My Harry Kane finishing problem

[Deo]

I've started a journeyman game recently, and I've had quite some success on it where I became Wolves' manager on my third season, won the championship that year and did a miracle run the next year where I won the EPL. My top player that year was Wissam Ben Yedder with 23 goals in 37 games as an astonishingly good finisher. After the season ended though I decided that I achieved everything I wanted at Wolves, and realistically would want to move to a bigger club. City and LFC rejected me, but the best club in my save, Bayern, decided to get me on a three year deal. And they had Harry Kane on the team.

With half the season done, I'm first on goal difference in a league I should be steam rolling, and my biggest problem is Harry Kane's finishing. I honestly don't get why a player like him with 19 finishing, 17 composure and 17 concentration would miss so many clear cut chances. He's missed countless sitters and shoots so often way outside the goal, and I just don't really know what to do about it besides benching him. But he's really good at getting to those chances, far better than any of my other strikers bar Lewa who's been injured for 4 months now. Anybody knows what I can do about it? Here's some stats for comparison. One is Ben Yedder from last season, the other one is Kane this season:

 

[Svenc]

If he's played a central forward, the overall shot conversion looks suspiciously low, though not quite as low as Ronaldo from September to January RL (100 shots, 15+ xG for 4 actual goals, two of which a penalty/rebound), but as FM doesn't simulate that (never seen it), it would be somewhat tactical. I.e. The average amount of chances Kane gets aren't that good, and you overrate them (the less said about the clear cuts the better...) There's little other way to get suspicous shot conversion, traditionally. There's a slight opportunity that you are triggering a balancing "issue", i.e. triggering a chance type that should be converted at much higher rates but isn't. But you need to have that type over and over  to have this sub par shot conversions.

So 1) Tactical. 2) Slight opporunity of a bug connected to 1), as tactics influence what kind of chances you get over and over. Don't forget that tactics also incoroporate traits and PPMs a player has (shoots at every opportunity, runs into the opposition area, etc. etc.). The good news is that it's usually an easy fix, as having decent conversion is no magic in this game, but mostly rather common sense.

[Tom8983]

Hes' getting almost half of his shots on target. I'm not really sure what more you want from him, they sound like decent stats!? Saying that, he's had only 91 shots in 20(4) matches. that's what, 3.5 shots per game, including long shots? Sounds to me like the problem isn't his finishing, it's the lack of opportunities you're creating for him. 

https://www.premierleague.com/players/3960/Harry-Kane/stats

You'll see here that his real life shooting accuracy is 45%. Your only real cause for complaint can be the shots on target to goals ratio which is much lower than IRL. I imagine that has something to do with the long shots problem you mentioned, which does tie in to getting creative/supporting players around him high up the pitch. If he has no passing option, he's more likely to shoot. If you have the team mentality on attacking or control, he's more likely to shoot than if it was counter/standard. So I'd be looking at my tactics and creative players.

[Deo]

39 minutes ago, Svenc said:

If he's played a central forward, the overall shot conversion looks suspiciously low, though not quite as low as Ronaldo from September to January RL (100 shots, 15+ xG for 4 actual goals, two of which a penalty/rebound), but as FM doesn't simulate that (never seen it), it would be somewhat tactical. I.e. The average amount of chances Kane gets aren't that good, and you overrate them (the less said about the clear cuts the better...) There's little other way to get suspicous shot conversion, traditionally. There's a slight opportunity that you are triggering a balancing "issue", i.e. triggering a chance type that should be converted at much higher rates but isn't. But you need to have that type over and over  to have this sub par shot conversions.

So 1) Tactical. 2) Slight opporunity of a bug connected to 1), as tactics influence what kind of chances you get over and over. Don't forget that tactics also incoroporate traits and PPMs a player has (shoots at every opportunity, runs into the opposition area, etc. etc.). The good news is that it's usually an easy fix, as having decent conversion is no magic in this game, but mostly rather common sense.

 

Well, looks like Kane's having a Ronaldo half-season for me then. Here's hoping he has a second half just like Ronaldo hehe.

He's playing CF for me in a front two, as a false nine. Might be that his role is hampering him, but the quality of chances he's getting is really good man, trust me. Most of his good shots come from inside the penalty area but they're mostly straight at the keeper or hitting the post. There's an analysis tab for him where I can see all the shots he's taking, but only for each match so I can't overlay them all in one graph, else I would show you.

It could be the PPM's though. His are Shots from Distance and Shoots with Power. Most of his misses are because he doesn't slot them in but tries to blast them in. Not sure if I can train that out of him though. I have Martial on my team too who has a Places Shots PPM and plays as an Inside forward from the left. His stats are 66 shots, 33 in target and 16 goals, much better than Kane's. It could definitely be the PPM's, but I do have to play the rest of the season out I think to know for sure.

 

33 minutes ago, Tom8983 said:

Hes' getting almost half of his shots on target. I'm not really sure what more you want from him, they sound like decent stats!? Saying that, he's had only 91 shots in 20(4) matches. that's what, 3.5 shots per game, including long shots? Sounds to me like the problem isn't his finishing, it's the lack of opportunities you're creating for him. 

https://www.premierleague.com/players/3960/Harry-Kane/stats

You'll see here that his real life shooting accuracy is 45%. Your only real cause for complaint can be the shots on target to goals ratio which is much lower than IRL. I imagine that has something to do with the long shots problem you mentioned, which does tie in to getting creative/supporting players around him high up the pitch. If he has no passing option, he's more likely to shoot. If you have the team mentality on attacking or control, he's more likely to shoot than if it was counter/standard. So I'd be looking at my tactics and creative players.

He's getting real good chances man, that's not the problem. And yes, the problem is his on-target-conversion rate. From the IRL stats, his is 40% which is what you expect form a good striker, but in my game it's 18%. I would definitely agree if most of his shots were from far away, but they aren't, honestly. I just can't overlay all his shots in one graph to show you. As I've said above though, now I suspect it's because of his PPMs.

[Deo]

Okay found a semi-decent way to stack the shots (Via Photoshop). So as not to clutter the graph too much, I removed the goals and shots blocked, so you can only see the shots saved, shots wide and shots on the post. I think they're pretty quality chances, aren't they?

[Nacaw]

The quality of chances were no doubt higher for Wissam Ben Yedder, than for Harry Kane. First of all, Bayern faces more defensive tactics than Wolves, meaning even if it looks like they are shooting from the same range, there's going to be more defenders around Kane. The False nine is also a bad role for him, he will drop deeper and be more likely to shoot outside the area. While he CAN hit some good longshots, IRL last PL season Harry Kane only scored 3 goals out of 30 from outside the box, with 5 shots per 90 min.

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/83532/Show/Harry-Kane

[Deo]

4 minutes ago, Nacaw said:

The quality of chances were no doubt higher for Wissam Ben Yedder, than for Harry Kane. First of all, Bayern faces more defensive tactics than Wolves, meaning even if it looks like they are shooting from the same range, there's going to be more defenders around Kane. The False nine is also a bad role for him, he will drop deeper and be more likely to shoot outside the area. While he CAN hit some good longshots, IRL last PL season Harry Kane only scored 3 goals out of 30 from outside the box, with 5 shots per 90 min.

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/83532/Show/Harry-Kane

Yeah but as you can see from the graph above, he's having really good chances. Just look at all the chances around the 6 yard box. I expect him to finish most of those man...

[Nacaw]

5 minutes ago, Deo said:

Yeah but as you can see from the graph above, he's having really good chances. Just look at all the chances around the 6 yard box. I expect him to finish most of those man...

That's not a good way to judge the quality of a chance. 

 

It could be a header with 3 defenders around him. Where from the same position it's a tap in or 1vs1 for  Ben Yedder.

[Deo]

25 minutes ago, Nacaw said:

That's not a good way to judge the quality of a chance. 

 

It could be a header with 3 defenders around him. Where from the same position it's a tap in or 1vs1 for  Ben Yedder.

But those are not chances man, those are shots on target. Doesn't matter if he's surrounded by three defenders or not, those are shots he's getting onto the target. The problem is they're getting saved too often, which means he's not bypassing the keeper as often as a striker of his caliber should.

[Nacaw]

8 minutes ago, Deo said:

But those are not chances man, those are shots on target. Doesn't matter if he's surrounded by three defenders or not, those are shots he's getting onto the target. The problem is they're getting saved too often, which means he's not bypassing the keeper as often as a striker of his caliber should.

 

A shot on/off target = a chance  Shots in this case also includes headers, which can help explain why he's missing some close-range chances. Ben Yedder is unlikely to win a lot of headers, so even if his shots are from further out, his overall chances can be of better quality. I'm trying to explain to you, that a map of where he took shots from, doesn't necessarily show if the chances are of a high quality or not. 

[Deo]

2 hours ago, Nacaw said:

A shot on/off target = a chance  Shots in this case also includes headers, which can help explain why he's missing some close-range chances. Ben Yedder is unlikely to win a lot of headers, so even if his shots are from further out, his overall chances can be of better quality. I'm trying to explain to you, that a map of where he took shots from, doesn't necessarily show if the chances are of a high quality or not. 

You know what I meant mate. I meant not just chances, but good chances. Sitters. I know what I'm seeing.

But anyway, it's pretty irrelevant now, for some reason after the German winter break he decided to score 9 goals in 3 games. Fcking Harry Kane...

[Snorks]

Aren't Shots on Target shots that would hit the target if not influenced in any other way?

Defenders blocking it, deflections, GK saves etc can all happen with a 'Shot on Target' once it's left the shooters boot/head/chest/backside.

THerefore, he can have a hundred shots on target but if there are 10 players between him and the goal, they are most likely going to be blocked.

[Deo]

Nah man, shots on target either on in or are saved by the keeper. Blocked shots are counted separately and are counted towards the total shots, but not as shots on target.

[Svenc]

On 19/06/2018 at 17:20, Deo said:

Well, looks like Kane's having a Ronaldo half-season for me then. Here's hoping he has a second half just like Ronaldo hehe. He's playing CF for me in a front two, as a false nine. Might be that his role is hampering him, but the quality of chances he's getting is really good man, trust me. Most of his good shots come from inside the penalty area but they're mostly straight at the keeper or hitting the post. There's an analysis tab for him where I can see all the shots he's taking, but only for each match so I can't overlay them all in one graph, else I would show you. It could be the PPM's though. His are Shots from Distance and Shoots with Power.

Some combos may always inflate the shot counts slightly and thus rub off on the (overall) conversion. Ronaldo isn't exactly reknown for being shy of shooting either, which is why over the course of his career (history), his tally is about 1 goal in 6 attempts. There's not a player in top European football who takes this much. In determining the quality make sure that: the shots within range aren't mostly set piece based affairs (headers under pressure in packed boxes mostly) and try to gauge how things are analyzed in football. I doubt FM has it accurate, but there is evidence SI try to base their match play on the same studies that goes into stuff like that.  General public perception is different, and decades of punditry/commentary is much to blame. It may appear ridiculous to put an exact number on each chance, but under the hood the game is all Maths. I've never seen prolonged streaks like that in-game where I personally would consider a forward to have that much quality. Don't be fooled by a forward scoring a fistful over two matches, as that can be entirelly down to flukes / what was going on in that specific match. Consistenly having better chances means forwards will score a few, and not go on a hiding of like 15 matches. On FM, that typically just doesn't happen.

[MagicHat]

30 out of 136 is about right... a world class striker scores about 20-25 percent of shots.

 

30 out of 136 is 22 percent conversion, in real life last season he scored 30 in 184 shots mate

[MagicHat]

oh yeah thats bed yadder sorry... yeah those kane stats seem a bit off. maybe change his player role/player instructions and warn him for poor performance.