olivetti Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Recently I have become interested in what affects youth intake. I've done a few experiments, trying to test the relevance of the size and attraction of the city, or size of the region, for youth intake. These other variables are a bit harder to isolate, so I might only share the results when I have better information. By testing two clubs in the same city, though, I have come to the conclusion that Youth Importance is quite relevant for youth intake. Method: — The experiment was done by saving the game one day before the German youth intake date, and reloading the game once I had information about the youth intake. — I only looked at regens with a PA rating of 150 or more from Bayern Munich and 1860 Munich. — I altered the clubs' reputation to 9999, their Youth Recruitment, Facilities and Coaching to 20. — I also maxed the relevant attributes of their Head of Youth Development. — the clubs were kept in their current divisions (1st and 4th) — Bayern's Youth Importance is 15 and 1860 Munich's is 20. — I produced 29 'years' of regens. Perhaps more tries would give a more precise result. If you believe that I have missed an important factor and that thus I did not isolate Youth Importance, please tell. Results: (Take note: it's actually >149, >159, etc.) As you can see, 1860 Munich produces double the amount of high-quality regens, despite the fact that all relevant factors apart from Youth Importance are equal. The Average PA is only a calculation considering the >150 regens, so it doesn't show that that BM actually has a higher average PA. Somebody with a deeper knowledge of statistics could explain it much better than I, but it has to do with the shape of the bell curve. What do you guys think? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
herne79 Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 I'll give @Seb Wassell a quick poke here, might be of interest? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nacaw Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 4 players with 149+ PA, on average each season for 1860? That is truly crazy numbers. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neotropolis Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Stupid question. How do you find your club's 'youth importance'? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
olivetti Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Nacaw said: 4 players with 149+ PA, on average each season for 1860? That is truly crazy numbers. Yes, but... 5 hours ago, olivetti said: — I altered the clubs' reputation to 9999, their Youth Recruitment, Facilities and Coaching to 20. — I also maxed the relevant attributes of their Head of Youth Development. — the clubs were kept in their current divisions (1st and 4th) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
olivetti Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 Just now, Neotropolis said: Stupid question. How do you find your club's 'youth importance'? It's a hidden attribute. You can find it in the editor (not the in-game one). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neotropolis Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 1 minute ago, olivetti said: It's a hidden attribute. You can find it in the editor (not the in-game one). Righty. That would make sense. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nacaw Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 14 hours ago, olivetti said: Yes, but... Apart from 9999 reputation, those are all relatively easy to achieve in normal gameplay. It would be interesting to investigate further how much of an impact club reputation has on youth intake. Those numbers you just showed would suggest a ton more than anticipated. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
olivetti Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 On 08/06/2018 at 10:56, Nacaw said: Apart from 9999 reputation, those are all relatively easy to achieve in normal gameplay. It would be interesting to investigate further how much of an impact club reputation has on youth intake. Those numbers you just showed would suggest a ton more than anticipated. I'm not entirely sure if I see this as that insane. If you consider world class club, with the best possible youth intake, academy and that highly values youth ('youth importance'), that doesn't seem so crazy. These numbers are better than Barcelona's at the start of the game, for example. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nacaw Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 4 hours ago, olivetti said: I'm not entirely sure if I see this as that insane. If you consider world class club, with the best possible youth intake, academy and that highly values youth ('youth importance'), that doesn't seem so crazy. These numbers are better than Barcelona's at the start of the game, for example. No matter the context, 4 potential first-team players on average per season for 29 seasons is seriously out of whack. No club, present, past or future will achieve that. IRL, how many players of 150 PA has Barca's world-famous academy produced in the last 10 years? Bayerns average of 2 per season, while still too high for RL, is much more in line with the general expectations in FM. To really test this variable especially, you'll need the same conditions, but 1 and 20 respectively on each club. Obviously a higher N is preferred, but there could also be other limiting factors here. While Munich isn't a small city, it could be running low on talent pool for 2 giant clubs. You could repeat experiments with a smaller or larger city, change the affluence of the city and see what these change. Same with Germany's population in general. Other possible sources of omitted variable bias (off the top of my head): International affiliations, the nationality of the managers, the nationality of the chairmen. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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