[FM24] Lichen grows anywhere, Liechtenstein needs die Alpensonne

[Ceching You Out]

Our first transfer of this save in 2028 at the end of year 5. Otto ended up on the transfer list, which was nice for our bottom line, but not the reason we finally bought him. I've become quite frustrated at the influential players and squad average dragging down our key mental attributes. We're purchasing Otto with an eye to immediately making him Captain (despite terrible Leadership); between that and being a talented player on Star status, I'm hoping he'll drive our culture forward.

 

Otto - 102 CA / 123 PA @ 21. Injury proneness could be better (14) but we need him in the locker room more than on the field (Professionalism - 15, Determination - 15). 

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Got so carried away with the Otto transfer that I forgot to update at end of season. As you can imagine, that means we did not get promoted.

 

After 6 games into the back half of the season we weren't quite on promotion pace even with a loaned back (26f) Voigt. We packed it in and started preparing for the upcoming season, relegating Cavafe, Fetahu, and (26f) Voigt to the deep bench in favor of lower ability/higher potential players. I don't want to be too future-looking, but playing time is critical to develop a treadmill of talent when we're just Semi-Pro.

Lustenau won the league on a crazy run. Only two wins and two draws in their first nine was a rough start; from there they only dropped points in five of the last twenty-one games. Championship form.

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Another example of why I feel comfortable loading old saves when the Board accept an offer over my head. They were willing to take $125K for (26a) Carsten Behm. His agent will tell you he can get $3.7M. Clear our debts or snap it off for just a pittance? Tsk tsk Board, tsk tsk.

 

There's our finances solved for a bit. $2.5M to the good after climbing out of the hole. Have I learned my lesson about aggressively spending? Time will tell.

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No, I have not learned anything. Spend! Spend! Spend!

Unfortunately they shot down Youth Facility and Junior Coaching upgrades, despite my fervent protests. But...

They did accept Training Facility upgrade. Looks like we'll be back in the red soon!

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The table tells the tale here. Joint best defense with a top three attack yields the best GD and means we're good value for the top at the midway point. Can we hang on? Two questions loom large.

1a. Can we keep up this form? Signs so far are positive and if anything we're ever so slightly underperforming versus xG.

1b. Will the jackals stay away from appetizing herd of players? Even sniffing around might be enough to slow us down. The appeal of chasing promotion is a poor natural defense to a challenging bank balance and low reputation (picked 14th).

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These letter grades started bad in year one and have continued to get worse. 4.5 out of 5 stars is peak comedy.

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This was such a pain to negotiate I can almost forgive the Board for just accepting any flat fee - apparently they were content with any bid $115K and up. I'd talked (27f) Wenaweser (and our star striker (27g) Emmerling into staying through the end of the season to see if we could get promoted and he'll be worth much, much more if we are. He's got similar stats to (26a) Behm we'd just sold for a few million. But to be fair, I'm paying the piper for spending on facility upgrades. Highly doubt the Board steps in otherwise. Don't yet  have an option to ask the Board to reconsider.

(27g) Emmerling stays and we do get the benefit of (27f) Wenaweser through the end of the year. On to the promotion charge.

 

EDIT: Interesting change, although I can't tell if it's tied to the transfer or I'm just now noticing - he's flipped to Austrian as primary nationality and Liechtensteiner as secondary.

EDIT x2: Nearly three months later, but this probably explains the switch.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[Ceching You Out]

Focus on promotion, he says to himself. Don't get distracted by shiny objects. Do not worry about filling your nest with glittery trinkets. Do not...

 

Backhaus - 102 CA / 139 PA @ 19, soon to be 20.

Hidden attributes are all solid including Professionalism (14). Love the all around physicality for our level. Ordinarily I'd write down his high PA a bit since his growth should be slowing down into his 20s, but there's some dev window left, he's never played a senior club game, and our training facilities are no longer laughable. He gets anywhere near 139 and he's a gem.

A shiny, shiny gem...

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Not awful, but not great. Wishing for another class with 5+ 120 PAs. I'll sign anyone with PA over a 100 and cut the rest loose.

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Hey, I know that guy!

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With four matches to go, we clinch. The record for worst discipline, that is. Safe to say we'll be extending our own record before all is done.

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In previous seasons you'd have needed between 54 (very low) and 74 (very high) to match the champions. Three times in between it was either 67 or 68. This season - 67 points.

Spoiler

We clinched promotion on GD with 4 games remaining (Liefering can't go up) and the title with 1 game left. In a twist of fate (26f) Voigt, playing on loan for Poelten scored two goals to send us to defeat, but it didn't matter.

We finish the season 2nd highest scorers with the stingiest defense by some distance. Fully deserved. Media prediction of 14th? Not so accurate.

To be honest, I'm most excited about this offseason. We'll need to sort our (awful) finances and reevaluate our squad to lock players down or create space for dev pathways. We're going to be a bit worse than any of the bottom Premier League sides, at least to start. But we only have to beat one to stay up.

Lost in the midst of championship revelry:

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More confirmation of our dominance:

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Beautiful. Glad to see it. Now if I can just arrange a sale or two we should start the season close to even.

EDIT: Getting better... in fact that puts us $500K to the good. Until we quickly blow it on our youth set up.

 

EDIT X2: Both of these required pushing deals through the Board's initial refusal. (24a) Goop is a 21 year old 86/102 backup ST/CAM who has youth 4 years younger nipping at his heels; (24b) Nickel is not-quite 21 year old 95/113 regular starter in the middle of the park with a mediocre personality and dressing room influence.

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Ceching You Out

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I would not claim to be an expert on the ways of the FM Transfer Market, but bizarre to me that (26g) Bender and (26d) Strohmaier bring in more cash than the two above. The former is a 19 year old 76/108 returning to the First Division for Amstetten, the latter a 19 year old 71/114 heading to Poland. They both saw rotational game time last season but the addition of Backhaus and the emergence of a better youth meant they were #5 and #6 on the DC depth chart now. Both have very meh personalities to boot.

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An earlier "halfway point" now that we're in the Premier League. We play each team home and away, then split into two mini-groups to finish the season. Mixed emotions at the moment. I started concerned about our safety, began to wonder if we'd pretty clearly be a top half team, and then slumped into mid-table that's clearly neither hear nor there. Realistically, our best finish is probably 6th. I think we're better than most of the teams below us so we just need to catch one from the Altach/Vienna/LASK trio.

 

EDIT: Impressive we're this far down the list when we're nearly academy only. Means there's a lot of HG talent in Austria.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[Ceching You Out]

Only time I've legitimately wanted to throw something in 6 seasons. We hit a rough patch playing the best 4 sides essentially back-to-back-to-back-to-back; no real concerns. We get a shot at the second bottom side to recover plus dig their hole a little deeper. Instead, a second yellow in the 3rd (!) minute leaves us short-handed. We cope beautifully, pulling ahead and playing confidently... until throwing it away in stoppage time for the loss. Their first goal came after we turned it over on a cross-field pass to the wing at midfield. By our DC. With no fancy role, playing on Cautious. Just clear the ball. Ugh.

 

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Funny that this is still bad by letter grade, but a distinct improvement on the last couple years. Let's see if it has any relation to reality. (Still five out of five stars.)

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Now we're talking! 156, 154, 143, 132 as the top PAs with pretty solid CAs. I could get used to this.

 

I imagine this plays a part (in addition to last season's rep boost and now being in the top flight):

 

But it ain't cheap!

[Ceching You Out]

We entered the last two matches of the... regular season? seeding matches? round robin? Whatever you call the first 22 occasions where you play each team home and away - a quick Google search was not very helpful on terminology. Anyway, last two matches before teams split into a championship and relegation mini-leagues a point behind Vienna.

We've got Red Bull Salzburg (emphatically top of the league, duh) and Sturm Graz (4th place but slumping); Vienna has Wolfsberger (10th place but picking up form) and Rapid (clear runners up to RB). I'd take their schedule given the choice.

Through 60 minutes we're 2-0 down to RB, our better xG really no consolation for getting carved apart by a more talented, clinical team.  Not too bothered (it's RB, duh), I throw on far too many junior subs (aka the human version of "the towel") plus (26h) Bertl. I suppose (26h) Bertl was offended - he responded with goals in the 72' and 88' to rescue a draw. We'll take it! A nice morale booster, sure.

Not much more than that given that -- no, wait! Wolfsberger beat Vienna 2-0. We're now exactly level on points and GD but ahead on Goals For. Things just got interesting. We're likely favored now since we're playing the weaker opposition in worse form. Can we definitively stay up with a 6th place finish? Call the bookmakers and punt a sum because I'm feeling optimistic.

Begin matchday 22. Sturm Graz comes out flying. No, that other thing. Poke them with a stick because they seem to be dead and not doing anything. Their possession drops into the 20% range with zero shots on goal. Vienna scores against Rapid in the 28'. Fine, we still control our own destiny and Sturm Graz are uninterested. The game is fairly devoid of chances but we're in control at least. Halftime sees our score 0-0 and Vienna 1-0.

Sturm Graz stumbles awake (not dead after all! at least on set pieces), lazily looping a front post header to the back post where Bachmann taps home with his head. A few minutes later (27g) Emmerling taps home a deflected (26h) Bertl cross from the goal mouth. Okay, now lets just ease ahead and sleep easy tonight.

Except we don't kick on. We remain in control but generate nada. Minor changes on our end don't generate much. Desperation is knocking on the door. Hey Rapid, beginning to think we need some help here.

More changes in the 80' but, in an uncharacteristic move, I leave tired starters on the field. We just need that extra bit of quality; don't think the youthful energy of our subs are what we need to change things. Chances start to pop up, finally. But still nothing to show.

Then! In the '87' (27e) Stenzel corrals a ball near midfield and smashes a through ball to a breaking (27g) Emmerling. He's the man we want the chance to fall to, he's in, he... smashes it home. Done!

Crank up the time wasting, swap a couple tired starters for fresh, more defensive players. Beautiful. Stoppage time, the Sturm Graz winger breaks down the right. Lots of space. My heart clenches, surely not. Winger gets to the byline. Their striker is open at the corner of the six. No no nooooo -- he smashes it wide. Yes yes yes!

We win, matching Vienna on GD and taking it on Goals For. Only after looking at the scores post-match do I notice that we also desperately needed a Rapid goal for our goal to matter. A two goal victory for Vienna would've meant we needed to win by two. Thank you, Rapid, for the help I didn't know we needed. Written in the (admittedly low stakes) stars.

 

So that means we're staying up. Our finances are a wreck but I'm honestly not sure if we have more money coming based on how we finish in the Championship mini-league. First two spots are guaranteed CL, next two get EL depending on the results in the Cup, and #5 plays the winner of the Relegation mini-league for a Conference spot. I suppose we could target the latter given we'll only be 2 points behind LASK after points are halved. That'd be the cherry on the cake that we didn't even know we wanted at the start of the season.

EDIT: Sturm Graz would be the easiest club to catch and if that game was anything to go off of...

Edited December 26, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[Ceching You Out]

Hey, I know those guys!

[Ceching You Out]

I'll spare the drama here. We entered the last two match days of the Championship Round in control for 4th (!) place with games versus LASK and Sturm Graz left, compared to Altach playing Sturm Graz and Rapid and LASK playing us and RB. We've got the easier schedule.

Then (26b) Michaud, our string-pulling #10, goes down to injury. We stumble to a loss, falling behind Altach (who beat Sturm Graz by a goal) and opening the door for LASK to catch us on the last day; however we still have the the possibility of vaulting back to 4th with a win and an Altach loss to Rapid, a far from unlikely event.

(27g) Emmerling and (26a) Behm pick up injuries before we play Sturm Graz and suddenly our best three attacking players are all out. We go ahead twice but can't hold on, and in the end the result didn't matter regardless. Altach drew, sealing 4th regardless based on their GD advantage and LASK loses so they can't close the gap. 5th it is, which I believe means we'll play the winner of Vienna/Wolfsburger in a final for the Europa Conference spot.

 

EDIT: Vienna hammers Wolfsburger 3-0 so let's see if we can sneak into Europe.

EDIT x2: Hold on, it's a two-legged affair? And the latter is after (26a) Behm returns to his parent club (if he's even healthy enough to play). Woof.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[Ceching You Out]

We end our season with a whimper. (25b) Michaud returns in time, but not at full strength. (27g) Emmerling and (26a) Brehm are unable to feature - although the end date for the latter's loan was automatically extended a few days which was a nice touch.

Vienna sit back in both legs and dare us to break down their sturdy defense. Without 2/3 of our best attacking players, we're toothless. Conceding 2 goals off corners and then a PK (conceding only one from open play) means we'll miss out on Europe.

Rollercoaster of emotions this season.

1. I'm not sure we have the quality to stay up.
2. Maybe we can squeak top half?
3. We're definitely doing it.
4. Nevermind, we're just not good enough.
5. Wait, we did it!
6. Sure seems like we could qualify for Europe, maybe even EL.
7. Well, missed that opportunity. Maybe just the Europa Conference then.
8. I guess we'll have to be satisfied with avoiding relegation.

Another busy offseason coming up. We'll need to look at our finances and likely make some significant sales, adjust our depth chart for our amazing new youth players, and decide how we want to approach the next few years. Not necessarily in that order.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[Ceching You Out]

State of FC Liechtenstein - 2030

Let's spend a little more time than usual reviewing where we are. There's been massive changes over the last four years, although they've felt incremental along the way. I didn't set any goals at the start because (1) I wasn't sure whether I'd even last a few years given my rustiness with FM and (2) I wanted to feel out any limiting factors before making grandiose promises. I think now a few pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together on how I want to define "success" for the club and how we want to approach it.

 

Finances

We're starting here because it will quite possibly be our biggest challenge for the foreseeable future. We're obviously able to put a talented squad on the field even before our jackpot intake this year; the only thing that can jeopardize that is our finances deteriorating to the point we can no longer pay what's needed, the board starts selling over my head, or our facilities/recruitment upgrades get scaled back.

Yearly income: $6.4M

Yearly expenditure: $8.1M

Loss: $1.7M

No two ways about it, this is a bleak total after our first season in the Premier League where we've generated our largest income yet. Sponsorship and TV Money nearly doubled from the First Division. We sold $2.1M worth of players. We set (and re-set) record income from gate receipts. There's even a $250K injection from the Board. And the picture here looks better than it should because we've already received ~$600K in sponsorship for the upcoming season.

Roughly $1.6M of the outgoing was salaries for players and coaches, which is fairly respectable. $3.5M is our youth setup alone! The remaining ~$3M are small chunks of $2-300K for things like Ground Maintenance, Match Day Expenses, etc.

There doesn't appear to be an obvious place to cut our expenses - transfers have been less than $300K total for Otto and Backhaus. We'd save some upfront costs if we self-sabotage our Academy, but that's never going to be on the table. We'll never voluntarily cutback on our youth setup. It's the whirring engine that we're using to push us forward. But these levels are not cheap (10/12/20/20):

 

That means we need to raise our revenue. I'm not sure how much growth to expect here in media rights, gate receipts, sponsorships, etc. but 20% would be pretty phenomenal given we only saw those figures double-ish with promotion (usually the single biggest increase). That'd add about $800K next year. Meaning we'd be $900K in the hole again assuming another $2.1M of player sales.

That's... not going to do it. Our finances are currently "insecure" and staying in heavy debt is going to incentivize our Board to accept an offer they shouldn't. We'll need to strategically sell $3M+ of players each season to turn our finances around, at least until the income mentioned above grows enough to give us more breathing room.

 

The good news: I'm excited to wheel and deal a bit. I'm happy running a lean squad and cashing out aggressively; you may recall this nearly got us relegated a few seasons ago.

The bad news: the figures we're talking about mean we're probably going to have to cut some meat, not just fat. Hence why I want to look at our squad more closely next.

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State of FC Liechtenstein - 2030 (continued)

The Tactic

This will be brief, since I'm far less in the tactical weeds than I have been in past saves. I'm not doing anything revolutionary, although I am finding joy in a more general tactic that requires less specialization. That's not to say each player will take on a role the exact same way (in fact I'd expect there's a ton of variation depending on who slots in where), but the heavy use of generic, supporting roles minimizes points of failure. The whole thing doesn't fall apart just because we don't have an Enganche or False 9 or what-have-you.

Most of this tactic will likely remain the same for those reasons, plus I don't think it's currently holding us back. However, the two CM roles do change somewhat often to fit our best, available partnership. Usually it's a DLP plus a slightly more covering role like Mezzala or BWM. I'll probably revisit the CM roles for next season after looking at the squad.

 

 

The Squad - top down

I don't often spend the time to thoroughly hash out a development plan for the next season. You'll find much better inspiration on that topic from @Jimbokav1971 and @_Ben_! But I usually have a good feel for my top 2-3 players in a position and just run with it, adjusting as needed along the way. We're, however, entering territory where I need an improved, holistic view because selling decisions over the next few years will likely dwarf everything else in terms of importance.

Do we have someone to step in to the hole if we sell? Should we be thinking early about retraining someone? Is there a reasonable pathway to more development/exposure or is it time to sell? As you move through that list (and ask other challenging questions), you need an increasingly better understanding of the squad today.

By true PA (not PPA):

 

By CA (not PCA):

 

For reference, predicted-2nd Rapid has CAs from 95 to 137 with the bulk of their players in the 120s. Vienna, predicted 3rd is about the same. Sturm Graz predicted 4th is similar to the previous two just shifted down by ~10 points. In a nutshell, we're overmatched there for now and that's excluding the big dog RB. But once you get into the next tranche of clubs Altach, LASK, Wolfsberger, etc. we're competitive.

If we want to win a title we'll need more players at 125+ CA. In fact I'd hazard a guess that we'll have a pretty good idea how we'll stack up in the league just by how many of those players we can field.

[Ceching You Out]

State of FC Liechtenstein - 2030 (continued)

The Squad - bottom up

Let's take a quick spin through position by position to see where we are and what the immediate future looks like. I want to do this before I sell anyone in the summer transfer window.

 

Goalies

Incredibly easy place to start. (26e) Blumenstock is the clear starter while (23*) Broemer is the backup since he never kicked on. I'd be open to letting the latter go, except he's not worth anything and we do need some kind of backup.

Thoughts: no changes needed. If we did lose one of these two, I think there's a Vaduz keeper who might be worth evaluating. No dev pipeline considerations,

 

 

 

Central Defenders

 

Backhaus is our best here, with (23*) Dankert our longest serving; those two paired last season to decent effect. (27d) Sirch started in our promotion season after retraining from DM (before Backhaus joined). (27e) Stenzel is a bit of a wildcard and likely someone worth discussing at the end given his positional flux. (27k) Hartmann tore his ACL last season, but otherwise was on the fringes of the first team.

(29d) Schmied is/could be a solid development opportunity but his personality has only just started to turn around. He's also 5'10" with a Jumping Reach of 6 so he's retraining to play as an outside back since further training apparently can't improve it. The rest are deep youth players.

Thoughts: (27d) Sirch just about pips (23*) Dankert as the 2nd starter but the upside isn't all that extensive. Personalities are a wash and (23*) Dankert has the ability to mentor the edge off some of the worst personalities we receive. Beyond that we're light, but since we're looking for someone to sell I could see whoever is third choice being on the trade block. It might be (27d) Sirch if his transfer value is really that high; maybe the AI sees his growth curve and thinks there's a lot more there in terms of PPA.

(27k) Hartmann would step in as the 3rd DC, a bit more than he's ready for. But he's got a solid personality and is close enough that I think he'd quickly get into the 90s CA range (and no longer be a liability if called into action). Of the rest, maybe (29h) Walser is worth keeping an eye on for a rare appearance. (28g) Pavoni, (28m) Adler, and (29l) Andreas seem unlikely to grow into the range where they'd be worth developing to sell (much less actually play for us) based on current CA, personality, and PA ceiling.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[Ceching You Out]

State of FC Liechtenstein - 2030 (continued)

 

Outside Backs

(25a) Klinger is a retrained DM playing as a right-sided IWB(s); (26c) Uhlig is our left-sided WB(s). Outside of those two I've got a universal concern - all our DR/DL are tiny. Seriously, like Jumping Reach 4-6. Not what I'm looking for so. (28c) Vanni has been our backup this last year and developed well with a solid personality. (30f) Ainoeder has an even better upside and personality. (29d) Schmied is retraining here (as mentioned in the section above). The two new 2030 intake players are sale opportunities since I'm hoping the high CA leads them to overrate how much room they have for growth.

Thoughts: (25a) Klinger doesn't have the best personality and is influential, wants a new contract, and isn't that far off his ceiling. Plus we've got a lot of potential in the pipeline behind him. It's likely time to sell and see if some combination of players can step up. Should/could (30f) Ainoeder be retrained as a more defensive CM?  (26c) Uhlig holds down the other side as our vice-captain. I love that we have quality here but not that it doesn't fit our style. I don't see the mid- to long-term answer here that I'd fight to hang on to. This looks more like a list of players we want to develop and sell in succession - (25a) Klinger this summer, (28c) Vanni as soon as we have (30f) Ainoeder ready behind him (likely next summer). (30g) Kasper and (30e) Hunziker are candidates for spot minutes to cash in on in the next 1-2 years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[_Ben_]

14 hours ago, Ceching You Out said:

I don't often spend the time to thoroughly hash out a development plan for the next season. You'll find much better inspiration on that topic from @Jimbokav1971 and @_Ben_! But I usually have a good feel for my top 2-3 players in a position and just run with it, adjusting as needed along the way. We're, however, entering territory where I need an improved, holistic view because selling decisions over the next few years will likely dwarf everything else in terms of importance.

Thanks - I appreciate the kind words.

I've been following along with this and really think you've done a great job. The most recent intake looks fruitful and, hopefully, playing at a higher level will allow you to develop and sell on, for the benefit of the national team more than the club team in the shorter term.

[Ceching You Out]

5 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

Thanks - I appreciate the kind words.

I've been following along with this and really think you've done a great job. The most recent intake looks fruitful and, hopefully, playing at a higher level will allow you to develop and sell on, for the benefit of the national team more than the club team in the shorter term.

Any time. Not flattery to say I needed a refresher on the parts of the game I love the most - youth and development - and I found it aplenty in your threads. I also greatly appreciate seeing your methods and stealing elements that align with how I like to play the game. There's a lot to be said for finding the parts of FM that bring you joy and focusing on that.

Glad you're enjoying the ride. We've definitely accelerated faster than I expected from the "bottoming out" season, but youth development has the potential to do that once you've got the foundation in place. I'm curious myself how we'll strike the balance between generating --> developing --> reaping the benefits of the high caliber players we're starting to produce in the top division. The national team really ought to see a huge lift either way, but club level is TBD. All the major leagues are loaded so I'm not quite sure how aggressive their transfer behavior will get and how much say control I'll be able to exert.

Good reminder that it'd be interesting to recap our contributions to the national team and how they're faring!

[Ceching You Out]

State of FC Liechtenstein - 2030 (continued)

 

Midfielders (CM & AMC)

Here's probably the most fascinating area of our team. Last season we started with (25b) Draxler as a Mezzala and (27h) Disler as a DLP with (26b) Michaud at AMC. The former has been a consistent gap-filler in whatever role is needed, even previously playing on the wings for us. The latter two played out of their skins, which was not a surprise for (26b) Michaud given he's been one of our top players for at least two seasons. (27h) Disler stepped in to the starting line up to replace (24b) Nickel (who we'd banished to Sweden). (27e) Stenzel covered either CM role and (27h) Disler pushed into AMC when needed, but frankly there was little rotation. (28f) Altwicker was mostly a garbage time sub but has a decent personality and upside. (29b) Doepke is deeper in our pipeline but is probably worth enough game time to put him in the shop window.

And then you have our three brand new additions - (30a) Schmadtke at AMC, (30c) Eckmeyer as a more defensive CM, and Amelia as a more attacking CM or AMC. For the former two it will be a question of when and how much they see the field, not if.

Thoughts: (26b) Michaud remains the starter at AMC. I think we may begin the year with (25b) Draxler and (27h) Disler in central midfield, but with the expectation that they'll become rotation players once the two young hot shots grow into the team just a little more. (27e) Stenzel could still see time here but I think he's going to be more needed in defense depending on sales. (27f) Altwicker and (29b) Doepke will need a few spot appearances to see how develop for the playmaker/a more attacking role. If I'm going to sell anyone here, it's probably (25b) Draxler and I'm not sure he's going to garner enough interest to make it worth it between the contract he signed last year and being so close to his relatively low PA ceiling; I'll probably at least dangle him though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Ceching You Out

[Ceching You Out]

State of FC Liechtenstein - 2030 (continued)

 

Outside Forwards/Wingers

In stark contrast, here's the least interesting (and worst) group we've got. Otto is our captain, starting for us for the second year. Previously he'd been paired with a loaned-back (26a) Behm, but that's over after returning to Vienna (and drawing light interest from Ligue 1). (26h) Bertl likely steps into the starting line-up now but the 5'4" sparkplug has been most effective as an impact sub to date. Slim pickings beyond that - (29a) Feidel saw some action towards the end of last season but hardly developed. The rest are places we might be able to dev and sell but there's likely no future with us. (27c) Huber is a failure story for us, unable to change his awful personality and so he's stagnated.

Thoughts: Otto and (26h) Bertl, I guess. Shop window for (29a) Feidel, (29g) Oswald, (28a) Daudin with an eye to selling next summer. Maybe throw (28h) Eberle and (30d) Allmannsberger on that list. Does (25b) Draxler move back here? Should I revisit potential transfer targets knowing how weak we are here? Do I have a better prospect I want to retrain here? No, no, and maybe, I think.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ceching You Out]

State of FC Liechtenstein - 2030 (continued)

 

Strikers

Last but not least, our strikers. (27g) Emmerling is the undisputed man. (30b) Wagner is a great addition from this last intake and will immediately become backup; (27j) Doering served that role last year and was out of his depth (although did grow 10 points). (28i) Ahrent and (29c) Adamczyk are potentially worth some game time to see if they're worth selling next summer.

Thoughts: (27g) Emmerling looks set to lead the line for us for a couple years. I think (30b) Wagner may train as an AML or AMR to give us a better dev option to sink minutes into, plus make sure he gets enough time. I'll likely test the market on (27j) Doering to open up the 3rd spot on the depth chart for the others.

 

Overall

Some observations, in no particular order:

• We're okay in defense, strong in the center of the park, light on the outside forwards, and solid up front
• I'd like for us to move towards being a more physical side - taller, faster, stronger. This clashes with some of the potential we've got, especially (26h) Bertl and (30f) Ainoeder
• Potential sell list: (27d) Sirch, (25a) Hasan, (27j) Doering. That's probably not enough. (26h) Bertl is actually tempting to add to the list if needed, but that only exacerbates our challenges
• I'll need to keep an eye on our 100-110 PA players since they're starting to stack up but likely depth at best. Ideally they become sales fodder but not sure if we'll provide enough dev time for it to work in practice

Trying to put a bow on all this, I think the next goals for this save are:

1. Create a stable financial model and build our bank account (i.e., figure out who/how to sell just the right amount). Maybe even be a little conservative on the remaining facility upgrades to maintain control of transfers
2. Qualify for Europe - not that far out of reach. Within a few years I think we'll be decent value for qualifying for group stages
3. Challenge for the domestic title - going to take a lot to beat Red Bull Salzburg

 

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In the midst of all that analysis, Sturm Graz launched this offer:

 

It would solve our money problems... but if he's not interested I'm actually happy to wait. We're very reliant on his goals for now; I'd strongly prefer selling other players.

 

Similar story for (26e) Blumenstock, except the money is worse and we have even less options for replacing him. An even easier pass, but I'm beginning to think we might get A LOT of transfer interest this summer.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Ceching You Out

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Someone's going to feel very foolish when they realize they didn't double check their Excel formulas. This is very much not true.

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Left money on the table here though. I'd checked with his agent on interest in mid-June and he'd suggested $1.7M was possible, but that had dried up by the time we hit July. Should've just pulled the trigger earlier - lesson learned.

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First time we've had a player show up on this list. Moving on up in the world, I guess.

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(28j) Ahrent is 76 CA / 107 PA @ 18 is not one I'd planned on selling. He's in line for spot game time at most. Given our sales for similar players, I think the ceiling if we held off a year is ~$500k anyway. He probably won't hit that with these clauses, but is close enough to give our bank account a boost now.

 

I hemmed and hawed on this one. Selling (26h) Bertl leaves us incredibly thin on the wings. $4.3M covers our deficit for almost two years though, and I think both the clauses here are reasonable. I'd also love if our Board negotiates a cash-in on the % profit since there's little chance that's will pay anything. He's a handsomely paid fringe player.

(25b) Draxler replaces him in our starting line-up and now we'll be leaning even heavier on our bright young 16 year olds for rotation. I don't love that, but the deciding question in my mind was - are we more at risk of the Board selling one of our great players over my head this season if we keep (26h) Bertl or getting relegated if we sell? Our bank balance would be headed for ~$3M in the hole by the end of the season. Since I'm not in love with the player, especially his vertical challenges, he heads to the Netherlands and this turns into more of a "hang on" than "push on" season for us.

 

The last of our departures, which unfortunately stretched into early September. I'd hoped to have moved him long ago for about 2x this amount, but (25a) Klinger had no interest in leaving until the window had closed for most leagues on September 1st. I contemplated keeping him until January to bring in additional money. In the end, we've got solid money from the transactions above so my greater concern is an influential player destabilizing the dressing room while he waits for a move.

 

So at the end of all that, our finances look a bit better. We'll almost certainly finish the year in the black even without further sales, although I wouldn't bank on a balance greater than $1M at that point.

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Next international break, check. Both kinds at that. Another 3 appearances and we'll get another $300k too, which would take the total to $4.9M. If we could sell that sell-on clause now...

EDIT: Not until April but the check still clears

 

 

Note: we never did find a spot near the halfway mark of the "regular season" where teams had played close to the same amount of games. Bizarre. So we're just plowing right ahead. To the youth preview, for the moment.

These have been very low information value so far, so I'm not going to get overly excited. But wide midfielders and centerbacks would have topped my list of requests. And the letter grades certainly have improved? Five out of five stars, as always.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Ceching You Out

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In lieu of an actual retrospective after we'd gone through our first part of home-and-away, let's check in on the 2/3ish point. Games played still haven't aligned; I'm assuming that has something to with European ties. Yup, that's it - leagues phases for Rapid and Sturm Graz in the EL and Altach in the EC. Strangely RB in the CL league phase is unaffected. Overall those are great results, to be honest. Especially since I do have other major leagues loaded.

Mixed messages in this table. We started off poorly (negative) but really didn't fall behind (positive) in the table. We dropped points after the 88th minute 4(!) times, 2 wins becoming losses and 2 draws becoming losses (negative). Anti-clutch is not a trait I'm trying to cultivate, although I suppose I can't complain about our very young team falling apart a bit as legs tire. If we'd held on to those 6 points we're easily in the top half...

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Not quite the top end of last year, but 6 players 125+ PA is a very, very good floor (if that's indeed what this is). Most of those CAs are high enough that their PA is still possible. Pretty happy about their position spread too.

Interestingly enough, we've got our first non-Liechtenstein player come through in (31b) Geylani. I've always loved that in previous saves, but since bolstering the national team is one of my end goals it's a little bittersweet here. I may sign everyone with 90+ PA just to fill out my U18s, even though 100ish PA is already becoming a long-shot to get much developmental time with our first team.

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Heading into the last two matches we controlled our own destiny - we're 6th on 26 points, LASK a point behind us. We play bottom of the table, recently promoted Poelten and then 2nd Rapid. LASK has Altach (5th) and Blau-Weiss Linz (11th). After all the points thrown away, an expected win for us and a loss for LASK clinches a return to the Championship Stage.

We do this:

Missed penalty, early goal, domination... then concede a goal in stoppage time. Against the worst team in the league with a spot in the Championship Stage nearly in our grasp.

LASK then draws against Altach. We're still a point ahead heading into the last match week, but you'd expect LASK to walk away with all three points against an opponent that's been struggling all season. For some reason the final round of matches don't all start at the same time, and the expected happens. Now we've got to beat Rapid away.

In the 73' (30b) Wagner, the 16 year old, smashes a shot from the edge of the box that evades the keeper but not the crossbar, deflecting up and all the way to the far wing. Otto scoops up the ball, finds (26b) Michaud standing on the six yard box for a tap-in. We've got a lead. Can we hold it for once?

Barely. So very barely. Stoppage time sees (23*) Dankert deflects wide Rapid's own chance from inside our six yard box.

Relegation is now firmly off the table. Any chance at European competitions are an unlikely bonus.

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Started poking around because Altach has once again fallen behind on matches and this is very interesting.

 

Vaduz had previously won promotion to the top Swiss League and have turned into a great side with a great deal of money (judging by the contracts their players on). Which is of course great for Liechtenstein, but bad for me poaching any players.

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Fell behind on updates here, but that had a lot to do with there being very little noteworthy happening in our Championship Stage. We briefly had a shot to catch Sturm Graz or Vienna but never truly were in it. No excuse of injuries this time either.

 

Fascinating! He has 6 caps for Liechtenstein already so must feel like he's still eligible to switch and good enough.

 

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We are now in the middle of a very interesting transfer window since (1) we don't have any obvious players I want to sell for significant money, but (2) we need to sell at least one player for significant money or risk bad behavior by our Board.

Many clubs from the middle- and bottom- of top leagues are nosing around Backhaus, with a few of the same taking a look at (27g) Emmerling plus Altach and LASK domestically. Thankfully neither has any interest in those actually inquiring so I've been able to highball and not fret the rejections. I am a little unsure if I should be selling one of these two, either now or in January. We'd be undeniably worse for it but if we need to sell it may be better to do it on our terms.

Another wrinkle - Backhaus has a $5.25M release clause. He's just about it worth it. Would it be better to sell him for just under it and bolster it with clauses? For the moment I'm sitting tight on both until the end of the summer transfer window to see what plays out.

(26h) Bertl does end up getting sold by PSV in the very next transfer window. I briefly had the chance to cash in the sell-on here for <$30K so I did not. Looks like we'll receive nothing additional there (although that was expected from the beginning), but the solidarity fee is a nice cherry.

I also briefly had a chance to cash in (26f) Voigt's 50% sell-on clause for $514K and passed. We only sold for for $400K so that means the breakeven is $1.4M-ish. I have a hard time believing he's sold for that; however the option to sell went away. Wait! A month later it's back! Now for $570K. Decent chance it reappears later for another few thousand higher? Nah, I think we'll take it. Gets us back to essentially zero with the fee above.

I've also sent 6 players on loan to the First Division for the first time. (28f) Altwicker is the only one with high enough potential to have a shot at the first team, but in a perfect world the other 5 raise their value for sales.

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year

Strangely enough, the games align this year despite 5 sides playing in League Phases (1 CL, 3 EL, 1 EC). I think that's part of the struggles for Rapid and Vienna. Surprise leader at this point with Wolfsberger; I have a hard time believing they're for real.

We're in the mix yet again and it would not be surprising to see things yet again hinge on a point here or there, or even GD.

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Let's see how this plays out. Five out of five stars, would order again.

 

EDIT: This might derail it?

 

Out of my hands then. I think he turns it down unless they back up a dump truck of money... which they might.

 

EDIT x2: It did not. More than a little annoyed he stayed in our league after all that interest from elsewhere. At least that solves our current financial crisis, taking us from $2.4M in the red to $2.7 in the positive.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Ceching You Out

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Not very good. Not very good at all. Okay maybe that's an exaggeration, but it definitely feels like a step backward.

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Our worst "regular" season in the top flight so far, finishing 9th and heading to the Relegation Stage. We did not fair well in the second half of the season, partly because of Backhaus' departure and partly because of a plethora of new contract requests that make little sense (from a club perspective).

 

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We slowly drifted out of contention towards the back end of the "regular" season, and continued that way in the Relegation Stage. Things weren't quite clicking and that was okay. Relegation was off the table and so were European spots. Until we found a bit of form in our last few games after a tactical tweak.

So we entered the last two match weeks knowing that we'd jump into a playoff spot if Blau-Weiss or Altach dropped points and we won out.

No luck in the first set of matches, so Altach was essentially through with a GD we couldn't touch in even one (lopsided) game. We play at home versus an already-relegated Tirol; Blau-Weiss play Poelten. I'm expecting Ws on both sides. But no score updates from Blau-Weiss. We can't score before half, hitting the post twice and creating solid xG. But in silver linings, still no updates from the other match.

Minute 55 Tirol floats a cross into the box. Our normally reliable GK runs from his line to catch it. He does not find himself even in the same postage code when it's headed into the empty net behind him. It's the worst team in the league. The league! We're not out of this yet.

Minute 69 our hotshot wide forward (30b) Wagner, an overperformer for most of the season, chops down a Blau-Weiss player from behind. Penalty. They convert. Now I'm beginning to get a little worried. A lot worried.

We huff and we puff and we... get nothing. (27g) Emmerling has quite possibly the worst game in his career, spurning easy chances and finishing with a 6.2 rating. Poelten beat Blau-Weiss on a late PK. Joy.

 

That sequence of events does sum up our season nicely. We played well in spurts, but never really put it all together. And even when things broke our way, we weren't shy about shooting ourselves in the foot. Time to do some serious thinking about who we sign to new deals versus who we try to cash in on. This last batch of youth make me think that upgrading our youth facilities could be important - that's going to take a shovel-full of money from a pile that's already dwindled back to $600k before season end.

 

Open Questions

• How will our loan experiment play out when it comes to selling this summer?
• Is it worth trying to "flip" players for cash given where we're at? There are a couple of Vaduz players finishing their contracts that are good not great and fairly close to their potential
• Can we generate enough cash to fund next year and safely upgrade Youth Facilities?
• How high are we willing to adjust our wage structure to resign, say, Otto? He's not the only one.

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I'm not quite sure what I'm doing, but this feels like it couldn't hurt?

EDIT: Turns out I was too ambitious in selecting a Belgian club and now I have to wait to ask again.