England's chances

France 10/3

Germany 10/3

Spain 11/2

England 17/2

Belgium 11/1

Italy 16/1

Portugal 20/1

Croatia 33/1

Austria 40/1

Poland 50/1

Wales 66/1

Russia 66/1

Switzerland 66/1

Czech Republic 80/1

Turkey 80/1

Ukraine 80/1

Bar 100/1

When I look at that and who England would beat and who it would be a tight competition with. With the tight competition ones its basically a contest of 6 teams. France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Italy, England and Portugal. Maybe Croatia too.If England played at their best they ought to beat the smaller teams. So it's just a cup contest of 6 teams and the lottery that is. So if there is no slumps, where England draw by failing to play well against lesser teams (Wales) then England have a 14% chance of winning it.

Also notably Scotland's chance of winning it is nil.

When I look at that and who England would beat and who it would be a tight competition with. With the tight competition ones its basically a contest of 6 teams. France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Italy, England and Portugal. Maybe Croatia too.If England played at their best they ought to beat the smaller teams. So it's just a cup contest of 6 teams and the lottery that is. So if there is no slumps, where England draw by failing to play well against lesser teams (Wales) then England have a 14% chance of winning it.

Also notably Scotland's chance of winning it is nil.

And there was me thinking that England just didn't care about Scotland...

Not sure I'd go by the odds. I wouldn't have them as 4th favourites, but looking at those rated below, you could probably only argue that Italy would go above. Belgium could, but feels like they might always flatter to deceive. Portugal could, but don't have the talent all round to match their best player(s).

It's a lot harder to predict once you pass the group stages thanks to the convoluted way the knockouts will be drawn. With the World Cup, you know that if you're in Group A, you'll play someone from Group B for example. England are in Group B, so they could potentially play...

Winner of Group D (if they finish 3rd)

Winner of Group C (if they finish 3rd)

Runner-up of Group F (if they finish 2nd)

3rd place of Group A/C/D (if they top the group)

So one of six teams. I can't see them finishing 3rd to be honest, and personally I think they'll top it with Russia and Wales battling it out for 2nd/3rd. That means it could be any one of Romania, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine, Croatia, Turkey, Czech Republic (or potentially Germany, Spain or France should they have a terrible group stage). Should they finish second, one of Portugal, Iceland, Hungary or Austria. There's such a massive range of sides in there that anything could happen. Then when it reaches the quarter finals, there isn't one side in the tournament that they can't potentially draw there at this stage.

I expect it'll be quarter finals where they'll exit to one of the big teams. But then I argued that they could reach the same stage of the World Cup. That worked out well.

Usual story for me. Stumble to the top of the group despite not playing very well, probably scrape through the round of 16 if we then get paired with a team that's come third somewhere, go out in the quarter finals when we come across the first opponent that's among the top 6-8 sides. A few people call for a "root and branch review" when we don't get to the last four but Hodgson clings on to his job (or worse, gets replaced by a horribly smug Alan Pardrew), and we go again in 2018.

Alan Pardew that'll be a horror story for sure.

And there was me thinking that England just didn't care about Scotland...

Not sure I'd go by the odds. I wouldn't have them as 4th favourites, but looking at those rated below, you could probably only argue that Italy would go above. Belgium could, but feels like they might always flatter to deceive. Portugal could, but don't have the talent all round to match their best player(s).

It's a lot harder to predict once you pass the group stages thanks to the convoluted way the knockouts will be drawn. With the World Cup, you know that if you're in Group A, you'll play someone from Group B for example. England are in Group B, so they could potentially play...

Winner of Group D (if they finish 3rd)

Winner of Group C (if they finish 3rd)

Runner-up of Group F (if they finish 2nd)

3rd place of Group A/C/D (if they top the group)

l.

no way are they really doing it that crazy. That's going to be a pain.

It's four 3rd place teams from six that go through but obviously you don't know which four until all six groups are finished because it depends on points per game and goal difference etc. in a head to head comparison between all the 3rd place teams. So you will have a situation where whoever finishes 3rd in Groups A and B probably won't know whether they're through or not until they get the result of another game in another group a couple of days later.

Then once you know which four groups are putting a third place team forward, there is a ludicrously complicated table to refer to which plays out all the combinations and pairs everybody up with a group winner for the R16.

i.e. 3rd place teams could come from

ABCD

ABCE

ABCF

ABDE

ABDF

ABEF

ACDE

ACDF

ACEF

ADEF

BCDE

BCDF

BCEF

BDEF

CDEF

All with a different allocation then of specific 3rd place teams against specific group winners

Hence why it's "Winner A v 3rd in Group C, D or E" etc.

This infact:

But yeah, to the earlier post, there must be about 15 different teams that you could come up against in the R16 if not more, depending how all the results play out.

Whereas in a WC you know before a ball's kicked that your second round opponent can only be one of four teams in a specific group.

Alan Pardew that'll be a horror story for sure.

no way are they really doing it that crazy. That's going to be a pain.

The system worked for the '86, '90 & '94 World Cups, it's only complex for commentators & former footballers who want something new to moan about.

It's not that it's hard to understand, just don't like the way a team can play their last match and not know whether or not they've qualified for another day or two.

Takes a lot of the drama out of the third round of games.

It happens in a lot of sports and it works, golf is just one example, where you can finish your round and have to wait. Totally different sports of course, but I see no issue in waiting after your final result.

I think we might see a couple of suspicious results. Lots of draws in the third games probably. Its definitely open to abuse.

I think we might see a couple of suspicious results. Lots of draws in the third games probably. Its definitely open to abuse.

Utter tosh.

Its not though is it. The reason the last games of the group in the world cup are played at the same time are to stop things like this happening

But with this format, the only time that is going to be guaranteed is with the last game, because with two teams going out in the third placed spots, it's important for all those third placed teams to try and finish as well as possible.

Only the last set of games are going to have a situation where they know what will be needed of them to finish third and qualify.

Your initial comment is akin to Daily Mail scaremongering based on not thinking through what you're suggesting might happen.

Its not though is it. The reason the last games of the group in the world cup are played at the same time are to stop things like this happening

Which is why the final matches in each group will be played at the same time so there's no change on that front, in fact not knowing who you will face in the 2nd round until all but the the last group games have completed decreases the risk of result manipulation when compared to the known progression system.

btw the W.Germany v Austria match was not at a tournament using this system.

Its a bit of a mathematical mine field to predict what can happen but certain teams will know what they have to do in their final group games. It's pretty naïve to think it wont cross teams minds.

And the reason the World Cup system was brought into place was because of the W.Germany vs Austria match

After the Germany-Austria game (1982) they stopped playing the final two games in a specific group at different times.

But they still had three 24-team World Cups after that with this Winner D versus 3rd place in Group A, B or E stuff

Having third place teams go through is a nonsense anyway. Why the 24-team thing was a terrible idea

Having third place teams go through is a nonsense anyway. Why the 24-team thing was a terrible idea

Without playing the tournament, we can't know that for sure.

Everybody said the qualifying for it would be awful too, but it was one of the best qualifying rounds that UEFA had had in years for pure entertainment value.

Group stages should be good, a lot fewer dead games.

Where do people get this stuff? Since we've had 16-team Euros and 32-team World Cups there have been about 2-3 "dead games" in 20 years.

Well there were 3 at the last World Cup to begin with. I reckon you're about a factor of 10 out.

Depends what you mean by "dead games".

If you mean games when both teams were already out, I can only remember Japan v Jamaica from France 98, one game from Euro 2000 (I think), Poland-Costa Rica and Ivory Coast-Serbia from 2006 and Spain v Australia last time. Plus Costa Rica v England, where Costa Rica knew they'd won the group and England were out. That's 6 "dead" games from 120 since 1996.

If you're counting games where a team knows they've qualified but don't know where they'll finish in the group then yeah, there would be a handful more. But that's hardly a dead game if it means getting an easier opponent in the knockout stage, plus the new format makes this more likely probably not less. By the time the last couple of groups play there will be teams that know they can drop to third and still get through instead of having to finish first or second.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of a 24-team format. But this idea that the last few World Cups and Euros have been plagued by final round group games with nothing riding on them is a load of rubbish. And frankly it makes little difference to the armchair supporter when the last two games kick off at the same time. On the very rare occasion that two teams meet and neither have anything left to play for, just watch the other game ffs.