Potential Ability - should it exist?

[JimbobWWFC]

But to have potential they have to be good at their age/group/level in the first place!

Yes that's fair enough. Which means a good CA, but their PA wasn't good enough for them to improve enough to get into the 1st team

[chopper99]

But to have potential they have to be good at their age/group/level in the first place!

Not necissarily, plenty of players peak at an older age (e.g. Kevin Phillips, Luca Toni, Arshavan). And in terms of FM that would mean that they always had a high PA, just their CA moved slowely towards it.

It works the other way too. Plenty of youngsters have looked brilliant at 18 (Freddy Adu anyone?) but have gone onto be not that good. This would be the equivalent of them having a relatively high CA compared to their peers, but a fairly low PA.

[JimbobWWFC]

Not necissarily, plenty of players peak at an older age (e.g. Kevin Phillips, Luca Toni, Arshavan). And in terms of FM that would mean that they always had a high PA, just their CA moved slowely towards it.

Actually, this was kind of like that football game where you can create youngsters and choose which type of development curve they had in terms of overall stats (e.g. Peak early then slowly decrease, peak early and maintain good stats, peak late, and everything in between)

(not sure if I should be mentioning other games' name in here, that's why I haven't included it)

[Sir Stuart Wilson]

Yes, like Scholes, Giggs, Neville and co did when they were taken on. There will also have been many other players signed to the acadamy at the same time who didn't make it big.

Why? Because they never had the potential.

So how do you judge potential in the game when it is already predetermined and bears no resemblance or relativity to attributes? Especially with young players?

[JimbobWWFC]

So how do you judge potential in the game when it is already predetermined and bears no resemblance or relativity to attributes? Especially with young players?

That is the whole risk of buying for the future. You can't always judge it exactly, that's what happens. We are not supposed to KNOW someone's exact potential, in real life or on FM, that's the risk

[chopper99]

So how do you judge potential in the game when it is already predetermined and bears no resemblance or relativity to attributes? Especially with young players?

How do you in real life? You rely on your scouts, who will sometimes get it wrong.

You can look at a player in FM and real life, and they may have excellent attributes for their age. They then may or may not improve as you would expect. High attributes as a youngster are no guarentee that the player will become top class.

[LARulz]

Never thought about it before, but have got to say I don't think it should exist. In the older champ manager games, players who we now know are global superstars had poor PA's, and some young players who had high ones are now not as good as once thought (Kompany, vanden borre etc)

[JimbobWWFC]

Never thought about it before, but have got to say I don't think it should exist. In the older champ manager games, players who we now know are global superstars had poor PA's, and some young players who had high ones are now not as good as once thought (Kompany, vanden borre etc)

We're going round in circles with these posts now.

What you said is true, but that happens because the researchers CAN'T guess exactly how successful these players will be

[Sir Stuart Wilson]

Not necissarily, plenty of players peak at an older age (e.g. Kevin Phillips, Luca Toni, Arshavan). And in terms of FM that would mean that they always had a high PA, just their CA moved slowely towards it.

It works the other way too. Plenty of youngsters have looked brilliant at 18 (Freddy Adu anyone?) but have gone onto be not that good. This would be the equivalent of them having a relatively high CA compared to their peers, but a fairly low PA.

So that means we have to wait every year on the new FM games to see those potentials realised and adjusted rather than let the game judge?

Put it this way you say Arshavin always had that potential, right?

Now we know this now after performances in Uefa Cup and European Championships with Zenit and Russia? Hence getting a lot of games for both country and club and performing well with the attributes he has to his game? Yes?

Well supposing when Dick Advocaat came in and went no your a good player but you won't fit into my team!

So Zenit move him on to some provincial European team or another team in Russia where it takes him a while to get used to his surroundings and team. He plays out the rest of his career at that team and does okay. Has a decent career but nothing special? Plausible? Yes?

Now would that PA have been implemented in the game just before Advocaat comes in? Did Arshavin have that potential?

What if for talking sake the season Advocaat came in on FM. You decide in your game to manage Zenit and decide yes I like the look of Arshavin I'll keep him and play him and he then goes on to be the player we know now?

That is not possible on FM at this moment in time! We are not saying every player has the potential to be amazing but that the exception who do perform in your team consistently well and even maybe excel performance wise but are limited to some definite number handed at the start of the game and lead to the over reliance by game players and the AI of these CA and PA numbers and not individual attributes etc...

[Sir Stuart Wilson]

How do you in real life? You rely on your scouts, who will sometimes get it wrong.

You can look at a player in FM and real life, and they may have excellent attributes for their age. They then may or may not improve as you would expect. High attributes as a youngster are no guarentee that the player will become top class.

Yes but you will see something either in their performances or individual parts of their game not some random generated number.

[Lyssien]

Realism-wise, the current potential ability system is not correct, imo. Yes, people have a "ceiling" on what they can do. But that "ceiling" IRL is very high and NOBODY reaches anywhere close to his potential. That's how it is in most professions anyway. Most people can be very good, as long as they are motivated and a bit lucky too.

So, while I agree that not everybody can be a Maradona, I am pretty confident that a vast majority of pros could have been average Man U first-teamers. Why they didn't make it? Because of personality and circumstances.

Gamewise, this would be equivalent of a vast majority of youngsters having a PA of 170 (or whatever that should be), but very few actually reaching it, depending on the factors mentioned above. You see, very few people are both lucky and motivated.

[JimbobWWFC]

We are not saying every player has the potential to be amazing...

Maybe that is why ther is a limit on some players' PA, to stop too many of them becoming world class, to stop every young player at Man Utd becoming world beaters, etc

[RT--]

Chopper:

The Manchester United players in my example were all exactly the same positions as well, yes. By using a real-time editor like FMRTE, you can alter the CA/PA values and see what happens to the Assistant Reports. There's no doubt that the Assistant Reports use Potential Ability 'directly' to judge players. The Assistant can tell the difference between the 100, 130 and 200PA players, despite them currently being exactly the same. How can he tell that one is going to be better than the other?

[JimbobWWFC]

Chopper:

The Manchester United players in my example were all exactly the same positions as well, yes. By using a real-time editor like FMRTE, you can alter the CA/PA values and see what happens to the Assistant Reports. There's no doubt that the Assistant Reports use Potential Ability 'directly' to judge players. The Assistant can tell the difference between the 100, 130 and 200PA players, despite them currently being exactly the same. How can he tell that one is going to be better than the other?

What if the players with higher PA are not putting as much effort into training/games, therefore showing that he can work harder thus achieving more with his abilities?

[Sir Stuart Wilson]

Maybe that is why ther is a limit on some players' PA, to stop too many of them becoming world class, to stop every young player at Man Utd becoming world beaters, etc

I'm not advocating that if I have all the best Facilities/Coaches/Techniques that I could produce world class players not for one second. But they would certainly be at an advantage to someone brought through at Brighton as such. Hence there are so many ex-United youth team players scattered around the Championship and other divisions.

All I want is a little more realism, which is obviously a lot to ask for anyway but the CA/PA system has been used for years if not right from the very start but maybe it is about time they developed it and concentrated on the fundamentals of the game as opposed to silly gimmicks every year.

[Nevermore FC]

So, while I agree that not everybody can be a Maradona, I am pretty confident that a vast majority of pros could have been average Man U first-teamers. Why they didn't make it? Because of personality and circumstances.

I agree, this is Mental attributes and Training. If you have state of the art training facilities and the best staff possible you should get anyone with good Mental attributes (and maybe some physical attributes) and make him a great player.

I think that's what Arsene does, I wonder if some of Arsenal players would be that good (and that well known) if they kept playing wherever they were at.

[RT--]

What if the players with higher PA are not putting as much effort into training/games, therefore showing that he can work harder thus achieving more with his abilities?

I think that's stretching it a bit, to be honest.

I can guarantee you that in the 'formula' that's used for calculating potential ability star-ratings in Assistant Reports, the hidden PA score is used somewhere along the lines (as well as CA, I'm also sure). I'm arguing that it shouldn't be.

If PA is needed in the game as a hidden attribute, then the AI shouldn't use it either. They should forecast potential in the same way that real-life coaches do, or the same way that FM researchers inevitably do when coming up with a PA score - by using a player's current ability and age, and some aspects of personality.

[jod123]

Disagree. The top scorer in La Liga last season was Dani Güiza - not the best in terms of CA or PA. It is possible for a player who is poor in terms of CA to do very well in a top league.

I don't see what that has got to do with the topic. Of course that is true and does happen in FM for me anyway. I used Genie Scout in previous FM's and looked at some players CA and PA and to my surprise some players that were performing really well had low values in them.

[ism-scfc]

Let me give you a low profile real life example of this:

In 2005, Stockport County signed Liam Dickinson for a nominal fee from local non-league side Woodley Sports. At the start of his spell in SK3, he was lightweight, crap, and a bit of an idiot tbh. We got him focused more on his football than his hairstyle, and he scored 21 goals for us last season, including the goal at Wembley that got us promoted. He was then sold to Derby County for a deal worth £1 Million in the summer, and has since proved his ability to play at Championship level, on loan with Blackpool.

However, this is a success story that would not happen in FM, due to the abysmal Potential Ability system

1. A player with the PA to play in the championship would not appear at such a low profile club.

2. When a player comes through the youth system, THEY DO NOT have a value which is the roof at which they can reach. Good training could turn 60CA into 130CA in a few years, but this would have been stopped by a PA of around 70 in FM

3. It annoys me when I find a good youth player, but my coach says that he has reached his full potental. What? At 18? No player reaches their full potential at 18. At that age, and for at least another decade, the player can improve.

[Scoham]

Realism-wise, the current potential ability system is not correct, imo. Yes, people have a "ceiling" on what they can do. But that "ceiling" IRL is very high and NOBODY reaches anywhere close to his potential. That's how it is in most professions anyway. Most people can be very good, as long as they are motivated and a bit lucky too.

Gamewise, this would be equivalent of a vast majority of youngsters having a PA of 170 (or whatever that should be), but very few actually reaching it, depending on the factors mentioned above. You see, very few people are both lucky and motivated.

That's true, the game could possibly work like that one day, but it could cause a lot more problems than it's worth.

It might be like that in the real world, but in game terms there's no real gain from most players having a PA 30-50 points higher than their CA.

There's also plenty of examples of very hard working and professional players getting the most out of their ability.

That is not possible on FM at this moment in time! We are not saying every player has the potential to be amazing but that the exception who do perform in your team consistently well and even maybe excel performance wise but are limited to some definite number handed at the start of the game and lead to the over reliance by game players and the AI of these CA and PA numbers and not individual attributes etc...

That's a different problem with the game. Not down to the CA/PA system. Teams should be trying to bring young players through, players should move clubs more often etc.

[Scoham]

However, this is a success story that would not happen in FM, due to the abysmal Potential Ability system

1. A player with the PA to play in the championship would not appear at such a low profile club.

2. When a player comes through the youth system, THEY DO NOT have a value which is the roof at which they can reach. Good training could turn 60CA into 130CA in a few years, but this would have been stopped by a PA of around 70 in FM

3. It annoys me when I find a good youth player, but my coach says that he has reached his full potental. What? At 18? No player reaches their full potential at 18. At that age, and for at least another decade, the player can improve.

Not true at all. It's unlikely in FM because there probably isn't a Woodley Sports researcher.

If non-league players deserves high PAs, their clubs researcher will give them one. If they don't it's simply a mistake.

As for number 3 I think that's more of an issue with the games text. Not all players peak in their late 20s either, plenty do earlier on.

[AB-forever]

I think PA should stay. But I agree with the guy who said that many players should have high PA and few should actually come anywhere near. This would (in most cases) solve the issue with low-PA players suddenly turning out to be great. They would have a high CA to begin with (and several of their teammates probably would as well but they're playing worse so people don't know).

[RT--]

Scoham:

I'd imagine there are players in the Charlton youth team on FM who have a similar CA and age, but different PA. I'm just curious as to how you go about making that decision. What makes you think one player will be better than another similarly talented player in his age group -- what sort of things would you look for?

I'm not trying to argue against PA in this instance, I'm just genuinely interested!

Edit:

*******Player naming*******

As an example, you have Callum Christie and Alex Stavrinou - both have the same CA, and are the same age (within a month or so) but one has a PA of -6 compared to the other's -4. What would you see in the -6 player that makes you think he'll be better than the -4 player, even though they're currently at the same level?

Cheers.

*******End of player naming*******

[looknohands]

If the researcher do not try to guess what those values are, then anybody can become Maradona in game.

Exactly as it should be...But! This should only occur when a player proves himself year in and year out at the highest levels...which would be possible with a flexible PA as I've mentioned previously. Again, it's easy for us to say that Drogba "had the potential all along" but there's no way to reflect this in the game world. Instead, we have to rely on annual tweaks made to the database to better shape a player's "true PA." So in the game, you just might be able to sign a player from the lowest Zimbabwean league with a PA of 90 and have him magically excel for one season in the Premier League, but the odd's of that repeating would be virtually nil as he should be thoroughly out-classed on the pitch. However, how many players have excelled at the top when coming from smaller leagues? How many of these players had to have their PA's changed the following year as we all "realized" we had incorrectly judged their true talent? If you do, for some reason, sign the absolute worst person in the game and have him flourish on your powerhouse team, shouldn't it follow perhaps that horrible player really had the potential all along to excel at the top? In real life you'd see a major overhaul to his CA and PA (which some of us are required to see in the database when updating roster/data info) but in the game, he'd forever be stuck as that "one guy who had a magical season."

[Scoham]

Scoham:

I'd imagine there are players in the Charlton youth team on FM who have a similar CA and age, but different PA. I'm just curious as to how you go about making that decision. What makes you think one player will be better than another similarly talented player in his age group -- what sort of things would you look for?

I'm not trying to argue against PA in this instance, I'm just genuinely interested!

They all have different strengths and weaknesses, some that can be improved and some that most likely won't.

Christie for example is quite small for a goalkeeper, things like that are going to limit him. Another researcher has also seen him play and suggested what he thought his PA and some attributes should be.

No one can see the future, and I don't know enough about all our u18s to be able to know exactly how good they'll be, but not many should be far off.

For 9.3.0 there's more of a gap between their CAs anyway

[Scoham]

Exactly as it should be...But! This should only occur when a player proves himself year in and year out at the highest levels...which would be possible with a flexible PA as I've mentioned previously. Again, it's easy for us to say that Drogba "had the potential all along" but there's no way to reflect this in the game world. Instead, we have to rely on annual tweaks made to the database to better shape a player's "true PA." So in the game, you just might be able to sign a player from the lowest Zimbabwean league with a PA of 90 and have him magically excel for one season in the Premier League, but the odd's of that repeating would be virtually nil as he should be thoroughly out-classed on the pitch. However, how many players have excelled at the top when coming from smaller leagues? How many of these players had to have their PA's changed the following year as we all "realized" we had incorrectly judged their true talent? If you do, for some reason, sign the absolute worst person in the game and have him flourish on your powerhouse team, shouldn't it follow perhaps that horrible player really had the potential all along to excel at the top? In real life you'd see a major overhaul to his CA and PA (which some of us are required to see in the database when updating roster/data info) but in the game, he'd forever be stuck as that "one guy who had a magical season."

For every time that happens though, there are plenty of young players progressing every season, slowly getting closer to their predicted PA. They'll start with a minus PA until eventually it'll be set.

There are always going to be the odd player like that, there's not much that can be done about that. If you start having variable PA levels for older players you will end up with players becoming better, or not as good, as researchers think they can be.

The way it is now, there are more accurate players than inaccurate ones.

[Wayne\'o]

there is one thing id like to change some how, some managers like David Moyes, take the odd player and turn them into good hard working players for his side, some players in FM have low stats for teamwork and workrate, i think as a manager having a big influence over certain players should enable them to improve these stats even if it's just for you..

[x42bn6]

I don't see what that has got to do with the topic. Of course that is true and does happen in FM for me anyway. I used Genie Scout in previous FM's and looked at some players CA and PA and to my surprise some players that were performing really well had low values in them.

You said that if a player averages 9.50 he should have a high CA/PA.

I say no: A tactic can turn a rubbish player into an excellent one. He does not need to have a high CA/PA - he doesn't even have to be that good. But he can still play well. For example, getting a rubbish player to simply score tap-ins.

[jod123]

You said that if a player averages 9.50 he should have a high CA/PA.

I say no: A tactic can turn a rubbish player into an excellent one. He does not need to have a high CA/PA - he doesn't even have to be that good. But he can still play well. For example, getting a rubbish player to simply score tap-ins.

I mean chances are they will have a high CA/PA with 9.50 average rating over the season. I have not seen any player on any of the FM's even come close to achieving that.

[x42bn6]

I mean chances are they will have a high CA/PA with 9.50 average rating over the season. I have not seen any player on any of the FM's even come close to achieving that.

Of course not - it would be difficult even if you cheated.

However, it is always possible for poor players to have excellent seasons. If so, it is difficult to see how this player has reached their full potential - when they can clearly get better!

[jod123]

Of course not - it would be difficult even if you cheated.

However, it is always possible for poor players to have excellent seasons. If so, it is difficult to see how this player has reached their full potential - when they can clearly get better!

Oh yeah, I agree that low CA players can play well. As I said above, I had players like that in previous games.

[jack_man]

Great reading this thread, Personally i think that because were not ment to see a players potential it shouldnt really matter it is at a set figure. BUt in FM the most i can work out is that the large majority of players reach somewere near their potential however in real life quite a few dont.