Has anyone managed to actually win a penalty shootout on FM24?

[PAFC_Dugout]

Short rant post. Just had my 14th or 15th penalty shootout loss on FM24. Never managed to win one. Multiple different saves. Champions league finals, semis, FA Cup finals. I lose them all. 

[warlock]

Couldn't give you specifics, but I'm pretty sure I've won more than I've lost.

[XaW]

After almost 10 seasons in my current save here is my stats.

2024/25
Lost to Accrington in the FA Trophy 3rd round - 0/1

2025/26
Won over Weston-Super-Mare in the FA Trophy 4th round - 1/2
Won over Wealdstone in the FA Trophy 5th round - 2/3

2028/29
Won over Wolves u21 in the EFL Trophy group stage - 3/4
Lost to Doncaster in the EFL Trophy 2nd round - 3/5

2029/30
Won over Fleetwood in the EFL Trophy group stage - 4/6
Won over Port Vale in the EFL Trophy group stage - 5/7

2031/32
Won over Sunderland in the Carabao Cup 1st round - 6/8

And those are all the penalty shootouts I've played in so far in this save. I've won 6 out of 8, so 75% win rate.

Perhaps, and this is key, your penalty takes have low pressure attributes, or low big match attributes. I'm suggesting this, since you specifically talk about finals and other big matches. These attributes, as well as consistency is very important if you want players to show up in the big matches. If you have spineless weaklings who crumble under pressure then I can't say I'm surprised.

Also, we human are extremely poor at understanding probability and the gamblers fallacy comes into play. If you've flipped a coin 10 times and it's been heads every time, what is the probability of it being heads the next time you flip? The probability of getting heads on any single coin flip is always ~50%. Each flip of a fair coin is independent of the previous flips, so the fact that you've gotten heads 10 times in a row doesn't change the probability of getting heads on the next flip. It's still ~50%, regardless of the past outcomes. 

[Poison]

My trick is a simple one: Always put the best taker third, not first. If you get past the first two you steamroll them, if not he fixes things and changes momentum. I have very little failure due to this trick.

[PAFC_Dugout]

15 hours ago, Poison said:

My trick is a simple one: Always put the best taker third, not first. If you get past the first two you steamroll them, if not he fixes things and changes momentum. I have very little failure due to this trick.

Took this advice into the community shield, finally won my first shootout. Thanks man!

[MichaelNevo]

15 hours ago, Poison said:

My trick is a simple one: Always put the best taker third, not first. If you get past the first two you steamroll them, if not he fixes things and changes momentum. I have very little failure due to this trick.

Despite penalty shootouts being decided mostly by luck, there's always something that we do have control of. I like your way of thinking!  

[NineCloudNine]

2 minutes ago, MichaelNevo said:

Despite penalty shootouts being decided mostly by luck, there's always something that we do have control of. I like your way of thinking!  

It’s not luck. Penalty taking is a skill that can be practiced like any other. Dealing with the pressure is also not luck and there are plenty of techniques for improving how you manage it. The myth that it’s a lottery is deeply ingrained in English football, but it’s not true.

[MichaelNevo]

3 hours ago, NineCloudNine said:

It’s not luck. Penalty taking is a skill that can be practiced like any other. Dealing with the pressure is also not luck and there are plenty of techniques for improving how you manage it. The myth that it’s a lottery is deeply ingrained in English football, but it’s not true.

I said "mostly luck", not "entirely luck".

"there's always something that we do have control of" was my way of saying the things that you mentioned.

The luck percentage would move up and down based on a huge number of variables, but we won't get into that.

[NineCloudNine]

2 hours ago, MichaelNevo said:

I said "mostly luck", not "entirely luck".

"there's always something that we do have control of" was my way of saying the things that you mentioned.

The luck percentage would move up and down based on a huge number of variables, but we won't get into that.

I know. I don’t think there’s any luck involved at all. A well-taken penalty is not saveable. A badly-taken penalty is a failure of either technique or nerve, not luck.

[MichaelNevo]

46 minutes ago, NineCloudNine said:

I know. I don’t think there’s any luck involved at all. A well-taken penalty is not saveable. A badly-taken penalty is a failure of either technique or nerve, not luck.

I'll agree to disagree 

[NineCloudNine]

46 minutes ago, MichaelNevo said:

I'll agree to disagree 

I’m interested to know what part of success or failure in taking a penalty you think is down to luck (by which I mean is outside the control of the penalty taker).

I’m not saying it’s easy btw. Just that both the technical and mental elements can be trained to the point where it makes no difference what the keeper does or what the circumstances are.

Edited May 8 by NineCloudNine

[MichaelNevo]

2 minutes ago, NineCloudNine said:

I’m interested to know what part of success or failure in taking a penalty you think is down to luck (by which I mean is outside the control of the penalty taker).

I’m not saying it’s easy btw. Just that both the technical and mental elements can be trained to the point where it makes no difference what the keeper does or what the circumstances are.

As I said, I agree to disagree. No matter my opinion, I know that you won't be swayed. There is literally no point to answering your question and subsequent questions, considering the only thing gained will be our post counts. 

[NineCloudNine]

30 minutes ago, MichaelNevo said:

As I said, I agree to disagree. No matter my opinion, I know that you won't be swayed. There is literally no point to answering your question and subsequent questions, considering the only thing gained will be our post counts. 

That's fine if you wish, but for the record I am genuinely interested in your view. I think it's a really interesting topic. It's not about being swayed or not. Opinions which differ from mine are more interesting than ones which just agree.

Edited May 8 by NineCloudNine

[MichaelNevo]

11 hours ago, NineCloudNine said:

That's fine if you wish, but for the record I am genuinely interested in your view. I think it's a really interesting topic. It's not about being swayed or not. Opinions which differ from mine are more interesting than ones which just agree.

Against my better judgement I will answer your question.

I remember as a teenager I was at a charity event and one of the activities was you could take a penalty against an ex-professional if you donated. I don't remember who he was, he wasn't anybody I knew by face. As I watched he saved all penalties except one, including my own. They weren't full size nets, but I was still amazed regardless. The only explanation is that he was able to judge where you would shoot based on your approach to the shot, whilst benefitting hugely from the fact that the nets were small.

In professional football, especially at the top level I would say it's a whole different ball game. Rather than calling it luck, I will refer to it as probability, but essentially they're the same thing. You now have players who know how to deceive a goalkeeper, or at the very least how to make it very difficult for them to know where you're about to strike the ball. I'll use Bruno Fernandes as an example... His run hop and skip method makes it very difficult for a goalkeeper to determine the trajectory, because it's an unusual run up to the ball and there's only a split second before he strikes to ball where there could be a possible giveaway. I'm not sure if he's used this method for all his penalty kicks, but for Manchester United he currently has a conversion rate of 88.9% with only 4 penalty misses.

This brings me onto the probability part. For a goalkeeper, he has 2 options... He can either go early or wait so that he can try and determine where the ball will go. Both options have their merit. If he goes early then it is a complete gamble and all down to luck (sorry but probability didn't seem the correct term). The only thing that is in the goalkeepers control here is his study of previous strikes for the player who is shooting. Some goalkeepers have it written down (Jordan Pickford). The merit for going early is that the goalkeeper can reach places of the goal that he wouldn't be able to if he went late. He's essentially going early due to the probability that the ball will go the same way, or its essentially just a total guess if he doesn't know the probability.

If he goes late, I'd say that he's relying less on probability, however he can't reach certain shots that he would be able to if he went early. So again he's 'riding his luck', as the striker may go for the top corners, to which he has no chance of saving. The merit for going late is that the goalkeeper can make a much better informed decision on which way to dive, or even to stay central (nobody likes conceding a panenka! Antonin you cruel dog!).

So that's my take on luck. Not all luck, but there's definitely luck in there somewhere.

[du Garbandier]

Set up your team's penalty takers in the Tactics area. Those who are in the team in a given match should then be pre-selected for the shootout, but you can still change the order. You can also add and remove players to the list before the shootout begins.

I don't pick more than five, unless there are some obviously good takers not already listed. I don't put the best one third -- sometimes fourth or fifth, but the important point is to take note of the players' attributes and state. Had a good game? Made big mistake? etc. etc. You'll probably need to hide one or two of them from the most pressured places -- first and last, in my opinion.

Finally, tell players in the team talk: pick your spot and don't change your mind.

You might still lose. My bigger bugbear is with shootouts that go on for 12-13 -14 kicks.

Edited May 9 by du Garbandier

[NineCloudNine]

6 hours ago, MichaelNevo said:

Against my better judgement I will answer your question.

I remember as a teenager I was at a charity event and one of the activities was you could take a penalty against an ex-professional if you donated. I don't remember who he was, he wasn't anybody I knew by face. As I watched he saved all penalties except one, including my own. They weren't full size nets, but I was still amazed regardless. The only explanation is that he was able to judge where you would shoot based on your approach to the shot, whilst benefitting hugely from the fact that the nets were small.

In professional football, especially at the top level I would say it's a whole different ball game. Rather than calling it luck, I will refer to it as probability, but essentially they're the same thing. You now have players who know how to deceive a goalkeeper, or at the very least how to make it very difficult for them to know where you're about to strike the ball. I'll use Bruno Fernandes as an example... His run hop and skip method makes it very difficult for a goalkeeper to determine the trajectory, because it's an unusual run up to the ball and there's only a split second before he strikes to ball where there could be a possible giveaway. I'm not sure if he's used this method for all his penalty kicks, but for Manchester United he currently has a conversion rate of 88.9% with only 4 penalty misses.

This brings me onto the probability part. For a goalkeeper, he has 2 options... He can either go early or wait so that he can try and determine where the ball will go. Both options have their merit. If he goes early then it is a complete gamble and all down to luck (sorry but probability didn't seem the correct term). The only thing that is in the goalkeepers control here is his study of previous strikes for the player who is shooting. Some goalkeepers have it written down (Jordan Pickford). The merit for going early is that the goalkeeper can reach places of the goal that he wouldn't be able to if he went late. He's essentially going early due to the probability that the ball will go the same way, or its essentially just a total guess if he doesn't know the probability.

If he goes late, I'd say that he's relying less on probability, however he can't reach certain shots that he would be able to if he went early. So again he's 'riding his luck', as the striker may go for the top corners, to which he has no chance of saving. The merit for going late is that the goalkeeper can make a much better informed decision on which way to dive, or even to stay central (nobody likes conceding a panenka! Antonin you cruel dog!).

So that's my take on luck. Not all luck, but there's definitely luck in there somewhere.

This is interesting and I’m glad you replied.

Yes, for the goalkeeper there is luck involved because they have to make a choice (left, right, stand still, wait, go early etc) with either limited/no information or very little time.

My perspective was from that of the penalty taker. A penalty hit hard into any of the 4 corners if the goal is unsaveable no matter what the keeper does. The only reason a penalty taker would not to do that is a failure of either technique or nerve (or both, the latter leading to the former). As a penalty taker has - via practice - both technique and nerves under their control, there should be no luck involved.

Where a penalty taker can get lucky is a poorly taken penalty that goes in because the keeper guessed wrong. So in that sense there is luck involved in a shootout, but only if you accept that the takers will not have eliminated it through the quality of their execution.

It always used to be a mantra - even at the very highest levels - that a penalty shootout was a lottery because the pressure conditions cannot be replicated in practice. I recall Sven Goran Erikson shooting this down with a casual “of course you can practice for it, it’s a skill like any other”. With modern undetstanding of visualisation and mental control skills, this is even more true now.

The mental focus of the taker is what keepers try to disrupt. The technical skill is largely a given, failing only when the mind gets in the way, like Harry Kane overthinking his second penalty of the game in the World Cup and trying to hit it harder/more precisely. Or Aurelien Tchouameni allowing himself to be irritated by Martinez throwing the ball away.

So I don’t think there should be any luck involved in the taking of a penalty because it is in the gift of the taker to eliminate luck as a factor. However, you are also right that it is possible for luck to affect the result of a penalty shootout because whether a poor penalty is saved or not definitely includes an element of chance because of the choices/guesses a keeper has to make.

[MichaelNevo]

51 minutes ago, NineCloudNine said:

This is interesting and I’m glad you replied.

Yes, for the goalkeeper there is luck involved because they have to make a choice (left, right, stand still, wait, go early etc) with either limited/no information or very little time.

My perspective was from that of the penalty taker. A penalty hit hard into any of the 4 corners if the goal is unsaveable no matter what the keeper does. The only reason a penalty taker would not to do that is a failure of either technique or nerve (or both, the latter leading to the former). As a penalty taker has - via practice - both technique and nerves under their control, there should be no luck involved.

Where a penalty taker can get lucky is a poorly taken penalty that goes in because the keeper guessed wrong. So in that sense there is luck involved in a shootout, but only if you accept that the takers will not have eliminated it through the quality of their execution.

It always used to be a mantra - even at the very highest levels - that a penalty shootout was a lottery because the pressure conditions cannot be replicated in practice. I recall Sven Goran Erikson shooting this down with a casual “of course you can practice for it, it’s a skill like any other”. With modern undetstanding of visualisation and mental control skills, this is even more true now.

The mental focus of the taker is what keepers try to disrupt. The technical skill is largely a given, failing only when the mind gets in the way, like Harry Kane overthinking his second penalty of the game in the World Cup and trying to hit it harder/more precisely. Or Aurelien Tchouameni allowing himself to be irritated by Martinez throwing the ball away.

So I don’t think there should be any luck involved in the taking of a penalty because it is in the gift of the taker to eliminate luck as a factor. However, you are also right that it is possible for luck to affect the result of a penalty shootout because whether a poor penalty is saved or not definitely includes an element of chance because of the choices/guesses a keeper has to make.

I guess our wires were crossed because we were looking at it from different perspectives. I do agree with your perspective though, especially since they started to employ sports psychologists to help the players.

It would be really interesting to know how in depth SI have gone with FM24 when it comes to penalties. Would all these things we talk about be represented in game and if not, which ones are represented and how much do they affect an actual penalty.

[XaW]

If you guys are (@NineCloudNine and @MichaelNevo) that interested, I can offer you this:

https://www.amazon.com/Pressure-Lessons-psychology-penalty-shoot-ebook/dp/B0CW1C7QZQ/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.PLYFErxAdL2jm9hBmooVlcVE98wJIy8juMxHKjO_Gbs.ASvGFUL3J0AUnifcrW7iD_keuDlAfzGAOH6tB795LMk&dib_tag=se&qid=1715277811&refinements=p_27%3AGeir+Jordet&s=books&sr=1-1

(I chose Amazon, because it's mostly global, but you can probably find it in other places too)

This guy is quite amazing when it comes down to pens and the psychology around it, as he should being a professor of psychology who has studied high pressure situations and narrowed it down to penalty taking. He has worked with a lot of big teams to help them prepare for it. If I remember correctly, the pre shootout ods are usually around 50-50 no matter the technical quality of the teams, but if the first taker scores AND celebrates a lot, the odds of the first team goes to about 60% for whatever reason.

Anyway, well worth a read if the topic is interesting.

[MichaelNevo]

4 minutes ago, XaW said:

If you guys are (@NineCloudNine and @MichaelNevo) that interested, I can offer you this:

https://www.amazon.com/Pressure-Lessons-psychology-penalty-shoot-ebook/dp/B0CW1C7QZQ/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.PLYFErxAdL2jm9hBmooVlcVE98wJIy8juMxHKjO_Gbs.ASvGFUL3J0AUnifcrW7iD_keuDlAfzGAOH6tB795LMk&dib_tag=se&qid=1715277811&refinements=p_27%3AGeir+Jordet&s=books&sr=1-1

(I chose Amazon, because it's mostly global, but you can probably find it in other places too)

This guy is quite amazing when it comes down to pens and the psychology around it, as he should being a professor of psychology who has studied high pressure situations and narrowed it down to penalty taking. He has worked with a lot of big teams to help them prepare for it. If I remember correctly, the pre shootout ods are usually around 50-50 no matter the technical quality of the teams, but if the first taker scores AND celebrates a lot, the odds of the first team goes to about 60% for whatever reason.

Anyway, well worth a read if the topic is interesting.

Thanks for pointing that out, I hope when it's released it goes to Audiobook as well, then I can purchase it for free 

[whatsupdoc]

No probs with shootouts for me... Reasonably balanced

[phantombandit]

I did!!! In the DFP Pokal quarter final as a severe underdog. Actually, my keeper had a 100% save rate against the 3 penalties against us since I had signed him, so I was confident.

He saved the first two penalties in the shootout.