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Shooting % of defensemen


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Just an update on the simulation. First of all congratulation for the work already done on the simulation engine. At this point, my main concern is the scoring % for the defensemen. The amount of shots apeared ok now. but even with 20/20 on both shots attributes the defensement rarelly trespass the 5%. As a exemple, the best offensive defensemen in NHL history usually optained 12.0% or more. For 260 shots, an elite defenseman is supose to score 20-30 goals, not 5-10!!!

By the way, I did not noticed any strange scoring manners for the Fowards. The relatively low amount of Assists will naturaly grows if defensemen scores the correct share of goals.

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While I agree, with that many shots, more than 5 goals should be scored, the reality is d-men scoring 20 to 30 in today's NHL, no definitely not. The number of d-men who hit that mark in a season is really low. Also take into account Dustin Byfuglien had 347 shots a few years back and only hit 19 goals, which led the league in that year. Chara in that year had 260 shots and 14 goals.

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The talk of D scoring got me curious.....so I took a look, and there have only been 17 occasions in the history of the NHL where a D reached 30 goals (and the only one to do it "recently" is Mike Green six years ago, before that it was back in 1993) http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/most-goals-in-one-season-by-nhl-defensemen.html

In terms of a D scoring 20-29 goals in a season, it's happened 19 times since the 1990s (so 19 times in the last 15 years).

In the 1990s it occurred 38 times, in the 1980s 57 times....

So nowadays it is a pretty rare thing for a D to score 20+ goals in the NHL...

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Hi Nino! You are right. But my point is that in the actual state of EHM EA the defensemen score approximately half their expected share of goals. For the 20+ goals seasons, sure it's have to be exeptional, but not impossible. And the 10+ goals season have to be more frequents for the elite offensive D-men. So if we actualy influence the amount of scoring chances for D-men with the attributes editing, it should be noted in the amount of goals. In one of my tests I lower the goalies. As expected more goals was scored in total, but no great increase for D-men (Sooting % not more than 7%). So it's suggested me that it is a goals distribution problem between Forwards and D-men. Just a thing that was not there in EHM 2007.

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Hi Nino! You are right. But my point is that in the actual state of EHM EA the defensemen score approximately half their expected share of goals. For the 20+ goals seasons, sure it's have to be exeptional, but not impossible.
But IMO 20+ goals isn't a good metric for defensive scoring overall given only 6 players have done so in the last 15 years (so more than 99.97% of D don't ever score 20+ goals)
So if we actualy influence the amount of scoring chances for D-men with the attributes editing, it should be noted in the amount of goals. In one of my tests I lower the goalies. As expected more goals was scored in total, but no great increase for D-men (Sooting % not more than 7%). So it's suggested me that it is a goals distribution problem between Forwards and D-men. Just a thing that was not there in EHM 2007.
I think there'd need to be a lot more tests to have anything conclusive...I wonder if the defensive Player Roles may affect things without even adjusting anything else (notice how there's a defensive role for the D that carries the puck/goes to the net more) & I suspect D scoring is likely influenced by the Player Roles of teammates (again, regardless of Attributes) and coaching style too. And of course Attributes affect things too!

I think when we start editing Attributes/Player Roles/etc in attempt to mediate scoring we need more than just the overall data.....for example, it may be to many/to few occurrences of a specific scoring chance (point shots, deflections, breakaways, two-on-ones, etc) that is most affecting things

I'm certainly glad there's people like yourself looking into things! Riz has noted before that some issues can't be resolved just by fixing one line of code here or there, they require a lot of overall analysis and balancing in the 2D engine, so it takes a lot of time to finetune these things (and I don't get the impression EHM is getting a lot of attention HaHa so it may take some time to get things optimized!)

P.S. Are you sure about the comparison to EHM07 about scoring among forwards/defense? I'm just wondering as I recall defensemen in EHM07 couldn't be (realistically) high scoring D.....I thought in EHM07 defenseman didn't score enough, and in this area EHM:EA was a slight improvement (but still an area of concern)

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Thank you for your rationalized precisions.

P.S. Are you sure about the comparison to EHM07 about scoring among forwards/defense? I'm just wondering as I recall defensemen in EHM07 couldn't be (realistically) high scoring D.....I thought in EHM07 defenseman didn't score enough, and in this area EHM:EA was a slight improvement (but still an area of concern)

In regards to EHM 2007 D-men scoring, for my version of 70's DB I'm able to have 20+ goal for Lapointe, Savard and Potvin (sometime 1-3 others) and 30+ for Orr, with a realistic 9.0% to 13.0% in shots percentage.

Oh! An other big diference between both versions reagarding data edition is that the CA and PA are to be set roughly 15-20% higher for Forwards and D-men for the same attributes (Keepers 10-15% higher).

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Interesting...

Just thought I'd mention (for any/all reading) that the 1974 DB that you started with was in some areas dramatically different than any other DB out there, so insights gained may or may not translate well to a modern DB (I had significantly reduced CA overall, and a number of Attributes overall, and Offensive/Defensive Role was differently distributed)

Oh! An other big diference between both versions reagarding data edition is that the CA and PA are to be set roughly 15-20% higher for Forwards and D-men for the same attributes (Keepers 10-15% higher).
Yeah, it seems the "under the hood" differences in CA/Attribute development is pretty significant (EHM07 and EHM:EA are not the same game! HaHa)

One significant difference is that in EHM:EA the game will at start-up will change Attributes to fit CA (so Attributes as seen in the database may not be those seen in-game!)

Another difference is the effect of Player Role, as EHM:EA will at start-up adjust Attribute distribution based on Player Role, raising/lowering Attribute values if deemed necessary (and if a Player Role hasn't been given to a player, the game will try to determine one based on inputted Offensive/Defensive Role and Attributes; if these are not set a player will be given a Player Role).....and of course this continues to occur yearly or multiple times a year as CA and Attribute development/regression occurs over a player's career

These differences are not yet fully understood by those that have been editing EHM for years! HaHa

I did some testing a few weeks ago and determined that Attributes that did not or rarely changed in EHM07 now change/develop more in EHM:EA!

As well the testing suggested that in EHM:EA some Attribute development for some Attributes may connect to age (and maybe other factors too?) and not just CA.....it seems to me there are a few different "reasons" (like age and CA growth) that cause Attribute change/development to occur, and these reasons are also affected by Player Role (the individual's Player Role promotes/guides Attribute development so that it's realistic for the Player Role).

I think there's a number of bugs/issues that need addressing (such as having the right number of scoring/offensive defenseman, and to have them scoring appropriate amounts of goals/assists.....as well as appropriate number of hits/blocked shots, top centers scoring to little in comparison to wingers, overpracticing players and overplaying players in games having no affect on fatigue, to many players decline severely at age 35, etc)

I'm hopeful the gameplay bugs/issues (like those mentioned above) will get addressed ASAP. For me they are much more important than adding additional Leagues or making UI improvements (I'm all for those too! but IMO fixing such gameplay bugs/issues should be the top/first priority). I think having the gameplay running realistically would also help a lot in determining "how things work" from an editing perspective

I myself haven't been doing much playing/testing lately, as I'm focusing on database work right now (working on the 1974 DB and the 1998 DB) :)

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In my save Erik Kalrsson has in 3 seasons 2.4, 7.0, and 3.4 of shooting percentage. Subban 2.0, 4.1, and 4.2. In the KHL there are similar percentages for top offensive dmen. Considering IRL numbers, I would say that in the game the defenseman should have a little higher shooting percentage, particularly in big ice leagues (IRL in the KHL the percentages are slightly higher). The difference isn't dramatic, but it should be looked into.

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Just an update on the simulation. First of all congratulation for the work already done on the simulation engine. At this point, my main concern is the scoring % for the defensemen. The amount of shots apeared ok now. but even with 20/20 on both shots attributes the defensement rarelly trespass the 5%. As a exemple, the best offensive defensemen in NHL history usually optained 12.0% or more. For 260 shots, an elite defenseman is supose to score 20-30 goals, not 5-10!!!

By the way, I did not noticed any strange scoring manners for the Fowards. The relatively low amount of Assists will naturaly grows if defensemen scores the correct share of goals.

Erik Karlsson shot 7% last season, OEL just under 9%. Elite dmen shouldn't have 12%+ through their career - Karlsson is a 7.1% career shooter. In single seasons you get guys shooting at 10-11% but that's just fluke years. In the past 3 combined seasons, with a minimum of 2000 minutes played, you have two guys over 10% - Nick Holden and Trevor Daley. Then you have 4 guys between 9 and 10%. The 20th guy is at 7.3%. The average is 4.91%.

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