LokedOut420 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 some people may be aware of fivethirtyeight for their election prediction models, but nate silver and his team have developed an algorithm for predicting the world cup http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/ if you want to know more about the model and how the ratings and results are calculated http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-brazils-world-cup-to-lose/ I think it's pretty accurate for the most part, but giving brazil a 45% chance seems a bit high Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PMLF Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Brazil is very overrated because of reputation (both historical and current) and home advantage. Since 1982, out of the big teams that hosted the World Cup, only France won it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluedave Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 I'll take those odds for us. Poor Australia though Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Jeroen Thijssen Posted June 9, 2014 SI Staff Share Posted June 9, 2014 I'd be shocked if Chile instead of Holland, England instead of Italy... Japan 4th, and especially Ecuador qualify. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikos Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Brazil is very overrated because of reputation (both historical and current) and home advantage.Since 1982, out of the big teams that hosted the World Cup, only France won it. Since 1994, I'd say all the hosts have outperformed their abilities in terms of where they would have expected to finish if they weren't at home. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PMLF Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Since 1994, I'd say all the hosts have outperformed their abilities in terms of where they would have expected to finish if they weren't at home. Only France won though. Brazil 2014 look a lot like Germany 2006, a promising potentially interesting team but a bit raw for a World Cup win. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Hall Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 I'll take those odds for us. Poor Australia though Better than I expected tbf. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Hall Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 If I remember statistics right and I may not we have a 30% chance of obtaining at least a point. I'll take that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lermon Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Interesting so based on it's predictions: It has Brazil/Mexico + Spain/Chile+Colombia/Ivory Coast+Uruguay/England!+France/Ecuador+ Argentina/Bosnia+Belgium/Russia The England and Ecuador one a surprise. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
soccer.joel Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I'd be shocked if Chile instead of Holland I wouldn't be Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pearcey_90 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Interesting so based on it's predictions:It has Brazil/Mexico + Spain/Chile+Colombia/Ivory Coast+Uruguay/England!+France/Ecuador+ Argentina/Bosnia+Belgium/Russia The England and Ecuador one a surprise. Croatia for Mexico and Swiss for Ecuador then that's what I have, so if the above ones all were to go through I wouldn't batter an eye lid. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
georginho_juventusygr Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I take it as a pinch of salt. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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