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About santy001

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    Stoke City Researcher

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  1. santy001

    Youth players and determination

    Drops can be caused by various things, away from the "culture" of the team. Lax discipline from the manager can cause a drop in some of the mental/personality attributes to reflect the reality of players being able to get away with more. At the same time, too much praise can see attributes like determination drop because again, it's creating a feedback loop in which depending on other factors can see a player no longer feeling the need to be as determined, or work as hard. Some can be knock on effects from other things, giving a youngster a big contract can (note not will, but can) have a downward effect on the hidden attributes and this can filter through then to mental attributes and to general stagnation as a footballer. The system isn't supposed to be a "do X, do Y and do Z you will get a 20 determination player" there are things that can be done to bring it up, criticising poor performances, poor training performances. Well utilised team discipline can really bring out better positives, but even then while it works for some others will have different personalities and so it can still backfire. So ultimately the loss of determination can be in some cases a few stages down the line from what the actual issue is. For example: Young player is playing well, coming into January to ward off interest you tie the player down on a 5 year, high value contract. February rolls around and the player has lost ambition because he's now reached the top, and doesn't have the impetus any longer to push harder. He's generally been playing poorly and training poorly which is written off down to being out of form, but not being picked up has perhaps seen his professionalism drop. Come the end of the season he hasn't gotten worse, perhaps he's even rallied a bit in terms of form and you've heaped a bit of praise on him back in April and May, and now in June in the off-season you're finding his determination has dropped and now you're finally noticing an issue. All hypothetical, but having mismanaged a player over a prolonged period can result in something you only see manifest at the final stage.
  2. Well without use of an arbitrary date, who do you pick the date to lock it at for a database? As I said, I'm sure there are some leagues you can start as early as March/April 2018. You can go as late as the same time in 2019, but that hasn't happened so we can only really go up to the games data lock before release date for inclusion. So there's dates between let's say April 1st and October 31st at the latest. That's an awfully long period of time, a quick check in excel shows it as 213 days. While SI wouldn't need to maintain 213 databases, that could in theory be easier than actually making sure they get accurate screenshots at relevant leagues start dates in that time. Either way, it creates this on-going pressure to create these databases and test them, verify their accuracy and it is certainly not viable. The reality is that for a game a certain date has to be picked, in some years it will have a negligible impact in others unfortunately it will be more noticed.
  3. Just what exactly does this apply to then @Weston because while you say hypothetically preserve the starting database (presumably you mean until the first transfer window) then there are two major problems. What if you take a start date earlier in the year? I know quite a few countries offer starts at the beginning of their own seasons which are part way through if you take a standard June/July start. Of course it can vary by when you the player starts the game, but this then comes with the next round of problems. Can these clubs who are part way through not try to save themselves from a bad season by replacing a manager? Can no club at all fire a manager until the next transfer window to preserve the starting database? Can clubs not receive takeovers, and can player contracts not be negotiated? I suspect you don't intend for these to be included, but they are very much in the remit of preserving the starting database. Those are the kinds of things that come with preserving the database, all the disable transfers in the first window option does is prevent clubs handing out their otherwise set transfer budget. Preserving the games data for a period with huge caveats depending on league selection would be a nightmare. - - - As for who is what and where, as Herne mentions the game has a data lock. It has to have one, otherwise you'd never be able to release a patch with data updates of course. This does sometimes mean some high profile things, such as the Real Madrid job were not resolved in time to be included in that data.
  4. santy001

    So whats new ? (nothing)

    Over the last couple of years I've had players who have performed very well and been signed by bigger clubs despite having nowhere near the requirements to perform at the champions league level in terms of raw CA. It typically takes more than 1 sustained season, and it typically needs a player to be younger rather than Gayle who would by the point you're talking about be close to 29. There's other factors at play as well though, one being will clubs think you're willing to part for a reasonable sum and will the player accept reasonable wages. It tends to reflect quite well that general deadzone that typically a lot of players can end up in where post-25 even quite good performances don't necessarily bring in much interest.
  5. santy001

    So whats new ? (nothing)

    @Maaka In regards to your first point, there's definitely thoughts I can see to people thinking a bit of variance on the set PA could be a good way to go. It would indeed after all create potential variation, and 5 or so years ago I'd probably be extremely inclined to agree. I really think that going forward though the variation, or perception thereof, will come further and further through the attainment of PA and the way in which players develop. It's an iterative process, each year it will undoubtedly improve. I think it will end up feeling much more organic and true to life that unforeseen impacts prevent a player getting there. It's worth mentioning that in general, it is already very much the case that players aren't a sure thing in FM19. What the community is very good at however is zeroing in on those who are extremely likely to be well set to be successful in the game. I don't think there's ever going to be a way to combat that, but strictly speaking it's not something that needs combating. We won't ever know for sure until we're after the fact with players and the heights they reach but some players have always been likely to succeed so long as they got the chance at an appropriate point in their career.
  6. Surely it wouldn't be right for FMbase to annex this thread.
  7. What a bizarre post, that is amazingly immature to make. I'll never understand this because it clearly provides no basis to infer anything about SI's position. If you can't grasp it, then you really need to stop playing as Norwich City on FM. Because do a bit of digging on Britain. You can find some right shocking things past and present that will make you feel terrible for ever daring to have embraced a team from such a country. In fact, there probably isn't any country you could play in on FM. I'm sure everyone will have done something negative at some point in time and it would be awfully hypocritical to decide the only ones that count are in your own preferred time frame.
  8. santy001

    Something is really wrong with some matches

    Off hand there's not too much to say is there? You were playing a system that seems to panic infront of goal and shoot a lot. They weren't good or great chances, because you scored 2 + 1 penalty. It's be more interesting to see the spread of shots in the team analysis section.
  9. santy001

    So whats new ? (nothing)

    The immediate problems there though: - Server costs (Battlefield servers cost around $300 a year, not unreasonable to think FM could cost something the same) I wouldn't want to pay that compared to the free model of online play now. - It puts enormous impetus on players to actually schedule their "fun" or "enjoyment" in life. - It your schedules do line up, one or more players are going to be stuck waiting for the other. Those are just 3 big issues even if all the other technical problems could be overcome. It would hammer the enjoyment out of it I feel. It would be prohibitive to actually then playing the game together, and even if that was somehow circumvented as well, you're still increasing the costs and making it a lot more complicated than it is now.
  10. santy001

    So whats new ? (nothing)

    Considering I almost exclusively play FM online these days, including 15 seasons so far (2 in a Stoke-Leeds game, 13 in a Malmo-Halmstads game) on FM19 and on FM18 played close to 100 seasons of network games I can speak to just how almost impossible it is. It turns out, it is in no way almost impossible. - - - To dissect things a little more, even if the game could somehow regularly splinter and fragment itself so that you could play your next 10 games and advance through the calendar, somehow suppressing the results of the other teams in your league, then allowing another player to do the same before putting it back together enormous rifts appear. Signing player, signing staff, player contract expiry dates etc. Not to mention cup competitions, which you could end up with an end of season 10 game batch including the champions league final. But if the other player is also in the champions league, their path to the final won't be decided yet. So their games aren't played, but would have to have been played for you to play your games. You'd hit illogical happenings pretty quickly. Simply put, it doesn't work. It couldn't work. It wouldn't be worth the effort of even trying to make it work. In fact, it'd be so butchered I'm struggling to even coherently organise all the thoughts of "jesus christ it would mess up X" so badly to be able to list them all. - - - Also its strange how you're mentioning that tactics from previous years work well with little changes, the aim of the FM series isn't to produce a new footballing meta every year. We don't go through the FM "Year of the formation" on a Chinese Year style "This is the year of the 442, if you were born in this year you are balanced in defence and attack but are weak to being outnumbered in the middle" I actually think there could be a decent future in streaming or making compilations of network games. The only reason why I haven't done it myself is because the conversations me and the mate that plays FM with me have would get us kicked off Twitch and Youtube so fast.
  11. santy001

    So whats new ? (nothing)

    Posts like this don't help the discussion advance though do they? It's already been said what the scouting system is trying to achieve. It's using some of what is immediately observed about a player and through things like their JPA representing a professional coach giving their gut instinct feeling about a player. The scouts in game do not know the PA, even highly rated staff can be deceived by what I showed with my reserves in the post I put spoiler tags in. Saying they're too accurate on a sample size of 1 that's being edited to show that the system isn't just pure RNG and dumb luck isn't a valid criticism. It would be far worse from a game perspective if scouting was actually just a cosmetic feature. Because that's the logical conclusion of the point you tried to make, that you're arguing that scouting should be more cosmetic, or cosmetic entirely and not be of any use in the game to the AI or human managers. To reiterate: Scouting is a system through which the game attempts to simulate something that cannot be emulated - human intelligence. It uses different aspects of the game without being a cast iron guarantee or definitive guide to a player - mirroring the real life margin of error that is possible when any scout makes any recommendation about any player. - - - In more depth on your "test". As far as that staff member in game is concerned, he's assessed 3 different players. As @enigmatic states, he's way out on the 75PA player (personally I think around 95CA is the lowest with some extensive researcher cheese I could make a useful premier league player), and way out on the 200PA player (in the accuracy of his assessment) and kind of in the right ball park of the 149 player. However, even this is dubious because that 4th star of uncertainty is suggesting he could be truly standout which is kind of possible at 149, there are certainly ways to create a world class player at 149 CA but broadly speaking it's not so likely. All your test shows is that if you use a system in the game in an unintended fashion you get weird outcomes. What you've done ultimately has little difference to someone saving and reloading then saying its strange how they won every game. From a functional game perspective, its significantly better that the game behaves the way it did with the test you did. This is because it demonstrates that the scouting system is actually a tangible and meaningful part of the game. Which is vital, it would be terrible if SI were adding integral parts of football but that they were merely cosmetic. It in no way demonstrates your claim though that scouts are too accurate. This is because with the numbers you used it rated a 75PA player as "at least" good enough to be a squad rotation player, potentially good enough for the first team. A 149 player as "at least" good enough for the first team, potentially a key player. And a 200 PA player as "at least" a good player, and maybe the potential to be one of the best. If the scouts were as accurate as you claim then the 75PA would be a 0.5 - 1 star player for Arsenal. The 149 player should be a 2.5 - 3.5 star player. The 200PA player should be 4.5 - 5 star player.
  12. The game provides you with general frameworks for guidance on attributes that provide something more middle of the road. They're not wrong, they're not bad, they'll serve you pretty well actually. But they're just a framework to look at. The very best players rarely fit a standard template, there is something unconventional about them for the position you'd expect them to play. Sometimes so unconventional that they end up redefining a position in the game to become what we see is a new role. - - - So moving onto something more specific, and the one mentioned in the OP. Anticipation. It's a marvellous stat, and you're right its important for everyone. Anticipation is the attribute that can see an old striker still score 20+ goals a season when his legs have gone. Anticipation is the attribute that can see a slow, lumbering centre-half keep a pacey player quiet. Not alone, never alone because the attributes don't work in a vacuum but the ability to read the game is a sign of footballing intelligence and having that is always a good thing. Yet there's still situations it can let a player down. You might be playing balls over the top, trying to get in behind the defence, but this lumbering oaf with great anticipation is playing a blinder, the defensive line is deep enough and he's dropping even deeper that every time your speed demon forward gets the ball there's no space to run into. So you sub on a more technically gifted, but a little slower player on. Same ball goes over the top, and he's negated the speed once more, but this defender despite his anticipation lacks agility and concentration and the new player has great dribbling, technique, balance and agility. Well all of a sudden the anticipation isn't counting for much, because he just isn't physically and mentally able to keep track with what this forward is doing. A few tricky turns, some agile movement and he's made 2 yards of space, fired a shot off and scored. Players have a score for every attribute that is important to them, how important it is to them is depending on what you want that player to do. If you want your box to box midfielder surging in the box and scoring headers (hello Milinkovic-Savic, my favourite 6'4" box to box midfielder) then you need him to be tall, have a good jumping reach and heading at the base line. If you want him to be more proficient you also want him to have a good off the ball attribute too. If you've got a set-up that creates a lot of crosses around the penalty spot then this kind of guy could be ideal to get you 10+ goals a season from midfield.
  13. santy001

    So whats new ? (nothing)

    For human players, I'm of the belief that scouting and coach reports will serve to eliminate those with weak hidden attributes. I did make a feature suggestion recently, because it's something that's becoming more noticeable that a lot of footballers aren't either just over-hyped or good enough. I feel a consistency/important matches modifying attribute could be implemented to represent just how the trials and tribulations of life are impacting on their focus on football. It would need to be more malleable than a normal attribute, but it could open up to the fact that at the lower end its representing footballers who are struggling with gambling addictions, with alcoholism, with mental health issues or even just having a hard time of it in life as some do after the death of a relative. Having something like that which modifies mental attributes and hidden attributes could bring to the table a substantial aspect of life that influences how a players career goes. Perhaps SI can bring this to fruition through other attributes, like how determination/ambition can suffer from getting too much too soon, or too much praise etc. But it's the one element we really cannot provide research for. Bojan put his name to an article recently talking about how he's had massive anxiety issues over the last 10 years. It's a yearning of mine for the game to develop something whereby a manager who can find the right way to manage and coach the likes of Bojan and Berahino get them to the potential they've shown. Whereas a normal manager struggles to get that out of them. Because one thing that stands out to me in football is that there have been player and manager combinations that have just worked, and the player has never looked as good again under another manager.
  14. santy001

    [FM19] A Cold Wet Tuesday Night in Stoke

    September With the window shut now it's time to focus truly on the football. Coming into September I'd settled on the formation posted above. With 5 wins from 5 it's got a promising start, but the question that remains in the background is always the one of how much is down to me just having a generally speaking superior squad on paper? The players abilities may be papering over the cracks. The League Table: Tactical Worries One thing I'm still really worried about is my shot spread. It feels like far too many shots from long range, the goals feel a little further out than perhaps would be comfortable but in this game against Rotherham they were after a player had broken the defensive line and gotten into a 1 on 1 with the keeper. Shooting that early/far out seems a bit weird but if they're confident they've got it then it's not the worst thing in the world.
  15. santy001

    So whats new ? (nothing)

    @jcp1417 Yes. I'm saying a test, of something that is impossible to have happen in the game means nothing. There isn't a problem with the transfer system if you add yourself as an AI manager and accept a £0 bid for Lionel Messi. If you take over an AI team and make them play all the youngsters every game, it doesn't mean there's something wrong with the game getting that team relegated. Now, as for the actual mechanic, I believe the term that applies to scouts is "Perceived Potential Ability" now the scouts don't know the players potential, but depending on their ability the game uses the actual PA, and their ability to judge PA to simulate the elements of a scout assessing a player and where they think he can go. It's representative of something like "gut instinct" and representative of a scouts track record it's basically the process in which the game tries to simulate something no game can emulate - human intelligence. The reason it has to be like this is because the basic formula would otherwise be Age + Current Perceived Ability = Potential. When neither of which are directly responsible for a players actual potential. They are influencing factors on where you believe they could go, but they aren't actually anything tangible. For scouts to have any worth in the game, to serve any functional purpose there has to be a simulation of the judgement calls they make in part of their day to day. If the in-game scouts do not have this ability (perceived potential ability), then the in game scouts become completely useless and redundant. If you wish to make the argument that scouts should not be included, or that they should only exist in the sphere of FM to remove the fog of war on player attributes so be it, go make that argument in the feature requests section. But the claim that scouts know potential is so far wide of the mark that it means the point your'e trying to make is meaningless. If your claim is that the staff member in game in question necessitates a CA of around 75PA for 2 stars of potential, and around 200PA for 4 stars of potential, then for a 5 star potential player for Arsenal to appear in his judgement, they would need 260+PA. Which isn't going to happen. It would also mean that the lowest entrant on the scale, would need a -18PA. Again not possible. So in conclusion, it has no real bearing, no real meaning. - - - You're trying to play "aha gotcha!" with a system in the game that (demonstrably by my own post alone) works as intended with a range of players. When taking 1 reserve squad from the game, in which there's a full set of reports on potential available for, and comparing that to their actual potentials you see that your claim has no basis in reality. Getting so caught up in the semantics we're using to try and help your own understanding does nothing to help. PA as a researcher sets it is the players genetic PA. When it comes to a scouts perception of the PA, it's representative of an educated guess, of a career professional who's putting their name to a claim on what they believe is possible for that future. It's a very simple concept, will it stand up to the scrutiny of someone making up fabricated scenarios and poking it until it shows something they want to see? Probably not. Yet as I demonstrated, when you show what the system is doing organically in the game, as its intended to be doing, with the curtain pulled back you realise that it gets kinda close with a few players, it gets it massively wrong with a lot of players and is definitely over-exaggerating the potential of a few based on their good starting points and young ages. - - - @warlock I have suggested this in the past. SI have said it can't be done as all the information is stored on your PC, the game needs ongoing access to these and encryption would be extremely difficult. Presumably the time constraints it would add to processing/saving/loading.