What are players selling for in your save?

[fivetwelvepony]

So, it's the year 2037. (A 34 year old Gio Reyna has just been sold to Legia for $450k, just in case you've been watching Dortmund and wondering how things turn out for the kid.) I have just begun to pay attention to what is happening on the transfer market generally, and not just looking at the valuations the game puts on players. I am trying to understand what prices other teams sell and buy players, how this varies by position, that sort of thing.

I'm curious about what year it is in your save and what players are selling for. I thought there could be some interesting nuggets of wisdom about how actual sales prices vary across the different saves, and by position within save. Some seasons, my impression is that some positions go for cut rate prices (last season I bought two top notch wingers for $25m each to be backups, guys I thought good enough to be starters for CL caliber teams), and I was wondering if that is just fluctuations in supply and demand.

In my save, the summer transfer window of the year 2037 just wrapped up. Here are the top 5 incoming transfers in the top five leagues according to max value, and the positions they are natural at. I put my perception of their primary position first.

Premier league: Fullback/DM, $126m; W/AMC, $121m; W/F $84; CM/AMC, $80m; CM/AMC/W: $74m;

La Liga: W, $109m; CD/FB $99m; W $77m; W/AMC ; F $67m; W $33.5m

Bundesliga: CM, $109; W, $75m; CM $67m; CM/AMC $49m; F/W $40.5m

Serie A: AMC/DM, $72m; DM/CM, $49m; F, $48m; CM/DM $48m; W/FB $43.5m

Ligue 1: CD $48m; DM,FB, 39.5m; GK, $32.5m; FB $25.5m

Ligue 1 had an abnormally down year for purchases, normally they come in a little higher.

A few thoughts -- first, the top end was lighter than I expected. There were four sales above $100m, but tops was $126m. It fits with my perception that teams rarely pay full retail, instead waiting around for bargains. Just for context, in real life, the highest sales by year were $167m in 2019, $190.4m in 2018, and $264m in 2017 (after 1.19 Euro-dollar  exchange rate). Second, there are relatively few sales of CMs and DMs at the high end. Good central mids and DMs could be in short supply and so less likely to be moved, or these positions are more specialized to a system and turnover less as a consequence. Third, my hunch that strikers are not going for high value seems right, as they are underrepresented in this group. I think there is an overabundance of high ability strikers in my save, especially AFs. In real life, if you look at the all-time top 10 transfers by value, 8 of the 10 are wingers or forwards, with a few like Griezmann and Neymar hard to categorize as one or the other.  Finally, on a personal level I think I'm doing better selling players than I thought, but I probably pay full retail too often on the buying side. Maybe my board was right and I did pay over odds for that awesome Anchorman.

What about the top incoming transfer by year in my save? Here is premier league and la liga. (I didn't add La Liga until 2028 to my save mostly by accident but also because I was managing MLS until then)

Premier League: 2036: $106m; 2035 $110m; 2034 $138m ; 2033 $130m; 2032 160m; 2031 142m; 2030 112m; 2029 150m; 2028 235m; 2027 95m; 2026 219m; 2025 172m; 2024 159m;  2023 123m; 2022 167m; 2021 150m; 2020 125m; 2019 133m

La Liga (Basically Real Madrid) 2037 $99m; 2036 $205; 2035 $115; 2034 $146; 2033: $90; 2032 $174; 2031 $81; 2030 $104; 2029 $171; 2028 $118; 

In the premier league, most of the big transfers happened in the 2020s, and the top end has tailed off since then. This is less true of La Liga. One hypothesis is that the AI is not that great at managing transfer budgets, and since I added La Liga later they have had less time to screw it up.

Sorry for the long post, but I asked for data, so I thought the least I could do was provide some myself.

[Phillybear]

Very good information. It confirms my suspicion of good CM/DM in short supply due to the performance rating system. When youth development relies on match performance, and its rating system is not working properly (goal scorers and passers rated more highly than defending), then defenders are less developed than attackers. Consequently, the ones that stand out thanks to naturally high CA/PA get the big money.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Phillybear

[Norfair]

I'm in the year 2069 in my save. The top transfers between AI teams the last few years are:

2068/69: £115M, DC, from Barcelona to Liverpool

2067/68: £97M, ST, from Lazio to Southampton

2066/67: £64M, MC, from Lyon to Spurs (a greek player I wanted, and should have fought harder for, MCs are in short supply in my save and I still need one)

2065/66: £133M, ST, from West Ham to Huddersfield. A shockingly high transfer fee, who knew Huddersfield had such money? This was for a player I trained from ages 15-20 or so, a monster striker that I didn't have room for.

2064/65: £67M, ST, from Inter to Southampton

2063/64: £94M, MC, from Inter to Man City, another player I definitely should have gotten. Absolute world class central midfielder, model citizen, he's 27 now and I'm considering paying some £200M-£250M to buy him from City, even at age 27.

 

The highest I've paid so far is £225M for an italian central defender from Man Utd some 15 seasons back, absolutely worth the money too, still has the goal record for defenders for the club. It's rare I buy anyone over 20 though but there are exceptions.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Norfair
a digit

[fivetwelvepony]

On 22/10/2020 at 11:29, Norfair said:

I'm in the year 2069 in my save. The top transfers between AI teams the last few years are:

2068/69: £115M, DC, from Barcelona to Liverpool

2067/68: £97M, ST, from Lazio to Southampton

2066/67: £64M, MC, from Lyon to Spurs (a greek player I wanted, and should have fought harder for, MCs are in short supply in my save and I still need one)

2065/66: £133M, ST, from West Ham to Huddersfield. A shockingly high transfer fee, who knew Huddersfield had such money? This was for a player I trained from ages 15-20 or so, a monster striker that I didn't have room for.

2064/65: £67M, ST, from Inter to Southampton

2063/64: £94M, MC, from Inter to Man City, another player I definitely should have gotten. Absolute world class central midfielder, model citizen, he's 27 now and I'm considering paying some £200M-£250M to buy him from City, even at age 27.

 

The highest I've paid so far is £225M for an italian central defender from Man Utd some 15 seasons back, absolutely worth the money too, still has the goal record for defenders for the club. It's rare I buy anyone over 20 though but there are exceptions.

Wow, 2069. Nice work. Not a lot of inflation in the game. I guess the developers don't want to take a stand on monetary policy.

Interesting that your top transfer fees are less than in my save, and I thought mine seemed a little low.

[Norfair]

21 minutes ago, fivetwelvepony said:

Wow, 2069. Nice work. Not a lot of inflation in the game. I guess the developers don't want to take a stand on monetary policy.

Interesting that your top transfer fees are less than in my save, and I thought mine seemed a little low.

Well, mine are from the Premier League only, I'm not sure how to include other leagues? It's possible this would yield higher results, I have the five big leagues loaded, had only the PL loaded up until 2050 or so when I decided I needed the other big leagues as well.