What determines the tendency of a player's development?

[talhak]

As we are all aware that the tendency of a player's development varies from each other. Some players' develop physically while some others develop technically. Similarly, aging does not affect all players affect in the same way. Some players' physical abilities prominently drop while others (almost) not. For example, Cristiano Ronaldo is physically as good as almost his prime time despite his age. But Rooney is not like him. 

 

So how can we determine the tendency of a player for both development & aging?

Thanks in advance for your contribution.

[herne79]

Short answer is, you can't be completely certain.

Longer answer, there are many different factors which will play a part.  Your facilities and coaching staff; injuries and/or injury proneness; your own development plan; a players' natural fitness and personality; playing time; your training plan once a player reaches his peak.  When it all comes together it's a great feeling, but there is always a chance something may happen to upset the apple cart no matter how good your plans are.

[talhak]

Yes @herne79, I am aware of all these factors but I am asking how do you conclude that "this player can physically improve a lot" or "I do not think his physical attributes will improve but he will technically improve a lot" etc with looking his profile & scout reports. Scout reports just say his great attributes and his potential. But in which way this potential will become evident? What is the player's general (characteristics) development tendency apart from what we train him?

[herne79]

If you are talking about developing young players, then that is 100% down to you and how you choose to train them.  I'll caveat that slightly by saying young players will physically develop (to an extent) naturally over time, which you can influence.

Any young player can physically improve a lot, or technically improve a lot, or even both (potential ability allowing of course).  How they improve is down to your training plan.  There is nothing that says "this guy is someone you should look to develop physically".  Perhaps some young players may get a higher starting point in certain attributes than others, which may lead you to a particular training plan for them, but there is nothing to stop you changing a young centre back into a Target Man if that's how you see them.  Gareth Bale started life as a left back for example.

How do you conclude how to start training them?  Look at their attributes, consider what tactical system you use and how they may be able to fit into it.  Be aware of key attributes a player will ultimately need as well - a young right winger with a crossing attribute of 2 will take an awful lot of training to become proficient, whereas it may be more beneficial to retrain a striker whose crossing is 11 but finishing is 2.  There is no right or wrong here, just your own eyes and what type of players you need for your system.

[talhak]

@herne79, let me give you some examples to detail what I am asking:

* Anthony Martial has a great PA in FM16. Can we turn him into a good central defender even though we arrange a train schedule on him that focuses on defending with great training facilities & coaches? (Assume he regularly plays & does not have many injuries)

* Sergi Samper is another wonderkid in the game. His acceleration & pace is 8, 11 respectively. If we set his training to improve his quickness, can these attributes turn into 20, 20 or 18+, 18+? I mean when they will not increase anymore.

* Ante Coric's strength is 7, and has a great PA. So if we train him to improve his strength, how much his strength will improve?

 

I give these examples to mention that players' developments must have some player specific limits apart from PA.

[Sherdil]

5 hours ago, talhak said:

@herne79, let me give you some examples to detail what I am asking:

* Anthony Martial has a great PA in FM16. Can we turn him into a good central defender even though we arrange a train schedule on him that focuses on defending with great training facilities & coaches? (Assume he regularly plays & does not have many injuries)

* Sergi Samper is another wonderkid in the game. His acceleration & pace is 8, 11 respectively. If we set his training to improve his quickness, can these attributes turn into 20, 20 or 18+, 18+? I mean when they will not increase anymore.

* Ante Coric's strength is 7, and has a great PA. So if we train him to improve his strength, how much his strength will improve?

 

I give these examples to mention that players' developments must have some player specific limits apart from PA.

From my experience playing several seasons (20++), it seems that higher stats are prioritized. Stats related to primary position is also prioritized. Let me explain...

High PA 16yr old Striker: pace 8, acceleration 11, finishing 13

This dude once he reaches his peak (25yrs old) will have pace 12, accelaration 14, finishing 18.

High PA 16yr old Defender: tackling 14, heading 8, marking 12

This dude once he reaches his peak (27yrs old) will have tackling 18, heading 12, marking 15

What this shows is that starting stats are very important and will more likely determine the growth. So, Anthony Martial cannot become a good central defender simply because his starting stats as a defender are low.

[talhak]

@Sherdil this is also what I believe, what it should be. So I asked for a confirmation from officials. You mentioned that starting stats are very important, which makes sense but this is also what needs a confirmation too.

[herne79]

Starting stats are just that, a starting point.  They don't determine growth - you the Manager with your training plans and so on determine growth.  That growth is only limited by a player's defined potential.

What the starting stats (and position and PPMs) do is give you a basic indication of the type of role and position you could target a player for within your system.  Would it be a good plan to turn Martial into a central defender? No of course not, he already has well developed attributes to succeed in an attacking role - however, which attacking role is up to you.

In the Samper and Coric examples given above, theoretically yes they could achieve 18+ quickness and high strength if you train them appropriately - but then you may not get a well rounded individual who'll do well in the role you want him to perform because you have been specifically targeting those areas for development.

8 hours ago, talhak said:

I give these examples to mention that players' developments must have some player specific limits apart from PA.

No.  The only specific limit is PA.  Use a player's starting attributes as a guide, but always have an end goal in mind for the type of player you want to fit into your system.

[Ceching You Out]

19 hours ago, herne79 said:

Starting stats are just that, a starting point.  They don't determine growth - you the Manager with your training plans and so on determine growth.  That growth is only limited by a player's defined potential.

Is the bolded part entirely true, though? I believe there is a significant portion of player development that is outside the manager's control. Going back to experiments on here years ago (so of course things may have changed since), there was something akin to archetypal development. Training was the controllable aspect -- trimming the tree so to speak -- but players had a natural attribute progression as well.

I agree that the initial attributes are just a starting point, although in my opinion they do tend to reflect a player's archetype. It's not an exhaustive list, but DCs could be bruising or finesse and attribute growth would naturally gravitate towards the respective attributes. Training could mitigate or redirect some of that growth, and players were varyingly malleable.

I don't think that undermines your general points though. There are no hard-coded limits (just tendencies that make it more difficult). Guide players' attributes towards the role you want them to fulfill. 

[herne79]

Yeh, I've mentioned in previous responses about young players developing naturally (to an extent) over time.  Physical attributes especially.  I'm just answering further points now .

[Ceching You Out]

Fair enough. I hadn't seen it explicitly mentioned (or I missed it) so figured I'd call it out since I spent way too much of my life on those SFraser threads back then. To bring it back around to one of the OP's questions and sum up:

On 8/28/2016 at 05:32, talhak said:

So how can we determine the tendency of a player for both development & aging?

There are two components -- (1) your training, facilities, etc. and (2) natural growth. You'll more or less control (1), but (2) follows a template that's not visible. In my experience, natural growth is a little more likely to increase attributes that already stand out. That's far from definitive though and subject to a lot of confirmation bias; often the opposite occurs as well.

Since the OP also mentions developing Martial to DC or the like, it's also worth mentioning that it can be very difficult if you're fighting a player's natural growth or start too late in their career. I can get more into the rationale if you're interested, but the takeaway is that generally you want to avoid rowing against a strong current. In my opinion, FM really gets this aspect right.