Ethan13 Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 I really don't know how that worked. A player with a CA of 143 is defiantly not worth that money. I think that proves that the transfers need to be worked on before the next game comes out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thebaker Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 I really don't know how that worked. A player with a CA of 143 is defiantly not worth that money. I think that proves that the transfers need to be worked on before the next game comes out. I don't know about that as sometimes the best players are not the one's with the best ca or attributes. I've often had inferior player who out perform players who are clearly better but don't perform, maybe due to mental attributes? You would have to look at the player history to see what he has done. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
aka.arrogantio Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 tbh 82 million is the sort of money that is spent on obviously established world elite players. Nobody spends that kind of money on Aaron Lennon on a spurt of form, no matter how good that form is. Francis Jeffers is about the most expensive low ability flop (different from "unable to fit into the system" flop) I can think of, and he cost less than an eighth of that. It's a fair bet that a player with a CA of 143 is inferior to virtually all the many players in the 175+CA range over the course of the century, no matter how much his consistency, mentality and attribute balance might help him overperfom against players in the 150-160 range. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Trust me, this transfer made no sense in any way you looked at it. If you want to know how bad it was, just take a look at Paul Robinson in game and imagine someone paying 82 Million for him. It makes even less sense since United basically let him leave for free earlier in the game and Southampton only spent 700k on him one year before. He did go one to earn a handful of England caps as I believe he did get reasonably close to his PA (making him about as good as Manuel Almunia). This transfer demonstrates one of the big flaws that I have uncovered in this long term game as goalkeepers just are not developing right and leaving a shortage for the elite teams. My screenshots from 2108 show only one keeper among the top 40 or so players in the world, even thought there are five in the top PAs. Looking at the teams screenshots: Barcelona has two player in the 140s, with their number one being 34. Juventus are in decent shape with two good keepers. Real Madrid have one guy at 158. Inter's top keeper is at 156. Valencia can choose between CAs of 142 and 137. AC Milan are lucky to have a guy at 163. Lyon have one at 154. Bayern has no keepers over the age of 20, with CAs of only 86 and 75, although I would assume that they in the process of getting a new one or two. A look at the Premier League teams shows about the same trend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thepathtoamen Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Got to agree with Ethan. although you do have to take into account inflation..... :-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 I am going to start to post the Blackburn regen data based on what league they were in during the intake. The first group is Premier League players. I will post the players by PA first. The first column is PA, then CA, then the difference. Then I will post by CA, with PA and then CA in the columns. The average PA of these players was 118.4, with an average CA of 59.1 and average difference of 59.3. PA CA Diff 182 78 104 179 81 98 172 71 101 168 95 73 168 80 88 167 118 49 166 95 71 165 94 71 163 75 88 159 69 90 158 73 85 157 113 44 155 84 71 154 69 85 154 85 69 154 73 81 153 74 79 153 74 79 152 70 82 152 84 68 151 65 86 151 61 90 151 86 65 150 69 81 150 62 88 150 70 80 144 60 84 144 80 64 143 62 81 143 78 65 142 95 47 139 58 81 138 57 81 137 62 75 136 60 76 136 64 72 135 66 69 135 66 69 135 74 61 134 60 74 134 56 78 133 57 76 133 56 77 132 57 75 132 78 54 131 50 81 131 64 67 130 53 77 130 53 77 130 49 81 130 69 61 130 55 75 129 51 78 129 59 70 128 52 76 128 56 72 128 62 66 128 56 72 128 50 78 127 52 75 127 48 79 126 53 73 125 51 74 125 68 57 124 51 73 124 54 70 124 46 78 124 45 79 123 77 46 123 60 63 122 79 43 122 52 70 122 57 65 122 48 74 121 60 61 120 49 71 119 37 82 119 60 59 119 54 65 119 63 56 119 56 63 118 43 75 117 45 72 117 52 65 117 47 70 116 47 69 116 43 73 116 46 70 116 60 56 115 43 72 115 81 34 115 49 66 114 53 61 113 56 57 113 58 55 113 75 38 113 48 65 113 62 51 113 48 65 112 59 53 112 57 55 111 56 55 111 50 61 111 49 62 111 61 50 110 57 53 110 49 61 109 59 50 109 52 57 108 59 49 107 45 62 107 48 59 107 50 57 107 50 57 107 45 62 107 50 57 106 53 53 106 58 48 105 46 59 105 58 47 105 66 39 104 68 36 104 60 44 104 39 65 104 70 34 103 47 56 103 51 52 102 60 42 101 61 40 99 43 56 98 52 46 98 81 17 97 85 12 97 45 52 97 68 29 97 57 40 96 52 44 95 54 41 94 45 49 94 61 33 93 58 35 93 67 26 93 46 47 92 39 53 91 49 42 90 57 33 90 36 54 89 39 50 88 61 27 88 58 30 87 41 46 86 38 48 85 45 40 82 41 41 77 45 32 73 55 18 71 55 16 71 51 20 64 51 13 63 48 15 61 45 16 60 52 8 55 43 12 55 35 20 53 45 8 PA CA 167 118 157 113 142 95 166 95 168 95 165 94 151 86 97 85 154 85 155 84 152 84 98 81 115 81 179 81 168 80 144 80 122 79 182 78 132 78 143 78 123 77 113 75 163 75 153 74 153 74 135 74 154 73 158 73 172 71 150 70 152 70 104 70 154 69 150 69 159 69 130 69 97 68 104 68 125 68 93 67 135 66 135 66 105 66 151 65 136 64 131 64 119 63 150 62 137 62 143 62 128 62 113 62 88 61 94 61 101 61 151 61 111 61 134 60 119 60 136 60 121 60 102 60 123 60 104 60 144 60 116 60 112 59 108 59 109 59 129 59 139 58 105 58 113 58 106 58 93 58 88 58 138 57 122 57 110 57 132 57 133 57 112 57 90 57 97 57 113 56 111 56 128 56 134 56 128 56 133 56 119 56 73 55 71 55 130 55 124 54 95 54 119 54 130 53 130 53 126 53 106 53 114 53 96 52 127 52 98 52 128 52 122 52 109 52 117 52 60 52 129 51 124 51 71 51 125 51 103 51 64 51 131 50 111 50 107 50 107 50 107 50 128 50 111 49 91 49 130 49 110 49 120 49 115 49 127 48 107 48 113 48 113 48 63 48 122 48 116 47 117 47 103 47 105 46 116 46 124 46 93 46 97 45 107 45 117 45 94 45 53 45 85 45 61 45 77 45 124 45 107 45 116 43 118 43 115 43 99 43 55 43 87 41 82 41 89 39 92 39 104 39 86 38 119 37 90 36 55 35 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 That was 165 regens for Blackburn in the Premier League. Today I will do the PAs and CAs again, this time for the Championship regens. There were 130 of them with an average PA of 109.2, an average CA of 52.6, and an average difference of 56.6. By PA: 179 100 79 177 80 97 165 70 95 164 78 86 159 76 83 155 75 80 153 84 69 153 72 81 152 71 81 152 84 68 149 72 77 146 71 75 145 71 74 145 81 64 143 66 77 139 60 79 138 60 78 137 80 57 136 55 81 136 57 79 135 55 80 135 62 73 135 85 50 135 50 85 134 83 51 134 44 90 134 46 88 133 62 71 132 55 77 132 46 86 132 58 74 132 52 80 131 57 74 130 50 80 130 55 75 129 53 76 129 50 79 128 55 73 128 52 76 127 54 73 127 45 82 126 47 79 125 55 70 124 53 71 124 46 78 123 60 63 120 49 71 120 64 56 119 47 72 119 35 84 118 43 75 118 51 67 117 47 70 116 74 42 116 52 64 116 46 70 116 46 70 115 37 78 114 49 65 114 42 72 113 61 52 113 44 69 113 47 66 112 65 47 112 56 56 112 46 66 112 42 70 110 56 54 110 41 69 109 46 63 109 53 56 109 47 62 108 40 68 108 45 63 107 57 50 107 38 69 107 44 63 106 46 60 106 48 58 105 62 43 105 39 66 103 51 52 103 35 68 102 50 52 101 58 43 100 63 37 99 41 58 99 62 37 98 89 9 97 41 56 96 40 56 95 60 35 95 40 55 94 60 34 94 40 54 91 35 56 91 40 51 90 59 31 90 40 50 89 41 48 87 40 47 86 42 44 84 40 44 84 47 37 82 46 36 81 48 33 80 34 46 80 33 47 79 44 35 78 30 48 78 34 44 76 50 26 75 43 32 74 40 34 74 30 44 73 41 32 72 52 20 69 63 6 66 64 2 57 48 9 56 48 8 55 38 17 54 49 5 52 44 8 51 40 11 50 40 10 46 41 5 43 40 3 43 43 0 40 40 0 By CA: 179 100 98 89 135 85 153 84 152 84 134 83 145 81 137 80 177 80 164 78 159 76 155 75 116 74 149 72 153 72 146 71 145 71 152 71 165 70 143 66 112 65 66 64 120 64 100 63 69 63 133 62 105 62 135 62 99 62 113 61 95 60 123 60 138 60 94 60 139 60 90 59 101 58 132 58 107 57 131 57 136 57 110 56 112 56 135 55 136 55 128 55 132 55 125 55 130 55 127 54 129 53 124 53 109 53 116 52 72 52 128 52 132 52 103 51 118 51 129 50 130 50 76 50 102 50 135 50 120 49 114 49 54 49 57 48 106 48 81 48 56 48 119 47 117 47 84 47 126 47 109 47 113 47 109 46 134 46 124 46 82 46 106 46 132 46 116 46 112 46 116 46 127 45 108 45 134 44 113 44 79 44 52 44 107 44 118 43 43 43 75 43 114 42 86 42 112 42 89 41 73 41 99 41 46 41 97 41 110 41 43 40 94 40 108 40 84 40 96 40 95 40 51 40 74 40 90 40 87 40 40 40 91 40 50 40 105 39 107 38 55 38 115 37 91 35 119 35 103 35 80 34 78 34 80 33 78 30 74 30 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 131 regens were produced while Blackburn was in League One. The average PA was 108.4 with an average CA of 48.9 and an average difference of 59.5. Interestingly, the two highest PAs came during this time. By PA: 189 87 102 185 80 105 169 72 97 164 76 88 161 69 92 158 78 80 155 81 74 155 71 84 154 69 85 152 78 74 152 65 87 149 68 81 140 63 77 139 64 75 139 55 84 138 55 83 138 56 82 137 59 78 137 59 78 136 60 76 136 55 81 135 54 81 133 53 80 132 56 76 132 58 74 131 60 71 130 55 75 129 43 86 129 51 78 128 53 75 127 51 76 126 56 70 126 41 85 126 55 71 125 48 77 124 43 81 123 72 51 123 40 83 123 49 74 121 46 75 121 45 76 118 49 69 118 44 74 118 49 69 118 56 62 117 45 72 117 47 70 116 44 72 116 44 72 115 47 68 115 50 65 115 68 47 115 34 81 115 42 73 115 46 69 114 40 74 114 45 69 114 43 71 114 46 68 114 53 61 114 47 67 113 45 68 112 46 66 111 44 67 111 41 70 110 49 61 110 53 57 110 40 70 110 47 63 109 45 64 109 46 63 109 46 63 109 43 66 107 44 63 106 71 35 106 43 63 105 33 72 104 44 60 103 43 60 101 41 60 101 39 62 101 44 57 100 45 55 100 47 53 100 48 52 99 40 59 99 44 55 96 60 36 96 45 51 96 42 54 96 48 48 95 42 53 95 40 55 94 37 57 94 49 45 93 34 59 93 57 36 92 40 52 91 45 46 91 37 54 91 45 46 90 41 49 88 70 18 86 44 42 85 36 49 81 42 39 81 47 34 81 40 41 79 41 38 76 26 50 76 40 36 75 49 26 75 40 35 74 40 34 74 42 32 73 42 31 72 40 32 72 43 29 69 31 38 67 40 27 65 45 20 64 40 24 64 44 20 59 38 21 58 23 35 58 40 18 55 44 11 52 40 12 52 41 11 50 40 10 37 34 3 By CA: 189 87 155 81 185 80 152 78 158 78 164 76 123 72 169 72 106 71 155 71 88 70 154 69 161 69 115 68 149 68 152 65 139 64 140 63 136 60 96 60 131 60 137 59 137 59 132 58 93 57 126 56 132 56 118 56 138 56 138 55 139 55 136 55 126 55 130 55 135 54 128 53 110 53 114 53 133 53 127 51 129 51 115 50 75 49 110 49 118 49 94 49 118 49 123 49 125 48 100 48 96 48 115 47 117 47 81 47 100 47 110 47 114 47 109 46 121 46 112 46 109 46 115 46 114 46 100 45 117 45 109 45 91 45 114 45 65 45 96 45 113 45 121 45 91 45 116 44 55 44 111 44 118 44 86 44 104 44 99 44 107 44 101 44 116 44 64 44 129 43 72 43 124 43 114 43 106 43 103 43 109 43 95 42 81 42 73 42 74 42 115 42 96 42 126 41 90 41 79 41 52 41 111 41 101 41 114 40 74 40 99 40 92 40 64 40 72 40 52 40 81 40 76 40 75 40 110 40 58 40 50 40 123 40 67 40 95 40 101 39 59 38 91 37 94 37 85 36 115 34 93 34 37 34 105 33 69 31 76 26 58 23 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted July 31, 2009 Author Share Posted July 31, 2009 Blackburn produced 66 regens while in League Two. The average PA was 111.8 with an average CA of 49.3 and an average difference of 62.5. They are listed below: By PA: 171 98 73 166 74 92 156 59 97 156 61 95 156 68 88 154 74 80 144 75 69 142 65 77 139 57 82 137 54 83 137 59 78 137 55 82 137 56 81 136 58 78 136 50 86 135 51 84 133 56 77 133 57 76 131 42 89 130 47 83 130 50 80 124 48 76 121 57 64 121 50 71 119 50 69 117 51 66 116 44 72 115 43 72 115 47 68 115 50 65 114 48 66 113 35 78 113 72 41 112 50 62 112 47 65 111 53 58 110 50 60 110 46 64 109 47 62 108 44 64 107 39 68 105 49 56 104 38 66 103 41 62 101 49 52 101 40 61 98 41 57 97 42 55 97 41 56 96 33 63 94 40 54 92 46 46 91 37 54 88 42 46 84 41 43 84 36 48 78 37 41 78 40 38 75 37 38 75 36 39 74 40 34 72 45 27 66 66 0 59 30 29 55 47 8 33 20 13 By CA: 171 98 144 75 166 74 154 74 113 72 156 68 66 66 142 65 156 61 156 59 137 59 136 58 121 57 133 57 139 57 133 56 137 56 137 55 137 54 111 53 135 51 117 51 112 50 130 50 115 50 110 50 121 50 119 50 136 50 105 49 101 49 114 48 124 48 115 47 112 47 55 47 109 47 130 47 92 46 110 46 72 45 108 44 116 44 115 43 97 42 88 42 131 42 103 41 97 41 84 41 98 41 94 40 78 40 74 40 101 40 107 39 104 38 78 37 75 37 91 37 75 36 84 36 113 35 96 33 59 30 33 20 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 26 regens came from the Blue Square Premier for Rovers. The average PA was 106.9 with an average CA of 45.5 and average gap was 61.4. They are listed here. By PA: 169 81 88 156 67 89 138 50 88 136 52 84 134 49 85 130 48 82 123 48 75 113 43 70 113 45 68 111 50 61 107 45 62 107 40 67 105 44 61 103 44 59 102 43 59 100 44 56 100 43 57 98 47 51 98 41 57 97 40 57 96 40 56 84 47 37 83 25 58 76 35 41 54 38 16 47 34 13 By CA: 169 81 156 67 136 52 111 50 138 50 134 49 130 48 123 48 98 47 84 47 113 45 107 45 105 44 100 44 103 44 113 43 100 43 102 43 98 41 96 40 107 40 97 40 54 38 76 35 47 34 83 25 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan13 Posted August 1, 2009 Share Posted August 1, 2009 Are the CA's that are being posted the highest the players reached or their starting CA? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 2, 2009 Author Share Posted August 2, 2009 Their starting CA. Can you imagine the amount of work it would take to find everyone's peak? That is beyond what even I would want to do. A recap of these posts: There were 165 regens while in the Premier League. The average PA of these players was 118.4, with an average CA of 59.1 and average difference of 59.3. The highs and lows were 182 and 53 for PA and 118 and 35 for CA. There were 130 Championship regens with an average PA of 109.2, an average CA of 52.6, and an average difference of 56.6. The highs and lows were 179 and 40 for PA and 100 and 30 for CA. 131 regens were produced while Blackburn was in League One. The average PA was 108.4 with an average CA of 48.9 and an average difference of 59.5. The highs and lows were 189 and 37 for PA and 87 and 23 for CA. Blackburn produced 66 regens while in League Two. The average PA was 111.8 with an average CA of 49.3 and an average difference of 62.5. The highs and lows were 171 and 30 for PA and 98 and 20 for CA. 26 regens came from the Blue Square Premier for Rovers. The average PA was 106.9 with an average CA of 45.5 and average gap was 61.4. The highs and lows were 169 and 47 for PA and 81 and 25 for CA. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamilton162 Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 rovers - How many more posts of analysis are there going to be? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 2, 2009 Author Share Posted August 2, 2009 That is actually the last of the analysis that I have already finished. I hope to do a little bit more including those player development graphs that I have been talking about. My next step is probably recap-type posts discussing what I have found out about some of the stuff that I have been tracking from the beginning. I would also like to write some narrative on the goings-on of the experiment to sort of create an encyclopedia of the main events and people of the experiment. I think that there will be enough material to run us up to the demo of FM10 at least. If anyone has ideas on data they want to see, I will see what I can do to produce it. I am relatively busy right now, so a lot of that stuff will be coming later in the month. For today I will list the master list of nationalities that popped up in order of appearance. I am separating the single and dual nationalities from the triple nationalities since I suspect that the threes are a mixture of the other possibilities. England Wales England England Angola England Australia England Cape Verde England Egypt England Macedonia England Ireland England Italy England Ivory Coast England Morocco England N. Ireland England Nigeria England Norway England Russia England Scotland England South Africa England St. Vincent England Turkey England USA England Uganda England Wales Nigeria England Anguilla England England Denmark England DR Congo England Gambia England Ghana England Hong Kong England Jamaica England Seychelles England Sri Lanka England Sweden France Ghana England Holland Italy N. Ireland New Zealand England Nigeria England Scotland Scotland China Wales England Croatia England Poland England Tanzania Equitorial Guinea England England Latvia England Cambodia St. Lucia England DR Congo England England Bulgaria England Guinea-Bissau England Holland England Malawi England Saudi Arabia Mexico England Portugal England Cyprus England Israel England Mauritius England Pakistan Spain Ireland England Albania England China England Zimbabwe Norway Turkey England Australia England DR Congo England England Canada England Iraq England Kenya England Sudan Wales Germany England Singapore England Luxembourg England Brazil Luxembourg Sweden England Zambia Wales USA England Swaziland England Tajikistan Greece Czech T&T England England Barbados England Austria Israel England England Ukraine England Bangladesh Russia England England Romania Cameroon England China England Croatia England Costa Rica England England India Portugal Serbia England England Portugal England Burundi Guatemala England Jamaica England England Maldives Germany Turkey Senegal England Germany Ghana England Malta Ivory Coast England Belarus England Brazil England Wales Yemen England Thailand USA England England Kuwait Panama England Malta Argentina England Spain Basque Ukraine England England Turkmenistan Tunisia England Canada England England Libya England Tunisia England Nepal England Japan Denmark England Kazakhstan England Togo Hong Kong Ireland Romania Wales Hong Kong England Laos Saudi Arabia England South Africa England Cape Verde England Belgium Iran England Triples: England N. Ireland Italy England Ireland Turkey England Scotland Ghana England N. Ireland Turkey England Ireland N. Ireland England Scotland USA Wales Somalia England England Ireland Australia England Nigeria Jamaica England Scotland N. Ireland England South Africa USA England N. Ireland Nigeria England Wales Australia England Scotland China England Ireland Scotland England Hong Kong Ireland England Scotland Wales England USA Australia England Nigeria Australia England Wales Turkey England Scotland Jamaica England Jamaica Australia Wales Hong Kong England Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Bestie7 Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 Rovers, A truly amazing thread and one I just spent the entire afternoon reading. One thing I have to say though is looking at the way the transfers occurred and remembering how FM08 was do you think that something in the code needs to be worked on for future games? I'm talking really about teams like Arsenal (especially when Wenger is still in charge) going out and spending 20m+ on two or more players in one season. Chelsea and Real Madrid are the anomalies when it comes to the real game, even Man City are "sort of" controlling their spending by looking to spread out their costs over a number of players. Yet constantly we've seen it in the game that as long as someone has the money they're perfectly fine spending insane amounts of money, and it seems to happen to EVERY club that gets a decent amount of cash built up. I'd love to know your thoughts on the matter. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 3, 2009 Author Share Posted August 3, 2009 It seems that every version has new kinds of transfer problems. The problem here seems to be that once the AI identifies a player, it will pay whatever asking price is set as long as it has the money. Looking at the example of the 81 Million Pound transfer from this game, it seems like United identified an area of need, found a player to fill it, then just went out and paid the amount that Southampton demanded. In reality, they should be evaluating a number of players for the position to find the best value. On the other hand, as long as good players are moving, the transfers could be justified. Manchester United were a lot smarter in spending 71 Million on Eros Asara. Out of the top transfers, players like Aaron Clifford, Slavisa Memic, Andrey Sorokin, Wayne Bates, Josh Bowater, Sergio Aguero, and Garry Robertson were pretty good moves. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 4, 2009 Author Share Posted August 4, 2009 It is time to start recaps for the major components of the experiment to summarize all of the findings that have resulted from all of this data gathered over 100 game years. These are the messages that can be applied to all games of FM that you play. First up is regen nationalities: Default Nationalities: FM09 has about the same amount of other nationality possibilities that FM08 did for English teams, but there is definitely a large difference in the number of those regens that occur. FM08 had a much larger number of UK regens that were not only English. The amount of English regens has increased from approximately 70-75% in FM08 to 90-95% in FM09. If you are like me and enjoy getting a variety of nationalities from your youth setup, this is a major disappointment. Here is a brief breakdown of the changes. Increased: Africa (not including West Africa) Eastern Europe Indian Subcontinent Saudi Arabia Approximately the same: USA Australia Hong Kong West Africa (Nigeria, Ghana, DR Congo, Ivory Coast) Caribbean Italy and Turkey Wales (due to Welsh-based clubs) Decreased: Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Republic of Ireland Scandinavia Staff/Scouting Knowledge Regens: One of the things that people always want to know is if they can do anything to alter the nationalities of players coming through their youth. The answer is that your scouting knowledge does have an impact on some level, but do not expect regens that are unusual in nationality every year. There seem to be about 5-10 regens per year that are not naturally occuring, so no more than one percent are based on knowledge. I have had two players in my England-based games that did not make this list (Aruba/England and New Caledonia/France) so the scouting knowledge in your games could certainly create unique nationality regens. One other thing to note is that no players without EU nationality are ever generated, unlike teams in real life, who do take in players that will need a work permit before they can move from a youth to professional contract. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 5, 2009 Author Share Posted August 5, 2009 Your Youth System: In observing both Blackburn's regens and those of the High PA players, I was able to gain a lot of insight into the quality of player that teams will be able to bring through. I know that many FM fans enjoy bringing a large number of their own youth players. It is pretty clear from this experiment that you are not going to be a able to build as good of a team with your own youth as with the regens of the world as a whole. Of course players below 170 CA can become great players, like England and Portsmouth central defender Yaron Va'ankin in this experiment, but that is a baseline for the starting outfield players at top clubs. The distribution of High PA regens basically shows that no single team is dominant in bringing through top quality players. Manchester United were dominant through large portions of the game but did not bring through the most at this level. Studying Blackburn's regens as they moved up and down the leagues, quality is definitely affected by the league level, probably related to team reputation. The CA of those players was affected more strongly than PAs. The two highest PAs generated were from Blackburn's League One period. Sunderland once got two 170+ PA players while at that level and Merthyr brought through a player while they were at the bottom of the playable period. Just like in real life any team can bring through the next star. The biggest change to regens seems to be the starting CAs and their relationship to PA. This thread is full of examples of player well above the 100 CA mark with some up to 130 or more at the age of 16. I chose 90 as a benchmark for high CA players because no players in FM08 were generated at this mark. It is clear that a larger number have now been generated to start at a decent level. CA and PA also seem to have less correlation now. I have some examples early in the thread of players with great starting CA who have less than stellar growth potential due to a low PA. I also believe that this better represents real-life player development. Overall, starting CAs and PAs have definitely been tweaked in a more realistic way for FM09. There is a lot more variety in youth players. The player with early promise may fade out or become a wonderkid. Some players need more development to reach their peak. There is a lot more guesswork with youth than just figuring out who starts in the game at the highest ability level. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 6, 2009 Author Share Posted August 6, 2009 Young Players Becoming Stars: Tracking High PA players for their growth and development has been very interesting. The key stat is Professionalism. Players with high professionalism will grow in almost any situation with any amount of first team action. If you want your young players to reach their potential, you may need to find them a tutor who can improve that attribute. A young player can grow up to about 15 CA per year with the potential for a little more. Playing at the right level and amount will help development, so loans do work. For English players, the top divisions in Ireland and Scotland can increase ability pretty significantly as long as the players get the time. Players grow from about 17 to 25 at the highest rate. Players do not seem to gain any advantage by starting out at age 15 as the first year or two can be slow. I would suspect that players grow more once they sign a professional and not youth contract. Once they reach 25, players generally stop growing with the exception of goalkeepers and players who are still very far away from their PA. For those concerned about the effect of specific training, players who reach their world-class potential will generally be pretty good. Of course you can shape them with individual training, but the game does create star players with a pretty good spread of attributes. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 7, 2009 Author Share Posted August 7, 2009 Long Term Financials: Accurate financial models for this type of game are incredibly difficult to manage. This version of the game seems to generally avoid the problems in past versions where every club sits on massive piles of cash. In this game, the teams that have the money have been successful for long periods of time and build the biggest stadiums around. One of the largest differences in this version of the game is the increased difficulty in expanding stadiums. I do not know whether this has to do with better data on expansion capacities (Ewood Park was almost a 90,000 seater in my FM08 and on the Blackburn board we were discussing the parking and infrastructure consequences of more than tripling our average attendance) or whether planning permission has simply been made harder to get. Takeovers can have large effects on club fortunes. Following Blackburn, we have seen two takeovers that involved a decent injection of cash (it did not help the incompetent parts of the club). The stadium and takeover bits remind me of a complaint that a number of people have voiced about FM. The probabilities that govern these events seem to be taken from a small sample of English clubs. As a result, the problems associated with these events can be transmitted to other countries. A number of English clubs are having trouble with stadium plans, but is planning permission different in other countries? The other problem is that these numbers are somewhat static. As a suggestion, I would propose that, like in real life, awarding a major international to a country should lead to some modifications to existing stadiums or new ones being builty. Does anyone not think that England winning the World Cup bid would get some of these projects off the ground in a hurry? Overall the financial model in the game is very good for most clubs. The mega-stadium clubs do seem to stockpile cash at an obscene rate. They do spend it, but they collect it so quickly. Manchester United can generate nearly 100 Million in season ticket sales alone in good years. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
small Mac Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Good work roversawh7. Do you have any intention on examining the link between youth player quality and club reputation? I would also say from what i can see that FM09 is better than 08 in producing higher PA players given top class youth facilities. For example, i tested 30 youth updates for Barca on FM08 and they produced only 3 players with a PA above 160, the highest being 170. This is very poor that Barca wouldn't produce one potentially top class player in 30 years. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 8, 2009 Author Share Posted August 8, 2009 Between the list of clubs producing high PA regens and following Blackburn's regen production as they moved up and down the leagues (a good proxy for reputation) it seems pretty clear that high rep clubs consistently perform better regens. This is not only their ability to produce top quality players, but also their players in the middle and the worst regens. Clubs with lower reputation still do have some, highly realistic possibility of creating star players. The problem with FM08 was regen quality across the board and not just at top clubs. The number of elite level PAs has probably doubled or tripled in one version. I am sure that Barcelona had better regens than other Spanish clubs during those 30 years tested. Youth production, with the exception of nationalities, has improved dramatically for this version. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 9, 2009 Author Share Posted August 9, 2009 I have a few longer recap post left including what I found out by tracking Blackburn. Does anyone have any ideas on topics that they want to explore in greater detail from the perspective of long-term games? I have a lot of data and information stored up from the game, so I can answer a large number of questions that you may have. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 9, 2009 Author Share Posted August 9, 2009 Following a Club: Tracking Blackburn for so many years was a very interesting view into what happens to AI run clubs. Rovers constantly dealt with adversity from the very start of the game, losing a number of good managers as soon as they had any form of success. Eventually the club could not do enough to stay in the Premier League for more than a year at a time. Low attendances doomed the club in the Championship and administration followed by relegation brought the team down even lower. The club was a subject of a number of takeovers late in our 100 years and had the money but not the skill to make the move back up. One of the matters of interest in tracking the AI is seeing what happens when the board needs to bring in new managers. Blackburn had 45 different managers in the 100 years, which basically shows some of the long-running problems at the club. Rovers, like many other clubs seemed to prefer out of work managers who had recently lost their jobs at other clubs of similar stature. This strategy seems to work in bringing in stability, but plenty of those managers are downright awful and end up out the door before long. Bringing in up and coming managers from teams lower down the leagues was good for short-term success, but ultimately Blackburn suffered from a large number of their best managers being signed away by clubs even higher up the leagues. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamilton162 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Rovers - I have a question. What percentage of high PA regens (170+) were formed at non-league clubs? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thebaker Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Rovers - I have a question. What percentage of high PA regens (170+) were formed at non-league clubs? i'm guessing only 1 or 2 actual regens, more seem to be unattached (6) so it will be a tiny percentage. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest arrogantio Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Overall the financial model in the game is very good for most clubs. The mega-stadium clubs do seem to stockpile cash at an obscene rate. They do spend it, but they collect it so quickly. Manchester United can generate nearly 100 Million in season ticket sales alone in good yearsI'd have thought that clubs being obscenely profitable was probably a bad thing.... not many clubs can boast that, and if they did then transfer and wage inflation and shareholders (or predatory investors like the Glazers and Hicks/Gillett) would eat them up.The game also produces players with elite potential far more often than the starting database (although I think the end numbers just about balance because of the number with horrible professionalism and/or starting ability/club) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 11, 2009 Author Share Posted August 11, 2009 Rovers - I have a question. What percentage of high PA regens (170+) were formed at non-league clubs? i'm guessing only 1 or 2 actual regens, more seem to be unattached (6) so it will be a tiny percentage. I have no real idea considering that I did not track based on league, but definitely the guy from Merthyr. Other possibilities were the ones from Alfreton, Wycombe, or Carlisle. I'd have thought that clubs being obscenely profitable was probably a bad thing.... not many clubs can boast that, and if they did then transfer and wage inflation and shareholders (or predatory investors like the Glazers and Hicks/Gillett) would eat them up.The game also produces players with elite potential far more often than the starting database (although I think the end numbers just about balance because of the number with horrible professionalism and/or starting ability/club) In real life I am sure than teams have more to spend their money on than in the game, where facilities can only get so good and no AI teams hires a large staff. None of the teams spend all that much which allows them to grow their stockpiles and the large cash reserves deter potential takeovers. The game does produce more high potential players than the starting database, but it you gave the real players the largest PA that they have ever had, I am sure the numbers would be more similar as researchers start to drop the PAs of the players with poor professionalism or other growth issues. The final product is a set of players that are about as good as the real players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 12, 2009 Author Share Posted August 12, 2009 Player Decline: Players now take much longer to decline than they have in the past. Wingers can start their decline by 31 or 32, but other positions can keep going at their peak for several more years. Goalkeepers can last even longer than that as they can be very good at 36 or even 38. Players decline very rapidly, ranging from about 17-22 CA per year, faster than they develop as youth. An interesting finding is that players cannot decline more than 100 CA below their PA. That means that a 199 PA player could be a top-level non-league player almost indefinately. It is very difficult to determine whether a top player will retire early as the decline starts or later after a long career in the lower leagues. Players in foreign leagues do seem to retire earlier as I would guess that not having those leagues loaded means that they retire once they are no longer good enough to start for that team. Along with not having discernible attributes for player retirement, there is no way to tell whether or not a player will become staff after retirement. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ceching You Out Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 A quick back of the envelope calculation (I'm using dollars since it's my native currency, although the ratio holds regardless) -- If the top transfer in 2009 was ~$25 million, that same transaction in 2109 would be: $67.6 million @ 1% inflation per year $181.1 million @ 2% inflation per year $480.5 million @ 3% inflation per year So if the real top transfer in 2109 was ~$82 million, we could hazard a guess that inflation was approximately ~1.25% or so in game (which would inflate that $25 to ~$86). Not an outrageous rate of inflation, although it does ignore any effect of the club's potentially stockpiling money, a developing scarcity at certain positions, etc. None of which is to say that the top transfer fee being paid on a middling CA player makes more sense, just that the fee isn't as extreme when you take into account inflation. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 13, 2009 Author Share Posted August 13, 2009 I believe that the game's financial model is built to ignore inflation since it is already complicated enough. This year's model is much better in this regard then it was in the past, where excess money entered the game and inflated everything. As I was saying in an earlier post, there are some big money transfers that were worth the money. Manchester United spent 71 Million (the second highest transfer) on a player who became a true club legend. This one big transfer stands out because of how poor the player really is, goalkeeper crisis or not. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 13, 2009 Author Share Posted August 13, 2009 International Selection: As you may have noticed, I tracked England team selections and caps, especially for major tournaments. Here are some of the things that I have noticed. There are problems with integrating players into formations that are not very typical for the country. England played with some different formations, like a 3-5-2 and 5-3-2 that meant that some of the best players did not fit in. This led to such situations as the James Blake problem, where one of the best players in the world was not appearing for his country because they did not play with wingers. Along with ability level, player reputation within the country was very important for selection. That meant that some good players who spent most of their time abroad, even at top clubs, did not appear as much as they should have. The use of reputation also means that players were generally retained in the England setup after breaking through, even though more talented players often emerged and surpassed them in ability. This helped keep some older players in the England team even as they declined. The other thing that I noticed was that young players who were developing quickly often got their first caps at a lower CA than for other players. Finally I would like to reiterate how lucky Wayne Rooney is to have SI keep track of records in the method that they do. He ended up with 69 goals for England. Two players, both of which also played for Manchester United, Aaron Clifford and Josh Bowater also reached the 69 goal mark. Because he was first to that mark, he still holds the record even though the other two did it in far less caps (about 65 for Clifford). If anyone has played or used my final 2108 save at all, I would like to know if Chelsea's Garry Robertson got around to breaking the 70 goal mark. He was at 62 and age 32 when the experiment ended. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 14, 2009 Author Share Posted August 14, 2009 English Clubs vs the Rest of the World: This year's version of FM is much better at creating a realistic world in regards to active and non-active leagues. Last year, the English clubs all got weaker and started faltering in Europe, dropping as far as 5th in the UEFA Coefficients. This year there were a good number of European competition wins from English clubs as well as other players. Looking at the CAs of the players at all of these clubs as we did earlier in the thread, the ability levels are similar, while the English clubs enjoy a bit more depth as they have active reserve teams and make more moves in the transfer window. One of the similarities is that reputation of English clubs does decline over time relative to other clubs. This seems to be the result of their failures at domestic competitions, which the other European clubs are not being penalized for. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 16, 2009 Author Share Posted August 16, 2009 I will be starting a number of encyclopedia-type posts on various people, clubs, and other tidbits from the experiment. If you have any ideas of what you want to hear more about, I would like to know which entries you may want to see first. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Bestie7 Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Anything and everything about Manchester United, of course! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 17, 2009 Author Share Posted August 17, 2009 Of course their 13 straight titles and massive stadium deserve a writeup. Their massive transfers also played a huge part in the game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thebaker Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 could you perhaps showcase how some other clubs have done, such as some teams who started unplayable and have risen up the leagues, some of the premiership sides in the last few years you coverered started very low down. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamw Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Might be interesting to see how Southampton spent the £82 million Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roversawh7 Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Those are both good ideas. I hope my computer can take loading up the final game so that I can check those. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.