Apaco

EURO 2012 - How accurate is the FM database? (some sort of CA-spoilers)

75 posts in this topic

[quote name='Apaco']Match 19:

Germany vs Denmark:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8
Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 7-11

Match 20:

Holland vs Portugal:

Average CA of Holland: 153,1
Average CA of Portugal: 145,6

According to the db it should be a victory for Holland.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Database: 8-11

In this group did the best and the 3rd best team according to the db go through, so 1 right and 1 wrong for the db also in this group.[/QUOTE]

Should be 8-12 mate.

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[quote name='Apaco']
Match 18:

Czech Rep vs Poland:

Average CA of Czech: 133,9
Average CA of Poland: 133,1

According to the db it should be a victory for Czech or a draw.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database:[B] 7-11 [/B]


The 2nd and 4th best team from the group went through to the next round, so the db had one right and one wrong here too :)[/QUOTE]

[quote name='Apaco']Match 19:

Germany vs Denmark:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8
Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: [B]7-11 [/B]

Match 20:

Holland vs Portugal:

Average CA of Holland: 153,1
Average CA of Portugal: 145,6

According to the db it should be a victory for Holland.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Database: [B]8-11[/B]

In this group did the best and the 3rd best team according to the db go through, so 1 right and 1 wrong for the db also in this group.[/QUOTE]

You forgot to count the first match so I guess the standing is 8-12 :)

Edit: And beaten to it :o

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[quote name='Apaco']Me neither, that game was filled with bad defending both ways.[/QUOTE]

So how come the database got the win in that one? 3-2 is not an easy victory.

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[quote name='Nobby_McDonald']So how come the database got the win in that one? 3-2 is not an easy victory.[/QUOTE]

It's been answered before, just read the thread ;)

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Match 21:

Spain vs Croatia:

Average CA of Spain: 167,6
Average CA of Croatia: 141,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Spain.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 8-13

Match 22:

Italy vs Ireland:

Average CA of Italy: 153,6
Average CA of Ireland: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Italy.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 8-14


First group where the 2 best teams according to the db also went through to the quarter-finals!

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Match 23:

Sweden vs France:

Average CA of Sweden: 138,6
Average CA of France: 155,4

According to the db it should be an easy victory for France.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 9-14

Match 24:

England vs Ukraine:

Average CA of England: 155,5
Average CA of Ukraine: 133,8

According to the db it should be an easy victory for England.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 9-15

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Match 25:

Portugal vs Czech:

Average CA of Portugal: 147,3
Average CA of Czech: 131,2

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Portugal.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 9-16

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Match 26:

Germany vs Greece:

Average CA of Germany: 161,2
Average CA of Greece: 129,3

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 4-1

Real world vs Database: 9-17

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Match 27:

Spain vs France:

Average CA of Spain: 168,1
Average CA of France: 157

According to the db it should be a rather easy victory for Spain.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 9-18

Now the database has had the correct result in 2 out of 3 matches! 4 matches to go!

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Match 28:

England vs Italy

Average CA of England: 156,2
Average CA of Italy: 152,4

According to db it should be a win for England or a draw.

Result: 0-0 (Italy won after penalty)

Real world vs Databse: 9-19

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The database is running away with it.

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Hmm, I'm looking for a different term for "Real world". Because technically, all matches were played in the real world, thus, the real world got it right 27 times ;)

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Match 29:

Spain vs Portugal

Average CA of Spain: 167,7
Average CA of Portugal: 145,7

According to db it should be an easy win for Spain.

Result: 0-0 (Spain won after penalty)

Real world vs Databse: 10-19

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[quote name='SCIAG']The database is running away with it.[/QUOTE]

Yeah. The database seems to get 2 out of 3 matches right this time. Compared to the world cup 2 years ago it's a lot better.

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Match 30:

Germany vs Italy

Average CA of Germany: 161,4
Average CA of Italy: 153,2

According to db it should be a win for Germany.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Databse: 11-19

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Match 31:

Spain vs Italy

Average CA of Spain: 168,2
Average CA of Italy: 154,3

According to db it should be an easy victory for Spain.

Result 4-0

Real world vs Databse 11-20

Database was right in 64,5% of the matches....almost 10% better than in the World Cup.


If we look at the best teams that the nations has used in this tournament:

1. Spain: CA 168,5 - ended as winner!
2. Germany: CA 161,8 - semi final.
3. France: CA 157,0 - Quarter final.
4. England: CA 155,5 - Quarter final.
5. Italy: Ca 154,0 - 2. place!
6. Holland: Ca 153,3 - Group stage
7. Portugal: Ca 147,9 - Semi final
8. Croatia: Ca 143,3 - Group stage
9. Russia: Ca 142,8 - Group stage
10. Sweden Ca 139,5 - Group stage
11: Ukraine Ca 137,8 - Group stage
12: Denmark: Ca 136,5 - Group stage
13: Ireland Ca 136,0 - Group stage
14: Czech rep Ca 134,9 - Quarter final
15: Poland Ca 133,8 - Group Stage
16: Greece: Ca 129,6 - Quarter final

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FACT - FM database won

Suggest you do this on the new FM13 db when it comes out and get down the bookies - Sorted

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Well done. Sick thread. Good to know our database is competent.

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When you consider that England are artificially high (because most of the customers are from England), then the database has done very well.

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[quote name='Nocuous']When you consider that England are artificially high (because most of the customers are from England), then the database has done very well.[/QUOTE]
You're very wrong.

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[quote name='Fabio MVP']You're very wrong.[/QUOTE]

Normally one would back such a statement with an argument...

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I would be very interested to hear how English fans perceive ability of their national team (physical, mental and technical ability of players)? Do fans blame players or managers or both for perceived lack of success in past 20 years? In my personal (and very biased) opinion managers definitely were not the problem (8 different managers + 3 caretakers) nor was the undeniably poor technical ability of most English players. The real problem is that English players for some reason really lack tactical intelligence and discipline.

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[quote name='Sikker']Normally one would back such a statement with an argument...[/QUOTE]
Really? To back a statement without argument with an argument? Of course that isn't correct if you count ''because most of the customers are from England'' as an argument?

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[quote name='Govnar1']I would be very interested to hear how English fans perceive ability of their national team (physical, mental and technical ability of players)? Do fans blame players or managers or both for perceived lack of success in past 20 years? In my personal (and very biased) opinion managers definitely were not the problem (8 different managers + 3 caretakers) nor was the undeniably poor technical ability of most English players. The real problem is that English players for some reason really lack tactical intelligence and discipline.[/QUOTE]

i feel that it's due to the immense physicality of the english premier league
players become so adapted to playing to that style, just a shame that it doesn't work internationally

of course, you've also got the quality of the players as well
the fact that almost 50% of the English team comes from mid-table teams such as Everton/Villa/Liverpool(to an extent) speaks volumes, especially when most great nations have their from the top teams
(Spain is dominated by Real and Barca players; Italy is AC, Inter and Juve; Germany is Bayern and Dortmund)

also think that the media is partly an issue too, the team is so focussed on not failing, that negativity creeps into the play (see match vs Algeria in SouthAfrica)
it's probably the appeasal of these why most of the squad that FAILED to qualify for Euro2008 is still playing, despite the talented youth coming through (England u19s made the Euro u19s final back in 10, they lost to Ukraine - they've continually made the u19 competition as well)

it's not just one thing, but a whole heap of issues

edit: with regards to OP, i'd have expected the database to predict mainly correct
the scouting team in FM is second to none, and there's plenty of discussion in the data issues sections

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It did turn out to be an interesting read after the Euros.

Now, I wonder how much you would have won, or lost, if you had put a fiver on each database predicted winner for every game.

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