Your tactic and going on holiday

[bamb00zle]

Was struggling to get results with a tactic so decided to go on holiday for a month as an experiment and selected to keep the same tactic etc. 

Won 7 of the last 8 , 6 clean sheets. Most of the opponents were a bit worse than us but we did get walloped 7-1 by Real with that tactic. 

Can anyone shed any light on why this is happening? When I looked back at the stats on the matches it was a team transformed. Less shots against and we're creating a whole ton. It's weird.

Now that this has happened I don't feel it's good about the holiday saving my ass as i'd run out of ideas and potentially saving my job. Do you think I should resign!? 

[HUNT3R]

Your assistant is doing a better job, simply put. It's your tactic, but he'll still make role changes and duty changes etc as he sees fit and he'll still make in-match decisions.

[Svenc]

Plus, random Chance. Looking at sequences of like OMG 7 wins really doesn't mean overly much. (In Football not, either way).  

https://statsbomb.com/2018/10/arsenal-arent-this-good-nor-are-dortmund-heres-why/

 

That said, it's perfectly possible for an assistant to perform better than yourself, longer term. (Not because they're inhumanly super smart though.) Personally I wish this part of the game were expanded upon to tactical assistant Managers proper (which would Need improved AI accross the board, so would Benefit ALL FM players), because, as you can likely agree, just holidaying without any specific input probably doesn't feel very satisfying.

[herne79]

1 hour ago, HUNT3R said:

Your assistant is doing a better job, simply put. It's your tactic, but he'll still make role changes and duty changes etc as he sees fit and he'll still make in-match decisions.

Going on holiday doesn't use the full ME either does it?

[bamb00zle]

@HUNT3RThis is why it's frustrating. I'm Sevilla and we're expected to qualify for UCL but we don't have a top 4 squad (not far off though) but no money to spend. Last season I came 5th (miles off the UCL in terms of points and reached the Europa Semis to keep me in a job. 

This year we were mid table after 10 games, the legends coming out to take a swipe at me etc. I just couldn't see how we were ever going to get near the target and was resigned to the sack. I'm playing the long game, trying to develop youngsters who will eventually get me to the Champions League but the board have no time for this. What else can I do when we have a high wage bill but only qualify for the Europa League every year, meaning there's less income to establish ourselves. Seems that I'm just waiting for Valencia's aging stars to bugger off and then we can take their place! Can't see the light at the end of the tunnel.

What its p roved then is my tactic is good but I'm not making the right changes, I just plug things here and there and hope for the best. I'm quite good at deciding what game we'll play but I'm obviously next to useless changing things up. Confidence on the floor.

I feel I should resign as the assistant has got me out of a hole but i'm loathe to do that as I've signed some amazing young players who have a clear path to the 1st team. Lots of time invested into that! Grrr

[Federico]

53 minuti fa, herne79 ha scritto:

Going on holiday doesn't use the full ME either does it?

?

What do you mean?

[Svenc]

1 hour ago, herne79 said:

Going on holiday doesn't use the full ME either does it?

It does. Which is one of the reasons the Barca assistant if you applied to Camp Nou and holidayed in About FM 16/17 broke the league, consistently Breaking the all-time scoring records every single time by a landslide with 150+/160+ goals (dare I bring up the term The Three Fishermen™).  

 

(By Default, all of the Matches in Competitions you are competing in are always simulated in full match Detail.  ).


 

57 minutes ago, bamb00zle said:

@HUNT3RThis is why it's frustrating. I'm Sevilla and we're expected to qualify for UCL but we don't have a top 4 squad (not far off though) but no money to spend. Last season I came 5th (miles off the UCL in terms of points and reached the Europa Semis to keep me in a job. 

This year we were mid table after 10 games, the legends coming out to take a swipe at me etc. I just couldn't see how we were ever going to get near the target and was resigned to the sack. 

Luckily, Valencia stuck with their Manager in a similar position (who come the end of a Season was a celebrated hero). https://betweentheposts.net/impressive-numbers-bleak-mid-table-position-curious-case-laliga-season/ Now "scoring slumps" are by no means as common on FM as in real Football. NOr are they ever as severe. If you forwards keep on having actually decent chances on this game (which the game lacks really useful data for), they'll eventually score some. But.... "bad luck" Plays some part. That is until you get to the Point that the AI just cannot compete anymore…. which is where luck plays no role whatsoever anymore, except for in isolated Matches. E.g. your Forwards Keep up popping in space every week, and the game's AI is not able to react to that any. Thus there is also a slight possibility  that you went on Holiday at rock Bottom of "luck" and your AI assistant reaped some of the rewards. 
 

[bamb00zle]

21 minutes ago, Svenc said:

 

Luckily, Valencia stuck with their Manager in a similar position (who come the end of a Season was a celebrated hero). https://betweentheposts.net/impressive-numbers-bleak-mid-table-position-curious-case-laliga-season/ Now "scoring slumps" are by no means as common on FM as in real Football. NOr are they ever as severe. If you forwards keep on having actually decent chances on this game (which the game lacks really useful data for), they'll eventually score some. But.... "bad luck" Plays some part. That is until you get to the Point that the AI just cannot compete anymore…. So there is a slight possibility that you went on Holiday at rock Bottom of "luck" and your assistant reaped some of the rewards.
 

 

Haha, very similar to me except we are free scoring but porous at the back I play a 4411 and we are susceptible to 4231s & players getting in behind. If we dont take our countless chances, we will get beat, particularly away where we are completely unable to keep clean sheets. And we lose to sides who should not be anywhere close to us on paper. i've tried 4141 but while it's much better defensively, we don't create any chances.

Maybe I'll just keep my job and give the assistant whatever he wants as a thank you present

[Svenc]

14 minutes ago, bamb00zle said:

Maybe I'll just keep my job and give the assistant whatever he wants as a thank you present

Purchase him the "dodgy Lasagna" as a birthday present. Well, the 1-7 thrashing against Real may suggest that he didn't suddenly turn the side into a world beating one. You suggested the fixture list already, gifting him a run of games with opponents you classed as somewhat inferior, to begin with. The Thing is this: For as Long as the game simulates Matches for 90 minutes, and but a couple seconds eventually decide the winner, the margins between a Winning and a losing run in-game can be quite tight indeed.

One of the edges your ass man may have had is that he (the AI in General) reacts to scorelines, and oft logically/decently. Upon taking the lead, he may have taken added measures to protect it, and vice versa. Maybe he was also "fortunate" enough to take the lead in all of those Matches to begin with, which usually is a massive Advantage. IF he would perform better than you, you would only see in the longer term. A run of but a couple of Matches is too short for that. 

[bamb00zle]

7 minutes ago, Svenc said:

Well, the 1-7 thrashing against Real may suggest that he didn't suddenly turn the side into a world beating one. You suggested the fixture list already, gifting him a run of games with opponents you classed as somewhat inferior, to begin with. The Thing is this: For as Long as the game simulates Matches for 90 minutes, and but a couple seconds eventually decide the winner, the margins between a Winning and a losing run in-game can be quite tight indeed.

One of the edges your ass man may have had is that he (the AI in General) reacts to scorelines, and oft logically/decently. Upon taking the lead, he may have taken added measures to protect it, and vice versa. Maybe he was also "fortunate" enough to take the lead in all of those Matches to begin with, which usually is a massive Advantage. IF he would perform better than you, you would only see in the longer term. A run of but a couple of Matches is too short for that. 

Do you think the AI then can immediately spot stuff that wouldn't occur to us human types? I don't see the AI change formation much in game but probably just role changes, this is where i'm crap. If we get attacked heavily down a flank, I'll try and shut it down, if it's balls over the top, i'll move the line back a notch. Never seems to make much difference and we do have quality players, there's only about 5 or 6 La Liga sides in my game I'd class a remotely acceptable for us to lose to. He probably just thinks hmmm i'll just change him from BTB to BWM or something funky that wouldn't occur to me.

[Svenc]

11 minutes ago, bamb00zle said:

Do you think the AI then can immediately spot stuff that wouldn't occur to us human types?

It's the vice versa, which is why human Players in generally far outperform the AI (and what it would to with the same Clubs/Players). I personally have stopped following much of the tactical community for instance, as most discussions on there absolutely run rings around the AI, and I prefer the game to somewhat still resemble Football.  

Yeah, the AI doesn't necessarily switch formations, however, even a Duty/role changes all alone can Change Things significantly. A full back on attack Always bombing Forward leaves a flank exposed that one on defend never will. The AI is Pretty "generic" in here actually. If it would do such, it wouldn't do this because it's "spotted" that it's exposed on the flank. It does so because it goes more "cautious". 

Maybe you can save at this Point and replay the Season in two ways from here on. 1) The AI assistant finishes the Season. 2) You carry on yourself. If you really wanted to find out, you'd probably needed to repeat the process a couple of times, to iron out all the "bad/good luck" along the way (in Terms of results, but also injuries to possibly key Players, etc.).

That said, your assessment of your side sounds too positive, even not knowing the players. Maybe Barca/Real should find it incceptable to lose to but a handful of sides in the league. The Teams a Tier below them generally face far more competitive and closely fought Matches, as they're just not as unbalanced from the rest due to the absurd edges in TV / CL money. But also remember that Football is also a game where the much better side frequently doesn't win as often as it should due to ist Ultra low scoring nature…. which is generally represented in-game. On my first FM ever, after a string of successful Seasons I actually had managed to "slump" to mid-table with Bayern Munich early/mid Season, LvG style, and personally, I actually enjoyed the added challenge /stress of that and miss those times.  

[Svenc]

5 hours ago, bamb00zle said:

Was struggling to get results with a tactic so decided to go on holiday for a month as an experiment and selected to keep the same tactic etc. 

Won 7 of the last 8 , 6 clean sheets. Most of the opponents were a bit worse than us but we did get walloped 7-1 by Real with that tactic. 

Can anyone shed any light on why this is happening? When I looked back at the stats on the matches it was a team transformed. Less shots against and we're creating a whole ton. It's weird.

As an ado: This will happen by Default as soon as an AI man picks a tactics focused on defending / making it harder to score/ keeping the space tight in the final third. A big time shot Domination in real Football just as well is more often than not simply indicative of opposite tactical approaches. You've brought up before that the assistant faced opponents who were ranked lower. The AI on this game likes to Play defensive Football anyway, but if it's considered an "Underdog" in a match, it will do so ASAP.  Naturally, quantity doesn't mean Quality.  


https://www.theringer.com/soccer/2018/6/27/17511596/2018-world-cup-germany-south-korea-mexico-sweden-elimination

You can try this yourself, but few like this guy back then (<- link inside ) ever do (but they should, and just to get a "feel" of what's really a better Chance converted more consistently in-game, and which isn't). From experience, the amount of shots conceded from purely set pieces (very tight spaces, often times headers under pressure) increases a fistful alone if you'd ever Play defensive Football on this.

 

[herne79]

2 hours ago, Federico said:

?

What do you mean?

 

1 hour ago, Svenc said:

It does.

To clarify what I'm alluding to is there is quite a difference between sitting down to play a match yourself and spending 2 seconds holidaying through a match.  Everything is outside of your control and all the changes you may have made during the course which would influence the outcome won't be taken into account.

[Svenc]

53 minutes ago, herne79 said:

 

To clarify what I'm alluding to is there is quite a difference between sitting down to play a match yourself and spending 2 seconds holidaying through a match.  Everything is outside of your control and all the changes you may have made during the course which would influence the outcome won't be taken into account.

Yeah, it's the AI assistant making these in-match decisions, which is what the OP is About: "May it be that the AI is doing better than me"? Answer: Could be, won't Show after merely 8 Matches though. The simulation is still going through "full ME" as opposed to the "quick sim" (used for all competitions set to Low detail and not actually simulating matches "kick by kick") tho. Clicking on Holiday prior to a match basically goes through all the match day processes as usual, just with the AI assistant sitting in the "dugout", as opposed to you.

Which is why the aforementioned Barcelona assistant managed to exploit said ME (by Chance, or rather researched Attributes and favored formations, mind). In the game's quick sim ME, Barcelona would have never consistently scored this many all-time record Breaking goals ever, as it relied on exploiting  (defensive) flaws in the second by second full ME Simulation.  (-> The Three Fishermen™).

[MrPompey]

as an example take Ole at Man Utd for the first 10 or so games then look at the results after. Even irl you think you see a pattern but then something changes

[Svenc]

10 hours ago, MrPompey said:

as an example take Ole at Man Utd for the first 10 or so games then look at the results after. Even irl you think you see a pattern but then something changes

The luck (on top of the Performance) runs dry.

https://statsbomb.com/2019/02/solskjaers-manchester-united-the-real-deal-or-just-a-good-run/
https://statsbomb.com/2019/03/two-things-can-be-true-manchester-united-are-better-under-ole-gunnar-solskjaer-and-luckier/

https://statsbomb.com/2019/05/manchester-united-season-review-at-the-wheel/

With football Matches typically being rather tight contests, every team can win Matches in a row -- it's happened to Mainz in the Bundesliga, even a struggling Bremen not that long ago. Fewer can sustain that though. Whilst I personally don't think the game is quite as "random" as Football can be -- watch Dortmund 2014/2015s first half of season Matches (or even just highlihghts) back to back and then tell me this is the "worst" side in the league (which is where they stood in the table come January) -- I think this still should be mandatory reading, for the OP likewise. No less as it also brings up the influence of fixture lists he touches on About in the Opening post.

 

[russell9]

On 07/07/2019 at 23:30, HUNT3R said:

Your assistant is doing a better job, simply put. It's your tactic, but he'll still make role changes and duty changes etc as he sees fit and he'll still make in-match decisions.

I remember reading somewhere that the assistant will not make any role or duty changes but only substitutions if the holiday option "Use current match tactics" is selected.


 

[Federico]

That's not true. The assistant will keep using your tactics/plans making changes to roles and duties accordingly.

[MrPompey]

5 hours ago, Federico said:

That's not true. The assistant will keep using your tactics/plans making changes to roles and duties accordingly.

only if you set this up to happen

[MrPompey]

14 hours ago, Svenc said:

The luck (on top of the Performance) runs dry.

https://statsbomb.com/2019/02/solskjaers-manchester-united-the-real-deal-or-just-a-good-run/
https://statsbomb.com/2019/03/two-things-can-be-true-manchester-united-are-better-under-ole-gunnar-solskjaer-and-luckier/

https://statsbomb.com/2019/05/manchester-united-season-review-at-the-wheel/

With football Matches typically being rather tight contests, every team can win Matches in a row -- it's happened to Mainz in the Bundesliga, even a struggling Bremen not that long ago. Fewer can sustain that though. Whilst I personally don't think the game is quite as "random" as Football can be -- watch Dortmund 2014/2015s first half of season Matches (or even just highlihghts) back to back and then tell me this is the "worst" side in the league (which is where they stood in the table come January) -- I think this still should be mandatory reading, for the OP likewise. No less as it also brings up the influence of fixture lists he touches on About in the Opening post.

 

Its funny in that each FM version I often see a post "complaining" that FM is unrealistic quoting an impossible situation such as Leicester winning the premiership, Champions League semi final sides over turning a near impossible score line against a top, top side to reach the final yet real life football keeps throwing up these examples also

I wonder if there has been an FM19 news item about a manager taking over from a sacked manager going on a good run and getting a news item message "xxxxxx at the wheel"

 

[Federico]

3 ore fa, MrPompey ha scritto:

only if you set this up to happen

Yes of course, correct clarification