Striker efficiency

[Xeewaj Q.]

EPL, season 2019-2020:

(I should've set Charlie as a penalty taker...)

What we have in terms of efficiency (all values are in £; green = best, red = worst):

 

It's easy to see that expensive guys' goals cost at least x4 more (I used game-calculated value, real can be much more) than a not-so-expensive guy. Finances aside, his efficiency in terms of goal/90 or goals/shots is better too. I spent a few hours on choosing the right striker for my team and looks like I made the right choice. Another interesting thing: no dumbrunners (speed/dribbling) among leaders, only all-rounder pressing/complete forwards.

P.S. some people may say "who cares about money, especially in EPL", but expensive guys' teams finished lower.

[KLT9888]

Fantastic research! It's for these reasons that I'm a little peeved the shortlist stats haven't been updated so I can compare potential purchases against one another. Have you found a way around that? 

 

[iAlwaysWin]

what is it your trying to show? that man utd should ditch lukaku and go with austin upfront and save a ton of money? what about how these goals are scored and how important each goal was....if am going into a c.l final am taking lukaku over austin despite of your research.

austins goal return is relative to the team you are ,nothing more , nothing less, no disrespect to norwrich fans

[Xeewaj Q.]

23 minutes ago, KLT9888 said:

Fantastic research! It's for these reasons that I'm a little peeved the shortlist stats haven't been updated so I can compare potential purchases against one another. Have you found a way around that? 

 

There is "Keep scout reports up to date" option at the top of shortlist area, but often I do it manually.

[Xeewaj Q.]

1 minute ago, iAlwaysWin said:

what is it your trying to show? that man utd should ditch lukaku and go with austin upfront and save a ton of money? what about how these goals are scored and how important each goal was....if am going into a c.l final am taking lukaku over austin despite of your research.

I'm trying to show that you don't need to spend a lot of money to get a solid performer.

[iAlwaysWin]

Just now, Xeewaj Q. said:

I'm trying to show that you don't need to spend a lot of money to get a solid performer.

depends how big a stage you want them to perform on, you haven't really read my point have you.

[KLT9888]

@Xeewaj Q. I think you’re misunderstanding what I meant. 

 

If you save people to shortlist on FM 19 and set it up so you can see their detailed stats, they’re wrong. The dribbles per game for some people are at 9, which is obviously incorrect. 

 

Ive already reported it as a bug and it’s noted, but I’m guessing you didn’t notice? Or how did you go about conducting your research to settle on a striker? 

[isignedupfornorealreason]

5 minutes ago, Xeewaj Q. said:

I'm trying to show that you don't need to spend a lot of money to get a solid performer.

 

Isn't it actually stated in moneyball books (or whatever) that strikers are over-valued anyway? 

[Xeewaj Q.]

5 minutes ago, iAlwaysWin said:

depends how big a stage you want them to perform on, you haven't really read my point have you.

I did, but you didn't read my opening message to the end too (harsh truth is that both Lukaku and Kane will not play in the CL next season 'cause they team finished too low). Also, selecting line-up by value and not considering form, guesses about consistency and important matches is absolutely wrong.

[Xeewaj Q.]

24 minutes ago, KLT9888 said:

@Xeewaj Q. I think you’re misunderstanding what I meant. 

 

If you save people to shortlist on FM 19 and set it up so you can see their detailed stats, they’re wrong. The dribbles per game for some people are at 9, which is obviously incorrect. 

 

Ive already reported it as a bug and it’s noted, but I’m guessing you didn’t notice? Or how did you go about conducting your research to settle on a striker? 

0_0 didn't notice that, but I didn't see anything horribly wrong too. My method (from most important to less):

• injury history
• teamwork, workrate, determination and personality description (I love "Model Citizens")
• guess about hidden attributes, especially consistency and important matches
• other stats, anthropometry (no midgets!), left/right foot (no one-footed)
• traits (no stupid traits like "cuts inside" for a striker)

Stats generally are not that important, 'cause the target is now playing for a bad team with a stupid winger tactic and if signed, he'll play for a good team (mine) with a great tactic (mine too).

So, basically, I look for consistent, mentally strong hard-working team players, not "geniuses".

[Xeewaj Q.]

36 minutes ago, isignedupfornorealreason said:

 

Isn't it actually stated in moneyball books (or whatever) that strikers are over-valued anyway? 

It's true. Overrated both in value and contribution to team success. But some funny people can't understand that buying neymars and mbappes for crazy money will not make them favorites for the Champions League.

[KLT9888]

I like when people find players overlooked based on statistical analysis...then buy them for cheap and they do well on their own team. Rather than focusing on purchasing expensive, well-known players and losing money because their performances are only average-slightly above average. 

 

That's why I thought you had looked at statistics prior to selecting the striker and got excited! although your method isn't bad either...I just thought you had meant you analyzed statistics of various strikers before settling on that one and now he's performing better than high paid strikers.

[Xeewaj Q.]

26 minutes ago, KLT9888 said:

I like when people find players overlooked based on statistical analysis...then buy them for cheap and they do well on their own team. Rather than focusing on purchasing expensive, well-known players and losing money because their performances are only average-slightly above average. 

 

That's why I thought you had looked at statistics prior to selecting the striker and got excited! although your method isn't bad either...I just thought you had meant you analyzed statistics of various strikers before settling on that one and now he's performing better than high paid strikers.

It's not always possible though. As just promoted team I had very limited options, and most targets were transfer-listed and rarely played (Austin, for example, played only 9 matches in 2018-2019) so there was really nothing to analyze. If I can't make a decision, of course, I look at stats, if there is something to look at. Also, if I unsure, I try to loan players and see how they'll do.

[MBarbaric]

Just one question, what is the most common goal type he scores?

[Xeewaj Q.]

5 minutes ago, MBarbaric said:

Just one question, what is the most common goal type he scores?

First-time shot from the penalty area (tactic is focused on goals like that). There are no per player stats, but you can guess it from team stats:

 

[RandomGuy.]

I always forget to do it, but can you compare analyst reports between players in the same way you can compare scout reports?

I know there's a "stats" bit inntebscput report, right enough, but analyst report could bring more to the table.

[Svenc]

This is an interesting way to look at it.  I'd argue this as a test of true value its already drawn a tad moot as one forward was managed by AI, the other by a human manager. Does Charlie Austin generally score that much, even managed by AI? He does not. We already know that human managers can far outperform AI, no matter who that forward is. Some don't of course, so the "AI is cheating them". Duh. If this is meant to show that you don't need the most expensive forwards to have them scoring, it's valid!

It's still not fully  conclusive yet, as over single seasons, there is a signifcant amont of chance involved even in real football. Goal tallys oft don't repeat, as it oft takes but a few freak matches, such as Lewandowski against all odds scoring a whopping 5 goals within 10 minutes, to produce different results. On FM's level of AI programming in particular, I'd finish at least the 2nd and 3rd Prem seasons, as traditionally, you are going to be facing more defensive opposition with Norwich than when you started out after some overperformance. Similar to all teams overperforming in a league, you are going to be taken more serious on average. More defensive opposition means less space for forwards -- the think Kane and Spurs face from the start.

Additionally; forwards are used differently. A forward can actually underperform at 25 goals per season (last season CR7), whilst overperforming at 12. How is that? CR7, in parts as he is tactically made such a focal point of his teams (his partner Benzema's primary role is to drop deep to provide space for his), has a whopping 7 attempts per match (your average forward has around 2, Kane at Spurs in real football has 5). We also know that the AI has never made forwards such a focal point of attacks during the season. You can actually manually insert columns into the squad screens whether they do such and how they compare to yours (overall shots per 90 minutes, arguably a better indicator than merely the shots going on target. At such an edge in SOT, Kane may be still running away of the pack here though.

[phnompenhandy]

I bet you're winning your Fantasy Premier League too

[MBarbaric]

9 ore fa, Xeewaj Q. ha scritto:

First-time shot from the penalty area (tactic is focused on goals like that). There are no per player stats, but you can guess it from team stats:

 

I meant how are goals created. through ball, cross, direct pass over the defence... 

Also, I've noticed you scored 6 overhead kick goals in 50 matches, you must have Ibra on steroids in your squad

[Svenc]

4 minutes ago, MBarbaric said:

I meant how are goals created. through ball, cross, direct pass over the defence... 

Also, I've noticed you scored 6 overhead kick goals in 50 matches, you must have Ibra on steroids in your squad

Hahah true that.

 

That said, he may be good in focusing on first time shots. Pretty much any finishing study argues them to basicall handicap the keeper a way generally one on ones (in particular with the forward having to run a distance) don't. Why is that? First time shots give the keeper no much time to react. Whereas a forward running accross the pitch, or taking the additionally two, three touches in general, gives him added time with each touch the forward takes. Would be interesting though if first time shots in general are too easyish to get on target as of FM. After all, the flipside of taking a shot first time is that the forward doesn't attempt to trap and control the ball befire firing it -- hopefully on target...

[Xeewaj Q.]

1 hour ago, phnompenhandy said:

I bet you're winning your Fantasy Premier League too

Not yet. What are you trying to say?

[Xeewaj Q.]

1 hour ago, MBarbaric said:

I meant how are goals created. through ball, cross, direct pass over the defence... 

Also, I've noticed you scored 6 overhead kick goals in 50 matches, you must have Ibra on steroids in your squad

I never saw any overhead goals and I watched every match and every single goal. I remember ONE overhead attempt, it hit the crossbar of course. Must be a bug.

Assist stats:

"Corners" are center-backs goals, they scored exactly 15 total.

[Xeewaj Q.]

3 hours ago, Svenc said:

This is an interesting way to look at it.  I'd argue this as a test of true value its already drawn a tad moot as one forward was managed by AI, the other by a human manager. Does Charlie Austin generally score that much, even managed by AI? He does not. We already know that human managers can far outperform AI, no matter who that forward is. Some don't of course, so the "AI is cheating them". Duh. If this is meant to show that you don't need the most expensive forwards to have them scoring, it's valid!

It's still not fully  conclusive yet, as over single seasons, there is a signifcant amont of chance involved even in real football. Goal tallys oft don't repeat, as it oft takes but a few freak matches, such as Lewandowski against all odds scoring a whopping 5 goals within 10 minutes, to produce different results. On FM's level of AI programming in particular, I'd finish at least the 2nd and 3rd Prem seasons, as traditionally, you are going to be facing more defensive opposition with Norwich than when you started out after some overperformance. Similar to all teams overperforming in a league, you are going to be taken more serious on average. More defensive opposition means less space for forwards -- the think Kane and Spurs face from the start.

Additionally; forwards are used differently. A forward can actually underperform at 25 goals per season (last season CR7), whilst overperforming at 12. How is that? CR7, in parts as he is tactically made such a focal point of his teams (his partner Benzema's primary role is to drop deep to provide space for his), has a whopping 7 attempts per match (your average forward has around 2, Kane at Spurs in real football has 5). We also know that the AI has never made forwards such a focal point of attacks during the season. You can actually manually insert columns into the squad screens whether they do such and how they compare to yours (overall shots per 90 minutes, arguably a better indicator than merely the shots going on target. At such an edge in SOT, Kane may be still running away of the pack here though.

Oh, I'm not trying to say that real-world Kane is not good enough and Austin is better. I'm speaking only about in-game representations.

And AI is quite weak in FM, true, (at least compared to players with some experience), in my team Kane would've scored 40 or more.

As for forwards usage, my tactics have a pair of Complete Forward/Support and they do a lot of dirty work. Generally, I'm happy with 10-15 goals per season for first-team strikers. Also, shots per 90 is not a good indicator in my case 'cause strikers often stretch opposition defense by going wider then cross to box-to-boxes.

[Xeewaj Q.]

1 hour ago, Svenc said:

Hahah true that.

 

That said, he may be good in focusing on first time shots. Pretty much any finishing study argues them to basicall handicap the keeper a way generally one on ones (in particular with the forward having to run a distance) don't. Why is that? First time shots give the keeper no much time to react. Whereas a forward running accross the pitch, or taking the additionally two, three touches in general, gives him added time with each touch the forward takes. Would be interesting though if first time shots in general are too easyish to get on target as of FM. After all, the flipside of taking a shot first time is that the forward doesn't attempt to trap and control the ball befire firing it -- hopefully on target...

That's exactly why I bought him: