I think Scotland missed Kieran Tierney today. Neither Cooper nor Hendry were pushing into midfield from the CB positions as effectively as Tierney would usually do and the link-up between Tierney and Robertson is usually a real strength of this Scotland team. To be honest though, speaking as an Arsenal fan, the biggest issue with Tierney is that he has a habit of being injured at bad times. It's always the risk you take when relying on a player who is a little bit injury-prone. 

Poland 1-2 Slovakia

• We need to talk about Poland at major tournaments. Every time we reach a major tournament there always seem to be a lot of people who are very confident that Poland are going to have a decent tournament and are going to reach the knockouts and be a reasonably dangerous side in the knockouts. And every time they seem to find a way to mess up in the group stages. Hell, this time I even put them below Sweden knowing that they were in dodgy form and knowing that they tend to flatter to deceive on the big stage. And they still look like they might struggle to meet the lowered bar I have set for them in this tournament. Useless, useless Poland. What a waste of a Lewandowski they are. 
• A lot of the credit for this win goes to Stefan Tarkovic (the Slovakian coach)- he completely won the tactical battle with Paulo Sousa. Hamsik and Duda as a pair of false nines worked really well and made the Polish back three practically defunct while allowing Slovakia to swamp the centre of the pitch and stop Poland finding Zielinski in the sorts of areas where he could feed Lewandowski. This left Poland reliant on the inconsistent offensive output of Jozwiak and Rybus on the flanks. Very sharp tactical set-up and I really do think this victory was testament to the effect that good coaching can have on a side at a major tournament. 
• Part of the issue for Poland is that I don't really the 3ATB suits them. For example, the 3ATB system used in this tournament really suits Austria (with Alaba at LCB, allowing him to roam from a deep position and influence the game), Scotland (assuming Tierney is fit) and the Dutch (Daley Blind and De Ligt are very capable of moving forward from a centre-back position to have a significant influence on the game). I'm not really sure that Bednarek or Bereszynski are capable of influencing the game in the same way from a deep position. Particularly today, given that Slovakia played two false nines, you had three defenders effectively marking nothing allowing the Slovakians to dominate the rest of the pitch and frustrate Poland while picking their moments to launch dangerous attacks against a high Polish line. 
• The headlines for this game are likely going to relate to Lewandowski going missing at a major tournament again. But the issue is with the Polish coaching staff and tactical set-up again at a major tournament. Lewandowski is probably the best player in the world right now. If you can't provide even average service to him it is a crime against football. He had nothing to feed off today and any striker needs a certain level of service into them in order to function successfully. 
• I regret writing Hamsik off pre-tournament, he was excellent today. Skriniar would be my man of the match though, he didn't put a foot wrong all match. 
• That being said, the one caveat in relation to this one is Krychowiak's red card. I do feel that Sousa tweaked things sufficiently at half-time that Poland were playing their way back into the match before the red card and it was a turning-point. And the first Slovakian goal came from a pretty horrific error from Szczesny who always seems to be having one of his days when playing for Poland at a major tournament. 

Spain 0-0 Sweden

• The first goalless draw of the tournament but an entertaining watch nevertheless. Both sides will walk away feeling like they should have scored a winner. Marcus Berg surely an early contender for miss of the tournament already. 
• I predicted a draw pre-game, and the second-half was pretty much in line with what I was expecting here. Spain to have a lot of possession without sufficient penetration to breach the Swedish defence and Sweden having their moments on the break but not quite enough to win the game. 
• Since Janne Andersson took over the Swedish side, I have developed a respect for their ability to form an obdurate yellow wall in front of their goal. Their side doesn't look great on paper but they are sufficiently more effective than the sum of the parts. There's a reason why I tipped them to finish second in this group over Poland- they know how to frustrate teams and how to get decent results in big games. They are also the last serious international side to play an old-school 4-4-2 (which is by no means a bad thing- I'm sure nobody wants to go back to the days of England setting up in two banks of four at major tournaments) but to their credit they pull it off consistently and they are a monumental pain in the ass to play against. So hats off to Sweden. Danielsson in particular was a rock tonight and Olsen always seems to play amazingly in a Sweden shirt (while managing to look abysmal at club level). For a side who want to play defensively, a 4-4-2 can still be an effective system and Sweden regularly prove the truth of that in games like tonight. 
• That being said, I actually felt that Sweden were poor/Spain were excellent in the first-half and I have no idea how the game was 0-0 at half-time. Spain had 3 or 4 presentable chances and they really should have taken at least one of them. Morata in particular missed a huge chance in the first-half which is criminal for a top-level striker of his experience level. 
• The Spanish pressing was excellent all night and it will make them dangerous for any side trying to face them with a higher line than the Swedes set up with tonight. When they're on it there is an intensity about this Spain side which can make them pretty frightening. They're still not a side I would want to face in this tournament. 
• Alexander Isak is a highly talented young player and is definitely one to watch for the future. When given the opportunity, he was a menace for Laporte and Pau Torres all evening. 

[sjg11]

Hungary 0-3 Portugal

• I'm not sure that it was wise to have a full-capacity stadium in Budapest for this one... but I will say that it was great to see a full crowd at a football match again. It has been missed over the past year. 
• Portugal looked pretty good in their opening game- the scoreline in the end probably reflected the balance of play. I expect Portugal to be more expansive in this tournament than they have been in previous tournaments and I think that was borne out in their opener as they pushed higher than I would ordinarily expect them to. 
• Portugal have a lot of attacking talent and they looked dangerous from the opening whistle here. They really should have been in front long before Guerreiro's deflected effort gave them the lead. The main thing I noticed from a Portuguese perspective is that they were willing to play a more direct ball if the opportunity was there to do so. Given the pace in this Portuguese side I'm not sure that I would want to play a high line against them, I could see such an approach causing problems for teams trying to deal with Portugal later in the tournament. 
• Hungary looked like what they are, an ok side who are out of their depth in a fiendishly difficult group. They looked relatively well-organised and they are definitely a physical side but they didn't really look like they were capable of progressing from this group even with the backing of their home support. I felt Orban played really well for 80 minutes so it was harsh that the first goal deflected in off him and that he was at fault for the penalty for the second. 

France 1-0 Germany

• France beat Germany relatively comfortably here and never really looked like they had to get out of second gear to do so. Defensively, France were exceptional and the German attackers didn't have a sniff all game, particularly after a sloppy own goal had given the French the lead. 
• I expected the French forward line, particularly with Mbappe's pace, to cause the German high line serious problems in this game. That was largely borne out here as the Germans were fortunate that they only conceded once given how often the French almost released Mbappe into a dangerous area of the pitch to extend the lead. The Germans defensive approach to this game didn't really work for me- in my experience where the French tend to struggle a bit is when they're expected to push higher and take the initiative in a match. 
• What I didn't expect is for the German offence to be nullified to the extent that it was here. Given the amount of creative talent the Germans have it was really disappointing to see how comfortably the French defence controlled them. I expected Germany to be shaky defensively in this tournament. I did not expect them to look soporific in the final third. I need to see a huge improvement from the Germans in the second game but, at this rate, you have to assume that Low is being used as a human shield here to allow Flick to begin the serious rebuilding process (presumably with the aim of competing more successfully in Qatar in 2022 and winning the Euros on home soil in 2024) with a clean slate after a disappointing Euros has been absorbed. 
• Mbappe, Varane and Kante were the outstanding players for me tonight. Excellent performances from all three of them. Benzema also looked worryingly comfortable back in a French shirt already given that this was his first competitive match back in the fold. 
• I wish I could say that someone stood out for Germany but nobody really did. A pretty poor performance from them to be honest. 

[sjg11]

Sjg's Predictions- Euro 2020/1- Round 2

Turkey vs Wales- Baku

Neither of these sides particularly impressed me in their opening games. Turkey were decimated by a solid Italian performance in Baku while Wales, despite getting a point, looked second best against the Swiss. Overall, given that they are likely to have a reasonable amount of backing in Baku... I think I'll give this one to Turkey. I also suspect we might see a more effective Turkish side when they're pushing forward a bit more- we never really got to see what they are capable of offensively against Italy. 

Prediction: Turkey win

Italy vs Switzerland- Rome

Italy looked strong in their opening-game (in fact in general most of the bigger sides looked pretty strong in their openers- Spain were the only side to slip up and even their performance wasn't particularly bad) while the Swiss missed a huge opportunity for three points against Wales (on chances created the Swiss really should have won that match. Still, the Swiss should pose more of a challenge to Italy than Turkey did in the opening-game. Even so I expect the Italians to take the win here. 

Prediction: Italy win

Finland vs Russia- St. Petersburg

I really don't rate this Russian side. But... I think they're pretty well-suited to playing Finland. Firstly, the game is played in St Petersburg and the Russians have a decent enough home record in general. Secondly, I could see Russia's 3ATB shape nullifying the threat posed by Pukki and Pohjanpalo and potentially nullifying Finland's main outlet. Plus Finland tend to defend pretty deep which will allow Russia to put a lot of crosses into the Finnish box. With Dzyuba lurking that's a dangerous game for Finland to play. 

Prediction: Russia win

Belgium vs Denmark- Copenhagen

In ordinary circumstances, with home advantage, I could see Denmark getting a point here. But I think the mental impact of the Finland game is likely to hurt Denmark and, given Belgium's quality, I expect them to take the win here. I could see this group developing into a situation where three sides have three points behind Belgium- and that could lead to a fun final day. 

Prediction: Belgium win

North Macedonia vs Ukraine- Bucharest

I can't really see North Macedonia getting anything here. Ukraine have a decent set of attacking players and I think they'll break through the North Macedonian defence at some point in Bucharest to claim the win. 

Prediction: Ukraine win

Austria vs Holland- Amsterdam

Austria looked decent in their opening game but I think that Holland have enough to take the win here. If Austria can get Alaba on the ball in the right areas that could change though, the Dutch defence looked pretty ropey at times against Ukraine and, like Ukraine, Austria have attacking players who could exploit that. 

Prediction: Holland win

Croatia vs Czech Republic- Glasgow

A tough game to predict. I think this is a declining Croatia side and I think the Czechs are well-suited to outmuscling Croatia here (the Czechs are a physical side if nothing else). Still, Croatia have plenty of talent on paper and should benefit from playing in a cool Glasgow over the scorching London summer sun. I think a draw here- I can see Croatia dictating the play and I think they will eventually find a way through the Czech defence but I think the Czechs will score, likely from a set-piece, at some point. 

Prediction: Draw

England vs Scotland- London

It's a real shame that this is not going to be played before a full stadium. I found the reaction to Scotland's opening defeat a bit odd (they by no means played badly against the Czechs) as it was always a possibility that Scotland would struggle to pick up results in one of the tournament's tougher groups. Still, even though Scotland will give this everything they have, England should pick up the win. 

Prediction: England win

Slovakia vs Sweden- St. Petersburg

Slovakia's win over Poland was, from a tactical perspective, a really impressive opening. That being said, Sweden tend to be less flaky than Poland at major tournaments and, particularly if Kulusevski returns for them, I think they'll have too much for Slovakia here. Sweden will play more expansively here than they did against Spain. 

Prediction: Sweden win

Poland vs Spain- Seville

I expect Zielinski and Lewandowski to have more space in this match than they did against Slovakia. But I just cannot see the Polish defence managing the Spanish attack in the way that Sweden did. The Polish defence is vulnerable and I can't see Spain failing to score for two games in a row. 

Prediction: Spain win

France vs Hungary- Budapest

I mean... it might take France a while to break Hungary down but they're gonna find a way through here eventually. 

Prediction: France win

Germany vs Portugal- Munich

Broadly, I expect a similar game to Germany's opener. They will have a good amount of possession but will struggle to break through a disciplined Portuguese defence while Portugal will have lots of dangerous opportunities to counter against the German defence. 

Prediction: Portugal win

[sjg11]

Finland 0-1 Russia

• The second-half of this game was probably the first time in the tournament where I felt that the quality of the football descended to 2016 levels. I believe that 16 teams is perfect for the Euros and 32 teams is perfect for the World Cup but I also think that 2016 was a poor tournament even by the standards of a 24 team tournament. That tournament was, by a mile, the worst international tournament I have seen. The story of this tournament obviously is still being written but the early signs are more positive than in 2016 and I'm optimistic this tournament will at least go down as a good tournament even if not a great one. 
• That being said, I think Finland missed a trick against the Russians yesterday. I predicted a Russia win because I felt that Finland would drop too deep and that would allow the Russian creative mids and Dzyuba to get into the game. Once that happened, Russia would likely break Finland down either through a Dzyuba header or a moment of quality from Golovin or Miranchuk. This is pretty much exactly what happened. 
• I think Finland should have tried to press higher against the Russians from the start of the match. To put it mildly, the Russian defence looks extremely delicate and if you put serious pressure on it you will create chances against the Russians. Finland didn't do that early enough which then allowed Russia to simply keep the ball and kill the game in the second-half. Which, to Russia's credit, they did very effectively. 
• Finland have a decent set of defensive players but I think this game showed their limitations as a side. If they concede the first goal in a match it is very difficult to see how they find their way back into it, their sole offensive strategy seems to be hoping you can hit Pukki and Pohjanpalo on the break and can play them into some dangerous areas. 
• Russia look like a really poor side in this tournament and I don't expect them to have any significant impact on this tournament. This is a weak generation of Russian players and I think their performances so far reflect that. 

Turkey 0-2 Wales

• This was a really, really good game to watch- to be honest I was a little bit surprised at how much I ended up enjoying this one. Credit to both sides for an entertaining game of football. 
• Turkey are meant to have a solid defence right? Like that is meant to be their strength as a side? Because defensively they were all over the place in both of their games so far. The number of times that there has been a lack of pressure from the midfield players on the ball while the defence pushes up and tries to play a high line... it's amateurish and it is unacceptable at this level. 
• Turkey were warned when Bale played Ramsey in twice before his goal. For Wales to pull off the same move three times in the same half and to create three great chances in doing so is shocking from a Turkish perspective and they were eventually punished for it. 
• Bale and Ramsey's link-up play was excellent and was a throwback to their 2016 days- although Bale's penalty was a bit of a shocker. Danny Ward has also been really impressive in goal for the Welsh so far, picking him has proven to be an excellent decision by Rob Page.
• Turkey did have their moments though- Calhanoglu's set-pieces were a threat all game and with better finishing the Turks could definitely have found an equaliser here. Still, the difference between the two sides was in each side's defensive displays. The Welsh were organised. The Turks weren't. Thus the Welsh have effectively booked a place in the last-16. 

Italy 3-0 Switzerland

• I'll admit I didn't pay as much attention to this one as I have the other games in the tournament- was out with mates so only had an eye on it in the background. 
• Still, the Italian performance was highly impressive again- the Swiss created nothing all game and the Italians were more than capable of finding gaps in the Swiss backline. 
• Locatelli was probably the star today- his second goal was an excellent finish in a tournament which, in general, hasn't had a huge number of goals from outside the box. 
• This Italy side are dangerous and should be watched closely as they progress through the tournament. Roberto Mancini is a very good manager who is proving himself to be highly capable after being written off by some people after he left City. 
• Switzerland's performances have declined a bit from recent tournaments. They're in trouble against Turkey in their final match. 

[VamPook]

Just noticed Sweden are favourites over Slovakia tomorrow? 🤔

[sjg11]

12 hours ago, VamPook said:

Just noticed Sweden are favourites over Slovakia tomorrow? 🤔

Yeah I back Sweden. I think they're a decent side. Slovakia were excellent against Poland but that struck me as the result of their coach coming up with a great game plan rather than anything more long-term- in general their recent form hasn't been that impressive. 

[sjg11]

North Macedonia 1-2 Ukraine

• This game was a good watch between two sides who really went for the win. 
• I have a lot of respect for how the North Macedonians have approached this tournament- they haven't sat back and just tried to park the bus in games. When they have had the opportunity to attack they have put men into forward areas and tried to get the ball to them. It's nice to see, and in both their games they have been pretty competitive. 
• Ukraine have a talented set of offensive players who created a lot of good chances here. Yarmolenko in particular was really impressive. Ukraine will be a threat for anyone who faces them in this tournament and it would not surprise me if they had one big shock result in the knockout stages against someone. 
• That being said, the Ukraine defence does not particularly impress me- they really struggled against the Dutch in their opener and the Ukrainians should be disappointed at the danger the North Macedonians continued to pose throughout the second-half. I expect Ukraine to continue to entertain in this tournament. 
• This game also saw another missed penalty (and a penalty which was only scored after a rebound)- the quality of penalty-taking in this tournament so far has been extremely poor. I believe more have been saved than scored so far? To be fair, in this case I thought it was an exceptional save from Dimitrievski who looks like a solid goalkeeper for North Mac. 
• Ukraine should go through to the second round from here in my opinion- even if they narrowly lose to Austria I would imagine they would sneak through in third place with three points. Which probably means this will go down as a successful tournament for them. 

Belgium 2-1 Denmark

• I have a huge amount of respect for how Denmark approached this game and for the spirit shown in their performance. I struggle to think of a side who have been unluckier in their first two games of a major tournament than the Danes have in this tournament- everything which could have gone wrong for them has gone wrong and at the very least they didn't deserve to lose against either Finland or Belgium. 
• That being said, I do think Denmark's flaw as a side is a lack of a top-quality goalscorer. They have been in a lot of dangerous areas in both of their games so far without being able to find that finishing touch to get the necessary result. Obviously this issue is compounded by Eriksen's collapse- he would have been a fairly reliable source of goals in this tournament under normal circumstances. Still, all is far from lost for Denmark- in my opinion they are more than capable of beating a poor Russia side in their final match (and frankly I think Denmark are well-built to exploit Russia's flaws as a side- the Russian defence will be under pressure in that match and that is not good for the Russians)
• The turning point in this match was De Bruyne coming off the bench. Belgium immediately started flowing when he came on and both the assist for the first goal and the finish for the second goal were sublime. De Bruyne playing well for City has become so routine in recent years that I think we all sometimes forget exactly how good he is. 
• The Belgian defence does look shaky. None of their defenders really stand out as being top class and Meunier and Thorgan Hazard are attacking wing-backs so don't always cover for Alderweireld and Vertonghen to the extent that you would want them to. For all of their talent, I suspect that this is what is eventually going to let Belgium down. But, hey, if they do win the tournament they will probably win it playing entertaining football so I won't moan too much about it! 
• Hazard and Witsel also looked good when they came on. It is worrying seeing some of Belgium's top players starting to fire as we really get into this tournament. 

Austria 0-2 Netherlands

• The Dutch played well in this game, although I suspect that most sides in the tournament will cause Holland more problems than Austria did here. Dumfries in particular continues to excel in this tournament- this time managing to win a penalty and get the second goal. The Dutch system really seems to suit him as De Roon is often covering that flank from a CM position allowing Dumfries to really bomb forward from RWB. He's a powerful player who is going to cause sides issues throughout this tournament. 
• I felt that De Jong and Depay were also excellent last night- I've found a lot of the snark about De Jong since he moved to Barca to be harsh, he's largely played well whenever I've seen them play and my issues with the current Barca side would likely lie elsewhere. 
• When talking about Austria's opening win I praised Franco Foda for moving Alaba to LCB allowing him to roam a bit and have more of an influence on the game than he was having in the centre of the back three. I cannot understand why Alaba started this game in the centre of defence as it meant that Austria's best player was playing far too deep to allow him to impact the game. You really want Alaba and Sabitzer to be linking up for the Austrians and Alaba's starting position doesn't really allow that to happen. 
• I do also think that Austria are not the right side to cause Holland problems. Their forwards aren't particularly pacy and that was how Ukraine caused Holland regular problems in their opener. By contrast, Austria's main attacking threat comes from crosses into their big strikers and, when they are set in their defensive shape, defenders like De Vrij are more than capable of dealing with that. 
• The Dutch pressing has, at times, been pretty impressive in their opening games and it might cause sides problems later in the tournament. 

[sjg11]

Hi all- busy weekend so I'll update my game reviews/add more flesh to my predictions tomorrow morning but quickly here's what I'm thinking for the final round of games: 

Italy beat Wales

Switzerland beat Turkey

Netherlands- North Macedonia

I think there are issues with this Dutch side- in particular I think a pacy attack can cause problems for them defensively. However, North Macedonia looked a step below the two sides who the Dutch have already beaten so I think the Dutch should win this one pretty comfortably. 

Prediction: Holland win

Austria-Ukraine

I think Ukraine are a better side than Austria... but I suspect that a draw suits both teams here so I can't see either side take any unnecessary risks. A dull game with both sides likely through to the last-16. 

Prediction: Draw

Belgium-Finland

Finland are well-organised and they are a decent side defensively... but the Belgians have so much attacking talent that I struggle to see how they fail to break through the Finnish defence. 

Prediction: Belgium win

Denmark-Russia

Russia are a hugely unimpressive side. Denmark have been phenomenally unlucky for a whole host of reasons in their two opening games. Denmark should win this one. 

Prediction: Denmark win

Croatia-Scotland

Croatia haven't been great so far but their performance in the second-half against Czech Republic was a huge improvement and a sign that this Croatia side still has talent. For me this game is about each side's respective midfields- Croatia simply have more talent in that area of the pitch and Scotland don't have the offence which is going to be able to effectively launch counter-attacks against the Croatian defence. I think Croatia eventually break Scotland down and take the win here. 

Prediction: Croatia win

Czech Republic-England

The Czechs have, as I suspected pre-tournament, proved they are a decent side with some strong performances in a tough group. However, on home soil, I think I back England to take the three points. 

Prediction: England win

Slovakia-Spain

Spain have been a disappointment so far- their offence lacks the cutting-edge required to break teams down. Slovakia are well-organised but I worry that, similar to the Sweden game, they will play for a draw here which means that I suspect that Spain will eventually break them down. 

Prediction: Spain win

Poland-Sweden

I am pretty confident that Sweden will be in the last-16. I would be less confident if I were Polish. Sweden are not an easy side to break down and, with Isak and Forsberg roaming, they pose a threat on the break against the Polish defence. That being said, Poland's back 3 might work well against Sweden's 4-4-2 and Lewandowski is capable of nicking a goal to send them through. I suspect a draw here but either side winning would make sense to me. 

Prediction: Draw

Germany- Hungary

Hungary produced an exceptional performance to hold the French to a draw in their second match. However, a trip to Munich should prove to be too much for them given the offensive talent the Germans possess. 

Prediction: Germany win

France-Portugal

Both sides are going to be concerned about losing here so I suspect that this is going to be a relatively boring low-scoring draw. A point probably suits both of them. 

Prediction: Draw

Edited June 21, 2021 by sjg11

[sjg11]

Friday/Saturday/Sunday Matches

Friday

• I won't quite be able to go into my usual level of detail for these games- I had a lot of fun things on this weekend so my attention was patchy but just a few thoughts. 
• Slovakia against Sweden was, in my opinion, a bit of a stinker. Slovakia played for a draw and Sweden are usually among a tournament's more defensive sides. Still, Sweden's second-half performance definitely earned them the win and, overall, they were the more enterprising of the two sides. 
• Alexander Isak is a highly talented young player who will go on to big things. This is known. He was excellent against Slovakia and was the only real standout player. 
• The Czech Republic are a decent side who more than held their own against a Croatia side with plenty of talent. Another goal for Patrik Schick ensuring that he is currently near the top of the goalscoring charts. 
• I always find Dalic to a bit of an enigma as a coach. Croatia often seem to start slowly in games and he often seems to lose the initial tactical battle in games. However, he has a good track record of being able to make decisive changes in games at key moments. It was Dalic's tweaking that played a big role in beating England in the 2018 semi-final and his half-time subs were crucial in allowing Croatia to snatch a point here- Petkovic allowed Croatia to have a more solid focal point than they had in the first-half and allowing Perisic to switch wings proved decisive as it allowed him to cut inside and fire home the equaliser. That being said, I can certainly understand why many Croatia fans would like Croatia to starting games like that rather than waiting until half-time! 
• England against Scotland- Scotland absolutely deserved a point as, despite all of England's attacking talent, England reverted to the boring yet functional style of play that is England's tradition. Because it's worked SO well for us for the past 60 years. 

Saturday

• Hungary did a phenomenal job in frustrating France. Given that their last game is in Munich, it's a real shame that they weren't able to hold on to make the group really interesting. 
• The French showed that they can be frustrated by a side playing a deeper defensive block. With Mbappe's pace I'm not sure that a high line is the best way to try to take on the French. 
• Germany were phenomenal against Portugal. Gosens and Kimmich, who had looked so weak against France, were excellent here and made life extremely difficult for Portugal on both flanks. 
• I was surprised at how open Portugal were defensively. I know they're trying to play more expansively in this tournament but their defence has long been one of their strong points and it was worrying to see it sliced through so comfortably here by the Germans. 
• Spain have issues taking their chances, for all the territory they create. It was also nice to see Lewandowski opening his account for the tournament. 

Sunday

• Italy are a very solid side. Defensively, given how high they play, it is incredible how solid they are defensively and the efficiency of their pressing. Given the limited time teams have at international level it is really impressive. 
• Wales won't be too disheartened by this- they did the job in the first two games and get the (in theory) more favourable draw by coming second in the group. 
• I always feel like the Swiss will find their way into the knockouts and their performances in the group show they have maintained their traditional role as a solid side without the capacity to shock the big fish in the tournament.
• Turkey need to sort out their midfield, they gave their defence no protection all tournament and left Turkey far too vulnerable in all their games. Really poor from a side whose reputation was built on their defence heading into the tournament.

[sjg11]

Austria 1-0 Ukraine

• I felt the change of shape really suited Austria- they looked far more solid than they did against the Dutch and it allowed them both to press Ukraine aggressively when they lost the ball and to get David Alaba into the game regularly when they were in possession. 
• Alaba was excellent and his delivery for Baumgartner's opener was superb. 
• I felt Sabitzer was busy throughout today- he was a bit unlucky that he didn't get a goal or an assist at any point. 
• Ukraine may yet sneak through (I think it's pretty touch-and-go for them- they need to keep an eye on Croatia-Scotland and Poland-Sweden I think) but if they do I can't see them going far. Yarmolenko and Malinovskyi are effective attacking players and, to be fair, this is probably the best Ukraine side I've seen since 2006 at a major tournament in terms of the style play. However, they are shaky defensively and they look really vulnerable the moment the opposition wins the ball back- Ukraine could not cope with the Austrian press here and every time Austria won the ball back they looked vulnerable. Their defence is fairly inexperienced and I think it's showing. If they do go through they need to find a way to tighten up at the back if they want to progress any further. 
• Yarmolenko was pretty anonymous today and Malinovskyi was taken off at half-time. Even when the Ukrainians did get past the Austrian press, they struggled to get their dangermen on the ball in dangerous areas. Both players were pretty ineffective in the final third. 
• For Austria, I think this is probably the end of the road. Italy should have too much quality in the last-16. That being said, if Foda is willing to be the first coach in the tournament to actually try to press the Italians and to win the ball back high up the pitch- which the Austrians did pretty effectively here- they could be the first side in the tournament who manages to seriously test the Italian defence. One fears that Foda will try to sit back and contain the Italians and I think that would probably be fatal to the Austrians. They aren't a side who are particularly dangerous on the break- their players are used to playing in the Bundesliga so a high pressing game with the aim to get Alaba on the ball in dangerous areas is probably their best hope for progressing any further. 

Netherlands 3-0 North Macedonia

• The Dutch were unlikely to ever face any serious problems against the North Macedonians and that largely proved to be true after the Dutch took the lead, although North Macedonia did start the game brightly and Trajkovski was only narrowly offside for their disallowed goal. 
• Holland are a side with a lot of pace and a good pressing game. It's difficult to know whether they are capable of going far into the tournament- many sides won't allow their wing-backs to push as high as they have been able to do in this group and many sides will have the pace to (presumably) begin aiming into the flank which Blind and Van Aanholt are usually meant to marshal. I feel like we need to see the Dutch against stronger opposition before we can really pass judgment on them. 
• A huge amount of respect to North Macedonia for how they have approached their first major tournament. A lot of sides in their position would have sat back and tried to contain their opponents and the North Macedonians have really tried to attack throughout. 8 goals conceded in 3 games is too many though- if they appear in another major tournament that's what they will need to work on. 

Denmark 4-1 Russia

• This was a special night and it is great to see Denmark get through after the horror of their opener. 
• To Cherchesov's credit, I actually think he approached tonight with the right game-plan. Well, frankly, he approached the game in the only way Russia could afford to. Sit deep and look to release Golovin and Miranchuk on the break to find space in between the Danish midfield and defence, hope you get the first goal and get the result you need to go through. The issue tonight says more about the squad's limitations than anything else. This generation of Russian talent has a, frankly, awful crop of defenders. Particularly against a side with an effective press like Denmark, once Russia went 1-0 down they had to play out from the back which inevitably allowed Denmark to win the ball high-up the pitch and then allowed them to attack Russia's vulnerable defensive unit. And Denmark were largely contained in the first-half- it took a moment of magic from Damsgaard to break through. The second-half was pitiful and shows the limitations of this group of players. Russia need to rebuild with a new generation of talent- in particular they need some more effective defensive players to come through the system. 
• Denmark were magnificent. They pressed like a pack of hungry lions and, when they won the ball back, they found the gaps in the Russian defence constantly. Although to be fair I think a blind man could have seen the gaps in the Russian defence tonight. 
• Andreas Christensen- what a pop!
• Denmark are probably favourites to take out the Welsh next. I think the Danish press will stifle Wales' attacking plan and I think the Danes are capable of finding a way through the Welsh defence. Plus I feel that momentum will be with Denmark at this point. That being said, Wales could take this if Bale and Ramsey play like they did against the Turks. I just can't see Hojbjerg and Delaney allowing the Welsh to find gaps in front of the Danish defence in the way that the Welsh were able to against Turkey. 

Belgium 2-0 Finland

• Nice to see a 96 year old Thomas Vermaelen popping up to score. 
• This largely looked like a game where Belgium had a lot of the ball and were just waiting for the right moment to break Finland down. 
• I think the second Belgian goal has killed Finland although, to be honest, even at 1-0 down they were behind the Ukrainians. If you're bottom after three groups have finished you're probably destined to exit the tournament and that is the position that Finland are now in. 

Permutations

Three sides have mathematically been eliminated- North Macedonia, Turkey and Russia

Eleven sides are through to the Second Round- Italy, Wales, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, England, Czech Republic, Sweden and France

There are five places left to be fought over between the following sides- Ukraine, Finland, Croatia, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Poland, Germany, Portugal and Hungary

Current Permutations- It looks likely that Finland won't go through as a third place side and we know the Swiss will go through as a third place side. I think it's pretty unlikely that Portugal will be pushed below Ukraine even if they lose (I think they'd need to be properly thrashed by France now to go out) and I can't see Germany losing to Hungary in Munich (and frankly even if they do Portugal would still need to be thrashed to finish below either Ukraine or Finland) so I reckon Group F will have a best third place slot. So I reckon we're either going to end up with:

A/C/D/F

A/D/E/F

A/C/E/F

I suspect it's going to come down to Ukraine or either Poland or Slovakia both aiming to just about sneak through (both Croatia and Scotland need to win so you have to suspect one of them will and they'll both go for it). I think a lot depends on whether Poland can penetrate the Yellow Wall of Sweden in their last match- if I were Ukrainian that's the game I would be focusing on. On balance, I think our most likely ending will be A/D/E/F as the groups to go through. Which probably leads to a tough game for either Belgium or Holland with the third-placed Group F sides (trying to game out where the third-placed sides would end up and that's what I think we end up with?)

[sjg11]

Czech Republic 0-1 England

• This was probably England's best performance of the group stage (although the defensive side of the performance against Croatia was exceptional) as we created a lot of chances and managed to maintain a solid defensive base- the Czech offence was effectively completely nullified here. 
• England still haven't figured out how to get the best out of their attacking options- too often our best moments seem to come from moments of individual inspiration from one of our forwards rather than the consistent output of a high-functioning offensive trio. This is part of the issue with Kane- if you put him in a functioning attack he's one of the best strikers in the world but he rarely, for example, beats five defenders and puts the ball in the net. 
• That being said- England's defensive base is very strong and we haven't conceded a goal yet. Scotland had a couple of chances against us but neither Croatia nor the Czech Republic really created anything against us. 
• I think this game showed some of the limitations of the Czech squad despite their recent improvement- they are defensively very solid and are capable of beating many sides in a physical battle but, if a side can compete with them physically, there is a lack of flair and creativity in their side which is probably what they need to work on over the next couple of years. 
• Both sides progress to the last 16 after a solid yet unspectacular start to their respective campaigns. Both sides have definitely improved on their pitiful showings in 2016. 

Croatia 3-1 Scotland

• When predicting a Croatian win here- I noted that I simply expected Croatia to have too much class for Scotland. That largely proved to be the case as Luka Modric took control of the game and the Scots couldn't find a way to control him and stop him creating/scoring chances. 
• Scotland shouldn't be too disheartened with their performance here- this was a tough group and they were by no means outclassed. They are still improving and I would expect to see this Scottish generation reach another major tournament where they may have a more favourable path through to the knockout stages. 
• Croatia could easily progress through to the quarters here but I struggle to see them getting much further unless they improve. Admittedly, Dalic is starting to find the right system I think so they could keep improving as the tournament progresses. 

[sjg11]

Slovakia 0-5 Spain

• Spain finally got it together and showed how dangerous they can be when they click as a team- some of their football here was of a really high-quality once they went in front. 
• However, I feel like the issue with this Spain side is their lack of a top-quality goalscorer in the final third. Morata isn't a bad player but he's not performing at his best in this tournament and he is missing far too many chances. This has already cost Spain by ensuring they finish second in the group behind Sweden (Spain should have taken the lead against Sweden given the volume of chances created in the first-half) and I think it is likely to cost them again in the knockout stages- particularly when they face a side who are actually capable of pressing them to disrupt their possession game which nobody in this group was able to do. 
• Slovakia were awful- after a good start against Poland they offered nothing in their remaining two games. They deserved to go out and, to be honest, as a side I feel like they are in need of a rebuilding phase. I suspect we may not see them back at a major tournament for a little while, their next generation of players are not particularly impressive. 
• Dubravka's own goal surely goes down as goalkeeping howler of a tournament which has had a few good ones. For a keeper who is generally very competent it was a really, really poor error bordering on amateurish. 

Poland 2-3 Sweden

• To be honest I still don't really understand what Paulo Sousa's plan was for Poland at this tournament. The hybrid 4/5ATB formation never really looked like working and only really seemed to leave Poland in a position where they had a reasonable amount of possession but limited penetration while they were very vulnerable to an effective opposition counter-attack. 
• At least this time none of the blame for Poland's fate can be laid at Lewandowski's feet- he got 3 goals in 3 games so he more than did his job, it's just the supporting cast really weren't up to the required standard. It's a shame, it would have been nice to see an in-form Lewandowski in the knockout stages of this tournament. 
• I also think people need to stop underestimating Sweden as a side. They are rock-solid defensively and they are dangerous on the break with players like Isak, Forsberg and Kulusevski (who should be fit now for the knockout stages). These Swedes are not a side to be taken lightly. 
• I also always find it remarkable how well Olsen plays for Sweden and how hapless he is at club level. It is a remarkable transformation. Although, in Sweden's shape, a goalkeeper only really needs to focus on being a good shot-stopper. It's like the inverse to why Pope probably wouldn't fit for England as a goalkeeper. 
• Poland yet again disappoint at a major tournament- it feels like they need to sort themselves out as a footballing nation. If they get it right they could form a very solid side but they consistently fail to put the pieces together at international level. 

Germany 2-2 Hungary

• Germany progressed through to the knockout stages but their defensive frailties were exposed by a solid Hungarian performance and Germany really could have been knocked out yesterday. 
• There has been a lot of debate about where Kimmich should play in the Germany side. Personally, I think RWB is the right place for him and I think that system worked really well for Germany against Portugal (which is the performance they should be trying to replicate). Germany have plenty of talented technical midfielders but Kimmich is, in my opinion, the only real player they have who is capable of doing both the defensive and offensive side of being a wing-back. Germany could play Kimmich in a central role but then they would likely be playing a winger at wing-back on the right which would leave them exposed defensively. 
• Hungary are a solid side who deserve a lot of credit for putting up a real fight in the group of death even without Szoboszlai. They could run Poland close for second place in World Cup qualifying. 
• Germany need to improve defensively if they are going to have a serious impact on this tournament. 

France 2-2 Portugal

• Another highly (and in this case a surprisingly) entertaining game. Portugal had the better of the first-half and France had the better of the second-half as two relatively evenly-matched sides competed. 
• Both sides are very similar in terms of style in a defensive 4-3-3 but Portugal, in particular, have been more offensive in general in this tournament. The French, last night aside, generally seem to be maintaining their more cautious style of play. It will be interesting to see which side progresses further in the knockout stages. 
• Ronaldo is now the joint-top international goalscorer of all time, he should overtake the longstanding Ali Daei record at some point in the near future. Another record for a truly exceptional footballer. 
• France haven't really moved into top gear yet but I expect to see them starting to get into gear before too long. 

[sjg11]

Last 16 Predictions

Wales vs Denmark- Amsterdam

Wales have been impressive so far- they have been defensively very solid for most of the tournament and Bale and Ramsey have reverted back to their 2016 form when needed to pose a threat at the other end. Dan James adds a extra dimension to their attack which they didn't have 5 years ago and Kieffer Moore is an effective nuisance up front. Danny Ward has also had an excellent tournament in goal. They are capable of winning this game, Denmark are vulnerable to an effective counter-attack and Wales' counter-attacking play is generally pretty good. 

That being said, I think I would go for a Denmark win here. They will have more of the ball, more of the territory and more of the chances. The issue is whether one of their forward players can take the right chance when it falls to them. I suspect they will find a way through the Welsh defence eventually, particularly given the momentum they should have after an excellent performance against Russia. 

Prediction: Denmark win

Italy vs Austria- London

Italy are a better side and should have too much quality for the Austrians, who have a solid tournament but will do well to progress any further. 

That being said, I will sound one note of caution for the Italians here. Italy have not yet faced a side who are capable of pressing them. For all of their flaws, as they proved against Ukraine, the Austrians are capable of operating an effective press. I think the extent to which this game will test Italy will depend on how Foda approaches it. Austria have very little pace in their side so sitting back will just invite pressure and Austria will be overwhelmed in the same way that Italy's group-stage opponents were. If Austria actually try to press against the Italians and try to test their defence then it could be a more interesting game and a surprisingly tricky one for Italy. 

Prediction: Italy win

Holland vs Czech Republic- Budapest

This should be another win for the Dutch and I expect the technical ability of De Jong and Depay to make the difference here. I doubt the Czech Republic are going to be bullied by the Dutch in the way that some of their group-stage opponents were but I also can't see the Czechs bullying Holland either which tends to be when the Czechs do well. Overall I think a Dutch moment of quality to win the game is more likely to be the difference than a Czech set-piece although if I were De Boer I would spend a reasonable amount of time working on set-pieces to prepare for this one. 

Prediction: Holland win

Belgium vs Portugal- Seville

This should be a really entertaining game between two high-quality sides. Both sides have been scoring a lot of goals in this tournament (both sides are averaging more than two goals a game currently) and I expect both sides' offences to continue clicking here. 

Thus, I think the difference here will likely be which side can effectively stop the opposition attack. I think I rate the Portuguese defence more than I rate the Belgian defence. Belgium's defensive players look very vulnerable (Denmark exploited this in the group stage) and I struggle to see how they will effectively stop a talented Portuguese attack from getting into their stride. Portugal are probably more capable of limiting opportunities for Belgium's offensive players. 

Prediction: Portugal win

Croatia vs Spain- Copenhagen

This is going to be a tricky one to call. Both sides, after a shaky start, have grown into the tournament and have started to show more quality as the tournament has progressed. This could also be the first game where a side seriously challenges Spain for possession of the ball rather than simply trying to contain the Spanish attack after having allowed Spain to dominate the midfield. 

I think overall though I narrowly give the win to Spain. I think Croatia are relying too much on an ageing Modric and I think Spain are capable of pressing Modric in a way to limit his influence on the match. If Modric is nullified then things start to look more straightforward for Spain- I suspect they will find a way through a slightly shaky Croatian defence eventually. 

Prediction: Spain win (possibly after extra-time)

France vs Switzerland- Bucharest

Switzerland did what Switzerland do in the group stages and they progressed to the second round. Switzerland will now do what Switzerland do in the second round and will be knocked out. Rinse and repeat. Ad infinitum. 

Prediction: France win

England vs Germany- London

This may come back to bite me later... but I'm actually pretty optimistic about this one from an English perspective. I think we have enough pace in the side, and I think we're defensively strong enough, that we're well-suited to exploiting the vulnerabilities in Germany's high-line while being capable of containing the German offence at the other end of the pitch. We should also be capable of effectively competing with the German midfield to ensure we have plenty of spells of possession and we're not just camped on the edge of our own 18-yard line for 90 minutes. 

Germany's route to success here will involve dominating the midfield battle to such an extent that England has no outlet. I suspect we're not going to fall into that trap which should make life very difficult for Germany. Plus England have home advantage. Which helps. 

Prediction: England win

Sweden vs Ukraine- Glasgow

Ukraine's defence is dodgy while Sweden's is very strong. Sweden have more than enough in their attacking players (Isak, Forsberg and presumably Kulusevski are all dangerous players) to exploit a shaky Ukrainian backline. The Swedes should progress. 

Prediction: Sweden win

[sjg11]

Wales 0-4 Denmark

• This was a game too far for Wales- the issue any side who rely on a couple of big players to compete at a higher level faces is figuring out what to do when those big players are nullified. Once Denmark got to grips with Ramsey's movements after the game's early stages, Wales lacked an alternative weapon to launch at the Danish defence. Wales' fate was probably sealed from that moment. 
• Denmark were excellent and should be used as a template for mid-sized European nations to follow in the future. Their pressing game as a side is really well-drilled and it is evidence that a side can successfully develop a well co-ordinated press at international level. Hopefully this will be used by more sides in the future as it makes for a lot of entertaining football. 
• Simon Kjaer and Andreas Christensen were excellent yesterday and the defensive solidity they offer really provides the base for this Danish side offensively, particularly with two very solid CMs in Thomas Delaney and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg providing an effective shield in front of them. 
• Maehle has been one of the breakout stars of the tournament for me so far- he looks so effective when he gets forward that it really adds a lot to the Danish attack. 
• Wales can still look back on a good tournament- their aim before the tournament began would have been to get out of the group and they did that pretty comfortably and their victory over Turkey in Baku can be added to the list of great Welsh performances at recent European Championships. This was a lesson though from a better side. 
• Denmark should fancy themselves in a quarter-final against either the Netherlands or the Czech Republic- there is definitely still life in this Denmark side. 

Italy 2-1 Austria (AET)

• When making for my predictions for this game I said this could be a closer game than people think it might be and that Austria will provide a different test for the Italians compared to any of Italy's group stage opponents. I think that largely proved to be the case as Italy looked uncomfortable whenever the Austrians pressed them.
• I think the key here was Mancini's coaching. His subs changed the game- he sensed that Austria were growing into the game and made subs to ensure that Italy retook control of the game for the last 15/20 minutes of extra-time and for the extra-time period itself. Foda didn't sense momentum swinging back towards the Italians until Chiesa had scored. By then it was too late. 
• Foda deserves credit, in general, for the Austrian performance at this tournament. He moved Alaba against Macedonia which won them the game and his change of shape allowed Austria to effectively press both Ukraine and Italy. But he waited too long to make subs here- his first tactical change was only made after Chiesa had scored. Now that managers have 5 subs it is important that they use them decisively- sitting on them just allows your opponents to bring fresh legs on at a decisive stage of the game. 
• If a side can press Italy, it is definitely possible for a side to get some joy against the Italian defence. It will be interesting to see how that plot thread progresses when Italy face Portugal or Belgium in the next round. Italy still look good but they will need to raise their game if they want to progress any further. 
• Austria had a very solid tournament and, combined with their promotion to the Nations League A and with the continued conveyer belt of Austrian talent that comes through a relatively strong Bundesliga at the moment, things look pretty good for Austrian football in the near future. 

[sjg11]

Netherlands 0-2 Czech Republic

• Holland's vulnerabilities were exposed by a strong Czech performance here. I said pre-game that the Dutch weren't going to able to bully the Czechs as they had Ukraine and North Macedonia and that they would be reliant on a moment of technical magic to win this. If such a moment was not produced then a Czech set-piece could easily undo the Dutch defence and lead to a genuine upset. 
• The turning point in this game was obviously De Ligt's red card (as clear a red card as you'll ever see). A few moments before that, Malen almost produced the moment of magic which would have unlocked the Czech defence. On such moments do major tournaments turn. 
• Once they went down to 10 men, De Boer showed his limitations as a manager by persisting in a back 5 which is completely pointless when you are down to 10 men and simply invites pressure from the opposition. Particularly for a side like the Czech Republic it simply allowed them to put set-pieces into the Dutch area until eventually they broke through. 
• Patrik Schick, who has been fairly average at club level for a number of seasons, is having a very good tournament- the second goal here was another nice finish from him. 
• Surely this was the end for De Boer's Holland- it will be interesting to see where the Dutch go from here. 
• I struggle to see the Czechs getting past Denmark in the next round. I don't really see the Danes being vulnerable to the Czechs' physicality and the Danes have enough energy and talent to eventually find a way through against a disciplined Czech Republic team. 

Belgium 1-0 Portugal

• This was far from the thriller that many people were anticipating pre-game. Such is life- it's always the games you're looking forward to the most that end up letting you down! 
• Portugal were a little bit unfortunate not to force extra-time here- they had three or four good chances but didn't take any of them. Belgium didn't really create a clear opening all match but took the win through a stunning Thorgan Hazard strike. 
• Belgium will be hit by injuries to Hazard and De Bruyne but, even so, I think Lukaku could really cause problems for the Italian defence. I have a suspicion that Belgium are well-suited to taking on Italy. 
• I expected Belgium's defence to have a real issue with the Portuguese attack but Portugal never worked themselves into positions where they could counter-attack effectively in the first-half which was surely the way to attack a slow, ageing Belgian defence. Instead Portugal's build-up play was too slow allowing the Belgian defence to set itself which suited Alderweireld, Vermaelen and Vertonghen. Portugal needed to get the ball to their front players more quickly if they wanted to cause Belgium consistent problems in the first-half. 
• I felt like Jota had a poor game and missed two very good openings to score for Portugal, one in each half. 
• I'm still trying to decide whether Hazard's goal was a great strike or poor goalkeeping. I'm somewhere in between the two positions at the moment. 
• This is the first time that Portugal have reached the finals of the Euros but have failed to reach the quarter-finals. A shame as this was a talented Portugal side but they never really gelled cohesively on the field. 

[sjg11]

Croatia 3-5 Spain (AET)

• Wow... to think this wasn't even the game of the day when in most cases it would have been a shoe-in for game of the tournament. Sensational game where both sides really went for the win in a way that often doesn't happen in knock-out games. To be fair, I think the extra subs have helped with that. It allows a losing side to do more to chase a game that is getting away from them hence increasing the likelihood of a comeback or something dramatic happening. Subs are so important in this tournament and it's where I worry England are going to fall down. Southgate's in-game management has long been a weak point and it is extra important here.
• The first-half was a fairly standard first-half for the Spanish. They dominated possession without having sufficient penetration. They conceded a silly goal to give their opponents the lead before eventually finding a way through to equalise, which one would expect given the amount of possession the Spanish were enjoying. The best thing the Spanish did in the first-half was to largely limit Modric's role in the game- their press worked to render Croatia's best player completely anonymous for the first-half. Spain's full-backs were dangerous throughout the first-half- Croatia never really got to grips with the width of the Spanish attack throughout the match. 
• The Croatian goal was a spectacular error by Unai Simon. Really, really poor goalkeeping at this level. 
• The Croatians then clearly came out with the intention to play a higher line and to press the Spanish in the second-half- presumably with the intention of then allowing them to find Modric higher up the pitch where he could really affect the game. I think this was the right call from Dalic, if the game had continued as it was going in the first-half I think Spain would have broken through Croatia eventually and it would have been difficult to bounce back from that. The issue with it is that it left the Croatian full-backs exposed which was a weakness Spain were able to exploit throughout the second-half and extra-time. 
• In particular, I felt it was an error to leave Brekalo at RB after Croatia had pulled it back to 3-3. At that point Croatia had equalised- it was probably the better option to take off an attacker and to move Brekalo further forward to bring a RB onto the pitch (although by all means let me know if Juranovic was the only fit RB in the squad? I can't see anything suggesting Vrsaljko was unavailable for this one) to try to rebalance the side after you had unbalanced it to go hell for leather at 3-1 down. 
• Mislav Orsic is a very talented player and is clearly the next player to progress from the Croatian talent factory. 

France 3-3 Switzerland (4-5 Switzerland on penalties)

• Deschamps has largely been a success since he was appointed to manage France. But he absolutely got his tactics wrong. He made two big misjudgments that cost France here- with both his opening formation and by failing to change shape when France went 3-1 up. 
• Firstly, I have no idea why you would experiment with 3ATB having, in essence, never used it before in the knockout stage of a major tournament. Particularly since a 3ATB clearly doesn't suit a France side who are famous for having defensive full-backs and who rely on being able to bully sides into the midfield before producing a moment or two of pure individual genius in the final third. And particularly when that formation involves moving Adrien Rabiot to LWB. I have no idea what Deschamps was thinking. Surely the better option, given France's normal style of play would have been to simply move a CB across to LB and maybe give Pavard more license to roam forward from RB to provide width. Maybe then drop one of Benzema or Mbappe and bring Coman in to provide width on the left-flank offensively. But you keep the very solid French midfield in place which has generally been one of their strong points during this period of success. Moreover, Kante can play in a midfield two. Pogba is not the type of player who thrives in a midfield two, for all of his offensive talent (which he demonstrated a few times last night) he lacks the defensive discipline to play that role effectively.
• Switzerland absolutely did the right thing in sensing blood when they saw how the French had lined up. They were brave enough to push their wing-backs high up the pitch and to try to attack the French down the flanks. Only playing a midfield two also allowed Xhaka time and space which, given this was the good Xhaka playing today rather than his evil twin, allowed him to really pull strings for Switzerland. 
• Deschamps then gambled by bringing Coman on for Lenglet and, in essence, switching to a 4-2-4 with Rabiot, a midfielder, at LB. The gamble nearly backfired spectacularly for France with the Swiss counter-attack that led to the penalty but, to be fair, the French needed to gamble and it was a sensible call. Coman provided width, stretching the Swiss defence and providing the room for the front three to do their magic. Hence why France turned the game around and went 3-1 up. 
• Here is where Deschamps made his second fatal blunder. At 3-1 up he stuck with a 4-2-4 with Rabiot at LB. France are, in essence, the main architects of the defensive 4-3-3 which dominated international football for the second half of the last decade. They have used the system successfully for years. So I have no idea why they didn't revert back to it here. Surely the change in formation would have cut off the Swiss attempts to regain more possession by outnumbering them in the midfield thus allowing the French to comfortably see the game out to a fairly tame conclusion. I have no idea why Deschamps didn't take off one of his front three to bring an extra midfielder on (or an extra CB either to play LB or so he could move Kimpembe there while switching Rabiot to CM). And this error proved crucial- the French were a man light in the midfield which created the space where Xhaka played Gavranovic in for the equaliser. And the oddest thing of all is he brought Sissoko on (a player capable of playing CM in a 4-3-3)... who played on the right-flank all game in a 4-2-4? Really, really strange decisions in hindsight. 
• A huge amount of credit to Switzerland. Xhaka, Zuber, Seferovic, Gavranovic and Embolo really stood out but that was one of the greatest games in Euros/tournament history. It's so easy as the underdog in a match to just sit deep and eventually be overcome but a few sides in this tournament are showing the benefits of playing a little bit higher up the pitch against the big boys and trying to really test them. Great to see. 

[GunmaN1905]

4 minutes ago, sjg11 said:

In particular, I felt it was an error to leave Brekalo at RB after Croatia had pulled it back to 3-3. At that point Croatia had equalised- it was probably the better option to take off an attacker and to move Brekalo further forward to bring a RB onto the pitch (although by all means let me know if Juranovic was the only fit RB in the squad? I can't see anything suggesting Vrsaljko was unavailable for this one) to try to rebalance the side after you had unbalanced it to go hell for leather at 3-1 down.

He was not fully fit, but another sub had to be made.

As I said before ET started, Croatia was really unbalanced. 3-4-1-2 with two wingers on the flank.
Modrić was obviously done and he couldn't be one of the two midfielders in such setup.
Should've subbed on Badelj for some midfield balance if Vrsaljko wasn't good to go.

Quote

Mislav Orsic is a very talented player and is clearly the next player to progress from the Croatian talent factory. 

He's a great player, but turning 29 this year.
Absolutely had to start ahead of Rebić who hasn't shown anything for NT ever since that goal against Argentina in 2018.

[sjg11]

57 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

He was not fully fit, but another sub had to be made.

As I said before ET started, Croatia was really unbalanced. 3-4-1-2 with two wingers on the flank.
Modrić was obviously done and he couldn't be one of the two midfielders in such setup.
Should've subbed on Badelj for some midfield balance if Vrsaljko wasn't good to go.

He's a great player, but turning 29 this year.
Absolutely had to start ahead of Rebić who hasn't shown anything for NT ever since that goal against Argentina in 2018.

Yeah if Vrsaljko was that unfit then Badelj would have been the right move. I think Orsic over Rebic would have been sensible from the start, although in general I think Rebic was your most dangerous player when he was on the pitch, particularly in the first-half. 

[sjg11]

England 2-0 Germany

• Firstly, a huge amount of credit goes to Southgate for this victory. He absolutely made the right call, in this case, in switching to 3ATB to counter Kimmich and Gosens. 3ATB is not always the right system but it was the right way to approach this game and it meant that Germany's wide players never really got into the game. Any threat from Germany came down the centre of the pitch and their standard approach to winning a game in this tournament was pretty much cut off at source here. My one issue with the set-up is how slow the build-up play was. I feel there was an opportunity if we could have worked the ball to Sterling and Saka more efficiently early in the match to really test the German defence. But the slower approach worked in the end so who am I to judge and complain? 
• Germany had their moments- I would expect nothing less from a side with their quality- but they never really found any fluency in the game after the first 10 minutes or so. This was largely because Kimmich and Gosens were nullified but they never got going and any fluency to be found at Wembley was from England not from Germany. 
• Walker was excellent today- he was, in my opinion, the main reason why Muller missed that chance. Muller took that chance earlier than he would have wanted to because he knew that Walker would catch up to him if he took an extra touch. Hence Muller took the shot from the edge of the box and screwed the effort just wide. 
• Sterling, Saka and Grealish were all very good during their respective periods on the pitch. A key turning point in the match was when Grealish and Gnabry came on. Gnabry offered less of a threat than Werner had while Grealish came on and provided a couple of moments of quality in the final third to unlock the deadlock and ensure that England progressed to the quarter-finals. 
• England need to do more to get Kane into the game. He should stay in the starting line-up- if nothing else he remains an excellent goalscorer. But I can't help but think that if we played him into the right positions he could offer an extra dimension to this side that it's currently lacking. It's good that we're winning games without our world-class ST playing at his best... but if we could get him to play at his best we would become a truly fearsome side. 
• Both sides have plenty to be optimistic about in the future. England have a very good chance of further progress at this tournament while Germany have an exciting crop of players to develop under a top-class manager in Hansi Flick. Germany on home soil in 2024 could be a truly fearsome prospect indeed. 

Sweden 1-2 Ukraine (AET)

• Once again, I feel compelled to credit a manager for his side's success in the knockout stages of this tournament. Shevchenko's switch to a back three was, in my opinion, the main reason why Ukraine won this game and it allowed them to largely limit the influence that Isak and Kulusevski were able to have on the game. Forsberg drifting inside remained a danger but the front two were largely nullified and that made the game significantly tougher for Sweden. 
• I actually really enjoyed the first 60/65 minutes of this match- I felt it was an intriguing tactical battle and both sides were creating a decent amount of chances. Then the game developed into a battle until Danielson's red card (which was a clear red card by the way- his tackle on Besedin was horrible) allowed Ukraine to press again and eventually break Sweden down. 
• Zinchenko was probably man of the match for me- his finish for the first goal and his cross for the second goal were both excellent. He looked really comfortable playing at LWB and was a threat down the left flank all game for the Ukrainians. 
• For Sweden, this was a big missed opportunity. In future tournaments, however effective their 4-4-2 is as a Plan A, I feel they need to be able to deviate from it when required. To succeed in a modern tournament you need to be able to be tactically flexible as a number of sides have demonstrated here. Ukraine won the tactical battle here and Sweden didn't change shape to try to offer a different threat to the Ukrainians. I feel like this was an error from them. 

[sjg11]

Quarter-Final Predictions

Spain vs Switzerland- Saint Petersburg

Spain are in a good position now in this tournament as they have started to settle into their stride a bit. I think they'll win here pretty comfortably. Switzerland's back three is not the right way to approach a game against the Spanish- it will just allow Morata to drop deep to provide the extra number in midfield allowing the Spanish to completely dominate possession while Spain's wingers push on to pin Switzerland's wing-backs back. To have any chance, I feel like the Swiss need to change shape here. Plus the Spanish have a very effective press and, in general, pressing Xhaka tends to lead to a poor Xhaka performance. I think Spain are well-suited to facing the Swiss. 

Prediction: Spain win

Italy vs Belgium- Munich

Definitely the tie of the round. Belgium will be without De Bruyne and Hazard,,, but their replacements are Carrasco and Mertens so their offence is still very dangerous. I think Belgium's shape is well-suited to playing Italy- I can see them pushing Meunier and Thorgan Hazard into dangerous areas and I can see Lukaku causing havoc for the Italian backline with his runs into the channel. Italy have been good so far but if Belgium engage their counter-attacking mode I think they're still more than dangerous enough on the break to end the Italian journey. 

Prediction: Belgium win

Denmark vs Czech Republic- Baku

What an opportunity for these two sides to reach a semi-final! The Czech Republic will be solid opponents... but I think the Danes are well-equipped to make sure the Czechs don't bully them and the Danes don't look like the type of side to be undone by a Czech set-piece. Plus Denmark's momentum and excellent pressing game.... I think the Danes take this pretty comfortably. 

Prediction: Denmark win

England vs Ukraine- Rome

I'll be honest, if we get knocked out by Ukraine here I'll be furious. I think we should simply revert back to 4-3-3 here with the aim of pressing Ukraine to ensure that they can't get their possession game going. Do that and this should be a relatively comfortable England win. 

Prediction: England win

[sjg11]

Spain 1-1 Switzerland (3-1 on pens)

• This felt a little bit harsh on Switzerland. The game was pretty even until Freuler's red card. As for Freuler's red card- I don't think it was a wrong decision from the ref even if I could see how a ref would give a yellow card for it instead of a red. One of those which, either way, is a silly challenge to make when you're level at 1-1 in a huge game for your country's national football team. 
• That being said, the quality of the Swiss penalties was genuinely atrocious. Really awful with the exception of Gavranovic. 
• Spain struggled when Switzerland switched to a back four and actually started trying to press them a little bit. In particular, Spain really just seemed to be trying to contain Switzerland when they were 1-0 up which I think was an error. It allowed the Swiss to come into the game, to start having the ball in Spanish territory and to start winning set-pieces in dangerous areas. The Swiss definitely deserved their equaliser when it came. 
• In extra-time, Spain's inability to finish also came to the fore. Sommer was excellent but too many shots were straight at him or were hit without any real conviction. 
• For all of Spain's flaws, their midfield is tasty. Busquets has been excellent since coming into the side and Pedri has been really, really good all tournament. 
• From a Spanish perspective, I think Italy will eliminate them on current form. I have seen nothing from Spain in this tournament to suggest that they are able to play through the Italian press successfully and that should give Mancini's side the edge. Spain will likely have to play more vertically than they are used to if they're going to get a result against the Italians. 

Italy 2-1 Belgium

• Another highly enjoyable match in a tournament that has been full of them so far. 
• Italy were excellent and successfully exploited the weakness in the Belgian defence throughout the match. Italy forced Belgium to give the ball away in dangerous areas enough to outweigh the amount that Belgium were able to play out of the Italian press to get Lukaku and De Bruyne into dangerous positions. When Belgium got forward they often looked dangerous but the Italians created too much at the other end for the Belgian counter-attacks to decisively swing the game in their favour. 
• Insigne's goal was beautiful and caps an excellent tournament for the Napoli man. 
• Spinazzola's injury is a huge blow for Italy moving forward and it may re-open LB as a weak point in the Italy side for the semi-finals and the final. Given that Spain's wingers tend to be pretty dangerous, this is definitely an area to watch for the semi-final. 
• The Belgian penalty was soft. I think responsibility for this one falls on the ref not on VAR- it was within the referee's discretion to give the penalty (there was a slight push on Doku), it just shouldn't have been given as a pen in the first place. 
• For Belgium, this feels like the end for their Golden Generation. They have enough talent coming through that they should remain a good side for a while yet (and Portugal and Holland are good examples of how to maintain the momentum from a Golden Generation to become an established force in European football) so it will be interesting to see how they progress in future tournaments. 
• Italy march on to a semi-final against Spain. On current form, I would be optimistic if I were Italian. 

[sjg11]

Denmark 2-1 Czech Republic

• An excellent first-half performance saw Denmark march on to the semi-finals. The Czech Republic had a brief spell on top in the second-half before Hjulmand switched formation to ensure that Denmark's control of the midfield remained intact. 
• The Czechs will be disappointed at the manner of the first goal they conceded. To me, it looks like Boril is at fault- Kalas is pointing at Delaney and, to me, it looks like he's telling Boril to mark him because Kalas is going to have to track the run of Vestergaard. Boril then gets sucked into Vestergaard's run leaving Delaney completely open. Difficult to know with any certainty who is at fault though without knowing what the usual Czech gameplan would have been for defending a set-piece. 
• Hojbjerg, Delaney and Maehle were, once again, stand-out players for the Danes yesterday. If Denmark are to pull off an upset against England, one suspects that Hojbjerg and Delaney's ability to control the midfield will be where the danger lies. 
• Patrik Schick had a very good tournament and may yet win at least a joint Golden Boot depending on what happens in the remaining three matches. He's a talented kid who just hasn't found his feet consistently at club level yet. One feels like the right club at the right time could have a real player on their hands with Schick. And if not then he'll always have this tournament to savour. 
• It was ridiculous that this game was hosted in Baku. There have been positives to the hosting in this tournament... but Baku is a definite negative. It's difficult for fans to get to (even outside of a pandemic) and there is no football atmosphere in the city. This was arguably the biggest game of football ever played in Baku and the stadium was almost empty. The locals only seemed interested in Turkey- other games were really poorly attended. And then you also have to factor in the sheer distance between Baku and the other host cities- both sides looked really tired in the last 20 minutes. 
• The Czech Republic confirmed my pre-tournament suspicion that they have improved as a side in the past year or so. They can look forward to making a strong bid to qualify for Qatar now, particularly if some of their younger players keep improving. 
• Denmark will need to shake off any Baku-related tiredness before they trek back to London to face England on Wednesday. Once again, Baku was an awful choice for a host city. Can UEFA please stop trying to make Baku happen. 

England 4-0 Ukraine

• Southgate switched back to a back 4 for this game- clearly intending to press the Ukrainians. It worked pretty well. Ukraine's weak engine room almost cost them against Austria before a tactical switch allowed them to mitigate for it against Sweden. Given that we weren't a rigid 4-4-2 there wasn't really anything Shevchenko could do to mitigate for Ukraine's dodgy defence. Hence you end up with one of the most one-sided quarter-finals I have ever seen at a major tournament. 
• I was talking to a mate pre-game who was trying to convince me that we should drop Kane. I said this was a nonsense suggestion- we just need to get the ball to him more. Plus if he gets into a goalscoring position he'll still put the ball in the net. I enjoy being proven right about things. 
• It was nice to see out strength at set-pieces asserting itself last night. Although I note that Ukraine were not well-built to avoid being bullied by us physically- the Dutch were also able to bully Ukraine in Amsterdam in their tournament opener. Denmark will be a tougher nut to crack. 
• Ukraine really didn't offer much here- I feel like they were a weak quarter-finalist but I also feel that England were a really bad match-up for them. Our strengths meant we were very good at exploiting their weaknesses and they didn't really have anything to frighten us at the other end. England hate sides that sit deep against us. Ukraine aren't really built for that. Sweden would have been a far more challenging opponent as they are more capable of frustrating England. 
• England can march on with optimism. Ukraine can focus on trying to get to Qatar which they are more capable of doing than tonight's result would suggest, 

[sjg11]

Semi-Final Predictions

Italy vs Spain

I think Italy are very well-built to beat Spain. They can largely match the Spanish midfield while having a stronger attack and a stronger defence. Unless Spain's midfield have the game of their lives (or unless Morata really brings his shooting boots) I struggle to see how Spain win this. Italy, on paper, seem like a very good anti-Spain at the moment. 

Prediction: Italy win

England vs Denmark

England are growing into this tournament and England's record at Wembley is pretty strong. Denmark are a very good side (despite what some would have you believe, this Denmark side are plenty good enough to have reached the semi-finals of a major tournament- they are not the hopeless underdogs some would have you believe they are) and are (as they proved in the autumn) very capable of pulling out a result here and progressing to the final. I think the real decisive factor here though will be Denmark's trip to Baku and back. Denmark's main strength is an effective, high-energy press. Tiredness could be fatal to their chances and I suspect they will at least be a little bit drained after their quarter-final. Both sides looked pretty tired at the end of that one. Plus I think England are able to put someone pacy up against Vestergaard and that could be a key battle here. 

Prediction: England win