Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The average from that lot is 39% of clear cut chances are scored, based on the records of the Premiership's top strikers (and Frazier Campbell) over about 18 games. What's the ratio of your league as a whole, not just that of your strikers? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You've not been proved right Remember that the clear cut chances come from his total chances. So someone can have a 30% all shot conversion rate but have a much higher/lower conversion of his clear chances. If we take Welbeck for example he has a 33% conversion rate yet has 88% for clear cut chances. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2538583/You-think-Luis-Suarez-sharpest-shooter-Premier-League-Well-doesnt-make-four-heres-why.html Not a single player in the EPL has over a 40% conversion rate. In fact the highest is Yaya Toure with 37%. But on average the figure is between 20-33% for the EPL as a whole. Nothing you've said affects my point. People in this thread were claiming that a top striker will convert a 20-30% of their one-on-ones. The stats I posted show that this figure is way too low, as there are plenty of EPL strikers who convert 50% or more of their clear cut chances. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Note: Their definition of CCC for those statistics is: "Basically, a clear-cut chance is a “sitter”. A free header, a one-on-one, a penalty – basically any free shot on goal for a player who is un-marked and only has the keeper to beat" So one-on-ones will only make up part of those (these are also what counted for Frank Lampard's 80% conversion ratio from last season - 1/3rd of which were from penalties, for example). Basically, without actually looking at the chances individually, you can't just assume that those stats equal one-on-one chances with the keeper. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You really are clutching at straws now Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cleon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nothing you've said affects my point. People in this thread were claiming that a top striker will convert a 20-30% of their one-on-ones. The stats I posted show that this figure is way too low, as there are plenty of EPL strikers who convert 50% or more of their clear cut chances. Your sample is from half a season, the rates will drop considerably between now and the end of the season for most players. You have to remember what you've done is looked at the players with the highest values and gone 'OMFG its much higher' but in reality it isn't if you take the average for every single striker in the league, it works out at 29.76%. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's irrelevant. The 20-30% stat wasn't referring to 'every single striker in the league', it was about 'the very best finishers' (to use Ackter's own words). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Your sample is from half a season, the rates will drop considerably between now and the end of the season for most players. You have to remember what you've done is looked at the players with the highest values and gone 'OMFG its much higher' but in reality it isn't if you take the average for every single striker in the league, it works out at 29.76%. Except for Papiss Cisse in his wonder half-a-season, who actually got an 88% CCC conversion rate Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's irrelevant. The 20-30% stat wasn't referring to 'every single striker in the league', it was about 'the very best finishers' (to use Ackter's own words). Welbeck is one of the very best finishers now? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the rates will drop considerably between now and the end of the season for most players. I doubt this, and it's pure speculation anyway. I'll happily come back to this thread in a few months and see what the stats say. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The problem is with a certain type of user who always insists that his players are the ones that should be getting the very best %s. If you can show that the league average differs between real life and in game then there's a problem, but just because your strikers are struggling, it doesn't mean anything. Your strikers could be the Theo Walcott and Christian Benteke of that season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Welbeck is one of the very best finishers now? I don't know how it helps your argument to suggest that even a mediocre finisher can achieve a conversion rate massively higher than 20-30%? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cleon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I doubt this, and it's pure speculation anyway. I'll happily come back to this thread in a few months and see what the stats say. Okay then if you want it just for the top 10 strikers (in terms of goals) in the top 6 leagues in the world it works out at 33.19% if you use whoscored and check on there. So even still, its not much outside the parameters Ackter mentioned. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
themadsheep2001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's irrelevant. The 20-30% stat wasn't referring to 'every single striker in the league', it was about 'the very best finishers' (to use Ackter's own words). Top 5 forwards in the world right now (league goals) and their conversion rates: Luis Suárez: 23 goals @ 23% Cristiano Ronaldo 22 goals @ 13% Diego Costa: 19 goals @ 26% Zlatan Ibrahimovic: 17 goals @ 16% Sergio Agüero: 15 goals @ 21% This is the clear cut conversion rate for 2012/13 for the Premier League Total shot conversion rate for last season (till april 26th) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cleon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't know how it helps your argument to suggest that even a mediocre finisher can achieve a conversion rate massively higher than 20-30%? The stats show he's not mediocre though and is the 2nd best finisher in the league so you can't accept one aspect of it then dismiss the other part like you just seemingly did. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 62% Read the wrong column. Poor Cisse. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So looking at those stats, even at the end of a season there are a number of strikers with a CCC conversion rate above 50%, and plenty above 40%. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why has no big team taken a chance on Fletcher yet? His conversion rates are always off the charts. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The stats show he's not mediocre though and is the 2nd best finisher in the league so you can't accept one aspect of it then dismiss the other part like you just seemingly did. It was Acker who was suggesting he's not a top finisher, not me. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 So looking at those stats, even at the end of a season there are a number of strikers with a CCC conversion rate above 50%, and plenty above 40%. CCC rate. Not one-on-one rate. That includes penalties, tap-ins etc as well (which is why Lampard's is so high). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Seriously, look at the top strikers in those end of season stats. People like Rooney, RvP, Balotelli, Aguero. All much higher than 20-30% Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CCC rate. Not one-on-one rate. That includes penalties, tap-ins etc as well (which is why Lampard's is so high). Firstly people posted the CCC stats to support the 20-30% theory. Then when I pointed out that they don't do anything of the kind you say the stats are invalid. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 And what are your league's averages in game? Not just your strikers. Incidentally, stats from my experiment using the best striker in the world, Lionel Messi: Games: 104 Shots: 635 On Target: 356 (56%) Goals: 144 (33 braces, 6 hattricks) Minutes per Goal: 65.40 Assists: 32 and these are the sorts of goals he was scoring: [video=youtube;n7K0BLggTVg] [video=youtube;744Hi88l0Sc] Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
themadsheep2001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Firstly people posted the CCC stats to support the 20-30% theory. Then when I pointed out that they don't do anything of the kind you say the stats are invalid. I wasnt supporting any theory. Just stating the numbers. But Ackter's point about penalties etc is entirely valid, as they all count as CCC% Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Firstly people posted the CCC stats to support the 20-30% theory. Then when I pointed out that they don't do anything of the kind you say the stats are invalid. Yeah, the discussion was always about one-on-one chances with the keeper. It's you that's changing things to try and support your claims. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 But I'm not complaining about the stats in my league. I just found the 20-30% IRL stat mentioned in this thread to be unrealistic. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 and you're using stats about different things to try and back that up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, the discussion was always about one-on-one chances with the keeper. It's you that's changing things to try and support your claims. What have I changed in my argument? I didn't introduce the CCC stats to this thread, but I accept they are probably the best we have, and they support my point. If you have any other stats, looking at one-on-ones only, I'd be happy to see them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 and you're using stats about different things to try and back that up. I'm using stats that other people have posted to try to back up your argument. :confused: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
themadsheep2001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What have I changed in my argument? I didn't introduce the CCC stats to this thread, but I accept they are probably the best we have, and they support my point. If you have any other stats, looking at one-on-ones only, I'd be happy to see them. They don't really support your point if they are skewed by things like penalties and tap ins though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Technically, Welbeck has scored 100% of his one-on-ones this season. He's had 1. All his other CCC conversions were tap-ins. I refuse to watch another one of those videos. They're made by wannabe oscar directors with awful taste in music. You're showing someone scoring goals ffs, not fighting in a war. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Amazing that the same people who were posting these stats are now claiming they're irrelevant. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I refuse to watch another one of those videos. They're made by wannabe oscar directors with awful taste in music. You're showing someone scoring goals ffs, not fighting in a war. Well, at least we can agree on that Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Amazing that the same people who were posting these stats are now claiming they're irrelevant. They're irrelevant to the point we were discussing, which was the one-on-one conversion rate of strikers. As the Danny Welbeck example shows, only one of his goals was a one-on-one chance, yet you're using his 80% tap-in conversion rate to show that he scores 80% of his one-on-ones. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
themadsheep2001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Amazing that the same people who were posting these stats are now claiming they're irrelevant. I actually have no part of this debate in terms of side, but you misrepresent your own argument. Sarcastically clapping doesn't change the fact that CCCs take into account penalties, tap ins , free headers and other non 1 on 1 CCCs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Seriously, though. Never watch one of those goal & skillz (sic) compilation videos. Just horrible viewing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CCCs are categorised together for a reason, which is presumably that they are similar types of chances with a similarly high likelihood of scoring. But leaving that to one side... I originally asked for evidence of the 20-30% one-on-one conversion rate for the very best finishers. Other users linked to the CCC stats, and I've pointed out that they don't support that claim at all. If you're still maintaining the 20-30% thing is accurate, let's see some statistical evidence that you think is credible. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
agentvinz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Suddenly this thread has changed from SAS to CCC. Lol Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
aderow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've always felt that people focus too much on CCCs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
deserter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I can't find any stats on one-on-one chance conversion. My experience is that a clear one-on-one chance is far from the easiest of chances. You give the gk time to close down the angles and it's going to be very hard. Scoring from a tap-in is definitely easier. Clearly penalties are easier too. Surely short range shots where it's enough to blast the ball to score, provided you miss the keeper, are easier. Free headers, debatable given the variety of heading ability, but at least the keeper usually wouldn't be best prepared. If above stands, then it seems like one-on-ones are actually the most difficult clear cut chances to put away. It would follow that their conversion rate is lower than CCC rate. Right? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebadger1976 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Probably a bit less than the 70-80% that top CCC finishers can achieve, but it's highly unlikely to be down in the range of 20-30%. And a free header is definitely not always easier than a one-on-one, depending on the player. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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