ANALYSIS - Why Juventus got relegated in my save?

[renato.]

Hi guys, I'm managing Sampdoria and in my second season, when I was promoted and tried to survive in Serie A, Juventus ended up relegated.

I have some ideas and thoughts about why this happened, but I want to check your point of view too to see if there is some IA bug regarding squad development or if it's just a random stuff happening, because it can happen (?).

Important factor to consider is that this save was played before the last patch. My screenshots are all in portuguese, sorry.

Here is my save for you guys to download and discuss: https://we.tl/t-GkPoRtf4UP

This is their transfers.  

Edited March 20 by renato.

[XaW]

Well, anything can happen, but I would look at the xG-table to see if it was a fluke or a deserved relegation to start with. Can you post it?

[tezcatlipoca665]

Well, looking at the save, Juventus went from 4th place the first season with 61 goals for and 38 against, whereas in contrast to this season, they've dropped to 28 goals for and 42 against. I took over the team to see what I could find:

- Their xG is minus 15 - the worst in the league, with only Udinese coming close with minus 11. The xGA is 0, so they were on target with that.
- The defensive capabilities are basically the same, but that's a shocking drop in goal difference with what's basically the same team as the previous season. Vlahovic scored 22 goals in 32 league games during the first season, whereas he scored 5 in 21 this season... and was joint-top scorer with Chiesa, who also scored 5 league goals. Vlahovic has been injured since February but was poor when he was playing.
- Glancing over the available games with full detail, Juventus made substitutions purely for (I assume) tactical reasons and not because players were tired. They lost 2-0 in a game against Torino and only used 3 substitutes - and not one of them was for a tired player, nor were they for the worst-performing players.
- Following on from above, it looks like these players were run into the ground. The added CL fixture congestion - something they didn't have to worry about the first season - is probably what killed them.
- Allegri was sacked and replaced with Zidane in December. It didn't make a difference and Zidane was sacked too due to relegation, so it's unlikely (in my view) that this is a normal manager issue.
- Squad dynamics look fine. Rugani wants to leave for a new challenge, but he's listed for transfer since November 2024 (and this is normal behaviour for Rugani in my experience, even with FM23). It's reported that there are 11 unhappy players but no real reported reason, and no signs of a squad mutiny or anything like that - I think a big reason is just not respecting my appointment as manager as I already have 13 players that oppose me in the Squad Hierarchy. Team Cohesion is good. Club Atmosphere is poor, but most likely due to the recent relegation. Overall morale is bad but, again, the actual happiness of the squad is good overall according to the Happiness page where most people are either Content or Slightly Happy.

So it looks like poor logic in sub choices and poor squad rotation - each in relation to player condition and a lack of foresight with fixture congestion - is what undid Juve.

[renato.]

36 minutes ago, XaW said:

Well, anything can happen, but I would look at the xG-table to see if it was a fluke or a deserved relegation to start with. Can you post it?

This? Sorry, I'm a data noob. But Vlahovic got injured in february and their squad is lacking offensive talent (?).