[FM20] 2030: A Hidden Attributes Challenge

[Mikal]

As we come to the back end of FM20 I have lost a bit of interest in playing the game, as I’m sure have many others, so I wanted to try something different and something I’ve never thought of trying before – a hidden attributes challenge.

I was initially deciding whether to start a new save or turn the attributes off and continue my current save, which is what I have decided to do. Reason being, I’ve committed a lot of time to this particular save and there’s some players I’d like to see how the develop, as well as being 10 years into the future it makes things a bit more interesting with the influx of regens.

What I’m hoping to get from this is a look into how well the game can represent real-life by way of not being able to use clearly defined player attributes to make decisions – both by way of squad building and tactics.

Below is an example of what the player screen looks like:

I will:

-        View staff attributes. I don’t believe there is enough information on staff which would really help make staff decisions

-        Use in-game statistical analysis

-        Use coach and analyst reports

-        Use a regen facepack (basically all regen faces are replaced with real-life faces)

Limitations:

-        The game will only provide so much data, so certain aspects will be difficult to work out, such as player speed, but all adds to the experience

Ultimately this will be a save where I’m just looking to have a bit of fun with something I find quite interesting and inject a new lease of life into the game. We all know how easy squad building can be, so this will be interesting to see how I cope. I’m particularly excited to see how new signings turn out, be it they turn out to be exactly as you had hoped, but also when they don’t work out!

I would like to do a few ‘community interactions’ with this as well (if there’s interest), such as:

-        End of season player attributes reveal (an end of season vote where we guess the attributes of one player and then take a look)

-        Transfer in-put. I will narrow down a transfer target to a few targets, put up their stats, numbers, reports and we can see who would be a good signing.

When will the save start?

I have decided to resign from my current club at the end of the season (28/29), where I will go on a job hunt for a new club and that is when it will start. I would be expected to get job offers from the top leagues, and possibly the top teams. Each team will have their own set of expectations and even taking a top club now and not relying on player attributes will prove to be a challenge in itself.

So, let’s get to it.

[Mikal]

I have now walked away from my domestically dominant (but European lightweight) Lyon side, and with it I’ve left behind a £450m transfer war chest for the next manager.

Along the job hunt I was offered managerial roles at:

-        Chelsea

-        Sevilla

-        Villarreal

All of which I turned down in favour of the club I accepted.

Borussia Mönchengladbach seemed like an ideal start and logical next step in my current managerial journey on this save. They’ve got a good standing in the game, some good traditions, they’re in a top league with some competitive teams around them and to me felt the right club.

Before getting straight into it, I needed to take a look at how they performed last season and what their current crop of players have to offer.

An uninspiring season for BMG after the curtains have come down. Finishing below expectations and ultimately what cost the previous manager their job. No European adventure next season, so all focus will be on the league and the Cup.

Also don’t think I haven’t noticed Leipzig getting relegated – I’ll most likely be sniffing around some of their players once it’s time to look into the market.

The team did manage to get to the EURO Cup II final, losing 5-4 to West Ham.

Next let’s take a look at where we’re at with the team and the numbers they’ve put up across all comps last season. This will help form a basis of opinion on whether they’re at a level we need them to be at, or if reinforcements are required.

The first thing that jumps out are the three players on loan. This leaves us with four recognised first team defenders. Two of which are over 30’s CBs (albeit on the face of it they performed well). It’s unlikely I’ll delve too far into these defensive stats because simply I can’t really afford to get rid of any of them and I pretty much have to look to bolster numbers, so it doesn’t make much of a difference. They will be a useful reference point when looking at potential signings.

Looking at the team as a whole at a glance, it’s likely I’ll be lining up in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 for next season. That means two or three of these need to be good enough for our first team squad (across defensive, creative and attacking roles) and two or three for depth.

Bauman is the standout for me. Well-rounded with good attacking returns and impressive defensive stats – a shoe in for one of the central midfield spots. One of Zakaria or McKennie are likely to make way, particularly if funds are tight or need raising.

A reasonable distribution of goals across attackers. Jager, Zirkzee and Costa all look very impressive and certainly be factoring all 3 into the first XI. Wamangituka likely to go, especially given his high value which I’d like to cash in on.

Ozbek the least impressive, but at 20 yrs old it’s not a concern. Although will be if he continues to pick up those kind of card numbers.

Next couple of posts I’ll look at the current line up and identify positions I’d like to improve. Hopefully be able to look at some key targets.

[Mikal]

Having now had a quick chance to look at the team and what's to come, we can put down some markers of what we want to achieve this season.

As you can see, we've set out our domestic aims for the season. I'm hoping these can certainly be achievable with the current crop of players we have plus a few additions.

Next up was to view the squad as a whole and make some decisions. First it was to take a look at the squad depth and see where we're strong and where we lack the quality, or numbers. We’ve had a chance to look at the statistics of the team, now we can take a look at how these current crop will fit into the team and how we can shape up tactically for the following season.

As usual, we want to be focusing initially on the ‘Great’ players of which we have 7 players:

Takemoto – GK

I haven't spoken much about this guy, but he is noted as a Star Player and a German international to boot. 

Vagnoman – LB

Bauman – CM

Geideck – AMC

Costa – AMR

Jager – ST

Zirkzee – ST

So far we can start to build a picture of what positions we have in the XI and what’s left to fill. I think it’s clear that we need to focus on a 4-2-3-1 initially.

I will move Zirkzee over to AML as he’s capable of playing there and I want the Wonderkid Jager to be the main man up top.

This leaves us needing to fill: 1 x CM, 1 x RB, 2 x CB.

Let's take a look at the rest of the players and if any of them are at the required standard, which is a top 6 performer.

Which means we need to look at some key metrics for roles to be filled vs. players in last seasons top 6. This doesn’t include top performers outside of the top 6 sides – they will be identified as transfer targets should we need the position. But for now, we are looking to compare against the current best teams in the league.

Central Midfield

Bauman will be deployed as the creative central midfielder, with some licence to get forward because of his all-round midfield ability

Note: size of circle indicates passing accuracy % (larger = better passing %).

A quick midfield look shows Bauman as one of our best all-round midfielders able to contribute offensively and defensively.

So I’d like a complimentary midfielder next to him. This will most likely be an out and out more defensive midfielder, CMd or BWMd.

Key metrics to be interested in:

• Age; Max 30 – we are team which will be focused on youth, so not looking at over 30s
• Pass accuracy; min. 70% – a midfielder needs to be capable of completing their passes to not put the team under pressure with loose balls.
• Tackles/90; min 2.5 – they need to be engaging the opposition
• Tackles success rate; min 65% - we need them winning their fair share of tackles
• Interceptions/90; min 1.50 – positional awareness is important

Narrowing it down based on the Key Metrics only, we have two players who based on their previous season stats are comparable to the top 6 players:

Note: Note: size of circle indicates tackling accuracy % (larger = better passing %).

Zakaria & McKennie.

Secondary Metrics:

• Header success rate; min 65% – an inability to win headers in centre of the park can result in the opposition having a dangerous attack
• Pass attempts/90; min. 30 – shows (assuming pass % is good) an ability to move the ball around comfortably
• Chances created/90; min 0.50 – to provide impetus from deep on occasion

Adding in the Secondary Stats, McKennie again makes the cut, while Zakaria falls out. Of course these secondary metrics are nice-to-haves over requisites.

On paper, McKennie looks to be a good fit for our second CM position… Until we take a look at his PPMs. Runs with Ball Through Centre, Gets Forward Whenever Possible, Dives into Tackles. These are PPMs I do not want from my holding midfielder. They will leave gaps in the centre of the pitch and cause us problems particularly on the counter. In the end, he would be better suited to the more advanced midfield position I’ve currently assigned to Bauman.

Verdict: New player required at right price. We should be able to see it through with both Zakaria (who I still intend to sell) and McKennie if needs be.

Importance: 5/10

Defence

We don’t have any recognised RBs in the squad once the loans have ended, so this is a position we will have to fill by bringing in a new player.

Importance: 10/10

Next post I will take a look at our CBs, how they fare with the Top 6 and whether we need to buy for the first team, or buy for depth.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Mikal

[Mikal]

Time to look for one or two Centre Backs.

As previously mentioned, we won’t be getting rid of any purely because we only have two experienced players in the squad but we will need to bring one or two in. Again, we can look at some Key Metrics. This time I’m not going to measure specifically our two aging CBs against the top sides purely because I know we need to invest here, and if they show up in these metrics I know they’re still capable

Key Metrics:

Apps; min. 10 - gives more weight to the data

Age; max 28 - while CBs don't peak until late 20s into 30s, I generally want a player we can stick by for a few years

Wage; less than £90,000

Minutes/90; min 65 minutes – we are looking for first team quality, so they should be putting in close to first team minutes on average

Average Rating; min 6.7 – a fair indication of overall competency

Tackles success rate; min 80% 

Interceptions/90; min 2.50 

Header success rate; min 80% 

These metrics brought a large list of defenders, so I decided to start filtering in the secondary metrics.

Secondary Metrics:

Tackles/90; min 3 

Pass accuracy; min. 75%

Pass attempts/90; min 20 – a defender comfortable in possession can be crucial

After applying some further metrics and tweaking some of parameters to narrow the field a bit, I got down to around 100 players that I’d like to take a further look at.

My first review was to scout local, so Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga players that matched the key metrics I set up, of which there was 23.

Using Tackle Win % and Interceptions per 90 as our axis, with the size of the bubble representing Header Win % (three of the key central defensive metrics in my opinion), we can see how not only Elvedi and Vavro match up against comparable players, but also what their clear strengths and weaknesses are.

Elvedi has a very high Interceptions rate, top 30 player vs. under 30’s and under £100k across the major European leagues and good tackling rate (81%) and header win rate (81%).

Vavro is a polar opposite. 86% tackle win rate (close to top 30), huge 92% header win rate (joint 9^th), but a substandard Interceptions per 90.

A nice combination of CBs to have, really.

But let’s look at the rest of the players on this chart. First thing to note is none of these players are intrinsically bad. They’ve all met the minimum requirements across a number of different metrics (for e.g. there are plenty of players who excel in just one aspect but are not all-round proficient in what we’re looking for).

From the above graph there are two players who fall in the ‘Green’ zone – meaning they excel in both winning tackles and intercepting the ball.

Ryûji Araki

A 20 year old German at Hamburger SV valued at £1.2m. Worth noting, these stats are based on his performances in 2. Bundesliga as he helped HSV to promotion back to the Bundesliga. Still, I think he is definitely an interesting player, and one I’ll be sending my scout team to check out. I think he could be great value and one to keep an eye on.

Alejo Maziero

A 25 year old Argentinian who has just completed his debut season at Wolfsburg, valued at £20.5m. A premium option for sure and one I’m not sure if our budget will stretch to, but he fits our criteria nicely and I will be sending the scouts to report back.

For now, until I get reports back from our scouts, these two will be who I focus on for our CB positions by way of local talent.

It’s also worth taking a look at foreign based players to see if there are any players worth taking a look at.

Using the same metrics and some slight tweaks to bring the overall numbers down, we have the below (our CBs in orange).

Compared to the German comparison, our CBs get largely dwarfed by numbers. Denis does hold his own when it comes to headers won, mind.

At first glance there are a few anomalies here which can take our attention away from where we’d otherwise find good players. These anomalies are:

Inacio – 20 yrs old, Brazilian at Flamengo, valued £12.75m. 94% tackle success and 92% headers won

Nei – 26 yrs old, Brazlian at Ponte Preta, valued £2.4m. 92% tackle success and 91% headers won

Markisic – 20 yrs old, Serbian at FK Partizan, valued £1m. 91% tackle success and 83% headers won

As we can see, they’re plying their trade in the best leagues, however this doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of a transition to one of Europe’s top leagues. I will be giving these a scout as their stats look superb. Particularly interested in Inacio and Markisic given their age.

Removing these from the graph, we can focus our attention on some of the well-rounded CBs.

This shows around 10 players in the ‘Green’ zone. All of which I’ll send my scouts to.

 To summarise our CB search, I’ve sent scouts to the following players:

Araki - German

Maziero - Argentinian

Inacio - Brazilian

Nei - Brazilian

Markisic - Serbian

Adauto – Brazilian

Mathisen - Danish

Thiry – Belgian

Pina – Mexican

Van der Kraan – Dutch

Ivanskyi – Polish

Vinhas – Portuguese

I wasn’t too keen on the amount of players we were looking at not from a major league, which can often skew the data in that player’s favour, so I removed these players and added a couple more to the scout list:

Van Den Bergh – Belgian

Ilia – Cypriot

Also, the more I look at these graphs the happier I am with Denis being one of our two CBs for next season. I think he still has plenty to offer.

Edited September 7, 2020 by Mikal

[Mikal]

PLAYER SEARCH: FULLBACK (RIGHT)

We now know that a right sided fullback is paramount this window, preferably two. I’m open to loan options to see us through, but I would like permanent players if the right player is available.

Given our stature and our ambitions of finishing in the top 5 or 6, we need a player who is at, or potential to be, that level. With Vagnoman being such an offensively proficient fullback, I will be looking at more defensive minded fullbacks first, but will look into attacking fullbacks if this doesn’t result in anything concrete or a special player pops up we can't not take interest in.

The Key Metrics below are for a support type player. One who will focus their defensive duties first but capable in the transition and middle third support. Any contribution in the final third is a bonus.

Key Metrics: 

Apps; min. 10

Age; max 27

Wage; less than £90,000

Preferred Foot; Right or Either

Minutes/90; min 70 minutes

Average Rating; min 6.7

Tackles success rate; min 65%

Interceptions/90; min 1

Pass accuracy; min. 70%

Distance Covered/90; min 7km

I then removed over 23s from minor leagues. This produced the following players.

Note: bubble size indicates no. interceptions/90 ranging from 1 to 5

The orange bubble is Vagnoman for comparison of our best attacking fullback (while being very solid in his defensive duties as this shows).

Purple are local players.

I opted to use pass success rate and tackle success rate as the axis as I felt this represented the best of a support player. Proficient in defence and capable with the ball at feet. I could have used Interceptions/90 over tackle success rate, but I don't envisage the shift in positions would have been too drastic.

There are 5 players who fall into the ‘Green’ zone. All of which I will be sending a scout to. Cihan Bektas was one of my players at Lyon so I know how good he is and how good he can be. I don’t think we’ll be able to prize him away from Lyon.

I will also scout the local players who have turned up in these metrics as, like I mentioned in the previous post, they're not inherently bad players as they did make it through the min. requirement stage.

This is all the research I'll be doing on a right back for now as there weren't a great deal of options returned. I'll wait until I hear back from the scouts to see if any of the options are viable.

Next lot of research will be addressing the CM position.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Mikal

[Mikal]

PLAYER SEARCH: CENTRAL MIDFIELD

The final position I wanted to focus on was the defensive midfielder position, one that would be playing alongside Bauman in a midfield two.

What I realised through the other points of research was I was getting skewed data by overperforming players in poor leagues. This gave an unfair representation of where we should focus our scouting. What I decided to do was split the leagues each player is playing in into different tiers; 1, 2 and 3. These were organised based on current league reputation. 

What I did with the Tiers was to use the same metrics to measure the players, but increase the efficiency required per Tier (for eg if I set shots on target % to 60% for Tier 1, I would increase this to say 65-70% for Tier 2 and then a further increase for Tier 3). I also decreased the age range per Tier, so Tier 3 I’ll be focusing on under 21s primarily.

Tier 1

Note: size of bubble indicates no. Interceptions/90 ranging 1.1 to 4.62 | Purple = local players | Orange = own team players

I opted for Passing and Tackle Success Rate as my axis again as I felt this represented all players equally (as percentages often will do).

From the Tier 1 parameters we returned 52 players.

Within our ‘Green’ zone we hit about 15 players. These I will add to our scout assignments and as usual all of the Bundesliga players who have met these requirements, of which there are 4 (albeit Thiago was our player on loan).

I’ve added both McKennie and Zakaria to give a representation of how they’d far against other Tier 1 players. Zakaria actually scraps through with this 75% tackle success rate. McKennie only meets the Interceptions/90 criteria. So my previous opinion of thinking McKennie could do a job here for a season has fallen off and I’m more likely to be starting Zakaria assuming; 1) he doesn’t get sold, 2) we fail to buy a suitable player.

Tier 2

Note: size of bubble indicates no. Interceptions/90 ranging 1.5 to 4.68

A bit more of a mixed bag here. There are just 2 players who hit the ‘Green’ zone; Adauto and van der Kraan (also on our CB radar). I’ll be scouting these two, plus some of the anomalies; Inacio, Markisic (both also identified as part of the CB search, which is normal given our similar requirements) and Warmerdam.

No suitable candidates from Tier 3.

This brings us to the end of round one of scouting: identifying targets. We have sent scout reports for 36 players in total for 3 positions.

Next will be a return once we start to get our scout reports back. We’ll understand what our staff opinion is, if players want to join, if clubs willing to sell, the transfer fees and wage demands.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Mikal

[_Ben_]

This is fantastic! Will definitely be following. Love both the concept and the depth of your analysis.

Edited September 6, 2020 by _Ben_

[Mikal]

19 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

This is fantastic! Will definitely be following. Love both the concept and the depth of your analysis.

Thanks mate - a work in progress for sure. Hopefully I'll be able to go 1 day forward soon, ha!

[Mikal]

Third post updated with Centre Back player search.

[dagro06]

Wow, this topic is such in depth! I'm definitely following!

[Mikal]

Post 5 updated with right back scouting.

[Mikal]

Post 6 updated with CM target identifying. All round one of target identifying now done. All posts now will follow below as separate posts.

Appreciate I haven't even gone into transfer budget yet! That will come in next post when we narrow down targets.

[Mikal]

Scouting and Transfers: Centre Back

After a number of days have passed, and the scout reports have filtered on,I have almost but all narrowed down our CB search to the following (all of which I have started negotiations or have all agreed in principle):

Roméo Thiry

A player I bought at Lyon, but never really got around to using. But I do know what he is capable of and what his potential could be, and so do our scouts.

I am truly surprised they are willing to let him go for a total of £10m!

Alejo Maziero

One of the local talents that our searching brought up. The 25 yr old Argentine is available for a combined £24m from rivals Wolfsburg. A high pricetag and high wages. If he didn't meet our local talents critera, and also weakening a rival at the same time, I would probably walk away from this deal. But for now, he remains a consideration.

Ryúji Araki

Our 2nd local talent option. Newly promoted from 2. Bundesliga, but he put in some good numbers, enough to catch my attention anyway. Some nice positives from the scout report and the only concerning con is his lack of consistency, but at 20 yrs old this has time to improve.

The fee is good at a release clause of £8.75m and his contract demands are fine - however - he demanded to be a 'Star Player', which is what I've currently offered, but I doubt he will be if I sign him and maybe I have to deal with the windfall of that down the line.

René Ritter

Another from our Tier 2 search. Initially I wasn't going to pursue this option given the other options I had available, but he is coming in at a very good price and wage demands. Scouts rate him and give him a lot of room for growth. 

I am also looking into the cost of Nikolas Ilia, another Tier 2 performer (although back at Tier 1 side after his loan). He was in the Swiss league, same as Ritter, and they share similar stats.

I also have loan offers on-going for:

- Maxym Ivanskyi

- Emmanuel Pizzo (spent season just gone on loan with us)

If I pick up two or three permanent transfers from the list above I don't think I'll go ahead with the loan options.

All things considered, I think my preferred signing order will be:

1. Roméo Thiry; ability and price are too good to turn down

2. René Ritter; simply for price and potential, plus added depth, I think this could be a great signing

3. Ryúji Araki; a young player with room to grow and a very fair price, plus a local talent. Only downside is the Star Player issue, which I might just brush under the carpet and ignore

4. Alejo Maziero; while I'm all for strengthening ourselves and weakening our rivals, I think the overall cost of this transfer is just a bit too steep for us at the moment. Our current transfer budget (after a couple of sales) sits at £46m of which £15m would be used on signing him (about 33% of out budget).

[Mikal]

Scouting and Transfers: Right Back

We identified this position as one of the most important to address as we had no recognised right backs in the team. After our initial search for players we had 5 possible candidates we wanted to scout. A few of them weren't viable options, Mendez, while had a scout recommendation of 91, was too expensive. Lille wanted £49.5m and were not budging. Poncet I looked at but has been snapped up by Torino. Henry Marx was too expensive also, and the same can be said for Cihan. So, these are, for now, the players I will look at working toward signing.

Pedro Gil

The 5th and final player in our 'Green' zone and one that is affordable and one that we are able to sign if he chooses to join.

Franco Albornoz

Not a player initially showing up on our radar, because according to my data he didn't exist - but that's largely down to issues with the data collection and the problems I had with current team players at the time. Good player and affordable but interest from others.

Ladislav Cerny

Not a player on our radar because of his lack of appearances last season, but picked up by the scout who comes with good recommendations - and I went and had a look at his stats, albeit a limited number to go on, and they are sufficient. Transfer listed by Real Madrid for £7.5m, he is an option I'll consider

In order of preference, assuming no other, better targets come available: 

1. Pedro Gil; a player we spotted via our metric search, affordable and good recommendations

2. Franco Albornoz; highly rated, good price, can play in multiple positions.

3. Ladislav Cerny; not enough games last season to take the data in it's entirety. A consistent international is a positive.

[Mikal]

So here we are, a couple of weeks away from the end of the transfer window (just as the league games begin). The data has been collated, analysed and used to make transfer decisions. Let’s run through the final, confirmed transfers and how the squad will shape up for the upcoming season.

Centre Back

A rather different transfer window than previously expected. Firstly, referring back to our transfer targets on a previous update, we’ll look at whether the players identified joined.

Romeo Thiry – X He opted for a move to AC Milan. Gutting, but understandable.

Rene Ritter – X  I had planned to confirm this transfer, however Basel went through a takeover which meant all transfer dealings were cancelled. When they came out of the transfer embargo, they wanted at least 3 x as much as previously agreed. I walked away. He then almost joined Torino but got injured and failed medical.

Alejo Maziero & Ryuji Araki – with the two failed transfers above, we were left with these two options. I kept looking at the transfer and they just did not sit well with me ultimately. Maziero was expensive and big wages and Araki’s Star Player request was a little too entitled for my liking. So before I brought either of these two in, I went back to the data and had a look at other potential options. I scouted two more options:

Kenneth Kayode

A Porto player, but spent last season in Bundesliga. He also fared well in our original data metric search.

Jan Rasmussen

Another player with a years’ worth of Bundesliga experience. Came in well rounded on our initial search.

I then wanted to compare the four players and pick two to sign.

At a glance, Kayode looks great. Less games played, but as good or better than Maziero in all metrics, falling short by only 0.1 in both average rating and tackle success rate. At a quarter of the cost, yeah, I’ll take the chance.

By this time I’ve totally convinced myself I don’t want Maziero. He’s out. That leaves Rasmussen and Araki for my 2^nd CB signing.

Similar in all metrics. My transfer decision then came down to a simple breakdown. Who has the better experience? Rasmussen. Who would be happy with a lower amount of game time? Rasmussen. Could we sign either player at a later date for the same fee? Rasmussen unsure, Araki yes as he has a release clause. So that was that – Rasmussen signs and we keep an eye on Araki over the course of this year to see how he performs in the Bundesliga and we can always go back in another time and match the release clause again.

I also brought in Maxym Ivanskyi, another player we identified, on loan as further cover at CB.

Right Back

Moving on to our RB position, we narrowed these transfers down to three; Gil, Albornoz and Cerny. Albornoz opted to join Atletico Madrid which left Gil and Cerny as options as it stood.

Gil I wanted. He offered everything I was looking for at a price I was willing to pay and contract demands I was willing to meet.

Cerny, at £7.5m, was more than I was looking to spend on a backup/rotation option, however, after re-looking at the data, I couldn’t really find any better alternatives for the same value. At 24 he still offered time to grow as well as re-sale potential if it comes to that. In the end I went with him.

Midfield. A defensive, more composed midfielder is what we were after. My number one target was Mattias Jakobsen. I just really liked what he had to offer. Bundesliga player, International regular, hit all the metrics. I snapped him up for a total of £20m as soon as I saw he was available. No messing around with this one.

I also brought in Adauto, the young Brazilian midfielder, on loan as a backup option.

These were our transfers for the key identified positions. We also made signings outside these positions.

Thierry Boumal – a 19 yr old Wonderkid from Bayern Munich. I didn’t pick him up through the data, as I didn’t actually have any on him. The scouts spotted him and were giving him rave reviews, already first team quality level of reviews, as well as being totally affordable. We picked him up for a low price of £7m. Very happy with this purchase and I think we’ll have a future star on our hands here (or at least until a club pays the £70m release clause).

Total spend: £61m

 

To compensate for our spending we needed and wanted to offload some players. The following left the club:

Silas Wamangituka - £20m – Schalke 04

A player I wanted off the books. Nothing suggested he was good enough or would force his way into the team.

Weston McKennie - £16.5m – Eintracht Frankfurt

Planned to keep for depth in midfield, but handed in a transfer request and he’s gone to one of our rivals.

Nico Elvedi - £10.5m – Beijing Guoan

One of the old guard along with Denis Vavro, but at 33 yrs old, high wages and not featuring in my first team plans, I thought it was right time to cash in. Also the fact he had one year left on his deal and didn’t want to sign a new contract made it an easy decision.

Total income: £47m

We still have £28m in the bank and £300k p/w available for wages. A good spot if we need to dip back into the market. over the next couple of weeks.

A final look now at how the squad looks for this upcoming season.

I’m pretty happy with the depth. An injury or two to some key players could prove troublesome though. But for now, we'll start the season and see how things go.

[Mikal]

The transfer window has now officially shut.

We picked up injuries to three key players before the window closed in Vagnoman (LB), Costa (AMR) and Geideck (AMC); couldn’t have asked for a worse start to the season. I did look for short term replacements, but I couldn’t find any players I’d justify the fee for.

We have good depth and versatility at fullback, so I was hopeful we could last the 4 weeks Vagnoman would be out for. Both Costa and Geideck I’ve replaced with players in the squad – a good opportunity to see who is capable at playing at this level. Costa is out for a further 2 weeks and Geideck another 4.

We did make one additional signing on deadline day, a player picked up by our scouts.

Not a standout performer by any means, particularly at the level he has been playing at, but for the price, age and potential I was happy with this signing. We also received 40% of the profit as we originally sold him to Bayern – just over £2m, a nice added bonus.

A quick look below at how the season has started for us.

Comfortable Cup win. We’ve drawn FC Augsburg in the next round.

7 points from 9 is an excellent start to our first season here. We came from behind in both the first two games, and we were behind twice against Bayer Leverkusen before a late equaliser. Good resilience to the squad in that respect. It’s a very, very new defence with two new first team players (Kayode and Gil) and a stand in at LB, so a few defensive frailties can be expected at this stage of the season. Hopefully we can tighten this up and start to see some clean sheets. 

We’ll come back after around 10 games and take a look at how the squad are performing against some key metrics; any stand out players, under performers and any trends (which could be tactics related).

[Mikal]

Before the games start coming and going, we need to understand what we're trying to achieve to properly look at how our players are performing, I need to know what I’m expecting from them – individually and collectively. Otherwise I’ll just end up looking at the highest of each metric and assume that player has performed well, which may be the case, but they may also not be performing to our tactical style.

Are number of key concepts I’m looking for with my tactic:

Mentality

Positive. I think this encompasses all of what we’re trying to achieve at the level we’re at.

Out of Possession

Press (smartly) from the front. I believe this is a key aspect of top teams, the ability to put pressure on the opposition defence and draw out a mistake or turn over possession.

-            Standard line of engagement: Given we will have an AMR, AML, AMC and STC I feel at the moment they are sufficiently positioned to engage the opposition defence without being too far forward which can pull them out of the game entirely

-            Higher defensive line: as we look to press the opposition defence into errors, you’d expect an amount of ball clearances. I want our defenders to be in a position to win these challenges and get us going on the turnover.

-            Slightly more urgent intensity: standard for the Positive mentality

-            Prevent Short Goalkeeper Distribution

-            Stay on Feet: in the hope of forcing an error through pressure (and also by other players pressing opposition players without the ball and the open space). I would rather we try and force a turnover instead of actively trying to challenge and win the tackle

In Transition

-            Counter: I want us to attack with pace and numbers when the opportunity arises, particularly when we force the opposition into any errors

-            Keeper to distribute to defenders: I want us to build from the back in non-counter situations

In Possession

-            Play Out of Defence

-            Focus Play Through the Middle: We have excellent passes of the ball through the middle and I want them to be dictating the play, whether we play between the lines, over the top or down the flanks

-            Standard Passing Mentality: I want to see the range of passing we are doing naturally. Too many long, hopeful balls I’ll drop this down

-            Slightly Higher Tempo: the default option. Again will adjust based on tempo of the game

-            Be More Expressive: I will start with this, as I do want to play with flair, but it’s option I’ll monitor if players aren’t capable of pulling off the things they want to do, or if it results in too many turnovers

So what will we actually be looking at for each position:

CB

[major]

Tackle success rate| Interceptions made/90| Header success rate| Fouls committed/90| Mistakes/90| Mistakes leading to goal| Pass success rate

[minor]

No. key tackles/90| No. key headers/90

Fullbacks

[major]

Tackle success rate| Interceptions made/90| Distance covered/90| Chances created/90| Pass success rate| Cross success rate| Fouls committed/90| Mistakes/90| Mistakes leading to goal

[minor]

Assists| Key passes/90| No. key tackles/90| Header success rate| Dribbles/90| Shots/90| Shots on target %

Central Midfield

[major]

Tackle success rate| Interceptions made/90| Chances created/90| Pass success rate| Pass attempts/90| Fouls committed/90| Mistakes/90| Mistakes leading to goal

[minor]

Goals| Assists| Key passes/90| No. key tackles/90| Header success rate| Dribbles/90| Shots/90| Shots on target %| Distance covered

AMR/AML

[major]

Goals| Assists| Dribbles/90| Shots/90| Shots on target %| Offsides/90| Chances created/90| Pass success rate| Fouls against/90| Fouls committed/90| Mistakes/90| Mistakes leading to goal

[minor]

Pass attempts/90| Key passes/90| No. key tackles/90| Header success rate| Distance covered| Tackle success rate| Interceptions made/90

AMC

[major]

Assists| Shots/90| Shots on target %| Offsides/90| Pass success rate| Pass attempts/90| Chances created/90| Key passes/90| Fouls against/90| Fouls committed/90| Mistakes/90| Mistakes leading to goal

[minor]

Goals| Dribbles/90| No. key tackles/90| Distance covered| Tackle success rate| Interceptions made/90

STC

[major]

Goals | Shots/90| Shots on target %| Offsides/90| Pass success rate| Fouls against/90| Fouls committed/90| Mistakes/90| Mistakes leading to goal

[minor]

Assists - Dribbles/90 | Pass attempts/90| Chances created/90| Key passes/90| No. key tackles/90| No. key headers/90| Header success rate| Distance covered | Tackle success rate| Interceptions made/90

I haven’t put any markers against these yet as I’m not entirely sure what I am hoping for and/or could be expecting. I’ll get a general feel for this at around the halfway stage when there’s a good sample size to use for rest of the league plus other Tier 1 leagues.

Edited September 14, 2020 by Mikal

[Mikal]

We come back at the start of December after 14 league games. I used this date as I collated the mid-season data as the Brazilian league specifically has ended and if I wait too long then the data resets and I'll lose the option of scouting from that league with good data.

So let's take a look at our results.

Let's get the bad out of the way with first and that is the DFB-Pokal. The expectation was to reach the semi-final and we went out 3 rounds worse off. A really poor showing from us, particularly after beating them 4-1 in the league not long before. I did rotate the squad quite heavily, so can take my share of the blame, but our finishing was poor.

Now on to the good and the league run we've been on. Undefeated with some outstanding results.

After not keeping a cleansheet for the opening 6 games, I was worried our defensive acquisitions weren't quite up to the standard required defensively or maybe we had too many signings that hadn't gelled, so decided I needed to change something and I dropped both CMs down to the DM line. This has shored us up as well as the defenders starting to gel (we have had our fair share of injuries) and we've not conceded in the league for 8 games, remarkable stuff.

After the loss in the cup we picked up our biggest win of the season so far. We hit 3 past them toward the end of the first half over a 5 minute period, it was crazy scenes. 

I think the league form has saved me from some criticism by the board for our poor cup performance.

As you'd expect, to be undefeated you'd be there or there about at the top of the table, and as things stand we are top by 1 point. I don't expect us to keep this momentum going the entire season, but we do only have the league to focus on with no Europe and getting knocked out of the cup early. There are crazier things.

So let's take a look at our the squad are performing, numberswise. There's a lot of data to digest so feel free to have a read or ask any questions.

Ultimately we have a clear back 4: Vagnoman - Kayode - Rasmussen - Gil

Positive Outlooks:

• Gil is spectacular going forward and in defence
• Cerny has been putting in some excellent numbers when called upon
• Vagnoman carrying on from his strong displays of last season. High number of dribbles per game (2.68) as well as being fouled 23 times! 3rd highest in the squad
• Rasmussen has been a rock for us
• CB positions look solid in case of injuries

Areas for Improvement:

• Kayode's headers won % is awfully low for a CB
  • Action: he will go on specific 'Strength' training which focuses on Strength and Jumping Reach.
  • Action: consider forcing opponents inside where we should be able to crowd them out and avoid the aerial battles
• Brekalo has not shown he is not best at defensive duties
  • Action: consider not bringing him on to run down the clock
  • Action: replace him (he has handed in a transfer request so we will have to replace him)

These are just those that played in the CM or DM positions. As you can tell, we really just utilised two players; Bauman and Jakobsen.

Positive Outlooks:

• Bauman is the man. I have chopped and changed his role already this season while I try to settle on something, and for the past 2 or so games he has been playing as the Roaming Playmaker and I have been extremely impressed. 
• Jakobsen has come in and done the job I wanted of him. He doesn't out rank Bauman on a lot of metrics but where he does, or is comparable, is where I want him and the team need him to: Passing, tackling interceptions
• Juan Lopez is a surprise package. I didn't expect a great deal from him but in his limited games he has put in some impressive numbers. He looks very well-rounded

Areas for Improvement:

• Sascha Thurk needs moving on - something he agrees with as has handed in a transfer request also. He clearly won't get the minutes and I'd rather we held the cash
  • Action: sell
• There is not a lot of depth here and an injury to Bauman or Jakobsen could be dangerous
  • Action: buy

Positive Outlooks:

• Jager is goals. Currently the leagues top scorer but has unfortunately picked up a knock and will be out for a month
• Costa is an excellent playmaker. By far and away above average for playmaking abilities

Areas for Improvement:

• Barco's time has run out. We tried to sell in the Summer but no suitors. I will try again in the Winter transfer window as I want him off the squad and off the wage bill
  • Action: sell ASAP
• Zirkzee not as influential as I had hoped. 6 goals in 14 is not an awful return from someone predominantly in the AML position, and 9 goal involvements in 14 is probably acceptable.
  • Action: probably nothing, but with Jager injured I'll play him at ST
• Boumal hasn't had the impact I was hoping for. Still a youngster (it says he's 24 on that screenshot but that's just me forgetting to amend, he's 19), and has played a lot of games but just doesn't seem to be scoring or creating.
  • Action: I'll continue to give him games as I believe he will come good. He'll play mostly at AML where I'll try and get overloads on the opposite side to avoid him being crowded by opponents and to allow him some space to work in off the ball.
• Hasan has a lot of explosive qualities as a wide player, but really lacks any ability to create. Seems to get the ball, run and then run out of ideas. Decision making needs to improve.
  • Action: his strength is dribbling so when he plays I wouldn't want to focus attacking play down the opposite flank, but instead to get additional bodies in support of his runs to give him simple passing or crossing options

As we come up to the transfer window I'll begin to identify some targets we can take a look at over the course of the window. 

We do have transfer and wage budget left over but our finances make for grim reading at the moment. We're losing a fair chunk every month, so it may be a case of selling just to keep the finances in the black, but with a hopefully European finish in the league, and the added revenue from that, we can continue to plan to build the squad for our European ventures.

[Mikal]

As we enter the Winter Transfer Window, it's time to look at positions for improvement:

• Central Attacking Midfielder: First Team
  • We have a lack of goals and assists from the central area of the pitch and is a position I’d like to focus on
• Left Fullback: Backup
  • With Brekalo likely leaving we’ll need a backup LB, preferably inexpensive
• Roaming Playmaker: Backup
  • I’m not sure we have a suitable player to come in if Bauman is injured or needs a rest. If no player identified or attainable I’ll need to consider a change in tactic for the games we don’t have Bauman

Identifying Players - The Key Metrics: Attacking Midfielder

Referring back to the previous post where we looked at the metrics we’ll be judging our players on, I will use these to narrow down some targets.

Using the data available, I’ve put together a half-baked “Expected Goals Involvement/90” metric (xGI/90). This is Goals/90 + Chances Created/90.  

Now to look at the initial set of metrics to start narrowing down our search.

Wage | xGI/90 | Shots/90 | Shots on target % | Pass success rate | Pass attempts/90 | Key passes/90 | Dribbles/90 | Average Rating

 And will increase/decrease through the Tiers.

 Tier 1 Targets

Size of Bubble = Pass Accuracy % |Purple = Bundesliga players | Green = top targets | Orange = secondary targets | Red = backup targets

 Focusing our attention initially on the top targets, we can compare how they match up against each other against a number of metrics.

There are some things that jump out:

• Fernandez looks to be utilised in a deeper role given his proficiency in the defensive stats, which does make his attacking contributions (notably chances created) quite impressive. I think overall he would be better suited to a central midfield position given his excellent all-round ability.
• Our own players, Geideck and Costa have a low xGI/90 despite having some solid stats outside of this, notably Costa (who I have been using as an AMR mostly, but as he is able to play, and has played, centrally I wanted to compare)

 Stand-out targets from Tier 1:

• Mauro Bonetti
• Valdo
• Yago Cinquemani

 As mentioned above, while I would love to look at signing Fernandez, I believe he’d be wasted as an Attacking Midfielder (and we're probably priced out).

Jhonathan Daza and Rúben Torcato also look like they could be viable rotation options if their sale fee and wages are on the lower end.

Tier 2 Targets

 

Size of Bubble = Pass Accuracy % |Green = top targets | Orange = secondary targets | Red = backup targets

Comparing the top targets with each other

• Josias looks to put in some great attacking numbers, but appears to be used more as a striker given his low pass numbers. He has a huge xGI/90.
• Fabian Rivas, much like Harrison Fernandez, looks by stats to be playing in a deeper role. Good numbers and maybe one to look at for the Roaming Playmaker position.

Stand-out targets from Tier 2:

• Josias (although may be better suited as a forward)
• Ian Houben
• Erick Garcia

 I like the look of Rivas, but for a deeper position, so will assess him for that as we come to it. Tomecak could be worth investing in if his price is low.

 The only Tier 3 option which I will look at is Erich Posselt of Bayern Munich (currently in the second team). Not sure he is right for us at the moment though.

 Finally, we can compare the stand-out targets from Tiers 1 & 2.

 

I do still like the look of Bonetti and Valdo from Tier 1. And Houben and Josias from Tier 2.

The question is whether I like them more than I like the options we currently have.

Once the scout reports are back I can take another look, firstly on who we can afford and secondly if they will actually improve our squad vs. financial cost to bring them in.

Edited September 27, 2020 by Mikal

[Mikal]

Identifying Players - The Key Metrics: Roaming Playmaker

The initial set of metrics to start narrowing down our search.

Age | Value | Wage | Average Rating | Pass Success % | Pass attempts/90 | Chances Created/90 | Key passes/90 | Dribbles/90 | Tackles/90 | Tackle Win % | Interceptions/90 | Distance Covered

Tier 1 Targets

Purple = Bundesliga players | Green = top targets | Orange = secondary targets | Red = backup targets

I have combined Chances Created/90 and Key Passes/90 to make a ‘Pass Creation Contribution/90’ metric, and I’ve combined Tackles/90 and Interceptions/90 to create a ‘Defensive Contribution/90’ metric.

A LOT of Bundesliga players have popped up here, which is good, but majority fall at the wrong end of where I will be focusing our initial search.

Comparing the top targets.

The yellow highlighted metrics are what I consider the critical ones for this role.

Stand-out targets:

• Kento Ikeuchi
• Franck Ferry

Tier 2 Targets

Green = top targets | Orange = secondary targets | Red = backup targets | Yellow = Tier 3 target

Peter Beyer was the only viable option from Tier 3, and because he’s at RB Leipzig (2. Bundesliga), it makes sense to include in the Tier 2 comparison.

Stand-out targets:

• Peter Beyer
• Zeljko Bozic

Comparing the stand-out targets from the two tiers.

By way of backup/rotation option I don’t think we’ll go wrong with any of them.

Ikeuchi will likely be my #1 target, followed by Beyer then Ferry and finally Bozic.

[cmason84]

Incredible amount of detail in this. As someone who is using metrics graphics (radars) myself for my save, how are you creating the bubbles? If you can put me onto a link, that's fine, I'll be happy to read it.

[Mikal]

16 hours ago, cmason84 said:

Incredible amount of detail in this. As someone who is using metrics graphics (radars) myself for my save, how are you creating the bubbles? If you can put me onto a link, that's fine, I'll be happy to read it.

I've stopped playing this save now but I plan on starting up the same for 21. Can't wait to use some of the new data metrics they have in the game.

I tried to use radars as well, but I could never get them to create properly due to the vast difference in axis I wanted to use, felt like I would have had to create my own by hand, so gave up on that in the end.

For the bubble chart I initially used Excel, but they look utterly horrific and in the end I settled on using a website (piktochart.com) to create them as I really like how they look. For the most part it's quick, easy and quite customisable.

[cmason84]

36 minutes ago, Mikal said:

I've stopped playing this save now but I plan on starting up the same for 21. Can't wait to use some of the new data metrics they have in the game.

I tried to use radars as well, but I could never get them to create properly due to the vast difference in axis I wanted to use, felt like I would have had to create my own by hand, so gave up on that in the end.

For the bubble chart I initially used Excel, but they look utterly horrific and in the end I settled on using a website (piktochart.com) to create them as I really like how they look. For the most part it's quick, easy and quite customisable.

You might be interested in this site Soccer Players Radars. It's what I've chosen to use when creating my own radars for my blog series https://afmoldtimer.home.blog/

I'll take a look at piktochart.com and see what I make of it.

I'm really looking forward to the data metrics too, it will be interesting to see what they include. I've a bit of a wish list so it will be interesting to see what they include.

[Mikal]

29 minutes ago, cmason84 said:

You might be interested in this site Soccer Players Radars. It's what I've chosen to use when creating my own radars for my blog series https://afmoldtimer.home.blog/

I'll take a look at piktochart.com and see what I make of it.

I'm really looking forward to the data metrics too, it will be interesting to see what they include. I've a bit of a wish list so it will be interesting to see what they include.

Ah that radar site looks really useful actually, I'll definitely give that a play with at some point, cheers! I'll take a look at your blog as well see how you've integrated it and other metricy stuff which is always interesting! Maybe nab some ideas . How have you found using and maintaining a blog? 

Yeah I'd love for them to include more than xG, but I'm not holding my breath, but I'd be delighted even if it does just end up being that.

[cmason84]

I played ahead and maintained a save file with a different name so that I could keep playing and have the save for writing when I was able to. This means that writing didn't delay me playing the game. I just finished my blog this week, but I actually finished that save back in February. You'll notice the progression in my graphics (hopefully!) - some of them I really like and I think I finally nailed the graphics of player metrics by the last blog in terms of how I wanted them to look. I have been taking some strong influence from StatsBomb.

1 minute ago, Mikal said:

Ah that radar site looks really useful actually, I'll definitely give that a play with at some point, cheers! I'll take a look at your blog as well see how you've integrated it and other metricy stuff which is always interesting! Maybe nab some ideas . How have you found using and maintaining a blog? 

Yeah I'd love for them to include more than xG, but I'm not holding my breath, but I'd be delighted even if it does just end up being that.

 

[Mikal]

1 hour ago, cmason84 said:

I played ahead and maintained a save file with a different name so that I could keep playing and have the save for writing when I was able to. This means that writing didn't delay me playing the game. I just finished my blog this week, but I actually finished that save back in February. You'll notice the progression in my graphics (hopefully!) - some of them I really like and I think I finally nailed the graphics of player metrics by the last blog in terms of how I wanted them to look. I have been taking some strong influence from StatsBomb.

 

I think that's a fair idea. I may look at having two concurrent saves going forward, one to focus more on the analytical side, particularly if writing up, it is time confusing. And one just to play through when you don't want to have to worry about logging data and whatnot. Your player profiles are really cool, the radar really does help. Did you making any of your own metrics, combining some to create a more rounded metric to use? Particularly enjoy your team comparison graphs as well. I like looking to places like StatsBomb for inspiration, there's a couple accounts on Twitter I follow where they post really well presented data graphs like these.

When you were looking at transfers, did you go by data, or find a player you liked the look of by way of attributes and see what his numbers were?

[cmason84]

21 hours ago, Mikal said:

I think that's a fair idea. I may look at having two concurrent saves going forward, one to focus more on the analytical side, particularly if writing up, it is time confusing. And one just to play through when you don't want to have to worry about logging data and whatnot. Your player profiles are really cool, the radar really does help. Did you making any of your own metrics, combining some to create a more rounded metric to use? Particularly enjoy your team comparison graphs as well. I like looking to places like StatsBomb for inspiration, there's a couple accounts on Twitter I follow where they post really well presented data graphs like these.

When you were looking at transfers, did you go by data, or find a player you liked the look of by way of attributes and see what his numbers were?

I created Key Headers/90 I think, but definitely goal involvement from G&A/90 and also goal conversion (goals/shots as a %).

When it came to recruiting players, I largely looked at attributes and then looked at their data, but their data didn't necessarily put me off signing them per se. I may go attribute-less in the future, but I would like more data to be able to do that than we currently have.

I strangely really enjoyed looking at the league analysis rather than just writing up the traditional save update. It was really interesting to see how team playing styles evolved.

In my head, I'm working on developing a spreadsheet which will help me automate a lot of player data analysis going forward to make this much easier/faster and also have it set for various player types by position. Watch this space for that if I have time!

Edited October 30, 2020 by cmason84