Penalty shootouts.. "Too much" of a lottery?

Is there any real point in putting your best penalty takers in a shootout situation in FM 12? Thye had it about right in FM11 but I have played 4 shootouts in 12 and lost the lot.

My latest was just now in a Euro Cup Semi Final Second Leg to Villareal. I lost it 3-0. The takers were :

Taker....................Penalties....................Composure....................Anticipation....................Determination

West Ham

Noble......................18...............................17................................14..................................15

Fletcher..................17...............................15.................................15..................................13

Cole.......................10...............................15.................................14...................................16

Villareal

Nilmar.....................20................................13................................15...................................17

Granero..................13.................................15................................12...................................15

Moya.....................18.................................10.................................11...................................15

This particular season I was also knocked out of the FA Cup by Blackpool 4-2 on penalties. The 4 Blackpools players to score were :

Taker....................Penalties....................Composure....................Anticipation....................Determination

Keogh.....................14................................12...............................10...................................18

Mareos....................8.................................13...............................12...................................13

Whittingham.............13................................15...............................13...................................9

Karami.....................8..................................12...............................11..................................14

Fletcher and Van Persie missed for me with better stats than the above!!

Yes I know it happens IRL but in my 4 shootouts the AI has missed once. In fact I have seen the AI miss more in match penalties than I have in a shootout. And yes I know a shootout is a lottery anyway which is why I say does it really matter who you put down to take them? Bizarrely in both games in extra time I brought on Van Persie and Noble as subs because of their penalty stats and both missed.

Has anyone won more shootouts than they have lost?!

I've had 6 shoots out across my saved games and won 5 of them.

Do you take anticipation and determination into account?

I've had 6 shoots out across my saved games and won 5 of them.

Do you take anticipation and determination into account?

Have updated my post with determination and anticipation.... Anticipation for outfield players on penalties?? That I assume would be a goalkeeping attribute. Granted Villareal had a better goalkeeper than Joe Lewis and he saved two but Noble was very annoying as he never misses and just blasted it straight at the keeper.

I think players attributes hardly matter at all for penalties. I regularly see my main penalty taker miss and my lump of a CB score.

agreed! seem to have alot of missed penalties during games, usually a wonder save from keeper.

Fatigue & current mental state (motivated, nervous, lacking confidence, etc) should also be taken into account, a penalty shoot-out is no place for a bottle job.

Plenty of excellent penalty takers in the England, Dutch & Italian national teams but none of those countries have a stellar history in shoot-outs.

isn't penalties abit lottery life in real life?

i find penalties work well enough tbh, only trouble i have is finding enough player in my team who have high enough attribute for penalties, but the ones who do have 14+ tend to be accurate enough depending on actual number. (eg 20 rating almost always score, 14 rating mostly score but have some saved)

EDIT - i say this even tho i dominated against Man Utd in FA Cup final only to lose on pens

I always put my 6 in PK taking goalkeeper as my main taker and he almost always scores haha

Fatigue & current mental state (motivated, nervous, lacking confidence, etc) should also be taken into account, a penalty shoot-out is no place for a bottle job.

Plenty of excellent penalty takers in the England, Dutch & Italian national teams but none of those countries have a stellar history in shoot-outs.

Agreed but that should apply to the AI as well.

A penalty shootout is a lottery in real life. If you're an english man you should know it's not unusual to lose a lot of shootouts.

But for reference I've won more shootouts than I've lost. Won 2 lost 1 I believe.

Agreed but that should apply to the AI as well.

I'd dare say that a good number of players would ignore things such as condition, confidence & mental strength & just look at the penalty taking attribute.

TBH though the game doesn't quite have shoot-outs right because Germany have lost a few in games that I've played over the years.

Aren't penalty shoot outs a lottery anyway? Remember I recorded a run on FM2010 (in the longest save I've ever managed, 20+ seasons) of 11 consecutive shootout defeats for club and country but in the latest edition I seem to win as many as I lose. I often see my best penalty taker miss in a shootout despite having an exemplary record taking regular penalties, whereas the opposition centre half will smash a peach into the top corner. Maybe they are a lottery, I'm not sure how the game handles them but they must be different from a regular ingame penalty?

Have updated my post with determination and anticipation.... Anticipation for outfield players on penalties?? That I assume would be a goalkeeping attribute. Granted Villareal had a better goalkeeper than Joe Lewis and he saved two but Noble was very annoying as he never misses and just blasted it straight at the keeper.

I wouldn't take anticipation into account, firstly because I've never seen documentation from SI saying it should be taken into account, and secondly because I don't think fooling the goalkeeper with a run up is remotely the same skill as anticipation in a match situation. Even knowing where a player will shoot/dive because someone at the club researched it for you isn't really anticipation.

Determination is important but tbh I think you'd be better off looking at motivation, which determination will affect, than the actual determination attribute. Motivation would also give you an insight into other areas of personality such as pressure and important matches.

For me, finishing is the third most important non-personality attribute, though I only really look at penalties and composure.

I think you've been unlucky. I also lost the only shootout I've had in FM12 despite having better stats for it and presumably better personalities Still, that happens.

i beat arsenal on penantlys. they missed every single one

Thye had it about right in FM11

Errr...what?

Last thing I remember from FM11 is losing 9 out of 10 penalties...throughout all the patches...

There's a goalkeeper in a penalty shootout, too, you know. The PK taker is only half of the equation.

I just noticed in a penalty shootout I had earlier today that if you look at the player motivation during a shootout it has things like"confindent about PS", "anxious about PS". Waiting for the next shootout I get to see if this info is available when selecting the penalty takers.

Needless to say a player who was anxious missed the decisive penalty.

I don't think I've had a penalty shoot out in FM12 yet, so I don't have anything to add.

Except that if it always went to the best attributes, the bigger team would always win which would be unrealistic, so there must be something else evening things up.

Have you seen the movie - Moneyball >?

Very similar i think. Got a huge talent who can score penalties all day long vs goalkeeper in training but when it comes to the game, he bottles it and does a John Terry

I pick my best takers normally and have won 4/5 shootouts in my career to date.