Overall number of chances created

[MrZollo]

I have just finished my first season on FM19, I managed Fiorentina to 5th spot, just outside of the Champions League spots. I'm really pleased with the way that we played and I'm looking to improve upon that next season.

At various points in the season, I've been looking through different stats to see if my tactic is working the way that I'd like it too. We're having success scoring goals in the right areas, assisting goals in the areas that I'd like. The way we attack is varied and all three front men (Chiesa, Muriel and Simeone) have been contributing goals and assists. Overall, I'm fairly happy.

I skipped FM18 so this may have been answered previously but I've been wondering what determines 'a chance'. As you can see in my screenshot, Valentin Eysseric who has been on loan at Nantes creates a lot of them. More than my front three put together in fact. The good news is he's coming back next season, the bad news is that I assume he won't create so many in my tactic. Am I reading too much into the stat? I think 'number of chances created' is a nice way to determine who successful your tactic is. Especially as we don't have xG in FM yet. 

I'd be interested to see how many chances your teams produce over a season? I wonder if there's a link between this and how effective the tactic could be. 

 

 

[Rashidi]

17 minutes ago, MrZollo said:

The good news is he's coming back next season, the bad news is that I assume he won't create so many in my tactic. Am I reading too much into the stat? I think 'number of chances created' is a nice way to determine who successful your tactic is. Especially as we don't have xG in FM yet. 

I use my own model called SIBOT, which is the total number of shots i create inside a box which are not from set pieces. I did an analysis of this myself. xG can have as many as 300000 points of reference, so i doubt SI will ever incorporate that into the game because its too resource intensive. I have asked them to simplify stats and may ask again in case it got lost in the multitude of new features being asked each year.

Personally speaking all anyone should bother with is determine how many good chances they can generate inside the box, and even then you need to quantify good chances. I've already explained the model on the forums so won't revisit it. I know that for my Liverpool side I don't care about in game stats, all i am counting in my head are the number of shots they take inside the box, cos i know for every 3 inside the box one is always a good chance and can be converted. I even have vs top 5, vs middle group vs bottom 6 sides comparison as well. So against top sides i tend to create more quality chances than i would against lower sides. All this information is available in the game, issue is we need to do our own game by game analysis, so you end up being another analyst in the game. Its a lot of work, eventually you start generating a feel for it.

[summatsupeer]

There's a lot to keep in mind when comparing players, not just the system he plays in but the quality around him vs the quality of the opposition. They might have very open attacking games due to the teams style vs standing in the league whilst teams might be more defensive against you so harder to create space for a chance.

I used to be obsessed by CCC and half chances but when you see some of the things it counts or doesnt count I stopped caring so much. I've seen blocked shots be classed as a CCC which doesnt make sense at all whilst a wide open CMs shot from inside the edge of the box wasn't even a half chance.  I do like @Rashidi and look more at shot location that weren't not blocked.  Then consider if the players are good at converting that type of chance (head, foot, composed etc).

[SD]

1 hour ago, MrZollo said:

I skipped FM18 so this may have been answered previously but I've been wondering what determines 'a chance'. As you can see in my screenshot, Valentin Eysseric who has been on loan at Nantes creates a lot of them. More than my front three put together in fact. The good news is he's coming back next season, the bad news is that I assume he won't create so many in my tactic. Am I reading too much into the stat? I think 'number of chances created' is a nice way to determine who successful your tactic is. Especially as we don't have xG in FM yet.

From my experience the chances stat is unreliable and I don't pay much attention to it.

For me as well the shots pattern is the most important thing to look at, not just their location as in inside vs outside the box, but also wide vs central, number of blocked shots, how many of them are at the end of a cross or which players are taking them.

[Experienced Defender]

On 09/04/2019 at 15:18, summatsupeer said:

I used to be obsessed by CCC and half chances but when you see some of the things it counts or doesnt count I stopped caring so much. I've seen blocked shots be classed as a CCC which doesnt make sense at all whilst a wide open CMs shot from inside the edge of the box wasn't even a half chance

Exactly the same is my experience. So rather than relying on nominal in-game statistics, I prefer to analyze the quality of chances (both mine and of the opposition) by going into the team analysis section of a given match and then watch highlights of all shots from within the penalty area to see which of these actually were good chances.