Unrealistic Alexander Isak sale

[ramlaku]

I sold Alexander Isak with AIK to AC Milan in January 2017 for £46m upfront, 50% sell on clause, and a 2 season loan back. This strikes me as highly unrealistic. Any thoughts on this?

[dieu]

Why is that unrealistic? Ok, the price is excessive, but we are talking about one of the most promising young prospects in the world. 

Lets talk unrealistic. Man Utd paying £42 million upfront with the possibility to reach £58 million for a 19 year old nobody from Monaco... Now thats unrealistic!!!  Oh wait.... 

 

Tony Martial, he comes from France!

The English press said he got no chance.

50 million down the drain. Tony Martial scores again!

[HemHat]

1 minute ago, dieu said:

Why is that unrealistic? Ok, the price is excessive, but we are talking about one of the most promising young prospects in the world. 

Lets talk unrealistic. Man Utd paying £42 million upfront and the possibility  for a 19 year old nobody from Monaco... Now thats unrealisticc!!!  Oh wait.... 

 

Tony Martial, he comes from France!

The English press said he got no chance.

50 million down the drain. Tony Martial scores again!

I don't think there's a club in the world that would pay £46m up front and then immediately loan back for two years

[dieu]

With the transfer market the way it is these days... Don't bet on it! 

Let's look logically at it from Milans perspective.

Isak is 17 in january 2017. That means that he will be 19 when he moves to Milan. Still a boy really!

They feel that he is not ready to play in their team just yet because the step up from Allsvenskan to the Seria A is a huge one for a 17 yeard old. 

They have payed top dollar for him and and don't think that he is best served with playing in their reserves/youth team. They want him to keep playing first team football in a safe environments so that his development does not stall. How do they do that? They have to loan him out. But who can they loan him out to? They can find another club in a smaller league, but why remove him from the environment he grew up in just to loan him to another club in a league that is similar in quality to the Allsvenskan?

I react to the transfer fee as well, and think it is excessive, but the loan back makes sense on many levels.

[wesleymcuk]

Man City paid £32 Million for Gabriel Jesus and loaned him back to  Palmeiras

[Andreas Svart]

I agree that it's too much to be realistic. Not because of the fact that you have him loaned back for 2 seasons, but more because any player from the Allsvenskan wouldn't sell for that amount in 2017. He hasn't proven himself outside Sweden. The fact that there is a 50% sell on clause makes it even more ridiculous!

[vasilli07]

Original or edited database?

[HemHat]

1 hour ago, dieu said:

With the transfer market the way it is these days... Don't bet on it! 

Let's look logically at it from Milans perspective.

Isak is 17 in january 2017. That means that he will be 19 when he moves to Milan. Still a boy really!

They feel that he is not ready to play in their team just yet because the step up from Allsvenskan to the Seria A is a huge one for a 17 yeard old. 

They have payed top dollar for him and and don't think that he is best served with playing in their reserves/youth team. They want him to keep playing first team football in a safe environments so that his development does not stall. How do they do that? They have to loan him out. But who can they loan him out to? They can find another club in a smaller league, but why remove him from the environment he grew up in just to loan him to another club in a league that is similar in quality to the Allsvenskan?

I react to the transfer fee as well, and think it is excessive, but the loan back makes sense on many levels.

Unlikely that he would be better served staying where he is, and unlikely that Milan would see it that way imo.

1 hour ago, wesleymcuk said:

Man City paid £32 Million for Gabriel Jesus and loaned him back to  Palmeiras

Isn't that because of Brazil's rules regarding under 18 transfers?

[dieu]

4 minutes ago, HemHat said:

Unlikely that he would be better served staying where he is, and unlikely that Milan would see it that way imo.

Why?

[HemHat]

19 minutes ago, dieu said:

Why?

Well I don't know what AIK's training facilities are like, but I can't imagine they're better than AC's. Also AC would surely want to train him to their ideas asap. Plus they're £42m down so I cannot see them wanting to remain where he is in case of injury etc in an inferior league. Look at Odegaard for example.

Just seems unrealistic is all - if it ever happens in real life we can all see what the do I suppose

[Kingkestrel]

I think the Gabriel Jesus thing was to do with age regulations as was Iheanacho the season before. The Brazilian league is very highly reputed with many of the greatest players In the history of the sport starting out there, with a national team that have and always will be one of the favourites come world cup season.

Completely unrealistic forget the 50% sell on fee or two season loan back which are stupendous in their own right, any player from the Scandinavian league's can't demand that sort of fee 10m would be unrealistic, and as far as I know has never happened let alone 46m. Odegaard was the biggest thing to come out of that region In the last 10 years and went for 3m.

[dieu]

Malmø training facilities:

Malmø is one of the richest and best clubs in sweeden, and they have one of the best academies. I might point you to a certain Zlatan Ibrahimovic so you get a sense of the kind of player they have produced before.

As you can se from the screen shot above their facilities are pretty ok. Not as good as AC Milans of course, but not far off. 

I would also like to point you to this article about FM: (Since it is FM we are talking about.

https://www.passion4fm.com/football-manager-2017-best-youth-academy-clubs/

Please look who's ranked at nr. 35.

Also one of the most important factors for player development in FM is game time. Game time that Isak is not going to get at AC Milan. (Becasue he is not good enough yet.)

It makes total sense for AC Milan to loan him out to the 35th best academy in the game for two years so that he play games and let him develop into a player that can be good enough for their first team squad when he arrives.

 

[HemHat]

We're not talking about Malmo though, are we?

Also, other than Zlatan, how many players have they produced? I can't be bothered to google it as we're arguing about a fictional transfer made in the save game of some random player.

It's unrealistic mate, accept it.

[JohnMatrix316]

Isak plays for AIK in Sweden. Not Malmo.

[dieu]

8 minutes ago, Kingkestrel said:

Completely unrealistic forget the 50% sell on fee or two season loan back which are stupendous in their own right, any player from the Scandinavian league's can't demand that sort of fee 10m would be unrealistic, and as far as I know has never happened let alone 46m. Odegaard was the biggest thing to come out of that region In the last 10 years and went for 3m.

Oh I completely agree that this specific transfer would never happen in real life, but that is not what I am arguing here either. I am arguing wether this move makes logical sense in FM, and the answer is yes. It does.

The problem here is not the fee or that AC Milan is prepared to pay it. The problem here is the human manager. It is he that acts unrealistic becasue he has negoitiated that deal with AC Milan. The human manager knows that Isak is one of the best prospects in FM and that he is an almost guaranteed world class star if developed correctly. So when AC Milan comes calling he does not consider what is best for the kid. He just wants top dollar. So AC Milan comes in with a £3 mill bid. The human manager rejects it without thinking about it. The AI comes back with £5 Mill. Human still refuse. Next bid 7 mill. Human manager thinks ok I'll negotiate to see what I can get. He then quotes an very unrealistic price, and AC Milan accepts. (The exact scenario was probably not like this, but I would bet that I am not far off.)

Why do they accept? Because they look at CA/PA stats when they decide who to buy. Isak has a really high PA and that is why the AI concludes that Isak is worth the price. The only way we can compare this to real life is to look and see if a similar transfer has happened, and the answer is yes. It has. (Martial)

The problem here is that the human manager has acted as if he is Monaco instead of Malmø. Unrealistic behaviour by the human manager leads to unrealistic behaviour by the AI.

[dieu]

6 minutes ago, JohnMatrix316 said:

Isak plays for AIK in Sweden. Not Malmo.

Not really. He plays for Dortmund in germany.

But you are correct. My mistake, and by that my argument is somewhat weaker, but they still has good facilities so still makes sense.

[JohnMatrix316]

1 minute ago, dieu said:

Not really. He plays for Dortmund in germany.

But you are correct. My mistake, and by that my argument is somewhat weaker, but they still has good facilities so still makes sense.

I was meaning at the start of the game. You knew what I meant though. Good points being made on both sides of the discussion.

[Kingkestrel]

14 minutes ago, dieu said:

Malmø training facilities:

Malmø is one of the richest and best clubs in sweeden, and they have one of the best academies. I might point you to a certain Zlatan Ibrahimovic so you get a sense of the kind of player they have produced before.

As you can se from the screen shot above their facilities are pretty ok. Not as good as AC Milans of course, but not far off. 

I would also like to point you to this article about FM: (Since it is FM we are talking about.

https://www.passion4fm.com/football-manager-2017-best-youth-academy-clubs/

Please look who's ranked at nr. 35.

Also one of the most important factors for player development in FM is game time. Game time that Isak is not going to get at AC Milan. (Becasue he is not good enough yet.)

It makes total sense for AC Milan to loan him out to the 35th best academy in the game for two years so that he play games and let him develop into a player that can be good enough for their first team squad when he arrives.

 

I disagree, a player that goes for that sort of money you need to get Into the top leagues ASAP no club would agree to a two year loan without seeing the player himself In and around the training ground he may be ready right now after all.  If not then after a season he certainly could be, a season could maybe happen although highly unlikely, 2 seasons never!!.

I agree that he needs regular game time, If you feel he's not ready (which Is highly unlikely anyway at 46m) you loan him to a lower table club preferably In the same division as you so he learns the language and style of football If not then still to a club in the top 7 leagues. Plus the fans want to be able to see what 46m gets them without having to stream games on a Swedish sports site with adverts popping up of a blonde lasses trying to sell you furniture every 5 seconds.

[HemHat]

Mostly agree with what you're saying re, the game transfer system. 

There's a big problem imo buying young players with clubs demanding ridiculous prices. Different discussion though

[xtradj]

If you spend 46m on a 17 year old who at the start of the game has more or less no experience then that to me is unrealistic 

Apart from the fact you would not then loan back for 2 years. If you wanted to do this you'd try and agree a first option to see how he progressed before buying and you certainly wouldn't want him back at AIK in those two years due to facilities and poor quality of the league

Also a 50 percent sell on clause for a player you sign for 46m? That means you'd need to sell him for 92m just to get your money back! Very strange deal. However good for you if your managing AIK

[Andreas Svart]

1 hour ago, Kingkestrel said:

any player from the Scandinavian league's can't demand that sort of fee 10m would be unrealistic, and as far as I know has never happened let alone 46m. Odegaard was the biggest thing to come out of that region In the last 10 years and went for 3m.

I get your point, and we're on the same side on this topic. It must be said that Ødegaard is in no way the biggest transfer going out of Scandinavia the last 10 years. FC Nordsjælland sold Emre Mor for over double the price for Ødegaard to Dortmund last summer. I can name other players from the Danish league as Daniel Agger, Andreas Cornelius or Christian Bassogog who were sold for much much more. Jores Okore, Ludwig Augustinsson etc.

[Guest]

If I was still doing QA on transfers & assuming there is no crazy editing I'd have taken time to investigate this deal & probably pass to the coder to investigate.

At face value the fee is too high based on the nations of both selling & buying clubs, the loan back at most should cover the remainder of the season (subject to a lower fee & Milan's squad depth) & the future fee is far too much when such as large initial fee is paid.

[Kingkestrel]

52 minutes ago, Barside said:

If I was still doing QA on transfers & assuming there is no crazy editing I'd have taken time to investigate this deal & probably pass to the coder to investigate.

At face value the fee is too high based on the nations of both selling & buying clubs, the loan back at most should cover the remainder of the season (subject to a lower fee & Milan's squad depth) & the future fee is far too much when such as large initial fee is paid.

The opening poster could be a compulsive liar or he's failed to put In a decimal point, I'd like to see a screenshot to be honest.

1 hour ago, Andreas Svart said:

I get your point, and we're on the same side on this topic. It must be said that Ødegaard is in no way the biggest transfer going out of Scandinavia the last 10 years. FC Nordsjælland sold Emre Mor for over double the price for Ødegaard to Dortmund last summer. I can name other players from the Danish league as Daniel Agger, Andreas Cornelius or Christian Bassogog who were sold for much much more. Jores Okore, Ludwig Augustinsson etc.

My point wasn't that 3m was the highest fee ever payed for a player coming out of Scandinavia, I know that Ibrahimovic was signed for 6m and that was around 16 years earlier so In todays market would have probably gone for around 10m. My point was more that Odegaard at 16 Is the highest profile player to leave Scandinavia In the last few years (probably because lots of clubs were interested including Real Madrid) and still only went for 3m, It Makes 46m seem utterely unrealsitic especially with him being a similar age to Isak.

[ramlaku]

3 hours ago, Kingkestrel said:

The opening poster could be a compulsive liar or he's failed to put In a decimal point, I'd like to see a screenshot to be honest.

I haven't edited anything in the database, it's the original db. Here are some screenshots. I feel like this must be a problem with the game!

[Guest]

The fact that AC had that sort of money to spend on what is essentially a future transfer would be my immediate point of investigation, no way that a Serie A side other than Juventus should have those sort of funds available for a key player signing let alone a future prospect.

Unfortunately having spent time assessing & posting about ambitions & plain inaccurate financial reporting in the Italian data last year I'm not surprised that this has happened, although that said it could have been another club that actually does have the wealth to the finance such a deal but irl the common sense to walk away.

If you have a save before AC Milan make their initial offer or ideally before they show an interest in the player it is worth posting this in the bugs forum as the transfer system did get a significant update for FM17 to encourage clubs to spend more as their lack of spending has always been an area of criticism & while it's always good to see the AI spending big money of players at the user's club this isn't really the type of deal that I suspect SI were anticipating to happen.

[Kingkestrel]

I was only kidding ramlaku, but still crazy to actually see the actual screenshots. I can assure you AC Milan don't have 46m In 16/17 unless they sold two out of Bacca, Romagnoli and Niang their prized assets even then that makes the signing of a 17 year old who you're not going to see for two seasons even more absurd.

[Guest]

I personally like the £500 pcm instalment payments & it does suggest that the total value logic has failed as that has no place in a deal of this magnitude.

[Soninho]

6 hours ago, HemHat said:

We're not talking about Malmo though, are we?

Also, other than Zlatan, how many players have they produced? I can't be bothered to google it as we're arguing about a fictional transfer made in the save game of some random player.

It's unrealistic mate, accept it.

Rosenberg! (The King of Malmo..) Also Jansson whos always loved by the fans! (Congrats Leeds..) Helander (Verona). Older players like Martin Dahlin, Stefan Schwartz etc.. Some that are not from academy but got their breakthrough here is Durmaz, Hamad and a player known to German fans, Forsberg!! To name a few...

On topic: This is one of the most crazy transfers I've seen..! Surely a bug as Barside stated! In Sweden we thought he go around the amounts of what Zlatan did.. Neither of them had proved anything and actually Isak has played more in Allsvenskan than Zlatan.. 10 million fee and up is highly unrealistic despite the fact that Allsvenskans rep has improved sinces Malmos double CL qualifications...

[Andreas Svart]

12 hours ago, Kingkestrel said:

My point wasn't that 3m was the highest fee ever payed for a player coming out of Scandinavia, I know that Ibrahimovic was signed for 6m and that was around 16 years earlier so In todays market would have probably gone for around 10m. My point was more that Odegaard at 16 Is the highest profile player to leave Scandinavia In the last few years (probably because lots of clubs were interested including Real Madrid) and still only went for 3m, It Makes 46m seem utterely unrealsitic especially with him being a similar age to Isak.

Well I still don't agree. Ødegaard was maybe the most hyped in the media, but he was in no way the biggest profile leaving. And if players at the same age gets sold for more (Emre Mor and Alexander Isak himself) the point is not really valid either way.

[upthetoon]

we have been talking about failed AI in the transfer market for years. nothing new here and nothing's fixed till today.

move on and accept it.

[pelewasgood]

I just had a similar thing with a regen, albeit on a smaller scale.

 

Playing as Hibs in a youth development save, Arsenal offered to sign my 18 year old regen winger for £5m, which I negotiated up to £7.5m and loaning him back to me for the rest of the season. Spotted the option to extend the loan for another year, and basically I'm feeling good about the whole deal.

[fmfan74]

I am in the year 2019 and isak is at 3.3 mill only.  I got him prior to patch 17.3 so what is going on here.  Why isn't his price tag that high.  His playing for one of my greek teams.  If you sold him for over 40 mill whilst he was in Sweden then how much of a difference is there between the Greek league.  Probably not a huge difference but still shouldn't be that low whilst his playing in Greece.  Something is not right here.   I hope someone has an explanation to this.

[Marabak]

It may be unrealisitic (that is for other people to decide) but if you are complaining about it being unrealistic, cancel the transfer and sell him again for a much cheaper amount.