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Moneyballing My Way To A Champions League Title in Every European Nation Part X: The FM23 Experiment


shaunvamos
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August 2034

 

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We get off to a great start in what could have been a difficult opening set of fixtures.

 

 

 

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It's not a great group, but it could've been worse like C or H. Poor Larne and Olympiakos :lol:

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September 2034

 

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Hearts kindly remind us that although we are the three time defending league champions, we're not invincible, and in the Champions League Leipzig strike an early blow to our progression hopes.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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The opening international window of the season is always the most uncertain as there haven't been enough games to properly assess form. But we navigate through it quite well. We just need to finish above Ukraine to survive.

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October 2034

 

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The loss to Real Madrid is the only blemish this month, with some huge scorelines making up the rest of them.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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All we had to do was tie with Ukraine to probably ensure safety, so of course we lost.

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November 2034

 

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It's neck and neck between us and Celtic in the league, and we're into the Europa League knockouts. 

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We had the chance to stay up, but not to be.

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2 hours ago, karanhsingh said:

Brilliant stuff with the Scots so far, mightily impressive!

Btw how do you measure the overall ranking in your graphs, I realize you may have explained it earlier but I could not find it.

Thanks!

 

Do you mean the player ratings? It's the average rating of the Best XI and the average age each season :) 

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December 2034

 

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We absolutely destroyed Celtic in the league, and even though they beat us in the League Cup we go into 2035 with a 6 point lead.

 

 

 

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Groningen are a winnable draw, but Chelsea, Atletico, Arsenal/Dortmund, Roma and Monaco are all excellent teams.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, shaunvamos said:

Thanks!

 

Do you mean the player ratings? It's the average rating of the Best XI and the average age each season :) 

Ah i saw your excel and sort of figured it out. That's some serious work! Very impressive. 

Do you factor in two footedness in your ratings?

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7 hours ago, karanhsingh said:

Ah i saw your excel and sort of figured it out. That's some serious work! Very impressive. 

Do you factor in two footedness in your ratings?

The ratings are a custom formula which relies entirely on the player attributes, but I'm looking to forgo that in favour of something more quantifiable like the game statistics in the near future, like the way I'm picking the national team.

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March 2035

 

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We found a way to lose an unloseable game :seagull: I need a serious rethink in terms of recruitment, we need depth and the academy players are too far away to bridge that gap. 

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We have a very tough group, so every point will be vital.

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April 2035

 

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We have four games to go and a 6 point advantage. It's a strong position, but if there's a way to lose it we will find it.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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A strong win over Austria sends us top of the group.

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2035 Preseason

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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We make about 3m profit off Graves, who made 123 appearances but was starting to fade out of the first team.

 

 

 

Transfers (In)

 

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A new way of recruitment is being tested, with a target from each position being targeted and signed (on heavily back-ended deals) based on their form from the last season after starting at least 13 games, and scaling their performance on league reputation.

 

 

 

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Here's everyone, colour coded by position of interest. This is more me thinking if they can perform at that level there's no reason they can't do a job for us and advance their career.

 

I'm also abandoning the attribute formula for recruitment and selection, opting to go for a form based selection instead. It's just an experiment at the moment, but the attribute ratings will return at the end of season review to see if the recruitment has made our team better. 

 

How many are good enough to be starters though? 

 

 

Central Defender

 

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Left Wing Back 

 

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We'll see if the form of the others can help them force their way into the side.

 

 

 

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A win over Tottenham with a full strength side is very encouraging.

 

 

 

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We are the 4 time defending champions, and Rangers finished 8th last season, so to mark them as favourites makes perfect sense.

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5 minutes ago, shaunvamos said:

We are the 4 time defending champions, and Rangers finished 8th last season, so to mark them as favourites makes perfect sense.

Probably still based on reputation.  I am sure if you looked under the hood at team reps, Celtic and Rangers would still be well ahead of you

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August 2035

 

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A strong start so far as Rangers are currently living up to their preseason expectations.

 

 

 

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I'm okay with this group, I'm pretty confident we can push Monaco harder than we did 4 seasons ago (4-1 loss and 1-1) but Bayern will be too far ahead.

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1 hour ago, Pompeyboyz said:

Probably still based on reputation.  I am sure if you looked under the hood at team reps, Celtic and Rangers would still be well ahead of you

I had a look, and Rangers are the third highest rep team behind us and Celtic. So not sure what the go is there.

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September 2035

 

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We were going well until a rotated team went and got flogged by Ross County, but at least we drew with Bayern!

 

 

 

National Team

 

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A little stuck in the mud against Turkey and Finland, but we still stay second.

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October 2035

 

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Apart from the loss to Monaco this month was a defensive masterclass.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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Two excellent performances and we've qualified for the 2036 Euros :D 

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December 2035

 

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A very busy end to the year, as Ross County record their second victory in the league over us and remain the only team to have beaten us in the league so far.

 

 

 

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What a terrible draw. It could have been worse, but we blew it against Groningen so I'm not optimistic here.

 

 

 

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January 2036

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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We've already flipped Winton for profit as he was making noises about leaving, and loan out some others.

 

 

 

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We are absolutely storming ahead in the league.

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This is the first time I've ever had a tycoon in a save, and this comes at the perfect time. We're haemorrhaging money because everyone UK based is so expensive, but if Mr Deng sticks around for a little while this won't be a huge issue. 

 

This is so exciting :D :eek:

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February 2036

 

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We have the chance to go more than 20 points clear at the top if we win our game in hand. I don't know if this is confirmation bias, but picking on form seems to be working wonders this season.

 

 

 

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We beat Milan at the San Siro in a great performance, and now we get Spurs. We beat them in a friendly this year, but let's see what we can do in a competitive environment. It's a murderer's row of team's left in this competition as well, there are no easy team left.

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I'm trying to get your formula working for myself as my tactic uses slightly different roles but I am struggling with calculating the bit I've highlighted in red:

 

((Sum of all key attributes for role + (0.66 * (sum of all preferable attributes for role))) / total number of key/preferable attributes for role * 5) / rating if all attributes were 17 * 100

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March 2036

 

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Tottenham bundle us out of the Europa League, but the league is almost well and truly settled, we've been fantastic.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We smashed Sweden to my great surprise, and dealt with Canada too.

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17 hours ago, poobington said:

I'm trying to get your formula working for myself as my tactic uses slightly different roles but I am struggling with calculating the bit I've highlighted in red:

 

((Sum of all key attributes for role + (0.66 * (sum of all preferable attributes for role))) / total number of key/preferable attributes for role * 5) / rating if all attributes were 17 * 100

 

You have to create a dummy row at the where all attribute values are 17 to find the value you're looking for to use in each role :) 

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Scotland's EURO 2036 Campaign

 

Squad

 

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I think it's a stronger side then the World Cup two years earlier, evidenced by the 6 players playing in the Premier League as opposed to 3 two seasons ago. With the exception of Kerr Smith they're all under 30 as well. The same amount of Scottish developed talent is there as well, with 14/23 starting their career off in Scotland, with Rangers having developed the most at 3. Motherwell, Celtic, us and Man City are the only others with more than one player developed at the club. 

 

 

 

Ideal XI

 

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Goalkeeper

 

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Central Defenders

 

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Right Wing Back

 

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Defensive Midfielder

 

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Left Wing Back

 

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Central Midfielders

 

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Strikers

 

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Group Stage Draw

 

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We get a very good draw. I'm confident we can handle Bulgaria and Kosovo, so to go through in 2nd is okay with me. Some tough groups though, with England/Italy, France/Holland and Belgium/Spain all in the same group.

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Arguably our most successful season to date, a domestic treble and our best offensive performance yet!

 

 

 

Best XI

 

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Christopher Wear  -  James Williams  -  Christopher Udoh

 

 

 

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A massive drop in the overall rating, but our form was arguably the best it's ever been. It's an interesting feature to notice.

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

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Award Winners

 

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Progress

 

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Scotland's Euro 2036 Campaign

 

Group Stage

 

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Kosovo surprised the hell out of us in the first game, putting a cloud over me and the squad as we needed to at least draw with Germany to stand a chance at qualifying from the group. We somehow beat them in Germany, and a draw against Bulgaria capped off a disappointing group stage.

 

 

 

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A few interesting results here, with Serbia topping Portugal, World Cup finalists Ireland scraping through, and England losing to Bosnia almost knocked them out.

 

 

 

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Portugal is a tough ask, and probably too tough for us. But one of Italy or Spain will exit the comp at this stage too, which makes for must watch football.

 

 

 

Second Round

 

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Yeah, thought so. 

 

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No real upsets here, and we move on to the quarter finals.

 

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It's a real clash of heavyweights in two of these fixtures.

 

 

 

Quarter Finals

 

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Nothing real drastic happened here, and four huge teams play for the chance to reach the final.

 

 

 

Semi Finals

 

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The hosts scrape through to the final on penalties, where they will face England fresh off a dominant display against the French.

 

 

 

Final

 

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It's coming home.... to Germany, as the hosts lift the title! I've kept my job, but we better start seeing some results soon or I may not have it for long.

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2036 Preseason

 

Transfers

 

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More depth pieces as the experiment continues. We've done some raiding a little closer to home as well, so hopefully some of these guys can feature at some point.

 

 

 

Striker

 

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Perfect preseason and we're finally predicted to finish top of the league and comfortably at that.

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August 2036

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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One big sale with starting keeper Ricardinho departs for Lyon and the Ligue 1. I was happy to let it happen, our backup keeper is an academy product with a lot of potential.

 

 

 

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Everything was going great until we ran into Ross County, who are becoming something of a bogey side for us.

 

 

 

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This is a group we can definitely qualify from finally :D But groups A, B, D, F and H are nightmares!

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September 2036

 

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We flog Aberdeen to jump them in the Premiership as we clunk to a draw against Shakhtar.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We get off to what I thought would be a slow start in the Nations League, but we're top after the first two games. 

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October 2036

 

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A pretty poor month, with 2 losses in the league that sees us fall to 2nd.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We get revenge over Kosovo, but Poland destroy us and our chances for promotion likely with it.

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November 2036

 

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It all comes down to our last Champions League game against Shakhtar.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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A silly loss to Kosovo robs us of promotion back to the top Nations League division.

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December 2036

 

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We really picked up form at the end of the month, and sit top at least a win clear.

 

 

 

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We qualify for the knockout stage of the Champions League, but I don't think we'll be progressing past United.

 

 

 

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January 2037

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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3 players leave for money in January, most notably Christopher Udoh, who just couldn't quite replicate his form from last season and fell out of the first team as a result. We made a small profit on him, but a 700% profit on Christopher Wear, who leaves for Saudi Arabia after nearly 200 league appearances for us. His consistency will be missed. Lastly, we double our buy price for Borbely who heads to Turkey.

 

 

 

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A great month, and all of a sudden we're 12 points clear at the top.

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March 2037

 

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The gap spreads out to 11, but that's not the result to take from this. We've beaten Manchester United, the reigning champions, the Premier League leaders, in a year where Old Trafford is hosting the final. The best result in this save so far!
 

 

 

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We face another team from Manchester in City, who are 2nd in the EPL at the moment. But this is unchartered territory for us so I don't care how we go.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We have a tough group, but we get off to the best start possible. Bulgaria have also made their presence felt after defeating France 2-0.

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On 23/07/2022 at 05:19, shaunvamos said:

 

You have to create a dummy row at the where all attribute values are 17 to find the value you're looking for to use in each role :) 

Thanks, I've had a go at incorporating all the sums in one single formula and managed to get it working which is great. 

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2037 Preseason

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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A big transfer as Rikki Beazley joins United for a club record 22.5m. Joke's on them though, he can't grow any more :lol: 

 

 

 

Transfers (In)

 

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The usual recruitment drive in terms of numbers, with 3 Scottish internationals (McGregor, Rankin & Brown) joining the club. Rankin is the headline signing, considered a wonderkid and only 19.

 

 

 

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The Premier League is still too expensive for us to look there, so hopefully these guys carry on their form from the previous season.

 

 

 

Striker

 

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Rankin is the sole player from this recruitment drive starting in the first XI to start the season, and he is excellent!

 

 

 

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Sevilla were the only "elite" team we played, and we handled them really easily.

 

 

 

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Let's meet those expectations!

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