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Collaborative CSE Youth Intake/Player Development Analysis and Experiment


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For the past few years I have run experiments holidaying far in the future to see changes in the game and to analyze regens as they came through various youth systems. This is my FM2010 version: http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/201098-Youth-Intake-Analysis

Of course I would like to be able to do something similar this year, but I am unlikely to be able to provide that level of daily work to get very far. I think that the best way of moving forwards with this is to get a group of people to work together to create the data and then we can all analyze it for the information that we find most interesting. I am making this thread to gauge interest level for this thing with the hopes of creating a test version for the 11.2.1 patch now that Genie Scout 11 is out before we do the main version after the 3rd patch.

Ideally someone would be the primary person for holidaying the game. I would do it, but my computer is extremely slow and I would like to load more leagues than I have in the past. This person would then either be responsible for creating the data files or if they have fast internet, could upload each save after each season and have someone else create those files. This person would need a decent computer, Genie Scout, and software that compresses files (remember that Genie Scout cannot handle compression from the game itself). I would help anyone who is unfamiliar with the necessary steps learn them and running a test now would certainly make it easier later. This is certainly going to be a big time commitment and if people want to switch off on this every so often, that could be a good idea.

If the game files are uploaded each season, then two people can be responsible for downloading the files and creating data and screenshots. Ideally we could host all relevant screenshots in the same place, but I will not have the hosting ability that I did for last year. The data person (something I would be willing to do) would use Genie Scout to create shortlist files and .csv files for use in Excel or other data analysis tools. Once all of that data is created, anyone could then use it to study the things that interest them the most. We can have some set research questions to answer each period or we can do things as we come up with them. I figure that having more people involved will lead to a bigger variety of questions to ask and we will have more to learn.

What sorts of things can we study? With an annual check-in date, regen generation is a big deal. PA, CA, nationality, quality by club, and initial attribute and position distribution will provide all sorts of data to look at. Now that multiple leagues seem to be a component of the experiment, interaction between the leagues has become more interesting. Tracking the movement of players and coaches across borders will definitely be involved. Club information is also interesting to study as time passes and dynamic league reputation is clearly going to change the way we look at things in this version. Player development is also interesting. I have tracked players at a specific club and the top players, but this can be broadened with more people participating.

Please leave a reply if you are able to contribute in any way. I really feel that having more people involved can raise this experiment to a new level and we can find out much more about the FM world. Even coming in later and asking questions can direct research and encourage us to come up with new ways of looking at data. I intend to continue to make full use of the tools available to study and capture the numbers generated in game. If a couple volunteers jump on board quickly, we can start a test run to see how this will work best before a final version starts after the last patch.

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What leagues should we load this year? England has been the main subject of all of my experiment and I would like to move away from there if people want that. The only restriction is computer speed as we want to reach far into the future and all the leagues have to reset on the same date, which is why Austria was paired with England last time. June 20th is the biggest day for resets, with a variety of choices across Europe. I would like to try a different set and differnet day in our test than in the final version. Europe will have to be focus given the league distribution, but other leagues could be included. Genie Scout appears to have difficulties with some names, so that might limit us as well. Here is the full list by date:

Chile 1-Jan

Brazil 2-Jan

Iceland 5-Jan

Ireland 5-Jan

Finland 7-Jan

Colombia 10-Jan

Singapore 10-Jan

China 20-Jan

Norway 20-Jan

Peru 28-Jan

Belarus 14-Feb

Australia 20-Jun

Croatia 20-Jun

France 20-Jun

Germany 20-Jun

Greece 20-Jun

Hungary 20-Jun

Israel 20-Jun

N. Ireland 20-Jun

Scotland 20-Jun

Switzerland 20-Jun

Turkey 20-Jun

Ukraine 20-Jun

Wales 20-Jun

Austria 25-Jun

England 25-Jun

Slovakia 29-Jun

Belgium 30-Jun

Czech Republic 30-Jun

Denmark 30-Jun

Indonesia 30-Jun

Italy 30-Jun

Poland 30-Jun

Portugal 30-Jun

Bulgaria 1-Jul

Romania 1-Jul

Slovenia 1-Jul

Holland 7-Jul

Serbia 10-Jul

Spain 10-Jul

Argentina 15-Jul

India 15-Jul

South Africa 15-Jul

Mexico 20-Jul

Hong Kong 1-Aug

Uruguay 1-Aug

Sweden 1-Dec

Malaysia 15-Dec

Russia 27-Dec

South Korea 27-Dec

USA 27-Dec

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The youth intake thread was one of my favourite reads through FM10. Unfortunately, while I would love to offer to help out, I have a dinosaur PC that struggles to run even one league at a reasonable pace and my available free time is such that I'm not sure I could dedicate myself to this.

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I have a decent laptop spec, and my current career game has 133 (or was it 134... :p) leagues. Might get a newer one too soon, and I've had lots of experience of testing large league saves so I don't think it'll be a major problem (but it really all depends how long into the future you really do want to holiday into...). But mind holidaying is really all I can (or really want to) do because I have uni coursework to worry about till April (and quite possibly a job after that) and I'm really horrible and slow at updating things. And I've more than had enough of analyzing data in stats class (:p) so really holidaying is all I can do.

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The youth intake thread was one of my favourite reads through FM10. Unfortunately, while I would love to offer to help out, I have a dinosaur PC that struggles to run even one league at a reasonable pace and my available free time is such that I'm not sure I could dedicate myself to this.

Thanks for the kind words. The dinosaur PC problem is finally getting to me too and yes it does take quite a bit of free time, which I have less of all the time.

I am starting a thread of my own and would happily collaberate.

Looks good. I will comment in your thread.

I have a decent laptop spec, and my current career game has 133 (or was it 134... :p) leagues. Might get a newer one too soon, and I've had lots of experience of testing large league saves so I don't think it'll be a major problem (but it really all depends how long into the future you really do want to holiday into...). But mind holidaying is really all I can (or really want to) do because I have uni coursework to worry about till April (and quite possibly a job after that) and I'm really horrible and slow at updating things. And I've more than had enough of analyzing data in stats class (:p) so really holidaying is all I can do.

Hey rancer, how's life in my neighbor (or neighbour) to the north Canuckistan? Doing the holidaying would be a huge favor for all of us, especially if you have a fast computer. I am going to hold off on doing anything until we see how Evil's project is working. We could run a couple of speed tests soon to see how fast we can get various setups to work. Do you still have FM10 on your computer? Also, do you have access to fast uploading speeds from school?

Poll question for everyone on Excel Files. I was thinking of arranging files either by game year or intake year. Game year means only 1 file is made per year, but it is harder to track changes year by year quickly. Intake year means updating up to 25 files per year of the experiment and could lead to misplaced and misnamed labels, but is easier to follow on a year by year basis.

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Hey rancer, how's life in my neighbor (or neighbour) to the north Canuckistan? Doing the holidaying would be a huge favor for all of us, especially if you have a fast computer. I am going to hold off on doing anything until we see how Evil's project is working. We could run a couple of speed tests soon to see how fast we can get various setups to work. Do you still have FM10 on your computer? Also, do you have access to fast uploading speeds from school?

Poll question for everyone on Excel Files. I was thinking of arranging files either by game year or intake year. Game year means only 1 file is made per year, but it is harder to track changes year by year quickly. Intake year means updating up to 25 files per year of the experiment and could lead to misplaced and misnamed labels, but is easier to follow on a year by year basis.

Snow rovers. Lots of it. Southern Ontario and the Northeast US are getting loads of the white slushy stuff. :(

And yes I still have FM10 on my computer (and even WWSM09..lol). My upload speeds depends at school. Internet can get slow during peak hours here and my home internet (well more like my router decided to commit suicide) is a little fecked atm unless I plug my laptop with a land line. It really depends on how many leagues you fancy loading. If it gets too big I rather upload it as a torrent or use a program like HJSplit to upload them in manageable chunks.

I'm indifferent about arranging files by game year or intake year, intake year is obviously better, but then I would have to upload files a lot more hehe.

I just need an exact number of leagues, and if you're willing to add xml files or just keep the leagues out of the box. My limit is 125k players.

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racner and trotter 13,

Whenver you get the chance, please try a couple tests for me. I will be uploading a save game soon, 4 countries and around 15 leagues from 2014. Holiday it to June 30, 2015 and tell me how long it takes on your computer. If you have FM10 on your computer, please download this save game from 2209 and holiday it one year forward to June 25, 2210 and again tell me how long it takes to get there. http://www.megaupload.com/?d=SFDEIY4A

If we can get a couple people who are capable of holidaying, then we can switch off and not create too much of a burden on any one person. If you holiday and upload the save, then you would not be on the hook for creating data files or anything else. If you have trouble uploading big files, then you would need to create those other smaller Genie Scout files for upload. Please tell me if you have trouble finding compression software. I found last year that WinZip gets a pretty solid compression ratio on FM saves.

As for leagues, I do not really know how much would be considered a lot, which is why I would like to run some tests. Of course, the final selection will be determined in part from your suggestions. At a minimum I am thinking of Germany, Ukraine, Greece or Switzerland, Wales, and Croatia or Hungary. France, Israel, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are the other options.

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That sounds like a pretty decent rate and if it is even faster without autosave then I have no problems burdening those with fast computers out there. The more precision on how long it takes, the better so that I have an idea of appropriate league numbers.

Here is the test file for those who want to measure holiday speeds. Italy, Portugal, Belgium, and the Czech Republic with all leagues and a large database in 2014. The date to move it to is June 30, 2015. Thanks to anyone willing to do this and possibly volunteer in the future.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=AMIXBR39

Now for a little bit more of what we can expect. I have created the shortlists and Excel files for the initial intakes in my test game. Here is the link for Italy:

http://www.filefront.com/17789757/10ita10.xls

If you take a look at it, you will notice that I decided to include pretty much everything available. If there are useless columns (like the division for now), then we can take those out for the final version. Why do we need this raw data? Once we have this data we can run a huge variety of statistics on it. The second tab of the spreadsheet has a basic pivot table on it. That is an Excel tools we can use to categorize and evaluate data in a number of ways. From copying the data to the first tab, it took me less than a minute to create a table like this:

demopivot.jpg

Depending on how you like your data organized, you can easily create your own based on what I started. For instance, I created a 20x20 matrix that had left-footedness on the rows and right-footedness on the columns. I can now tell you that 56 of the 309 left-footed Italian regens (out of 1254 total) had a right-footedness of 8 out of 20. Anyone who wants to contribute to the data analysis portion of the project may want to get their feet wet with this feature of Excel and play around with the test data.

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Thank you to you both for running those. I am quite surprised by your results there rancer, although if you ran them back to back, that might have slowed down the 2nd test. We will probably look to run only the minimal amount of leagues that will give us a good spread. I am thinking Germany, Greece, Switzerland, Hungary, and Wales, but we can continue to decide before the last patch arrives.

Trotter13, you seem to have the faster computer, so it looks like you can be the lead guy on holidaying forward. If uploading is too slow for you then rancer can take over. Tell me if you need compression software, although you should be able to find some free stuff out there. This test save is really for testing, so no hurry on more years, but it is useful practice to get in a routine, but just do them whenver you feel that you have time and if you anticipate a prolonged absence, you can upload and pass to rancer. If we get a decent amount of data, we can then compare results with our final save to see if the patch changes anything. If you still have the save at 30 June 2015, then you could rename it according to our current convention, CSETest2015, zip it and upload it. Any future saves would need to be saved on their own and uploaded before you can delete the old ones so that we can make sure that we get the data. Megaupload seems to be pretty good for hosting. Holiday to the 30th of June in every year except for leap years, when you need to holiday to the 29th. Getting to the right date is actually pretty important for the purposes of extracting data.

I would like any ideas how to get a few more people involved, if not in collecting data or anything official, just at least reading and asking questions. I feel that this will work better with more open-endedness. While my past experiments covered a ton of information, it was really geared towards answering my questions about regens and the game. Things that matter to me like regen nationality may not be as big a deal for other users. The amount of data we have means that we can conduct all kinds of studies. We can calculate correlations of various attributes and can focus on different clubs more easily. Anyone active on any other forums could certainly bring this up so that we can collect more research questions to try to answer. People with Excel knowledge would be very helpful at using the data we produce into a presentable form. Also, if some volunteers are able to be a part of the data collection process, I would like to be able to have one person per country in the final experiment.

Here are some of the research questions that I have sought to answer in previous years and would like to add to:

What nationalities are the regens that typically come through a country?

Which clubs produce the top potential regens?

How do top regens reach their potential?

What attributes and club situations help players grow?

What quality regens can be expected from one club?

How does a club's fortunes affect regen production?

What happens to the various youth team players after they leave their starting club?

How does the decline of a player look from the CA perspective?

When do players choose to retire?

How many players go on to become staff?

What happens in the football world of FM after long periods of time?

Does the choice of leagues affect player and staff movement between active leagues compared to inactive ones?

What happens to a league over time as teams improve?

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what compression software have you got? i've got winRAR but the compression ratio is only 99%, do you know if there is any software that can compress it more because i can holiday 3 seasons in the time it takes to upload 1?

i have a question for the research, What attributes (if any) determine what staff role a player chooses after he retires?

CSETest2015

CSETest2016

CSETest2017

CSETest2018

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I found the compression difference trotter. You use the FM save game compression setting, so the file is about as small as it can get before you upload it. If you keep using that setting, then you do not need to also apply additional compression to it. The downsides are that I have to uncompress them to get Genie Scout to open to them and they take longer to save and open then uncomprssed FM games, but you can keep using it. You just appear to have slow upload times. My internet is quite slow, but it took about 40 minutes to upload the 2015 game. Maybe you can let rancer have a crack at running a few years to see if his overall time for holidaying and uploading is faster.

Now something for anyone following along. I have completed five years of spreadsheets and other assorted files and have zipped them together. Each spreadsheet includes a pivot table already, so if you mess around with those settings, you can analyze your own parts of the data.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=T87DZ7U0

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My internet was a little slow and sometimes I lose connection to the laptop, but right now it seems a little better and got a new router in the process. But I'm not sure how the upload speeds would be for larger files (well depends how big they are).

As for holidaying speeds, they're not that bad considering my specs, and I usually multitask on my laptop so the speed isn't really that bad.

And for this experiment a good question would be to test regens that go through the MLS draft and whether long term there is a balance between current real life players, and newgens far into the future.

Additionally, is there a sense of unpredictability of the Superdraft? Or are 1st round picks are guaranteed to do better than 4th rounders? And are these picks properly developed by their respective clubs or do they rely on existing players and foreigners (in FM)?

MLS is an interesting league compared to the other leagues around the world and should be an interesting league for this experiment.

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i got to 2021 yesterday, i will upload the 2021 save tonight and the rest tomorrow. that way rancer can continue with it if he wants.

rancer do you want to share holidaying with me, it will work if we post a measage when we start holidaying and make sure the latest season is always uploaded?

Edit: i'll have to upload the 2021 save tomorrow because there was an error.

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rancer, MLS would be fascinating for an experiment. I've never run it without managing in it. Is the information on the draft and Generation Adidas easily available as an unemployed manager? I would certainly like to know if the drafting mechanism is good at identifying the underclass talent. It would also be interesting to see if teams pick the best player available or if they pick based on positional need.

Great job trotter. You have been able to get way further than I would have if I were doing the whole thing. As it is now I am struggling to keep up with your pace. Hopefully we can find some more people to help with stat work before I have to update 20 intakes per country!

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i got to 2021 yesterday, i will upload the 2021 save tonight and the rest tomorrow. that way rancer can continue with it if he wants.

rancer do you want to share holidaying with me, it will work if we post a measage when we start holidaying and make sure the latest season is always uploaded?

Edit: i'll have to upload the 2021 save tomorrow because there was an error.

I don't mind. I just need to know which seasons to holiday...

rancer, MLS would be fascinating for an experiment. I've never run it without managing in it. Is the information on the draft and Generation Adidas easily available as an unemployed manager? I would certainly like to know if the drafting mechanism is good at identifying the underclass talent. It would also be interesting to see if teams pick the best player available or if they pick based on positional need.

Great job trotter. You have been able to get way further than I would have if I were doing the whole thing. As it is now I am struggling to keep up with your pace. Hopefully we can find some more people to help with stat work before I have to update 20 intakes per country!

Yes after the draft you can see who the teams drafted. In the draft menu iirc. It would be interesting if holidayed far into the future whether the USMNT would be dominant because in my experience the drafted players aren't really that good in FM...

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I don't mind. I just need to know which seasons to holiday...

Yes after the draft you can see who the teams drafted. In the draft menu iirc. It would be interesting if holidayed far into the future whether the USMNT would be dominant because in my experience the drafted players aren't really that good in FM...

do you want to take it turns holidaying? i have wednesday and friday off collage, so i could do it wednesday to saturday and you could do sunday to tuesday (or something like that). i am uploading the save now, there is about a hour until it's done.

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Great, was at 70% then looked at it 5 minutes later and it was at 8%. next chance i'll get to upload it is probably wednesday.

Great job trotter. You have been able to get way further than I would have if I were doing the whole thing. As it is now I am struggling to keep up with your pace.

guess you have caught up now roversawh (or will do.

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rancer, holiday to June 29th for leap years and June 30th for all other years. Save each year separately and keep the naming convention. If you use compressed saves in FM11, there is no need to compress it again. Otherwise compress it to a zip before uploading it.

trotter, if Megaupload is giving you problems you can try a different upload site. I just finished making spreadsheets for the 2017 one, so still not caught up.

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Thanks for those trotter.

rancer, we are all working from the same save now, so if you could wait for trotter to upload his 2021 or whatever is his latest, then you can holiday from there. Did Anderlecht get knocked off in your alternative save? They seem to have an unfair advantage with Lukaku still there.

Here is the link for the spreadsheets from 2010 to 2018. If anyone new wants to pitch in on making these I can show you how.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=98G5TXQM

Quick observations so far. Belgium is a great place to play if you want to get some interesting nationalities among your youth. Only half of the regens or so are single-nationality Belgians. The Czech Republic is on the opposite end of that spectrum and there are barely any other nationalities.

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Thanks for those trotter.

rancer, we are all working from the same save now, so if you could wait for trotter to upload his 2021 or whatever is his latest, then you can holiday from there. Did Anderlecht get knocked off in your alternative save? They seem to have an unfair advantage with Lukaku still there.

Here is the link for the spreadsheets from 2010 to 2018. If anyone new wants to pitch in on making these I can show you how.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=98G5TXQM

Quick observations so far. Belgium is a great place to play if you want to get some interesting nationalities among your youth. Only half of the regens or so are single-nationality Belgians. The Czech Republic is on the opposite end of that spectrum and there are barely any other nationalities.

Ok rovers, I will just go from trotter's saves and holiday them. Although he's already at 2021 so I will have to wait for that.

An interesting observation not from these saves but my own career about Belgium. I'm seeing some Belgian/Chinese newgens, and they're not from a single club, but from several lower league teams. I've never seen this in previous FMs (and mind, I manage in China ALOT in every FM and I never seen this before!). Does Belgium have a large Chinese population IRL?

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Looks like you have your save then rancer. No hurry on 2021-23 trotter, I have only pulled the initial data for 2019 and 2020. Great work as usual.

Yes rancer, Belgium does get a fair number of Chinese (and Japanese) regens. As near as I can gather, the country does not have any substantial population of either. Also relevant to us is the Belgian/American and Belgian/Canadian regens that seem to come through. Take a look at some of the tables in the spreadsheets to get an idea of the variety.

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Any updates from either of you? I am ready for 2021-23 now trotter.

Thanks again for both of you, but I continue to think that we will need some other contributors on the data end to make this run more smoothly in the final version, so anyone out there who would like to learn how to make the spreadsheets, let me know.

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looks like i left auto-save on again (because there are 5 versions of 2021) and it overwrite the 2021 save while i was holidaying the 2022 season. rancer, holiday the 2020 one i posted.

roversawh, do you want me to do some spreadsheets?

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Ah the autosave strikes again. Thank you for figuring that out and yes, rancer, use the 2021 one from here on out. Getting to the right date is important as being off by even a day or two can make it hard to separate the regens properly.

trotter, I can certainly walk you through the spreadsheet process and perhaps hand off one country to you if you want the practice. In the long-term, keep focusing on the holidaying since you probably have the fastest computer among us. What is your level of familiarity and comfort with FM Genie Scout and Excel? You may need to download the first beta of Genie Scout. I will need to zip and upload a bunch of shortlist files for you before you can get started and of course we will wait for 2021 from rancer (you can also practice on your own files from the future).

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Steps to do one country's spreadsheets:

1. Load save into Genie Scout. Check date at bottom right corner. Ensure that right layout is loaded for players (Includes all attributes) and sort players by PA.

2. Import first shortlist (2010) from main menu.

3. Export shortlist data to html format from main menu. Name html (year of game)(country abbreviation, either ita, por, bel, or cze)(year of intake, 10 in this case)

4. Continue steps 2 and 3 for every year up to the present one. Clear shortlist between imports.

5. To find current year regens, click the player search button (red with magnifying glass). Type country in field for "Based" and you can tick the regen box if there are still a lot of real players left in the game.

6. Once the results come up, click the "Con" column to sort by condition. All regens start at perfect condition. Select the first entry, and then scroll down until there are players with less than perfect condition. You can also see place of separation when the player PA jumps from lower to higher since the list is secondarily sorted by PA. Add all those players to shortlist by right-clicking.

7. Click the my shortlist tab on the menu bar and sort the shortlist by age. Delete the players that are above the typical age for regens (17 and higher usually and often 16 for Czechs). This will remove the players that sneak through the condition sort and also get rid of the extra regens generated by the game to make up the numbers for newly-promoted teams.

8. Sort the shortlist by PA and then save it as a shortlist file from the main menu. Name it using the convention (year)(country abbreviation)(year).

9. Export the shortlist as you would for other years. It should have the same name as the new shortlist file after using the convention.

10. Create the new Excel file. Name it using the convention (year)(country abbreviation)(earliest year contained in file)"to"(last year contained in file, should be same as first number in the file name). You will need two worksheets per intake year and one Excel file per country per game year.

11. Open up the first html file. Select everything and paste it into an Excel worksheet. Each data worksheet should be named using the convention (country abbreviation)(intake year)"data". Name the next worksheet using the convention (country abbreviation)(intake year)"table".

12: Delete the expression at the bottom of the data "Exported by FM Genie Scout" and expand the column "Unique ID" (the last one) so that the numbers can be fully seen to 10 digits. Select all of the remaining data.

13: Select the Pivot Table and Pivot Chart Report from the Data menu. Select the first option in each category and press next. Ensure that the right range of data is selected in the next menu and press next.

14: Select the existing worksheet option and click on the worksheet you have named for a table and click on A1 cell there. Click on Layout and drag "Nation" to row and to data. Data should display "Count of Nation". Click okay and then click Finish.

15: Repeat for each intake year that will be included in the spreadsheet and save final product.

16: Zip together any spreadsheets that have not been uploaded and upload them.

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Thanks for that rancer.

In my boredom I have been working on a more big picture part of the experiment. I combined all the regen data for regens at the moment of their spawning and have a separate worksheet for each country. I have only done a little bit of analysis but uploading the file should allow anyone else to do any number of interesting things with it. The fifth worksheet has four pivot tables for each country. Again, learning how to work with this tool can allow anyone to quickly analyze new things with only a couple clicks of the mouse. I did the nationality breakdown for each country so far. Belgium only had 54% of its regens as single-nationality Belgium, so it is definitely a place to go if you want some variety in your youth intake. The other 3 countries had well over 90% of its regens with single-nationality. The second table for each country has a breakdown of the average PA and CA of regens for each club over 11 years. The third table breaks down positions of regens. The fourth table covers the right-footedness distribution. Across all 4 countries, a little over 20% of regens were left-footed. I would certainly like to do more work like this and would be even more interested in seeing what others do with the data. I would especially like to see things like correlation between attributes. All suggestions are welcomed and help will be given to those who need it for doing their own arrangements.

Here is the Excel file:

http://www.filefront.com/17854534/10to20master.xls

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Some big picture questions to ponder:

When do we want to stop this test? Obviously we should not holiday it after the new patch comes out, but should we set a goal like 2040?

Do we want to start the new experiment immediately or after Genie Scout comes out? It may take a ways for a working version of Genie Scout to come out, but we could certainly get a huge head start with holidaying.

How do we get more people involved? We could obviously use a little extra help with putting things together, but people just asking questions would be great too.

Any other feedback on the test so far?

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