Azbycx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 A couple of days before each match, the game will predict the odds of each result occuring. Here is an example of my first match, Bournemouth vs Chelsea (My team). The odds are as follows: Bournemouth: 9-2 Draw: 13-5 Chelsea: 1-2 (fav) I'm trying to make sense of these numbers by converting them into percentages of all possible results. Meaning I'm trying to find out what is the percentage chance of Chelsea winning, drawing and losing. The three percentages should add up to 100%. I'm unable to figure out how to do this, could someone please explain to me how to interpret the numbers and how to derive my desired statistics? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Alari Naylor Posted December 10, 2011 SI Staff Share Posted December 10, 2011 Here's a pretty neat summary: http://www.isfa.com/betting-odds-probability.php In the example you give, Chelsea have a 66% probability of winning, Bournemouth have an 18.2% chance of winning and the draw has a 27.8% chance of happening. The reason these add up to some way over 100 is that the bookmaker needs a house edge in order to make a theoretical profit. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azbycx Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Oh that's exactly what i tried, but since the total exceeded 100% i thought i got it wrong. Erm and I don't get what you mean in your last paragraph :/ EDIT: Never mind, I think I got it, thanks! But then why don't you guys provide an estimate that adds up to 100 instead of using a bookie's version? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Alari Naylor Posted December 10, 2011 SI Staff Share Posted December 10, 2011 Because the only place you'll ever find odds on football matches is at a bookies! The odds are supposed to represent those from some anonymous bookie. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Marc Vaughan Posted December 10, 2011 SI Staff Share Posted December 10, 2011 Oh that's exactly what i tried, but since the total exceeded 100% i thought i got it wrong. Erm and I don't get what you mean in your last paragraph :/ What Alari is trying to indicate is that betting companies use odds which are slightly rigged in real-life - this ensures they are more likely to make a profit (this 'rigging' is called 'house edge' because well it sounds nicer to their punters than them saying we rigged things ); thus you wouldn't expect the odds to add up to 100%. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azbycx Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 Okay thanks Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pompey on Tour Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 A way that helps me to make sense of it is this................... Bournemouth: 9-2 Draw: 13-5 Chelsea: 1-2 (fav) If you put £2 on Bournemouth, you would win a further £9 if they won. Thus 9-2. If you put £5 on a draw, you would win a further £13. Thus 13-5. If you put £2 on Chelsea to win, you would win a further £1. Thus 1-2. I say a further as you always get your initial bet back when you win. The left hand number is what you will win if you bet the right hand number. The higher the left hand number (compared to the right hand number), the more remote chance of it happening - in the bookies opinion. If the numbers are very nearly the same i.e. 6-5 or they say evens then the bookies feel that it could go either way. Hope this helps. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafafloripa Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 You guys need to remind that in UK you have a long-standing betting tradition, which is sometimes non-existent in other countries. So, some of the terms used might be complicated to decipher. I know because it took me a while to get it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaSat Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ah. I've learned something new today I've never been able to get any meaningful information out of the odds presented in the game. In Norway the odds would have been presented like this: Chelsea: 1.5 Draw: 3.6 Bournemouth: 5.5 If you bet £2 on Chelsea, you will get a total of 1.5 x £2 = £3 in return. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Jones Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Decimal odds have become more common in the UK too, since the arrival of betting exchanges. The PC game has a display option for selecting this as preference, rather than the fractional odds, so it may be something we consider for future versions in FMH as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beardeye Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 on the subject of odds, can anyone tell me whether the AI take them into account in FMHios. i.e if the AI is heavy favourites are they likely to play attacking or if they are underdog to play defensively? more importantly, does the match engine 'reward' you for adapting to odds- i.e you are more likely to win playing defensively if you are an underdog but get punished for playing too attacking away from home? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Marc Vaughan Posted December 12, 2011 SI Staff Share Posted December 12, 2011 on the subject of odds, can anyone tell me whether the AI take them into account in FMHios. i.e if the AI is heavy favourites are they likely to play attacking or if they are underdog to play defensively? more importantly, does the match engine 'reward' you for adapting to odds- i.e you are more likely to win playing defensively if you are an underdog but get punished for playing too attacking away from home? The match engine doesn't look at the odds at all - HOWEVER they are based on the expected likely outcome of the match as seen by the game world (as irl) ... and as such often you'll find the favourites will start out more attacking etc. (although obviously the manager in control of their team does affect this sort of thing hugely, Kevin Keegan was never known for being defensive - regardless etc.) ... The 'odds news item' is just a creative way of trying to inform the user about the up-coming match, the comparison roughly of the two teams involved etc. as a warning in case they have no idea of the expected quality of their forthcoming opposition. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azbycx Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 I don't think the game engine would reward you like that, it isn't realistic. The odds are meant to simulate that of a bookie's prediction. In real life odds don't affect the outcome of the match. So i don't think it is like that in here also. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beardeye Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The match engine doesn't look at the odds at all - HOWEVER they are based on the expected likely outcome of the match as seen by the game world (as irl) ... and as such often you'll find the favourites will start out more attacking etc. (although obviously the manager in control of their team does affect this sort of thing hugely, Kevin Keegan was never known for being defensive - regardless etc.) I see, thanks. Does the match engine therefore take into account your tactical strategy (regardless of odds) to determine how effectively your team plays- so if the opposition is stronger and playing attacking you are more likely to succeed with a defensive or counter attacking approach? Similarly, is direct passing the correct choice in wet weather etc? I ask because the PC version would take these things into account and could tip the balance for success in each match, but obviously the handheld engine is simplified. I dont want to waste time tweaking settings for each match where i can just play attacking short passing in every game. it could be the difference between fitting in 3 matches on my morning commute, as opposed to 2, after all! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Marc Vaughan Posted December 12, 2011 SI Staff Share Posted December 12, 2011 I see, thanks. Does the match engine therefore take into account your tactical strategy (regardless of odds) to determine how effectively your team plays- so if the opposition is stronger and playing attacking you are more likely to succeed with a defensive or counter attacking approach? Similarly, is direct passing the correct choice in wet weather etc? The match simulates as realistically as possible - so yes all tactical choices, weather, player personalities, etc. come into play. I ask because the PC version would take these things into account and could tip the balance for success in each match, but obviously the handheld engine is simplified. I dont want to waste time tweaking settings for each match where i can just play attacking short passing in every game. it could be the difference between fitting in 3 matches on my morning commute, as opposed to 2, after all! The main thing between the iOS and the PC games isn't the way the game is simulated its the level of detail involved - the FM PC match engine simulates things using real-world physics modelled down to 1/8th of a second time slices (might be even higher now, not worked on that engine for a while now) ... FMH can't handle that level of detail and so simulates things to a lesser level using a more 'role playing game' approach to things rather than real-world physics (ie. where FM PC might model where the ball is placed between a players legs FMH knows the player has control of the ball and the level of control he has, but not precisely what inch of the pitch it is placed within, it knows within a yard or so of where it is which is enough to know if someone can try and tackle him and the likelihood it'll succeed etc.). So basically both give realistic feels and results - just FMH is viable on a handheld system. Hope that made sense and didn't get too geeky, Marc Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beardeye Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Hope that made sense and didn't get too geeky, Marc i think so! so in purely gamers terms, when playing the handheld version, it is still worth adjusting your strategy to suit each game as it will have some effect (just not as much as on the PC version). i.e playing direct passing in a defensive strategy when heavy underdogs in the rain gives you a better chance than attacking and short passing, for example? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Marc Vaughan Posted December 12, 2011 SI Staff Share Posted December 12, 2011 i think so! so in purely gamers terms, when playing the handheld version, it is still worth adjusting your strategy to suit each game as it will have some effect (just not as much as on the PC version). i.e playing direct passing in a defensive strategy when heavy underdogs in the rain gives you a better chance than attacking and short passing, for example? Yes of course - you should find the game models things as realistically as possible ... let me know how things go for you after you've played for a bit, I'd be very interested in your feedback. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.