[Suggestion] New PA System

[Enzu225]

In my opinion the current PA system is unrealistic.

Let me give you an example:

In FM, if you find a decent 15 year old central defender from Solomon Islands with high determination and professionalism, who has 11+ marking and 11+ concentration. Then sign him with Real Madrid and play him in every single youth fixture for three years. His PA will not improve.

In reality, player potential is unknown. Scouts can only find out the player current ability and compare him with the players they know. Many players will never reach their potential due to playing at a low level club.

So, this is what I propose:

There will be two different PA systems.

Current PA, also known as talent. This is the PA the you can edit in the editor.

Team PA, also known as the potential ability the player can achieve at the club. This value can not be edited.

Only if the Current PA is lower than the Team PA, will it be used.

5 star team will have 180 PA.

This means that a player with 80 PA can improve to 130 PA (calculation: (80+180)/2 = 130) with the right guidance.

If the player CA (Current Ability) increases, so will the PA. If his CA is 40 and improves to 60, then his maximum PA will be 140.

4,5 star team will have 160 PA.

4 star team will have 140 PA.

3,5 star team will have 120 PA.

3 star team will have 100 PA.

2,5 star team will have 80 PA.

2 star team will have 60 PA.

1,5 star team will have 40 PA.

1 star team will have 20 PA.

[kidthekid]

I do agree that the PA should be more dynamic but I also feel like it's hard to replicate in real life. Your solution is not a bad idea but I also feel like it doesn't explain the Jamie Vardy, Ashley Williams, Clucas or Leon Britton types, basically, players who developed at an age where in FM development would have slowed down and also developed at less than 4 star clubs.

[CFuller]

On 15/09/2018 at 17:16, Enzu225 said:

In FM, if you find a decent 15 year old central defender from Solomon Islands with high determination and professionalism, who has 11+ marking and 11+ concentration. Then sign him with Real Madrid and play him in every single youth fixture for three years. His PA will not improve.

 In reality, player potential is unknown. Scouts can only find out the player current ability and compare him with the players they know. Many players will never reach their potential due to playing at a low level club.

That is not how potential works. Just because a youngster is playing for a high-level club doesn't mean that their PA should necessarily be high. I was an absolutely hopeless footballer at school, so not even in my wildest dreams would signing for Arsenal and training with them for two years have made me a potential Premier League player.

Look at the Arsenal Under-18s squad from 2012/2013. Look at how few have 'made the grade' and how many have ended up at semi-professional if not amateur clubs.

There is no need for and no point in 'Team PA' when you take into account the more substantial impact that training facilities and coaches have on player development. That would explain why lowly clubs like Crewe Alexandra with a strong focus on youth development have generally produced better talents more consistently than, say, AFC Bournemouth or Huddersfield Town.

On 15/09/2018 at 17:44, kidthekid said:

I do agree that the PA should be more dynamic but I also feel like it's hard to replicate in real life. Your solution is not a bad idea but I also feel like it doesn't explain the Jamie Vardy, Ashley Williams, Clucas or Leon Britton types, basically, players who developed at an age where in FM development would have slowed down and also developed at less than 4 star clubs.

You've made a decent point there. Asking FM to predict another Vardy or Kanté is like asking SI to predict the lottery numbers. Nobody was giving Vardy 150 PA or whatever when he was playing for Stocksbridge Park Steels, because who were we to know that he would turn out how he did?

These late-bloomers can and do exist in FM, though they're a rare breed. In my FM13 save, there was a striker who came through the youth system at Crawley Town in the Conference and was nothing special. However, he steadily worked his way through the lower leagues before making his Premier League debut for Reading aged 28, if I remember correctly. His best season came four years later, aged 32, when he scored 26 PL goals.

[Enzu225]

42 minutes ago, CFuller said:

That is not how potential works. Just because a youngster is playing for a high-level club doesn't mean that their PA should necessarily be high. I was an absolutely hopeless footballer at school, so not even in my wildest dreams would signing for Arsenal and training with them for two years have made me a potential Premier League player. 

Only training with the club will never make you a potential Premier League player. You also need to be playing regularly and producing results on the football ground.

 

44 minutes ago, CFuller said:

There is no need for and no point in 'Team PA' when you take into account the more substantial impact that training facilities and coaches have on player development. That would explain why lowly clubs like Crewe Alexandra with a strong focus on youth development have generally produced better talents more consistently than, say, AFC Bournemouth or Huddersfield Town. 

Team PA would be determined by the clubs training facilities and level of coaches at the club, not by the reputation of the teams.

[CFuller]

9 minutes ago, Enzu225 said:

Only training with the club will never make you a potential Premier League player. You also need to be playing regularly and producing results on the football ground.

My point still stands. Signing some random 15-year-old from the Solomon Islands and giving him every opportunity to succeed should not necessarily mean that he will become any good. If he never had the potential to be a top-division player, he almost certainly never will have the potential. Take Dale Jennings at Bayern Munich, for example.

 

[Enzu225]

7 minutes ago, CFuller said:

My point still stands. Signing some random 15-year-old from the Solomon Islands and giving him every opportunity to succeed should not necessarily mean that he will become any good. If he never had the potential to be a top-division player, he almost certainly never will have the potential. Take Dale Jennings at Bayern Munich, for example.

If his CA is around 5-15 and his PA is max 60-80 (which is very high for Solomon Islands), then he will never become a word class player even with the new PA system.

[CFuller]

7 minutes ago, Enzu225 said:

If his CA is around 5-15 and his PA is max 60-80 (which is very high for Solomon Islands), then he will never become a word class player even with the new PA system.

So what are you suggesting? That a player can have 100 PA at Manchester United but only 40 PA at Western United? That's probably an exaggeration, but whatever.

Training facilities and coaching should affect a player's CA, not their PA, because they are improving their ability rather than their potential. A player can get a lot closer to their maximum potential at Manchester United than Western United, but they can't exceed their potential.

[Enzu225]

7 minutes ago, CFuller said:

So what are you suggesting? That a player can have 100 PA at Manchester United but only 40 PA at Western United? That's probably an exaggeration, but whatever.

Training facilities and coaching should affect a player's CA, not their PA, because they are improving their ability rather than their potential. A player can get a lot closer to their maximum potential at Manchester United than Western United, but they can't exceed their potential. 

Exactly.

The whole point I am trying to make is that when I was managing Turkey U19, I had midfield players with 12+ vision, 12+ passing and 10+ technique, but with only 80 potential.  Although they would have performed nicely, it would not have been smart to pick players with such low potential for the national team.

[Enzu225]

If a player has 80 PA (talent) and signs a contract with a 4 star team, his potential PA range will be 80-110.

If a player has 80 PA (talent) and signs a contract with a 5 star team, his potential PA range will be 80-130.

PA could increase until the player becomes 18-21 years old. If the player becomes 25-28 years old the PA will start to drop. PA will not drop below the players talent.

[CFuller]

1 hour ago, Enzu225 said:

If a player has 80 PA (talent) and signs a contract with a 4 star team, his potential PA range will be 80-110.

If a player has 80 PA (talent) and signs a contract with a 5 star team, his potential PA range will be 80-130.

PA could increase until the player becomes 18-21 years old. If the player becomes 25-28 years old the PA will start to drop. PA will not drop below the players talent.

Again, you are completely missing the point of how potential works. You can improve your ability but you cannot improve your potential. (Case in point: both my parents were tall, and I grew to 6ft 4in, so I was never likely to become a horse racing jockey of any distinction, not even if I spent every day of my life on a horse.)

We had a huge discussion about this last year, so I'll leave you with that instead of continuing to run in circles.

[Enzu225]

9 minutes ago, CFuller said:

Again, you are completely missing the point of how potential works. You can improve your ability but you cannot improve your potential. 

We had a huge discussion about this last year, so I'll leave you with that instead of continuing to run in circles.

This differs from the 'natural talent' mentioned in that topic.

I do not wish to remove the PA. The players will still have PA as numerical or negative values (for example -5 (70-100)).

Most Estonian regens in FM2018 have max 100 PA. Are you saying that in real life, if they were to enter Barcelona academy at the age of 15, they could never exceed their original potential?

[CFuller]

2 minutes ago, Enzu225 said:

Most Estonian regens in FM2018 have max 100 PA. Are you saying that in real life, if they were to enter Barcelona academy at the age of 15, they could never exceed their original potential?

An average Estonian prospect could reach the peak of their abilities at Real Madrid, as opposed to if they stayed at a second-division club at home... but to answer your question, yes.

Dong Fangzhuo was the first Chinese player to sign for Manchester United. The thing is, though, he wasn't ever very good. He left after making one league appearance in four years, flopped in Poland, Portugal and Armenia, and even struggled for form when he returned home. At international level, he was capped 13 times by China, scoring one goal. He retired from football at the age of 29.

If your PA system was to be put in place, you could conceivably pluck five schoolboys from Luxembourg, drop them into Barcelona's academy, and grossly inflate their ability AND potential. You could then do the same for a bang-average youngster from Dover Athletic who was never going to make it beyond non-league football.

[Enzu225]

9 minutes ago, CFuller said:

If your PA system was to be put in place, you could conceivably pluck five schoolboys from Luxembourg, drop them into Barcelona's academy, and grossly inflate their ability AND potential. You could then do the same for a bang-average youngster from Dover Athletic who was never going to make it beyond non-league football.

This is where the player performance comes into place. If the player makes a lot of mistakes and gets a 5 (out of 10) rating every game, then he will never develop into a star.

13 hours ago, Enzu225 said:

When I was managing Turkey U19, I had midfield players with 12+ vision, 12+ passing and 10+ technique, but with only 80 potential.  Although they would have performed nicely, it would not have been smart to pick players with such low potential for the national team.

Players for U19 national teams should be picked by their performance, not by potential.

[Enzu225]

2 hours ago, CFuller said:

If your PA system was to be put in place, you could conceivably pluck five schoolboys from Luxembourg, drop them into Barcelona's academy, and grossly inflate their ability AND potential. You could then do the same for a bang-average youngster from Dover Athletic who was never going to make it beyond non-league football

If the youth has high professionalism, determination and ambition, then why not. His CA and PA could increase, but his abilities and consistency determine how good a player he is. The thing is that such youngsters are extremely rare. Luxembourg does not produce many professional and ambitious youngsters. 

 

[CFuller]

6 minutes ago, Enzu225 said:

If the youth has high professionalism, determination and ambition, then why not. His CA and PA could increase, but his abilities and consistency determine how good a player he is. The thing is that such youngsters are extremely rare. Luxembourg does not produce many professional and ambitious youngsters. 

Which is realistic.

Professional, determination and ambition already do their job. A 150 PA player with high attributes in those areas is much more likely to reach 150 CA than one with low attributes, regardless of whether those two are playing together for Bayern Munich or Albion Rovers (I could do these comparisons all day long if I really wanted to). A young model professional in SPFL League Two with average potential isn't suddenly going to have well above-average potential if he moves to the Bundesliga; he would just have a greater chance of reaching his peak.

Frankly, I don't know how else I can explain this, and I'd rather not spend the rest of my weekend trying to. Instead, I'll suggest you read through that thread I linked above - specifically, all the posts by santy001. He's the SI researcher for Stoke City and is a notable authority on CA/PA.

[DementedHammer]

On 16/09/2018 at 19:01, CFuller said:

We had a huge discussion about this last year, so I'll leave you with that instead of continuing to run in circles.

Thanks for posting that link. It was an interesting read.

[llDracoll]

I think part of the problem is that scouts are somehow psychic (if sometimes inaccurate) and know how far a player can go.

You find a youngster with unassuming stats getting recommended at a top-tier club just because the scout got the knowledge he has a very high potential, as if they could see the future.

It doesn't work that way IRL. Most of the promising players are considered as such due to what they can do at their current age. 

You see a youngster play and think "He's really good at this young age. He could turn out to be world class at this rate." (a 16-year-old youngster with 2* ability, 5* potential). Your example of that Solomon Islands defender would fit here because, well, he's fantastic for a 15-year-old player. That happens all the time IRL - think of Odegaard.

Now, what of these things seem likely to happen IRL?

- You see a youngster play and think "He's nothing special now, but he will be a world-beater real soon." (a 23-year-old player with 2* ability, 5* potential) 

- You see a youngster play and think "He's amazing at his age, but this is his peak. He won't grow any further." (a 16-year-old youngster with 2* ability, 2* potential)

The answer is "neither". The latter case is most jarring to me - how the heck does the scout know that this player that is already as good as my first-choice player at that position is not going to grow at all as a player in his ~20 years of career?

The potential ability in scout reports should be reworked, not PA. Youngsters with low current ability should get more modest potential estimations, and those with high current ability should get their potential inflated, because they can't see the future.

They should also take personality into account to estimate potential, as it has a lot to do with the possibility the player has to reach it. Two players with similar stats would have a similar current ability estimation, but if one has a much better personality than the other, that player's potential should be considered higher.

[HUNT3R]

14 hours ago, llDracoll said:

The potential ability in scout reports should be reworked, not PA. Youngsters with low current ability should get more modest potential estimations, and those with high current ability should get their potential inflated, because they can't see the future.

This is pretty much what happens now though. Take a look at this for example : 

Looking at that, Perceived CA is a factor into estimating potential. It's not perfect though : 

Not sure why Joey Stevens is rated so poorly given that he has decent CA.

[llDracoll]

5 hours ago, HUNT3R said:

This is pretty much what happens now though. Take a look at this for example : 

Looking at that, Perceived CA is a factor into estimating potential. It's not perfect though : 

Not sure why Joey Stevens is rated so poorly given that he has decent CA.

Not really, they are still estimating potential from PA. Look at this guy:

How do scouts know that he's most likely not going to improve at all? (Which is correct, his PA is barely a few points above his CA) He's just 16, and he has fairly good stats for his age!

[HUNT3R]

7 minutes ago, llDracoll said:

Not really, they are still estimating potential from PA. Look at this guy:

How do scouts know that he's most likely not going to improve at all? (Which is correct, his PA is barely a few points above his CA) He's just 16, and he has fairly good stats for his age!

PPA isn't based on PA and you're only showing one player. Look at my screens of entire intakes. The Man Utd coaches are rating a 32/41 player the same as a 46/124 player as an example. In both cases, they don't think the player will get far. In one case, they're wrong. And I still am baffled why Stevens is rated so low even with a high CA.

[Neil Brock]

Reviewed so locked.