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Moneyballing My Way To A Champions League Title in Every European Nation Part X: The FM23 Experiment


shaunvamos
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Just now, Whalix said:

Do you have more info on your form-based selecting? Is it purely to do with average ratings or do you look for further statistics to back up form?

At the moment it's just based on average rating scaled based on the league reputation. In the next edition of FM I'll incorporate match statistics to generate a predicted match rating rather than the hardcoded one, but that's for the next FM :D 

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August 2037

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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After nearly 150 appearances Caraballo departs for 6m more than we bought him for, and 316 appearance, 138 goal club legend Shay Foy also departs the club after being here for 10 seasons. Our all time league goalscorer will be missed.

 

 

 

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An unbeaten start to the league, but apart from that not much can be made this early.

 

 

 

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We get a fairly tough group, but I'm confident we can handle both Basel and Udinese. Poor Hearts are going to have a tough time though :( Salzburg and Astana as well, and don't even get me started on Group G! 

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September 2037

 

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We're developing a very bad habit of dominating teams but being unable to put them to the sword. We had Real Madrid before they came back to equalise in the last 5 minutes, but we out xG'd them 2-1.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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That form has extended to the international stage, dominating Bulgaria and Israel only to draw, and Israel coming back late as well. We are in serious danger of not qualifying for the World Cup.

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October 2037

 

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Dunfermline of all teams ends our undefeated streak, but we did go a man down early. They and Hibernians have become the surprise frontrunners this season, with Rangers and Celtic both languishing behind.

 

 

National Team

 

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We win the games we needed to, especially against Bulgaria, and we now have Liechtenstein away and France at home. It'll go right down to the wire.

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November 2037

 

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The less said about this month the better. It's been a weird one.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We're through, Bulgaria are through but France miss out :eek: They aren't the only major name to miss out, as Italy finish behind Sweden and Poland! 

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December 2037

 

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We lose our first game in nearly 20 against Rangers, and it wasn't pretty to watch. 

 

 

 

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I really hope we can take care of Braga, but it's been a difficult season for us so who knows.

 

 

 

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January 2038

 

Transfers (In)

 

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Some guys wanted to leave that couldn't break into the first team, so they left.

 

 

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It's the perfect time to hit some form as we smash Hibs to go top of the league. I plan on not letting that lead go now that we've grabbed it.

 

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February 2038

 

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A very busy month, but a very green month as we win every single game.

 

 

 

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We're finally getting lucky with draws, as we draw the Turkish league runners up.

 

 

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March 2038

 

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We are slowly pulling away from Hibernian, and it's really only between the two of us at this point.

 

 

 

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It's very possible that this is where we are eliminated, but we've beaten United before so who knows? Good to see another Scottish team in the quarter finals, even if it is Rangers, and Aberdeen are in the Conference League quarter finals.

 

 

 

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The top 2 in the NxGn list are Scottish, including Billy Rankin, which is interesting because I've dropped him for poor form. 

 

 

 

National Team

 

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Just two friendlies, so nothing too serious here.

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April 2038

 

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We lose to Chelsea by the slimmest of margins, which goes to show that we're almost there in terms of challenging the quality teams. Hibernian smash us out of the cup, but we don't care about that. We got revenge on them in the league to all but wrap up another title.

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One of the best parts about being in Australia is getting to see these updates through the day ;) Great stuff here bud - and really unfortunate against Chelsea but definitely positives to take away for sure. Celtic barely making the top-half is crazy; have they dropped off or are we putting it down to poor form this year?

Either way, all the best for the rest of the season and off-season - closer and closer we get :D

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Rangers whipped our reserves, but we win the league by a substantial margin in the end.

 

 

 

Best XI

 

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Kyle Pearson  -  Jack Gray  -  Scott McGregor

 

Starting to see a very Scottish-centric team developing which is good to see.

 

 

 

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Record Breakers

 

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Award Winners

 

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Progress

 

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52 minutes ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

One of the best parts about being in Australia is getting to see these updates through the day ;) Great stuff here bud - and really unfortunate against Chelsea but definitely positives to take away for sure. Celtic barely making the top-half is crazy; have they dropped off or are we putting it down to poor form this year?

Either way, all the best for the rest of the season and off-season - closer and closer we get :D

Glad to have another Aussie on board :D 

I think Celtic may just be going through a flat period, they finished 5th last season and now 6th this season - we may have contributed as we've taken a few of their good players the last couple of seasons and that coincided with the drop. It's the same with Hearts, they had a good few seasons, we bought their top performing players, and then this year they finished 8th. Are we to blame? I'm merely buying players that are performing well in the hope they can do the same for us, it's not my fault if the club doesn't reinvest properly :kriss:

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3 hours ago, shaunvamos said:

Glad to have another Aussie on board :D 

I think Celtic may just be going through a flat period, they finished 5th last season and now 6th this season - we may have contributed as we've taken a few of their good players the last couple of seasons and that coincided with the drop. It's the same with Hearts, they had a good few seasons, we bought their top performing players, and then this year they finished 8th. Are we to blame? I'm merely buying players that are performing well in the hope they can do the same for us, it's not my fault if the club doesn't reinvest properly :kriss:

Not quite Aussie - yet - hopefully soon haha. That's fair enough with Celtic, love seeing deeper saves where the bigger teams fall off and the smaller clubs start thriving with long-term investment - wish the same could be the case for the Prem. Great stuff though as always

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Scotland's 2038 World Cup Campaign

 

Squad

 

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A younger squad by about a year (27.17), and there are some good up and coming talents included in the squad, particularly Graeme Main, Charlie Paris and our own Shaun Kelly and Ruaridh Harvey. The reason for our domestic dominance is also apparent here, with 6 members of the squad playing for us currently, and also Aiden Hay coming from our academy who is no longer with the club.

 

 

 

Ideal XI

 

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It's a star studded back line, as pretty much everyone plays in the Premier League.

 

 

 

Goalkeeper

 

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Central Defenders

 

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Wing Backs

 

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Defensive Midfielder

 

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Central Midfielders

 

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Strikers

 

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24 minutes ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

Not quite Aussie - yet - hopefully soon haha. That's fair enough with Celtic, love seeing deeper saves where the bigger teams fall off and the smaller clubs start thriving with long-term investment - wish the same could be the case for the Prem. Great stuff though as always

Oh nice! Where from initially? 

Yeah the problem with the prem I think is the big teams always get that huge parachute payment every year as well as the money from Europe and it's basically the rich get richer sort of thing.

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7 minutes ago, shaunvamos said:

Oh nice! Where from initially? 

Yeah the problem with the prem I think is the big teams always get that huge parachute payment every year as well as the money from Europe and it's basically the rich get richer sort of thing.

I'm English, moved to rural NSW around a month and a half ago

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Scotland's 2038 World Cup Campaign

 

Friendlies

 

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Two identical results, but one was impressive against 17th ranked Colombia, and the other disappointing against 67th ranked Paraguay.

 

 

 

The Groups

 

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Denmark looks like they have an easy group, drawing Qatar and hosts South Africa; we're drawn with holders Uruguay and Gambia, so 2nd place is the absolute minimum; Brazil, Bulgaria and Nigeria is a tough one, and potential banana skins for Brazil; and Ireland and Ivory Coast should qualify from their group, the defending finalists being gifted with an easy one here.

 

 

 

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A very weak Group E; Spain will likely leave it to Peru to try and get revenge over the Aussies 16 years later to qualify for the knockouts; Belgium should have no trouble; and Colombia likely the same.

 

 

 

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Another relatively tame group in I; Argentina get an easy one; as do Germany, and Congo will do their best to not get flogged.

 

 

 

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England get a tricky group, Holland does not. Portugal should get by their opponents, and Poland/USA will likely fight it out for the top seeding.

 

 

 

Notable Absences

 

#5 France: Finished 3rd in their qualifying group behind Scotland and Bulgaria.

#8 Italy: Finished 3rd in their qualifying group behind Sweden and Poland.

#22 Serbia: Finished behind Holland in their qualifying group.

 

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Scotland's 2038 World Cup Campaign

 

Group Stage

 

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Poor Gambia :( But our draw against Uruguay was quite good.

 

 

 

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As expected, Denmark, Brazil and Ireland top their groups, and the hosts keep their tournament alive too. The biggest shock here though was Thailand making it through to their 3rd straight knockout stages. Maybe it's not a shock?

 

 

 

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Morocco and New Zealand get through their weak group, as Peru indeed get their revenge over Australia. Belgium and Cameroon go through, joined by Colombia and DR Congo who beat Ukraine.

 

 

 

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Wales were disappointing, eliminated by Costa Rica and Japan. Apart from that, everything pretty much went as expected here.

 

 

 

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And again, nothing to report here.

 

 

 

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We get a tough but winnable tie against Denmark. Other enticing matches include Switzerland/Germany, USA/Portugal and Chile/Poland.

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Scotland's 2038 World Cup Campaign

 

Knockout Stages

 

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We're through, after a pretty commanding performance, even scoring after going a man down :D 

 

 

 

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The biggest result of the World Cup so far is the elimination of the defending champions at the hands of the hosts in an announcement to the rest of the field that the South Africans deserve to be here. Apart from that, not too much to write home about, except that defending finalists Ireland needed extra time to defeat Bulgaria, as Morocco did with Peru.

 

 

 

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It's been a horrible time for South American teams, as Costa Rica eliminate Argentina, who haven't won a knockout game since 2014. Sweden and Mexico look strong, and Portugal eliminate the US.

 

 

 

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Another hugely winnable tie for us here as we go up against the reigning finalists. South Africa go through one strong South American team only to run into a traditionally stronger one. Colombia could have the easiest run through to the quarter finals, but Germany could also stake that claim. 

 

 

 

Third Round

 

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It wasn't even close :eek: we're through to the last 8! A dubious penalty got us off the mark, but then we dominated them the rest of the game.

 

 

 

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Oh my god. South Africa have knocked Brazil out! Not only that, but Poland have also knocked out the English! What a fun World Cup so far :D 

 

 

 

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We now face a rampant Spain, and that could be where we exit. Meanwhile, South Africa have the opportunity to knock out a third straight South American team in Colombia to get the chance to at least play for a medal, Portugal and Mexico make for an interesting matchup, and a Polish side buoyant from knocking out England look to do the same against Germany.

 

 

 

Quarter Finals

 

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Completely outclassed, but to make the final 8 is an achievement in itself for the Scots. Did we get lucky with our draw? Maybe, but we did play the reigning finalists, and you can only play the team put in front of you.

 

 

 

I'll update the rest of the World Cup tomorrow, but I'm very pleased with how this has gone!

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2038 World Cup - The Rest

 

 

Quarter Finals

 

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South Africa continue their dream run, this time knocking out Colombia to reach the semis. Elsewhere, Portugal are looking string, and Germany needed penalties to get past Poland.

 

 

 

Semi Finals

 

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The dream is finally over, as Portugal defeat South Africa in a run that captured the hearts and minds of every South African everywhere. Portugal will meet Germany, but I think this is Portugal's to lose, they're probably the fresher side.

 

 

 

Final

 

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Spain flattened South Africa 5-0, but the tournament belongs to the Germans as they handle Portugal fairly easily!

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This is getting so interesting, really enjoying seeing the new signing method paying off given its simplicity, seems to have helped you kick on into that next strata of results. 

It's great seeing you begin to get results against those top teams and pulling off scalps so regularly that they maybe shouldn't be considered scalps anymore. 

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2038 Preseason

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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We've had a bit of a mini clear out, for a net gain of 9.5m. Most of that comes from the sale of academy keeper Shaun Kelly to 2 time defending Champions League winners Newcastle, so hopefully he gets some game time there because he's got a tonne of potential to go still. 

 

 

 

Transfers (In)

 

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Although it looks like we've spent 115m on new players, I really should stress that they are all heavily back ended deals. We didn't pay more than 3.3m up front for any of these guys. Will they be worth it? We'll see.

 

 

 

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Goalkeeper

 

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Central Defender

 

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Defensive Midfielder

 

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Left Wing Back

 

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A loss to Watford, but everyone in the side plays in a friendly so it wasn't like we were playing a full strength side.

 

 

 

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Very short odds again, it's ours to lose.

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14 hours ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

Damn, that's one heck of a World Cup for South Africa - at home as well! A shame that they couldn't get to that Durban final but certainly should do their rankings some good!  Can't wait to see how this season goes.

 

Yeah it's always cool when the home team makes a good run, and an unexpected one at that!

 

14 hours ago, Whalix said:

This is getting so interesting, really enjoying seeing the new signing method paying off given its simplicity, seems to have helped you kick on into that next strata of results. 

It's great seeing you begin to get results against those top teams and pulling off scalps so regularly that they maybe shouldn't be considered scalps anymore. 

 

I think this new way of signing is more realistic, because IRL it'd be something like "well he's playing often and performing well at that level, and he wants to play for us, maybe he can replicate it". It doesn't always work out, but that's part of the fun. The attribute analysis doesn't account for potential after all, and this is probably a little bit better at it. It's going to get a lot more complicated in the next edition of FM though, this is more testing the waters and seeing if it works.

 

Hopefully this is the season we can make it past the last 8 of a European competition :D 

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August 2038

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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The cleanout continues, with a net profit of 72k. So overall from this transfer we made nearly 10m, which I think is a successful window.

 

 

 

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Hearts deal an early defeat, but we are top to finish off the first month.

 

 

 

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Moving down the nation coefficient meant that we lost our 1st seeding for this season's Champions League, but we got the group I wanted. I want to beat Porto, or any Portuguese team really, as they're the ones who jumped us. Inter are pretty strong, but they haven't won the Serie A in 12 years.  

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September 2038

 

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We had to rest a few players against Inter and we paid for it, but we also put 3 past Galatasaray so it's not all bad.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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Lack of finishing did us in here in what is a very winnable group.

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October 2038

 

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Rankin has finally discovered some form, and as a result the goals are flowing, and again resting players against Porto costs us.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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We've gone from World Cup quarter finalists to Euro League B relegation candidates.

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November 2038

 

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We get revenge over Porto in a big way, and then a 3-0 win in Turkey ensures qualification for the knockout rounds no matter what :D 

 

 

 

National Team

 

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A strong finish, but our inability to convert our chances cost us in the end.

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December 2038

 

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We've monstered the league this month, and are pulling away as a result.

 

 

 

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We last played Atletico 7 seasons ago and lost 3-2 on aggregate, so I think we've gotten an amazing draw. There are some crazy draws here too, like City/Bayern, Liverpool/Real Madrid and PSG/Barcelona.

 

 

 

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Nope. Don't like this.

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January 2039

 

Transfers (Out)

 

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We've made a big loss on the transfers in the January window, a whopping 23.075m. Those are the risks you take though I guess.

 

 

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Celtic do beat us, but we have a 6 point gap at the top still.

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16 minutes ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

Good league form and going strong in Europe. Those First KO Rounds are incredibly tight ties and I'd say all of them are somewhat interesting! Could this be the year, dare I ask?

 

Everything is definitely working at the moment. I don't quite think we're there yet in terms of challenging for the title.

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March 2039

 

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The league is all but won at this stage I'd say, and we hold Atletico off to make the last 8 of the Champions League again!

 

 

 

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We play Bayern, who beat us 5-3 on aggregate 4 seasons ago in the group stage. We did draw at home with them though, so who knows?

 

 

 

National Team

 

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An opening loss to Germany in a ridiculous qualifying group.

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April 2039

 

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First of all: WOW!

 

It was a second strong side that took the field against Bayern, and they played really well, and we scored in the 90th to take it to extra time. 3 of our best players subbed on late, which meant we had fresh players of great quality and they proceeded to decimate the Germans, scoring all 4 goals in extra time to take us to the semis.

 

 

 

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We welcome Barcelona to Scotland in a tie we have every chance of getting a result from. Either Manchester United or Juventus wait in the final, teams I like my chances against. But we have Barcelona to worry about before we can even consider that.

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We've done it! Scotland is complete :D What was even better about that was everyone goal scored in the knockout stages was scored by a Scottish player bar one. 

 

 

 

Best XI

 

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Kyle Pearson  -  Jamie Brown  -  Jack Gray

 

 

A very Scottish dominated Best XI, which I'm all for :D 

 

 

 

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Record Breakers

 

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Award Winners

 

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Progress

 

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All Time Best XI Update

 

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3 Stenhousemuir sneak into the reserve Best XI, two of which were a part of the side that won the Champions League. Wes Lofthouse was brought in on loan in 2034 from United, and he now plays in the Championship for Brentford :lol: Perhaps the attribute analysis isn't the be all end all?

 

 

 

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Stenhousemuir are the weakest team to win the Champions League so far, but bear in kind the Best XI was selected on form over the course of the season. Using the attribute formulas of the theoretical best player for each position this season the average was 81.35, which is better than the Italians but that's it. Just goes to show that ability alone won't win you titles, you have to have players that are strong mentally and consistently good. The intangible "hidden" attributes

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Chapter IX: A Familiar Name, But Different Nationality

 

Austria Flag

 

 

 

 

 

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Austria is a nation whose league system I am very familiar with, mostly because of Zealand's current save streamed on Twitch and later YouTube. But I will not be gracing Floridsdorfer with my presence. Instead, it is the St. Pölten, recently relegated from the Austrian top division out for redemption. They are also the team in the lowest playable division with the best facilities, which is why I chose them. Plus their kit colours are cool :D 

 

 

 

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For the first time in this thread, no transfers will be made. How am I supposed to buy players on their previous season form if there are no data? :lol:

 

 

 

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We tick a couple of new countries off the list here, as Hungary and Slovakia border Austria. Lichtsteiner players will also be considered fair game as Liechtenstein also borders Austria. Let's see if Vaduz or the other Swiss teams can produce some gems. 

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30 minutes ago, Punch said:

What do you mean Australia and Austria aren't the same place? :seagull::lol::lol::lol:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

 

I was once in a taxi in New York and when I told him where I was from he said "Isn't that near Germany?" :lol: 

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2021 Preseason

 

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Some decent results here, and we win our only competitive match. I'm just looking forward to buying players next season so I'll get through this as quickly as I can :lol: 

 

 

 

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There is absolutely no pressure as we're predicted to go straight back up :lol: 

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23 minutes ago, shaunvamos said:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

 

I was once in a taxi in New York and when I told him where I was from he said "Isn't that near Germany?" :lol: 

Hahaha...brilliant! Did you say yes?

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