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fivethirtyeight's world cup predictions


LokedOut420

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some people may be aware of fivethirtyeight for their election prediction models, but nate silver and his team have developed an algorithm for predicting the world cup

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

if you want to know more about the model and how the ratings and results are calculated

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-brazils-world-cup-to-lose/

I think it's pretty accurate for the most part, but giving brazil a 45% chance seems a bit high

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Brazil is very overrated because of reputation (both historical and current) and home advantage.

Since 1982, out of the big teams that hosted the World Cup, only France won it.

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Brazil is very overrated because of reputation (both historical and current) and home advantage.

Since 1982, out of the big teams that hosted the World Cup, only France won it.

Since 1994, I'd say all the hosts have outperformed their abilities in terms of where they would have expected to finish if they weren't at home.

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Since 1994, I'd say all the hosts have outperformed their abilities in terms of where they would have expected to finish if they weren't at home.

Only France won though.

Brazil 2014 look a lot like Germany 2006, a promising potentially interesting team but a bit raw for a World Cup win.

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Interesting so based on it's predictions:

It has Brazil/Mexico + Spain/Chile+Colombia/Ivory Coast+Uruguay/England!+France/Ecuador+ Argentina/Bosnia+Belgium/Russia

The England and Ecuador one a surprise.

Croatia for Mexico and Swiss for Ecuador then that's what I have, so if the above ones all were to go through I wouldn't batter an eye lid.

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