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"The kids are alright. At least, they better be." - What happens when a top club decides they don't need anyone from the outside world?

hasdgfas

By hasdgfas,
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hasdgfas

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2017/2018 Season Review

All Competitions:

2faab32875.png

You all should have read the final day, but I really should have been in a better position going into the final day.

Match Results:

d6e1e69e92.jpg

3 big disappointments here, with the home losses to Spurs and Stoke, plus the away loss to bottom side Norwich. Everything else was mostly as-expected.

 

With the World Cup this summer, we had a few call-ups:

c75c748471.jpg

Youth

General Loan Report

Let's look a little closer at some of the younger players we've been keeping a special eye on. I don't want to analyze everyone, that's what the big analysis at the end of last season was for.

Reiss Nelson - Breakout season for the now-18-year-old. Our most consistent wide player not named Alexis Sanchez, he's earned himself first-choice honors at the AMR position, or perhaps AML if I move Sanchez up front next season after the frustrating inconsistency of Giroud and Welbeck up front. Perhaps I can get a Sanchez tutoring session as the last thing he needs for another burst of attributes. He doesn't need that much else though, he's been great.

Alex Iwobi - Not quite as great a season as Nelson, but he still played well, including a vital hat-trick at home against PSG in the Champions League to give us a chance.

Rob Holding - Holding was fantastic at Middlesbrough in the Championship this season, leading them to automatic promotion, and even cracking their overall best eleven. He seems to be better than most of the rest of the division, but I'm not sure if there's a spot for him in my squad yet. His attributes aren't to the level of any of our other defenders, but maybe someone will come in for one of our other central defenders this summer and I can start to play him in the first team.

Vlad Dragomir - A solid performance at Cardiff City in the Championship. Nothing special, but he's probably first in line for an attacking midfield position in the first team. I'm considering starting to bleed him in next season, depending on if some of the older players decline too much or get bought off me.

Krystian Bielik - Arguably should be brought to the first team before Holding. He didn't perform as well on loan as Holding, but he did play in the Bundesliga instead of the Championship, and made 25 league appearances for the team that finished 4th in that league. He's impressed me a lot.

Jon Toral - Fairly disappointing, to be honest. His attributes show he should be better, but I think I have other, more promising midfielders. I may just try to sell him while his value is high.

Gedion Zelalem - Played quite poorly in the few appearances he did get. I'm not sure if I'm getting a ton out of him, even though it looks like I should be able to.

Ismael Bennacer - The most promising defensive-minded of the many midfielders at the club. If one of my first-teamers who fit that position are poached during the summer, I'll probably bring him up and bleed him in, as I don't think the youths from the intakes are quite up to snuff yet.

 

Some solid progress from some of the youth here. I'd like to try to fit 1-2 more of the young players into the first team, and with some of the poor performances of some first-teamers this season.

Next update will be the youth screenshot dump, for those of you who enjoy that, as well as an analysis of the 2017 Youth Intake, one year and some change after their arrival.

 

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noikeee

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Yeah Nelson's the one of those that looks like becoming legitimately a top player.

Bit of a shame that now for 2 years straight you've come only a few points short of winning the league. You're really just lacking a little edge somewhere and it would all look much better. If only you could sign players...

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3 hours ago, noikeee said:

Yeah Nelson's the one of those that looks like becoming legitimately a top player.

Bit of a shame that now for 2 years straight you've come only a few points short of winning the league. You're really just lacking a little edge somewhere and it would all look much better. If only you could sign players...

I know exactly what it is. It is a consistent striker. Everyone I have led the line with will have a few good games then go missing for a bunch. It's why I plan to start Sanchez up front for a while next season instead of out wide.

Plenty of transfer funds for a Dybala or other top striker, but alas.

I guess that's lesson 1. There will be something missing, and you can't just go and fix it like a top club normally could.

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Analysis of the 2017 Youth Intake One Year Later

Tom Laskowski(17A) - On Intake Current - A lot of solid improvement here. Even though 2 other players from this intake have passed him in terms of perceived potential, I still expect him to be a strong part of the team moving forward. Not quite yet though.

Seidu Mumuni(17B) - On Intake Current - Wow! A lot of improvement in a short time here. He's now rated as the highest potential from the coaches. He's not quite to Premier League level yet, but I may be starting to bleed him into the first team next season, see if he can take some more steps. He went out on Loan to Milwall last season and got a bunch of substitute appearances, but I think I'd like to keep a close eye on him next season.

Jordan Sutton(17C) - On Intake Current - A solid, although unexciting, improvement. Big fan of the physical attribute improvement specifically. He got a bunch of games on a couple loans this season, and I'm struggling between whether to send him out on loan again, or keep him close and have him stay at the club's training facilities to hopefully have a larger attribute improvement. He'll likely be a key part of the team in the future, but I already have a bunch of wide players, and I don't think he's good enough to displace them.

Danny Adams(17D) - On Intake Current - Huge physical improvement here. He had a very poor loan at Oldham this past season, so I think next year he'll just stay at home and take advantage of our facilities.

Ho Tuan Anh(17E) - On Intake Current - Some improvement. I have trouble evaluating goalkeepers. He seems to have some key weaknesses, in low One on Ones and Throwing. He is the best GK prospect at the club though. I expect him to claim the backup spot once Petr Cech retires.

Kobe McDonald(17F) - 2017 Current - Some improvement, but seems to be falling off the pace. I want to see more improvement from him if he's going to break into the first team at all.

Joe Page(17G) - 2017 Current - Pretty happy with his improvement. I'm a bit concerned at how far he has to go, but we'll see if we can get him tutored this upcoming season and kickstart him a bit.

Jon Holland(17H) - 2017 Current - He's had a really good year, which is a relief for me. I really need a backup DL soon. I don't think he'll be a star, but based on the improvement shown this season, I think he has a chance to be a solid backup member of the first team if that continues.

Louis Jupp(17I) - 2017 Current - A little improvement, but mostly disappointing. I don't think he's going to become good enough.

Declan Clarke(17J) - 2017 Current - Some minor improvement, but not enough to make me think I'm going to keep him around.

Joshua Smith(17K) - 2017 Current - There's a little bit going on here, but I don't think enough to make it here.

Scott Anderson(17L) - 2017 Current - He may be serviceable as a backup, but I don't expect him to ever be good enough to be a key part of the team. He is improving well though.

Drake G. Johnson(17M) - 2017 Current - All right, there's not nothing here. He seems to be growing into a central defender fairly well. It doesn't look like enough to make my team, but he seems like he could do better than I originally expected.

Ian Richardson II(17N) - 2017 Current - NEXT!

Joaquim(17O) - 2017 Current - Changed his name over the past year, and that's the most I can say for him, to be honest. Can probably be solid for a lower-league squad once his contract here runs out.

Aidan Telleus(17P) - 2017 Current - Actually may have regressed a bit this season? For some reason, I think he spent more time learning Swedish and Italian than working on his training this year. 

-----

Overall, it looks like this intake is developing well at the top. There are about 5 players who should definitely make it, plus a couple more who will likely be serviceable backups.

Youth screenshot dump coming soon!

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Full Youth Screenshots

Hector Bellerin - 2016 2017 2018
Rob Holding - 2016 2017 2018
Alex Iwobi - 2016 2017 2018
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Jeff Reine-Adelaide - 2016 2017 2018
Vlad Dragomir - 2016 2017 2018
Takuma Asano - 2016 2017 2018
Donyell Malen - 2016 2017 2018
Jordi Osei-Tutu - 2016 2017 2018
Chris Willock - 2016 2017 2018
Ainsley Maitland-Niles - 2016 2017 2018
Jon Toral - 2016 2017 2018
Krystian Bielik - 2016 2017 2018
Ismael Bennacer - 2016 2017 2018
Gedion Zelalem - 2016 2017 2018
Eddie Nketiah - 2016 2017 2018
Marcus McGuane - 2016 2017 2018
Tyrell Robinson - 2016 2017 - Free Transferred 
Marc Bola - 2016 2017 2018
Glen Kamara - 2016 2017 2018
Chuba Akpom - 2016 2017 2018
Kelechi Nwakali - 2016 2017 2018
Matt Macey - 2016 2017 2018
Yassin Fortune - 2016 2017 2018
Ben Sheaf - 2016 2017 2018
Stephy Mavididi - 2016 2017 - Free Transferred
Kaylen Hinds - 2016 2017 2018
Stefan O'Connor - 2016 2017 2018
Tafari Moore - 2016 2017 2018
Julio Pleguezuelo - 2016 2017 - Free Transferred
Dan Crowley - 2016 2017 2018
Deyan Iliev - 2016 2017 2018
Aaron Eyoma - 2016 2017 2018
Chiori Johnson - 2016 2017 - Free Transferred
Ryan Huddart - 2016 2017 2018
------
Reiss Nelson - 2016 2017 2018
Joe Willock - 2016 2017 2018
Alex Crean - 2016 2017 2018
Daniel Ballard - 2016 2017 2018
Robbie Burton - 2016 2017 2018
Josh Benson - 2016 2017 2018
Emile Smith-Rowe - 2016 2017 2018
Joao Virginia - 2016 2017 2018
Tolaji Bola - 2016 2017 2018
Hugo Keto - 2016 2017 2018
Jay Beckford - 2016 2017 2018
Dominic Thompson - 2016 2017 2018
Nathan Tormey - 2016 2017 2018
Joseph Olowu - 2016 2017 2018
Josh Dasilva - 2016 2017 2018
Nathan Tella - 2016 2017 2018
Charlie Gilmour - 2016 2017 2018
Savvas Mourgos - 2016 2017 2018
Kristopher Da Graca - 2016 2017 2018
Tobi Omole - 2016 2017 2018
Kostas Pileas - 2016 2017 2018

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2017 Youth Intake screenshots above

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Luke Rees(18A) - 2018

Samuel Richardson(18B) - 2018

Bas Douglas(18C) - 2018

Adam Miles(18D) - 2018

Jonathan Gill(18E) - 2018

Bradley Perry(18F) - 2018

Onyekachi Eze(18G) - 2018

Graham Armstrong(18H) - 2018

Alfredo Ortiz(18I) - 2018

Ibrahima Fall(18J) - 2018

Karl Collier(18K) - 2018

Hassan Onovo(18L) - 2018 (Check out his hair! It's actually too big!)

Neil Merritt(18M) - 2018

Paul Taylor(18N) - 2018

Barney Keane(18O) - 2018

Ian Yates(18P) - 2018

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32 minutes ago, Willigenburg said:

I love how much their faces changed in a year :lol: Changed noses.. Changed cheeks.. Jesus - Young Arsenal players really wants to be beautiful

That was also the first thing I noticed :). Really, really weird.

In other news, I was not expecting to see this:

904b9bcd6d.jpg

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1 hour ago, hasdgfas said:

Drake G. Johnson(17M) - 2017 Current - All right, there's not nothing here. He seems to be growing into a central defender fairly well. It doesn't look like enough to make my team, but he seems like he could do better than I originally expected.

Dang, get that tackling up and the lad could have a decent league bumming around League One, maybe even the Championship.

Be grand in the Faroes.....

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4 minutes ago, BoxToBox said:

Dang, get that tackling up and the lad could have a decent league bumming around League One, maybe even the Championship.

Be grand in the Faroes.....

That is his individual focus, and it's paying off fairly well so far, with a 3-point increase in the past year.

In other news, some departures already this season:

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While Ozil was clearly one of the best players at the club, he also has been one of the consistently worst performers. I was regularly subbing him out first in matches because he just wasn't performing up to expectations. So when PSG came in with a ludicriously high bid, I had to take it. Lucas is also gone. I wasn't getting him as much game time as he wanted, plus he's not as ambitious as I wanted. In the end of season team meeting, he was the only player who thought the title was too ambitious for next season, and I want players who want the title. I think it's time to bring up one of the young attacking midfielders. The question is...which one? I'm leaning towards Dragomir, but possibly it's just time for Seidu Mumuni(17B).

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Weird! I've actually managed Arsenal once, in FM14, and one of the first things I done was sell Ozil as despite his attributes he was just terrible, was constantly being outplayed by Ravel Morrison. :lol:

Also, coincidentally, also one of the first things I done was find a consistent goal scorer(as seems to be what you're missing), picking up Chicharito who I'd had on loan at my last club.

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wBCwgFe.png

Delightful!

While possibly true(and Giroud's scoring inconsistency is one of the big reasons why we haven't quite gotten over the top to the title yet), I don't have enough players who can play there to sell him, although possible fees up to 10M Pounds would likely have been enough for me to sell if this weren't a youth save.

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World Cupdate 2018

Some real surprises in the group stages. And somewhat in qualification too. Let's start there.

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Notice anything odd about Group B of Asian Qualifying? I sure did. Back to the World Cup

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Group A: A bit surprising to see Ukraine advance ahead of Russia

Group B: Brazil out in the Group Stages! For once, Ivory Coast actually lived up to high expectations.

Group C: Dutch Disaster! Even losing to Uzbekistan. Not at all what they wanted.

Group D: About as expected.

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Group E: After a disaster of an opening match, the Americans shock Argentina to advance in first place in the group.

Group F: The real surprise here was Romania's 6 points. I wish they'd have advanced.

Group G: As expected, Qatar the whipping boys.

Group H: HAHAHAHAHAHA Mexico. This makes me incredibly happy.

Then nothing too shocking in the knockout rounds:

be86311bd6.jpg

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8 hours ago, BoxToBox said:

Definitely the best pick, but I'd reckon Napoli would be the only team I'd expect to be any hassle for an Arsenal side.

Well, it was seeded v unseeded. We were seeded, and the left side is the unseeded options we had. So it is all relative.  With some of our away issues, I won't take anything for granted.

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Nasty! That could be brutal to the season.

5 hours ago, hasdgfas said:

Well, it was seeded v unseeded. We were seeded, and the left side is the unseeded options we had. So it is all relative.  With some of our away issues, I won't take anything for granted.

I have no idea what I was thinking....

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I don't want to look at it from a pessimistic point of view, because that's a quality result, but I'd be a bit concerned looking at that lineup vs Bayern and noting the absence of emerging youth players other than Dragomir...

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4 hours ago, noikeee said:

I don't want to look at it from a pessimistic point of view, because that's a quality result, but I'd be a bit concerned looking at that lineup vs Bayern and noting the absence of emerging youth players other than Dragomir...

That's one of my concerns. I think I'm being a bit too conservative with bringing the young players into the first team. This season is probably going to be my last "conservative" season, and next year I'm planning to get a bit more aggressive with the young players. There are several who are right on the edge of being good enough for the Premier League, and I think I need to just throw more of them into the fire.

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Mini Update

I'll be posting my January update in about a month of game-time, but some things have happened and I don't want them to be lost.

first:

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Look who's back. Back again.

 

Also, Brexit!

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I'll be honest, I was hoping for a harder Brexit with the Youth Only stipulation I'm doing, but alas.

I just posted that Bayern result above, here's the return leg:

c1352a4d43.jpg

 

A couple players have received their first senior international caps!

Reiss Nelson was guaranteed a run-out shortly based on his performances, and he got it, along with a debut goal!

Vlad Dragomir has gotten 2 senior caps as well after claiming my starting AMC position. Of note: He already has more assists this season than Ozil had all of last season. He's also now described as a Wonderkid.

 

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3 minutes ago, ManUtd1 said:

It will be interesting to see how that Brexit plays out, long term. In the short term, clearly it isn't as favorable as it could have been. But, this is a good development for you.

agreed. It'll at least slow down the mid-table clubs from picking up the mid-tier internationals from the EU that a lot of them seem to really be built on. The top, top internationals that the top-tier clubs pick up shouldn't be affected as much, but those clubs still need squad depth.

I may do a bit of data collection for my January Update that I can look back on in 5-10 seasons(assuming I get that far) to see how the makeup of the squads change in terms of nationality.

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January 2019 Mini-Update

League Table:

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A reasonable first-half of the season spot. A couple very poor results, but overall, I'm happy with 3rd right now.

Champions League Group:

cead3cabca.jpg

After the shock two wins over Bayern, we win the group, even though we only got a point against Lyon. Will that help our draw for the knockout rounds?

Champions League First Knockout Round Draw:

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Quite a bit, actually. Not too many really scary teams in the unseeded half of the draw, especially since we couldn't draw Bayern. Zenit won't be easy, but is among the weaker draws.

Match Results:

d884d73b09.jpg

The away match to Stoke to open the season really hurts, especially since they're now bottom of the League. I'm also upset about the loss to Spurs at home. We could have opened up a lead on them, but instead we fall behind, and then even further behind with a poor draw at disappointing Liverpool.

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Youth Stuff

General Loan Report

A couple things to note here:

A) The top performing players are all players that look like they're going to make it. Until Da Graca, at least. Specifically, Bielik, Holding, and Bennacer are outstanding right now.

2) For the most part, the players I've expected to do all right have done all right. Reine-Adelaide, Chris Willock, and Jordan Sutton(17C) are all likely going to start breaking into the first team next season after I get rid of a couple of the older players I'm getting sick of(any guesses?)

C) A few players have only gotten a couple appearances, and will probably be recalled because I'd rather keep a close eye on them and have them play with my reserves than loan reserves. Specifically Virginia and Seidu Mumuni(17B). I wanted more game time from them to take their next steps.

4) These are the players who I expect to break into the first team in the next season or two, depending on how aggressive I get with sales. 

Krystian Bielik

Jordan Sutton(17C)

Chris Willock

Jeff Reine-Adelaide

Seidu Mumuni(17B)

And, while not a "first teamer", I do expect one of these goalkeepers to be the backup shortly, as I don't think I'll be keeping Cech much past this season, with his contract almost up, and him complaining about not getting enough games. And it really could be either one. I think Ho Tuan Anh(17E) has the advantage, due to being a bit younger, but if he stagnates, Virginia can take his place.

There are a few players in the "second tier" of youth I have right now who, with some great development, might make it to the first team ahead of schedule. I'll point them out at the end of the season.

 

Now, you may have noticed from previous updates that Vlad Dragomir is now a member of the first team. That's correct. He's my first choice AMC if he's on form. He's not on form right now, but he's had his patches where he was bossing the midfield. Generally, if he's not starting, he's on the bench.

-----

Also, what is there to say about Alexis Sanchez? Clearly a top player if you watch the Premier League, he's also great in FM. He decided to mark his return from injury with 7 goals and 3 assists in 9 appearances.

I mentioned just a post ago that I might do some data collection on countries for Brexit analysis later. That will come tomorrow. I just wanted to get this update out before bed.

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Pre-Brexit Premier League Nationality Analysis

As promised, I grabbed some nationality numbers so that I can compare them now, pre-Brexit, to a few seasons down the line when Brexit's in full swing in order to see what sort of effect it has had on the game world. While I didn't want to check for each specific nationality, I decided to split up into a few different categories.

  • England (to see how many players are from the actual country of the Premier League)
  • Other nations of Great Britain (to track the players unaffected by Brexit)
  • Ireland (part of the EU, but I wanted to track them separately)
  • EU Nations (besides Ireland, but the obvious group affected by Brexit)
  • Other (those already affected by having to get work permits)

I also separately tracked the number of non-British players who are considered "home-grown" by the game, just to see if there's any change in those in the future.

The numbers are as follows:

  • England - 116
  • Other GB nations - 22
  • Ireland - 17
  • EU Nations - 170
  • Other - 143
  • Home Grown non-GB players: 46

A few interesting things to note here.

  • Even with the need for work permits, there are currently more non-EU players than English players in the Premier League. 
  • EU players are the most prominent in the Premier League, and by a solid margin.
  • Ireland has almost as many players as the "smaller" British nations combined
  • There are a decent number of non-British players considered home-grown. Is that due to lax work permit rules for EU players? Young players with dual nationalities? I didn't check, but it'll be interesting to compare to results in the future.

My big takeaway here is that the Premier League has been strongly affected by the EU. I think there will have to be a significant bump up in English and other British players in order to make up for the harsher EU rules. I don't think it'll be a huge downswing in EU players right away, because players already here don't have to get work permits, and we can see the large number of players who already needed work permits who are playing here.

My predictions are that we likely won't see a big affect in the next 5 years, but past that, I think we'll start to see a slow decline in EU players and a slow uptick in British players. It'll be interesting.

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The extra difficulty in bringing EU players for the other sides, will help you. I think that's a positive development indeed.

I'm not convinced Dragomir is a future Champions-League-winning star for you, but Nelson could very well be. Exciting player you've got for the next decade.

Looking good on the Champions League this season too.

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ea15adcd17.png

All to play for after the first leg.

Honestly, a disappointing result. I felt like we were dominant, but couldn't turn that dominance into goals. Their goal was a header off a free kick, and that felt like the only chance they had the entire match.

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3a8afb2699.png

Blugh. This was significantly closer than the final score indicates. And as you can see, shots were fairly even between us. The problem was our red card. It was in the highlight while him coming off was pending too, which is the most frustrating bit.

But man, if we had taken more of our chances in the first match, or even taken a chance in this match instead of sending everything right at the keeper, I might not have had to send everyone forward while down a man.

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And so, it all comes down to this. One match for Premier League glory.

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It took a shock win from relegated West Brom to give me this opportunity, let's not waste it. If we can get revenge for our poor performance at home just before Christmas, we can steal the title from them on their ground. One more match.

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f191479043.png

This never really felt close. They shredded the defense. I thought when we pulled it back to 3-2 that if we made it to halftime we could be ok with a little bit of a tactics reshuffle, then Thiago just scores direct from a free kick and the squad visibly deflates and started playing with less urgency.

So close 3 seasons in a row, but not quite getting there due to some inconsistency. I'll be making a few changes this summer to make the team a bit younger, try to freshen up the attitude a bit.

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Season Review 2018-2019

All Competitions:

5bc19eab53.png

Match Results:

2bbccab7f2.jpg

We keep getting close, we just need a couple tweaks to add some consistency.

Transfers Out(Sales)

Got rid of a few players who weren't quite doing it for me. Paulista went to China in February, because I needed to make some room in my defense. Koscielny and Mertesacker are getting old, but I have several spots in the defense I can fill over the next few seasons with some young players

Transfers Out(Free)

A bunch of players who weren't doing anything.

Youth

General Loan Report

A bunch of generally solid loans from the young players this season. Here are a few standout players/performances I want to point out:

Seidu Mumuni(17B) - Wow, what a great second half of the season from him. He got only one or 2 sub appearances in the first half of the season, but he was a key part of the second half of Hull's Premier League Season, with them ending in 8th place. I anticipate bringing him into the first team next season, he seems good enough, and the coaches even think he has a lot of room to grow, which is very exciting.

Krystian Bielik - He went to Turkey for the season and performed very well, with Trabzonspor ending in third place. I haven't seen a ton of attribute improvement from him, but he is a solid performer anyway. He's one of the players on my short list for bringing into the first-team defense. 

Tom Laskowski(17A) - Some solid performances at Championship club Brighton. The coaches say he has a ton of room to grow, so he's competing with Bielik for the spot that's definitely open. I'm actually leaning strongly towards Laskowski, since he already has better defensive attributes.

Jordan Sutton(17C) - Solid performances at Championship side Fulham. He looks very explosive. I'm strongly considering bringing him into the first team next season and changing the tactics a bit to allow him and Reiss Nelson to shine.

Speaking of Reiss Nelson, let's look at the young players in the first team.

Reiss Nelson - He's stagnated a bit this season. With some inconsistent performances, he hasn't improved as much this season as previous seasons. He's still very, very good, and is performing admirably, but I might have pushed him too hard this season.

Alex Iwobi - A very solid backup. Not a consistently great performer, but fills in when necessary.

Vlad Dragomir - His first season in the first team, and he played quite well! He was inconsistent and had some runs of poor form, but he's not playing poorly. The coaches think he still has some room to grow, and I'd like to see that.

 

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Now, onto next season's plans. There are 3 players in the first team that I intend to sell over the summer. That opens up some spaces for young players, in addition to the 1 I already have thanks to the sale of Gabriel. I have some tactical tweaks in mind as well, to hopefully play to the strengths of my best players.

However, first, coming shortly, a look at the 2018 intake a year later, in addition to the screenshot dump.

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