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The BIG Switcheroo Experiment


TheEarl

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The Earls BIG Switcheroo Experiment

 

So I decided to write on a story here. It could just at much have been a savegame report or under the Experiment section, but I decided to have a go at the story section. (If admin wants to move its fine)

 

What will all this be about? Well most of you have surely heard about Switcher Experiment before, and mostly been done with the English league structure. I decided to take it further and switch a lot of leagues. But for those of you who haven't heard about it before I will explain by using the English league structure as an example.

 

I used the data editor and swapped the starting leagues for all the teams in the original database (down to National League North/South). So that the teams start in the following divisions:

Premier League: Margate, Havant & Waterlooville, Basingstoke Town, FC United of Manchester, Worcester City, Telford United, Bradford Park Avenue, Hayes & Yeading United, Wealdstone, Gainsborough Trinity, Lowestoft Town, Eastbourne Borough, Bath City, St Albans City, Brackley Town, Hednesford Town, Chelmsford City, Weston-super-Mare, Corby Town, Gloucester City (Teams ranked by season preview)

Sky Bet Championship: Ebbsfleet United, Stockport County, Sutton United, Whitehawk, Fylde, Solihull Moors, Maidenhead United, Nuneaton Town, Harrogate Town, Oxford City, Tamworth, Bishop's Stortford, Hemel Hempstead Town, Alfreton Town, Boston United, Dartford, Maidstone United, Gosport Borough, Truro City, Curzon Ashton, North Ferriby United, Concord Rangers, Staybridge Celtic, Chorley

Sky Bet League 1: Eastleigh, Tranmere Rovers, Cheltenham Town, Forest Green Rovers, Grimsby Town, Gateshead, Dover Athletic, Lincoln City, Bromley, Woking, Wrexham, Braintree, Halifax Town, Chester, Boreham Wood, Macclesfield Town, Barrow, Southport, Guiseley, Altrincham, Kidderminster Harriers, Aldershot Town, Welling United, Torquay United

Sky Bet League 2: Leyton Orient, Portsmouth, Oxford United, Notts County, Luton Town, Stevenage, Cambridge United, Plymouth Argyle, Northampton Town, Carlisle United, Wycombe Wanderers, Yeovil Town, AFC Wimbledon, Exeter City, Morecambe, York City, Accrington Stanley, Bristol Rovers, Mansfield Town, Dagenham & Redbrigde, Barnet, Newport County, Hartlepool United, Crawley Town

Vanarama National League: Wigan Athletic, Millwall, Sheffield United, Walsall, Coventry City, Bradford City, Peterborough United, Doncaster Rovers, Barnsley, Scunthorpe United, Burton Albion, Oldham Athletic, Gillingham, Bury, Chesterfield, Port Vale, Rochdale, Southend United, Fleetwood Town, Swindon Town, Blackpool, Shrewsbury Town, Crewe Alexandra, Colchester United

Vanarama National League North: Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Leicester, Stoke, Newcastle, West Brom, Sunderland, Aston Villa, Hull, Middlesbrough, Derby County, Burnley, Sheffield Wednesday, Nottingham Forest, Blackburn Rovers, Leeds United, Bolton Wanderers, Huddersfield Town, Birmingham City, Preston North End, Rotherham United

Vanarama National League South: Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton, Southampton, West Ham, Swansea, Crystal Palace, Watford, Norwich City, Bournemouth, QPR, Fulham, Cardiff City, Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford, Ipswich Town, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Reading, Charlton Athletic, Bristol City, Milton Keynes Dons

First of all it was a mistake not to put Everton in North, and one of the lesser seeded teams in south, but the game had already started when I discovered the mistake so I didn't want to start over.

The clue is to see how the small teams will cope with all their money, and how fast the big teams can return to top flight football. How will economy develop. Usually this is done by holiday gaming, but I will play as manager of Bath City and see how much better I can perform than the AI under these circumstances. In the first season you will no matter what have the budget set by the game before the start.

But then after I did this, I decided to do the similar swap for the following leagues as well: Brazil, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Norway (my native country), Scotland, Spain and Turkey. I will follow these leagues also, but not as close as the English Leagues. And it will be interesting to see how this interferes with international and continental football as well.

First up will be a short summary of the Norwegian and Brazilian leagues as they play calendar year seasons.

 

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The first update here will be on the progress of the Norwegian and Brazilian leagues of 2015.

Norway:

In the Norwegian leagues structure several 2nd teams play originally in the 2.divisjon which is the lowest tier in FM. (Tier 3) This means some of those 2nd teams actually start in Tippeligaen (Tier 1) in this experiment.

Tippeligaen: 2015 edition of Tippeligaen was won by Ørn-Horten a team that in real life barely survived in 2.divisjon. They won 3 points ahead of Eidsvold Turn. With Molde 2nd team coming in 3rd place. 3 points separated the top 2 teams, with another 2 points down to 3rd place. Donn, Odda and Aalesund 2nd team was relegated to Adeccoligaen (Tier 2). I have a local team from my city Sprint-Jeløy Moss who secured 11th place and stayed in the division.

Adeccoligaen: Adeccoligaen was won by Stabæk Fotball 2nd team, Nybersund-Trysil followed in 2nd place 2 points behind, and Brumunddal Fotball secured promotion via playoffs after coming third another 5 points behind Nybergsund. Førde Fotball, Harstad IL, Fana IL and Odd BK 2nd team where relegated to 2.divisjon.

2.divisjon: The third tier 2.divisjon has 4 groups with only the winner securing promotion. So the original 16 teams from Tippeligaen was heavy favourites spred with 4 teams in each group together with another 4 teams from the original Adeccoligaen and the top teams from the real 2.divisjon. From Group 1 heavy favourites Rosenborg won the group 6 points ahead of Viking. From Group 2 Strømsgodset won a tight group 1 point ahead of Aalesund and another 2 points ahead of Molde (club of O.G.Solskjær). From Group 3 Vålerenga won 4 points ahead of real Adeccoligaen team Kristiansund, while Egersund took 3rd spot. Stabæk, Sandiness-Ulf and Sarpsborg 08 all underperformed and came in 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. From Group 4 was won by Odd BK 1 point ahead of Haugesund.

NM: NM is the Norwegian FA Cup and Molde made up some of their misery from not getting promoted by beating Lillestrøm 1-0 in the final.

The Norwegian league doesn't have much money, so I expect the big teams to catch up pretty soon. But it will be interesting to see which of the smaller teams that can survive the longest, and which of the big teams will win the league at first attempt.

Brazil:

Pretty straight forward 3 tiers, 20 teams in each and the top tier being switched with the bottom tier, and the one in the middle keeping the same teams.

Serie A: Londrina won Serie A, but only by goal difference ahead of Fortaleza. America RN came in third 6 points behind. Teams relegated where: ASA, Confianca, Guaratingueta and Icasa.

Serie B: This was just the ordinary Serie B, and Botafogo won by a heavy margin 14 points ahead of Vitoria. Bahia and Ceara also got promoted. Ciara just goal difference ahead of Atletico Goianiense. 4 clubs got relegated: Boa Esparto Club, ABC FC, Paysandu, Macae.

Serie C: This is the most interesting league so far. 20 teams ordinary from Serie A split into 2 groups of 10 teams. Then they play a play-offs to decide the champion and the teams to get promoted. Corinthians won group A, and Sao Paulo won group B. None of them got promoted on the first try. Palmeiras where crowned champions and where followed into promotion by Flamengo, Vasco de Gama and Gremio. Only Gremio played in group B of the 4 teams. Goias, Ponte Preta, Avai and Joinville where relegated out of the league system.

Copa Perdigao do Brasil: The Brazilian FA Cup is a long journey throughout the season. Santos and Cruzeiro made up for bad league season by entering the final. Cruzeiro won 2-1 on aggregate to claim the title.

 

In the next update, I will mention how I fared with Bath, and we take a closer look on European football in this experiment.

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So in this update we take a look at my first season with Bath City and how all the european switched leagues went on.

Bath City: When you start a switched savegame like this at a Premier League club you know you will earn a lot of money. Previous attempts have shown that the clubs dont spend their money wisely though. Why so? That was my thought so I decided to take a club my self and see how much better I could perform than the AI. I chose Bath City only expected to finish 13th but with a team that suited my tactics from the start. (4-3-3 tactic). A stadium with what I thought was over 8.000 capacity, but in fact only some 1200 seats where allowed in Premier League.

Started the season so-so with 6 wins and 5 losses from the first 11 games. That put us in 8th position but not far from the top. I had only managed a few signings that probably would have been possible to sign in Vanarama National North/South as well. The club was steady making profits and would end the season on around 85M pounds in the coffin. Faced Crawley Town in the 2nd round of Capital One Cup and won 4-2. Then we met Lowestoft Town in the 3rd round and won 4-1. But Guiseley proved to much of a task in the 4th round loosing 1-4 at home. After this we won 6 straight league games to go top of the table. However the season was close and we shifted positions mainly with FC United of Manchester and Chelmsford City. In the FA-Cup we faced Newcastle at home in the 3rd round and lost heavily 0-5. With 10 games to go we found some good form and won 6 games and drew 1 in the following 7 games to claim the Premier League title. It didn't mean much that we lost 2 of the 3 remaining games as other teams lost games thick and fast also.

Final league standings:

Bath City - 38 - 24 - 3 - 11 - +35 - 75

FC United of Manchester - 38 - 19 - 11 - 8 - +8 - 68

Chelmsford City - 38 - 20 - 7- 11 - +18 - 67

Brackley Town - 38 - 16 - 13 - 9 - +8 - 61

Telford United - 38 - 17 - 9 - 12 - +11 - 60

Havant & Waterlooville - 38 - 16 - 11 - 11 - +6 - 59

St Albans City - 38 - 15 - 13 - 10 - +19 - 58

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Bradford Park Avenue - 38 - 10 - 8 - 20 - -20 - 38

Gloucester City - 38 - 10 - 7 - 21 - -19 - 37

Hednesford Town - 38 - 4 - 11 - 23 - -37 - 23

The 3 bottom teams relegated to Sky Bet Championship, and they will most likely start to fall down the rankings, or could their money seem them start to fight their battle up again? Top 4 teams go to Champions League, but Brackley Town need to qualify which will be a massive task depending on their opponents.

Some teams have started to use a bit of cash on salary to keep their players mostly. Hednesford Town the worst team is the biggest spender at the moment with 6,1M pound annual salary. Lowest spender is Brackley Town with 0,2M pound. Telford United had the highest average attendance with 1442. Chelmsford City 926, and Bath City 899. At the bottom Hayes & Yeading United had only 71 spectators in average.

None of the clubs spent a single dime on transfer fee. All players signed in the first season was Free Transfers or Loanees.

Sky Bet Championship: Nuneaton Town won the Sky Bet Championship, with Stockport County in 2nd place. Sutton United gained promotion via play-offs. Gosport Borough, Curzon Ashton and Concord Rangers where relegated. For those 3 teams I dont think there is much hope in the coming seasons. Stockport County averaged 2562 in attendance. 

Sky Bet League 1: Grimsby Town won the league ahead of Forest Green Rovers and Cheltenham Town won promotion via play-offs. Braintree, Guiseley, Aldershot Town and Woking where relegated. Wrexham averaged 5146 in attendance. This is the first division where a club used money to sign a player, Eastleigh spent 5750 pounds on Eddie Ferns.

Sky Bet League 2: Plymouth Argyle won the league ahead of Oxford United and Leyton Orient. Northampton Town won the promotion play-offs. Dagenham & Redbridge and Bristol Rovers got relegated. Portsmouth averaged 13.963 in attendance. Portsmouth also spent the highest transfer fee when signing Carl Tremarco for 18K from Inverness.

Vanarama National League: Only two teams go up from National League. Millwall won the league and Wigan got promoted via play-offs. 4 teams got relegated: Chesterfield, Crewe Alexandra, Walsall and Blackpool. They will struggle to climb up in the coming seasons, but should survive in the bottom tier as lower teams gets promoted there. Sheffield United averaged 19.631 spectators. And Wigan spent 140K on a player from Charlton.

Vanarama National League North: Manchester City won the league with a staggering 114 points. Manchester United came second with 106 points and won the promotion play-offs. They beat Leicester in the semi final and Liverpool in the final. Rotherham United, Birmingham City and Preston North End got relegated and need to climb back into the league structure again. Manchester United had a healthy 72.094 average attendance. Biggest signing was nothing like these teams are used to. Manchester United signed Danilo from Real Madrid for 6,75M pounds.

Vanarama National League South: Arsenal won the league on 104 points. 17 points clear of Tottenham. Tottenham beat Southampton in the semi final of the play-offs and then beat Chelsea in the final to join Arsenal in promotion. Next year Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester City and Manchester United will fight for 2 promotion places from the National League up to League 2. Bournemouth, Fulham and Milton Keynes Dons where relegated. Surprising really to see Bournemouth get relegated in a league with several ordinary teams. Brighton was the surprise team in 6th. Arsenal averaged 58.428 spectators. While Tottenham made the biggest move with 6,5M pounds for Javi Martinez from Bayern.

FA-Cup: All the big teams are in the FA-Cup but they start already in the qualifying rounds and might face each other. That happened to the North London derby as Tottenham played Arsenal at home already in the 2nd Qualifying Round. Tottenham won, but would later be knocked out. Newcastle won the Cup after extra time beating Manchester United 2-1 in the final at Wembley. Wolves and Cardiff both reached the semi final. Margate and Eastbourne Borough from Premier League both enjoyed good spells reaching the quarter final.

Capital One Cup: Obviously the big teams are not part of the league cup at least for the first two seasons. Oxford United won the cup after beating Grimsby Town in the final. No Premier League club got past the fourth round so there was really no big upsets here. The attendance in the final was only 36.389.

Germany:

Bundesliga: Some of the teams in the Bundesliga are not that bad really. The league was won by Stuttgart Kickers. Sonnenhof Grossaspach took second place goal difference of 1 goal behind. Dynamo Dresden came in third, with Chemnitzer FC in 4th. Würzburg, Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Köln where relegated. Dresden actually averaged over 26.000 spectators.

2.Bundesliga: RB Leipzig won the league, Eintracht Braunschweig and Freiburg secured promotion. TSV 1860 München, FC St.Pauli and MSV Duisburg got relegated.

3.Bundesliga: Which teams started their climb back to the top? Well Bayern München of course did so. Leverkusen followed in 2nd spot, with 1 FC Köln claiming third and achieving promotion. This meant Dortmund couldnt climb on their first try. Frankfurt, Mannheim and Oldenburg where relegated. 

 

Next up will be a look at France, Spain, Italy

 

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Very interesting experiment TheEarl. I suppose the only chance the smaller clubs have is if their reputations increase to the point where you can actually start to use the money they are collecting each season, and try and stay competitive as their Leagues get more and more difficult each season. Likewise, for the traditional large clubs, their revenue will decrease, and the players they have may start to move on, leaving them stuck at a lower level. Good stuff, looking forward to more.  

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Now I forgot to mention one thing about Germany.

DFB-Pokal: DFB-Pokal is the main cup in Germany, aka FA-Cup. Bayern won this as well. But not as easy as you might think. They needed penalties against Darmstad in the quarter final, penalties against Wolfsburg in the semi final, and extra time in the final to beat Leverkusen 1-0.

There is also one more thing I want to mention about my Bath City team. And thats the Best Eleven from the first season to give a clue to what kind of players I used to win the Premier League with.

GK: Steve Phillips - 42 games (Free Transfer before the start of the season)

DR: Sekani Simpson - 42 games (Bath City at the start of the game)

DC: Jack Challis - 33 games (Loan from Birmingham City)

DC: Matt Taylor - 29 games, 1 goal (Free Transfer start of season)

DL: Dan Ball - 38 games, 3 goals (Bath City)

MC: Jake Nicholson - 42 games (Free Transfer start of season)

MC: Ashley Kington - 41 games, 4 goals (Bath City)

MC: Frankie Artus - 37 games, 2 goals (Bath City)

ST: Chas Hemmings - 42 games, 25 goals (Bath City)

ST: Nathan Corkery - 40 games, 21 goals (Loan from QPR)

ST: Andy Watkins - 35 games, 26 goals (Bath City)

4 additional players played more than 10 games, 3 of them original Bath City players, and one player signed on Free Transfer mid-season. So you can see I didn't really invest a lot in my team during the first season, and most players would probably be possible to acquire in National North/South as well.

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France:

Ligue 1: SC Bastia started in Ligue 1 and won comfortably 22 points ahead of US Creteil Lusitanos. ASMB Belfort and Paris FC followed in 3rd and 4th. Vendee-Lucon, SA Spinallen and Consolat Marseille where relegated. 

Ligue 2: Gazelec Ajaccio won the league, 5 points clear of Chamois Niortais. FC Metz also gained promotion. That means clubs like RC Lens and AJ Auxerre missed out on the opportunity of promotion. Stade Lavallois, Nimes Olympique and FC Bourg-Peronnas got relegated.

Championnat National: Paris SG clear winners as usual. 18 points ahead of Olympique Marseille. Stade Rennais followed into promotion. Olympique Lyonnais and AS Monaco will be disappointed with 4th and 5th and have to play at least another season in the National division. Angers SCO, Toulouse FC, SM Caen and CA Bastia all fell out of the league structure.

Coupe de France: Paris SG took this one as well. Winning 2-1 in the final against Stade Rennais. 

Coupe de la Ligue: Some glory for AS Monaco as they beat Troyes AC 3-0 in the final.

Italy:

Serie A: Italy is a league where I feel some of the bottom team can survive longer, as they have big stadiums and a bit better reputation than in the other leagues. Calico Catania won the league, 3 points clear of Mantova. L'Aquila Calcio 1927 claimed 3rd spot. A team to watch for later might be Lupa Roma who survived in 16th spot. AS Melfi, Savona FBC and AC Prato where relegated to Serie B.

Serie B: Pavia won the league, 4 points clear of Teramo Calcio. Juve Stabia was third, but lost in play-offs as Matera Calcio claimed the last promotion spot. Clubs like Reggiana and Padova will struggle to gain promotion as they will be joined by the big clubs gaining promotion from Lega Pro. Renate, Alto Adige, Cremonese and Fidelis Andria where relegated.

Lega Pro Girone A: Juventus won this group just as they wanted 24 points ahead of Sampdoria. Atalanta Bergamo and US Sassuolo followed Sampdoria to play-offs, but none of the three could join Juventus in promotion. Virtus Entella, Bassano and AC Ancona where relegated.

Lega Pro Girone B: Internazionale won the group, 5 points clear of rivals AC Milan. Udinese Calcio and Bologna joined AC Milan for play-offs. But even in this group no one could join Internazionale for promotion. This means another season in Lega Pro for AC Milan. SPAL 2013, Pisa Calcio and Macerates where relegated.

Lega Pro Girone C: Lazio won the hardest of the Lega Pro groups with 79 points. Employee claimed 71 points, Roma and Napoli both 70 points. But Napoli won the play-offs and joined Lazio for promotion. Fiorentina and Forsinone both got only 67 points and missed the play-offs all together. US Lecce, Foggia Calcio and Benevento Calcio got relegated.

TIM Cup: The Italian FA-Cup or Coppa Italia as I like to call it was won a bit surprisingly by Hellas Verona, winning on penalties against Fiorentina. 

Spain:

Liga BBVA: La Liga was won by a B-team. Real Betis B won 15 points clear of CD Guadalajara. Algeria B in 3 spot with San Roque de Lepe in 4th. But B-teams can't enter Europe so Portugalete in 5th and UE Olot in 6th will also play in Europe. Getafe B, Llosetense and Huracan Valencia got relegated.

Liga Adelante: B-teams can't get promoted to Liga BBVA either (but they can stay there if you forced them into the division via the editor.) Celia Vigo B won Liga Adelante, 4 points clear of Barcelona B. Recreativo de Huelva came in 3rd spot another 1 point behind Barcelona B. They obviously claimed promotion. Then Espanyol B followed in 4th, but promotions where given to CE L'Hospitalet in 5th and Ebro in 7th spot. Mensajero, Arandina, Gernika and CF Villanovense where relegated.

Segunda Division B1: First of all since its 4 groups in Segunda Division and 4 promotion places at stake one might think the winner of each group gets promoted, but thats not the case. Its an intricate play-off system and the winner might not get promoted. For this switcheroo there is 5 original Liga BBVA teams in each group at the start, making the league phase quite easy for many teams. Villarreal won the league 1 point clear of Valencia. But Valencia claimed promotion, Villarreal didn't. The 4 relegated teams are not much to mention as they are teams originally from this division.

Segunda Division B2: Atletico de Madrid won the group on 103 points, 3 points clear of Sevilla. And Atletico also claimed promotion. A side note would be that Real Madrid Castilla came in 8th position nowhere near to trouble the best teams. All relegated teams are unknown.

Segunda Division B3: Real Madrid won this group 10 points clear of Celta de Vigo. Real Betis A team was not as good as their B team. Finishing only 6th. Real Madrid gained promotion as well. 

Segunda Division B4: Barcelona won the group 6 points clear of Athletic Bilbao. Barcelona claimed promotion also. Espanyol was only 5th some 28 points behind their arch rivals. 

Copa del Rey: Final contested between the big teams. Atletico de Madrid won the final 1-0 against Barcelona. Worth mentioning is that Real Madrid where knocked out already in the round of 32 5-4 on aggregate by Villarreal.

Champions League: Champions League is straight forward the first season with all the teams that we "know" from regular play. The following 16 teams qualified from the Group Phase: Chelsea, AS Roma, Atletico de Madrid, FC Porto, FC Barcelona, Arsenal, Paris SG, Wolfsburg, Real Madrid, Zenit Sankt-Petersburg, Juventus, Valencia, Bayern München, Manchester City, AS Monaco, Dynamo Kyiv. First KO Round saw maybe 2 surprises. Dynamo Kyiv knocked out Chelsea, and Zenit Sankt-Petersburg knocked out AS Monaco. The 6 other teams to progress was: Bayern München, Atletico de Madrid, FC Barcelona, Paris SG, Real Madrid and Juventus. In the Quarter Finals another surprising win for Zenit as they beat Paris SG. FC Barcelona, Juventus and Atletico de Madrid progressed as well. Juventus and Barcelona then won their Semi Finals and Barcelona won the tournament in the end. This means a golden opportunity for Barcelona to rule the Champions League for a few seasons to come.

Europa League: Another straight forward competition, but with some heavy favorites after the Group Stage. Villarreal, Manchester United, Schalke, Liverpool, Tottenham, Dortmund and Napoli seemed to be the best bet. Tottenham where the first of these teams to get knocked out in the first KO round. Dortmund was cut in the second KO round by Benfica. In the Quarter finals Benfica won again, Liverpool (beating Villarreal), Manchester United and Napoli progressed. Liverpool then beat Benfica in the Semi Final, and Napoli won against Manchester United. Liverpool then won 1-0 against Napoli in the Final. This means Liverpool can qualify for Champions League next season. A club from National League North can be the hardest opponent for Barcelona next year.

Awards: This gets a bit interesting as player reputation normally awards the best players. But with most players playing in lower reputation leagues Hulk of Zenit won both FIFA Ballon d'Or, World Player of the year and Best Player in Europe. The players in 2nd and 3rd was from Ukrainian leagues so all in the top 3 comes from none swapped leagues. When will the big teams players be back at the top of the nominations? The European Golden Shoe is however a straight statistical award. And Joshua Stockwell from Chelmsford City won with 50 points (25 league goals), Andy Watkins from Bath City claimed 2nd with 48 points (24 league goals)

Facts: Some other things I looked into. Lionel Messi only scored 13 goals in Segunda Division B. Cristiano Ronaldo however managed 32 goals. Zlatan Ibrahimovic only scored 12 goals from 22 games in Championnat National. He then switched to his former club Ajax (they got promoted back to Eresdivisie at the first try.)

I will not look into Portuguese, Scottish, Turkish or Dutch leagues but they are all swapped also.

Next update will be when the Norwegian and Brazilian leagues have finished their 2016 season. (My savegame is currently in October 2016)

 

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  • 1 month later...
27 minutes ago, TheEarl said:

Will have to continue this at a later stage, if mods wants to close it its fine. As I am in currently on a other project. 

Hi TheEarl, I'll close it for now and when you want it re-opening ask either myself, tenthreeleader or Gavrenwick and we'll do it for you

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